Spydertrader Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
As promised, I have split off the Futures trading Discussion into its own
Thread in an effort to minimize the level of confusion between Hershey Equities
and Hershey Futures Trading. Jack now refers to Equities as PVT and Futures
Trading as SCT. However, we do not concern ourselves with SCT at the present
time. In fact, SCT remains far removed from the place where we begin our
Journey. While we may consider SCT as our destination, The Journey begins with
the FTT (Failure To Traverse).
What is the FTT? And why is it so important? The following posts provide a brief
overview of how the FTT operates. Please review the posts (a few times to make
sure you have things straight in your mind) before continuing further.
Post One
Post Two
Post Three
If you haven’t read any of the previous Hershey Futures Threads, don’t worry.
You can quickly catch up. In an effort to get yourself “up to speed” (so to
speak), review the end of Journal Two beginning with
This Post. However, I do not recommend jumping right into futures
with both feet without some degree of trading experience. In order to build a
strong foundation of understanding with respect to the Hershey Methodology, I
recommend beginning your Journey with Equities.
Beginner Level Methods
Intermediate Level Methods
Advanced Level Methods
Although all methods do contain overlap, I feel it is best to start at the
beginning, rather than, struggle through the material. No shortcuts exist. Do
yourself a favor and build a strong foundation for success by avoiding the
temptation to jump ahead. The market will be waiting for you – irrespective of
your level of preparedness. As a result, I continue to recommend an abundance of
caution – at every level of your trading education. In addition, everyone learns
at a different pace. No need to rush. You have plenty of time. Please use it
wisely.
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Additional Background
I have included the following links as Background Material for those
individuals requiring additional clarification on the topics discussed.
Background Material
Trend Lines
Determining Trend
Question for Grob109 / Hershey [1]
Question for Grob109 / Hershey [2]
Question for Grob109 / Hershey [3]
SCT Q & A
The Stochastic Indicator
Channels Document
Before proceeding any further, please review the .gif files located within the
Determining Trend Thread linked above. If you find after doing so you still have
difficulty drawing trend lines, then move to the Channels Document. The rest of
the background material can wait for another time – when you need to ‘fill in
the blank spaces’ some time in the future.
Mini Glossary (Common Acronyms Used)
FTT – Failure to Traverse
CCC – Congestion, Convergence, Centering
HVS – High Volatility Stall
LTR – Left to Right
RTL – Right to Left
LTL – Left Trend Line
RTL – Right Trend Line
Flaws – Not an FTT (examples: Hitch, Dip, Stall, HVS, CCC)
FBO – Failure to Break Out of a channel
BO – Break Out of a channel
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We Begin .....
The FTT works in any market, on
any time frame (provided sufficient liquidity exists).
The goal of this Journal will be to prove the above statement by process of
transference. Unlike other past attempts at Futures Discussions with Respect to
The Hershey Methodology, I do not plan to separate out Beginners, Intermediates
and Experts. Instead of Rockets and Icebergs, I plan to break down the
methodology by tool set. In other words, we begin at the Beginner level –
drawing trend lines and searching for the FTT. As we all gain the knowledge
needed and the expertise required to proceed, only then will we add additional
tools. I plan to add one tool each month until all five tools have made their
way into the toolbox.
As such, during the first few months of 2007, the Journal will have more of an
educational feel to it. I encourage everyone to ask questions, post charts,
create input or provide commentary consistent with the goals outlined above.
Later in the year, I plan to shift the focus toward execution. Although
education remains an ongoing process, shifting the focus to the implementation
of the methodology provides a logical conclusion to everyone’s efforts.
My goal includes making this process as clear and concise as possible. If at any
time, someone feels a post requires additional clarification, please bring those
comments to my immediate attention. Along the same line of discussion, I expect
everyone to continue the long-standing tradition of respecting the other
contributors to the thread. Over the last two years, the discussion has remained
relatively flame free providing an environment conducive to learning. I expect
that trend to continue throughout this thread as well, and I appreciate
everyone’s efforts toward that end.
Now, without any additional delay, let us begin our Journey …….
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The Beginning
The Beginning …….
We begin by creating a chart of the S & P Futures Contract (ES07H Currently)
using a five-minute time frame (fractal). In addition to price, we want to
include volume bars as well. In addition, please place a 20 period Simple moving
Average in the price window (referred to later as 20 SMA). Add nothing else at
this time. Your chart is ready to begin.
If you have a charting platform, which allows you to manually scale the price
pane, set the scale to two (2) ES points. If possible, move the entire section
of price bars to the left in order to have a section of ‘white space’ to the
right of the price bars. Extend any channel lines drawn into this area.
Using the instructions outlined in the links above, locate “Point Three” Trends
and draw in the channel lines. Within those channels, look for the FTT
formation. Follow price from that point. Once you locate an FTT and begin to
follow price from that location, look for three possible ‘End Effects’ and take
appropriate action.
1. Another FTT (Reverse)
2. An FBO (Exit)
3. A BO (Hold)
At this time, one should only monitor the markets looking for the FTT and
following price action. No need for a simulator. Doing so begins the process of
‘Training the Brain’ to spot the FTT’s quickly and easily in the future.
Monitor Volume changes as well during this time.
This Attachment explains the Gaussian Formations we expect to see during
periods of changing Price. In addition to the FTT formations, make sure you
understand the Gaussian Formations as well.
Each day, I plan to post a copy of my own channels and the FTT locations for
comparison.
Good Journey to you all.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Thank you
Spydertrader
I, personally like to thank you for starting this journal. I'm grateful to Jack,
Mak and everyone who contribute/share so generously.
I want to wish everyone A Prosperous New Year, good health and continued success
in trading.
Spydertrader. My experience attempting to trade NQ with channels is that when it works it works spectacularly well. But also that it didn't work that well often enough to make money consistently. The difficulties I found were that all too often an FTT isn't (a higher high or lower low follows), a better entry often follows a right side breakout, and that drawing channels obscures the perception of the fundamentals that higher lows make an uptrend and lower highs make a downtrend, regardless of what the highs are doing in an uptrend and the lows are doing in a downtrend. Often I think I see the method being faded because it is so widely advocated. But I do look forward to your tutorial and possibly learning the error of my ways. Best regards. Mike.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Spyder,
It is year four for me with Hershey. His methods have transformed my trading
entirely.
The Camtasia of 8/24/06 is a very important video. It shows the YM leading the
ES very clearly, as well as many other things.
Thank You for having the fortitude to do this for the third year, you are by far
a more patient man than I am. I look forward to seeing the progress of the
Hershey methodology in futures.
Best Regards
Oddi
__________________
Once you get a good understanding of your craft, all the masters say the same
things in different languages.
link?
Quote from oddiduro:
Spyder,
It is year four for me with Hershey. His methods have transformed my trading entirely.
The Camtasia of 8/24/06 is a very important video. It shows the YM leading the ES very clearly, as well as many other things.
Thank You for having the fortitude to do this for the third year, you are by far a more patient man than I am. I look forward to seeing the progress of the Hershey methodology in futures.
Best Regards
Oddi
Let the Games Begin !
Spyder
superb work and effort on your part. Your patience and professionalism in your
comprehensive threads and posts to date are a blue print for the deliverance of
quality information and education to the masses. Most commendable and
appreciated
IRL
SWEET!
My biz endeavor (~$400MM) of the last 12 months has finally closed as of this
week (ie. now open for biz). The first $1B transaction will go on in a few
weeks. In other words, I can't wait to get back to contributing and trading. I
have a boatload more tools to get out...
Happy New Year...
MAK!
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Thanks for the journal and Happy New Year to everyone
Camtasia question: I downloaded a file and it opened in the windows media
player but i get only audio.
How do i get the video ?
Quote from hypostomus:
Spydertrader. My experience attempting to trade NQ with channels is that when it works it works spectacularly well. But also that it didn't work that well often enough to make money consistently.
Quote from jtnet:
link?
Quote from Joab:
I downloaded a file and it opened in the windows media player but i get only audio. How do i get the video ?
__________________
Corrected Link
The corrected
The Stochastic Indicator link for Background Material posted above.
- Spydertrader
__________________
In the spirit of introductions, I wanted to share this
quote from Jack:
For making money, everyone has a choice: A. learn when you cannot make any
more money in a price changing trend or B. do some half a$$ed "fix" for your
ignorance. In B, the most popular substitutes for knowledge and skill are money
management and risk management and edge trading.
Making a lot of money requires knowing down cold how channels work.
That's got to be one of the most blunt condemnations of "conventional wisdom"
(as Jack sneeringly refers to it) that I've come across. Strangely, after
spending months studying what he and Spydertrader say, I'm starting to see the
truth in it.
The Hershey system that Spydertrader is trying to teach us isn't just another
indicator or tool in the box, but a whole new way of looking at trading.
I can't wait.
Excellent Observation
Quote from foible:
The Hershey system that Spydertrader is trying to teach us isn't just another indicator or tool in the box, but a whole new way of looking at trading.
__________________
Quote from oddiduro:
Spyder,
It is year four for me with Hershey. His methods have transformed my trading entirely.
The Camtasia of 8/24/06 is a very important video. It shows the YM leading the ES very clearly, as well as many other things.
Thank You for having the fortitude to do this for the third year, you are by far a more patient man than I am. I look forward to seeing the progress of the Hershey methodology in futures.
Best Regards
Oddi
Thanks for your good work guys. Keep it up!
If it's true that YM has been leading ES, then wouldn't it be easy to push the thinner index in order to obtain better prices for the broader one, if most traders recognize the relationship already?
__________________
do the hansa
trading blog
Quote from Bearbelly:
I downloaded the video and found it very interesting but did not see any evidence that YM leads ES. Are you sure you got the right date?
__________________
Once you get a good understanding of your craft, all the masters say the same
things in different languages.
Thats not exactly proof but I know Spyder is going to say that this is irrevelant to the first part of this thread so I will drop it for now but I am looking forward to something definitive on this later.
I thank all who have learned and been gracious in sharing their hard earned
knowledge with us! It is a gift and commendation of your character.
I look forward to this year's journey! I am going to try to take my "wifey"
(hope ES ) and oldest daughter
along... we'll see how it goes...
The Syllabus
The Syllabus
January 1 - ES Chart: Price, Volume, Channels and the FTT
February 1 - YM Chart: The YM leads the ES?
March 1 - STR / SQU (Stretch - Squeeze)
April 1 - DOM (Depth of Market) / Time and Sales
May 1 - TIC Charts and Two Pairs
June 1 - Flaws Summary
July 1 - Putting it all together
Aug 1 - Real Time Video Example Trades
Sept 1 - Dec 20 - Final Exam
We will discuss 'Flaws' (and how one differenciates between the
various types of flaws) as the opportunities present themselves.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Spydertrader,
Looks like a great program, looking forward to it all. Glad to see some of the
original crew posting and taking part as well.
Regards - EZ
Looks like a fantastic syllabus. I'm looking forward to 2007 with great
enthusiasm! Have a great new year's everyone.
PS- Thanks again for the chat today, Spyder!
-Eric in Tucson
Spydertrader,
Thankyou...
I will start reading all the material from page #1 and get a good
foundation for what your talking about.
Once again thank you!
snarlyjack
Quote from Bearbelly:
Thats not exactly proof but I know Spyder is going to say that this is irrevelant to the first part of this thread so I will drop it for now but I am looking forward to something definitive on this later.
__________________
Once you get a good understanding of your craft, all the masters say the same
things in different languages.
Thanks and another journal to read. I must be a slow reader. Sigh!
FTT
In line with the agenda set out by Spydertrader, I would like to clarify how to recognise FTTs real time. I've been following Spyder's ES charts ever since he started posting in November and reading everything I could lay my hands on but the confusion still exits. Please note, I have intentionally kept the chart simple with as fewer channels as possible. Real time I draw the dominant channels as well as traverses. I would welcome comments.
FTT
My confusion is here, the price makes higher high but it still falls within the definition of an FTT. What's the clue realtime?
"An FTT by any other name would still be a head-and-shoulders."
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
My impression is that "ftt" is a new name for "bounce off support/resistance." Is that alright?
Things will be a bit different here then they were in the equities journal.
We have noticed how imperative equities is as a baseline to futures. What you
get out of futures that is so important is holding through all that is going on.
We have witnessed the share of participants who unfortunately come to believe
that they are one piece of the puzzle short of having it "work" for them.
Unfortunately this is contrary to what we have come to understand as a "working"
framework. The point is that if something is not clear, chances are it has been
hashed and rehashed dozens of time. I for one know that we might very well spend
the next 6 months going through what is an "FTT" and all of it's features.
Although the rehashing is of great benefit to the community, ultimately, it is
on the shoulders of the trader to sort out which context fits their current
knowledge base. Everyone will have to put on their thinking caps and sort out
"what is what"? A hypo perspective is somewhat healthy as long as it is civil. I
will largely be sticking to the agenda so all other Q's will be deferred until
their appropriate time... Unfortunately, if you have a history of trolling
neither time nor energy will be spent on addressing your questions...
Regards,
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from doli:
My impression is that "ftt" is a new name for "bounce off support/resistance." Is that alright?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
MAK. Every prince confident of his throne can tolerate, nay, must have, a
court jester.
"We begin by creating a chart of the S & P Futures Contract (ES07H Currently)
using a five-minute time frame (fractal). In addition to price, we want to
include volume bars as well. In addition, please place a 20 period Simple moving
Average in the price window (referred to later as 20 SMA). Add nothing else at
this time. Your chart is ready to begin."
Here we unwittingly fall afoul of the Hypostomean Hypothesis, which is that the
key core rules must perforce test with positive expectation if the supporting
supplementary rules are to increase that core expectation to a surety of easy
wealth. From a recidivist backtester's perspective, we just accepted two rules
(five minutes and 20m SMA). Looking ahead, I will preview for you that when we
get to the 1-2-3 rules, we will discover that niggling real-life problem where
we have made a commitment at point 3 and point 4 disappoints. Best regards.
Mike.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Re: FTT
Quote from callmate:
My confusion is here, the price makes higher high but it still falls within the definition of an FTT. What's the clue realtime?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Spydertrader. Kindly forbear my pedanticism, but I am a stickler for rules. And we forgot to state one, albeit minor. Do we mendicants set our 20 SMA to initiate at 9:30AM ET, so that we must wait for the fateful passage of four bars before it portends future wealth, or do we initiate it earlier, allowing premarket follies to pollute it? A plug for using a first-order IIR filter follows regardless of the answer, as you no doubt have surmised. With all due civility. Mike.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
The Syllabus
The Syllabus
January 1 - ES Chart: Price, Volume, Channels and the FTT
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I asked for clarification as per above agenda.
I haven’t subscribed to this forum to pick arguments with anyone or to show off
my superior qualifications/nationality. I’m just a humble trader wanting to
learn within this supportive and encouraging environment. Can we not be
civilized to each other, after all this is the season for goodwill?
Quote from hypostomus:
Spydertrader. Kindly forbear my pedanticism, but I am a stickler for rules. And we forgot to state one, albeit minor. Do we mendicants set our 20 SMA to initiate at 9:30AM ET, so that we must wait for the fateful passage of four bars before it portends future wealth, or do we initiate it earlier, allowing premarket follies to pollute it? A plug for using a first-order IIR filter follows regardless of the answer, as you no doubt have surmised. With all due civility. Mike.
Quote from hypostomus:
we will discover that niggling real-life problem where we have made a commitment at point 3 and point 4 disappoints. Best regards.
__________________
Re: We Begin .....
Quote from Spydertrader:
Along the same line of discussion, I expect everyone to continue the long-standing tradition of respecting the other contributors to the thread. Over the last two years, the discussion has remained relatively flame free providing an environment conducive to learning. I expect that trend to continue throughout this thread as well, and I appreciate everyone’s efforts toward that end.
__________________
This is not meant to be a flippant question, simply a logical one.
We've seen many posts with regard to how important it is to train the brain to
think positively before trading a methodology with real money. Dr. Daniel Amen's
work with Brain SPECT Images clearly shows how negative thoughts can seen in the
brain.
I know this question will be seen as akin to the "show me the prints" type
posts, but its truly not meant that way. I'm asking it from the LOGICAL starting
point of a training process. If this is truly an altruistic endeavour, and you
and Jack are simply "paying forward" (which would be amazing in this business) I
ask the following question:
Why not start from the beginning, by showing all students that it can indeed be
done, on live video, for 2 or 3 days, that anyone could watch and record?
Doesn't it make sense to extinguish any negative thoughts or doubts prior to
training?
Quote from AlpineTrout:
This is not meant to be a flippant question, simply a logical one.
We've seen many posts with regard to how important it is to train the brain to think positively before trading a methodology with real money. Dr. Daniel Amen's work with Brain SPECT Images clearly shows how negative thoughts can seen in the brain.
I know this question will be seen as akin to the "show me the prints" type posts, but its truly not meant that way. I'm asking it from the LOGICAL starting point of a training process. If this is truly an altruistic endeavour, and you and Jack are simply "paying forward" (which would be amazing in this business) I ask the following question:
Why not start from the beginning, by showing all students that it can indeed be done, on live video, for 2 or 3 days, that anyone could watch and record? Doesn't it make sense to extinguish any negative thoughts or doubts prior to training?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from hypostomus:
Here we unwittingly fall afoul of the Hypostomean Hypothesis, which is that the key core rules must perforce test with positive expectation if the supporting supplementary rules are to increase that core expectation to a surety of easy wealth. From a recidivist backtester's perspective, we just accepted two rules (five minutes and 20m SMA). Looking ahead, I will preview for you that when we get to the 1-2-3 rules, we will discover that niggling real-life problem where we have made a commitment at point 3 and point 4 disappoints. Best regards. Mike.
Quote from AlpineTrout:
Why not start from the beginning, by showing all students that it can indeed be done, on live video, for 2 or 3 days, that anyone could watch and record? Doesn't it make sense to extinguish any negative thoughts or doubts prior to training?
Quote from Bearbelly:
I downloaded the video and found it very interesting but did not see any evidence that YM leads ES. Are you sure you got the right date?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from Aurum:
As stated by Spyder originally - this works on all time frames and in all markets (provided sufficient liquidity exists.) If you'd prefer, choose another market and periodicity.
Re: Re: We Begin .....
Quote from Spydertrader:
...an effort to remind everyone of the expectations for appropriate behavior required for thread participation. I encourage liberal (and frequent) use of the ET "Ignore" and "Complain" features in an effort to respond to inappropriate commentary. Adherence to the above guidelines should allow for an open and friendly discourse and foster an environment conducive to learning.
Quote from foible:
I think the key is "liquidity" as a stand-in for regularity. Some contracts or equities move far too choppily at the 5 min level so you have to step back or you'll be lost in the noise. A friend who trades forex said that there are so many games played that the 2hr or 4hr are the fastest fractals that he has been able to use consistently. Imagine trading a stock with an avg vol of 45,000 shares/day off the 1min fractal - the bars will be all noise.
Spydertrader. Thank you kindly for the examples. They raise two questions
which no doubt reveal my ignorance of the gospels. In a possible downtrend, you
seem to be waiting for a red bar before you draw the right side, and vice versa
for an uptrend. Similarly it appears that you do not declare an FTT in an
uptrend unless the bar is red and vice versa. Rules, or just accidents of the
examples?
My question about the 20 SMA was not meant to be flippant, I assumed you were
going somewhere with it, and when to start it is a rule. Best regards. Mike.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
FTT has been defined.
Since BO and FBO are part of the beginner identification and action sequence,
could we define those also?
My understanding (correctly or not) is that a breakout occurs when price crosses
the current right trendline to the "outside" of the channel.
In other words, if you have an up channel, a BO occurs when price goes down
through the RTL.
A failed breakout, ambiguously, is when a BO has happened, but price retreats
back into the channel it broke out from.
Aurum. No disrespect, but it remains to be proved that it works on all time frames. The present tutorial will presumably prove that it works on 5 minute. I am merely representing the views of a wide audience here who believe that a workable system is a testable system, and I am pointing out and collecting the rules as they are presented. Mike.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Quote from makosgu:
In time we will get to this. I have spent a bunch of time in this arena and have a whole bunch of "engineering tools" that quantify this. At a very simple level, you can consider the resolution. For every ONE tick that ES moves, you will find that YM will have moved MORE THAN ONE YM tick. This is a fine resolution item. What you will then need to back out and picture is whether or not the two pairs behave similarly/reliably. Again, there are engineering analytics that can be used... This is months down the line...
Regards,
MAK
None taken Hypo, and I better understand your viewpoint.
Will you be running concurrent tests on the NQ, using a different timeframe?
The 20 SMA
Quote from hypostomus:
Rules, or just accidents of the examples?
Quote from hypostomus:
My question about the 20 SMA was not meant to be flippant, I assumed you were going somewhere with it, and when to start it is a rule. Best regards. Mike.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: We Begin .....
Quote from Magna:
Spydertrader (along with a few others) are graciously taking a tremendous amount of their time and energy to attempt something here that few at ET have ever done.
WILL TRADE
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from Aurum:
Since BO and FBO are part of the beginner identification and action sequence, could we define those also?
__________________
Spydertrader. Thank you for the clarification. Then perhaps you can relieve
me of a difficulty I faced trying to trade FTTs in NQ. In the examples you
showed, you did not identify the first bar failing to touch the left side as THE
FTT. (A less respectful correspondent might cry "Hindsight!".) Am I missing a
subsidiary rule? I must add that I am not asking merely to be argumentative. The
pain of losses trading FFTTs (false FTTs) still lingers. Which is why I now
trade head-and-shoulders supported by other reversal indications, regardless of
what the lines are saying. To preview where I am going, how MUCH of a failure
constitutes a failure? Rules, rules, rules. Best regards. Mike.
Edit: Also, I notice that sometimes you start the channel on the second bar
indicative of a reversal, rather than always using the first bar. Raising
another rule question, how much of a reversal makes you call a reversal? Itchy
fingers and confused minds need rules to avoid losses.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Quote from Aurum:
I've always understood the statement to be an IF...THEN construct. IF sufficient liquidity exists in the given market on the given timeframe, THEN the FTT works (on that timeframe.)
Hypo
Are you referring to this bar? It gets pretty complicated at times. This could
be considered an ftt in the green channel but not in the red channel so we need
to know which channel has precedence. Since the red channel is a retrace on the
green channel I suspect that this bar is not an ftt but Im still learning.
Rules
Quote from hypostomus:
Rules, rules, rules.
__________________
On spotting FTTs real-time
I have what is probably a fairly basic question. My ability to spot FTTs in hindsight and draw channels is progressing nicely. What needs a lot of work though is spotting them real-time. For example, in the attached picture, as you are trading how do you know that bars "a" and "b" are not FTTs? How many bars after the proposed FTT do you know for sure that it was actually an FTT? When exactly do you pull the trigger as you are trading these FTTs? I feel as if I'm not sure a given bar was an FTT until five or six bars later.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I suspect that this bar is not an ftt but Im still learning.
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Re: On spotting FTTs real-time
Quote from Pr0crast:
For example, in the attached picture, as you are trading how do you know that bars "a" and "b" are not FTTs? How many bars after the proposed FTT do you know for sure that it was actually an FTT? When exactly do you pull the trigger as you are trading these FTTs? I feel as if I'm not sure a given bar was an FTT until five or six bars later.
__________________
Yes, yes it does. Thanks.
Re: Re: On spotting FTTs real-time
Quote from Spydertrader:
Does this help?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Spydertrader. Again, thank you for your thorough answer. I shall be quiet and await the revelation of the ruling role of volume. But for the sake of completeness, I will point out a fourth immediate outcome of an FTT, not all that uncommon: a consolidation, often unbearably long. But that of course always leads to two of your outcomes: BO and FBO. In NQ we have another outcome, which in your terminology you might call an FFBO. You are indeed a brave man to undertake this explication. One trusts that Nwbprop is watching. Mike.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Oh, hell, the suspense is killing me. Would we have called an FTT Friday morning at bar 5, 6 or 7? Clearly a trick question given the volume pattern, haha! And regardless of your answer, it makes my point that a better entry (in this case bar 9) often follows an FTT. (I wish Jack had been born later so he would use candlesticks - so much clearer.)
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Re: Re: Re: On spotting FTTs real-time
Quote from makosgu:
You beat me to it...
I could probably fill in the other half of the chart thats missing... A LA VOLUME!!!
Quote from hypostomus:
Oh, hell, the suspense is killing me. Would we have called an FTT Friday morning at bar 5, 6 or 7? Clearly a trick question given the volume pattern, haha! And regardless of your answer, it makes my point that a better entry (in this case bar 9) often follows an FTT. (I wish Jack had been born later so he would use candlesticks - so much clearer.)
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Mak, are you trading this methodology fulltime on ES?
Quote from hypostomus:
But for the sake of completeness, I will point out a fourth immediate outcome of an FTT, not all that uncommon: a consolidation, often unbearably long.
Quote from hypostomus:
Oh, hell, the suspense is killing me. Would we have called an FTT Friday morning at bar 5, 6 or 7? Clearly a trick question given the volume pattern, haha! And regardless of your answer, it makes my point that a better entry (in this case bar 9) often follows an FTT. (I wish Jack had been born later so he would use candlesticks - so much clearer.)
Quote from Spydertrader:
In an effort to get yourself “up to speed” (so to speak), review the end of Journal Two beginning with This Post.
__________________
Thank you all very kindly. Have a great New Year.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Pr0crast,
Quote from Pr0crast:
Yes, yes it does. Thanks.
Quote from Spydertrader:
I refer to BO and FBO as end effects (along with another FTT). In other words, I look for what occurs after an FTT. For the purposes of this Journal, I define an FBO as failing to break out of the right side trend line, or after doing so, fails to remain outside the trend line (right side) for one bar. I define a BO as price breaking through the right side trend line, and remaining outside the channel for at least one bar. See attached examples where two trends fight for dominance.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader: I refer to BO and FBO as end effects (along with another FTT). In other words, I look for what occurs after an FTT. . . .snip
Quote from Spydertrader:
Lets assume, in real time, a trader did identify that bar as an FTT. What happened next? We see an FBO. What do we do as beginner traders on an FBO? We exit, and wait for another FTT. A few bars later we get one, and we are back on the right side of the market.
- Spydertrader
Mak
Could you please explain how you identified bar 4 as point 2 in the above
example. Bar 4 volume was over bar 3 and bar 5 volume was larger than bar 4. I
can understand bar 5 becoming a point 2 when bar 6 fails to go higher on lower
volume. What am I missing here?
Here is the Friday trade (in question) and how I saw it.
Sheesh could it be any clearer
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-01-01/Joab27.png
Could someone comment on the volume keys that I should use in these
circumstances please.
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-01-01/Joab28.png
Joab,
Quote from Joab:
Could someone comment on the volume keys that I should use in these circumstances please.
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-01-01/Joab28.png
), an LED finally went off in my
head. There was increasing Vol after the FTT! I think similar or decreasing Vol
would have probably led to a flaw.
]
Quote from spooz_trader1:
There was increasing Vol after the FTT! I think similar or decreasing Vol would have probably led to a flaw.
spooz
Quote from Spydertrader:
...
For the sake of this discussion, let's assume you did think the HVS was an FTT (bar 5 or 6 [you pick]). The very next bar (seven) provides another FTT (in the opposite direction). Since an FTT followed by another FTT calls for a reverse, the trader who mistakenly identified the HVS as an FTT, would then be back on the right side of the market - after profiting from their misidentification.
...
[/B]
Quote from Joab:
Could someone comment on the volume keys that I should use in these circumstances please.
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-01-01/Joab28.png
Clarification
Quote from EstebanUno:
Can an FTT also occur when traversing left to right?
__________________
Joab
Spooz, this is my take. Any comments?
Joab,
Quote from Joab:
spooz thanks for trying and i think u did help
So in this case because volume expaned after the FTT I could have abandoned the Short and given the Long precendent?
) analysis...)...
Re: Clarification
Quote from Spydertrader:
... On bar seven, we see a second FTT form (Red) in the newly created down channel when price fails to traverse from right to left. At this point, the trader would then find themselves back on the 'right' side of the market. See attached snip. ...
[/B]
Re: Re: Clarification
Quote from EstebanUno:
Thanks Spyder, that helps.
Would I be correct in saying the second FTT (keeping in mind that this is all hypothetical because it's all based on an incorrect interpretation of the first FTT) would be an FTT of a tape, and not a channel?
__________________
Quote from jack hershey:
You are posting here a chart and asking about volume and you do not have any rays on your volume part of the chart. Why punish yourself by not annotating?
It is 2007 and it is time to bear down a little and reflect the continuing support that is being offered.
If you put in the rays and if you refer to the three illustrations of money velocity (on 6 levels) , etc associated with these volumes, then you are getting warmed up and in the ball park.
You are not building a morass of tiny rules for every situation like putting electrical tape on a beat up hardball.
So do your part to establish the context in order to grow.
We work on our end too.
Spyder
Thanks for clearing that up.
The rule set you are referring to is:
ftt: enter in opposite direction then:
fbo: exit
bo: hold
ftt: reverse again.
Do I finally have this straight. The one thing I am not clear on is what to do
if it goes against you immeditely. Would you reverse again when it takes out the
bottom/top of the ftt bar?
Volume
Let's take a look at Volume as a tool for trading the ES ....
If you notice my charts, you'll see several lines drawn through the volume bars.
Red Line - 2500 level
Blue Lines - 4500 and 7000 levels
Green Lines - 9000 and 19,000 levels
Everyone should add these levels (or an iteration there of) to their ES Charts.
These various levels represent the 'pace' of the market (I may have the levels
slightly off, but Jack can provide the exact levels he uses). Think of it as
what to expect from price when volume reaches these levels. The greater the
level of volume, the greater the movement of price.
Mak posted his observations with respect to Volume, and I encourage everyone
to review his post.
In addition, the
Gaussians Attachment lays out our expectations for price movement based on
continued volume increase. Note the Gaussian changes at the point of an FTT.
I hope everyone finds the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Volume
I hope everyone finds the above information useful.
- Spydertrader [/B]
and I'm
working on getting Ensign to add them.
Quotetracker has the horizontal lines and its free.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Do I finally have this straight. The one thing I am not clear on is what to do if it goes against you immediately. Would you reverse again when it takes out the bottom/top of the ftt bar?
__________________
Re: Re: Volume
Quote from Joab:
My question is about the Guassians. In which contexts should we use the 5m ES or the 2m YM.?
__________________
use sma 8 instead sma20?
spyder:
Pls educate Me on the following:
Do you think it is advantageous to use 8-day ma in trading es/ym? It rides
concisely with price/vol movements.
Do you use 5min charts for both direction and execution of your trades?( maybe
2min is better for enter & exit?)
While it is in congested area that FTT battle with FBO & etc, do you take a
break and wait to see for a clearer direct then act?
Is there a guild line for you about the amount of USD in referrence of
time(bars) to exit your trade and what is the longest length of time that you
stay on in one trade?
tnx, wen
Quote from Bearbelly:
Mak
Could you please explain how you identified bar 4 as point 2 in the above example. Bar 4 volume was over bar 3 and bar 5 volume was larger than bar 4. I can understand bar 5 becoming a point 2 when bar 6 fails to go higher on lower volume. What am I missing here?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: use sma 8 instead sma20?
Quote from bucherwin:
Do you think it is advantageous to use 8-day ma in trading es/ym? It rides concisely with price/vol movements.
Quote from bucherwin:
Do you use 5min charts for both direction and execution of your trades?( maybe 2min is better for enter & exit?)
Quote from bucherwin:
While it is in congested area that FTT battle with FBO & etc, do you take a break and wait to see for a clearer direct then act?
Quote from bucherwin:
Is there a guild line for you about the amount of USD in reference of time(bars) to exit your trade and what is the longest length of time that you stay on in one trade?
__________________
1. What ever happened to rockets, I thought new traders were supposed to
start off with them before moving on to more advanced SCT type trading?
2. Considering this is already the most popular thread on ET, I suspect a lot of
folks are going to be trading this method so I suspect there will be a lot more
'flaws' to it. Can we expect more CCCs and HVSs?
Interesting thread btw Spyder, thanks.
Lordy, lordy, lol. Can we clear up the distinction between a tape and a channel. I assume a tape is a series of bars of the same length so to get a channel we need a bo of the rtl of the tape which creates a point 3 and then we have a channel?
Happy New Year (and prosperous)
Hope you do not mind my jumping into this thread.
A big thank you for this thread and the others you have done in the past. I have
been following and reading everything for the last 2+ months and learned a lot.
I am still struggling with the ftt to ftt, BO, and FBO concept. I have drawn a
lot of lines but haven't mastered this yet. The recent posts on this thread has
helped me a lot. Some of the fog is lifting as I now understand BO and FBO a
little better.
For an ftt to go to another ftt, I assume we would have to use a different
channel then the one the ftt occurred in, is that correct?
Anyway, a big thanks and HAPPY NEW YEAR.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Questions
Quote from aeliodon:
1. What ever happened to rockets, I thought new traders were supposed to start off with them before moving on to more advanced SCT type trading?
Quote from aeliodon:
2. Considering this is already the most popular thread on ET, I suspect a lot of folks are going to be trading this method so I suspect there will be a lot more 'flaws' to it. Can we expect more CCCs and HVSs?
__________________
Quote from Bearbelly:
Lordy, lordy, lol. Can we clear up the distinction between a tape and a channel. I assume a tape is a series of bars of the same length so to get a channel we need a bo of the rtl of the tape which creates a point 3 and then we have a channel?
__________________
Re: Happy New Year (and prosperous)
Quote from Lightbody:
For an ftt to go to another ftt, I assume we would have to use a different channel then the one the ftt occurred in, is that correct?
__________________
Thanks. Back to drawing lines.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from Joab:
Jack,
I'm by no means trying to circumvent the process but being at a disadvantage of time and not being a student of the Equities Journal I was under the belief that it would be possible to jump in to this Futures Journal without the all the benefits of understanding the Equities processes?
If I'm incorrect in this thinking please tell me now and I can revisit this when I can dedicate more time to studying the entire process.
Mucho appreciated
I am sorry, but I have couple of questions.
If I understand this concept correctly (maybe not). You enter when FTT occurs.
SO you enter when the trend line is broken?
And last but not least, when do you exit? After the FTT occurs again....so
meaning you change your position with a trend?
Thanks and Happy New Year.
Quote from rateesquad:
I am sorry, but I have couple of questions.
If I understand this concept correctly (maybe not). You enter when FTT occurs. SO you enter when the trend line is broken?
And last but not least, when do you exit? After the FTT occurs again....so meaning you change your position with a trend?
Thanks and Happy New Year.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Questions
Quote from rateesquad:
If I understand this concept correctly (maybe not). You enter when FTT occurs. SO you enter when the trend line is broken?
Quote from rateesquad:
And last but not least, when do you exit? After the FTT occurs again....so meaning you change your position with a trend?
__________________
Using 5-min bars, how many channels would I expect to draw in a day? It seems
that after the first two bars appear, I can draw a channel
(speculative/potential channel). Then when the 3rd price bar appears, I may be
able to draw another channel, using the 2nd and 3rd bars, maybe trending in the
opposite direction to the 1st channel.
Are there any channel drawing guidelines?
Channel Guidelines
Quote from doli:
Are there any channel drawing guidelines?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Before proceeding any further, please review the .gif files located within the Determining Trend Thread linked above. If you find after doing so you still have difficulty drawing trend lines, then move to the Channels Document. The rest of the background material can wait for another time – when you need to ‘fill in the blank spaces’ some time in the future.
__________________
OK. I am on page 18 of the .pdf (Channels_for_BW_v2.2.pdf) and see that there is a channel drawn with the help of points 1, 2 and 3. How were those points found? Is point 2 always at the 2nd bar after point 1 and point 3 always at the 2nd bar after point 2? I don't think so. Is point 2 found when the next bar is a lower bar? Then is point 3 found when the next bar is a higher bar? Maybe, but suppose the market began at the 6th bar? Does the distance between the right and left lines have to be equal, i.e., do the right and left lines have to be parallel?
Quote from doli:
OK. I am on page 18 of the .pdf (Channels_for_BW_v2.2.pdf) and see that there is a channel drawn with the help of points 1, 2 and 3. How were those points found? Is point 2 always at the 2nd bar after point 1 and point 3 always at the 2nd bar after point 2? I don't think so. Is point 2 found when the next bar is a lower bar? Then is point 3 found when the next bar is a higher bar? Maybe, but suppose the market began at the 6th bar? Does the distance between the right and left lines have to be equal, i.e., do the right and left lines have to be parallel?
__________________
Quote from doli:
OK. I am on page 18 of the .pdf (Channels_for_BW_v2.2.pdf) and see that there is a channel drawn with the help of points 1, 2 and 3. How were those points found? Is point 2 always at the 2nd bar after point 1 and point 3 always at the 2nd bar after point 2? I don't think so. Is point 2 found when the next bar is a lower bar? Then is point 3 found when the next bar is a higher bar? Maybe, but suppose the market began at the 6th bar? Does the distance between the right and left lines have to be equal, i.e., do the right and left lines have to be parallel?
Reminder
Just a reminder ...
Tuesday January 2, 2007 has been designated as a National Day of Mourning for
former President Gerald Ford. As a result, U.S. stock markets will be closed.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from jack hershey:
I was just trying to be responsive to you.
Communication here is only so effective.
Right, I hope I got at least some concept to this. ( It is my 1st day
learning this). So, I was wondering if I have plotted the lines correctly?
Unfortunatly futures/equities markets are not going to be open until the 3rd so,
I used forex charts. Just to get the basic concept.
Now I was wondering if I have plotted them at least close to waht it is supposed
to be? Any help will be appreciated.
Quote from rateesquad:
Now I was wondering if I have plotted them at least close to what it is supposed to be? Any help will be appreciated.
__________________
Channels and FTT's
With regard to the FTT's, it seems everyone would be thrilled with a concrete
description like: A bar with a higher high and higher low than the previous bar,
with decreasing volume. But it can't be that way. It's more like a detective
work weighing the evidence, because they are not all the same during their
formation. How the bar formed - speed, retracement, volume, the forward progress
- it's always a bit different. Sometimes the next couple bars move up on lower
volume then form a FTT, sometimes extraordinary volume is a clue, sometimes it's
a reversal bar. With the tools available at this point you can't expect to nail
it everytime on the right bar, sometimes you wait for more confirmation. There
isn't really a "right" or "correct" time on a particular bar - this can be a
difficult concept especially for a systems type trader or anyone trying to find
the "right" time. As tools are added, you get more clues and timing gets better.
So even if everyone is looking at the same FTT, the point at which they can say
it's an FTT will vary.
Regards,
EZ
Re: Channels and FTT's
Quote from Ezzy:
With regard to the FTT's, it seems everyone would be thrilled with a concrete description like: A bar with a higher high and higher low than the previous bar, with decreasing volume. But it can't be that way.
Quote from Joab:
I just can't draw the rays (yet) with my current software (ensign).
PointOne made such an excellent commentary on the FTT
here that I wanted to point it out.
Thanks PointOne - and I look forward to your input as we move forward in '07.
Quote from spooz_trader1:
...
Take a look at the 'ftt' in the short traverse. After Spyder mentioning to look at the Vol after an FTT (a bunch of times
In trading we do not wait for information to become available before making
decisions. Rather we analyze the data that is continually available. Why someone
would wait until the end of the bar to evaluate the volume is an ERROR.
This is a terrific example of what NOT to do in trading. If all the
while, you cannot see that your PRV meter is indicating INCR/DECR as soon
as 30 seconds into the current bar (ie. 4.5 mins before the end of the current
bar), then we need to fix this problem. In equities, it is the same as taking
the position before 11 am when you see volume has already exceeded DU. Why do we
take position in equities??? Because we know that before the end of the day, we
will have volume that is in excess of DU. The rational is very simple. If by 11
am you have already met DU volume, then surely by the end of the day, you will
have more than DU volume. Using the equities volume profile, you can actually
accurately project your EOD of day volume via PRV like projections...
Regards,
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from Spydertrader:
Consolidation (another flaw), or as Jack terms it CCC, occurs between one FTT and the three End Effects metioned previously. Beginning traders also hold through this flaw - as all the other flaws.
Had you followed the advice given below ....
Eventually, you would have arrived at this chart.
SNIP
Green FTT
Quote from dougcs:
If I am correct then as there are 4 parallel green channel lines, 2 below and 2 above the FTT, my question is which of these channels does the FTT refer to?
__________________
Re: Green FTT
Quote from Spydertrader:
The "Green FTT" refers to the "Green Channel" created by the RTL you have labelled as the "Lowest Green Channel" and the LTL you have labelled as "4th Green Channel" on your attached chart. Originally, the channel used only the "Lowest Green Channel" and the "Second Green Channel" as its boundaries. However, when price improved (on a previous day) the channel expanded creating "Volatility Expansion" lines (which you have labelled as "3rd and 4th Green Channels"). These Volatility expansion lines simply widen the channel. Because I always extend my dominant trends over into the next trading day (in an effort to squash any perception of 'hindsight annotation'), I left in the extra lines. However, the lines labelled as "2nd and 3rd Green Channel" could be eliminated if it makes the view clearer.
Hope that helps clarify.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Green FTT
Quote from dougcs:
Getting back to conventions, am I correct that your labelling convention, are color coordinated, ie, a green FTT goes with Green channel lines, orange to orange, etc?
__________________
FTT
An Old Post from Jack which may help some to 'see' the FTT quicker. Note
Jack's description of Volume in the post.
- Spydertrader
__________________
I am starting to dream FTTs.
Actually I wanted to post a annoted emini chart for comments and to see if I am
with the program so far. The graph is from Dec 8/2006.
BTW -
1) The last week of December due to the very low volume is a very risky/tricky
emini trading week.
2) The daily pivots are valuable emini Support and Resistance points.
The speed with which these threads are growing....
It's unbelievable how fast these threads are growing.... I am still chewing
through Journal One... by the time I will have digested and understood that, you
will be on page 800 of journal Six... great work of course, and fascinating...
__________________
Vienna
Re: The speed with which these threads are growing....
Quote from Vienna:
It's unbelievable how fast these threads are growing.... I am still chewing through Journal One... by the time I will have digested and understood that, you will be on page 800 of journal Six... great work of course, and fascinating...
""Correct. FTT, FBO and BO correspond in color to the channel of the same
color (formed by the numbers of the same color).""
Patience, patience the master said to himself.
Quote from makosgu:
...volume via PRV like projections...
Regards,
MAK
Dreaming in FTT's
Quote from 8833broc:
Actually I wanted to post a annoted emini chart for comments and to see if I am with the program so far. The graph is from Dec 8/2006.
__________________
Quote from Aurum:
Joab,
Add a price line study (not sure what it's called exactly) onto the volume pane. Go into the properties of the study, and set the constant value to be e.g. 10k. It will show up as a solid line then on volume - repeat as needed.
Personally, I would advise you to not use Ensign as a charting package for this methodology. It's critical to be able to see the higher timeframe (fractal) channels on the lower timeframes - and you can't do that with Ensign unless you manually copy the channels. To be able to switch timeframes and have my channels remain intact has been worth far more than the additional cost of QCharts vs Ensign.
-Au
Anticipating CCC or new channel
Below is my ES chart thus far in the day. I have been unsure about how to proceed after a perceived CCC area. Are my pt's 1,2 and 3 correct at this point? Are there any "rules" for starting or adjusting a channel after a CCC?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Anticipating CCC or new channel
Quote from bundlemaker:
Below is my ES chart thus far in the day. I have been unsure about how to proceed after a perceived CCC area. Are my pt's 1,2 and 3 correct at this point? Are there any "rules" for starting or adjusting a channel after a CCC?
If this has been answered before I apologize:
where exactly is the entry when a FTT occurs? After the bar which will be and
FTT is complete, doesn't it need another bar to confirm it as an FTT? Do you
enter on that next bar, the breakout of the low (in a short) or what?
Thanks.
__________________
Vienna
Quote from Vienna:
If this has been answered before I apologize:
where exactly is the entry when a FTT occurs? After the bar which will be and FTT is complete, doesn't it need another bar to confirm it as an FTT? Do you enter on that next bar, the breakout of the low (in a short) or what?
Thanks.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Thank you.
So I guess the question is:
If you are just using P and V, when do you know that it is an FTT in real time?
__________________
Vienna
As a follow up to my last post (earlier today) here is an example. On the
attched chart I have two possible RTL's numbered 1 and 2. #1 starts from within
the CCC. #2 starts with the bar that breaks out from CCC.
Is either 1 or 2 "the" correct way to do it, or is it a matter of waiting for
how the channel shapes up.
I admit to having a lot of baggage (bad beliefs) about channel providing data
which is too late to trade on. One thing that is becoming clear is that it seems
like even though I need to massage my channels often from my first attempt, that
massaging doesn't really effect where I'd get into or out of a trade.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
forgot attach...
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Anticipating CCC or new channel
Quote from bundlemaker:
I have been unsure about how to proceed after a perceived CCC area. Are my pt's 1,2 and 3 correct at this point? Are there any "rules" for starting or adjusting a channel after a CCC?
Re: Re: Anticipating CCC or new channel
Quote from excav8tr:
once established, there are three parts Congestion, Convergence, and Centering.... your points are identifying a traverse of the initial Congestion the volume is suggesting a drift downward into Convergence and centering. Once CCC is identified you should be able to draw a lateral channel, this channel is the only type that can have volitility expansions to either direction, making the potential greater to both sides Long and Short. The final part of the CCC is likely to exhibit a penant formation either FTP long bias, FBP short bias, SYM bracket entry. once identified, and depending on the spread deems it tradeable or sideline .... FTT s can occur on either side within lateral, but remember that you are expecting price to come into a centering formation. Volume will give you a heads up when to begin a trend out of CCC.
Hope you find the information useful
EX
) But first I'll
study what you said, it's a mouthful.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Re: Re: Anticipating CCC or new channel
Quote from bundlemaker:
This is very helpful and also cause for many more questions (as is the case with helpful info
Wheres spyder? Did not see him in chat this morning. Ftt's cleaning up today.
Quote from Vienna:
Thank you.
So I guess the question is:
If you are just using P and V, when do you know that it is an FTT in real time?
This afternoon I mis-identified a number of FTT’s. The ones I did get right
were immediately followed by a reversal FTT. Roughly approximating where I
reasonably would have entered and exited would have resulted in small losses at
best. I can’t help but think these small losses would multiply rapidly.
Is my experience today primarily due to being a bit unusual with the long
weekend and FOMC or is it more likely a significant lack of skill or something
else I'm missing. I know Spyder has demonstrated an abililty to make $$$ only
with FTT’s.
At this point I have two screaming voices in my head; on one side is the voice
of reason telling me to be patient and trust I will get this at some point – the
other voice isn’t so nice
I have attached my final chart for the day, thanks in advance for any comments.
Jack, if you're looking in, I'd appreciate your input.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
I dont think its even neccesary to enter on the ftt bar itself although it would be nice to be able to do so. Most of the time I trade the BO rather than the ftt itself. You dont really sacrifice too much by doing this.
Here are the KEY turning points i noticed today.
Also
If you add a 3 period simple moving average to you Volume charts you can see the
turns a lot easier.
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-01-03/Joab40.png
ok, is this FTT? on YM 5m
Quote from bundlemaker:
This afternoon I mis-identified a number of FTT’s. The ones I did get right were immediately followed by a reversal FTT. Roughly approximating where I reasonably would have entered and exited would have resulted in small losses at best. I can’t help but think these small losses would multiply rapidly.
Is my experience today primarily due to being a bit unusual with the long weekend and FOMC or is it more likely a significant lack of skill or something else I'm missing. I know Spyder has demonstrated an abililty to make $$$ only with FTT’s.
At this point I have two screaming voices in my head; on one side is the voice of reason telling me to be patient and trust I will get this at some point – the other voice isn’t so nice
Quote from nkhoi:
ok, is this FTT? on YM 5m
Hi all,
I've been following spyder and jack for some time now, and this seems like an
opportune time to jump in and get started with some of this. I have a little IRA
acct just sitting at IB that I don't really touch- so let's see if I can put it
to good use here. Right now I'm just working on the channels and FTTs. Trading
this will come later for me. Attached is my attempt at today. All input welcome.
And a quick thanks to Spyder for the two equities journals and this one. Your
patience, contribution and ability to translate for Jack is a tremendous asset
for this website.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I dont think its even neccesary to enter on the ftt bar itself although it would be nice to be able to do so. Most of the time I trade the BO rather than the ftt itself. You dont really sacrifice too much by doing this.
Little Late to the party
I apologize for my absence today. An early morning phone call alerted me to
an unforeseen change in schedule. Rather than monitor the YM and ES, I spent the
day watching Barney and Tele-Tubbies. The reason for the change? A new member of
the family arrived early this morning (2 days early), and sis needed a sitter
(Uncle Spydertrader) for her other kids. The birth went well, and Catherine Rose
arrived with ten fingers, ten toes and one loud voice.
I'll play catch up and provide some commentary later this evening.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Congrats Uncle Spyder!
Congrats Spydie,
Family should always trump business
Quote from Bearbelly:
I dont think its even neccesary to enter on the ftt bar itself although it would be nice to be able to do so. Most of the time I trade the BO rather than the ftt itself. You dont really sacrifice too much by doing this.
I, on the other hand, have gotten chopped up from early entries and done much
better waiting. Different strokes for differnt folks.
Here are my results (real time trades but in an IB simulated account).
The little blue things are Buys, maroon = sells.
(I took a long lunch and missed part of that major down move.)
Sorry about not color coding up and down price and volume. My free charting
Software doesn't let me.
I am not sure what the value of my observations about today will be. I am hoping
to solicit opinions and gain more insights into the working ( ie. tradeable )
aspects of volume in today's action.
1) There were few FTTs today on the 5 minute factal.
2) Most of today's volume was spent in the morning trades and
price drifted with low volume from around 10:15am to about
12:30pm. Volume /selling pressure really came in this
afternoon.
3) I noticed today that volume really dissipated when the price
was riding the downward sloping right trend line
Today's chart is attached and it pretty much mirrors the charts that I've seen
posted today.
Clym,
I attached your chart with some comments. I didn't see all of the
ftt's that you saw. I placed red arrows where i thought ftt's were.
I also placed a new green trend line just to show an alternative perspective.
Your smaller scale between prices and the bigger chart size made your chart
easier to read than the chart i attached in my prior post.
Housekeeping
First of all, thank-you to everyone who sent their well wishes with respect
to the new addition to our family. I appreciate the sentiment very much.
Now, on to the ES and the FTT.
I don't want anyone to take this in a negative fashion, but I really don't know
any other way to say it without sounding patronizing. I certainly do not intend
my comments to fall into that category. Rather than worry about how it sounds,
I'll just say it straight and let the chips fall where they may.
For whatever reason, a number of people have failed to follow directions.
Perhaps, I did not make it clear. We find ourselves in observation mode
at this point. No real money, no simulators. We draw lines (and annotate), and
we watch price and volume. We make mental notes of anticipating what comes next
with respect to Price (FTT's) and Volume (Gaussians). Now, some of the traders
following this Journal already have moved beyond observing and into
actual trading because of 1. their trading experience, or 2. their familiarity
with Jack's teachings. No problem here. You'll notice these same people already
have a firm grasp and an ability to spot on FTT quite quickly.
However, for those of you still having difficulty, please do not use a
simulator. Why not? The minute you move to monitoring a P & L (even a simulated
one), you have stopped training your brain to see price and volume patterns. The
time will come when we will concern ourselves with execution. At that
time, you will have trained yourself to never look at your P & L. We are
not at that point in time yet, so please, do yourselves a favor, and simply
monitor (while drawing in channels and Gaussians, and annotating same) the
chart.
Also, I cannot recommend enough, the importance of reviewing the links posted at
the beginning of this Journal (as well as other links posted throughout). If you
have not yet read through the recommended pages - as outlined in the first four
posts to this thread, please take the time to do so.
Now, something more positive ...
I realize some of you are having difficulty 'seeing' the FTT using only the ES.
As we add more tools, the process becomes quicker and easier. However, if you
cannot see the FTT until 3, 4 or 5 bars later, then you simply need more
practice using Price and Volume. I have allotted plenty of time for practice.
In an effort to provide some assistance, I'd like those of you experiencing
difficulty to try something different tomorrow. Using only Price, Volume,
Channels and Gaussians, I want you to try and anticipate what comes next while
looking for the FTT's. I do not mean to say, I want you to predict what
comes next, but rather based on where you find price and volume now, what
should happen in the subsequent bar(s). Speak to yourself out loud as you
do it. I know that sounds rather silly, but it actually helped me, and still
helps me when I speak with others via phone during market hours.
The process should work something like this:
"O.K., Price failed to reach the left trend line on really big (30,000
contracts) - huge even - volume on that last bar. PRV Volume (30 seconds)
shows 2000 contracts traded and volume is red. No way volume reaches the same
levels as last bar. Price already failed to exceed the last bar high. This might
be an FTT right here. If it is an FTT, I expect to see decreasing red volume,
followed by increasing red volume and decreasing price."
Now you would continue to monitor price and volume looking for changes to your
expectations and noticing how the market changes confirmed or invalidated your
hypothesis.
Expect to make errors. Expect to be incorrect in your analysis.
But, keep talking yourself through each bar until you reach the midday. Review
your morning. How did you do?
The above exercise forces a trader to look at the big picture (forest), while at
the same time, focusing on the details (trees). At some point, you'll simply
become somewhat "in tune" with the market's ebbs and flows. You'll know that
price has to come down to a certain level in order to make that "Point Three"
Formation. Think how you'll amaze yourself when you think it in advance and then
it happens.
Again, I hope everyone takes my opening statements in the light that I intended
- an effort to keep people on track and out of the ditches (so to speak). Nobody
should take my comments as anything other than an attempt to provide assistance.
IF anyone takes offense, allow me to apologize now.
Good Journey to you all.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Housekeeping
Quote from Spydertrader:
Rather than worry about how it sounds, I'll just say it straight and let the chips fall where they may.
For whatever reason, a number of people have failed to follow directions.
hehe
FWIW, I felt pretty good about the FTT I spotted this morning (the first of
the year for me ) and I thought I
would post it for consumption and comments. I would be very interested in
hearing if others spotted the FTT using a different real-time analysis.
Although I didn't spot the FTT at the high of the bar 3, I was able to spot and
annotate it before the 5 min bar ended. The big clue for me on this particular
sequence was both price and volume-related. Price was dropping from the
high/bar. And volume was strong/fast-paced. I don't recall the exact PRV
estimate, but the question I ask myself a lot these days is "how much volume is
needed to push price to the LTL". Since the high was approx mid-channel and
price was falling, I felt this bar was a good 'candidate' FTT. I didn't write
down the time but the Chat log has it timestamped at 9:43:32 when I mentioned it
(No, I don't know how accurate the ET Chat timestamp is...
)
I'm not saying this particular sequence will work every time. I'm sure it won't.
I'm just trying to build the (hopefully) finite set of FTT sequences. And this
one was worked this am. So, I've added it to my set.
Semi-related, the drill that Spyder recently posted has me thinking that it is
important to be able record and debrief when annotations are made on a chart.
Since I have Excel up and running during the session anyway, I'm going to create
a sheet that I can enter comments like "Price failed to reach the left trend
line...". With a simple macro, the comment/annotation can be auto-timestamped.
Add a Debrief column for after market comments. So, 3 simple columns to start:
time (auto), comment, debrief. If this turns out to be useful, more columns can
obviously be added for precision. I'm going to try it for a while and if I deem
it useful, I could post the sheet if anyone wants it. My theory is that one
should be able to gauge annotation progress if an accurate log is kept. We'll
see... As a quick side, it would be WAY cool if charting software did this
automatically. But don't get me started on this topic...
Sorry for the long post...
spooz
Hitch
See attached chart. As I annotated my charts tonight (Yes, in hindsight
) I ran across this series of
Price bars, and felt pretty confident some of you may have confused the Hitch
for an FTT. After all, we just had a point three formation (on both the Thick
Olive and Thick Green Channels) and even in hindsight, it looks like an FTT. Why
isn't it? Take a look at volume (Yellow Highlighted Area). Note the significant
difference in volume between the Hitch Bar and the Black Bars on either side.
"Well, that's all fine and dandy Spyder, but how do I know that volume will turn
out like this without the benefit of hindsight?"
Fair Question and one that has, no doubt, caused a great deal of frustration.
The answer is one that few people want to accept, and that answer is (for right
now), "It doesn't matter."
Yes, that's right. It doesn't matter."
Read that again.
It doesn't matter!
"Spyder, you have certainly lost it. How can the answer not matter?"
Easy. Your errors teach you. First, they teach you how to recognize the
differences between flaws and FTT's, but most importantly, your errors teach you
how to trade your way out of the mistakes we are all bound to make each
and every day. I still get fooled by a Hitch now and then, but because I made
the errors before (multiple times) and learned from them, I recognize those
errors much faster now.
Using PRV Volume to compare one volume bar to the next (if one of the
Tradestation guys could snip an enlarged picture of the Stacked Volume Gizmo for
the yellow highlighted area that would be great) allows a trader to monitor the
market for the signals which present an FTT or (in this case) a flaw. Now, I
could type out each flaw (and we will do this down the road) complete with
pictures and video and compare and contrast with the FTT formations, and
everyone would have information overload. You'd spend half your time trying to
match a price and volume pattern with a specific definition, rather than
monitoring price and volume to learn. Such a method of transference fails to
provide a sufficient foundation for success.
So for the time being, better we all learn to recognize a mistake quickly. Doing
so provides opportunity to quickly correct the error and place yourself back on
the right side of the market. Keep an eye on both Gaussian Formations and
PRV to monitor your own progression outlined above (talking to yourself during
the day ).
Example: At some point on the either the 10:00 AM Bar or the 10:05 AM Bar, a
trader feels he sees an FTT forming and enters short. As price moves with the
trade direction, the trader feels he made a correct decision. However, after
noticing volume levels (and price heading off the lows) concern begins to creep
in. Finally, the 10:05 AM bar closes, and the 10:10 AM Bar opens. PRV levels of
volume not only show black volume, but also, higher volume levels than the
previous two bars. In addition, price failed to head lower than the previous
low. The trader now sees the 10:05 bar quite differently and sees it cannot be
an FTT. Since the trader now feels they did not have an FTT, the correct course
of action requires a reverse trade, to place the trader back on the right side
of the market.
Notice, how in the above example, the trader fails to see what would normally
occur during an FTT - decreasing red volume followed by increasing red volume.
In the beginning expect to have a loss while monitoring. As one gains experience
the mistake becomes a wash until finally, a trader can recognize their errors so
quickly, the mistakes end up being profitable.
I hope you all find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Hitch
Spyder's annotations are really clear and show that anyone who was short going
into the 10am news bar should prepare for a quick reverse (and it had better be
quick!)
Price is approaching a carryover TL (long), you have had a LTL+ (volatility
expansion of the short) and that 20SMA is lurking too. I'm sure the news had
something to do with the price movement, but there appears to be sufficient
trading information without it.
Much harder to see all this in real time though, especially when you are tired
and want to go to bed.
I hope this is not off topic. I think it fits in with what we're doing here.
This really puzzles me and Im hoping one of you guys can clear it up for me. At
the bottom of this chart are pressure bars which show the volume at the bid
(red) and volume at the ask (black) for those of you that are not familiar with
them. As you can see in the circle at the left at the beginning of the down move
you have a higher percentage going off at the bid which is what I would expect
but in the circle at the right, when the down move really picked up steam, the
ask volume is equal to or greater than the bid volume most of the time and this
really blows my mind. Im wondering if my data is off or what.
Re: Re: Hitch
Quote from PointOne:
snip...
Price is approaching a carryover TL (long),
snip
Quote from mephistoII:
I have several questions pertaining to the above. For starters, when viewing a 5 min ES chart, how far out into the higher fractals do you want to go to be able to view their dominant trend channels (i.e., 15, 30, 60, 240 min, daily, weekly, etc)?
Quote from mephistoII:
I believe I have already read this somewhere previously, but failed to make note of it. As an aside, this leads me to suggest to anyone just starting to learn this methodology - create a WordPad file, and copy/paste all which strikes you as important as you begin to immerse yourself with all the linked materials presented here. I am not a highly organized person, but it just recently dawned on me to begin doing this.
Quote from mephistoII:
Secondly, if a person's charting pkg does not facilitate this practice, can one get by with simply paging to the higher fractals' own chart page to keep an eye on where price is in relation to these dominant channels?
Quote from mephistoII:
Does anyone know of a charting pkg that will offer this capability and is compatible w/ IB data feed?
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Semi-related, the drill that Spyder recently posted has me thinking that it is important to be able record and debrief when annotations are made on a chart.
spooz
As requested
Requested Chat Room snippet
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Hitch
Quote from R/R:
PointOne: Just for clarification - wasn't the point 3 which formed the "carryover TL" you referenced created by the low of the 10:00 bar? If so the TL didn't exist before the bar was at least partially completed and it wouldn't be available for such analysis.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I hope this is not off topic. I think it fits in with what we're doing here. This really puzzles me and Im hoping one of you guys can clear it up for me. At the bottom of this chart are pressure bars which show the volume at the bid (red) and volume at the ask (black) for those of you that are not familiar with them. As you can see in the circle at the left at the beginning of the down move you have a higher percentage going off at the bid which is what I would expect but in the circle at the right, when the down move really picked up steam, the ask volume is equal to or greater than the bid volume most of the time and this really blows my mind. Im wondering if my data is off or what.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Mak
Thank you for taking the time to spell this out. I know I am impatient but I see
where I need to slow down as you guys are so far ahead of me that its going to
take awhile to catch up. I have read that post of Jack's a number of times and I
am watching a display pretty much as he layed out there but so far I cant make
much of it but I will keep working on it. As my dear old mother says: patience
and perserverance made a bishop of his reverence.
p.s. On a side note my prv excel app freezes on me on numerous occasions. Got
any idea what to look for?
Patience
Quote from Bearbelly:
I know I am impatient but I see where I need to slow down as you guys are so far ahead of me that its going to take awhile to catch up.
__________________
I would like to offer some encouragement to anyone who is at or near the same
point of the learning curve as I am. I am very much a beginner here, but this
morning's action unfolded as if I had drawn a road map for it the night before.
I am not trading the ES yet, simply watching and drawing still.
Often I don't understand what it being discussed. Partially it's because I'm not
at a place yet to dedicate as much time as needed to this material, and
partially it's because I am plodding my way through the learning curve at my
natural pace. It's tough to feel like you're "getting it" one day, and then be
completely lost the next. Today, however, both the dow and the spoos came down
and bounced off of a RTL that I had drawn sometime around xmas. Not once, but
twice, in both charts. The second bounce was almost to the tick (all four were
no more than 2-3 ticks off anyway).
The point I'm trying to make is that I think that the practice I'm doing is
building up my knowledge at a much faster rate then I appreciate. I sincerely
hope others are feeling the same way.
On a different note, I've noticed that my dow charts (2 min fractal) seem to be
MUCH more accurate than my 5 min ES charts. Is anyone else experiencing this?
When I switch the ES to a 2 min chart my channels seem cleaner, clearer and
quicker. I force myself to stay with the 5 min because as I said, I'm still a
beginner, but I was wondering if anyone could offer some insight into the
benefits of the 5 min over the 2 min.
Thanks!
TNG
Here is my right screen at present. Any suggestions to improve or add would be appreciated. My left screen has the 5 min. chart, PRV and TWS.
Mak thanks again for the illustration. In the thread you mentioned by Jack, I
had a few ?'s about 4 or 5 posts below it. I don't want to clutter this thread
by asking again, perhaps someone could shed a little more light there? ... I
think I found the stalagtites on a couple of DOM's that are available, don't
know if we can mention them here... I don't want to get banned when I still have
so much to learn... I'm about 50% there erasing old mindsets...
Quote from Bearbelly:
Here is my right screen at present. Any suggestions to improve or add would be appreciated. My left screen has the 5 min. chart, PRV and TWS.
I am not trading off this screen. I wouldnt be able to trade off it if I
wanted to as I dont understand what its telling me yet. I am only using channels
and volume on my 5 min chart to trade off. I am watching these things trying to
understand what Jack and Mak are talking about. I need something to keep me
occupied between ftt's.
Syllabus
I believe Spydertrader is right in stating that we should adhere to the syllabus as outlined by him at the beginning of the journal. Baby steps please.
Do I have to go stand in the corner
Quote from Bearbelly:
Do I have to go stand in the corner
Today's take...
volume isn't really speaking to me yet, but keeping my ears open.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I am watching these things trying to understand what Jack and Mak are talking about. I need something to keep me occupied between ftt's.
__________________
ym 5m, still trying
Speaking from experience, I have used this method to make money and, when I
got ahead of my understanding and experience level, lost money. Obviously,
Spydertrader has put a lot of thought, effort and time into this approach. By
moving at this pace, IMHO, he is trying to be certain step 1 is ingrained before
moving on to step 2,3,4...
I can't tell all of you how anxious I am to jump back in. But capital is too
precious and I've been done that road before. However, I want to be certain that
I have these lessons burned on the hard drive in my head before getting back in.
So I will be on the sidelines updating my charts, gaining experience and reading
what the market is telling me for the time being. Cause when I put my money on
the line again, I want to be certain that I am always on the right side of the
market with my positions.
Today's ES Chart
Attached Chart. Take Note of the FTT at the end of the day. Notice how Volume
presented itself.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Spyder,
I have noticed that some of your FTT's are labeled as such without a full left
to right traverse just prior to FTT. On your chart, the first FTT in brown color
serves as an example.
Somewhere along the way I got in my head a traverse that turns into an FTT must
have started from the right side trend line. I take it I must have dreamt this
up somehow and is not the case.
Thanks in advance,
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Today's ES Chart
Spyder,
Quote from Spydertrader:
Attached Chart. Take Note of the FTT at the end of the day. Notice how Volume presented itself.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Clym:
Here are my results (real time trades but in an IB simulated account).
The little blue things are Buys, maroon = sells.
(I took a long lunch and missed part of that major down move.)
Quote from C99:
Today's take...
volume isn't really speaking to me yet, but keeping my ears open.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
bundlemaker,
Quote from bundlemaker:
Spyder,
I have noticed that some of your FTT's are labeled as such without a full left to right traverse just prior to FTT. On your chart, the first FTT in brown color serves as an example.
Somewhere along the way I got in my head a traverse that turns into an FTT must have started from the right side trend line. I take it I must have dreamt this up somehow and is not the case.
Thanks in advance,
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Spyder,
As usual, nice chart! Thanks.
I'm glad you are keeping things focused right now. I for one keep very busy drawing tapes, traverses, channels, gaussians, FTT's, BO's, FBO's, pennants, etc. This is a lot of work in real-time if your goal is to spot all of the "end effects". I keep telling myself that now is the time to get into the habit of fully annotating a chart because when you add more tools to the mix, there will be even less time bar-to-bar to annotate. I now consider chart annotating the most basic "sports memory" function I have to master.
spooz
Quote from Aurum:
I usually put channels on at the daily and weekly level. Sometimes I'll take a look at the 15 just to see how things are progressing.
This post by Icarus618 is really beneficial, in my opinion.
Certainly, but it's more effort. Personally I hate doing unnecessary work.
I think QuoteTracker does, but I'm not clear on how the historical data aspect works. I also believe that NeoTicker will work with IB, and if I remember correctly they keep the channels when you move between fractals.
and do it!
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from mephistoII:
Could you please explain your rationale for how you decided upon the 1-2-3 formation which I have circled on your chart? To be clear, it was used to construct your "brown" downward sloping channel. On my chart, I selected the bar after "your #3 pt" as "my #1 point", since I figured the higher high was a logical place for the start of a new channel. And perhaps I didn't bring up the ES chart here until after this actual point in time today - can hindsight play tricks on a person? And am I just splitting hairs here anyway?
Quote from mephistoII:
Finally, the above leads to a question on "housekeeping". Does this refer to going back and making adjustments to one's annotations, as future price action changes the "chartscape"?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
I chose the particular Point One as the beginning of the Brown Down Channel as that was the point of the FTT of the Green Up Channel. If we believe that an FTT marks the point of change in market sentiment, then it stands to reason that we would want to begin our opposite direction channel at that very point. One could have chosen to begin another channel at the point you chose, as it also marks an FTT of the Green up Channel. I simply neglected to annotate it on my chart. If you did not 'bring up the ES Chart' until after price had passed my Point One, then it would most assuredly make better sense to begin your annotations from the current point in time - as you did.
The only time I 'alter' my channels is when I think I have an FTT only to discover I have encountered a flaw. FTT's do not 'move' locations. We either have an FTT or we do not. Depending on price action, one might see a 'better' channel form. In such an environment, I simply draw another channel in a different color.
Good Trading to you.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
I chose the particular Point One as the beginning of the Brown Down Channel as that was the point of the FTT of the Green Up Channel. ...
- Spydertrader
No attachment? It shows in the attach file text box, which I browsed to. Trying again. If it doesn't show this time, what am I doing wrong?
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
snip...
Quote from Spydertrader:
If we believe that an FTT marks the point of change in market sentiment, then it stands to reason that we would want to begin our opposite direction channel at that very point.
- Spydertrader [/B]
Channel Mechanics Question:
I'm starting to see ftt's now (caught the one near the end of the day) but often
I'm a bar or two removed from the actual FTT that I see on Spyder's charts.
My question is when I draw the new channel, do I use the FTT I drew, knowing it
is a bar or two late, or should I draw the new point one from the actual FTT?
TIA,
Doug
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
C99,
Quote from C99:
I understand how an FTT makes a logical point one, but does a point one have to be an FTT? If we get a bar that extends fully to the LTL or even expands the channel and then prices reverse, can that be a valid point 1, or should the new RTL be drawn from the following bar that failed to traverse?
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from spooz_trader1:
C99,
I posted this snippet a while back in Journal 2...
spooz
This may be of use to someone. I use 2 versions of the 5 min chart. First one
is exactly as Spyder describes and shows in all his excellent annotated charts.
Sometimes though I find myself missing the forest - all I see is trees i.e.
zoomed in excessively with lots of channels/tapes.
By having a second cleaner version of the chart to refer to as well, I get to
see a better overall picture of the day. On the forest chart you are concerned
with a better quality FTT vs every FTT when it comes to a physical trade, your
projected channel lines allow you to end up seeing more potent FTTs with
improved clarity and nailing them in a relaxed mode.
The forest view shows the wider channels and they tend to stick until the next
potent FTT which will result in a new channel.
To be clear here, this is only an aid if you find over channeling is blurring
the vision. There will be more FTT trades on the table - this is merely an easy
way to see a subset of the available superset.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from rateesquad:
i think that would explain it. Great help by the way. Now I know how exactly BO works. Thanks
Quote from Spydertrader:
I define a BO as price breaking through the right side trend line, and remaining outside the channel for at least one bar.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from EstebanUno:
Spyder, wasn't the Green Up Channel broken very significantly by 10:05?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from C99:
I understand how an FTT makes a logical point one, but does a point one have to be an FTT? If we get a bar that extends fully to the LTL or even expands the channel and then prices reverse, can that be a valid point 1, or should the new RTL be drawn from the following bar that failed to traverse?
Quote from C99:
At this resolution, should I be looking at multi-bar volume trends, or intrabar pace changes? TIA.
__________________
Quote from dougcs:
My question is when I draw the new channel, do I use the FTT I drew, knowing it is a bar or two late, or should I draw the new point one from the actual FTT?
__________________
Quote from mikeytrader:
This may be of use to someone. I use 2 versions of the 5 min chart. First one is exactly as Spyder describes and shows in all his excellent annotated charts. Sometimes though I find myself missing the forest - all I see is trees i.e. zoomed in excessively with lots of channels/tapes.
By having a second cleaner version of the chart to refer to as well, I get to see a better overall picture of the day. On the forest chart you are concerned with a better quality FTT vs every FTT when it comes to a physical trade, your projected channel lines allow you to end up seeing more potent FTTs with improved clarity and nailing them in a relaxed mode.
The forest view shows the wider channels and they tend to stick until the next potent FTT which will result in a new channel.
To be clear here, this is only an aid if you find over channeling is blurring the vision. There will be more FTT trades on the table - this is merely an easy way to see a subset of the available superset.
. Keeping in mind the day can
have several variations, usually it will have some form of an "M" or "W". That
may be helpful when drawing charts in real time and seeing the big picture.
Quote from Aurum:
Spyder's definition of a breakout. In the picture above, it's where the price crosses the RTL of the long channel.
There are a lot of things about trading that I am still in doubt about but one thing I have finally resolved for certain is the question of volume. I have read many many posts on here debating whether volume is significant or not. There is no longer any doubt in my mind whatsoever that if you are not monitoring volume you are seriously missing the boat.
Quote from makosgu:
This is a months down the line type of thing... Snip. . . I have snapshot below of my solution that partially fixes the indicator you posted. As usual, I had to write new code to generate the following real time stream as captured below.
This context is at Bid/Ask Pair resolution. Snip. . . But as the syllabus dictates, these are for later...
Regards,
MAK
I have a pile of print out of Q&A between DKM and Jack about gaussian. I
printed it out because it looked interesting but I was unable to understand any
of the Qs or As. Yesterday I read them again and I found out they were written
in English, aha!
Quote from nkhoi:
I have a pile of print out of Q&A between DKM and Jack about gaussian. I printed it out because it looked interesting but I was unable to understand any of the Qs or As. Yesterday I read them again and I found out they were written in English, aha!
__________________
Today's ES Chart
Attached.
__________________
I post this chart for inspiration.
How to squeeze $1.20 out of a .30 range.
wax on wax off, wax on wax off.
Have a great weekend everyone and remeber we can be found in the ET live chat
room daily.
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-01-05/Joab05.png
Today's chart. So I made my first volume assisted identification in real
time. The first circled area I identified as a flaw instead of an FTT based on
the decline in volume after the volatility expansion, and the second as an FTT
based on the increasing black volume as price rose. Is this thinking correct?
Next week I plan I getting my FTT labels color coded like spyder's to make it
easier to ID the FTT with the proper channel. I also plan on trying to ID more
of the minor FTT's.
Last Q- should we be keeping the daily log sheets yet, or am I doing everything
I should be right now by just drawing channels, looking at volume, and finding
the FTT's?
Good weekend all.
Quote from C99:
Today's chart. So I made my first volume assisted identification in real time. The first circled area I identified as a flaw instead of an FTT based on the decline in volume after the volatility expansion, and the second as an FTT based on the increasing black volume as price rose. Is this thinking correct?
Next week I plan I getting my FTT labels color coded like spyder's to make it easier to ID the FTT with the proper channel. I also plan on trying to ID more of the minor FTT's.
Last Q- should we be keeping the daily log sheets yet, or am I doing everything I should be right now by just drawing channels, looking at volume, and finding the FTT's?
Good weekend all.
My annotations normally correspond fairly well with Spyder's. Today I did
notice some significant differences. I don't see a problem with this as the
outcome was the same: seeing where the market turns.
I wonder if seeing it differently as I have would cause some problems in the
future as we add more tools. I have attached my ES chart below.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from jack hershey:
snip:
When you HOLD to a BO (on the retrace from FTT to the LTL) and then have 20 more minutes in the Reversal dominant traverse following the retrace (non dom) you are in the groove.
snip:
Quote from R/R:
I am having trouble picturing the above sequence, but I am far away from being in the groove.
Shouldn't the part in parentheses read: (on the retrace from the RTL to FTT)?
Doing some reading tonite and have a question which I hope is applicable to
our current discussions. The following is a snip from the closed thread titled
"Jack Hershey Trading" by OP Nwbprop:
Snip from Grob109,
"Your scale from now on is 2 points on ES. Arrange the dis[play from top to
bottom as follows: Price, volume MACD, slow STOC and Fast STOC."
I'm pretty sure this is the second time I have seen mention of doing this, and I
can make no sense of it. Is this suggesting to scale the Y axis of the price bar
chart region to 2.0 ES points, as it says? Doing so on my charts creates an
utterly useless myopic view. Is this a typo that is meaning 20 pts?
Sorry again - I'm one of these people who can get hung up on the smallest of
details. Can someone clear up what I'm missing here. As usual, tia ...
mephistoII,
Quote from mephistoII:
Doing some reading tonite and have a question which I hope is applicable to our current discussions. The following is a snip from the closed thread titled "Jack Hershey Trading" by OP Nwbprop:
Snip from Grob109,
"Your scale from now on is 2 points on ES. Arrange the dis[play from top to bottom as follows: Price, volume MACD, slow STOC and Fast STOC."
I'm pretty sure this is the second time I have seen mention of doing this, and I can make no sense of it. Is this suggesting to scale the Y axis of the price bar chart region to 2.0 ES points, as it says? Doing so on my charts creates an utterly useless myopic view. Is this a typo that is meaning 20 pts?
Sorry again - I'm one of these people who can get hung up on the smallest of details. Can someone clear up what I'm missing here. As usual, tia ...
Chart scaling
What you want to see is 10 points of price action on the screen to keep the
charts looking similar every day. Using a different scale each time it distorts
the moves and your perspective. Jack calls it getting calibrated. On large range
days you have to adjust it some, but usually 10 points will work fine.
Using Qcharts that makes your scale divisions on the side read in 2 point
increments: 1414, 1416 1418 1420, 1422, 1424. Different platforms might read
different.
Regards - EZ
Re: Chart scaling
Using Qcharts that makes your scale divisions on the side read in 2 point increments: 1414, 1416 1418 1420, 1422, 1424.
Re: Re: Chart scaling
Quote from Pr0crast:
My Qcharts spaces them every 1 point. If you know the location of the option to switch this to 2 points, I'd like to know! TIA.
__________________
Quote from Ezzy:
What you want to see is 10 points of price action on the screen to keep the charts looking similar every day. Using a different scale each time it distorts the moves and your perspective. Jack calls it getting calibrated. On large range days you have to adjust it some, but usually 10 points will work fine.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: Re: Re: Chart scaling
Quote from Spydertrader:
I was so close.
Quote from makosgu:
EXACTLY!
The objective is to become calibrated to a standard volatility so that you develop a sense of how the day is developing. Chart programs have a funny way of stretching the data across the whole screen so as to look like the software is worth the money it charges. The problem is that when we have a range of volatility that is less then standard, you want to be able to easily "see" it. Additionally, I scale the size so as to avoid being hyper. Trading a 5M chart shouldn't be hyper and thus the picture you are
Regards,
MAK
After debriefing yesterday's session, I've noticed a few things I thought I
would comment on for discussion.
First off, I'm working hard to indentify FTT's as soon as I can. Sometimes I
spot them in the same 5 min bar they occur, sometimes a bar or so later. And of
course, sometimes what the chart "tells me" quickly turns out to be a non-FTT.
In the past, I used to delete the "non-FTT's" from my chart to keep my chart
"clean". Yesterday, I decided to leave them in and simply change the text to
"FTT!", my shorthand for "not FTT". [I'll probably change the "not" symbol to
something that makes more sense but this was the first char that came to my mind
in real-time ] Regardless of the
symbol that I use, now when I debrief I can study the "what wasn't a FTT"
sequences along with "what was a FTT" sequences. Obviously, this is clear in
hindsight but I'm always thinking real-time.
My second observation is also clear in hindsight but a tough one (for me) in
real-time. On your charts, go back and look where FTT's occur. Notice that on a
lot of them, price changed color (B->R or R->B) intrabar. Also notice in a lot
of cases, price pushed higher (or lower) before retracing and changing color.
It's obvious that a shift has occurred and I can explain in laymen's terms
("more buyers came in", or "more sellers came in") but I'm not sure I can
explain it using the PV relation. Maybe someone can help me see it. In other
words, how do you use the PV relation to explain intrabar volume changes?
Have a good weekend,
spooz
re: "price changed color (B->R or R->B) intrabar"
This got me wondering whether the picture would change with constant-volume or
tick charts. Of course, those would be an arbitrary division of the day, too.
But that would make price the only consideration ;-)
My bars are centered around a time, say 11:00 a.m.,
such that a 5-min bar covers 10:57:30 to 11:02:30, but other charts may begin a
new bar/candle at 11:00 a.m.
Quote from spooz_trader1:
After debriefing yesterday's session, I've noticed a few things I thought I would comment on for discussion.
First off, I'm working hard to indentify FTT's as soon as I can. Sometimes I spot them in the same 5 min bar they occur, sometimes a bar or so later. And of course, sometimes what the chart "tells me" quickly turns out to be a non-FTT. In the past, I used to delete the "non-FTT's" from my chart to keep my chart "clean". Yesterday, I decided to leave them in and simply change the text to "FTT!", my shorthand for "not FTT". [I'll probably change the "not" symbol to something that makes more sense but this was the first char that came to my mind in real-time
My second observation is also clear in hindsight but a tough one (for me) in real-time. On your charts, go back and look where FTT's occur. Notice that on a lot of them, price changed color (B->R or R->B) intrabar. Also notice in a lot of cases, price pushed higher (or lower) before retracing and changing color. It's obvious that a shift has occurred and I can explain in laymen's terms ("more buyers came in", or "more sellers came in") but I'm not sure I can explain it using the PV relation. Maybe someone can help me see it. In other words, how do you use the PV relation to explain intrabar volume changes?
Have a good weekend,
spooz
spoo,
At this stage I pretty much only follow the PVR on the 2 min YM.
If it's meant to be our leading indicator it only makes sense to do this.
I think that the 5m PVR has another role as so far, I've only seen it be
effective on breakouts.
but of course what do i know
Trying to see PV relationship at work
Can somebody who is consistently successful at analyzing the PV relationship
please post (preferably more than 1) example(s) of an exact use of the PV
relationship when analyzing charts. I’ve literally been studying the PV
relationship on and off for 4 years. I have yet to see any consistent way to use
it. I understand the Jokari window and in principal it makes sense to me.
Actually seeing it play out is still a mystery to me.
As best I can tell from many discussions, one way to implement use of the PV
relationship is to compare adjacent 5min bars for increasing/decreasing volume
for clues. Every time I have ever tried doing this, the results appear virtually
random. That is, half the time PV seems to follow the Jokari window, half the
time it doesn’t. This is not useful.
I have tried comparing the anticipated FTT bar with the prior bar, the FTT bar
with the following bar, and tried to see it in terms of Gaussians.
Here is a typical type of study I have done: I have 3 days worth of 5min ES bars
printed out. I counted up the total FTT’s I have annotated. I counted about 30
of them. Then I compared volume on the FTT bar to the following bar. 14 were
higher on volume and 16 lower. I broke it down further and created a matrix of
the 4 bar combos: green price bar followed by red price bar, green by green, red
by green and red by red. I did this separately for uptrends and downtrends. Then
I did the same analysis on the FTT bar compared to the bar before the FTT. No
matter how I look at it, it still looks random to me.
Sometimes the volume on a bar that ends a trend is the highest volume bar of the
run, sometimes it isn’t. I have my wife sit next to me during the market and I
talk aloud to her what I am seeing in real time. I find that what I’m saying
lacks objectivity when it comes to PV.
Also, as a related challenge, PRV can be a real fooler. Lets say a green bar
just closed. Next bar opens and price is ticking upward and PRV at 30 sec’s
makes it clear that volume will be much higher. Often as not, price turns around
and drops on very high volume. Again, this seems like a 50/50 deal, so not
terribly useful.
The conclusion I always come to is that it’s total intuition for those who make
this work. I sincerely hope that I can be shown what I'm doing wrong.
Thanks and sorry for long post, it's hard to be succint and precise
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from Joab:
spoo,
At this stage I pretty much only follow the PVR on the 2 min YM.
If it's meant to be our leading indicator it only makes sense to do this.
I think that the 5m PVR has another role as so far, I've only seen it be effective on breakouts.
but of course what do i know
Re: Trying to see PV relationship at work
Quote from bundlemaker:
Sometimes the volume on a bar that ends a trend is the highest volume bar of the run, sometimes it isn’t. [/B]
This is a general post to cover several items.
How the journal is going is really terrific.
These are just notes on current conversation; don't assign any value to the
order.
The PV relation can be best exemplified by lookig at patterns within channels
and the commn patterns that mark the ends of trends. Do the three pennants first
and see how they and the BO shows the P, V relation.
Next go to dominant and non-dominant traverse of channels of trends. Notice how
lateral channels are traversed symmetrically.
I will write all of this up in the E & E book.
The "calibrating" of the mind of the trader is very important and in many ways.
I think we can use "NB's for this in the future. (Nota Bene).
as you shift the scale by dragging up and down you have two choices for gettin
the final setting You can come from 5 point intervals or 1 point intervals. I go
from 5 to 2 and keep it so it is on the verge of going back to 5. Same for YM.
20 to 10 and on the verge of 20.
The width and separation of bars is equally important. Start tight and ease back
until your anxiety disappears. Not really but keep the bars sort of thick and
bold and have some space between them so life is not so sudden and all clumped
together. Annotating is easier too.
The great advantage of long posts that are clear and crisp is that they show
interrelationships of things. They als prevent people from collecting quips that
somehow turn into "rules" (they aren't rules.)
One thing that is definitely happening and is getting across is that
"conclusions" are what we get from looking at data sets. The attached charts
show many conclusions in contexts and as they are viewed it appears people are
looking at the data sets that comprise the conclusion of the moment.
There is some humor in another thread about the finite conclusion set. I did it;
I admit it. Eually dry was the Excel commentary on the data set listing of
combos and perms.
The deal is that these are found as pairs in the mind because they come from
your subconscious as you do reps. If a person sits and maks an excel list of
datasets, then he is doing someting that is extremely important as a consequence
of doing "organization". Doing organization is a drill for sure.
If you do logs. You begin to connect the conscious to the unconscious and the
unconscious learns to deliver what you need when you need it during RMH. If you
do the P, V above, you will "wake up", literally and also one morning in the
future you will wake up and find that you have completed some "organizing".
You never get "disorganized" you get "capacity" instead.
Lets consider the process of maximizing your iterative refinement. It is clear
and apparent that the people in this forum who contribute support "have the
goods". It is a good idea to ramp up to where they are in a critical path
method. Make your effort continuously and thoroughly. This gives a lot of AHA's
and they are frequent. Make use of everything to "keep the silver polished".
Look at the day. Prep and keep the sheet handy. Log and annotate. Skip making
corrections just log the correction. Leave the mess on the chart. Use colors and
widths to make it clear. On the log try for entries every five minutes and/or
three enteries between trade actions. Use 4 pages of a log you constructed to
start with. Post the logs as frequently as you post charts. Partial charts and
partial logs are great too. You can cover up the right side for example where
the number of contracts are. Lets not freak out the general public and make the
news.
This puts the thread at a place where there is a lot of transference by example.
Now consider he relationsip of the parts: the prep; the log; the annotated
charts all "calibrted"; and the debriefing.
You make more money debriefing than at any other time. Take the tick
improvemnts; take the 2 tick improvements, take the point improvements; take the
channel trend improvements.
Say you learn something debriefing. An aha. That applies for every day for the
rest of your life. I am not talking about BS quips.
I am talking about how debriefing is a non pressure time where you "connect the
dots"
I am the site liaison for a school building a 300 person atomic bomb shelter in
Greenwich. I notice that they are not vibrating the concrete pours on day one
truck one. There is no equipment on site to do it. It is in the specs. This aha
then corrects all pours from that point on.
As you debrief you mark everyting up with a clored pen and collect stuff in your
journal. Collect every right conclusion that goes wth a data set and put it in
an organized place. you are putting it, for sure in your conscious and
unconscious for later useage. Writing it down and noting it where it occurred
makes mental pictures too. Cardboard boxes were invented for the storing of
three ring binders from last year or 6 months ago. If you get a bright idea and
go back and look up something, it is happening because your mind is coming
together and you go find the material source to reinforce things. Write on the
source. My botanical books are bent, spindled, and mutilated. But if I see
something in a place I write that down on the exhibit in the book.
The photo trains I keep on plants are annotated too. I note on the backs of
watercolors where I did them and what photo may have backed up the composition.
You debrief and find what is there to see and understand. This becomes part of
your knowledge and it is skill related and connected because it is i the context
of skill utilization.
Trading is not inventing and backtesting. That is the world of gimmicks and
plastic toys.
Trading is building.
A ew posts back I quoted five items that coul have been written in a debriefing.
They would have extended a trade for more than 20 minutes at a moderate paced
period of high sentimant. tis is not a 1 tick or 2 tick matter. This is a multi
point matter over a period of about 30 minutes.
Use this conclusion, this set of several conclusions when possible. The fact is
that they are all usable as a group sequence every day 240 days a year.
Watching the chart, doing the routine, annotating the chart making the chart say
something; logging what the monitoring says and then debriefing and having the
notes on the day's work product and doing journalling is the process that IS the
learning process and the results are IN YOUR MIND and availble for the rest of
your life.
Some people who are reading this have seen it all before and repeatedly. They
are saying that reading it is a good use of their time.
You will become one of these people and you will notice that you are anwsering
questions for yourself all of the time. You will turn to be at inquery. So
share.
Be sue to print the journal here once in a while and annotate the print. Bind it
and upate it. This makes you mind assimilate more effectively
At some point person comes to the place where he realizes that he can really
groove. He does come to understand that the critical path for making money
involves being top notch and really "on it"
Lets look at that place of knowledge, skills and experience. It deal with
performance that is related to effectiveness and efficiency with regard to
optimizing what is offered by the markets.
It is comfortable and excitiing and a lot of fun. And it is not a series of "Oh
,I could have done that better". That is because of the high contrast when
compared to the beginnings. And there is only the standard of taking what is
offered.
The extraction is always nearly the best and it is not a consideration of this
flakey thing or that flakey thing.
You are trading with a given contract level that can change during the may
simply because of market capacity. The throttle is working all the time. You act
with precision because three steps have preceded actions. your data sets are
SUFFICIENT and not one ounce over or under the prescription for the moment. the
sets are "just right in composition and amount of elements". the frequency of
your passes are tuned to the demand for performing the job at that time.
There is no guessing or need to be anxious about anything whatsoever. There is
no need to "control". There is no need to "respond".
You are an operator of your capital and it works for you all the time as it is
possible to get the job done.
So you have a lot of money. That is just inevitable becaue of how huge the
resource is and that yu can have all that is offered. It is not like anyother
business in the world.
You are operating a no cost business that just gives you money all the time.
The objective ofthis journal is to close the gap between your present
performance and the potential that is there for everyone.
Spyder explained this situation succinctly. You make the choices to work to get
the knowledge, skills and experience. Use the time wisely, he says.
Re: Re: Trying to see PV relationship at work
Quote from Bearbelly:
The huge majority of the time a move ends on less volume than a previous bar. This is one of the best indicators out there, imho.
I have not done any studies other than observation. For a long time I have noticed that the lowest bar in a trend has less volume than a previous bar a huge amount of the time. I am talking about 5 min. charts as that is all I trade. Not sure about larger or smaller timeframes. I am so confident of this that I will stay in a trade until I see this happen.
Re: Trying to see PV relationship at work
Quote from bundlemaker:
Can somebody who is consistently successful at analyzing the PV relationship please post (preferably more than 1) example(s) of an exact use of the PV relationship when analyzing charts.
__________________
is this R2R?
R2R
Quote from nkhoi:
is this R2R?
__________________
Re: Re: Trying to see PV relationship at work
Quote from Spydertrader:
Attached, please find a chart (ES 5 min, Thursday, 01-04-2006, Final Bars of the Day) snippet showing one of the best examples of the PV Relationship. As the Pace (contracts traded per Bar) of Volume increases, so too, does (the pace of) Price Bar change increase. As the Pace (contracts traded per Bar) of Volume decreases, so too, does (the pace of) Price Bar change decrease. To put it in conventional terms, black volume (and price) represent the dominant traverse of the uptrend. The decreasing volume (and price) represents the non-dominant traverse (or retrace - highlighted yellow). When Volume returns to increasing (red) Volume we have our confirmed reversal - highlighted green.
- Spydertrader
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
I found the following excerpt of a post by Mak regarding PV and Gaussians to
be a real gem:
"For a while I didn't understand the concept until I realized PV and also had to
relax a bit as far as observing is concerned. So with channels, you see that the
channel is the geometric context for where price is operating. The Volume is the
gas pedal so to speak of price operating within the container. In a channel you
will see price bounce from one side to the other until it stops. When you look
at volume you will see that in one particular direction of the bounce from one
side of the channel to the opposite side, each consecutive volume bar will be
more or less larger than the previous bar. On the bounce back, the volume bars
will have a general decreasing progression. You will have to look somewhat
loosely because as you will notice, the migration from one side to the other is
riddled with stalled/inside bars. They are easy to pick off because you will see
that the volume does not follow the progression and additionally the price bar
will not extend beyond either side of the previous price bar.
The framework of the gaussians is that every channel has the dominant where the
progression of sequentially increasing volume bars denote the dominant direction
of the channel. The sequentially decreasing volume bars are the retrace. Thus a
R2B means INCREASING RED VOLUME bars followed by DECREASING BLACK VOLUME BARS. A
B2R is INCREASING BLACK VOLUME bars followed by DECREASING RED VOLUME bars. A
LONG channel is a repeating sequential series of B2Rs whereas a SHORT channel is
a repeating sequential series of R2Bs. The transition between a SHORT and LONG
channel is immediately picked off by B2B where you have DECREASING BLACK VOLUME
bars followed by INCREASING BLACK VOLUME bars or an R2R where you have
DECREASING RED VOLUME bars followed by INCREASING RED VOLUME bars..."
I hope others find it useful and apologize if it has been previously posted.
Yet another FTT/Gaussian combo example. I posted a less-annotated version of
this snippet (ES 5 min) back in Journal 2. The emphasis then was on the
fast-paced pink channel showing a FTT.
This also is a cool example of gaussians as well. Three almost textbook gaussian
mounds pushing price down. Note where price expands the pink LTL, vol is
peaking. And the next gaussian mound peak can't match it. In other words, it
will take more vol to push price lower. Maybe a good example of PV: Vol (peaks)
decreasing -> trend will change. Finally, the next gaussian is sure enough a
B2B.
[EDIT: updated snippet to remove FTT mistake - sorry]
spooz
This has been a wonderful series of posts on the basic volume relationship to
price trending within the context of channels. R/R, what great timing for
reposting the excerpt by Mak, right after Spyder's example. Thanks.
I'd like to link some of these posts in a journal I'm keeping. How does one link
to a specific post? The address bar on my browser (Firefox) shows the address to
the page in the thread, but not to the specific post. How do I get the address
of a specific post?
I'm really enjoying the constructive, nuts and bolts tone that this thread is
developing. Congrats to all!
Quote from bundlemaker:
... This is certainly helpful, and begs the following question; which is more along the lines of what I should have asked in the first place: how does this assist in the timely identification of FTT's? In your example chart the confirmation bar you point out is 15 min's after the FTT is hypothesized. My current belief system tells me that's not terribly useful. ...
Quote from R/R:
I hope others find it useful and apologize if it has been previously posted. [/B]
There is already so much
documented material available, that I often end up off the beaten path (i.e.,
link->link->link etc) and leave the screen shaking my head - lol. But the group
participation is very helpful in keeping one focused on what is currently under
discussion.
FTT/HVS
Spyder,
Thank you for the excellent journal.
My question is:
On the chart you posted, point one for the brown channel is not labeled as an
FTT. Can we start without an FTT or is this point an FTT in another channel?
Thank you
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: FTT/HVS
Quote from Lightbody:
... My question is:
On the chart you posted, point one for the brown channel is not labeled as an FTT. Can we start without an FTT or is this point an FTT in another channel? ...
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Yet another FTT/Gaussian combo example. I posted a less-annotated version of this snippet (ES 5 min) back in Journal 2. The emphasis then was on the fast-paced pink channel showing a FTT.
This also is a cool example of gaussians as well. Three almost textbook gaussian mounds pushing price down. Note where price expands the pink LTL, vol is peaking. And the next gaussian mound peak can't match it. In other words, it will take more vol to push price lower. Maybe a good example of PV: Vol (peaks) decreasing -> trend will change. Finally, the next gaussian is sure enough a B2B.
spooz
Question on Post links
Quote from EstebanUno:
How does one link to a specific post?
__________________
Thanks Spydertrader, now I see how to get to the post for linking.
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Maybe a good example of PV: Vol (peaks) decreasing -> trend will change. Finally, the next gaussian is sure enough a B2B.
spooz
Quote from Moz:
...Thought this might be useful as well....
Here is the HTML code zipped up for the bar id page referred to previously. For TS users I may have the code that labels the bars directly in place on the chart.
Thanks for the bar reference coding for use on the ES.
I shade the matrix to show some levels of money velocity. This will come into
play later.
Getting the relationship of the price and volume annotations up to speed is
beginning to appear nowadays.
as the relationship of dominant traverse and non dominant retraces gets clearer,
the R's and B's on the Guassians are also visible. Finally you see the R2R's and
B2B's as a sequence of a retrace (non dom) followed by a dominant first
traverse.
All of this is in synch with the FTT then BO as seen on the channel in which the
traverses are taking place.
this all takes on a deja vu character as your mind begins to lead your senses.
It is an amaing transition to come t the place where you "tell" yourself what to
"see" instead of "seeing" what to "tell" yourself.
This thread is achieving what we desire for everyone to BE, DO and HAVE.
By keeping the focus on price and volume, and allowing you to continually soak
in the depth of the possible knowledge and understanding, the market will
finally begin to "appear" for you in its fullness and coloration.
It is all there for you and it is such a rich and valuable experience to see the
participants enabling others and being enabled in return. Gift after gift.
I can assure you that there is much much more richness in this perspective that
you will enjoy acquiring as this year goes by.
Quote from jack hershey:
This thread is achieving what we desire for everyone to BE, DO and HAVE.
By keeping the focus on price and volume, and allowing you to continually soak in the depth of the possible knowledge and understanding, the market will finally begin to "appear" for you in its fullness and coloration
...
I can assure you that there is much much more richness in this perspective that you will enjoy acquiring as this year goes by.
Quote from Pr0crast:
snip
Consequently I am generating a very useful document that organizes the content of each journal topic into a very accessible, readable format for reference. I look forward to sharing that as our focused study of the FTT and channels comes to a close at the end of January (as per the syllabus).
snip
-Eric in Tucson
Re: Re: FTT/HVS
Quote from EstebanUno:
Spyder answered this recently saying point 1 is not necessarily at the FTT. I'd link to the post, but I don't know how to do that. So here's a link to the page. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&pagenumber=36
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Re: Re: FTT/HVS
Quote from Lightbody:
We changed channels without an FTT from a blue up channel to a brown channel with no FTT marked on the chart.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: FTT/HVS
Quote from Spydertrader:
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: FTT/HVS
Quote from Lightbody:
Then, as I see it now, you labeled point one (brown) when the FTT (green) occurred and you drew the brown channel, is that correct?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: FTT/HVS
LB .... can you see the light red channel depicting the short traverse, it is
drawn in using NOW (prior days close and bar 1 of the new day) Great now you see
it .... the volume tells you that the direction has become dominant, the retrace
volume slips in as we move through bars 4,5,6, (showing up as HVS) and finally
get to 7 which is labeled pt 3, but what has happened? .... The now channel
(thin RED) has been adjusted to the correct slope and direction meaning you now
can SEE what a PT 3 adjustment is all about. we worked with two bars to give us
a preliminary vector, and as the market moves into the day we recieve
information to allow us to NAIL the BROWN channel (A PT3 Channel) into place and
ROLL from there. The same sequence happens all day long that is what explains
all those pesky lines spy draws ALL DAY LONG
HTH
Regards,
EX
[/QUOTE]
oops... no VOLUME in that previous chart, you can check the volume sequence here for the morning in question.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: FTT/HVS
[/QUOTE]
Quote from excav8tr:
LB .... can you see the light red channel depicting the short traverse, it is drawn in using NOW (prior days close and bar 1 of the new day) Great now you see it .... the volume tells you that the direction has become dominant, the retrace volume slips in as we move through bars 4,5,6, (showing up as HVS) and finally get to 7 which is labeled pt 3, but what has happened? .... The now channel (thin RED) has been adjusted to the correct slope and direction meaning you now can SEE what a PT 3 adjustment is all about. we worked with two bars to give us a preliminary vector, and as the market moves into the day we recieve information to allow us to NAIL the BROWN channel (A PT3 Channel) into place and ROLL from there. The same sequence happens all day long that is what explains all those pesky lines spy draws ALL DAY LONG
HTH
Regards,
EX
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Understood
Quote from excav8tr:
oops... no VOLUME in that previous chart, you can check the volume sequence here for the morning in question.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: FTT/HVS
Quote from Lightbody:
That is, when or how do we know to do a PT 3 adjustment?
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: FTT/HVS
Quote from excav8tr:
That is, when or how do we know to do a PT 3 adjustment?
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Today's ES Chart
Spydertrader, how did you identify the low of the 15:00 bar on Friday as a
new pt 1 (for green channel)?
Thanks
Im gonna guess that it didnt become pt 1 until pt 3 showed up.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Im gonna guess that it didnt become pt 1 until pt 3 showed up.
Pt 1 is a full traverse of the down (brown) channel followed by a full retrace (pt2)so I see no reason to look for a new channel until the ftt (pt3) shows up but what do I know.
Re: FTT/HVS
Quote from Lightbody:
Spyder,
Thank you for the excellent journal.
My question is:
On the chart you posted, point one for the brown channel is not labeled as an FTT. Can we start without an FTT or is this point an FTT in another channel?
Thank you
Re: Re: FTT/HVS
Quote from R/R:
There have been several responses to your question but none mentioned the aqua(?) taped long channel shown on your chart near the end of the day Wednesday. Just after your green point 2 and HVS there is an attempt to traverse the taped channel which failed. Therefore I think there should be an FTT shown indicating the reverse to short at your brown point 1.
Perhaps this is the FTT you were searching for.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Morning gaussians... notice the B2B
Attached is a chart zoomed in on this am. I think I'm getting the hang of it if this is done correctly. THe 10:25 bar, which is red in color, I have just sort of ignored colorwise because it's at the bottom of the Gaussian. Doing so reveals a G2G (or B2B) which was a plain precursor to the ensuing rally.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from dkm:
Spydertrader, how did you identify the low of the 15:00 bar on Friday as a new pt 1 (for green channel)?
__________________
We're definitely on a roll here.
I had composed a rather lengthy post about today's journey, but came across
this and thought it more useful to post...
"if a man ... be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties"
-Francis Bacon
I leave you with my chart for those who are comparing notes.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Today's ES Chart
Attached. Note the (red Circle) sym Pennant break out at the start of the
afternoon run up. Note volume as well at that time.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Here's mine for today. The green channel was carried over from yesterday and
the orange down channel is a longer term down channel starting on 1/3/07. Volume
made a little more sense to me today, but it was still more in retrospect than
in real-time.
BM- our charts are looking pretty similiar. I would think that's a good thing.
Spy- Bar 43 I have new 3? labelled. You can see I drew a new channel w/ that as
the point 3 and left the original as well. Later in the day, the boundries of
the original were more respected. Is this proper protocol? Leave both and let
the market determine which is more relevant? I would also appreciate any insight
into the two WTF's I have labelled. I felt lost during those periods.
Thanks.
ym 010807
2min ym
5min ES
On 3 occasions this afternoon I identified an FTT then had second thoughts about
the validity of the decision. I reversed on 2 of them and on both occasions
ended up with two small losses. Net result -1.25 for the day. The subjectivity
of FTT identification prior to seeing B2B or R2R confirmation continues to be a
problem.
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from dkm:
Spydertrader, how did you identify the low of the 15:00 bar on Friday as a new pt 1 (for green channel)?
Thanks
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from bundlemaker:
I had composed a rather lengthy post about today's journey, but came across this and thought it more useful to post...
"if a man ... be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties" -Francis Bacon
I leave you with my chart for those who are comparing notes.
Quote from jack hershey:
See attached.
Annother will follow.
Quote from jack hershey:
Settlement has just occured for mutual funds and hedge funds
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
Quote from jack hershey:
Here is the second response.
Quote from dkm:
5min ES
On 3 occasions this afternoon I identified an FTT then had second thoughts about the validity of the decision. I reversed on 2 of them and on both occasions ended up with two small losses. Net result -1.25 for the day. The subjectivity of FTT identification prior to seeing B2B or R2R confirmation continues to be a problem.
Quote from C99:
Bar 43 I have new 3? labelled. You can see I drew a new channel w/ that as the point 3 and left the original as well. Later in the day, the boundries of the original were more respected. Is this proper protocol?
Re: ym 010807
Quote from dkm:
2min ym
Quote from jack hershey:
Those two bars set you up for 12 more bars.
The two bars gave you a RTL for the traverse and then you got to do the channel (put in LTL and that makes you ready to see FTT's on the traverse. This is a pt 2 of the next heavier channel. and the nondominant traverse will lead you to point 3 on this heavier channel. Then you can draw n the heavier channel; see traverses, failure and so on.
Re: Re: ym 010807
Quote from jack hershey:
I am going to mark this up a little.
My emphasis will be on the medium weight channels. It is the "attitude" of the market that is being carried along during the day. Tha is what you will see.
Then what you will see is how the YM is "telegraphing" to you the upcoming stuff on ES.
Quote from jack hershey:
If you are logging can you scan and post the scan except the part that says you have 50 contracts riding.
See DKM 1 chart on 2 mi YM.
I am using YM here because you can do both YM and ES.
Th YM will be anotated BEFORE the ES and all questionable stuff that you have
will be taken care of.
So the first concern I have about you is taken care of.
The concern is that you are going to be taking care of the market "attitude" and
be aware of it.
A day is divided into four attitudes or parts. W and M often describe this
attitude. Midday divieds tha am and pm.
Settlement is 1:15pm and the day, psychologically speaking, restarts the day.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from makosgu:
... Later on, I am gonna try and break it down channel by channel and annotate each bar and the volume analytics that went into it...
My second DKM 2 timed out.
Here is anothe try.
It contains only my notes on your annotations,
DKM 3 will contain the annotaion from my notes.
DKM 3 annotaes the DKM 2 notes.
Here I am showing the green forst channel.
Also see the missing FTT hat started the second channel when medium volume
wentinto effect AFTER the end of the blast of the extraordinary volume.
This month we are getting P and V straight and the annotation that is
associated.
The dkm noted FTT? that is th first of the day is now taken care of by attitude
and volume range considerations.
We see after the FTT of the green channel the BO and FBO associated with the
green channel
We got some channel 1, 2, 3 points from this all on the medium volume and its
corresponding money velocity.
The landscape is becoming dotted with Ftt's at this point as done by dkm.
Take each one in turn going from left to right. One is an FBO thenex is an FTT
for a newly drawn in channel, the third of the day drawn in pink (heliotrope).
At this point we go to the third volume range of the day Low and DU of midday. I
noted the volume levels on the volume chart.
What do we expect (meaning our subconscious coaches us to feel the situation).
We expect slow price pace and the old faithful CCC.
It is not a FTT graveyard.
So the tan channel is there following the pink channel. One blast gives you a
wide channel and you reversed off the volatility (unusual single bar).
DK has begun to annotate again . I would say that this is a shaky and unerving
time because of the recent just observing and not annotating hour or so. I
regard this as a very normal situation. and I m commenting to remove it from
future day's of annotating.
So you can see that the channels and this annotation of DKM's come to a place
where the traverse comes to the previously drawn RTL. This known as God's will
and it is always there as we see over and over. It is a reinforcing moment at
midday on low volume and it is a quiet time.
Thank you very much Jack.
I am reviewing my beliefs about this stuff each day; and each day it's clear
that my old mantra about nothing working is beginning to disolve.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Jack (or others),
Quote from jack hershey:
...
Here I am showing the green forst channel.
...
).
All this talk of YM this evening got me looking for the values for my YM rays
for the 2 min Chart. I searched my 150 megs of archives, and did about 6
searches on ET. So far this is what I found for YM, it is not complete, and I am
not sure the volume values are right. I saw it once penciled on a pace chart,
but poof...
I couldn't find an exact quote from Jack or Spyder setting YM2min Rays. Here is
what I found from a document on pace, quoting Jack. He said they are
"centerline" numbers, not range boundaries like he gave us for ES. ...hoping for
a clarification/confirmation or translation into range boundaries.
YM 2 min Chart
Volume............Meaning
?.......................VDU
80.....................DU
300...................Low
600...................Medium
1250..................High
?.......................Extreme
Quote from dkm:
The 3 trades that I referred to are as follows:
14:20 Short 1422.25
14:23 reversed to Long at 1422.75 -0.5
14:29 exit at 1422.50 -0.25
14:30 short 1422.25
14:40 exit at 1422.25 wash
14:56 long 1421
14:57 reversed 1420.25 -0.75
15:01 exit 1421.50 -1.25
scan of log attached
Syllabus
While I appreciate the input provided by so many contributors, I politely
refer everyone to the Thread Syllabus. We have scheduled discussions on
the YM for the beginning of February. I recommend taking the time to work
on ES Price and Volume (gaussians), rather than, jumping ahead. Discussions
which occur out of order have, in the past, created a confusing environment. In
addition, such an environment only increases the temptation to move ahead prior
to successfully building a strong foundation. Unless (and until) a trader has
the ES Price channels and Volume gaussians down cold, they should not
move ahead.
Again, I understand the level of frustration experienced by many by using
only a limited tool set. However, adding additional tools prior to the
correct time for doing so serves only to delay that frustration to a future
time. It does not eliminate it.
Good Trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Attached. Note the (red Circle) sym Pennant break out at the start of the afternoon run up. Note volume as well at that time.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from bi9foot:
I am wondering what might have caused such a discrepancy
__________________
So here is my bar by bar run down. I will put up as many as I can permit. I
will try to put up complete days (ie. 81 bars). This is the actual mental
annotations and reps that I go through. You will find different modus that I
have for different bars. PV is the crux of all of it as am calibrating to the
cycling surging and withdrawal of volume. The best illustration I liken PV to is
that channels are like tides. The tide has a definite direction (ie. towards
high, or towards low tide). In between low and high tide, you have the cycling
of surging and withdrawing water line (ie. advances toward high or low tide).
These are the dominants since the surges directly correspond to the advancing of
the front (ie. price).
Given this, here's the step by step as I recalled for friday...
Bar 1...
We have extraordinary volume. On extraordinary volume, price translates pretty
well. In other words you do not have your typical meandering back and forth.
Instead, the price translation is rather swift. Extraordinary volume with price
being below the open from the beginning of the bar, the trend is short. However,
I am on alert since the first several minutes out of the gate, I find riddled
with directional changes and various 3 bar formations. I did not have the
previous days carryover (a NO NO), but I carry on anyway since it does not
effect my modus...
Bar 2...
PRV DECReasing volume all through to the end of the bar. Immediately from the
get go, the DECReasing PRV volume flags that pt2 is possibly on the table.
Simultaneously and instantly I am on gaurd for 2 things, whether or not bar 2
will extend beyond the lo of bar 1 (ie. extension beyond lo is in the dominant
direction), or whether it will retrace back up to the hi of bar 1. Initially, it
shows signs of extending the lo but stops and finishes up. The point at which it
didn't extend the lo, I "KNEW" I had pt 2.
Bar 3...
PRV INCReasing volume...
I am on gaurd and looking for only two things; either it extends beyond the top
of bar 2, which would be the end of S1 and beginning of L2, or it ends the
retrace and begins the second traverse of the channel. I get the latter...
Annotate my pt3 and move forward to the next bar...
Bar 4...
PRV INCReasing volume...
From the get go it is biz as usual but then the bar turns. We started with INCR
RED but then the V turns BLACK with INCR volume. What happened here was the end
effect of the traverse was within the bar. I know this because I watched the
extension of the LO of bar 3 which is what I was expecting since I saw an INCR
PRV. However, the extension stops and begins retracing. Without having the
benefit of looking elsewhere, I am noting wether the lo of this bar is an FTT
for a new channel. I wait and see watching to see if my Bar 5 will show INCR PRV
to BO from my RTL.
Bar 5...
DECR PRV...
I wait and checkout whether it extends the top of Bar 4... It doesn't and
instead stalls... I know I am still in the retrace.
Bar 6...
INCR PRV...
Dominant occuring. The question is whether the DOMINANT will be BO from the S1
or a 3rd traverse of S1. From the open, it surges towards the LTL. Back in
biz...
Bar 7...
This bar actually started with INCR PRV and then migrated to DECR PRV...
From it's open, I am looking to see whether or not it will extend the LTL. From
the open, it doesn't extend the lo of bar 6. I am on alert because the pace is
extreme which means the bar is likely to have large volatility. I watch and
having not acted on the possible bar 6 FTT, my fall back is a XO of the RTL. As
soon as it XOs, I annotate that S1 is over and I plug in my pt1 for S2. Despite
being caught off gaurd by the DECR PRV, I am still on the RIGHT SIDE by
MONITORING the XO of my RTL... The top of bar 7 is my current pt2 and I am
looking to see whether bar 8 will extend it or retrace it to give me pt 3... I
want to be comfortable that L2 is a LONG and not a LATERAL/PENNAT so I am on
alert...
continued...
MAK!
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Hi Spyder,
Great thread and monumental effort. Huge thanks to you and others.
It has been mentioned many times on this thread the importance of price and
volume. The question that I have is why not use volume bars which give the
purest combination and price action and volume instead of fixed time fractal.?
All other rules the same.
Thanks,
redduke
Bar 5...
DECR PRV...
I wait and checkout whether it extends the top of Bar 4... It doesn't and instead stalls... I know I am still in the retrace.
The excellent annotated charts recently posted and Mak's last play by play
description of a series of bars
gave me an "AHA" moment with the "RB2RB" transitions that I was having problems
seeing. My first problem is that I was
looking for symmetry ( The left hand side of the R or B had to be equal to the
right side of R or B ) and
my second problem was the thought that the difference between a red or black bar
can be only 1 tick at the moment
the bar was displayed.
My aha moment came when I realized that the symmetry was just an erroneous
conception that I had and the realization
that the R or B transition would be more apparent on a lower time frame and with
some additional Volume analysis tools.
Evidence ( Clues ) of the R or B transition can occur anytime within a 5 minute
bar.
I am beginning to see more clearly the volume gas pedal relationship to the
price range.
I appreciate everyone's effort.
thank you!
@spy
I fell asleep at my office desk last night at home. Got a new office chair which
is nearly as comfy as my bed. Definitely not a good thing...
@rustrader
EXCELLENT QUESTION. If my bar 5 extends beyond the top of bar 4, I plot in a NEW
PT3. Why??? Because I am looking at my PRV and I find -PRV. With -PRV
(ie. DECR PRV), I am not expecting the bar to BO from the RTL simply because
DECR V dictates this is a NON-DOMINANT progression across the channel... I am
also still expecting volume to be strong because we are still in the AM action
zone. The INCR side of the V means that the HERD is flooding in. When we talk
about front running the herd, an expert will front run both the entrance and
exit of the herd and use reverses to bank the whole price progression.
@8833broc
Yes... Drop the geometric symmetry. The symmetry is there but not in the pattern
sense that your thinking/looking for. I will get through the whole 81 bars as
the day is still relatively fresh in mind. At the end, I will post what I mean
by dynamic profit buffering. So now you are beginning to scratch your head and
see what I mean by STRICT PV. My PV analysis is on every single bar. At some of
the later bars, you will find the tough spots that I negotiate myself through...
NB
Please note extremely well some of the subtleties that I do that alot of you may
not think about. For example, for each VOLUME PACE, I have a different
expectation for how far the bar will extend. This is the real eye opener for
PRV. Given my continous rt PRV value, I have an expectation for how large the
PRICE bar will be. The +/- tells me whether I can expect to extend the DOMINANT
direction (+PRV) or retrace back against the DOMINANT direction (-PRV).
I WILL get through the whole day...
Regards,
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
New pt 3 or missed FTT?
Analysis question on attached chart for anyone interested.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
I wonder how much weight you should attach to the carryover channels? It seems like the days channels would have a little more weight than the carryovers but Im guessing. The carryover certainly seems to have stopped the selloff, tho.
Bear,
I think it depends: is the carryover a minor channel or is it a higher fractal.
The higher fractal should always rule.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Carryover Channels
I place a tremendous amount of emphasis on my wider dominant trend channels
(thick lines) which I carryover from the previous day. Unless some news Item
(after hours or pre-market) causes a significant (and substantial) change in
market sentiment, I continue to operate off these channels often for several
days in a row. The smaller (taped or thin channels) may or may not carryover
depending on a number of factors including (but not limited to) gaps.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Mak -
Interesting commentary. While I think I know what you mean when you say "volume
pace", rather than assume - would you please define this?
Thanks
-Au
Mak- thanks for the bar-by-bar. That is very helpful.
One quick Q for you. You stated earlier that you were more strict in your
channel drawing. Could you expand on that a little? I'm assuming you mean that
you don't consider a channel valid unless volume formations agree. accurate?
Thanks.
@AURUM
Think about pace this way. At any carnival/fair, there is usually this game
where the idea is to take a really large hammer and hit a target as hard as you
can in order to get some object to hit the bell at the top of a pole. The harder
you hit it, the farther up the pole that the ball reaches. If you hit it harder
enough, you hit the bell. Hitting the bell isn't important. However, the amount
of impact energy is directly proportional to the height the ball reaches. SUCH
IS PV! P is the height/distance that is travelled. V is the amount of impact
energy that is driving P. When we talk about PACE, it is how much distance is
covered in a particular time. For us, it is always a 5M interval. When you have
large V, PRICE will travel a relatively large distance. A few months back, I did
some quantifying and arrived at the following pace settings based on volume... I
recently updated it and the paces have drifted a tiny bit but that is not
important. The objective is to be in on the right side of the market especially
when it is moving swiftly since the rate at which money is being accumulated is
relatively fast. So you see this really all just a time measurement. We are
comparing money transfer/flow rates.
MAK!
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from makosgu:
@rustrader
EXCELLENT QUESTION. If my bar 5 extends beyond the top of bar 4, I plot in a NEW PT3. Why??? Because I am looking at my PRV and I find -PRV. With -PRV (ie. DECR PRV), I am not expecting the bar to BO from the RTL simply because DECR V dictates this is a NON-DOMINANT progression across the channel... I am also still expecting volume to be strong because we are still in the AM action zone. The INCR side of the V means that the HERD is flooding in. When we talk about front running the herd, an expert will front run both the entrance and exit of the herd and use reverses to bank the whole price progression.
Quote from C99:
Mak- thanks for the bar-by-bar. That is very helpful.
One quick Q for you. You stated earlier that you were more strict in your channel drawing. Could you expand on that a little? I'm assuming you mean that you don't consider a channel valid unless volume formations agree. accurate? Thanks.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from rustrader:
Mak, thanks for answer, but I do not understand you completely. Everething is clear about pt3. Does it mean that you will hold SHORT at Bar 5 until PRV will not increase? So there is no exit criteria like "exit if price at Bar 5 exeeds high of Bar 4 by X ticks" there is "exit (or reverse?) if Bar 5 PRV will increase"?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
I need to call it quits early today, but wanted to post my chart anyway. It
was a MAJOR day. Perhaps not a religious experience, but at least quite magical.
My PV schitoma seems to have vanished.
On the attached chart is an arrow. It was a major magical moment. While I
pondered my missed FTT, I noticed a very subtle R2R and then the formation (to
me a pennant) developed. I thought to myself, "if I were trading, this green bar
on light volume would probably be my best opportunity to reverse, and then I'd
be looking for a BO downward on increasing volume"
THat's exactly what happened. Also, I am starting to consistantly "read" the PV
relationship that seemed so non-existant previously.
Sorry for my child like enthusiasm, I love it when a plan comes together!
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Is there a way to save a post in Word with the pic intact? I tried to copy
and paste but the picture is gone. I guess I can save them separately and put
them back together but I was wondering if there is an easy way to do it.
Mak I find your posts most instructive. Looking forward to more.
ym 2 min
Misidentified FTT at 10:58, otherwise good day so far
es 5 min
Quote from makosgu:
Check my bar by bar posts. This is what I mean by strict. It is a PV play by play. The market QBs and I play my part. Offensive play/Defensive Play. Break on 3....
MAK
It is apparent to me that people are improving and that what is going on is
getting more routine and has more depth.
This is what happens.
There is no longer a flurry of bits and pieces. Instead, the relaltionships and
significances are showing up.
This is showing that the personal resourse that is being developed is moving to
a collage of resourse information rather than micro rules for every little
pertibation.
Coaches build teams. Ultimately, you are going to be both.
The coach is on the sidelines 24/7. You go and play during RMH using all the
coaching that has become part of you. When you come off the field you debrief
with your coach to be able to play better on another day.
The written resourses you collect and put together is the playbook for all
situations.
As a player, you use knowledge, skills and experience all of which is carried on
the playing field.
In ET, the coaching and practices are going on. You are working out on RMH
either as a practice session or as a regulation game.
I am emphasizing an analogy because it clicks and makes every bar important. The
composite of all the pertinent illustrations that you take and hilite to make
your own is also an analogy of what is going on within.
Quote from dkm:
es 5 min
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from Bearbelly:
Is there a way to save a post in Word with the pic intact? I tried to copy and paste but the picture is gone. I guess I can save them separately and put them back together but I was wondering if there is an easy way to do it.
Mak I find your posts most instructive. Looking forward to more.
Quote from nkhoi:
right click on picture then select copy, go to word doc right click and paste.
I love this place.
Quote from dkm:
es 5 min
Volume Volatility Chart
Quote from makosgu: SNIP. . .
A few months back, I did some quantifying and arrived at the following pace settings based on volume... I recently updated it and the paces have drifted a tiny bit but that is not important.
MAK! [/B]
Re: Volume Volatility Chart
Quote from Ezzy:
Mak, could you explain a bit about the chart? The top row is points, and volume divisions/ranges are down the left side. But I am having trouble on all the numbers in the middle. How are they read or calculated?
The basic relationship of the bar length (volatility) to volume is an easy concept, more volume = larger range. Also there are times when it seems to be out of whack, where you have a narrow range bar and high volume or a high range bar and low volume. These areas can be seen as flaws and are usually turning points or points of change, much like the channel flaws.
I can see that the chart quantifies the relationship, but am having trouble understanding it because the chart "seems" to represent a bell curve where I'd expect the a linear relationship. What am I missing?
Thanks, - EZ
Re: Volume Volatility Chart
Quote from Ezzy:
.... Also there are times when it seems to be out of whack, where you have a narrow range bar and high volume or a high range bar and low volume. These areas can be seen as flaws and are usually turning points or points of change, much like the channel flaws.
I can see that the chart quantifies the relationship, but am having trouble understanding it because the chart "seems" to represent a bell curve where I'd expect the a linear relationship.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
The discussion is deepening and that gives us more and more strength as
traders.
We can now see that the P and V are working together in an incredible
cooperation and corrolation.
We see the charts are showing the channels and traverses AND we can see as we
ride the bar that we have the best seat in the house.
Trends (channels) progress.
This is the relative part.
Each bar is as expected in the table.
AND IN COMPARISON WITH THE PRIOR BAR as the progression continues.
The two facets are the "continuation" and the "change".
The thread is dealing with the ES "FTT" theme. And now we are looking at the way
in which the FTT is surrounded by events like 1, 2, and 3, and on the other side
BO and FBO.
The volume's nature comes into play since it is the "drive" of the prices plays.
The relative nature of the bars is what hepls you "see" the transitions from
"continuation" and into "change". This is where our effectiveness and efficiency
emerges from "playing" more skillfully.
Every bar you handle and log properly, builds your ability to handle the next
bar. All under the volume level context.
Look at it this way for a moment.
Step onto the chart of volatility vs volume level. It is a matrix.
Now get the fact that you are going to be in a given cell at a given time.
You will see the the high numbers in the cell tell you how common or regularly
you spend time there.
If you printed 10 0f these charts and used one each for the am, midday and pm,
you would have a very revealing experience.
The way to use the chart is to make a road map on the chart of the bars. Lable
each cell with the bar number and then draw a link to the next bar. Keep
repeating.
You will find that the action is zoned (by activity zones) as the parts of the
day proceeds.
"Seeing the market" is a goal here.
You annotate P and V and corrolate the annotations. On MAK's chart you "see" how
NOW is operating as it moves on the chart.
Once you see that there is NO jumping all over the place, you get personally
"calibrated" on yet another level of understanding.
You can just peruse the chart looking across rows and up and down columns. You
see the "beauty" of the market. It does not have anomolies. It has elegance and
beauty and it is huge and available.
When you see this chart you see how futile it is to search for anomolies to make
money.
We search for the context and the play that is being made and how to extract. We
compare to the prior bar to get a vector, a vector that is in a context.
We are "seeing" (the market gives us the data) going (our play) from one place
to another and defining the "going", "arriving" and then "going" again.
Depth of understanding is becoming available useful and strength (competance)
building.
es 5 min
ym 2min
Early part of the day I felt I was reading pretty well, but thoroughly confused by volume from about 2pm on...
Today's ES Chart
I have highlighted certain areas of the chart making it easier to compare
Price and Volume at those specific times. Please note those areas well and
understand the changes taking place.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from dkm:
es 5 min
my take on today
Quote from thenewguy:
dkm, is there a reason why you don't have a channel going from your ftt around 10:15 (10:15,12:15 and 2:20ish are 1,2,3) downward? I have almost exactly the same chart with the addition of that channel which gives me another FTT at 2:30ish.
Thanks,
TNG
Quote from dkm:
Could you post your chart please?
Quote from thenewguy:
sure...
TNG
It is a job to keep up with all the channels.
As time passes the value of each line goes up.
Imagine the youngest age of a person who could draw the lines and have them
totally working on a computer in the back of a classroom.
It's like having your son playing with the neighbor at age 5 in Switzerland and
having him have trouble explaining in English how he and his buddies herd the
dairy cows in for pm milking. He is doing it in "switzedutch".
We are learning to write the language of the markets here and it is a continuing
case of iterative refinement bar by bar. Turn your curiousity loose.
Quote from thenewguy:
sure...
TNG
Quote from dkm:
That seems reasonable. I just didn't spot it at the time
Quote from makosgu:
...snip...
Bar 7...
This bar actually started with INCR PRV and then migrated to DECR PRV...
From it's open, I am looking to see whether or not it will extend the LTL. From the open, it doesn't extend the lo of bar 6. I am on alert because the pace is extreme which means the bar is likely to have large volatility. I watch and having not acted on the possible bar 6 FTT, my fall back is a XO of the RTL. As soon as it XOs, I annotate that S1 is over and I plug in my pt1 for S2. Despite being caught off gaurd by the DECR PRV, I am still on the RIGHT SIDE by MONITORING the XO of my RTL... The top of bar 7 is my current pt2 and I am looking to see whether bar 8 will extend it or retrace it to give me pt 3... I want to be comfortable that L2 is a LONG and not a LATERAL/PENNAT so I am on alert...
continued...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from makosgu:
.. At this point, I wasn't sure if I was in a lateral or a short. Pt3 will tell all. I am also wondering why volume has subsided, It's only 11.
...
Quote from RedDuke:
Hi Spyder,
Great thread and monumental effort. Huge thanks to you and others.
It has been mentioned many times on this thread the importance of price and volume. The question that I have is why not use volume bars which give the purest combination and price action and volume instead of fixed time fractal.? All other rules the same.
Thanks,
redduke
Quote from dcraig:
Yes, I too would like to know the answer to this one. I don't know about the "pure" bit but my wholly subjective impression is that constant volume bars tend to be better for drawing trend channels than constant time bars.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
MAK and Aurum,
Thanks for the explainations, I was reading the volume/volatility chart wrong
and see it clearly now. It is as I expected, for some reason the layout didn't
click at first. The "out of whack" data wasn't on your chart - meaning the chart
data isn't out of whack. The anomaly referred to shows up at a couple of the
"ends" in the chart, but that's a topic for another time.
Thanks again - EZ
MAK,
your bar-by-bar comments are very helpful. Can you in addition explain where do
you execute trades? I ask you that because bar-by-bar monitoring can imply
overtrading for novice.
Quote from makosgu:
...problem with Volume bars is unfortunately, we need to fix our volume measurements to a consistent time interval. Additionally, we do volume projections for the same interval continually. The equivalent for a volume bar would be a projection of when you expect the volume bar to be full ...
The amazing thing about trading is the # of ways to “skin the cat”. I have been comparing FTT entries to the system that I use and they match a lot. I call them differently use volume bars and yet they match.
The point being made is simply this - while using volume bars may have it's
merits - it is not part of the current curriculum.
I suspect it would be best to wait for now on opening this can of worms.
Quote from RedDuke:
The amazing thing about trading is the # of ways to “skin the cat”. I have been comparing FTT entries to the system that I use and they match a lot. I call them differently use volume bars and yet they match.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Yep. Lower highs and higher lows have been around for awhile.
Who said anything about simple? Just pointing out that an ftt is a lower high or a higher low so it will often concur with many other types of "setups".
Quote from Bearbelly:
Who said anything about simple? Just pointing out that an ftt is a lower high or a higher low so it will often concur with many other types of "setups".
not necessarily
Quote from Bearbelly:
Who said anything about simple? Just pointing out that an ftt is a lower high or a higher low so it will often concur with many other types of "setups".
@redduke...
There is certainly many ways to skin the cat. Trading is all about finding a way
of tapping the flow so to speak. FTTs are very special and I know how to
interpret them in a variety of frameworks including one that relies on volume
range bars. They are great for seeing big picture and I think they are a great
start for anyone getting into trading. You might want to check out a fellow who
goes by the handle of ProfLogic. He is another one of those people who many
posters tend to flame. His methodology is strictly from the context of knowing
when you have high tide and when you have low tide. Between these points, he
trades off a special type of FTT. He is not concerned with nailing turns but he
is very consistent with annotating every critical point and then taking out a
piece of the range between high tide and low tide. If he ever starts a similar
thread here much like spyder's, you will also see me run the same type of in
depth detailing there as well and in accordance to his methodology. The returns
his students get there are also unbelievable. I can't even mention the audited
figures they have there...
@rustrader
Where I did my trade executions would cause too many questions. I will get the
question of what did I see intrabar that made me take action as I am usually
timing at the beginnings of volume surges and recessions. Additionally, the
flamers would surely challenge every single trade execution which I have
practically zero tolerance for. We are not here to build up my mindset. In other
words, we are not here to trade like me, but rather getting in gear to "see"
every play BAR BY BAR. Already you see that I am sweeping several times per bar.
This is how we will be able to incorporate bi9foot's accelaration histograms.
When we get through all 81 bars, I will then throw up my debrief and show
several kicks in the head of where I was not on top of the play action but was
still on the right side of the action. We are running through the bar by bar
because we are seeing the strict PV annotations. This how you can be certain
about how in tune I am to the relationship...
@all
I would have put up the next dozen or so bar walk thru but my internet at my
home office went haywire (IP conflict).
regards,
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Two opposing channels locked price in place for 15 min's, too cool.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from makosgu:
@redduke...
There is certainly many ways to skin the cat. Trading is all about finding a way of tapping the flow so to speak.....
MAK,
ok I appreciate your comments. I do not take an interest in how much points did
you make yesterday I only try to understand how much trades did you execute -
10, 20, 40? It is very hard for novice do not overtrade when sweeping 5min
fractal on intrabar basis. So if you find this question inadmissible - disregard
my post.
Quote from rustrader:
MAK,
ok I appreciate your comments. I do not take an interest in how much points did you make yesterday I only try to understand how much trades did you execute - 10, 20, 40? It is very hard for novice do not overtrade when sweeping 5min fractal on intrabar basis. So if you find this question inadmissible - disregard my post.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Rus, remember that sweeping does not equate to trading. For a beginner, per this program, we as beginners ONLY enter on FTT's. That eliminates over trading easily.
EDIT: And, for the moment, we're not trading at all, just observing.
Quote from rustrader:
of course I do not trade FTTs by now just learn and observe. My question is really about trading mistakes. If you can determine FTTs with 100% or even 75% accuracy you are top-expert. Suppose you are mistaken and confuse FTT with hitch for example. What would you do? Exit? Reverse to new move? Trading mistakes causes either overtrading or big losses and this is the biggest problem for me.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from dkm:
Just for clarification, an FTT can be a higher high or a lower low without price reaching the left hand side of the channel. Examples attached.
Quote from rustrader:
of course I do not trade FTTs by now just learn and observe. My question is really about trading mistakes. If you can determine FTTs with 100% or even 75% accuracy you are top-expert. Suppose you are mistaken and confuse FTT with hitch for example. What would you do? Exit? Reverse to new move? Trading mistakes causes either overtrading or big losses and this is the biggest problem for me.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Mistaken FTT
Quote from rustrader:
Suppose you are mistaken and confuse FTT with hitch for example. What would you do? Exit? Reverse to new move? Trading mistakes causes either overtrading or big losses and this is the biggest problem for me.
__________________
Quote from dcraig:
Yes, I too would like to know the answer to this one. I don't know about the "pure" bit but my wholly subjective impression is that constant volume bars tend to be better for drawing trend channels than constant time bars.
Quote from jack hershey:
[QUOTE]Quote from jack hershey:
Anyone is free to use more or less of this as they wish. QUOTE]
It is mindboggling how much there is on the table. PRV has taken me to a new
level by itself. Maks tool is the neatest thing Ive come across in awhile. Every
day I become more impressed with volume as an indicator. Most mindboggling of
all. Its all FREE!!!!
Here's my chart for today. Morning started out great, but in the afternoon my
annotating got sloppy and I'm got a little lost.
Thanks,
TNG
Today's ES Chart
Again, note how the gaussians develop at and around an FTT.
__________________
my es chart for today
and ym
Here's mine. I got called out of my office around 2:45 est, so nothing after
that time. I was a little confused at the end of the day as well.
I'm becoming more impressed w/ volume each day as well. I can clearly see Mak's
gas pedal analogy. I'm also starting to move through the day with a much
stronger feeling of what I should be looking for next. And to my surprise, quite
often I get exactly what I was looking for. And I know if I don't, that
something is amiss.
Some q's-
How "hard" are channel lines? I'm talking here of the intraday channels of one
to a few hrs duration. Is a traverse that misses the LTL by one tick an FTT?
What can I look for with the current tool set to know I have an FTT and not a
flaw before I see the R2R or B2B confirmation?
And along the same lines, should we treat an FTT as a flaw until confirmed, or
should an FTT be treated as an FTT until lack of confirmation? If that makes
sense?
And Mak- I know I said this already, but the bar by bar is really helping out. I
was making what I was looking for more difficult than it needed to be.
Re: Mistaken FTT
Quote from Spydertrader:
The system, thus far, has but three rules.
FTT to FTT (reverse)
FTT to FBO (exit)
FTT to BO (hold)
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Mistaken FTT
Quote from C99:
How "hard" are channel lines? I'm talking here of the intraday channels of one to a few hrs duration. Is a traverse that misses the LTL by one tick an FTT?
Quote from C99:
What can I look for with the current tool set to know I have an FTT and not a flaw before I see the R2R or B2B confirmation?
Quote from C99:
And along the same lines, should we treat an FTT as a flaw until confirmed, or should an FTT be treated as an FTT until lack of confirmation? If that makes sense?
Quote from C99:
I was making what I was looking for more difficult than it needed to be.
Quote from dkm:
Spyder,
Do you recommend that a beginner consider a bounce off the left trend line as an FBO and therefore a reason to exit? (i.e. the end of a dominant traverse)
__________________
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Again, note how the gaussians develop at and around an FTT.
Quote from dkm:
my es chart for today
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from dkm:
If my understanding is correct, an FTT usually exhibits peaking volume i.e. the volume of the FTT bar is usually greater than that of the bars on either side of the FTT. Within the constraints of the present tool set (i.e. ES Chart: Price, Volume, Channels and the FTT) am I right to presume that we identify a potential FTT by monitoring the prv of the following 5 min ES bar and anticipating lower volume than on the FTT bar?
__________________
Here's my chart.
I've been lurking and studying so far and not participating because of time
issues. Just wanted to say it's a great journal and I'll participate whenever I
can.
Thanks spider.
regards,
Ivo
I look forward to people's write ups at the end of the day. Today, thenewguy
and C99 mentioned some confusion in the afternoon - I also have experienced that
myself the past couple aft's. Could it be the amount of focus this method
requires - much more than I am used to, and that is a good thing! Also, the
price action has been similar these past two aft's, with the price oscillating
about the rtl it seems.This gets me to question where my channel should be
sometimes. But all in due time - I take solace in being a newbie - lol! Thanik
goodness for Spyder's comparison charts!
Was also interesting today to see how the 20 sma supported price this aft - one
could almost have used it as a channel line - heheh.
Have a question about the 'hitch' - was that term coined from Granpa Mccoy
(Walter Brennan), as he had "a hitch in his get-a- long". Or maybe Chester on
Gunsmoke - hahah. But it fits how price kinda limps for a bar before resuming
its traverse.
Also agree w/ Bearbelly - this volume stuff is a real eye opener. The vistas of
the horizon are widening ...
Today I noticed several ftt's occuring in stall areas occuring within a
multiple trend area of the charts. In case my words are not clear I attached the
chart and circled the area. Within the circle the second ftt had convincing
volume. The intersection of multiple intraday trends happens almost everyday and
sometimes which trend will win is not alway apparent by the volume.
Also there were multiple ftt after 1230pm if the RED 123 trendline
from the morning was the corect trendline to use.
Given the goals for this month is my analysis accurate or am I not using all the
data that the chart is providing.
BTW: on my chart pay attention to the color of my numbers but ignore the color
of my trendline (they are all blue )
thank you!
Here's mine for the day, sorry about the lateness, had some "technical" glitches.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
You have described an excellent way to confirm an FTT as the subsequent bars form. However, as you find yourself in the current bar and notice volume begin to slow in terms of pace, and realize the bar cannot get to the last peak volume bar, one should consider at this point an FTT is forming. In other words, you are anticipating the FTT formation based on PRV, context of current bars when compared to previous peak bars and current gausian formation.
- Spydertrader
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Dang - guess I get the booby prize for the day. I missed THE DOMINANT CHANNEL
of the session. No wonder the afternoon was confusing. Will now go stand in the
corner for an hour and say my 1-2-3's
36 D's would suffice ...
Quote from 8833broc:
Today I noticed several ftt's occuring in stall areas occuring within a multiple trend area of the charts. In case my words are not clear I attached the chart and circled the area. Within the circle the second ftt had convincing volume. The intersection of multiple intraday trends happens almost everyday and sometimes which trend will win is not alway apparent by the volume.
...
There were several comments today about the PM being difficult to read/chart, and I agree, it was for me too. When that is the case I like to step up to a higher fractal and get a bird's eye view of what is happening. This 30min shows we were testing resistance of the left channel line and the top of our 4-day range this afternoon, a situation that generally makes for messy annotations on the 5min chart.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from bundlemaker:
Do I have this right?
__________________
Quote from txuk:
... This 30min shows we were testing resistance of the left channel line and the top of our 4-day range this afternoon, a situation that generally makes for messy annotations on the 5min chart.
Re: Re: Re: Mistaken FTT
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes. A Bounce is an FBO, and Beginners Exit off an FBO. Even if price then quickly reverses and rockets skyward for 12 points, don't fret. The whole point of the exercise is to follow the rules. Later, we will determine when it is appropriate to exit, reverse or hold at an FBO, but for now, we always exit.
- Spydertrader [/B]
Re: Re: Re: Re: Mistaken FTT
Quote from rustrader:
it means that beginners should trade only first dominant traverse of the channel and ignore others, right?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Mistaken FTT
Quote from Spydertrader:
No. It means Beginners look for FTT's, and then, Beginners follow the Rules Outlines previously.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Mistaken FTT
Quote from rustrader:
ok. I have read and re-read this thread many times and really confused especially after your answer. I think I am too stupid to understand you but nevertheless thanks.
__________________
Quote from EstebanUno:
..
I can't keep that R2B, B2B, and the other permutations straight in my mind.
So that is 3 consecutive ftts marked by different PV action!
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Mistaken FTT
Quote from Spydertrader:
Maybe this will help. An FBO in one channel (at the same point in time) could also be an FTT in another (and opposite) channel. Follow the FTT's.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Mistaken FTT
Quote from rustrader:
it is true and clear but my Q was about another thing. Suppose we get FTT (call it FTT_1) and then BO. Between the next FTT (call it FTT_2) there can be numerous traverses, dominant and non-dominant. What should beginner do when he see non-dominant traverse? Exit or hold?
__________________
Rustrader - you perhaps are trying to read too much into this aspect of the
methods. Snipped from Spyder's post on pg. 1 :
Once you locate an FTT and begin to follow price from that location, look for
three possible ‘End Effects’ and take appropriate action.
1. Another FTT (Reverse)
2. An FBO (Exit)
3. A BO (Hold)
So you've spotted your FTT, and have entered the trade (hypothetically at this
juncture) opposite this previous dominant traverse which has terminated at the
FTT. Our best case scenario would then be to see price retreat back to the right
trend line of this dominant channel and exit the trade, if price seems to stall.
A price pause here would lead us to believe we are seeing a FBO, and per the
rules, would dictate the exit.
Naturally, if price just barrels through the rtl, we would stay in the trade
(hold) until we suspected a new FTT within our currently annotated channel,
which hopefully has been provided with a new 1-2-3 formation. Then as stated,
once we suspect a FTT appearing in this channel, we would exit w/ nice profits.
Third possibility - we have entered off the original FTT and drawn our new
'tape' projections. Subsequently, price then fails to reach the left side of
this tape, and reverses against our position - if it continues against us, we
can now believe we have witnessed a FTT within this tape, and we again exit, per
the rules.
Try spotting apparent FTT locations on your previously annotated charts (or use
Spyder's posted daily summary charts), and consider what each of these three
scenarios will look like. The next trade will once again begin with a new FTT
(as a beginner, it might help to focus on the current DOMINANT channel, and just
look for FTT's within it; further, always be on the lookout for the maximum
volume spikes, as they often precipitate the FTT)
Sure hope this doesn't just confuse you more. I simply commiserate with the
feelings of bewilderment, and as I find myself in basically the same situation,
thought I could possibly help out.
Best of luck ...
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Mistaken FTT
Quote from Spydertrader:
"What do we do after we get a BO?" (meaning how long do we hold), then my answer is this. After a BO, a trader holds until the next FTT where we begin the process again.
- Spydertrader [/B]
B2R and B2B
[QUOTE]Quote from nkhoi:
there is no permutation, if channel slant up the sequence is B2R, B2R..until
R2R, if channel slant down the sequence is R2B, R2B..until B2B, channel and
sequence verify each other. [/QUOTE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I am having difficulty with B2R and R2R concept too, I would really appreciate
some charts posted on this topic.
Anyone know why the market is on steroids today?
I am having difficulty with B2R and R2R concept, here is my chart please feel free to make comments/suggestions. My charting software is Ensign.
Quote from nkhoi:
there is no permutation, if channel slant up the sequence is B2R, B2R..until R2R, if channel slant down the sequence is R2B, R2B..until B2B, channel and sequence verify each other.
Quote from EstebanUno:
Thanks, that helps. I think I've got it now.
So in your example B2R, B2R..until R2R. R2R is the beginning of the down slant channel.
If bold denotes increasing volume (the left side of the Gaussian) then the sequence of your 1st example would look like this: B2R , B2R, R2R, R2B.
Is that correct?
For a while I didn't understand the concept until I realized PV and also had to relax a bit as far as observing is concerned. So with channels, you see that the channel is the geometric context for where price is operating. The Volume is the gas pedal so to speak of price operating within the container. In a channel you will see price bounce from one side to the other until it stops. When you look at volume you will see that in one particular direction of the bounce from one side of the channel to the opposite side, each consecutive volume bar will be more or less larger than the previous bar. On the bounce back, the volume bars will have a general decreasing progression. You will have to look somewhat loosely because as you will notice, the migration from one side to the other is riddled with stalled/inside bars. They are easy to pick off because you will see that the volume does not follow the progression and additionally the price bar will not extend beyond either side of the previous price bar.
The framework of the gaussians is that every channel has the dominant where the progression of sequentially increasing volume bars denote the dominant direction of the channel. The sequentially decreasing volume bars are the retrace. Thus a R2B means INCREASING RED VOLUME bars followed by DECREASING BLACK VOLUME BARS. A B2R is INCREASING BLACK VOLUME bars followed by DECREASING RED VOLUME bars. A LONG channel is a repeating sequential series of B2Rs whereas a SHORT channel is a repeating sequential series of R2Bs. The transition between a SHORT and LONG channel is immediately picked off by B2B where you have DECREASING BLACK VOLUME bars followed by INCREASING BLACK VOLUME bars or an R2R where you have DECREASING RED VOLUME bars followed by INCREASING RED VOLUME bars...
"AHA"
Thus a R2B means INCREASING RED VOLUME bars followed by DECREASING BLACK
VOLUME BARS. A B2R is INCREASING BLACK VOLUME bars followed by DECREASING RED
VOLUME bars. A LONG channel is a repeating sequential series of B2Rs whereas a
SHORT channel is a repeating sequential series of R2Bs. The transition between a
SHORT and LONG channel is immediately picked off by B2B where you have
DECREASING BLACK VOLUME bars followed by INCREASING BLACK VOLUME bars or an R2R
where you have DECREASING RED VOLUME bars followed by INCREASING RED VOLUME
bars...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think I understand it now.
Re: "AHA"
Quote from callmate:
Thus a R2B means INCREASING RED VOLUME bars followed by DECREASING BLACK VOLUME BARS. A B2R is INCREASING BLACK VOLUME bars followed by DECREASING RED VOLUME bars. A LONG channel is a repeating sequential series of B2Rs whereas a SHORT channel is a repeating sequential series of R2Bs. The transition between a SHORT and LONG channel is immediately picked off by B2B where you have DECREASING BLACK VOLUME bars followed by INCREASING BLACK VOLUME bars or an R2R where you have DECREASING RED VOLUME bars followed by INCREASING RED VOLUME bars...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think I understand it now.
And we come full circle to this
link from the first page.
Gaussian Formations.
In an effort to avoid any confusion (and develop a uniform system for
discussion purposes) when referring to Gaussians, we should add additional
modifiers to our shorthand.
For example,
V - B2R
/\ - B2R
By using the above shorthand, one instantly sees decreasing Black Volume
followed by increasing Red Volume in a V-B2R.
In addition, /\-B2R signifies increasing Black Volume followed by Decreasing Red
Volume.
From now on, I plan to use the above shorthand to insure improved transference.
Let me know if anybody finds this slightly altered Gaussian Shorthand
confusing.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Not Enough
Quote from Aurum:
And we come full circle to this link from the first page.
Re: Gaussian Formations.
Let me know if anybody finds this slightly altered Gaussian Shorthand
confusing.
- Spydertrader [/B][/QUOTE]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Excellent, thanks.
Re: Not Enough
Quote from callmate:
______________________________________________
Aurum
I understand what you are saying. The first page without the discussion that followed didn't mean much.
I have seen comments sheet like these all over ET. Having made a conscious decision to learn the Hershey way the penny is beginning to drop. You will just have to show tolerance towards the "slow learners."
Guys, please explain one thing. This Q is adressed first of all to MAK and
Spyder.
I trade index futures and use ProfLogic's method which is well known by you.
ProfLogic's stuff is very similar to what you do but a lot slower and requires
less activity. But there is one big difference. In ProfLogic's terminology PPF
correspond FTT. But PPF is objective and I can say "irreversible". I mean that
if we get PPF it is PPF no questions. Another thing is FTT. We can
confuse FTT and flaw (hitch, dip, stall, HVS). So my Q is: what is ultimate and
objective confirmation of FTT? I know that from point of view of practical
trading it is incorrect to wait for FTT's confirmation but I speak now not about
timely actions but about complete understanding what is FTT and what is not.
PS Please sorry for not well English, I tried...
Quote from rustrader:
Guys, please explain one thing. This Q is adressed first of all to MAK and Spyder.
I trade index futures and use ProfLogic's method which is well known by you. ProfLogic's stuff is very similar to what you do but a lot slower and requires less activity. But there is one big difference. In ProfLogic's terminology PPF correspond FTT. But PPF is objective and I can say "irreversible". I mean that if we get PPF it is PPF no questions. Another thing is FTT. We can confuse FTT and flaw (hitch, dip, stall, HVS). So my Q is: what is ultimate and objective confirmation of FTT? I know that from point of view of practical trading it is incorrect to wait for FTT's confirmation but I speak now not about timely actions but about complete understanding what is FTT and what is not.
PS Please sorry for not well English, I tried...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Leaving early today- off to do some skiing in Breckenridge for the long
weekend. Be back trading next Wed.
Here's today so far. For the people with Q's about R2R etc, there were a few
clear examples today that I marked on the chart. I wish everyday was as easy for
me to read as today.
Quote from EstebanUno:
...
Is that correct? [/B]
yes,
it is correct, here is what it would look like in a perfect world, so your
imagination is required to see a gaussian sometimes
Quote from makosgu:
[If I have increasing volume that is going against the previous dominant, (ie. the increasing side of a R\/B or B\/R) then the extreme of the previous PV Gaussian cycle was my FTT.
Curious questions from an outsider looking in:
1) How many transactions on average do you guys do a session?
2) All the lines you guys project are just mental and the process internalized
in real-time, correct?
Thanks.
__________________
do the hansa
trading blog
Quote from illiquid:
Curious questions from an outsider looking in:
1) How many transactions on average do you guys do a session?
2) All the lines you guys project are just mental and the process internalized in real-time, correct?
Thanks.
Questions
Quote from illiquid:
1) How many transactions on average do you guys do a session?
Quote from illiquid:
2) All the lines you guys project are just mental and the process internalized in real-time, correct?
__________________
MAK,
thank you very much, your answer encourage me to think a lot. Explore charts,
compare methods, etc...
Ok thanks for the answer.
__________________
do the hansa
trading blog
notes for today
Here are my notes for today, produced from monitoring just the 5 min ES
chart. Hopefully this might show up some flaws in my thinking (no pun intended)
09:44 dominant long, magenta tape
09:51 turn?
09:53 low prv, range contraction
09:56 vol accel, new high
10:00 FTT?
10:03 red bar, still looks like FTT
10:09 high +prv HVS?, no R2R
10:11 draw RTL for black channel, new pt 3
10:17 low prv, FTT?
10:21 1st break of low
10:36 lateral, adjust RTL again
10:39 forming pt 3? no R2R again
10:40 yes, new pt 3 (draw in green channel)
10:47 +prv but not as high as last Gaussian
10:56 FTT? –prv , approaching RTL, looking for BO
10:58 fbo?
11:01 yes, +prv, no R2R again
11:05 long trend continues
11:11 lower prv, FTT?
11:14 FTT still poss, new high as bar closes
11:16 hi prv, long continuation, no R2R again
11:21 FTT? Red prv, anticipating RTL BO
11:24 looking good for BO out of green channel
11:26 low prv – looking for r2r to confirm FTT
11:34 short traverse pauses at 1433, inc prv black
11:37 lateral
11:39 long thrust but not hi prv, forming yet another new pt3 for shallower
wider channel?
11:41 lower prv, looks lateral, no sign of r2r
11:47 lower prv, lateral forming L2R traverse? If so, should have new pt 3 soon
and r2r
11:52 vol approaching du
11:54 ftp
11:56 ftp bo long, increasing prv. Does this negate FTT?
12:03 looks like fbo. No sign of r2r. Going into lunchtime
12:16 unexpected strong upthrust, high prv, channel context?? Wider lateral?
Olive channel
12:24 FBO
13:11 BO of Olive channel r2r…..real or fake?
13:22 looks real r2r increasing prv
13:24 dominant short – looking for pt 2
13:32 pt 2 formed? Start of LTR traverse, R2B Gaussian
13:41 looking for pt 3 and new R2B
13:52 pt 3 formed – draw violet short channel
13:58 RTL traverse, on the lookout for next FTT
14:06 at LTL, hi prv – if we don’t get a BO then this is where I should exit the
short
14:08 decreasing prv – end of traverse? Still at LTL
14:11 prv increasing, possible BO, volatility expansion of channel, HOLD
14:16 looking like FBO so this would be exit – start of L2R traverse
14:21 increasing prv short – disrupting traverse – flaw
14:24 prv of this bar has fallen – LTR traverse resuming
14:26 increasing prv long, pushing to RTL – poss B2B?
14:32 arrive at RTL – increasing prv long, BO here?
14:34 – price arrives at 1433 again – previous S and R, (Olive channel), could
be pt 2 of new long channel? If vol decreases on retrace then maybe so
(anticipating B2R). If red vol increases then we have another RTL short traverse
14:37 prv very low, bar contraction
14:46 lateral bo of channel, vol du
14:49 long traverse continues, BO confirmed, looking for pt 2 on new long
channel
14:56 bar colour change, pt 2? Peaking prv, looking for decreasing red vol. Vol
at close of bar is less than prev bar – pt 2 in? Looking for a pt 3 around 1431
15:03 lateral so far,
15:12 increasing prv long – low of this bar pt 3 of narrow long channel? Or just
fbo of lateral?
15:17 no follow through, prv very low. Still anticipating price to fall for new
pt 3
15:21 heavy short prv, R2R – new short channel? 15:10 bar was probably an FTT.
My anticipated pt 3 goes out the window
15:26 Looking for pt2 of new short channel
15:29 strong bounce, pt 2 in? looking for decreasing vol on LTR traverse.
15:48 pt 3? Draw red channel. Looking for RTL short traverse.
PRV seems to be fooling me. At critical points, what was a green (red) bar
shifts to red (green) and what you thought was confirming something did the
opposite. When you have this happen several times intra-bar on the same bar I’m
at a loss as to proper course of action. Also, does a high volume inside bar
mean anything?
When PRV is moderately increasing, say you’re half way through the bar, and
price is only a tick or so away from the previous bar’s close, is there anything
you can do with PRV? Or does one wait until the close of the bar in that
instance? Or is this perhaps where the medium and fine course tools might come
into play?
For example here is what happens to me: 30 seconds into the bar it looks like a
FTT, at 2 ½ minutes it looks like a flaw, the next bar it looks like an FTT,
next bar’s volume suggests it really wasn’t an FTT, the following bar’s initial
PRV negates that idea, etc.
I am definitely beginning to see the Gaussians within 4 or 5 bars after they
form and sometimes even while it’s forming (which is pretty neat) and use it in
the decision process.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Nice effort DKM. My goal for next week is to get a similiar real time log
going.
One Q on your chart, bar 57 which is the same one I asked Mak about you have
labeled as a FBO. I think BO and FBO can only occur on the RTL. So is your bar
mislabelled or am I wrong in my understanding of that?
Here is mine for today....
Thanks,
TNG
Today's ES Chart
Note Highlighted Areas on Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from C99:
Nice effort DKM. My goal for next week is to get a similiar real time log going.
One Q on your chart, bar 57 which is the same one I asked Mak about you have labeled as a FBO. I think BO and FBO can only occur on the RTL. So is your bar mislabelled or am I wrong in my understanding of that?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes. A Bounce is an FBO, and Beginners Exit off an FBO.
- Spydertrader
Bundlemaker,
Quote from bundlemaker:
PRV seems to be fooling me. At critical points, what was a green (red) bar shifts to red (green) and what you thought was confirming something did the opposite. When you have this happen several times intra-bar on the same bar I’m at a loss as to proper course of action. Also, does a high volume inside bar mean anything?
When PRV is moderately increasing, say you’re half way through the bar, and price is only a tick or so away from the previous bar’s close, is there anything you can do with PRV? Or does one wait until the close of the bar in that instance? Or is this perhaps where the medium and fine course tools might come into play?
FBO and BO
Quote from dkm:
So my understanding now is that if price reaches the left trend line and does not break through it i.e. it begins a left to right retracement, then it should been considered as an FBO and an exit is in order. After thinking about this, it is quite logical. A break through the left trend line will mean (a) the channel is getting wider and (b) price is moving in the desired direction, giving the rule HOLD when seeing a BO. If it fails to BO i.e. bounces, then exit. On bar 57 we did get a BO and the channel widened, but then price retraced back into the channel rendering it an FBO.
__________________
Re: notes for today
Quote from dkm:
Here are my notes for today, produced from monitoring just the 5 min ES chart. Hopefully this might show up some flaws in my thinking (no pun intended)
...
SpyderTrader
I modified your chart slightly to show another possible channel and FTT. Not
sure if horizontal channels are within the guidelines but at the time felt that
this channel was the best fit for the price movement. Are Horizontal channels (
Support and Resistant )
allowed?
Spooz Trader
I noticed the same thing a few posts ago. This made me realize the problem with
a discrete time period volume snapshot as opposed to a realtime continuous
volume monitoring
tool. I would think that this limitation is very well known to the folks that
are SCT experts and probably wiil be addressed at an appropriate time. I think a
Real TIME bid/ask spread combined with a Real Time T&S monitoring would really
shed some light on the ebb and flow of volume.
But for now I am challenged getting my chart channels and identifying the 5
minute price formations.
Spydie, I don't know if I'm jumping ahead but would you care to comment on
the role of the 5m vs the 2m Gaussians.
When Where to use one OR the other?
Thanks.
Intra-bar PRV
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Otherwise, it would be cool to foster some discussion on this topic.
__________________
Questions
Quote from 8833broc:
Are Horizontal channels ( Support and Resistant ) allowed?
Quote from Joab:
Spydie, I don't know if I'm jumping ahead but would you care to comment on the role of the 5m vs the 2m Gaussians. When Where to use one OR the other?
__________________
Re: FBO and BO
Quote from Spydertrader:
When defining an FBO or a BO, I use the convention outlined in this post. ....
Hope that helped.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: FBO and BO
Quote from nkhoi:
In pink oval, look like the up channel was created by drawing a line over the 2 bars top first, is that ok?
__________________
Re: Intra-bar PRV
Quote from Spydertrader:
I apologize for the lengthy post, and I hope you find it useful.
- Spydertrader
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Intra-bar PRV
Spyder,
Quote from Spydertrader:
...
At this stage of the learning process, a Flaw (Hitch, Dip, Stall, etc.) may never appear to you any different than an FTT in real time - at the point in which the FTT occurs. However, as one gains experience monitoring the changes of price and volume, one immediately (the next bar) recognizes the flaws for what they are.
A combination of Price, Volume, Channel location and Context provide the clues for correct anticipation. However, even if your anticipation works out completely wrong, you benefit from the effort. By example, while in a downtrend, you observe increasing red volume. While calculating PRV in the first minute of the next bar, you notice price pullback slightly and volume (based on PRV) to be very low. Now, on the previous bar, you may have noticed the pace of Price and Volume slowing, and as a result you may have thought you had an FTT forming as price appeared to be a great distance from the left trend line (and even started to pullback). Since you thought you had an FTT, you took action, and as a result, watched as price moved away from your entry point. and continued to do so (although only a small amount) on the next bar. It is this significantly low volume level (based on PRV) which causes the concern. Since you have noticed many FTT's over the time observing the market, you realize FTT's do not act in such a fashion as this. As a result, you realize an error has been made, and what you once thought to be an FTT, you now realize is not. As a consequence of this analysis, you reverse to get back on the right side of the market. By the next bar, you notice improved volume in the same downward direction, and the market confirms what you felt - you had a Hitch. The process begins again, monitoring, analysis, decision making and taking action (Wash, Rinse, Repeat) bar after bar throughout the day.
When you say, Volume doesn't always act like we anticipate at the beginning of a bar, I can understand how this might cause frustration. Remain patient. No rush to action exists. Why? Because you are still at the input analysis stage. At this point in the learning process, I have handicapped the input data forcing everyone to focus on Price and Volume on the ES. The skill needing work requires the trader to shift their focus from the forest to the trees and back again as each bar unfolds. Big Picture to Fine Detail (Wash, Rinse, Repeat). When you find confusion at the PRV stage, zoom out (even push your chair back from your monitor if need be) and take a look at the 'big picture' for a moment. Is price creating some sort of formation (Flat Top Pennant, Flat Bottom Pennant, Symmetrical Pennant, Lateral) I can recognize within the channel? Does this tell me anything? Does an FTT at this specific point in time confirm a trend already in place (Point Three) or start a new trend? Does my anticipated End of bar Volume (based on PRV) make sense in terms of Gaussian Formation? If not, then perhaps I have a flaw.
As a trader gains experience, the above mental analysis occurs more rapidly and with greater accuracy. So, the next time you feel volume isn't telling you what it should, take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Remain patient and watch to see how things unfold. IF you witness a flaw forming in real time, note what happened, and if you see things progress as they should, you will have just proven to yourself that you need more patience.
...
Re: Intra-bar PRV
Quote from Spydertrader:
...you will have just proven to yourself that you need more patience.
I apologize for the lengthy post, and I hope you find it useful.
- Spydertrader
)
I think I'm gettin' the hang of this
Attached is my take on the day...
Re: FBO and BO
Quote from Spydertrader:
When defining an FBO or a BO, I use the convention outlined in this post. You have the thinking correct, but you need to switch you left and right. Keep in mind, we are looking at what happens after the FTT.
When we have an FTT, and we have price fail to breach the right trend line, we call it an FBO. When price continues to exceed the left trend line, we call it a volatility expansion and add additional (and parallel) trend lines.
- Spydertrader
This is probably a bit too early based on syllabus, but did anyone consider
making an e-book with this method? This would be a great introduction and would
get a lot of new people up to speed much faster.
I currently use a system where few practitioners created such a book, and it
saved me at least several months and large # of questions when I first came
across it.
Quote from RedDuke:
This is probably a bit too early based on syllabus, but did anyone consider making an e-book with this method? This would be a great introduction and would get a lot of new people up to speed much faster.
I currently use a system where few practitioners created such a book, and it saved me at least several months and large # of questions when I first came across it.
Quote from RedDuke:
This is probably a bit too early based on syllabus, but did anyone consider making an e-book with this method? This would be a great introduction and would get a lot of new people up to speed much faster.
I currently use a system where few practitioners created such a book, and it saved me at least several months and large # of questions when I first came across it.
Quote from Pr0crast:
I am creating something similar; you can see it when january is over (or sooner if you pm me). Basically a nice looking + organized doc/pdf of the important stuff so far. But it is presented in the order of the journal, so you still get the "journey" part of it rather than reading it like a well-written ebook. It just makes rereading the journal easier than printing out 500 ET pages.
Quote from RedDuke:
Hi Pr0crast,
This is exactly what I meant. Thanks for doing this. If it is updated through out the rest of the year, it will be huge help for all that will join later, and a great e-book to have and share with others.
Regards,
redduke
Re: Gaussian Formations.
Quote from Spydertrader:
In an effort to avoid any confusion (and develop a uniform system for discussion purposes) when referring to Gaussians, we should add additional modifiers to our shorthand.
For example,
V - B2R
/\ - B2R
By using the above shorthand, one instantly sees decreasing Black Volume followed by increasing Red Volume in a V-B2R.
In addition, /\-B2R signifies increasing Black Volume followed by Decreasing Red Volume.
From now on, I plan to use the above shorthand to insure improved transference. Let me know if anybody finds this slightly altered Gaussian Shorthand confusing.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Gaussian Formations.
Quote from dougcs:
Thanks as I was getting confused as I thought the first letter referred to the volume increasing and the second to decreasing volume. In reality it can be either.
Thanks,
Doug
I dont know how anyone can say that volume is no help. These two snippets
from yesterday I thought were such a good illustration. Volume told you exactly
what was going on. I dont see how it can get any clearer.
uptrend
x
Of course it is not always that clear but many times it is.
Re: Re: Re: Gaussian Formations.
Quote from nkhoi:
first letter referred to the volume increasing unless the letter repeats itself i.e. R2R or B2B
Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaussian Formations.
Quote from dougcs:
Now I'm confused as S's comment seemed to be the first letter could either be increasing or decreasing???
Doug
ES 12 Jan
ES 12 Jan
Hard work on simulator. Looking forward to the time when mistakes only cost me
0.25pts max.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I dont know how anyone can say that volume is no help. These two snippets from yesterday I thought were such a good illustration. Volume told you exactly what was going on. I dont see how it can get any clearer
Cant get any more recent than this:
Monitoring notes for 12 Jan 2007 attached. Early day today. Off for a vacation. See you all when I get back.
ES 5 min chart
Quote from dkm:
ES 5 min chart
Starting my weekend early too, attached is the day so far.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaussian Formations.
Quote from dougcs:
Now I'm confused as S's comment seemed to be the first letter could either be increasing or decreasing???
Doug
Today's ES Chart
Enjoy the extended weekend everyone.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: ES 12 Jan
Quote from PointOne:
ES 12 Jan
Hard work on simulator. Looking forward to the time when mistakes only cost me 0.25pts max.
Re: uptrend
Quote from Bearbelly:
x
Of course it is not always that clear but many times it is.
You are free to think whatever you like but if you were watching prv on the
retrace you just might get a heads up on the entry but please suit yourself and
ignore volume. If what your doing works for you more power to you. Happy
trading. I dont think youre going to dissuade anyone here from watching volume.
p.s. Even in Marks (Nihaba Ashi) comments which you praised so highly he said
that watching price only came after years of watching price AND volume.
Quote from Bearbelly:
You are free to think whatever you like but if you were watching prv on the retrace you just might get a heads up on the entry but please suit yourself and ignore volume. If what your doing works for you more power to you. Happy trading. I dont think youre going to dissuade anyone here from watching volume.
p.s. Even in Marks (Nihaba Ashi) comments which you praised so highly he said that watching price only came after years of watching price AND volume.
Quote from gerry875:
ok - so explain to me how volume tells you NOW (or in the moment you think about an entry) what is going to happen in the next n minutes? your "prv" does not tell you where the market will go or how far it will actually go. and during consolidation it won't tell you what happens next. you know/see what happens now (or happened up to the present moment) - not more - never.
marks post - i actually never really used or needed volume. price (bars) alone is really enough. what i posted was more a general statement - not particularly about volume. sooner or later the entire process of watching/analyzing becomes an intuitive/implicit thing where anything beyond price means distraction.
Most all of the great traders and technical analysts recommend watching volume but we are supposed to believe Gerry when he says it is of no use. Some peoples attitudes are hard to understand.
Quote from Joab:
Gerry, I have been trading with Volume as an indicator (way before I picked up Jacks method).
Just because you don't understand something does not make it any less real.
I assure you that some of the greatest hedge fund managers in this business all use Volume analysis as part of thier tool set.
Sorry my friend but your missing the boat.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Most all of the great traders and technical analysts recommend watching volume but we are supposed to believe Gerry when he says it is of no use. Some peoples attitudes are hard to understand.
I did not attempt to explain because I am just a student here and not qualified to do so. Perhaps one of the others can do so but I would imagine that if you have not got it by now you are not going to get it. Since you say you dont need it that should not be a problem. Good trading to you.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I did not attempt to explain because I am just a student here and not qualified to do so. Perhaps one of the others can do so but I would imagine that if you have not got it by now you are not going to get it. Since you say you dont need it that should not be a problem. Good trading to you.
Just a quickie. Regarding question on volume, we really have to think very
hard. Spyder and I spend a fair amount of time speaking offline about how we can
improve our efforts and reinforce what it is that we are attempting to get done
here. I have alot to catch up on here as I'm taking my first R&R in about 9
months from the beaches of N.Miami. In any event, I would strongly recommend
reviewing some of the earlier strict PV discussions. Since we are dealing with
broadstrokes not EVERY single V annotation will be flawless. However, the
majority will be as expected. Remember, the objective is to get to anticipation.
When we get a VDU bar, you are anticipating an exceedingly >VDU bar. WE KNOW
based on the PV relationship and PV matrix that the anticipated upcoming large
volume bar will have large price change. All of trading is based on the simple
fact that without price change, there is no profit. Doing a PRV CONFIRMS very
early into a bar that price change is there long before 5 minutes are up.
Mentally, you "GET IT" after doing it time and time again. After this period,
you are verifying that this statement is true. This is what we are doing now,
VERIFYING this relationship. Some of us have done the verification and we are
slicing and dicing many ways to allow others to verify according to their own
experience. Some will see it, some will not. That is how trading is. Not
everyone will get it. Take you what you can leave with what you can take. If
that's nothing, so be it...
Regards,
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from gerry875:
ok - never mind.
but you posted:
"I dont know how anyone can say that volume is no help. These two snippets from yesterday I thought were such a good illustration. Volume told you exactly what was going on. I dont see how it can get any clearer."
and
"... but if you were watching prv on the retrace you just might get a heads up on the entry..."
so - i thought you could explain more detailled what exactly was "clear", etc. to you.
anyway - thanks for your answer.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I regret posting those charts now as I dont think were supposed to be into volume yet
__________________
I agree Spyder. The only reason I responded to Gerry is that in spite of all the opposition he runs into he does not get into personal attacts or start calling names so I think he is probably a decent guy, just dancing to a different drummer.
Gerry875 - just some fragmented thoughts from my little corner of the www:
Basically, Mak's assesment of the offerings here pretty much nails it down. Some
folks will leave here with something of considerable value, while others will
walk away with nothing but feelings of frustration and defeat. It's a cruel
world out there, and this idea is only magnified in the world of trading.
I think it's a fair assesment to say that you have approached this journal from
the naysayer's perspective, and that is fine. But the distinction which begs to
be made is that Jack, Spyder et al are not making any promises here - they are
simply offering information, and very unselfishly, I might add. I'm quite amazed
when I stop and consider the amount of time they devote to this journal, and
Spyder in particular. Are there ulterior motives at play here - that possibility
always exists in cyberspace, and I'm sorry to say, I have fallen prey to it in
the past. But, personally, I do not believe this here, and I seriously doubt the
active posters have given this a second thought either. Many of the good things
in life are a product of trust: marriage and family, friendships, business
dealings, etc. And that is also required here. The teachers trust the students
will wholeheartedly apply themselves to the materials within the stated context
of the "course". And the students trust that what is presented does indeed
contain merit. It goes without stating, both sides are making a sizeable
commitment to time and effort
I believe one must adhere to Spyder's earlier request in order to advance here:
we must all put aside our preconceived notions, and approach all new ideas
openmindedly. It really is a pointless exercise to try and dispute what is being
suggested. Rather, if a person truly does want to proceed, he/she only needs to
put forth any question in a positive light, and I feel it will be answered
honestly and thoroughly. But does that guarantee that we will all leave as
advanced traders - far from it. There are far too many facets to this business
for any kind of guarantee to ever hold any weight. Furthermore, there can be no
"proof" that these methods will lead to success. We, only individually, can
either prove or disprove the end results to ourselves.
This post may have "sucker' written all over it. But guess what, I really don't
care. I have made my decision, and am here for the duration - win, lose or draw.
You, sir, have the same options.
Best of luck, and have a great weekend ...
Re: uptrend
Quote from Bearbelly:
x
Of course it is not always that clear but many times it is.
Re: uptrend
Assuming this snippet is from the same day as Bearbelly's (1/11/07 am), I thought I'd post mine as well to discuss my attempt at PV for the am.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from gerry875:
could you please explain what these two charts should actually express?
higher volume in trend phase - low volume in consolidation phase. enter at breakout - get out when move is over. but you could do the exact same thing without volume. volume is no leading indicator - it goes hand in hand with price.
Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Assuming this snippet is from the same day as Bearbelly's (1/11/07 am), I thought I'd post mine as well to discuss my attempt at PV for the am.
Notice my first FTT. Vol had just made a gaussian peak and price was beginning to retrace. On the next bar, price hit the TL and bounced. Although I may be wrong, I still consider the FTT to be valid (because price didn't traverse to the LTL), but price didn't BO.
My next "potential" FTT appeared on peaking volume (so much that I drew my first gaussian line) and price turned intrabar. However, price turned again and pushed higher. Also, price never made it back to the TL. So, this FTT became a !FTT for me.
After price pushed higher with increasing Vol, the next potential FTT appeared. This time, price turned with follow through short, BO'd the TL on a non-dominant traverse.
Next, the current guassian showed decreasing Red Vol and we ended up FTT'ing out of the non-dominant traverse into CCC.
I think this am is a good example of PV in the form of gaussians and FTT's. And it also shows where one (me) thought an FTT appeared but really didn't.
Sorry for taking up a big part of the page...
spooz
Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Assuming this snippet is from the same day as Bearbelly's (1/11/07 am), I thought I'd post mine as well to discuss my attempt at PV for the am.
Notice my first FTT. Vol had just made a gaussian peak and price was beginning to retrace. On the next bar, price hit the TL and bounced. Although I may be wrong, I still consider the FTT to be valid (because price didn't traverse to the LTL), but price didn't BO.
My next "potential" FTT appeared on peaking volume (so much that I drew my first gaussian line) and price turned intrabar. However, price turned again and pushed higher. Also, price never made it back to the TL. So, this FTT became a !FTT for me.
After price pushed higher with increasing Vol, the next potential FTT appeared. This time, price turned with follow through short, BO'd the TL on a non-dominant traverse.
Next, the current guassian showed decreasing Red Vol and we ended up FTT'ing out of the non-dominant traverse into CCC.
I think this am is a good example of PV in the form of gaussians and FTT's. And it also shows where one (me) thought an FTT appeared but really didn't.
Sorry for taking up a big part of the page...
spooz
Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from spooz_trader1:
spooz
Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from PointOne:
Excellent example to focus on. In terms of sequences, we had peak volume ex-post (long), price continued for another bar (momentum, 2nd chances to reverse / exit long) BUT we did not see R2R, so any short following a reversal would need further confirmation or be quickly cancelled.
Open question: when price is hugging the TL how do you definitively decide that although it is technically a FTT it is also continuation, using PV only?
Jack,
Quote from jack hershey:
...
This snip of the P, V shows a green channel and a bar bottom at the green.
At that point in time the snipper stops annotating.
...
. I need to
improve annotating the BO's and FBO's as well. I'm getting better/faster at
annotating but keeping up in real-time takes consistent effort, as you know.
Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from jack hershey:
We are working on continuing to hold mostly and, occasionallly we are dealing with "change" What is very neat about this is that both are not done at the same time nor are they both in question at the same time.
When you are looking at things from a view of "hold", then you are examining where you are in the container. Is the place in the container suitable. All containers are biased to long or short. The part of the container that is of concern is getting across it to more profits. We are proceeding to hold to cross the container to the place of best profitability.
...
If the price keeps moving across the container, we go with it, if it doen't we take evasive action to lock in profits at FTT and then go to the BO and hold through the BO. The lateral non dom becomes the cotainer of the CCC.
The idea is to know whats going on all the time by annotating and doing MADA........ At the end of January our skills and knowledge will give us a new adventure with more depth and understanding.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from PointOne:
I've further snipped the snippet and have a question about the 4th bar shown. This is a ftt and PRV is declining.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from Spydertrader:
Either way, the correct action during flaws (at this point of our learning curve) requires a trader to hold.
...
While you cannot know at the point of reverse whether or not price will go from Stall to HVS or on to the next FTT, what you do no for sure is that you did not have an FTT on Bar 3.
Of course, the above explanation assumes you had no other tools at your disposal besides the ES Price and Volume.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from Spydertrader:
...
Actually, it isn't an FTT. What we see here is a type of Flaw known as a 'Stall' based on Price and Volume. However, in real time, you may have thought Price was forming an FTT. At the time you would have made your decision, Volume would have been red. However, Red Volume and significantly lower Volume levels (based on a PRV basis and compared to the previous bar) normally indicate a 'Hitch' - another type of flaw. Either way, the correct action during flaws (at this point of our learning curve) requires a trader to hold.
...
The attached chart shows how illusory raw volume can be when compared to volume normalized by total price movement within the bar (the green histogram). This is one of many reasons why I argue that volume is irrelevant, that price leads volume, and that the alleged PV relation is fraudulent. My apologies to Magna for the intrusion. You may keep the indicator with my compliments. Since it is volume-derived, it's worthless, too. FWIW, the simple trend following rules in the helper pane show that Friday you could have saved yourself a lot of SCT work by just going long all day.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
"volume normalized by total price movement within the bar"
Elder's Force Index is an alternative view of the price/volume relationship. It
is something like:
Force Index = PriceChangeOverInterval / volume
It draws a histogram, centered around zero. For an interval, he may use the
close of the current bar minus the close of the previous bar, but it could be
done other ways. What he is attempting to visualize is the force or "wallop" of
volume. In thinking about it I realized that when there is no price change
during an interval, then that interval is irrelevant, because Force Index is
zero in that case, not to mention that price didn't change.
Quote from hypostomus:
The attached chart shows how illusory raw volume can be when compared to volume normalized by total price movement within the bar (the green histogram). This is one of many reasons why I argue that volume is irrelevant, that price leads volume, and that the alleged PV relation is fraudulent. My apologies to Magna for the intrusion. You may keep the indicator with my compliments. Since it is volume-derived, it's worthless, too. FWIW, the simple trend following rules in the helper pane show that Friday you could have saved yourself a lot of SCT work by just going long all day.
DAX example, PV relationship
If you're tired of looking at the ES, here's a nice DAX move from Thursday
following a FTT which shows the PV relationship. I was monitoring at the time
and yes, I did push the button in that cyan circle:
Note: at time of entry there was no indication of the size of the subsequent
move. That would be prediction and we don't do that.
Quote from hypostomus:
The attached chart shows how illusory raw volume can be when compared to volume normalized by total price movement within the bar (the green histogram). This is one of many reasons why I argue that volume is irrelevant, that price leads volume, and that the alleged PV relation is fraudulent. My apologies to Magna for the intrusion. You may keep the indicator with my compliments. Since it is volume-derived, it's worthless, too. FWIW, the simple trend following rules in the helper pane show that Friday you could have saved yourself a lot of SCT work by just going long all day.
It is not "poorly annotated", it is meant to be a thought-provoking exercise for the student. It proves nothing, but is merely suggestive that your precious volume is due to price variation, not the other way 'round. The proofs I save for my own personal pleasure. You will not see much hint of them in 5 minutes. Thank you for the statistic on how much I am ignored. Hugely informative.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Hypo, we get it. You dont think volume works. We understand. Nous compremos. Wir verstehen. Entendemos.
Hi Spyder and all,
Been a lurker for a while and have one question.Do you feel The methods you
employ work on EOD data,specifically daily and weekly bars??
Any insight appreciated
Tao
Quote from hypostomus:
The attached chart shows how illusory raw volume can be when compared to volume normalized by total price movement within the bar (the green histogram). This is one of many reasons why I argue that volume is irrelevant, that price leads volume, and that the alleged PV relation is fraudulent. My apologies to Magna for the intrusion. You may keep the indicator with my compliments. Since it is volume-derived, it's worthless, too. FWIW, the simple trend following rules in the helper pane show that Friday you could have saved yourself a lot of SCT work by just going long all day
Quote from taowave:
Been a lurker for a while and have one question.Do you feel The methods you employ work on EOD data,specifically daily and weekly bars??
__________________
They are saying that volume, once transacted, is predictive of price. Does price go up or down after Goldman is filled?
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Any market, Any time frame - provided sufficient liquidity exists.
- Spydertrader
Don't feed the animals
I encourage everyone to remain focused and avoid the temptation to engage in
debate with those with no other agenda than to sidetrack the focus of this
thread. ET has provided tools to facilitate this process. By clicking Ignore and
Complain, disruptive individuals fail to receive the attention they desire. I
encourage everyone to follow
Magna's advice and spend their time towards more productive ends.
Good Trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from hypostomus:
They are saying that volume, once transacted, is predictive of price. Does price go up or down after Goldman is filled?
Quote from taowave:
Before i go thru each journal,have you made any specific references to EOD trading on daily and weekly bars??? The only references I have from Jack is the reduced profitability of EOD relative to intraday...
__________________
Liquidity is necessary but not sufficient. Might one think RANGE has anything to do with it? TONS of liquidity, NO range.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from EstebanUno:
I've seen the flaw annotations on your charts, but haven't found much material about how to identify them. If these are part of the PV relationship we are covering in January, please direct me to where I can learn the details of these? (Like your last post - a great help.) It's not clear to me from the syllabus whether flaws are topical now or are being postponed until later. But I'd sure like to know more about them.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from R/R:
I am reviewing Jack's "Channels For Building Wealth" document right now and there are introductions to these concepts toward the end of the document.
The document is available here:
http://www.traderuniverse.info/documentspage.htm
Although it's an open forum I remind everyone that this thread is a
presentation of a particular methodology, a way of looking at the markets, along
with daily examples. It is not a debate over each and every point made, each and
every nuance. There are many other forums on ET arguing over those subjects
(importance of volume, relationship of price and volume, trendlines, channels,
support/resistance, use of indicators, etc.) and if these are burning issues for
you best that you take your conversation to those other threads or start your
own.
By quoting those who are anxious to contest each point you repeat and reinforce
what they say giving them credibility. Even more ironic,
you force all those who have them on Ignore to read their posts. I ask that if
you want to support Spydertrader's generous and extensive efforts you do not
quote them and do not engage them and do not comment on them,
as all that does is direct attention to them which is exactly what they want. As
Spydertrader recently said...
Quote from Spydertrader:
Debating with others over the validity of the P-V Relationship serves no purpose. In fact, it is a complete waste of time.
...I fail to understand why anyone who believes what has been posted here contains no merit would waste their time demanding 'proof' when so much less energy is required to simply walk away and not click on the link to this thread.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from EstebanUno:
I found very little on flaws however, the snippet on pg 119 seems to be it. "... Flaws and WWT are messages to you, that tell you to go and look at the depth of market. ..." So maybe this is a topic for April.
However it seems these flaws are an integral part of the PV relationship in the context of channels. It might simplify rather than complicate the identification of FTTs to be able to spot flaws strictly in the context of PV.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from EstebanUno:
I did read that document when this thread began. After just reviewing it looking for a discussion of flaws, it's clear to me that I would benefit from going over the material again, now that I have a much better understanding of channels and PV.
I found very little on flaws however, the snippet on pg 119 seems to be it. "... Flaws and WWT are messages to you, that tell you to go and look at the depth of market. ..." So maybe this is a topic for April.
However it seems these flaws are an integral part of the PV relationship in the context of channels. It might simplify rather than complicate the identification of FTTs to be able to spot flaws strictly in the context of PV.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from R/R:
Just to make sure we are on the same page, it is my understanding that "Flaw" is used in the current context as any of the following:
Hitch, Dip, Stall, HVS, CCC, etc. - as a flaw in the trend. These are discussed on page 101 with some PV description, but not in great depth.
You may well understand this and if so I apologize. However, I detected from your response that you were looking for a description of a Flaw, per se, as a particular (PV) formation rather than in a broader context.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from spooz_trader1:
...
However, if I take a WWT point of view, if "things" appear that don't help build the latter-half of the B2R guassian (or appear out of sequence), either I've made a *flaw* in my analysis of a FTT or I'm encountering a Flaw. Is this correct?
...
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: uptrend
Quote from EstebanUno:
Snip . . . It's not clear to me from the syllabus whether flaws are topical now or are being postponed until later. But I'd sure like to know more about them.
hitch was covered in this post
Quote from Spydertrader:
Enjoy the extended weekend everyone.
- Spydertrader
http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachmen...&postid=1324700
Today's holiday provided a good time for me to play some catch up and review
some areas of discussion that I wasn't able to completely sort out the first
time through. Although my channel drawings are not of expert quality yet, I feel
I have made some decent headway the past few weeks, and believed I had attained
a level of understanding concerning the proper mechanics. However, I now find
myself somewhat confused again in an area which has befuddled me from the start.
During the review, I came across these two posts, and in my mind, they seem to
be at odds w/ one another, and am hoping for some additional clarification.
Snipped from excav8tr's post:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...038#post1319038
"Once you have identified 1,2, and 3 the RTL is set in STONE (meaning no
adjustments) the adusted pt three is used when you are forming a completely new
channel and all you have to work with is 2 bars of data at a pt 1."
Snipped from makosgu's post:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...756#post1319756
" EXCELLENT QUESTION. If my bar 5 extends beyond the top of bar 4, I plot in a
NEW PT3. Why??? Because I am looking at my PRV and I find -PRV. With -PRV (ie.
DECR PRV), I am not expecting the bar to BO from the RTL simply because DECR V
dictates this is a NON-DOMINANT progression across the channel... "
If I am comprehending the above statements correctly, then excav8tr is saying
that once a 1,2,3 channel has been created, it shall remain as drawn (volatility
expansions excluded). OTOH, mak seems to state that he will allow an adjustment
to be made to an existing channel.
Now for some possibilities of my misinterpretation:
1. I have perhaps taken at least one of these gentlemen out of context.
2. The addition of prv analysis to the discussion creates an apples to oranges
comparison.
3. There simply are no hard and fast rules.
Sorry for the long post, and just hoping someone understands what I'm trying to
get at, which is basically: Should we never alter a channel once drawn, and any
"adjustments" should manifest themselves within a newly created channel? Thanks
...
My approach is to plot a channel using adjacent bars and use it as long as price is operating within the lines (see gray lines on chart). Quite often, as shown here, the FTT and the following bar do not form a channel that will hold for very long. When price breaks the gray lines I am looking for an FBO to establish PT3. At this point I will draw the RTL from the FTT to the "new" pt3 using the color of the trend. This essentially "adjusts" my channel, but I generally resist altering or deleting existing lines.
Quote from mephistoII: Should we never alter a channel once drawn, and any "adjustments" should manifest themselves within a newly created channel?
My chart so far.
I am only annotating this morning.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
My chart so far.
Quote from mephistoII:
....
If I am comprehending the above statements correctly, then excav8tr is saying that once a 1,2,3 channel has been created, it shall remain as drawn (volatility expansions excluded). OTOH, mak seems to state that he will allow an adjustment to be made to an existing channel.
Now for some possibilities of my misinterpretation:
1. I have perhaps taken at least one of these gentlemen out of context.
2. The addition of prv analysis to the discussion creates an apples to oranges comparison.
3. There simply are no hard and fast rules.
Sorry for the long post, and just hoping someone understands what I'm trying to get at, which is basically: Should we never alter a channel once drawn, and any "adjustments" should manifest themselves within a newly created channel? Thanks ...
Thanks, guys! Your thoughts substantiate my own, and unless corrected by the experts, this is how I will proceed. Have a good one ...
Cutting it a few minutes short today, but a couple of comments...
First, today I sensed a certain level of acquired unconscious competence. I'm
beginning to sense that what I once thought was subjective is actually something
else. Annotating is becoming more relaxed and automatic.
Second, it's clear (to me at least) that the earliest possible indent of FTT,
even if you end up being wrong, is the correct procedure. By doing this, I've
observed you are much more likely to be able to escape break even or even a
couple ticks profit in those cases where you entered incorrectly.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Forgot the chart....
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
lBundlemaker
I like your charts but wish you would get rid of the ES watermark so I could see
them clearer unless your fond of it for some reason. You can eliminate that
under misc in options.
Quote from Bearbelly:
lBundlemaker
I like your charts but wish you would get rid of the ES watermark so I could see them clearer unless your fond of it for some reason. You can eliminate that under misc in options.
I've just
been too lazy to get rid of it. I do apologize for the crazy color scheme.
Believe it or not, it really helps during my debriefing. In a very general way,
up tapes are black, down tapes are red/orange, flaws and lateral channels are
blue, and all other colors are just randomly employed so I can really "see" what
I was thinking when I look at the print out days or weeks later.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
My take on the day. If ya see any glaring mistakes, don't hesitate to holler
my first day trading ES using SCT, made 13 trades, net 7pts total.
mind you, I picked an easy day to try my luck; it was slow and orderly today.
Thanks ST and JH !!!
... and all those who contributed.
Here's my chart for today. It was a slow day, so it helps to take a look at the 15 min as well. - EZ
Quick question for all you Qcharts folks.
Does qcharts have a channel drawing tool (if so please advise where) or do you
draw each line individually?
Thanks.
draw each line easily and quickly, just select ray tool.
Quote from Joab:
Quick question for all you Qcharts folks.
Does qcharts have a channel drawing tool (if so please advise where) or do you draw each line individually?
Thanks.
A couple points of interest for the day, at least I thought so. And a
question.
1. The retrace of the purple channel in the rectangle in the 1400 hour is on r2B
Gaussian movement, so I'm already thinking this is a dominant traverse of the
yet to be established up channel.
2. Based on 1 above, the red bar at 14:25 looks like a retrace with declining
vol. Still it makes an FTT of the purple channel imo. The taped up channel
really helps one get back on the right side of the trend quickly because the
very next bar bounces off the taped RTL with strong PRV.
3. Harder to navigate was 15:45 bounce off the same purple channel, within the
marked circle. Dominate black V is still in force (though levels are low), but
this bar retraces hard with increasing V. This time I expected the retrace to
amount to something with the higher V on the red bar, maybe even reestablish the
dom traverse to the LTL. Didn't turn out that way as an HVS begins (yes or no?),
clouded by end of day V surging. Are there any clues here that might help keep
one out of trouble in this area.
I appreciate any supporting or conflicting analysis of these points.
The whole day, for context, or FWIW.
Quote from Ezzy:
Here's my chart for today. It was a slow day, so it helps to take a look at the 15 min as well. - EZ
Perhaps I can answer my own quetion - do we just ignore any Holiday price movement. Upon closer inspection, I can see on EstabanUno's second chart where yesterday's shortened session was simply omitted. Still unsure about a lot of this ...
Sorry to have to do this
I'm sorry to have to do this, but I know that I have skipped ahead a bunch.
I'm going back and reading from the beginning, but I do want to try to remain
current so that I can interact.
Spyder posted the following chart attached. When I was reading a post I think
from Globe or something like that he said that there was 4 types of channel
trends
(1) Traverse trends
(2) Intraday trends
(3) Short term trends
(4) Intermediate trends
In the chart would someone be able to clarify which of the go with which of the
4 choices.
light green- traverse trends
light red - traverse trends
solid green- ?
solid blue- ?
solid orange-?
purple line?
Again, sorry to have to go back to something that was already covered
__________________
Chris Matthews
forgot to include chart
__________________
Chris Matthews
Quote from mephistoII:
Perhaps I can answer my own quetion - do we just ignore any Holiday price movement. Upon closer inspection, I can see on EstabanUno's second chart where yesterday's shortened session was simply omitted. Still unsure about a lot of this ...
Re: Sorry to have to do this
Quote from ChrisMMM:
I'm sorry to have to do this, but I know that I have skipped ahead a bunch. I'm going back and reading from the beginning, but I do want to try to remain current so that I can interact.
Spyder posted the following chart attached. When I was reading a post I think from Globe or something like that he said that there was 4 types of channel trends
(1) Traverse trends
(2) Intraday trends
(3) Short term trends
(4) Intermediate trends
In the chart would someone be able to clarify which of the go with which of the 4 choices.
light green- traverse trends
light red - traverse trends
solid green- ?
solid blue- ?
solid orange-?
purple line?
Again, sorry to have to go back to something that was already covered
ah,
thank you, my fault. I shoud have read more
Gracias
__________________
Chris Matthews
Quote from Tums:
my first day trading ES using SCT, made 13 trades, net 7pts total.
mind you, I picked an easy day to try my luck; it was slow and orderly today.
Thanks ST and JH !!!
... and all those who contributed.
Quote from Tums:
my first day trading ES using SCT, made 13 trades, net 7pts total.
mind you, I picked an easy day to try my luck; it was slow and orderly today.
Thanks ST and JH !!!
... and all those who contributed.
Quote from EstebanUno:
QCharts usually screws up the data each holiday, and includes trading when the market is closed. After a while you'll see this data omitted from their database.
Quote from ChrisMMM:
ah,
thank you, my fault. I shoud have read more
Gracias
Quote from mephistoII:
Thank you for your response, EstabanUno. I guess it stands to reason, if we are to ignore the afterhours mkt, then it would follow to also disregard holiday trading sessions as well. Regards ...
Quote from Ezzy:
Actually you can note the top and bottom of the overnight session. (see attached, I edited my chart) It might act as a support or resistance level or have an effect on the daily range. More of a question for Jack. It was part of the pre-flight check though not sure if we're supposed to get into that at this point.
Sometimes I'll look at the overnight session to see how/if it is trending into the open, but don't use it for drawing channels.
Regards, EZ
Hi, just some questions.
I just noticed some kind of "double" FTT (check attachment). There's one on the
yellow channel and another one for the white channel. Should these be considered
stronger signals?
At first I did not want to consider it an FTT because of volume issues. However,
at the exact same time there was a volume peak at the 3 minute graph (see
attach). Is this silly to do (switch to lower timeframe to check for volume
peak) or is it ok? In this case it worked out and also yesterday there were some
examples where 5 min did not show anything significant but 3 minute did. Spyder,
is this something you do as well?
regards,
Ivo
Here's the second attachment. checkout volume at 10:10
ivob,
It can't be an FTT of the yellow channel because FTT's only occur on the
dominant travers. The yellow channel is a down trend, so an FTT could only occur
if price failed to reach the left (lower in a down trend) channel line.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from ivob: snip . . . However, at the exact same time there was a volume peak at the 3 minute graph (see attach). Is this silly to do (switch to lower timeframe to check for volume peak) or is it ok? In this case it worked out and also yesterday there were some examples where 5 min did not show anything significant but 3 minute did. Spyder, is this something you do as well?
regards,Ivo
Quote from jack hershey:Thanks for the log.
I owe some blank logs to some people.
snip. . . I make a point to comment on this elsewhere and if anyone is good at linkmanship post the link.
snip.. .
Left half of sheet is data set stuff
Right 1/4 can be the logging of trade results (bar and points and time) The important part in the middle 1/4 is the columns for ANALYSIS and DECISION and ACTION. Decision and action are single letters so they are narrow. ANALYSIS is the stated conclusion from the data set.
I am asking everyone to do this:
Get four blank pieces of paper and turn them to landscape position. On the sheets go through and M or W day by writing on the sheets down the middle (the analysis column) the conclusions that go in that column.
We know we have some FTT's and some BO's and Some FBO's.
You know, this is all geometry. I love the utter simplicity of this method. Channels, price and volume. Red and Black.
Today's chart
Revised log
Here's a revised copy of the log to keep more in tune with the program. I
left the YM section in there for next month, gave more room for notes and
analysis, and eliminated the P/L section as Spydertrader doesn't want us
focusing on the P/L.
I left in the "Timely Action" section in because I think that is needed to help
debrief later on (ex: to note when on the bar you noticed the FTT). For now the
"Decision" section should be fine for this level.
Regards - EZ
Hi Ezzy - thanks for providing the "tuned" form. Could I now talk you into filling in a row for a hypothetical bar, so as to get a better idea of what goes where. I'm unsure of the proper inclusions (or notations) under some of the various headings. It might help others as well if everyone is using a similar style of log format, as far as future discussions are concerned. Thanks again for your efforts - regards ...
Quote from Bearbelly:
You know, this is all geometry. I love the utter simplicity of this method. Channels, price and volume. Red and Black.
I, too, am relishing in this new
feeling of being "connected" to the mkt.
Quote from mephistoII:
Don't laugh, with my current skill level, I utilize a 1:1 RR and I do a lot of clicking - heheh. This is purely scalping, but done with PV creating the bias. I'm very anxious to learn more about DOM, T&S, pairs, etc.I am thankful that Spyder is presenting this material in his chosen format, as I have no intentions of engaging in live trading until after "graduation", and feel confident the coming months of preparedness will be well worth the efforts.
If this post is sending the wrong message, please say so and I will delete. What I'm trying to project is simply this: if I can do it, ANYBODY can.
For those interested I thought I would post a different type of log, one that
I have been working on and using for the last few days. While I have used
different log sheets for trading the ES over the last year, this idea came to me
recently. It is only intended for the type of "trading" (monitoring) as the case
may be that we are currently doing with the progression of the journal.
The primary purpose is for logging PRV. As one can see, it includes space for
intra-bar volume at specific times: 30 sec, 1 min, 2.5 min, and End of Bar. This
makes the math for PRV easy. After doing the math at each interval, I circle R
or B as the case may be (or just draw a horizontal line if neither prevails).
Also, there is a place for intra-bar assessment as well as a place to note
Decision and Action based upon what you see unfolding. Following MADA.
Obviously, the Decision and Action can come at any place within the bar, I just
put it at one end of the log for consistency.
While filling in all, or most all, of the Vol and PRV columns as well as many of
the Assessment, Decision and Action spaces together with annotating your chart
is a fair amount of work, I can attest to three things if you do it:
1) It will keep your "Head in the Game"
2) You will begin to see times where, as volume changes intra-bar, you begin to
more accurately predict what is coming next and
3) the trading day will pass rather quickly
Anyway, I hope some find this useful
Here is a portion of my ES monitor from this morning just to show an example.
And my ES chart from today.
the meetup videos now include up to Nov 06 meeting, click ok when password window pop up, you need java to access the site. http://www.traderuniverse.info/
Quote from PointOne:
mephistoII
I think you are missing the bigger picture here and should get out of your scalping mindset ASAP. All you are doing is adding to the flaws in the trends (where do hitches come from?), albeit with 1 lot.
IMHO, your personal goal is an unnecessary limitation - let the market tell you what is available, that's not your job.
I'm not trying to be mean.
*January 1 - ES Chart: Price, Volume, Channels and the FTT
Quote from nkhoi:
the meetup videos now include up to Nov 06 meeting, click ok when password window pop up, you need java to access the site. http://www.traderuniverse.info/
I do not even get that far: After clicking on the bluehost.com download link, the password window appears, I leave it blank and click on OK as indicated but it keeps popping up again....Result: I can't access the files at all...
__________________
"Short 20'000 Pokemon. My kids love it but what the hell."
Steve A. Cohen, SAC Capital Advisors
Quote from WD40:
My download hangs at ~ 30%
anybody having the same problem?
Quote from mephistoII:
Thanks to Ezzy and koamana for the log sheets - that is indeed where I really need to direct my attentions. I know such activities are extremely important, when considering mental imprints, and bridging gaps between the subconscious and conscious mind.
Quote from nkhoi:
the meetup videos now include up to Nov 06 meeting, click ok when password window pop up, you need java to access the site. http://www.traderuniverse.info/
ES Volume pace tool
Here is my ES volume pace tool converted to Excel. Sorry for the delay I have
a new job role at work and I have been swamped and also had to get my head
around excel progamming.
For a previous discussion of the tool see the following post and the subsequent
pages.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...217#post1308217
This should work with any data provider that supports DDE. You will need to find
the DDE syntax for your provider (see instructions in Sheet1 as well)
Currently the tool is configured to work with the IB demo account.
Getting started:
- When you open the documement you are prompted to update your links. For the
very First time select the "Don't Update" option
- Configure the DDE strings to get the ES volume from your data provider. Once
you are done save and close the document
- Open the document again and this time select the "Update" option
It shouldn't be too hard to convert this to TS or any other platform, the code
can be viewed using "view code" on Sheet1.
If you have questions, suggestions let me know.
Good luck with the tool
Quote from Bearbelly:
Do any of the videos pertain specifically to futures?
ES chart for the morning
Here is my ES chart for the morning.
if you focus on channel/forest you miss what a bar/tree is doing and vice
versa. By focus on labeling a bar you have to be aware of how that bar is in
related that channel or multiple channels for that matter. Thus there born the
awareness of forest and tree (the big picture) at the same time.
Quote from nkhoi:
if you focus on channel/forest you miss what a bar/tree is doing and vice versa. By focus on labeling a bar you have to be aware of how that bar is in related that channel or multiple channels for that matter. Thus there born the awareness of forest and tree (the big picture) at the same time.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
lol. well put bundle.
Re: ES Volume pace tool
Quote from bi9foot:
Here is my ES volume pace tool converted to Excel.
Bi9foot,
Thanks for posting the excel tool. Just having the instructions is a big help. I
hope to eventually modify it for Qcharts as it seems no one has done that yet.
Regards - EZ
Quote from Ezzy:
Bi9foot,
Thanks for posting the excel tool. Just having the instructions is a big help. I hope to eventually modify it for Qcharts as it seems no one has done that yet.
Regards - EZ
Quote from koamana:
For those interested I thought I would post a different type of log, one that I have been working on and using for the last few days. While I have used different log sheets for trading the ES over the last year, this idea came to me recently. It is only intended for the type of "trading" (monitoring) as the case may be that we are currently doing with the progression of the journal.
Today's work attached.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
I had a difficult time with the trend lines today. Alot of adjusting of what
I thought was pt 1 or 3. Not sure if it was because I am using a new charting
package for the first time or it was a result of just how today was.
Graph attached.
Quote from 8833broc:
I had a difficult time with the trend lines today. Alot of adjusting of what I thought was pt 1 or 3. Not sure if it was because I am using a new charting package for the first time or it was a result of just how today was.
Graph attached.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Volume
Bi9foot,
Thanks for the worksheet. I used it with my platform which is Thinkorswim with
no problems. I do have a question regarding volume. Given that volume will (on
average) typically taper off dramatically during the noon hours, how does one
take that into account? For example, if one observes what they think is a DU or
VDU ~ 12:00 or 12:30, how should one adjust they're assessment of the situation,
if at all? Or am I splitting hairs? I have attached an analysis I did on the NQ
for 2006 (I would have done it for the ES, but I didn't have the data, but I
suspect the pattern is the same). By looking at the chart, you will clearly see
why I'm posing my question.
Finally, I have been studying the Jack Hershey method since October and have
clearly "seen the light." I am astounded by Mr. Hershey's generosity and for
Spyder's (as well as other posters on the forum) tireless efforts to educate. I
look forward to more good stuff!
Re: Volume
Quote from WGTrader:
Bi9foot,
Given that volume will (on average) typically taper off dramatically during the noon hours, how does one take that into account? For example, if one observes what they think is a DU or VDU ~ 12:00 or 12:30, how should one adjust they're assessment of the situation, if at all? Or am I splitting hairs?
Quote from 8833broc:
I had a difficult time with the trend lines today. Alot of adjusting of what I thought was pt 1 or 3. Not sure if it was because I am using a new charting package for the first time or it was a result of just how today was.
Graph attached.
I felt like today was difficult too. Not much follow through, lots of back and forth action. I was trying to follow Mak's approach and be more strict on my channels. Worked OK in the morning, but I found it tough going in the PM. Anyway, here's today...
Brain Burp I used a 10 minute chart instead of 5 in my last post.
No wonder why things seemed a bit off today.
Bundlemaker said:
It's clear (to me at least) that the earliest possible indent of FTT, even if you end up being wrong, is the correct procedure. By doing this, I've observed you are much more likely to be able to escape break even or even a couple ticks profit in those cases where you entered incorrectly.
Re: Re: Volume
Quote from bi9foot:
Personally I would keep it simple and not worry about the lunch time.
MAK had posted a study of the ES point range at given volume levels and noted the riskiest entries are during the low volume periods. The graphic has been referred to several times (I think in this futures journal as well).
EDIT here it is http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1321447
In fact, if I remember correctly, MAK does not do anything until the volume for a 5 min bar has exceeded 2500 contracts.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
QQ re trading today
I see a lot of bars on the 2min and even 5min which have shot up on huge vol
only to close at or below their open price. How should we interpret this?
The ones I'm thinking of today happened (on the 5min) at 10:00, 10:55.
In other circumstances, I'd have figured that these would indicate an inability
to sustain a rally and so would portend a reversal. But not today. Does anyone
know what's going on?
Quote from foible:
QQ re trading today
I see a lot of bars on the 2min and even 5min which have shot up on huge vol only to close at or below their open price. How should we interpret this?
The ones I'm thinking of today happened (on the 5min) at 10:00, 10:55.
In other circumstances, I'd have figured that these would indicate an inability to sustain a rally and so would portend a reversal. But not today. Does anyone know what's going on?
Quote from jack hershey:
It was my birthday yesterday so I am running several 250 contract partial fills into the market.
Sorry about the spikes.
Calling it quits early. For some time now I keep observing FTT ...FBO....
FTT... FBO. I think it must be Friday afternoon
Have a great weekend all!
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
with dry up vol that's what you will get FBO to FBO.
ps. check out this Gann chart, I wonder if tunnel thru air = channel thru air
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6026#post236026
pss. this is off topic, please do not reply, thank
Quote from foible:
QQ re trading today
I see a lot of bars on the 2min and even 5min which have shot up on huge vol only to close at or below their open price. How should we interpret this?
The ones I'm thinking of today happened (on the 5min) at 10:00, 10:55.
In other circumstances, I'd have figured that these would indicate an inability to sustain a rally and so would portend a reversal. But not today. Does anyone know what's going on?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Birthday
Quote from jack hershey:
It was my birthday yesterday so I am running several 250 contract partial fills into the market.
Sorry about the spikes.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Todays chart
Here's todays chart. On the gaussians I took more a of a forest view.
Questions on the gaussians:
On the ellipse there was low volume and didn't seem to be any dominant direction
on volume. Are gaussians always there or only with higher volume/volatility? Is
this where we get into odd/even harmonics?
On the last R2R we're in a stall, so is it R2R or nothing there?
The last B2? is more of a general question. Sometimes I'll see a black rising to
black falling to red rising. We had a shift in dominance but there was no red
falling first: B/\R B/\B R/\B.
I thought B2B and R2R were only "between" the gaussians: B/\R
R/\B. Is that ok or am I reading it wrong?
Regarding the stalls/flaws MAK mentioned - I hope we get into more detail on
these as my notes have various definitions of dips, hitches and stalls, and it
would be nice to nail these down. At the end of the day it looked like we're in
a stall, then volume picks way up as trades are closed out. So HVS or? Is the
stall a close near the open, or a bar high (low) same as the last bar?
- EZ
HAPPY BIRTHDAY JACK
Everything all makes sense now that I know your a Capricorn
Re: Todays chart
Quote from Ezzy:
The last B2? is more of a general question. Sometimes I'll see a black rising to black falling to red rising. We had a shift in dominance but there was no red falling first: B/\R B/\B R/\B. I thought B2B and R2R were only "between" the gaussians: B/\R R/\B. Is that ok or am I reading it wrong?
- EZ [/B]
Quote from makosgu:
ALSO!!! KEEP IN MIND that you pointed out 2 bars which are FLAWS for you. If you get hung up on 2 bars, you miss the big picture.
For now, classify these two bars as having both a traverse (dominant) and retrace (non dominant).
Jack Hershey's birthday
So, you pumped the market to illustrate your "Volatility Compression" theory,
I guess.
According to Mak, the high bar (supposed at 10am , you entered several 250
contracts) representing HVS; may I say that it is a compression and led to an
expansion afterwards(for 11 bars).
Very good present that you gave to youself.
Re: Re: Todays chart
Quote from C99:
I'm seeing this too. Is this a valid transition?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: Jack Hershey's birthday
Quote from bucherwin:
So, you pumped the market to illustrate your "Volatility Compression" theory, I guess.
According to Mak, the high bar (supposed at 10am , you entered several 250 contracts) representing HVS; may I say that it is a compression and led to an expansion afterwards(for 11 bars).
Very good present that you gave to youself.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Some Gaussian food for thought. Ezzy's chart for the day spurred me to think
through some common Gaussian PV action.
Take a look at the almost identical attached examples, A, B, and C. Ex A is the
textbook progression that we are all comfortable with interpreting. B and C are
identical price and volume charts and quite similar to A, but with different
Gaussian interpretation. B shows an extra cycle where R becomes dominant.
I arrived at C by the following thought process. I look at price first and
attempt to identify a movement of 2 or more trending bars. I then assign a
guassian letter B or R for doms, b or r for non doms, to each price movement. If
you assume that the line price in the examples is progressing price bars without
flaws, then each price movement up or down begins at an H or L point. The
important point is that there is only ONE price movement in each red or black
leg, all the way from the H to the L, that I am attempting to assign a label to.
Therefore, up and down variations in the volume for each leg are viewed in the
entirety of the price leg.
Using this spot the trend first, assign a Gaussian second, has greatly
simplified what had often been a frustrating process. Ezzy, maybe this will help
with your interpretation of the area within the ellipse.
I hope this Gaussian interpretation is a correct one. We'll see what the experts
say.
PRV/FTT commentary
bar-by-bar PRV/FTT commentary posted, appreciate any feedback, esp. on action
points (entr/exit/rev).
Re: PRV/FTT commentary
Quote from Pr0crast:
bar-by-bar PRV/FTT commentary posted, appreciate any feedback, esp. on action points (entr/exit/rev).
Re: Re: PRV/FTT commentary
Quote from EstebanUno:
Not so sure about bar 7. Your commentary for it rings true, except it is an outside bar that closed well above the price on bar 6. Therefore I can't make the conclusion that it is an R2R. In fact it could just as easily be a rejection of going lower, getting set to resume the dominant B. I would consider it an HVS, until direction is more clear.
I'm also uneasy about the FBO on the red channel (bar 15) because I don't buy the channel. It looks like a tape that was extended. I see bar 15 as point 3 that would set the red channel, but I would have trouble marking it so until bar 16, when price breaks lower. But since it breaks on declining volume, I wouldn't want to trade this traverse. At this early point in my development of the JH method, I'm only wanting to trade right to left dominant traverses, and FTTs of channels. Don't know about exiting on tapes at this point either, though I like your logic there (bar 11).
Thanks for putting your analysis out there. It helps to see what others are thinking.
Re: Re: Re: PRV/FTT commentary
Quote from Pr0crast:
...
One thing that trips me up is which FTTs to reverse on, how many actions to take, etc. For example, if I'm long after an FTT and five bars later there's an ftt (lowercase) at the same time as an FBO (uppercase), does one reverse because it's an ftt or exit because it's an FBO? ...
Re: Re: Re: Re: PRV/FTT commentary
Quote from EstebanUno:
One thing that comes to mind is to rely the Gaussians. Has there been a change in the Gaussian dynamic. Has the traverse from the FTT turned into a dominant? If so, no reverse, if it is still non dominant, reverse.
...
I am always finding situations where there are multiple end results at the same time, if looking at multiple channels...
Quote from EstebanUno:
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Mak, thanks for the comments. It really helps my understanding to see your
thought processes behind this. I see your point about RT. C is much easier to
arrive at in hindsight. B is just reacting bar by bar.
I've noticed that not only dominate traverses, but also retraces often come to
an end with a shot of volume. RT it is hard to tell if this is the retrace
becoming dominant, or its swan song. The volume increases compared to the
previous bar (especially if the previous bar was fairly low V), but is still way
lower than it was when the retrace started at the H point. So even with the
increase it's still a decrease overall. At least that was my justification for
how to arrive at C realtime.
Perhaps the 2 min will help with this, or a close RT watch of how the volume
developed at the H point (the highest volume point). The H bar is usually some
combination of B and R volume as the retrace begins from the highest point. Then
one could see if the increase at the L point was an increase or decrease
compared to the R portion of the vol at the beginning of the downtrend.
I'm probably getting ahead of myself, I know. But I've seen some Gaussians drawn
on Spyder's chart and others that seem big picture oriented and ignore these
kind of bar by bar fluctuations.
Quote from EstebanUno:
..I'm probably getting ahead of myself, I know. But I've seen some Gaussians drawn on Spyder's chart and others that seem big picture oriented and ignore these kind of bar by bar fluctuations.
Quote from Ezzy:
...
But there should always be some established channel extended forward, even if it's a carry over channel. The intermediate channels are the ones to trade right now...
But I'll keep an open mind about
this point and watch for those extensions that make sense to me. I should post
an example, but not now.
Thanks, Nkhoi. I'll be studying that chart closely. But in the morning. Probably Monday morning.
Quote from EstebanUno:
But I've seen some Gaussians drawn on Spyder's chart and others that seem big picture oriented and ignore these kind of bar by bar fluctuations.
Quote from PointOne:
The most common action is Hold.
I'm giving serious thought to moving to the 6 minute fractal.
Mak or EstebanUno
I am trying to follow your recent discussion on channels and r2r
and I was confused on your usage and definition of PRV.
When you are referring to PRV are you referring to ProRata Volume?
Also what does +PRV and -PRV mean?
regards,
Quote from EstebanUno:
Yes it's the intermediate channels I'm talking about. Thanks for the reminder of the nomenclature. It's not unusual for me to have no new channel when there is a sudden change from up channel to down channel for example, because it takes a while for the point 3 to be established in the new down channel. I'm having a hard time accepting that the extensions of old channels that have been out of play for a long time or by a lot of price action become suddenly important again. If I extend all old intermediate channels forever into the future the chart resembles spaghetti, as someone noted recently.
I see your point about wide channels and trading off the tape.
Thanks for the comments. I'm looking forward to the development of the trading frequency you mention. Enjoy the weekend.
Here's the daily chart showing the long term channels and traverses.
The 60 minute showing a tighter view.
This is the 15 minute. The 30 minute actually looks better. Here you can see
that I probably should have redrawn the yellow downtrend channel across the
Wednesday and Friday peaks. If you always have a channel extended then there is
always a context. All the channels aren't extended, just as needed. The longer
the term the longer the channels.
I tried to clean up some of the annotations, but the daily chart is real messy.
Sometimes it helps to periodically redraw the channels on a fresh chart so you
can see the lines.
-EZ
Quote from 8833broc:
Mak or EstebanUno
snip. . . Also what does +PRV and -PRV mean?
regards,
Leaving early today but for those following I am posting what I've done thus
far.
For the first time today I have been able to identify flaws as such. It just
sort of happened. For those trying and not there yet I encourage you to just
keep annotating and annotating, it will pay off.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Nice work on identifying the flaws, bundle! Your chart looks exactly like mine.
gotta quit early today too, my day thus far...
Last two FTT's should be blue, not red. Forgot to change the color when I
copied them into place and didn't notice till I was in mspaint.
I also left a few FTT's in that were either identified too early or were just
wrong. These would be the 3rd, 5th, and 6th of the 7 I have in there.
One interesting thing I'm noticing is that even without rules for moving on to a
finer resolution of monitoring I know when I want finer resolution. I'm starting
to get a very accurate feel for those places where I wish I had more tools to
turn to.
Todays chart. I didn't mark the FTT's, FBO's, etc. You can see the Gaussian areas that were tough. Going to a shorter time frame might have helped, but there was still no dominant direction.
There was enough dominant direction in the morning to fill your pockets. Afternoons suck most of the time.
Quote from Bearbelly:
There was enough dominant direction in the morning to fill your pockets. Afternoons suck most of the time.
Here is my crack at today's ES chart. I didn't annotate the gaussians as I'm still having trouble intrepreting them. Any comments would be welcomed.
I am trying to get a handle on the gaussian volume patterns. As I see it, there are eight potential patterns (see attached). I think I know what to look for, but I'm not sure what the sequence should be in context with price and volume. I've read the posts, but I'm just not getting it. Any additional help here would be appreciated. Many thanks.
When I posted my ES chart, it lost some resolution. Don't know what's going on there. Here it is again as a JPEG.
Quote from WGTrader:
Here is my crack at today's ES chart. I didn't annotate the gaussians as I'm still having trouble intrepreting them. Any comments would be welcomed.
Thanks for your comments C99. After looking at my chart again, it seems
obvious now that the expansion line off the RTL was wrong! Regarding the
gaussian volume patterns, I'm trying to be loose in my intrepreation, but I
guess I still need more practice. My pdf is the beginning of a note sheet.
Wouldn't life be fun if real gaussian patterns were that clean!
Q
FTT comes earlier than FRV. By trading FTT, it is less likely to have all our old indicators (MACDHistogram, Stochastic) aligned at the old value set at the time of FTT. Do we need to redefine a set of indicator values for our daily analysis? Thanks.
Re: Q
Quote from ulmer:
FTT comes earlier than FRV. By trading FTT, it is less likely to have all our old indicators (MACDHistogram, Stochastic) aligned at the old value set at the time of FTT. Do we need to redefine a set of indicator values for our daily analysis? Thanks.
Originally Jack taught this starting with indicators, but Spydertrader is taking a different approach with the ES futures here.
Ezzy,
A bit confused here. If the volume is black, its based on the current bar's
price closing higher than the previous bar's closing right? We are not talking
about current bar's closing versus current bar's opening to determine whether
volume bar is black or red? Thanks.
Quote from Ezzy:
.....On the TS chart Nkhoi posted you'll find some formatting differences as the R-B volume coding is a little different from most. Usually the software default bar color is determined by the close in relation to the last close, some have it set to the close vs. open. Jack had admonished someone in the SCT journal for focusing on the close and not the concept, but how it's programmed has an effect on the look of your gaussians. Keep that in mind.....
Regards - EZ
It depends on the software. Many of the charts posted by Spyder and others are with Qcharts. I haven't used Qcharts in years but they used to color code bars based on close versus open, like candle stick charts - not close versus previous bar close which is how I have my software coded. From observing charts posted I am certain that this is still the convention.
Quote from billp:
Ezzy,
A bit confused here. If the volume is black, its based on the current bar's price closing higher than the previous bar's closing right? We are not talking about current bar's closing versus current bar's opening to determine whether volume bar is black or red? Thanks.
Quote from R/R:
It depends on the software. Many of the charts posted by Spyder and others are with Qcharts. I haven't used Qcharts in years but they used to color code bars based on close versus open, like candle stick charts - not close versus previous bar close which is how I have my software coded. From observing charts posted I am certain that this is still the convention.
However most bars will appear the same either way unless there is a gap.
Quote from R/R:
As an example observe the first bar of 1/22/07 marked on my 5 min ES chart attached. Price and volume bars are shown in black because price closed above previous bar. Compare to other charts posted and many of the same bars will be red because the bar's close is below the open.
WGTrader
"I am trying to get a handle on the gaussian volume patterns. As I see it,
there are eight potential patterns (see attached). I think I know what to look
for, but I'm not sure what the sequence should be in context with price and
volume. I've read the posts, but I'm just not getting it. Any additional help
here would be appreciated. Many thanks."
Your attachment was helpful but you did not include what action would be
appropriate with each pattern. Can you do that?
reb
Quote from REB:
...reb [/B]
Quote from nkhoi:
you need to be clear on B2R, R2B, R2R, B2B first, also please see c99 comment on prev page. We are not concern with every possible permutation in the universe, only the one that matter.
Quote from mephistoII:
nkhoi - is it logical for one to assume then that we can also consider the 'inverses' of the examples you circled?
For instance, considering your top circled example: B V B ... happens at ends of down trends ...
does it follow then that B /\ B would happen at ends of up trends?
I have noticed this pattern ( B /\ B ) at the ends of uptrends, but what I don't know is if it can be categorized only as such. Perhaps we should not try and pigeon hole this stuff - at this point, I really have no idea. Regards ...
Quote from R/R:
isn't this an example? We have diminishing demand at the top or the rally. Picture the red bar at the top as part black vol and part red vol.
Quote from mephistoII:
Seems to be, R/R, but I would need to see a bit more chart (context) to say for sure. I do know that anybody who is staying on the right side today must have this stuff down pat
Quote from mephistoII:
nkhoi - is it logical for one to assume then that we can also consider the 'inverses' of the examples you circled?
...
I'll be on vacation for next two weeks, so good learning (and trading) to all until I return.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from R/R:
that rally started 3:20 yesterday. See the chart link I posted previously or your chart for the larger picture.
Quote from bundlemaker:
I'll be on vacation for next two weeks, so good learning (and trading) to all until I return.
Here's a nice example of B/\R just completed
Quote from nkhoi:
you need to be clear on B2R, R2B, R2R, B2B first, also please see c99 comment on prev page. We are not concern with every possible permutation in the universe, only the one that matter.
Quote from billp:
Ezzy,
A bit confused here. If the volume is black, its based on the current bar's price closing higher than the previous bar's closing right? We are not talking about current bar's closing versus current bar's opening to determine whether volume bar is black or red? Thanks.
Quote from Ezzy:
nkhoi,
Great gaussian graphics, it shows all the formations possible and was exactly what I was getting at regarding the B2B shift at a peak. The third formation is a B2B at the peak. Which suggests the trend has shifted from up to down as the next expected gaussian would be red rising (R/\B).
...
Thanks for clearing that up. - EZ
For those interested Real Time annotated chart attached.
Today's ES chart with the 5-day 30 minute chart next to it. It's interesting to note that the long channel established at 10:45 AM this morning (pt 3 on my chart), was not broken until 2:05 PM. That's quite a run! Since I'm still a newbie at this, any comments will be appreciated.
Quote from 8833broc:
For those interested Real Time annotated chart attached.
__________________
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Gaussian simplified.
Just ignore me if this confuses you. Remember I'm just learning, and I haven't
read anything about this from the experts. I think the principles are unchanged,
however.
Like many, I've been a bit confounded trying to annotate up/down Gaussian
movements. I've been noticing that where I really go wrong is during the
laterals. Black and red don't mean much here IMO, but the colors can sure
confuse the picture. I feel I've got the big picture in my mind of what I'm
looking for, but so often the minor ups and downs of volume during lateral price
movement turn my picture into a soup that camoflauges that very forest view I'm
looking for. Often I think I've changed dominants when all I've really done is
slide sideways, usually at lower volume levels.
So I thought why not eliminate these areas from the Gaussian analysis. I don't
doubt the Gaussian movement during these laterals is important in its own right,
but so far I haven't been able to make sense of it. I think the volume movement
in these areas is a more advanced topic.
I've attached a chart of today where I've drawn the lateral price movements in a
light brown color. The up trending price portions are black lines, red are down
trending. The lettered notations are black font when the interpretation is up,
red when down. Case is used to indicated DOMINATE, non dominant. All the
notations ignore the light brown lines completely, EXCEPT that they reset the
volume levels to interpret the direction of the next trending Gaussian.
This forest view was very good at keeping one on the right side of the market
today. Of course that's just today. I'll be watching it for the rest of the
week.
Quote from C99:[b]
...
And when looking at the gaussians on the 5 min fractal, you need to be loose in your interpretation. Very rarely will they look as perfect as your .pdf. The main point to take is that one direct will usually have increasing volume and the other direction decreasing volume. If the increasing vol is in the direction of the trend, all is good. If it is not, you should be on the lookout for change.
...
Quote from EstebanUno:
Gaussian simplified.
...
Like many, I've been a bit confounded trying to annotate up/down Gaussian movements. I've been noticing that where I really go wrong is during the laterals. Black and red don't mean much here IMO, but the colors can sure confuse the picture. I feel I've got the big picture in my mind of what I'm looking for, but so often the minor ups and downs of volume during lateral price movement turn my picture into a soup that camoflauges that very forest view I'm looking for. Often I think I've changed dominants when all I've really done is slide sideways, usually at lower volume levels.
So I thought why not eliminate these areas from the Gaussian analysis. I don't doubt the Gaussian movement during these laterals is important in its own right, but so far I haven't been able to make sense of it. I think the volume movement in these areas is a more advanced topic.
I've attached a chart of today where I've drawn the lateral price movements in a light brown color. The up trending price portions are black lines, red are down trending. The lettered notations are black font when the interpretation is up, red when down. Case is used to indicated DOMINATE, non dominant. All the notations ignore the light brown lines completely, EXCEPT that they reset the volume levels to interpret the direction of the next trending Gaussian.
This forest view was very good at keeping one on the right side of the market today. Of course that's just today. I'll be watching it for the rest of the week.
[b]
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from makosgu:
...
If you are attempting to simplify things, then just focus on the dominants with at least MEDIUM to EXTREME VOLUME (ie. PACE)... You'll see few if not any VOLUME bars that are greater than MEDIUM in laterals and pennants...
EstebanUno and Mak both, excellent posts. Thank you. You guys have confirmed
things I was seeing and feeling but wasn't quite sure how to verbalize.
This has been an enlightening month so far and I feel alot of things are
beginning to fall into place. In just a few short weeks I feel more in tune to
what's going on than I ever have. Amazing what a few simple scopes, bounds and
pace can do to eliminate that fear of falling off the edge, and get me out of
the edge mindset.
Looking forward to all that is to come...
And Mak- glad to hear tool set will be geared toward esig. Not a huge fan, but i
use them because they are so widely supported. Currently using the esignal /
neoticker / IB combo for futures.
Have we lost Spyder? Vacation? I miss his daily charts for comparison.
Spyder is in Arizona! roadtrip... lol
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from C99:
Have we lost Spyder? Vacation? I miss his daily charts for comparison.
Quote from Ezzy:
As others have mentioned is depends on the software, generally it's close to close. Today I had a bar where both open and close were the same price and lower than the previous close. It is a black bar on my screen and should be red. So there will be minor differences here and there but don't get hung up on them. That is why it's important to look a little loosely at times - at the price movement.
I noted the discrepencies on the Tradestation chart attached. There was obviously some unique bar coding here. The important thing is the concept, the movement of price with regard to the volume.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: PRV/FTT commentary
EstebanUno - thanks for posting the volume formations. Hopefully we'll get some answers on that. I have a theory that when we get into congestion or stall where the bars go r-b-r-b-r-b-r-b and there is no dominant, that there is no gaussian and we need to wait for the dominant to show up. We'll see how this plays out.
Re: WGTrader
Quote from REB:
"I am trying to get a handle on the gaussian volume patterns. As I see it, there are eight potential patterns (see attached). I think I know what to look for, but I'm not sure what the sequence should be in context with price and volume. I've read the posts, but I'm just not getting it. Any additional help here would be appreciated. Many thanks."
reb
Hi all,
I just have a question about exits that others may have as well.
We are supposed to exit on the next FTT after an FTT.
Imagine price traversing from right to left (dominant). We are making money.
Price hits LTL and traverses to the right on lower volume. We expect price to
hit RTL and then traverse to the left again reaching the trendline or maybe not
(FTT)
But what happens is price hits RTL and breaks thru and the trend changes. We are
losing money.
Does this mean I missed an FTT or I still have to wait longer?
Or should I have said at LTL let's take some profits?
I know after FTT a BO, FBO or another FTT occurs but is a BO always preceeded by
an FTT?
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
We are supposed to exit on the next FTT after an FTT.
Quote from ivob:
I know after FTT a BO, FBO or another FTT occurs but is a BO always preceeded by an FTT?
__________________
Tucson Update
I expect to post an update on the Tucson Meetings, as well as the Video Files
to be made available in the near future.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Thanks R/R and Ezzy.
I too same with others have problems reading the gaussian formation.
Quote from billp:
Thanks R/R and Ezzy.
I too same with others have problems reading the gaussian formation.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
MAK,
Thank you for your explanation of the dynamic nature of the guassian cycle
length. That was helpful. As I understand it now, when the pace is slow/DU/VDU
the gaussian cycle is short. When the pace is fast, the gaussian cycle is
long(er). I have noticed that when I chart a longer fractal (i.e. 5 day, 30-min)
next to the daily 5 min fractal, the gaussians cycles jump right out! Thanks.
A question about LT extensions.
A question about LT extensions.
Once an extension is in place, do we continue to extend the original LT and use
it again as a LT for FBO and BO analysis, if price falls back into the price
range of the original channel? Or do we just have a wider channel now, from RT
to LT extension?
I apologize if this has already been asked and answered.
Quote from makosgu:
We have to be very careful. The gaussians are always there. Remember, the gaussian is nothing but simply a single cycle of volume surging and then receding. snip. . .
In the VDU territory, you actually have to read the gaussian off the T&S/DOM. The whole point is that LONGER period gaussians are easier to read on the 5M then SHORTER period gaussians. In the future, we will be adding a sub fractal resolution where will do all the same analysis on a subfractal and only WHEN we ARRIVE in these zones. snip. . .
Regards,
MAK
Re: A question about LT extensions.
Quote from EstebanUno:
A question about LT extensions.
Once an extension is in place, do we continue to extend the original LT and use it again as a LT for FBO and BO analysis, if price falls back into the price range of the original channel? Or do we just have a wider channel now, from RT to LT extension?
I apologize if this has already been asked and answered.
The gaussian forest view held black all day, until just before the close. I
didn't draw in the brown flat lines in the volume today.
Here's my chart for the day.
Today's chart. Morning was a mess for me. I didn't have any grasp of what was
going on until an hour into trading.
Darker channels are my real time efforts trying to be mindful of P,V. I added
two channels later that I labeled 1 and 2. These channels seem to be good
containers of price action, but #1 especially didn't have good supporting volume
formations. In cases like this, where you have a well-defined channel whose
boundaries price seems to be respectful of but lacks V confirmation, should the
channel be annotated or ignored?
Quote from makosgu:
SNIP
In the future, we will be adding a sub fractal resolution where will do all the same analysis on a subfractal and only WHEN we ARRIVE in these zones.
Regards,
MAK
Quote from ivob:
That's funny. When I think I see an FTT occuring I already kind of automatically switch to a 2 min. chart to see more clear what's going on and then it often becomes much more obvious. One can enter quicker. Is that what you mean? I know we aren't there yet and there's probably more it. Can't wait to learn!
regards,
Ivo
shhhh!
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
[QUOTE]Quote from makosgu:
[B]We have to be very careful. The gaussians are always there. ....
MAK
Thank you for your post. This is comming slowly but surely.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Well nobody should have had a problem drawing THE channel today.
Here is today's 5-min ES chart with the 2-min YM chart next to it. It was interesting for me to see again how price followed the channel established at 11:15 (see pt 3 on the ES chart), till about 13:45 when there was an expansion of the left trend line. But I think what was most interesting today is to have watched the price cut loose to the down side after the lateral period of DU volume. It was so easy to see what was up ahead when I was watching the 2-min YM at the same time as watching the 5-min ES. This was my first time to watch both at the same time and it was quite enlighting. I hope I'm not jumping ahead in the program, but I just wanted to share today's experiement.
I only had one intermediate channel for the whole day. I was content with how
price was behaving within it, so I didn't feel the need to force more down
channels.
The gaussian forest view was the opposite of the previous 2 days. Dominant RED
all day until just before the close. I guess we've had 3 consecutive trending
days. It's clear the big picture view of the gaussians is valuable on a trending
day. I wonder how badly it lags on a choppy day?
The stickiest interpretation of the gaussian direction I found so far is after a
strong climax like at 14:35. Hard to interpret slightly rising black without a
good base created to compare it to. Lower than the mixture of volume at the the
climax, higher than the previous and only sideways bar. At the time I decided to
punt, i.e. wait for another rising black before drawing it in. It never
materialized.
Here's today's chart. Through my eyes.
For those interested RT fully annotated chart of today.
Due to the large drop today the chart is in 2 part.
part 2
Previous charts comments
I annotated some of the volume moves out of the lateral formations on a per
minute basis on the charts. I felt that the lower factal volume , especially
around the 1pm low volume pace lateral, would be a real good indicator of the
strength of the move.
The minutely volume out of these moves really jumped out at me today.
Just throwing up the 5M and 15M... Different fractal, same tools. Strict PV
as usual...
Also note how the channels of the 5M are the legs of the 15M.
__________________
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Mak,
I didn't think we could steepen a channel. I thought we went from up to down and
down to up, throwing in a few laterals where needed. I was under the impression
that steepening was handled by volatility extensions. I occasionally had down >
lateral that broke the down> down again, but your RTL was not violated. So I'm
confused.
Could you explain what it is you saw that caused a new, steeper channel in the
same direction rather than an extension? From my limited experience, I
understand steeper channels will sometimes give an FTT sooner. But other than
that, I don't see how to differentiate the P,V clues that made the first channel
valid from those that would lead to a steeper one.
And one other Q I came up with today. Let's assume a down channel for this. Is
an FTT always the pt. 1 for a new channel? If the FTT is also a lower low, this
would make sense. But if the FTT is a higher low, can we use the LTL bounce or
LTL extension as the pt 1 and the FTT as Pt 3? I ask because I was having
trouble understanding why the beginner rules were to enter on the FTT. I get the
importance of finding the ftts, but if the FTT is pt 1, it's a counter trend
trade. I'm not trading any of this yet, but just thinking ahead. I realized
today that if the FTT can be the pt 3 and P,V has flipped, then the FTT entry is
actually a trade with the new trend. Hope that makes sense and I appreciate any
insight here.
Quote from C99:
...
I didn't think we could steepen a channel. I thought we went from up to down and down to up, throwing in a few laterals where needed. I was under the impression that steepening was handled by volatility extensions. I occasionally had down > lateral that broke the down> down again, but your RTL was not violated. So I'm confused.
__________________
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
MAK,
Care to comment on my questions in this post?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...858#post1337858
C99 - here is the pic to which Mak referred in his last post, wrt the FTT and
Point 1 Q. ( I'm always going back in the journal to drive this stuff home and
had just recently viewed it)
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...212#post1315212
Quote from mephistoII:
C99 - here is the pic to which Mak referred in his last post, wrt the FTT and Point 1 Q. ( I'm always going back in the journal to drive this stuff home and had just recently viewed it)
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...212#post1315212
Quote from C99:
... I ask because I was having trouble understanding why the beginner rules were to enter on the FTT. I get the importance of finding the ftts, but if the FTT is pt 1, it's a counter trend trade. I'm not trading any of this yet, but just thinking ahead. I realized today that if the FTT can be the pt 3 and P,V has flipped, then the FTT entry is actually a trade with the new trend. Hope that makes sense and I appreciate any insight here.
MAK,
I to had some questions on this a couple of weeks back. I do not know if I have
resolved them yet. I looked at this as seen in the attached chart. (I just
finally got my futures account changed to a new one and got live ES data on QT.
so please bear with me on the quality of my chart.)
On the 11:25 bar I saw it as an FTT since the bars went from the LTL two bars
before that, tried to traverse to the RTL,failed and then had that down bar at
11:25 as marked with the arrow. I realized that we were probably in some CCC due
to lunch and started my gray CCC channel then. This channel took me back to the
RTL of the trend for the day.
The question becomes from this and other charts I have tried to annotate, do I
officially have an FTT at this point after only a one bar attempt to go back to
the RTL? Or, am I just dreaming up FTT's on the fly?
Again, thank you for your help and Spyder and Jack's help on this. This is some
of the most outstanding work I have ever seen to help other individuals.
Quote from makosgu:
Thanks for your Q! I was hoping somebody would ask and today was a great day to highlight what I call "tightening the channel". We had a similar day a few days back where the morning just sank and we watched a prolonged short channel ensue. You will have to keep in mind that I am a strict PV person. VERY STRICT. You can check all the dominants I annotated on volume. So for me this is my containter. Since pts 1,2,3 are critical values of the channel, I explicitly correspond pts 1, 2, 3 with volume. You are correct, you can handle your channel by pushing out the LTL due to the volatility expansion of the channel. So for the moment, look at the 5M and ignore the grey channel lines. On the second short channel, which began around 11:30 on the RED DOMINANT VOLUME, I get pts 1, 2, and 3 within approx 25M from the break out of the blue lateral. It is business as usual until I get to 12:05 where I get volatility expansion of the original short channel, WHICH WE ANNOTATE AND EXPAND our LTL! By the 12:30 the channel has been in place for about an hour. On this 12:30, I saw a RED DOMINANT out of a NON DOMINANT. My PV orientation expects a TRAVERSE to ensue. For me, such a bar is a point at which I TIGHTEN my channel as PV has put in a new critical point (ie. a new pt3). Nonetheless, lets say you don't tightent, then your channel goes until about 12:50 where you would get an FTT off of the original RTL.
....
Regards,
MAK
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from Lightbody:
MAK,
I to had some questions on this a couple of weeks back. I do not know if I have resolved them yet. I looked at this as seen in the attached chart. (I just finally got my futures account changed to a new one and got live ES data on QT. so please bear with me on the quality of my chart.)
On the 11:25 bar I saw it as an FTT since the bars went from the LTL two bars before that, tried to traverse to the RTL,failed and then had that down bar at 11:25 as marked with the arrow. I realized that we were probably in some CCC due to lunch and started my gray CCC channel then. This channel took me back to the RTL of the trend for the day.
The question becomes from this and other charts I have tried to annotate, do I officially have an FTT at this point after only a one bar attempt to go back to the RTL? Or, am I just dreaming up FTT's on the fly?
Again, thank you for your help and Spyder and Jack's help on this. This is some of the most outstanding work I have ever seen to help other individuals.
Calling it a week here - the sunshine beckons
Sure did a lot of channel jumpin today - right or wrong, here's mine for
comparison's sake.
Have a great weekend ...
just want to see if this one can match Mak chart
So I jumped ahead a few days and added my YM chart today. What a huge
difference that makes. Made ID'ing everything ten times easier.
Here's ES...Red is carryove from yesterday.
And YM. Have a nice weekend everyone.
Here's my spaghetti chart for the day.
And sorry for the wide pics- I'm on widescreen monitors. I'll make them smaller when I post inline in the future so people don't have to scroll right for all the other posts on the page. I hate that.
Quote from EstebanUno:
As you stated in your question, what you have circled would be an FTT of the traverse from left to right TL. FTTs are failures of right to left only.
As to whether or not that bar is failure enough (if it was right to left), I think it's a personal choice at this point in our development.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Follow the Syllabus
In an effort to keep the thread on topic, please follow the syllabus and
avoid jumping ahead until the appropriate time. We start the YM discussion
February 1st.
Thank-you.
- Spydertrader (from Tucson)
__________________
Quote from Lightbody:
Obviously I did not ask my question clear enough. The ES went to the LTL. It then had an up bar in an effort to go to the RTL and reversed. It now tries to go to the LTL again and fails. Therefore, I labled it an FTT.
The question still is, is it an FTT with respect to the red trend lines?
Thank you.
Quote from nkhoi:
just want to see if this one can match Mak chart
Quote from svrz:
Kewl, another YM fan.
Here is my version of the YM07H.
We may differ a bit in how we see the channels.
I hope I didn't open up a can of worms by posting my YM chart a few days ago!
I'm gona sit tight and take the
teachers lead.
Quote from Lightbody:
Obviously I did not ask my question clear enough. The ES went to the LTL. It then had an up bar in an effort to go to the RTL and reversed. It now tries to go to the LTL again and fails. Therefore, I labled it an FTT.
The question still is, is it an FTT with respect to the red trend lines?
Thank you.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from makosgu:
Check my chart for the same day. I had an original channel and a tightened channel which was explicitly due to the bar you pointed out because I had dominant volume (ie. a redefined pt3). In the tightened channel it is without question an FTT. In the original channel, it is a prolonged stall...
MAK
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from EstebanUno:
Sorry I misread your chart. It's not enough for me, but like I stated before, this part is pretty subjective, as far as I can tell. I would need more movement away from the LT, like a break of the high of the bar that extended it 3 bars before, before I would consider the new movement toward the LT to be a new surge that fails. The movement could also be more horizontal movement, but then I'd need a more definitive attempt to trend toward the LT (like a break of the LT touching bar). As it is it all looks like part of the FBO that I labelled RT.
Take with the usual caveat: I'm just learning too.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from WGTrader:
I hope I didn't open up a can of worms by posting my YM chart a few days ago!
Quote from Lightbody:
...Now I must be more vigilant and get a little more strict when drawing my channels.
Quote from Ezzy:
MAK,
Care to comment on my questions in this post?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...858#post1337858
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from nkhoi:
just want to see if this one can match Mak chart
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Thank, they should be in the same shape, that is what I am shooting for.
MAK,
Actually I didn't want to go into the first 2 questions, they were just "yes" or
"no".
The third question was on gaussians in general, not the YM. Harmonics should be
able to be seen on the ES. I thought they might be a clue to end
effects/changes, as we move into slow pace or CCC.
If you think the harmonics are for later I can wait. Thought they were related
to the gausians.
Thanks for the reply, I was beginning to think you had me on ignore.
-EZ
Quote from Ezzy:
...
The third question was on gaussians in general, not the YM. Harmonics should be able to be seen on the ES. I thought they might be a clue to end effects/changes, as we move into slow pace or CCC.
...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
ES07H012607
Mak:
I need some critic from you.
Thanks.
Re: ES07H012607
Quote from bucherwin:
Mak:
I need some critic from you.
Thanks.
Price, Volume and A/D Gaussians
Here's a schematic I put together on the P, V, A/D relationship following Jack's methodology. It's written from a long stock perspective but is equally applicable to futures:
I noticed in the syllabus that there was no mention of Pivot Points, Support,
or Resistance. For me, having these in before the day begins is very very
helpful in finding where the stop signs might be.
I am still working away on stocks but found PP specifically helpful with
daytrading the ES.
Mak and Spy are much further ahead than I am in skills so maybe PP is not as
impt as i have found them to be.
I will be on vaca for a couple weeks but am looking forward to the YM. I have
heard that it leads eventhough I have still not seen it with my own eyes
anyone on here today? dont see anyone in chat, trying to make sense of the day so far...
Quote from Jander:
anyone on here today? dont see anyone in chat, trying to make sense of the day so far...
Quote from JDAndy:
This is what I have so far, FWIW.
thanks Andy...
Did you have another ftt of the pink channel at 11:15?
Quote from JDAndy:
This is what I have so far, FWIW.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from Lightbody:
I was having a little trouble with this. How did you determine that the last ftt you have on your chart was an FTT?
Thanks
Yep...also, I reset the last channel with a new point 3 at 11:00 (bar 19) with pt 2 remaining at 10:40/45. At 11:40 & 50 I indicated FBO's on this new channel and we just had a channel expansion.
Quote from Jander:
I was wondering this as well...appears to have bounced off ltl and making a non dom traverse?
EDIT: Although it was a great spot for an ftt as price jumped after that...show us the way andy
Quote from JDAndy:
Firstly, I'm probably in the beginner stages of this like many of the rest. So...take anything with thr proverbial grain of salt.
With regard to the FTT, the annotation was a little late...hence what appears to be a great call.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Price, Volume and A/D Gaussians
Quote from PointOne:
Here's a schematic I put together on the P, V, A/D relationship following Jack's methodology. It's written from a long stock perspective but is equally applicable to futures:
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
General question here...Are all point 1s ftt's of some channel? or is it acceptable to have a point 1 w/o an ftt?
ES07H012907
My virtual trade:
9:40am -- 10:10am, 1426.75 to 1431.50 long pts +4.75
10:10am --10:10am, 1431.50 to 1427.00 short +4.50
11:15am-- 11:45am, 1430.25 to 1427.75 short +2.50
11:55am-- 13:00,A-D,1427.25 to 1432.50 long +5.25
13:05 -- 14:05,D-E,1432.00 to 1422.00 short +10.0
Jander - here's a link which will answer your question . For anyone coming
online with this lately, I'd highly recommend a total read of this journal from
day 1 - a large amount of very helpful ideas and discussions are already
available.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...212#post1315212
Dive right in - the water is GREAT!
Here is my ES chart for the day...
Re: ES07H012907
Quote from bucherwin:
My virtual trade:
9:40am -- 10:10am, 1426.75 to 1431.50 long pts +4.75
10:10am --10:10am, 1431.50 to 1427.00 short +4.50
11:15am-- 11:45am, 1430.25 to 1427.75 short +2.50
11:55am-- 13:00,A-D,1427.25 to 1432.50 long +5.25
13:05 -- 14:05,D-E,1432.00 to 1422.00 short +10.0
NMRX
I added NMRX to my final universe tonight.
EDIT: Scratch that. Insufficient volume.
Quote from JDAndy:
Here is my ES chart for the day...
Re: ES07H012907
Quote from bucherwin:
My virtual trade:
13:05 -- 14:05,D-E,1432.00 to 1422.00 short +10.0
Hi, trendy:
Thanks for pointing out the low was 1423.25. you're right.
I overstated a profit of 1.25 pts.
Hi,
I'm a rookie and want to say thanks to everyone involved. It’s a great
opportunity for me and other beginners to start understanding the market through
this method. I’m thankful to all of you who are kind enough to share your
knowledge with the rest of us.
I’m still far behind, reading old threads, but at the same time following this
one. This is my chart for this morning and I have to say this concept really
opened my eyes. As I followed the movement I understood what was going on and
spotted all turns as they were forming.
good lines and good annotations.
comments:
1. don't use candle. use a simple OHLC bar. Candle gives you too much "other"
info, which will distract you from the JH method. (we will go into further
detail in the coming weeks.)
2. put red and black in your volume. it helps you to read the gaussian.
Got a little sloppy during the afternoon grind.
ES07H013007
FYI,
I'll throw mine up when I get home. Keep in mind now, we have the whole FOMC
in action. When the ball starts rolling, on FOMC days, I only plot the RTL since
every move tends to be a forceful leg. In time, we will get to see and know why.
I see I forgot to put up yesterdays too...
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
A trendless go no where day. LOW Volume = LOW Volitility = LOW
RANGE = MORE RISK. Price really hugged the RTL this afternoon
with very small range ( distance between RTL and LTL ).
Chart Attached.
I thought it was a pretty nice day. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, I guess.
FWIW, I thought I'd post a ES daily snippet to show the longer term channel
that is currently being surfed.
I didn't have my workspace open yesterday but one of the first things I noticed
this morning was that yesterday pierced the longer-term RTL for ONE 5 min bar
and immediately moved back into the channel on the next bar. There were several
FBO's of this channel yesterday as well.
I don't recall when I drew in this longer-term channel (dark green) but it was
earlier in the month.
Ignore the "messy" thin lines when viewing this snippet. These are the TL's
drawn in the 5 min fractal.
Note to myself: update the last couple of traverses in the daily fractal...
Here's the daily fractal:
spooz
January Ends
As January draws to a close, I wanted to make sure everyone understands
several basic concepts before moving forward.
Resolution
Referring to 'level of detail,' beginners should focus on the 'Coarse' Levels -
or what I commonly refer to as 'The Forest.' Coarse level resolution has the
beginning trader focus on trading 'FTT to FTT' intraday. These are the major
trends we often see throughout the trading day. Following the FTT's which
present themselves at this level provides 4 to 8 trades each day. We refer to
these traders as 'FTT Level' traders. 'Sub FTT' Level traders look for FTT's
occurring within the 'Legs' of the trading day. 'Sub-Sub' FTT traders
look for FTT's within the Traverses (taped channels). See Attached 'Levels'
Chart Below.
Gaussians
Focusing on these repeatable Gaussian patterns seen time and time again permits
the transitioning trader to see how a retrace turns into a reversal. Not only
must one understand how a \/ - B2B or a \/ - R2R
allows a trader to anticipate market turns, but also, everyone needs to
understand how the Gaussian Patterns show the difference between Change
and Continuation. Remember, the system differentiates between
continuation and change. This subtle difference creates the needed mindset shift
required to 'see' the market for what it really is. A beginning trader must
understand Gaussian Volume Formations prior to moving forward with the
curriculum.
Sufficiency
Currently, our 'complete data set' results from viewing Price and Volume changes
within a context. Channel trend lines provide our context along with market
sentiment. An FTT marks the moment at which we see sentiment change. When
observing the input parameters (currently ES Price and Volume), we reach
conclusions based on complete data sets - meaning price and volume
- and not simply one alone. When we use complete data sets to reach a
conclusion, we say we have 'sufficient' information to proceed. we do not
seek additional data beyond this point. As we move forward and add additional
tools to obtain additional information, this concept becomes increasingly
important. In short, when we have enough data to reach a conclusion, we do
not seek additional data. Instead, we take action.
Time
Lastly, a beginning trader must understand the value of time and experience. If
you have reached this point in the Journal and have not practiced
locating the FTT's (using ES price and Volume only) for a minimum of 20
trading days, please do not continue reading past this point until you
have completed the 'January' portion of the syllabus. Failure to take the time
to build a proper foundation provides a recipe for certain failure. Allow
yourself the time needed to absorb the material. The number one mistake
beginning traders make (when learning a new system) is allowing their desire to
reach 'Expert Level' Status to override their common sense. Take the appropriate
time to prepare yourself at each level, and do not rush
the process.
---------------------------------------------------------
In a couple of days, I plan to introduce the February Portion of our curriculum.
At that time, expect to see a few examples which should clear up any confusion -
as to whether or not the YM leads the ES. It does. After I return home (I'm
still in Tucson at present), I plan to review the posts made over the last 2
weeks in an effort to get myself back up to speed.
Until then .....
Good Trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
P.S. To those of you who made it to Tucson this week, I hope you found the
information presented helpful to your understanding.
__________________
Levels
__________________
what about channels
Great post Spy Just one missing element you overlooked..... I know you meant
to list it but you happened to omit CHANNELS!!
Channels should be annotated on three levels.... now you got it, great we are
rolling.....
Regards,
EX
Re: what about channels
Quote from excav8tr:
great we are rolling.....
__________________
okay ...okay...
There are two guys dueling it out on laptops in our kitchen as I speak..........
LOL....
I have a question about a scenario from Tues Jan 29th. The chart is attached.
Based on the three pieces that I annotated (R\/R, #1, #2). I've concocted the
following scenario. Hopefully someone can comment on whether I have the right
thinking or am totally off.
I see the R\/R fully develop on the ES 5min at 1:00pm EST. At this point in
time, we want to get short (I assume). This is where I noted #1. After a full
retrace back to the RTL, we see a strong BO of the RTL. Pace is very fast after
this BO.
My question is, did the R\/R at point #1 not ONLY signal our short but ALSO tell
us that we would not get a bounce off the RTL (#2) but rather a BO of the RTL
and that we should hold at #2, catching the BO and profiting nicely?
(Sorry, R\/R is misannotated on the chart)
from spyder post right before your post
Quote from Spydertrader:
... a \/ - R2R allows a trader to anticipate market turns, ...
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
....
My question is, did the R/\R at point #1 not ONLY signal our short but ALSO tell us that we would not get a bounce off the RTL (#2) but rather a BO of the RTL and that we should hold at #2, catching the BO and profiting nicely? [/B]
Yeah, I read that and it got me thinking about this scenario and I hope that
Spyder might comment on whether this example is what he meant by that or not.
Quote from nkhoi:
from spyder post right before your post
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
I have a question about a scenario from Tues Jan 29th. The chart is attached.
Based on the three pieces that I annotated (R\/R, #1, #2). I've concocted the following scenario. Hopefully someone can comment on whether I have the right thinking or am totally off.
I see the R\/R fully develop on the ES 5min at 1:00pm EST. At this point in time, we want to get short (I assume). This is where I noted #1. After a full retrace back to the RTL, we see a strong BO of the RTL. Pace is very fast after this BO.
My question is, did the R\/R at point #1 not ONLY signal our short but ALSO tell us that we would not get a bounce off the RTL (#2) but rather a BO of the RTL and that we should hold at #2, catching the BO and profiting nicely?
(Sorry, R\/R is misannotated on the chart)
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Steve,
Your point 1 is actually an FTT of a channel which you do not have annotated. For this method to work it is critical that all pertinent channels be annotated on your chart. The red to red which confirms the new down trend happens right after the point 1.
today's chart
After having a tough time today, I just took time to do the debrief tonight
and dress up the chart. Here is my final draft. Of course, my skill level isn't
quite this good live during the day. Please post any comments that can help me
improve the process.
Sometimes the QT program I am working on drops off some of the volume gaussians
but most should be there.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
I agree that my chart isnt fully annotated the way it should be, I do realize
that #1 on the chart is an FTT of the carry over channel from the previous day
(the way I drew it at least, which is to say it may not be correct
).
Regardless though, I want to make sure my understanding of the situation that
unfolded is on the right track. The FTT (#1), in addition to the R\/R that forms
gives us our short position, then we get a retrace back to the RTL. Now, since
we get a BO of the RTL, we hold as we are already on the correct side of the
market. Prior to the BO, I dont see anything significant volume wise to be able
to "anticipate" that a break of the RTL would occur so I am hoping that the R\/R
in this case signalled this? Maybe its a case that would require medium and fine
analysis as well, and since we arent there yet, this question cannot be answered
yet?
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Prior to the BO, I dont see anything significant volume wise to be able to "anticipate" that a break of the RTL would occur so I am hoping that the R\/R in this case signalled this? Maybe its a case that would require medium and fine analysis as well, and since we arent there yet, this question cannot be answered yet?
Thanks
Quote from PointOne:
Hold until the next FTT.
Was there a FTT of your short channel prior to the BO? Just eyeballing your chart it looks like there were a couple of hitches in a row (a stall) which may have caused concern, but other than that the channel was being traversed flawlessly all the way to the BO and R2R.
Catching up...
ES 5M 01.29.07 chart...
2:20+ was an absolutely pain on the 5M (ie. considerable skill)...
Regards,
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
ES 01.30.07 5M chart...
Same story from Noon onward... FOMC effects
Regards,
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from bundlemaker:
Steve,
Your point 1 is actually an FTT of a channel which you do not have annotated. For this method to work it is critical that all pertinent channels be annotated on your chart. The red to red which confirms the new down trend happens right after the point 1.
The sequence is: FTT, decreasing red volume back to the right trend line, and increasing red volume as price break out downward beyond the right trend line. This is of course an idealize description, but with some effort it's pretty easy to see.
The ideal entry is the earliest possible ident of the FTT. Enter short when you think you have an FTT. What you will find is that by entering when you think you have an FTT, even if it wasn't (a flaw, a what wasn't that) you can more times than not salvage a small profit and then immediately get yourself back on the right side of the market as soon as you realize you erred.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Bundle,
Thanks for your very precise response, makes perfect sense to me!
Steve
Quote from bundlemaker:
Steve,
Your point 1 is actually an FTT of a channel which you do not have annotated. For this method to work it is critical that all pertinent channels be annotated on your chart. The red to red which confirms the new down trend happens right after the point 1.
The sequence is: FTT, decreasing red volume back to the right trend line, and increasing red volume as price break out downward beyond the right trend line. This is of course an idealize description, but with some effort it's pretty easy to see.
The ideal entry is the earliest possible ident of the FTT. Enter short when you think you have an FTT. What you will find is that by entering when you think you have an FTT, even if it wasn't (a flaw, a what wasn't that) you can more times than not salvage a small profit and then immediately get yourself back on the right side of the market as soon as you realize you erred.
Hope this helps.
Interested to see how the rest of you annotated the FOMC reaction.
Quote from JDAndy:
Interested to see how the rest of you annotated the FOMC reaction.
JDAndy,
Quote from JDAndy:
Interested to see how the rest of you annotated the FOMC reaction.
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Congrats on making it this far!
Before proceeding to the next item on our syllabus, if you feel you need to
review what has happened so far I encourage you to check out my compilation. Be
aware that it is not a shortcut, and as far as I know nothing major has been
left out (it is 147 pages). Print it, bind it, reread it, and stick it in a
three-ring binder on your bookshelf as a reference.
To quote Spyder,
Lastly, a beginning trader must understand the value of time and experience. If you have reached this point in the Journal and have not practiced locating the FTT's (using ES price and Volume only) for a minimum of 20 trading days, please do not continue reading past this point until you have completed the 'January' portion of the syllabus. Failure to take the time to build a proper foundation provides a recipe for certain failure. Allow yourself the time needed to absorb the material. The number one mistake beginning traders make (when learning a new system) is allowing their desire to reach 'Expert Level' Status to override their common sense. Take the appropriate time to prepare yourself at each level, and do not rush the process.
What a way to end the month... FOMC...
Here's my chart. The blue box was
atypical. Things don't ALWAYS go our way. Just the majority of the time...
LOL!!!
Regards,
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
ES07H013107
JDANDY, C99:
A simlar Diamond-Back too.
Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Quote from Pr0crast:
Enter ET/ftt_now as the username/password.
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal Vol. 1 PDF
I hope you find this useful, and if you have anything that could be added, or if something needs to be fixed, just shoot me a PM.
-Pr0crast [/B]
Catch Up
Spent the evening with the family after returning safely from Tucson earlier
in the day. I plan to catch up on Email / PM / IM and posts by tomorrow evening,
and plan to have the YM information up sometime tomorrow during the trading day.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Couple quickies:
Pr0crast - I, too, wish to say "job well done" for your excellent compilation!
Thank you!
Spyder - welcome back! We're all chompin' at the bit here ...
Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Quote from Pr0crast:
Congrats on making it this far!
Before proceeding to the next item on our syllabus, if you feel you need to review what has happened so far I encourage you to check out my compilation. Be aware that it is not a shortcut, and as far as I know nothing major has been left out (it is 147 pages). Print it, bind it, reread it, and stick it in a three-ring binder on your bookshelf as a reference.
To quote Spyder,
Enter ET/ftt_now as the username/password.
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal Vol. 1 PDF
I hope you find this useful, and if you have anything that could be added, or if something needs to be fixed, just shoot me a PM.
-Pr0crast
other than one link from b9foot broken, the doc is a good read, especially
the last page, thank
Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Quote from Pr0crast:
...
To quote Spyder,
Time
Lastly, a beginning trader must understand the value of time and experience. If you have reached this point in the Journal and have not practiced locating the FTT's (using ES price and Volume only) for a minimum of 20 trading days, please do not continue reading past this point until you have completed the 'January' portion of the syllabus. Failure to take the time to build a proper foundation provides a recipe for certain failure. Allow yourself the time needed to absorb the material. The number one mistake beginning traders make (when learning a new system) is allowing their desire to reach 'Expert Level' Status to override their common sense. Take the appropriate time to prepare yourself at each level, and do not rush the process.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from nkhoi:
other than one link from b9foot broken, the doc is a good read, especially the last page, thank
ET/ftt_now
Enter ET/ftt_now as the username/password.
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal Vol. 1 PDF
I hope you find this useful, and if you have anything that could be added, or if
something needs to be fixed, just shoot me a PM.
-Pr0crast
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks for the hard work. I'm unable to access the pdf file with the above
username/password. I appreciate, others have been successful accessing it. I
have tried on 2 different computers but still no luck.
callmate, sign on to yahoo and I will send it to you that way.
-Pr0crast
Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Quote from Pr0crast:
Congrats on making it this far!
Before proceeding to the next item on our syllabus, if Vol. 1 PDF[/url]
I hope you find this useful, and if you have anything that could be added, or if something needs to be fixed, just shoot me a PM.
-Pr0crast
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from Pr0crast:
callmate, sign on to yahoo and I will send it to you that way.
-Pr0crast
Re: Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Quote from makosgu:
And to this I would add one other point. Alas I would add...
Success
As a trader, it is important to experience success at each and every level. Having a successful foundation to build upon enables the trader to have a point of reference. BEing successful is a dollars and cents measure. Moving forward beyond this point without establishing success can ultimately lead a trader to frustration, as evidenced by many previous futures threads. Frustration comes about as a result of repeatedly failing to experience success. A frustrated beginner furthur digs themself into a hole by proceding to the next level with the belief that the acquisition of additional tools will complete what they percieve to be an incomplete toolset that is not yielding any success. P, V, and Channels are a complete toolset. The addition of the upcoming tools build upon the PV/Channel foundation. At each stage, it is imperative to find a sufficient degree of success.
Regards,
MAK
Re: Re: Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Quote from Bearbelly:
Do I read this to mean you should be making money with the information that has been provided in the January section before trying to add anything else? In another thread Jack chastised me for just using "parts" of his method.
Re: Re: Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Quote from Bearbelly:
In another thread Jack chastised me for just using "parts" of his method.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Quote from PointOne:
Do you really not understand the difference?
Think of the method as a series of containers. We are in the outermost container at the moment. No part is missing, finer detail has yet to be revealed that's all. There are, I suspect, 6 or 7 more containers.
I'm glad you brought this up, the blue box illustration. Is it possible that
the Chicago PMI # that was released at 9:45 caused this price action? I think a
9:45 economic release is also pretty atypical.
Quote from makosgu:
What a way to end the month... FOMC...
Regards,
MAK
FTT to FTT clarification
After reviewing the journal so far, I have a question regarding the basic
rule “FTT to FTT reverse”. I have previously assumed that the only way to get
from one FTT to the next would be via a newly formed channel, with new points 1,
2, and 3, its associated traverses, and then the FTT that signals the end of the
current channel and the beginning of the next..
However, I notice on the attached chart (posted 12-31-06) that after the orange
FTT you annotate an FTT for an earlier green channel, thus giving us a direct
step from one FTT to the next, whereupon you annotate a signal to reverse.
Am I correct in thinking that the rule “FTT to FTT” refers to this situation of
a direct step, rather than an FTT that signifies the ending of the most recently
formed channel?
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
I'm glad you brought this up, the blue box illustration. Is it possible that the Chicago PMI # that was released at 9:45 caused this price action? I think a 9:45 economic release is also pretty atypical.
__________________
As always, very clearly explained. Thanks!
Quote from Spydertrader:
Although Volume on my own charts appears a little different than the attached example shown by Mak, I do not view the price action as all that atypical. Understanding that we all see things differently, decreasing red volume combined with decreasing price tells me to expect the trend to change (See Jokari Window). While we do not yet know for sure how or when our larger (grey) channel plans to materialize (in fact, we do not even know it exists in the normal sense), we can expect a coming change in trend by understanding how price first must retrace (decreasing red in this example) before it can reverse. Since we do not see the anticipated increasing red volume (in fact volume turns black), we can know for sure we simply experienced a retrace (non-dominant volume) of an uptrend. Interestingly, we do not even need to know the parameters of the uptrend to know the clue provided by decreasing red volume. We simply need to have our eyes focused on the correct 'resolution' level. For beginning traders that resolution is coarse.
I hope the above explanation provided some clarity for you without mucking up the water further.
- Spydertrader
Re: FTT to FTT clarification
Quote from dkm:
Am I correct in thinking that the rule “FTT to FTT” refers to this situation of a direct step, rather than an FTT that signifies the ending of the most recently formed channel?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Quote from Bearbelly:
Do I read this to mean you should be making money with the information that has been provided in the January section before trying to add anything else? In another thread Jack chastised me for just using "parts" of his method.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: Re: Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal VOL 1
Quote from makosgu:
And to this I would add one other point. Alas I would add...
Success
As a trader, it is important to experience success at each and every level.
Adding the YM
The YM leads the ES
- Jack Hershey
The above often cited phrase has generated significant controversy over the
years. One need look no further than the library of work posted by Jack (on ET
or USENET) to find many examples. As one who witnessed countless occasions where
the YM diverged both in direction and pace from the ES, I once failed to see the
logic behind Jack's assertion. However, my failure to comprehend stemmed from my
own self created obstacles. You see, I had incorrectly interpreted the above
quoted statement and added my own modifier.
Jack did not say, "The YM always leads the ES on every tick."
Notice, by running the phrase through my own mental filter, I sent myself
down the wrong path. I, in effect, created my own hindrance to success.
Fortunately, I figured out the error of my ways.
Now, we can spend our time looking for examples where the YM fails to
lead the ES, but really, how does that help a trader make money? Instead, by
focusing on the FTT, we can use the YM to provide an advance warning of an FTT
formation allowing us to nail the ES FTT on the exact bar on which it forms.
First we need a measurement of Volume Pace. Similar to the fashion in which we
added ES Volume lines, add the same lines to the YM at the following levels:
1200 High
600 Medium
400 Low
200 DU
I use 250 for my YM DU level, but the above Volume levels Jack has recommended.
Now that we have our metric for evaluating Pace, we simply annotate the YM in
the same fashion as we do the ES - in an effort to locate the FTT's slightly
ahead of time. Remember, we want to keep both the ES and the YM on the
same resolution. When you annotate, be sure to focus your eyes on the
'bigger picture' (Forest) with respect to the YM. otherwise, you will think you
see an FTT everywhere you look (bacteria, on the leaf, on the limb, of the tree,
in the forest).
Attached, please note an example of the YM leading the ES on an FTT. The charts
come from December 18, 2006 - if memory serves.
Briefly:
On the YM, the 13:46 bar Opens at 13:46 and Closes at 13:48 - surely we all
agree. On the ES, the 13:45 bar Opens at 13:45 and Closes at 13:50 - surely we
all agree.
And now,
Please see, on the attached chart, how an FTT on the YM signals (a minimum of)
two full minutes in advance of an FTT on the ES, and thus, provides a
short signal. Notice too, only two tics separate the high and the close
of the 13:45 ES bar.
At the end of today, review each FTT on the ES and see for yourself how the YM
provided you an advance warning by 'matching up' the correct time frames. Can
you see how the YM gives out its signals in advance? Can you also see how the YM
also provides signals which turn out to be Hitches, Dips or Stalls on the ES?
You should then also see how staying on the 'Big picture' avoids any concern
about these 'flaws' creating a problem. We simply hold right through them.
I'll have more later on using the YM, but I wanted to begin with the above as a
"first pass." As always, if the above post creates more questions than it
answers, please feel free to post them here.
- Spydertrader
Edit: Ignore the indicators on the above charts.
As you know, we no longer have them on the ES and the YM.
__________________
Hope you had a good trip
I suppose you were one of the "There are two guys dueling it out on laptops
in our kitchen as I speak..........
In a nutshell, you are saying that more often than not we should be able to see
an FTT forming on ym in advance of ES, thus giving us about 2 minutes warning.
Good trading to all.
Firstly, a brief but sincere thx, for the effort put in here to teach.
And what lessons !
I've done my best to follow along so far..
My attached chart shows one of the difficulties I have, namely around the last
set of BO and FBO's.
The white horizontal lines could only be drawn late on in this sideways move, so
in real time I was losing the plot a bit as to what was a real BO ...perhaps my
main channels are wrong ?
Any help appreciated..
And again my sincere thx...
P.S May I take the liberty of a request..?
would it be an idea to start each month/part of the lesson as a new thread...?
Channels
Quote from FilterTip:
Any help appreciated..
__________________
Re: Hope you had a good trip
Quote from callmate:
I suppose you were one of the "There are two guys dueling it out on laptops in our kitchen as I speak..........
Quote from callmate:
In a nutshell, you are saying that more often than not we should be able to see an FTT forming on ym in advance of ES, thus giving us about 2 minutes warning.
__________________
Quote from FilterTip:
..The white horizontal lines could only be drawn late on in this sideways move, so in real time I was losing the plot a bit as to what was a real BO ...perhaps my main channels are wrong ?
...?
Spydertrader, thx for reply.
Seems I'm trying too hard.
Attached chart is a better view..?
I'm correct in establishing the main channel (green) from pt's 1,2, and 3. it
seems.
nkhoi, thx, I've included the gaussians...u r right.
Quote from FilterTip:
Attached chart is a better view..?
__________________
ES 5min 1 Feb 07
Notes 01 Feb 07
2m YM, YM found support on previous channel (green) for quite a while.
Today's ES Chart
Note how I purposefully left out the 'fine' annotations early in the day. I
could have left out the medium level annotations as well, but I think many have
already started to transition back and forth between medium and coarse
resolution. Be sure to compare the YM chart to the ES chart where you see an
FTT. Hopefully, doing so will provide an 'Aha!' moment or two.
- Spydertrader
__________________
My real time annotated chart. The decision to hold or fold around
1141 was not very clear to me. So around 1145 I folded and went flat. See chart
comment for reasoning.
The rising step ladder type day was very clear on the 2 minute Echart today.
I see one; YM ftt at 11:24 and ES ftt at 11:25
Re: Re: Hope you had a good trip
Quote from Spydertrader:
What I am saying to you is The YM leads the ES when it matters - at sentiment change. Since our methodology involves recognizing the market as it transitions from continuation to change status, The YM provides an early warning for the ES.
- Spydertrader
my es5 for today...
2 min ym...
And this is a 60 min ES chart to show where the blue and dark gray trendlines
are coming from on the 5min ES. ignore the volume- I have it clipped at 40k for
the 5 min chart and ignore the labels like FTT- they get moved a little when I
scrunch my chats up. Important thing on this chart are the longer term
trendlines. Interesting how we are bumping up against a confluence of longer
term LTL's here.
I'll leave this one in link form because the pic is a little bigger.
Re: Re: Re: Hope you had a good trip
Quote from ivob:
If you see an FTT forming on the ES but not on the YM. Will you trust it/trade it? So is a genuine FTT on the ES always preceeded by an FTT on the YM?
__________________
Re: Re: Hope you had a good trip
Quote from Spydertrader:
Less a duel than a laughfest, but yes, I attended.
What I am saying to you is The YM leads the ES when it matters - at sentiment change. Since our methodology involves recognizing the market as it transitions from continuation to change status, The YM provides an early warning for the ES.
- Spydertrader
FWIW, here's a snippet from today that shows a couple of FTT's on the YM and
ES side-by-side.
spooz
ES07020107
To ERIC:
Thanks for your time & efforts to edit the Vol 1 of Futures Trading Journal and
made it available for us to download.
To Spyder:
2min YM leads ES 5min movement is logical. What about the 2min ES, Is it also
predictable for ES 5min trending.
Thanks
Re: ES07020107
Quote from bucherwin:
2min YM leads ES 5min movement is logical. What about the 2min ES, Is it also predictable for ES 5min trending.
__________________
YM2min leads
spyder:
Pls advise me at your spare time about today's charts, when, exactly, do you see
the YM2min leads ES 5min.
I compare YM2min to ES2min and ES5min charts, and have trouble to pinpoint the
time that 2min of YM leads.
I only see the channels of ES5min are little sluggish behind YM2min and not much
different from ES2min.
Thanks.
YM2min leads
Spyder:
Pls check the YM07H 020107 5-minute chart
YM 07H 020107 2min
Spyder:
Sorry for the typo , the YM chart is 2min one not 5min.
thanks.
Re: YM2min leads
Quote from bucherwin:
Pls advise me at your spare time about today's charts, when, exactly, do you see the YM2min leads ES 5min.
Quote from bucherwin:
I compare YM2min to ES2min and ES5min charts, and have trouble to pinpoint the time that 2min of YM leads.
Quote from bucherwin:
I only see the channels of ES5min are little sluggish behind YM2min and not much different from ES2min.
__________________
Re: YM2min leads
Quote from bucherwin:
spyder:
Pls advise me at your spare time about today's charts, when, exactly, do you see the YM2min leads ES 5min.
...Thanks.
Today's ES Chart
Note the PV relationships within the Highlighted Areas of the chart. Also,
note the afternoon breakout from CCC.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Well trying to stay off the forest floor..!
Spydertrader..
The pink A and B on my chart is where I am confused, compared to your equivalent
channels. Especially the second (B) channel.
I'm unclear as to how you determined your point 2 on your first green channel
and your point 3 on the orange channel later in the day..?
I seem to have more difficulty establishing the main channels,but am able to see
the smaller (tapes?) . I presume you need the channel to draw the tape ! so it
seems a bit odd to me..
It's establishing the main channel that will keep me on the beginners resolution
?
Many thx...
Appologies, having problems uploading chart..
Quote from FilterTip:
The pink A and B on my chart is where I am confused, compared to your equivalent channels. Especially the second (B) channel.
Quote from FilterTip:
I'm unclear as to how you determined your point 2 on your first green channel and your point 3 on the orange channel later in the day..?
Quote from FilterTip:
I seem to have more difficulty establishing the main channels,but am able to see the smaller (tapes?) . I presume you need the channel to draw the tape ! so it seems a bit odd to me..
Quote from FilterTip:
It's establishing the main channel that will keep me on the beginners resolution ?
__________________
ES07H020207
Thanks, Spyder, lots to learn from you.
FilterTip,
Quote from FilterTip:
...
I seem to have more difficulty establishing the main channels,but am able to see the smaller (tapes?) .
...
) that
might help. Maybe others can chime in as well. I for one would be interested in
hearing them...
qchart question: how do you color the bar? when I click on barchart, all I get is mono color black.
Quote from spooz_trader1:
FilterTip,
You have to find a way for the main channels to "appear" to you as they form. I'm not sure I can describe how I do it (or how I see them).
That said, I know a few "tricks" that were mentioned to me (in other words, I can't take credit for them
0. As Spyder says, take a step back from your monitor. This is one way to "zoom out".
1. Although I personally draw the tapes, maybe experiment with not drawing them for a while to see if it's easier to spot the wider channels. If you do draw the tapes, you have to find a way to "zoom out" on a consistent basis. I'm working on this everyday.
2. Use 2 seperate charts. One that includes the tapes, and one that focuses on the wider channels.
Also, I'm not sure if this will be helpful or not but you might want to look at some longer-term fractals as well. Tapes in a 30 min, 60 min, daily, etc fractal will automatically be wider than a tape in the 5 min fractal. Right? C99 posted a 60 min chart yesterday. Try drawing some tapes & channels on the longer-term fractals and then zoom in to the 5 min to see what they look like. The only assumption here is that your charting software lets you switch back and forth between fractals with no loss of [channel] precision.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...?postid=1347008
And of course, practice. I've drawn a ton of channels since I came across this stuff last Fall.
Anyway, I hope this helps.
spooz
My ES for the day. The vertical bars are my annotations for the clear (i.e. non-split) volume surges, which help me define my channels.
Quote from nkhoi:
qchart question: how do you color the bar? when I click on barchart, all I get is mono color black.
Spydertrader...thx for replies..
spooz...thx for your suggestions.
There are, it seems, elements of "artistry" and "vision" (channels)..and
"precision" and "technicals".(tapes).
Put another way, anyone can drive a car if the boundaries of the road are not
defined.
Define the coarse and rally driving through a forest becomes an art, only made
possible though, with full knowledge of the technicals.
As you say, I'll look to "slow down" to the larger time frames as and when the
road is less defined. thx.
Your suggestion to use 2 charts, one for ONLY channels the other for my forest
floor rumidges..instinctively feels right, I'll try that Monday.
Perhaps too many tapes, with all the lines on the charts are obscuring and or
suggesting too much at this point.
The attached chart shows the alternative point 2 and 3 (aqua lines) that i am
confused about wrt point 2 (spydertraders green channel) and point 3
(spydertraders orange channel).
Are there "technicals" that I'm missing that determine which bar to use as
points 2 and 3 ?
Well I think I've almost used up my entire years posting quota.
Thx again for the help and patience being offered.
PS the green and ed channels are my r/t annotations, the aqua lines are the
channels "alternatives " that I,m unclear as to how to chose, rather than the
choice i made at the time.
ProCrast..thx for your reply, and thx for the e-book you put together.
Our charts for today, are very similar. AND to spydertraders.!!
I know I'm getting a lot of this, and that to quite a large degree it's
subjective..
ie ...even though some of my FTT ,s etc where at slightly different times to
spydertraders (and others) many of the trades would still have yielded a small
profit or a wash at worst.
It's also therefor a question of how one responds to what the market is doing
(telling) us in this present moment.
But I do want to be as sure as is possible that my differences are not down to
some technical aspect of this methodology that I haven't mastered yet..
FT
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Maybe others can chime in as well. I for one would be interested in hearing them...
spooz
following continual re-reading...
Dismiss, don't even concider my reference to "subjectivity" ,
MAKS post from another thread explains things... (who was I kidding..? only
myself !!)
"Personal, I do not like to SUBJECTIVELY INTERPRET pictures especially wrt
trading. My trading does not incorporate interpretations because there is only
one question. How much is this picture worth? Looks like an FTP or IT IS an
FTP??? IT IS an FTP, that picture is worth alot! Ok, I am in FTP modus. Looks
like an FTP, what should I do... Well, I know what to do when IT IS an FTP so
should I treat what looks like an FTP as if it were an FTP??? Personally, I do
not like to include these type of interpretive pictures. As a result of not
knowing the picture I sideline and then debrief why I didn't recognize the
picture! For me, knowing what the picture is allows me to take the necessary
actions. As a result, there are no surprises.
In kindergarten, we learned our alphabet using pictures. We were presented a
picture of a particular letter and our brains made a connection between the
picture and the letter. There is no confusion in whether the letter "A" looked
like a letter "B". After all the letters were connected to pictures, we began
creating pictures of clusters of letters (ie. pictures of words).... clusters of
words for speed readers (ie sentences)... clusters of key words...etc...
The kinda pictures lead to shoulda woulda coulda actions. Personally, I have
gone to great lengths to produce tools that are crisp. It is FAST pace not a
kinda looks like a FAST pace. It is STRetching! There are no maybe's about it
when I data gather. Maybe lead to Monday morning quarterbacking. If the picture
of now is unknown, my action for that scenario is very simply SIDELINE. In other
words, I know what I am supposed to do when I see X, therefore if I don't know
X, surely I cannot know what to do... Who am I kidding...
Some traders like to use interpretive stuff and I am sure they have their
reasons... As long as I can remember, I cannot remember ever being uncertain
whether the letter "A" was actually the letter "B". Monet was arguably gifted.
What is certain about traders is that there are losers and winners. That picture
is clear. Trades occur at a price and time. That is clear. Collections of trades
have a direction. A pair of collections from correlated instruments will have a
single leading collection... These pictures are very clear for me..."
MAK!
FilterTip
"every day I wake up and realize I know nothing and then I smile "
procrast
I do not agree with your 1300 comment on your Feb 2 chart about b^b being a LTL
breaker. I think a b^R would be more of a LTL signal that the top may be reached
and a new STL MAY be starting.
A b^b in my interpretation during a LTL only signifies that the volume surge
completed and a new volume surge is taking place pushing prices higher.
8833:
As I read your post I think there is some confusion with nomenclature.
1) I think you are confusing "/\" with "\/" as used by Procrast.
/\ = rising, then falling
\/ = falling, then rising
if you look at his chart in this context does it make sense?
2) when you say "LTL" I think you mean "long trend channel", rather than "Left
Trend Line" as it is used by Mak and others.
3) So in a long trend channel b/\b would mean a shift has occurred from
increasing black volume to decreasing black volume. Per the Jokari window this
means expect change which is what Procrast was saying around 13:00 on his chart.
4) IMO this chart has also shown an excellent example of another issue. Look at
the 13:15, 13:20 and 13:25 ES bars and note that each closed successively lower
yet is colored black.
Shouldn't black price bars = rising price within our nomenclature?
This is due to QCharts coding bar colors from open to close, rather than close
to close.
I've been quietly following the thread off and on this week, while preparing
for a 1 month trip away from the US and the Internet. Haven't had time to post,
but I did continue to draw channels, gaussians, and to annotate for 3 of the
days.
I'll be playing catch up big time when I return. But thanks to PrOcrast and his
wonderful pdf of month one, I should come back with a better understanding of ES
Chart: Price, Volume, Channels, and the FTT!
Thanks to everyone for maintaining such a constructive atmosphere here. And
thanks to the experts for their dedication and generosity. See you in March!
ES chart 2 Feb 07 attached
Spyder:
A question regarding channels that do not start with an FTT.
We occasionally get a situation where point 1 of a new channel will be on the
left trend line of the old channel. This is often the case after a period of
volatility expansion (see point X on attached chart). In this situation, am I
correct in thinking that all we have in the toolset at present to identify the
appearance of the new channel would be the B2B guassian switch?
Point One on the LTL
Quote from dkm:
A question regarding channels that do not start with an FTT: Am I correct in thinking that all we have in the toolset at present to identify the appearance of the new channel would be the B2B guassian switch?
__________________
Quote from dkm:
ES chart 2 Feb 07 attached
Spyder:
A question regarding channels that do not start with an FTT.
We occasionally get a situation where point 1 of a new channel will be on the left trend line of the old channel. This is often the case after a period of volatility expansion (see point X on attached chart). In this situation, am I correct in thinking that all we have in the toolset at present to identify the appearance of the new channel would be the B2B guassian switch?
R/R
When I look at the chart in the Volume context that you explained I understand
prOcrast chart better. There is definitely a FTT and from your explanation I see
how it relates to the Jokari diagram.
I guess am a little biased here and would rather see higher absolute volume with
a long tail ( long tail = Bar close in bottom
third of Bar price range) to be convinced of the FTT. Around lunch time, due to
the lack of volume, a small meanlingless price hiccup is quite likely. That's
how I viewed the 1300 bar. But again there was definitely a FTT.
The above comments is based on my bias and may not be relevent here.
Are FTT's alway FTT's ? Spyder would probably say yes. Possibly I have some
preconceived ideas that are not true.
I was using LTL = Long Trend (upward sloping ). STL = Short Trend ( downward
sloping )
RTL= Right Trend Line, LTL = Left Trend Line
Is an FTT always an FTT?
Quote from 8833broc:
Are FTT's alway FTT's ? Spyder would probably say yes. Possibly I have some preconceived ideas that are not true.
__________________
Gentleman,
I’ve spent a long time trying to find this specific thread. The only reference I
had was a print-out of a table from:
www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1321447
Can anyone provide the original location so I can read the accompanying text? Or
perhaps someone could explain how the figures were determined/how the table was
constructed.
Then I all I have to do is read 142 pages (and Cut, Paste) to catch up.
Grant.
Fwiw Ive found it pretty handy to set the 2min YM directly above the 5 ES
scaled to each other.
Question on Post links
Quote from Grant:
Can anyone provide the original location so I can read the accompanying text? Or perhaps someone could explain how the figures were determined/how the table was constructed.
__________________
SpyderTrader,
That's it. Thank you.
So that's 142 pages this thread plus 455 on the other thread.
Grant.
Quote from Grant:
So that's 142 pages this thread plus 455 on the other thread.
) ....
Quote from Spydertrader:
If you haven’t read any of the previous Hershey Futures Threads, don’t worry. You can quickly catch up. In an effort to get yourself “up to speed” (so to speak), review the end of Journal Two beginning with This Post.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
... The FTT provides the signal for sentiment change. It does so in any market - on any time frame (provided sufficient liquidity exists). By focusing on the differences between continuation and change each of the tools we use provides the exact input (at the exact time) needed for correct decision making and (more importantly) timely action. Jack calls this input 'complete data sets.' ...
Spydertrader,
That's less onerous. Thanks for your help.
Grant.
Quote from FilterTip:
[BIf the picture of now is unknown, my action for that scenario is very simply SIDELINE.
[/B]
Ivob
You have attributed that quote to me, but it was from a post made by MAK that I
referred to. That in it's self is not important but the message is..and thx for
reminding me.
I'll treat it as serendipity doing it's thing.
I'm responding to this in the context of this new methodology and my limited
understanding of it so far.
I am clear that FTT's mark the spot..!
BUT FTT's are only relative to the channel that has been identified.
An incorrectly identified channel will result in an incorrect FTT (or an FTT
that isn't really an FTT) .
ANd yes, I understand the rules state that we reverse from FTT to FTT and use
the incorrectly identified FTT to put us back on the right side of the market as
soon as we see it wasn't an FTT.
(immediately reverse).
I'm just getting a bit stuck on identifying Point 3, which with it, creates the
formation of the channel.
Forgive my reiteration of all this. I'm late to the party here and we are aleady
on to the YM comparison leading thing..
It's just my way of getting this out so I can gather it all back in again but
with some order ..a kind of therapy I suppose....and even as I type I'm thinking
"well don't do anything until you can place point 3 and draw the channel ", BUT
I do this... for what can very possibly be a point 3 at the time.... only to see
the market move out of context of the channel I have drawn (and this is not
immediate so there is a period of viewing market action and "seeing FTT's in the
context of a channel that I don't YET see as incorrect !!)).
ANd there's Spydertrader (and others) taking a deep sigh ready to respond with
"practice and just give it time and you will see them"..
I know I know....
Having said all this I can refer back to my charts and see the annotations that
did correctly identify channels and FTT's..
I just wish it didn't feel quite so much like luck..
2, questions if I may..
1. I'm on European time GMT, as my trading starts on the DAX I tend to have my
charts for US start at around 13.00 GMT (that's 1 .5 hours before the official
open. Is it a necessity for this methodology to have the US charts start at
exactly 14.30 GMT
( 9.30 EST) with regard overnight channels ?
2. Is it just me or do point 3's seem even harder to identify in an upwards
move....?
JDAndy..Thx for your reply. As spooz trader has also suggested, I will use a
5min chart just for coarse channel. I'm sure it will help.
I use Esignal so not using the Mikeytrades volume stack..I use MarketDelta
software to help with volume interpretation..
Let's see waht Monday brings..
Thx
Best to all
FilterTip
Perhaps Spydertrader's chart from Friday 20.02.07 can show where I am
confussed..
THe green channel from about 11.45.
1. How and why was point 2 established.?
2. Why was a new point 1 and L to Right channel not started at the Green/Blue
FTT..? and again at the second blue FTT?
3. Why/how chose point 3 at that bar..?
The Orange channel from about 14.30...
1. Why was point 1 selected there..?
2.How could point 2 be drawn there and thus establish the orange FTT and new
green point 1 ..it is drawn parallel to the right (upper) orange line even
though that upper line could not have been drawn until the point 3 arrived..?
3. Why/how chose tht bar as point 3, whynot any of the two blck bars either side
of the first Orange FTT..?
This then was able to establish the last green channel and keep this on the
right side of the move..however shallow it turned out to be..which I did not see
nor the orange channel on my chart for that day..
Really trying to understand this .. thx
FilterTip
Re: Is an FTT always an FTT?
Fantastic post! Great analogy.
Quote from Spydertrader:
It's driving on an expressway through Texas at night with nothing on the road for miles and miles (continuation) when suddenly a coyote runs onto the road (change).
...
If by my analogy above, I have added confusion, rather than, provide clarity, please let me know, and I will attempt to provide another example.
Good Journey to you all.
- Spydertrader
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
I appreciate very much what Spy and Mak are trying to do here. I know and
understand how annoying it must be when people constantly ask for documentation
to see your daily figures and then bash when they dont get what they want.
What would be nice to see is if Mak and Spy could, when they post their
screenshot of the day also add, "today my gross profits were $1400 or $550" or
whatever. No need to see an account statements, I think everyone who follows
this thread closely would believe either of these fellows. EOD P&L is merely a
scorecard for how the day went. It would just be nice for those following the
thread to see how its teachers are doing while we are all following in realtime.
Quote from Cocaine:
..What would be nice to see is if Mak...
Quote from Cocaine:
..how annoying it must be when people constantly ask for documentation to see your daily figures...
Like I said, I'm not asking for "proof" but rather just a comment by Mak or
Spy after a trading session. I think it might inspire some guys. Nothing wrong
with providing inspiration Nkhoi, would you agree?
Quote from nkhoi:
he did http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...=&postid=829152
1. How and why was point 2 established.?
2. Why was a new point 1 and L to Right channel not started at the Green/Blue FTT..? and again at the second blue FTT?
3. Why/how chose point 3 at that bar..?
The Orange channel from about 14.30...
1. Why was point 1 selected there..?
2.How could point 2 be drawn there and thus establish the orange FTT and new green point 1 ..it is drawn parallel to the right (upper) orange line even though that upper line could not have been drawn until the point 3 arrived..?
3. Why/how chose tht bar as point 3, whynot any of the two blck bars either side of the first Orange FTT..?
Quote from Cocaine:
Like I said, I'm not asking for "proof" but rather just a comment by Mak or Spy after a trading session. I think it might inspire some guys. Nothing wrong with providing inspiration Nkhoi, would you agree?
You will do much better here if
you are a self-motivator.
PrOcrast, this is my post from a little earlier.
Quote from Cocaine:
I appreciate very much what Spy and Mak are trying to do here. I know and understand how annoying it must be when people constantly ask for documentation to see your daily figures and then bash when they dont get what they want.
What would be nice to see is if Mak and Spy could, when they post their screenshot of the day also add, "today my gross profits were $1400 or $550" or whatever. No need to see an account statements, I think everyone who follows this thread closely would believe either of these fellows. EOD P&L is merely a scorecard for how the day went. It would just be nice for those following the thread to see how its teachers are doing while we are all following in realtime.
Quote from Cocaine:
It would just be nice for those following the thread to see how its teachers are doing while we are all following in realtime.
Procrast
Thx for your feedback.
apologies for the terminology..
1. How and why was point 2 established.?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Your first pt.2 was at 11:40 or so, and then there was a volatility expansion at
12:10 or so, giving you a new pt. 2. I'm not sure how else to explain why this
is a point two...? Maybe this will help, from I think one of Spyder's posts in
this journal on January 2nd:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think you are looking at the down red channel. I see the expansions there..I'm
referring to the next green up channel..
and the green point 2 just after the 2nd CCC.
If you see my chart attached below I have an up green channel. It's starts at
about 16:30 on my chart time frame..
the green is what I annotated real time..The two AQUA lines are alternatives to
wait for point 3..
i just want to understand why spydertrader had his right line of his up channel
(green on his chart) at the 2nd of my AQUA lines ( the one furthest to the
right)..?
Hope I'm explaining myself here..
==========================================
2. Why was a new point 1 and L to Right channel not started at the Green/Blue
FTT..? and again at the second blue FTT?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pay attention to volume levels. Channels are pretty much meaningless when volume
is in dry up. If your gas tank is empty, pressing on the gas pedal isn't going
to get you to your destination. Furthermore, it will do you some good to go back
to the beginning and review the proper terminology. I have no idea what you mean
by "L to Right channel." All channels go from left to right, unless you have a
time machine.
============================================
THx , I understand re: Volume here
but thought that a new channel was always started from an FTT. AS there were 2
on Spydertraders up green channel ( one at point 2 a blue FTT) and the (double)
green and blue FTT after point 2.
My thought's were ahead of me and i meant a right to Left down channel ought to
have started from either of those FTT's in the green channel.
==========================================
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. Why/how chose point 3 at that bar..?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bar? Don't know what you are asking.
==========================================
THe green point 3,(with the blue FBO) reiterating my question about why chose
that bar to have the point 3 and not the other (first)AQUA line on my chart. or
indeed the actual green channel that I annotated in real time.?
==========================================
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Orange channel from about 14.30...
1. Why was point 1 selected there..?
2.How could point 2 be drawn there and thus establish the orange FTT and new
green point 1 ..it is drawn parallel to the right (upper) orange line even
though that upper line could not have been drawn until the point 3 arrived..?
3. Why/how chose that bar as point 3, why not any of the two black bars either
side of the first Orange FTT..?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Because that is when the CCC ended and the market's new sentiment became
clear.
2. I see why you are confused here. It looks to me like the orange FTT was drawn
in hindsight, because you are right-- it would not have been orange if drawn in
real time. Personally, the orange channel looks invalid/arbitrary to me, b/c I
can't see the P/V basis for it. If I drew the chart, the orange channel's point
3 would be at the end of the retrace, when the black bar kisses the blue 20SMA
line. And then the market changes sentiment on the next bar where that huge
spike and FTT is, thus marking the beginning (point 1) of the green channel. If
you look at my chart that I posted earlier you can see what I mean.
=========================================
I see..regards the ending of CCC..and Spydertrader did mention that in his reply
a few post ago..sorry for the repetition..
Your answer to no.2 above reflect my thoughts here..
btw..I wasn't suggesting at all that the orange channel was drawn in
hindsight..just the way I explained it to understand..
When someone is exemplifying what I perceive as mastery, which is rare in life,
I have tried to duplicate that level of mastery through study. If I was unable
to offer anything more, then at the least I would have attained a new level of
mastery myself. If I found that I intern was able to add anything, all well and
good, but I would never know either way unless I first recognized and then
studied to learn.
Many thx ProCrast..I will review things again and again..I just finished reading
4 entire threads when I posted before, so forgive the repetition when it occurs
, there is much to learn, I know little.
You have helped.
I shall crawl away under my leaf down here on the forest floor now and get some
sleep, only 4 hours till eurex opens..
FilterTip
"every day I wake up and realize I know nothing and then I smile "
Quote from PointOne:
Either you can see the potential of this approach or you can't - it has to come from within. If you're not inspired already then you are missing something fundamental. The type who needs proof from outside sources is unlikely to be the type to succeed.
...
ProCrast.
I forget to say, it seems a vital aspect of starting the next day is getting
synced up properly and early, and that is best done from the carry over from
previous day..hence my desire to understand the last phase of previous day (and
every day going forward from here)...my channels would have given me different
refence points for this morning, compared to spydertrader,s...
all the best
FilterTip
"every day I wake up and realize I know nothing and then I smile "
Quote from FilterTip:
I forget to say, it seems a vital aspect of starting the next day is getting synced up properly and early, and that is best done from the carry over from previous day
__________________
tomorrow!
Quote from Cocaine:
What would be nice to see is if Mak and Spy could, when they post their screenshot of the day also add, "today my gross profits were $1400 or $550" or whatever.
I know this may seem out of context as we are focused on the ES mini. (and I
wont make a habit of it)
But I have attached my DAX chart for today so far..
I'm doing this just to reiterate the already stated fact, by spydertrader, that
this methodology is applicable to other markets, especially for those that are
only seeing this in the light of the ES...
I know my chart is still showing a lot of forest floor rumidging (appologies
spydertrader) but I improved re: the main channels and the tapes are ( for me )
a natural progress from one channel to the next..
The DAX is a different animal ( here in the jungle) but hopefully as the chart
shows, no less affected by this methodology...
My electricity bill this quarter will be through the roof....all these
lightbulbs going on...
best to all
FilterTip
"every day I wake up and realize I know nothing and then I smile "
DAX Chart
Ps ..i uplaoded the wrong chart to start with and I have not been able to
annotate or monitor since the last pink FTT...stuff to attend to..so the the
chart does not have the necessary commentary or free space to the right...
DAX comments for filtertip - ES'ers feel free to ignore
Quote from FilterTip:
I know this may seem out of context as we are focused on the ES mini. (and I wont make a habit of it)
But I have attached my DAX chart for today so far..
FilterTip:
I took a look at your DAX chart and only have time for a quick note right now.
You are showing FTTs on non-domimant traverses (retraces) back to your RTL on
the magenta and green RTL's. By definition FTTs only appear on dominant
traverses as they fail to complete the traverse right to left, ie to the LTL.
I hope this helps you to sort out a few things as you review the material.
Re: DAX comments for filtertip - ES'ers feel free to ignore
Quote from PointOne:
Take a look at this snippet - note where I've put the circles marking a couple of linked FTTs early in the session.
Quote from R/R:
FilterTip:
I took a look at your DAX chart and only have time for a quick note right now.
You are showing FTTs on non-domimant traverses (retraces) back to your RTL on the magenta and green RTL's. By definition FTTs only appear on dominant traverses as they fail to complete the traverse right to left, ie to the LTL.
I hope this helps you to sort out a few things as you review the material.
Quote from Cocaine:
What would be nice to see is if Mak and Spy could, when they post their screenshot of the day also add, "today my gross profits were $1400 or $550" or whatever. No need to see an account statements, I think everyone who follows this thread closely would believe either of these fellows. EOD P&L is merely a scorecard for how the day went. It would just be nice for those following the thread to see how its teachers are doing while we are all following in realtime.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: Re: ES07020107
Quote from Spydertrader:
The idea behind the YM leading the ES has less to do with timeframes, and more to do with 'smart money' involvement in the marketplace. Equating the ES two minute to the YM two minute isn't quite like comparing apples and oranges. It's more like comparing Red Delicious and Golden Delicious Apples. While both make for a great snack, you'd only want to 'bake' with one. Using the other makes for a really crappy pie.
In short, if I am going to go through the trouble to bake a pie, I'd like to make sure it doesn't end up tasting like crap. As such, using the 2 minute YM as a leading indicator of ES Price insures one uses the best 'ingredients' available.
Good Trading to you.
- Spydertrader
This is a question Ive put forth too but watching the last couple of days with YM directly above ES I certainly see the value in anticipating the FTT's. As to the smart money, it makes sense to me that they can play their games easier on 30 stocks than on 500.
This morning was classic. Ive started using the translucency feature on Quotetracker and running YM right behind ES and scaled to synch. Makes it easy to follow. The ftts on bar 4 and 10 are clearly anticipated on the YM.
ingenious! but there is
diversion sometimes.
Well realy ..."realy" ?? !!
Moved last green chanel on ES and YM ..is this allowed..?
Quote from FilterTip:
Moved last green chanel on ES and YM ..is this allowed..?
__________________
Quote from FilterTip:
Moved last green chanel on ES and YM ..is this allowed..?
Seems like CCC..?
Quote from Spydertrader:
We walked out of that channel and into CCC. Oberve the extremely low volume levels on the ES and YM.
I notice you have added a 'Volume Footprint' to your workspace, yet have failed to add the 'Market Pace' lines to your YM and ES Volume. Since you appear to continue to experience some difficulty 'getting it,' perhaps, you should take the advice others have provided you and re-read this thread in an effort to catch what you have missed the first time through. In this fashion, you'd stop inventing and start following directions.
My comments are not designed to be 'mean' or impolite. I simply want to make you understand the valuable advice already dispensed in your direction.
Of course, the choice remains yours as to how you feel it best to proceed from here.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: ES07020107
Quote from dougcs:
Great thread so far!!!
What is the rationale for your comment that YM is smarter than ES?
Doug
ps-just wondering as this part of JH does not make sense to me.
market pace lines, see the pencil
Quote from Pr0crast:
I chose not to move mine simply because we are in CCC.
Quote from nkhoi:
market pace lines, see the pencil
Other Stuff
Quote from FilterTip:
Yes appologies for the VolFootprint stuff...other studies going on too..
__________________
ETL That is pretty much the way I was thinking too. Smaller timeframe appears to lead the larger timeframe but I now believe there are other factors involved. For one lets assume smart money hits ES and YM at the same time. It takes much less volume to move YM than it does ES so the smart money there causes YM to move before ES catches up.
Quote from Pr0crast:
I chose not to move mine simply because we are in CCC.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from FilterTip:
"Market Place lines"..?
__________________
this is great, comparing play books at half time.
ty Mak- always fun to compare to your charts
Somebody should get you a hat
that says "PV Patrol".
Spydertrader
Thanks for this great journal, I'm catching up and trying to learn the material,
I wanted to ask this question for a while now but decided to wait till we got to
discussing YM in the syllabus,
My question is do you use YM only as a leading indicator in spotting FTTs in ES
?
Can the Jack Hershey method be used to trade YM on the 2 min timeframe, I guess
the answer is yes, but YM has less volume than ES, and trading on the 2 min
timeframe seems too fast for me, but this is only my perception,
If trading YM on the 2 min and by definition it is a leading index, is it better
to trade it using wider channels rather than going for every traverse ? I
understand this to mean coarse resolution, is this correct ? Or with practice
can one draw in the finer channels and trade these on the 2 min YM ?
Thanks
I have a feeling you are going to get an earful from Spydertrader just for
asking these questions
Quote from vedanta:
Spydertrader
Thanks for this great journal, I'm catching up and trying to learn the material, I wanted to ask this question for a while now but decided to wait till we got to discussing YM in the syllabus,
My question is do you use YM only as a leading indicator in spotting FTTs in ES ?
Can the Jack Hershey method be used to trade YM on the 2 min timeframe, I guess the answer is yes, but YM has less volume than ES, and trading on the 2 min timeframe seems too fast for me, but this is only my perception,
If trading YM on the 2 min and by definition it is a leading index, is it better to trade it using wider channels rather than going for every traverse ? I understand this to mean coarse resolution, is this correct ? Or with practice can one draw in the finer channels and trade these on the 2 min YM ?
Thanks
Quote from Pr0crast:
ty Mak- always fun to compare to your charts
Quote from Bearbelly:
ETL That is pretty much the way I was thinking too. Smaller timeframe appears to lead the larger timeframe but I now believe there are other factors involved. For one lets assume smart money hits ES and YM at the same time. It takes much less volume to move YM than it does ES so the smart money there causes YM to move before ES catches up.
Quote from vedanta:
Thanks for this great journal, I'm catching up and trying to learn the material, I wanted to ask this question for a while now but decided to wait till we got to discussing YM in the syllabus,
Quote from vedanta:
My question is do you use YM only as a leading indicator in spotting FTTs in ES ?
Quote from vedanta:
Can the Jack Hershey method be used to trade YM on the 2 min timeframe, I guess the answer is yes, but YM has less volume than ES, and trading on the 2 min timeframe seems too fast for me, but this is only my perception,
Quote from vedanta:
If trading YM on the 2 min and by definition it is a leading index, is it better to trade it using wider channels rather than going for every traverse ? I understand this to mean coarse resolution, is this correct ? Or with practice can one draw in the finer channels and trade these on the 2 min YM ?
__________________
YM-ES unofficial early edition
ES 5min 5 Feb 07
Quote from dkm:
ES 5min 5 Feb 07
I'll sort the Market Pace Lines for tomorrow.
thx spooz trader for getting me onto the 5 min for only channels.
I shall look to push this out further to even slower time frames.
thx R/R for sorting my FTT location re non-dominant trend.
and everybody for your references..etc..
Things certainly clicked a lot better today..
YM 2 min
I added the pink channel at deciding pink point 3..
Quote from nkhoi:
it has to hit at the same time because 30 is in 500.
Quote from Bearbelly:
ETL That is pretty much the way I was thinking too. Smaller timeframe appears to lead the larger timeframe but I now believe there are other factors involved. For one lets assume smart money hits ES and YM at the same time. It takes much less volume to move YM than it does ES so the smart money there causes YM to move before ES catches up.
FilterTip:
Also please note that we only BO and FBO the RTL.
Quote from FilterTip:
I know this may seem out of context as we are focused on the ES mini. (and I wont make a habit of it)
But I have attached my DAX chart for today so far..
I'm doing this just to reiterate the already stated fact, by spydertrader, that this methodology is applicable to other markets, especially for those that are only seeing this in the light of the ES...
etc.
Quote from ivob:
I don't know if DAX and ESTX50 move together but I have been annotating ESTX50 for a while but the results where not satisfying. Too much differences in volatility I guess. It gets choppy. I don't like it.
I do like very much the way eurodollar moves using this system. Have been annotating it and works well. As you are in Europe (like me) it could be an option to trade eurodollar before ES opens. Don't do it immediately but annotate for a while as this is also not the same animal as ES.
You can start small and use cash instead of futures but you can use the Eurodollar future chart for volume clues.
regards.
Ivo
Today's ES Chart
Notice even when we have CCC you can still find ways to annotate and make a
small profit.
- Spydertrader
__________________
YM Leads
YM Leads the ES
- Spydertrader
__________________
YM leads ES. Why?
Quote from ETLURKER:
Conclusion: Seeing an index move ahead of another index is not "proof" that 1 leads another, but may indicate that 1 tracks its underlying cash more closely and its quote reporting is more continuous as opposed to discrete.
Granularity.
Re: YM Leads
Quote from Spydertrader:
YM Leads the ES
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: YM Leads
Quote from Jander:
from chat room this AM
Spydertrader (Feb 5, 2007 10:15:22 AM)
FTT sirf (short term sentiment change in YM)
__________________
the chat room will be filled to the brim with eavesdropper tomorrow !!!
Re: YM leads ES. Why?
Quote from PointOne:
Why does the signal appear on YM first? ...
I hope Jack will add his comments.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
The YM leads the ES debate
After reviewing many of the posts in the last 24 hours it appears as if we
have two questions before us. 1. Does the YM really lead the ES? and 2.
If so, why does the YM lead the ES?
As to the former, clearly the YM leads the ES at times of change. I have
posted several examples from numerous trading days where one can easily see the
YM make the turn prior to the ES - often more than a few minutes ahead of time.
Other traders have also posted their observations where they see the YM leading
the ES in times of change. As such, we can all (or most, or many of us)
can agree that the YM does indeed lead the ES.
Having answered the former, we can turn to the later: Why does the YM
lead the ES?
Many have provided their opinions as to why this phenomenon takes place.
ETLURKER posted a wonderful mathematical model, Jack Hershey has, in the past,
explained his views, and many traders provided various observations as to their
reasons why the YM leads the ES in times of change.
As to my own viewpoint, allow me to put it as succinctly as possible:
Who cares?
Seriously. I am not being trite when I say this, but really, let someone else
worry about the 'why?' Does knowing 'why?' put any additional money into your
pocket? Does knowing 'why?' make you a better trader? Does knowing 'why?' help
you 'see' the FTT any sooner?
Many people have already provided their opinions. They might all be right in
some fashion or another, or they could all be wrong in some fashion or another.
Does it matter? Not to me. We could spend the next 17 pages of this thread
debating "Why the YM leads the ES?" without arriving at a consensus. And, even
if we all arrived at the same viewpoint in the end, would it have put one
additional penny into your pocket? Doubtful.
Focusing too much on 'why?' is sorta' like going to the ballgame and wondering
what company made the paint covering the seats. I mean it's nice to know that
Dupont made the paint and Monsanto planted the grass, but does knowing those
things help you to learn how to hit? Do baseball players really need to learn
fluid dynamics, drag coefficients and the physics angular velocity to hit a
curve ball?
Understand, I don't intend to stifle the debate. Rather, I hope to encourage
everyone to keep the debate within its proper context. In other words, let's
keep our eye on the ball.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Re: YM leads ES. Why?
Quote from bundlemaker:
I believe this has been discussed before in other threads. The answer to this question is that smart money causies the YM leading the ES phenomenon.
I am only relating my belief, which in turn, was motivated by Jack's explanations. If you don't believe or agree with this, that's fine by me.
Trends and traverses have dominant movements. these are seen as increasing volume that "pushes" price to new extensions of profits.
A Guassian illustrates this. That is why we use it in a market that is a leading indicator of our trading chart. We pick a 30 stock index to compare to our 500 stock index. There is a difference in the two just by their difference in diversity. we parallel this comparison with the Cash and futures values of DJIA because the YM is more volatile than the INDU cash. This mutual swinging where one is more extreme than the other gives us a "difference" that is "amplifying" in character. The small group of "leaders" in the futures index has the name "smart money"
Re: The YM leads the ES debate
Quote from Spydertrader:
Who cares?
Re: Re: The YM leads the ES debate
Quote from PointOne:
If you don't want further discussion about this on your thread, fine.
__________________
Spyder,
“who cares” could be extended to “is it important?”
My immediate thought/reaction was echoed by Pointone. I like to use the
automobile analogy: does a profound knowledge of car mechanics make you a better
driver? Not necessarily, but you will know the limitations of your vehicle,
specifically, what it (and you) can and can’t do.
Similarly, it isn’t unusual to see questions re the validity of knowledge of the
greeks, for example, when discussing options. Will this enable you to make more
money? Maybe not, but importantly, it allows for the identification of risk (and
reward) and where it lies. In other words, it may not make more money but it
will identify more appropriate strategies for a certain expectation or outlook
and therefore reduce potential losses.
To extend the point, there are numerous legendary traders with only basic
education, as there are with maths Ph.D’s. But what percentage with a basic
education fail compared to those with a higher education? I don’t know, it’s an
open question.
Grant.
pre open channels, thank to Steve for passing along tip; carry over channel
shouldn't have any bar piercing it.
ps. YM point down so look like the red channel will be use, let's see
ES so far...
follow the red channel
ES so far
Halftime
__________________
DAX.so far (for the Euro's amongst us..)
Re: The YM leads the ES debate
Quote from Spydertrader:
Who cares?
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: YM leads ES. Why?
Quote from PointOne:
I don't know where you got the impression that I don't believe the YM leads the ES. I have observed it and believe it: it's almost cheating.
WISTYI I'm fascinated as to why it works out this way - it's one of the best breaks we've been given as the "not-so-smart-money" and I'm surprised it hasn't been totally ironed out by the arbs. There must be good reasons why it can't be. I think it is very important to understand the other players in the market, their motives and operational limitations. Jack could help our understanding here. For now I'm just happy it works.
I have read a lot of Jack's post on this subject. I did not mean to give the impression that I was totally new to this concept. For example, here's a snip of something he wrote previously (which I have filed in an electronic 3-ring binder):
I know we'll be getting on to STR/SQU in good time (the cash INDU and futures YM premium comparison). I'm very curious to know what the YM equivalents are for the Nikkei and DAX, I'm starting to feel exposed out there without all the tools.
ES 6 Feb 07
Notes 6 Feb 07
Had a few breakthroughs today..
The point 3 thing was quite fluid.
I think a combo of getting close enough to the market but not too close.
Like you have to see the bacteria but from the forest canopy..
Secondly, the way and importance of channel coming OUT FROM previous channel..i
was better on the DAX with this but without realizing that I was doing it.
Serendipidy visited again today as I posted immediately after Spytrader's "half
Time" post which I didn't know he had posted.
His Olive channel (which I superimposed on to my attached chart) spoke to re:
coming OUT FORM previous channel. Reason being , the ease (relatively) that his
channel set out the future, His olive channel ( as it transpired) gave far
better conext for the future price action. To be able to compare with where I
was in the market (at that very moment was the serendipidy).
Lastly, it was also continued insight to see that by taking the "NOW" action re:
the rules of FFT, FBO and BO, even I was able to stay on the right side.
Eventually I was channelling out og previous channels with a bit more
fluidity...
Anyway forgive the indulgence. It goes without saying that I hope what I've
posted is or will be ( in the future) a help, in so far as asking a question or
making an observation, for someone who is also on the same starting out process
as myself.
Best to all
FilterTip
"every day I wake up and realize I know nothing and then I smile"
DAX ...final
FilterTip
a V day, I found if it's too confusing look at YM for guident, 3 possible channels for Wed.
Chart for today
Quote from Spydertrader:
Thank-you for waiting until the discussion reached the appropriate portion of the Syllabus before asking your question. I appreicate your efforts to keep the discussion on track.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from vedanta:
My question is do you use YM only as a leading indicator in spotting FTTs in ES ?
My ES for today.
My YM for today.
Quote from dkm:
ES 6 Feb 07
Today's ES Chart
Note the difference between change and continuation once again.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from Pr0crast:
dkm,
no need to be so unsure about your FTTs! A lot of those were FTTs that you have marked "FTT? no..." were indeed FTTs, they just didn't lead to a BO.
Ah, gotcha To each his own.
AM so far... Pretty. Sorry for not having the vol annotations. They are
there. I just do them mentally in realtime of course. I'm having some
intermittent connectivity problems so ignore the differences you see in my bar
plots...
Regards,
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Bar 17...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
stall at half time
32... Mind my connectivity flaw...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
MAK, SPYDER et al: How do you go about setting your brackets? Looks to me to be centering on 1456.50 but curious how far out you set your brackets.
ES 5min YM 2min DAX 5min
FilterTip
ES 5 min 7 Feb 07
YM 2min 7 Feb 07
Quote from Bearbelly:
MAK, SPYDER et al: How do you go about setting your brackets? Looks to me to be centering on 1456.50 but curious how far out you set your brackets.
__________________
@BearBelly
If I have to bracket, I bracket just outside the extremes of the formation. If
it is close to getting hit without major volume, I pull the bracket.
Nonetheless, it is good to see that you were confident that the market was
poised to move. That is the heart of anticipation. I should have caught the
lateral earlier but as usual, I was looking elsewhere and attempting to slalom
as depicted by my 2M YM. My grey channels on my YM are my colored channels on my
ES. Nice to see everyone's chart more or less the same. Hopefully, we can get
some rough days under our belts so that everyone can feel comfortable that they
can annotate the full spectrum.
Regards,
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Forest Post
I plan to have a post together later this evening which should help those
with difficulty remaining on the coarse level (Forest) resolution. Look for
today's ES chart at that time as well.
- Spydertrader
__________________
The Forest Level
After reviewing many of the posts, charts, notes and logs attached over the
last several days, I have noticed a common theme by many contributors. In
addition, several of the PM's, IM's and questions received in the ET chat room
revolve around this very same question:
How to avoid 'dropping down' in resolution.
As beginning traders, we want to stay at the Coarse Level Resolution - the
Forest Level. However, when we notice an FTT form within a dominant channel, we
look to reverse - even if the FTT turns out to be an FBO or another FTT. As a
result, we find ourselves dropping down to lower and lower resolutions. Now, if
we had the tools for the Sub - FTT and Sub - Sub FTT levels (trees, limbs and
leaves), no problem. Unfortunately, (right now) we only have a hammer and a pick
axe. Too often, beginning traders have attempted to do brain surgery (focusing
on the changes in color intrabar of the YM or ES) with the pick axe and
hammer, instead of a scalpel and scissors.
Understand, Because we do not yet have the tools needed to perform at the finer
levels of resolution, we need to find a way to force ourselves to remain
at the Forest View until we can gain the experience necessary to move to the
next plateau. Some of the more experienced Futures Traders who trade Jack's
Methods already do this, and after some recent phone conversations, those who
recently adopted this philosophy felt it beneficial to their trading as well.
What is required here is an ever so slight shift in mindset, and one, that
should help facilitate the learning process.
On the attached Chart Snip (above), we can clearly see two dominant channels -
one uptrend and one down trend. I have also highlighted the Points One, Two and
Three for each, as well as The FTT's which proceeded the channel formations.
Also note, the 'taped channels' used to create the Point Three Channel.
Currently, we reverse on every FTT we encounter. Exiting on an FBO, reversing on
another FTT or holding on a BO. For now (and in an effort for you to 'see' how
the market operates and profit while you learn) I want you to set those rules
aside and alter them ever so slightly.
Beginning with the attached snippet we see the first down channel (red), and
within it, a red FTT. Rather than reverse at this point, The Forest View Trader
holds until price breaks the right side trend line. At that point, the
Forest View Trader Exits, and waits for the formation of a Point Three in the
direction of the FTT (highlighted yellow). At this point, the Forest View Trader
enters Long off the Point Three Formation continuing to hold until
price breaks the right side trend line. Notice, at the top of the snippet, we
see another FTT (circled). However, once again, The Forest View Trader does not
reverse. The Forest View Trader holds until price breaks the right side trend
line. Once again, the Forest View Trader then waits for a Point Three Formation
(highlighted Green) in order to enter short (in the snippet example) as is the
same direction of the previous FTT. Again, we hold as long as price stays within
the Point Three Channel.
Notice, how I draw in the taped channels only until I created a Point Three
dominant trend. After that point, no need to draw in the taped channels (at
this resolution). As you can see (and if you can't from the snippet and
description, you will by looking at today's ES chart) 'flaws' have no
place in the Forest View. We do not care what bars do within the
channels. We only care that price stays within the channels or
not.
As price moves through the channel, you should remain ever vigilant to look for
FTT's in an effort to learn to anticipate what happens next (To begin to peek
over the hill for an advance warning). You should also continue to monitor
Gaussians using the "bigger picture" as a guide. When an FTT arrives on scene,
continue to walk through the sequence of events which you would normally
do at lower level resolution (Reverse on the FTT, Exit on the FBO, Etc.)
In addition, when using the YM, make your annotations across a much larger
period of time (See attached YM chart below). Do not draw in the 'tapes'
just yet. Use the YM in the same fashion you always have, but do not act
upon signals on the ES. Follow the temporary rule set above for the ES in
an effort to learn how to follow the Ebb and Flow of Price and Volume.
I plan (for the time being) to only annotate my own charts based on this Forest
View process. In this fashion, we can all operate "on the same page" - so to
speak. On my attached ES Chart, I have market the entry points for long and
short with triangles and pens. All exit points marked with Light Bulbs.
For those who have experienced difficulty remaining on The Forest level View,
this should provide the assistance you need to remain at that level. IF any
questions exist in your mind, please post them here. I want to make sure
everyone can 'see' the process before tomorrow's opening bell.
Thanks to Excav8Ter and Jack for their input which resulted in the above post.
Good Trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's ES Chart
Notice the RED arrows at the Flaw Event.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Ym larger channels
- Spydertrader
__________________
Spyder - after viewing your current YM chart, I am a bit confused. Are we to be charting data for the YM on a 23 hr. /day basis, or should our start and stop times coincide with our ES chart setting? Seems like your first red dominant channel is based off of pre - 9:30 EST price action. No doubt I missed this somewhere earlier. Thanks ...
YM start Time
Quote from mephistoII:
Are we to be charting data for the YM on a 23 hr. /day basis, or should our start and stop times coincide with our ES chart setting? Seems like your first red dominant channel is based off of pre - 9:30 EST price action. No doubt I missed this somewhere earlier. Thanks ...
__________________
Flaws Pic
As requested, A .jpeg of some flaws. Remember, At the Forest View, Flaws do
not exist.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from mephistoII:
Spyder - after viewing your current YM chart, I am a bit confused. Are we to be charting data for the YM on a 23 hr. /day basis, or should our start and stop times coincide with our ES chart setting? Seems like your first red dominant channel is based off of pre - 9:30 EST price action. No doubt I missed this somewhere earlier. Thanks ...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Spyder
I have an entry on point 3 and exit on BO question. See the area circled in the
attachment for my question. In this case we have some channel overlap which
makes this rule hard to follow within the circled area.
Your graphs are excellent.
Thank You!
Overlap
Quote from 8833broc:
I have an entry on point 3 and exit on BO question. See the area circled in the attachment for my question. In this case we have some channel overlap which makes this rule hard to follow within the circled area.
__________________
Thanks for your responses, Spyder and Mak. If I am now on the correct page, I
will no longer "sweat the little stuff"
spydertrader.
You have the patience of a saint...
A few questions if I may..
1. Having entered only at a point 3 are we to exit at the cross of the right
trend line if the price bar goes through RTL, but then retraces back into the
channel form where it has come and closes still within the channel, or only if
the bar closes outside the channel.
I ask because from your chart , the LAST red FTT, you have the light bulb and
pale blue arrow on the black bar that is still within the down red channel
(having shorted from the orange point 3).
2. Am I correct to assume the last lightbulb with it's arrow pointing to the
right is an exit of the last long form the olive point3 ( at price 1452 approx)
at the close of the market..?
3. Are we to make no annotations other than the channels and the points 1,2,3..
and initial tapes after exit to help establish the next new channel.. and our
entry and exit marks..?
My sincere thanks.
FilterTip
"every day I wake up and realize I know nothing and then I
smile "
P.S My appologies Spydertrader.. My edit excludes a refernce to the 3rd trade as
this 3rd trade, long form the olive point 3, would not be taken by forest Level
traders......please excuse my error here..
Questions
Quote from FilterTip:
1. Having entered only at a point 3 are we to exit at the cross of the right trend line if the price bar goes through RTL, but then retraces back into the channel form where it has come and closes still within the channel, or only if the bar closes outside the channel.
Quote from FilterTip:
I ask because from your chart , the LAST red FTT, you have the light bulb and pale blue arrow on the black bar that is still within the down red channel (having shorted from the orange point 3).
Quote from FilterTip:
2. Am I correct to assume the last light bulb with it's arrow pointing to the right is an exit of the last long form the olive point3 ( at price 1452 approx) at the close of the market..?
Quote from FilterTip:
3. Are we to make no annotations other than the channels and the points 1,2,3.. and initial tapes after exit to help establish the next new channel.. and our entry and exit marks..?
Quote from FilterTip:
P.S My appologies Spydertrader.. My edit excludes a refernce to the 3rd trade as this 3rd trade, long form the olive point 3, would not be taken by forest Level traders......please excuse my error here..
__________________
spydertrader
Thx for replies..I understand re: cookbook.
It's more like an atlas of the whole country rather than an A-Z of individual
streets..with all the one way signs and no entries and no left/right
turns..etc..
Ignore the P.S on my last post, I was confused att about the 3 rd trade around
the flaw situ...
For the purpose of seeing if I am understanding the slightly revised rule set
re: FTT etc..attached is DAX chart so far,..
This slightly revised rule set does help me to stay at a higher resolution..or
at least I hope I am on a higher resolution..?
It's taking the trade at point 3 that does it, and keeps me away from the
inter-channel responses.
Great stuff...
Many thanx.
FilterTip
One Added Channel
I added one additional Channel to your annotations to help you 'see' the
Forest.
- Spydertrader
__________________
mid-day report, CCC as usual
half time score
Halftime
__________________
Hi,
Start of the day was interesting IMO. Especially on YM it became quickly obvious
that the dominant channel was down (see attach) but also on ES it could be seen.
So I was waiting for retracement that started around 9:50. While price was
increasing, volume was decreasing confirming main trend was down. Then at 10:05
main trend resumed starting FBO on YM and quickly after that the same happened
on ES although it first touched the LTL and then broke right through RTL on
lower volume which is good, low volume means change.
I though this information was somewhat contradicting, ES hitting left trendline
(risk of volatility expansion / price continue going up) and the FBO on the YM.
Then the Forest view helped because the bias was down plus the YM is leading.
Without YM this move would have been impossible to spot because the 10:10 bar on
ES could be considered an FTT but one that would be very hard to spot.
regards,
Ivo
ES Half Time...getting it, sort of..
FilterTip
better recognition of wider channel on DAX..
FilterTip
circa 55...
CONTINUATION of the grey channel or BO SHORT is imminent...
\/\/
day...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
ES 5 min YM 2min
Channels seem SO wide..
FilterTip
Quote from ivob:
...
I though this information was somewhat contradicting, ES hitting left trendline (risk of volatility expansion / price continue going up) and the FBO on the YM. Then the Forest view helped because the bias was down plus the YM is leading. Without YM this move would have been impossible to spot because the 10:10 bar on ES could be considered an FTT but one that would be very hard to spot.
...
[/B]
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
ES 5 min YM 2min Flag.
FilterTip
I guess those charts are easy on your eyes but they are a bitch to read here.
ES 8 Feb 07
ES 5min Ym 2min Final
Much better view..getting a bit more of it...
filterTip
Now thats a pretty chart dkm.
Very easy to read chart dkm... I like it.
Today's ES Chart
Light Bulb = Exit Signal
Pen = Short Signal
Arrow = Long Signal
- Spydertrader
__________________
Annotations only
Annotations Only
- Spydertrader
__________________
YM Chart
Today's YM
- Spydertrader
__________________
spyder, my chart is identical to yours except this point 1, wonder why did you choose the next bar? to make the channel less steep?
Which Point One?
Quote from nkhoi:
spyder, my chart is identical to yours except this point 1, wonder why did you choose the next bar? to make the channel less steep?
__________________
a OT question, on charting 101 avi file, there seem to be another way of numbering the channel, when do you use the old style vs the new style
Conventional vs. Right Side Numbering
Quote from nkhoi:
a OT question, on charting 101 avi file, there seem to be another way of numbering the channel, when do you use the old style vs the new style
__________________
Quote from nkhoi:
spyder, my chart is identical to yours except this point 1, wonder why did you choose the next bar? to make the channel less steep?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
YM... Didn't see the larger timeframe magenta until the FBO of the lunch pennant (ie. 30M/45M fractal). Caution, this a nickel and dime type of P annotation.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
ES... The blue box was a bank vault.
Bare with me as I transition back
to the forest view...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from makosgu:
... Differences in the angle of the channel are not important. Knowing that you had a critical pt(s) for the new channel was...
Regards,
MAK
I am new for this method.... this is My parer trades from todays session ....
I lost my concentration on bar 13.....
friday, low vol mid day report
ES mid day
YM
My Channel work caught this fall right fine and and becasue of vol readings
am holding thru 1449 to 47...
Edit: Exit at 1448 vol stall and fear...
ye ha....
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Nice Work
Anyone following the 'Forest View' Guidelines should have seen a nice trade
(5 - 7 ES points per contract) unfold right before their eyes in real time, and
now (again on Forest View Resolution) exited to bank the coin? Did anybody
not see it? Please post your comments either way so I can 'see' where we
need to focus the next several posts.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Nice Work
Quote from Spydertrader:
Anyone following the 'Forest View' Guidelines should have seen a nice trade (5 - 7 ES points per contract) unfold right before their eyes in real time, and now (again on Forest View Resolution) exited to bank the coin? Did anybody not see it? Please post your comments either way so I can 'see' where we need to focus the next several posts.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Nice Work
I had a little CCC formed on my YM starting at 12:09, volume was very light.
YM broke down out of CCC at 12:23 on rising selling volume. ES trading at 1453
at this point. I then had a down YM channel drawn in where I spotted, on my
chart, a possible FTT at 13:17 on YM, ES trading at 1447.50. From my forest
view, thats what I saw.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Anyone following the 'Forest View' Guidelines should have seen a nice trade (5 - 7 ES points per contract) unfold right before their eyes in real time, and now (again on Forest View Resolution) exited to bank the coin? Did anybody not see it? Please post your comments either way so I can 'see' where we need to focus the next several posts.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Nice Work
Quote from Lightbody:
But, as I write this, we are having a pretty nice down move. As I recall, we were suppose to hold during a stall. Therefore, on paper since I am still a beginner and keep my money, I was holding through this to see the out come, since I did not see an fttat the 13:00 bar (ET). Perhaps I should re-examine my thoughts on holding through this even though this time I was on the right side. My chart is on my other computer. Perhaps I can post it later.
__________________
Re: Re: Nice Work
Quote from Lightbody:
I agree with your post. Getting back to the forest is great since I was raised in a log cabin in the Washington wilderness.
But, as I write this, we are having a pretty nice down move. As I recall, we were suppose to hold during a stall. Therefore, on paper since I am still a beginner and want to keep my money, I was holding through this to see the out come, since I did not see an ftt at the 13:00 bar (ET). Perhaps I should re-examine my thoughts on holding through this even though this time I was on the right side. My chart is on my other computer. Perhaps I can post it later.
Again, thank you for such a wonderful journal and personal effort.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Nice Work
Quote from Spydertrader:
.. Please post your comments either way so I can 'see' where we need to focus the next several posts.
- Spydertrader
who would have though it moves at friday during lunch hour but I had a nice luch.
Inspite of the detail I am on the Forest view...got the main channels well.
Did not stay in for whole move down, but used the yellow exspansions as stop
targets and re-entered from a point 3 each time..
FilterTip
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart with comments.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Today's YM Chart
Hey ST,
I'm a little confused about a channel on this 2min YM. Starting from FTT @ 11:48
(red channel). It looks to be drawn w/o a pt 3. Can you explain why you drew the
channel this way? I can see this working if we use the 12:00 bar as pt 2 and
12:18 bar as pt 3.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES Chart with comments.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's YM Chart
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
I'm a little confused about a channel on this 2min YM. Starting from FTT @ 11:48 (red channel). It looks to be drawn w/o a pt 3. Can you explain why you drew the channel this way? I can see this working if we use the 12:00 bar as pt 2 and 12:18 bar as pt 3.
__________________
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
You mention on the charts taped FTT's
__________________
Re: Nice Work
Spyder,
Quote from Spydertrader:
Did anybody not see it? Please post your comments either way so I can 'see' where we need to focus the next several posts.
Re: Today's ES Chart
Spyder,
Thanks for the answer to the YM ques. I just have one about the 5 min ES from
Friday. Why was pt. 1 for the orange channel chosen from the 9:35 bar and not
the 9:45 bar? I understand completely why it was pt. 1 for the brown channel but
not the orange. Can you explain the rationale for this? Does it really even make
a difference?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES Chart with comments.
- Spydertrader
I have a quick question.
Does it really matter what color the decreasing side of the gaussian is?
And spyder, you asked for some feedback so you know where we stand. I like the
change in ruleset. I found it immediately easier to stay at a coarse resolution
and for some reason at this stage I find it much easier to ID the pt. 3's than
the FTT's. I also like the fact that the pt. 3 entry is with the trend as
opposed to the FTT entry which was fading the trend at least until the FTT was
confirmed. So far it seems less damaging to get out of a wrongly ID'd pt 3 than
an wrongly ID'd FTT. There is also a much smaller zone to focus in on to find
the pt 3 than the FTT. The FTT could happen anytime after the pt 3 is
established, where as the pt 3 can only come after the pt 2 and between the
point 2 and previous pt 1. The volume formation of a point 3 is also much more
clear cut for me at this point. And the RTL beginner exit is nice because our
risk is predefined. As a beginner, it's comforting to have a line in the sand
which, if crossed, you're wrong and you get out no questions asked. It also
works as a trailing stop, so over time we know we're making money at the rate of
the slope of the RTL.
So thank you for being proactive in realizing there were some difficulties for
some of us with the previous beginner rules and making these alterations. The
efforts both you (spy) and the other participants are putting forth are greatly
appreciated.
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Spyder,
Thanks for the answer to the YM ques. I just have one about the 5 min ES from Friday. Why was pt. 1 for the orange channel chosen from the 9:35 bar and not the 9:45 bar? I understand completely why it was pt. 1 for the brown channel but not the orange. Can you explain the rationale for this? Does it really even make a difference?
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Yes, but why?
Quote from nkhoi:
all 3 channels have the same point 1
the first channel is the red one, after that you have new point 3, 2 (orange), so you recycle point 1 to create orange channel. Then you have new point 3, 2 (brow), so you recycle point 1 to create brow channel
I can see conceptually from the chart what was done, but channel drawing
rules seem to change or maybe I dont know all the rules fully. When did
"recycling" pt 1's become ok to do?
I guess I just dont understand why there is an orange channel on this chart in
the first place. It looks like pt 3 of the orange channel is just an FBO of the
red channel. Next bar remains inside red channel and the following after that
creates a volitility expansion @ 10:25. Why the need for the orange channel?
Quote from nkhoi:
the first channel is the red one, after that you have new point 3, 2 (orange), so you recycle point 1 to create orange channel. Then you have new point 3, 2 (brow), so you recycle point 1 to create brow channel
Quote from C99:
I have a quick question.
Does it really matter what color the decreasing side of the gaussian is?
The volume formation of a point 3 is also much more clear cut for me at this point.
I thot I read somewhere that Jack said the RTL is "cast in stone".
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
I can see conceptually from the chart what was done, but channel drawing rules seem to change or maybe I dont know all the rules fully. When did "recycling" pt 1's become ok to do?
I guess I just dont understand why there is an orange channel on this chart in the first place. It looks like pt 3 of the orange channel is just an FBO of the red channel. Next bar remains inside red channel and the following after that creates a volitility expansion @ 10:25. Why the need for the orange channel?
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
I can see conceptually from the chart what was done, but channel drawing rules seem to change or maybe I dont know all the rules fully. When did "recycling" pt 1's become ok to do?
I guess I just dont understand why there is an orange channel on this chart in the first place. It looks like pt 3 of the orange channel is just an FBO of the red channel. Next bar remains inside red channel and the following after that creates a volitility expansion @ 10:25. Why the need for the orange channel?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
I agree with you about using pt 1 for the red channel, our first of the day,
and the brown channel that shares the same pt. 1 is also clear for me to see and
understand as this give us a slightly more "zoomed out" view and smooths out
pace as well. I guess maybe the orange channel is something you either feel is
necessary or dont. Personally, the red one worked well and the FTT @ 10:55 was
clear on my chart.
As I write this, I notice something else from Spyders ES chart that I am unclear
of. The light pinkish/purple channel which shares a pt 1 with the darker purple
channel is drawn in using a pt 3 on the 1:30 bar. I am assuming this channel is
fully drawn in AFTER the 1:30 bar is complete? Technically the 1:25 bar opens
and closes outside of our RTL but volume is very light. This part of the chart
is a little confusing to me as I am new, I'm working on getting things
straightened out.
Quote from Jander:
Steve...
This has been going on the whole time. I dont know about 3 channels with the same pt 1, but at least 2 channels come up quite frequently. There has been discussion here in the past about 'moving' the point 3, which is what this amounts to for me.
It looks like the red channel was a much better container for price action than the orange on this anyway (if you extend the channel lines 30 minutes), so I wouldnt sweat it if you didnt have the orange drawn in (ftt was quite clear in whichever channel you wanted to look at). I think the orange channel gives you a better 'forest' view as ST would say. This helps me tremendously by holding price action over a longer period while I am trying to nail down the new points of the new trend...trying to work my way down in fractals =)
HTH...maybe Spyder will provide a better explanation
Thanks Bundlemaker I will read the channels Pdf again and hopefully this will
clear up my mental block
Quote from bundlemaker:
The orange channel is there because a new point 3 formed.
Nothing has changed in how channels are drawn. By definition, a point 1 is "recycled" at least twice for every single channel. This is because the move from point 1 to point 2 (taped channel) breaks and a retrace on lower volume forms a point 3 (point 3 channel or whatever you want to call it). By definition both these channels use the exact same point 1.
If in doubt, just lay in lines where ever they make sense to you. As soon as you catch "a mistake" (this word is truly a misnomer), fix it by erasing or adjusting or perhaps by next time realizing you need or don't need a given mark on your chart.
The channel document PDF has several pages of exacting instructions and examples that may help you. IT's as close to a set of channel rules as you'll find in one place. I'm the kind of guy that needs really exact intructions to feel comfortable. That document helped me until at some point I realized I needed to trust myself. Trusting happens after you do 20 or 30 or 40 days of channel and annotations in real time. DOing it after the fact, (for me anyway) caused more harm than it helped.
Steve,
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
As I write this, I notice something else from Spyders ES chart that I am unclear of. The light pinkish/purple channel which shares a pt 1 with the darker purple channel is drawn in using a pt 3 on the 1:30 bar. I am assuming this channel is fully drawn in AFTER the 1:30 bar is complete? Technically the 1:25 bar opens and closes outside of our RTL but volume is very light. This part of the chart is a little confusing to me as I am new, I'm working on getting things straightened out.
Reversing is starting to make more and more sense to me. If you have been on
the right side of the market and get to a decision point and change is indicated
then reversing is your insurance policy. You can ride out the retrace in perfect
comfort. If it resumes the worst that can happen is a small profitor wash on the
resumption but if it takes off in the other direction you are already on board.
I suppose I am jumping ahead again but chalk it up to irrational exhuberence. I
have been running replays all weekend.
edit: Ensign keeps a running library of tick data dating back a few months. It
is a great way to practice and almost as good as the real thing.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Reversing is starting to make more and more sense to me. If you have been on the right side of the market and get to a decision point and change is indicated then reversing is your insurance policy. You can ride out the retrace in perfect comfort. If it resumes the worst that can happen is a small profitor wash on the resumption but if it takes off in the other direction you are already on board. I suppose I am jumping ahead again but chalk it up to irrational exhuberence. I have been running replays all weekend.
edit: Ensign keeps a running library of tick data dating back a few months. It is a great way to practice and almost as good as the real thing.
Well I hate to burst your bubble but I am improving. I have learned from
Linda. I have learned from you. I have learned from many people. I could give a
rats ass about SCT. A couple of points a day will make you all the money you can
spend in a couple of years and I am pretty confident I will get there. If you
want me to stay away from this thread, fine. np.
EDIT: after second thought I will not stay away from this thread. This is not
your thread, it is Spydertraders. If he asks me to stay away I will do so. I am
going to put you on ignore.
Ignore
Quote from Bearbelly:
EDIT: after second thought I will not stay away from this thread. This is not your thread, it is Spydertraders. If he asks me to stay away I will do so. I am going to put you on ignore.
__________________
Re: Ignore
Quote from Spydertrader:
While I respect whatever decision you ultimately choose, I strongly encourage you to continue your active participation in this thread.
- Spydertrader
Quote from ivob:
Hi,
I have always been focussing more on identifying FTT's than on point 3's. Could you please elaborate on the volume of a point 3 and in general on how to recognize this?
I mean, on a downtrend you see FTT (pt 1). Price breaks thru RTL on usually low volume. Then goes up one or a few bars (pt 2) and then goes down on lower volume and stays above the FTT. Now we are waiting for pt3 to be established and price to resume going up. What do we see? Higher volume? A (mini)FTT? Is there any post about this?
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
Can anyone pls comment on my question regarding recognizing a point three? What are your experiences with this?
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
Hi,
I have always been focussing more on identifying FTT's than on point 3's. Could you please elaborate on the volume of a point 3 and in general on how to recognize this?
I mean, on a downtrend you see FTT (pt 1). Price breaks thru RTL on usually low volume. Then goes up one or a few bars (pt 2) and then goes down on lower volume and stays above the FTT. Now we are waiting for pt3 to be established and price to resume going up. What do we see? Higher volume? A (mini)FTT? Is there any post about this?
regards,
Ivo
Thanks a lot for your answer bi9foot
Quote from bi9foot:
Let me just throw out another possibility here for you. Lets assume that when the price broke the RTL, we continued to see decreasing black volume. What does that tell you?
If you have any questions let me know
Quote from PointOne:
The retrace before a point 3 is often hesitant, uncertain and a little shy. The new point 3 bar is thrusting and confident and tripping over itself to be noticed.
YMMV.
My chart till 11:40 am
flat channels report
This is one tough day to nail down. In 2 months of annotating I have never seen such little followthrough bar to bar. I suspect it's an artifact of the huge range on Friday.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bundlemaker:
This is one tough day to nail down. In 2 months of annotating I have never seen such little followthrough bar to bar. I suspect it's an artifact of the huge range on Friday.
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
There was one clear short this morning telegraphed very nicely by the YM ftt.
The Forest and The Tree
It's still winter here in Ohio. I look out my window and I see a small Forest
across the street. If I look more closely, I can even pick out an individual
Tree. While Spring normally brings back the leaves onto the trees, I don't pay
much attention until Autumn. In the Fall, the leaves all change color. Since
it's still winter, I have no need to go looking for color changes in the leaves.
For now, All I can see is ......
The Forest and The Tree ....
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: The Forest and The Tree
Spy,
Why is this significant, chart wise (what is circled)?
Quote from Spydertrader:
It's still winter here in Ohio. I look out my window and I see a small Forest across the street. If I look more closely, I can even pick out an individual Tree. While Spring normally brings back the leaves onto the trees, I don't pay much attention until Autumn. In the Fall, the leaves all change color. Since it's still winter, I have no need to go looking for color changes in the leaves. For now, All I can see is ......
The Forest and The Tree ....
- Spydertrader
Quote from jack hershey:
...This may seem like a negative post but it is just a reality check that I am introducing, generally speaking. It also, in part, may may it easier for people to filter themselves out of this process when there is no eventuality of it being passed forward, subsequently. Building on success is a main theme; if that is not in play, then it is a tough way to not make it.
Re: Re: The Forest and The Tree
Quote from Cocaine:
Spy,
Why is this significant, chart wise (what is circled)?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Re: Re: The Forest and The Tree
Quote from bundlemaker:
I think Spy was pointing out how we had increasing black volume on the RTL BO, exactly what you'd expect after an FTT.
Re: Re: Re: The Forest and The Tree
By the time we see that volume is greater at 10:15, price has already broken
out from the right trend line though.
Quote from bundlemaker:
I think Spy was pointing out how we had increasing black volume on the RTL BO, exactly what you'd expect after an FTT.
I thought he was pointing out the exit.
Re: Re: Re: Re: The Forest and The Tree
Quote from Cocaine:
By the time we see that volume is greater at 10:15, price has already broken out from the right trend line though.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: The Forest and The Tree
Quote from Spydertrader:
It's still winter here in Ohio. I look out my window and I see a small Forest across the street. If I look more closely, I can even pick out an individual Tree. While Spring normally brings back the leaves onto the trees, I don't pay much attention until Autumn. In the Fall, the leaves all change color. Since it's still winter, I have no need to go looking for color changes in the leaves. For now, All I can see is ......
The Forest and The Tree ....
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Re: Re: Re: The Forest and The Tree
Bundle,
Which bar do you consider the FTT, 10:05 or 10:10, and why? Thanks.
Quote from bundlemaker:
I think Spy was pointing out how we had increasing black volume on the RTL BO, exactly what you'd expect after an FTT.
ES 12 Feb 07
Today's ES Chart
ES Chart.
__________________
Today's YM Chart
YM Chart
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: The Forest and The Tree
Quote from Cocaine:
Bundle,
Which bar do you consider the FTT, 10:05 or 10:10, and why? Thanks.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
oops, somehow on my chart the scale was adjusted to 5p each, no wonder it
looked so flat line.
Spyder,
How are you able to annotate both the ES and YM in realtime and also trade
actively? Your ES is so detailed, it looks as if this alone takes all of your
time
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: The Forest and The Tree
Thanks for your answer, I had the 10:05 as FTT also, annotated probably a
little later than you (I am still very new to this). The fact that the red
volume is less on the 10:05 bar than the 10:00 bar also may have helped
determine FTT?
Quote from bundlemaker:
In retrospect, the 10:05 bar is clearly the FTT. If I recall correctly I annotated the FTT at the time the 10:05 bar closed. The 10:00 and 10:05 bar create a mini-double bottom, and geometrically it would have been impossible for the bottom of the 10:05 bar to have made a trip back to any left channel line.
I think though, a different answer to your question is what you're seeking. I annotate FTT's at the earliest possible time. At my skill level, admittedly, some of those annotations are closer to guesses. What I am slowly getting into my ever so thick skull is that earlier, incorrect guesses can make you money. It's the need for confirmation that costs ultimate success at this game.
There are several useful pyschological models that spell out various basic human needs. Some call it security, some call it certainty. Call it what you will, the market pays you for NOT needing security or certainty. Amazingly, in the end, by not needing certainty you end up with consistant results. Go figure
Quote from Cocaine:
Spyder,
How are you able to annotate both the ES and YM in realtime and also trade actively? Your ES is so detailed, it looks as if this alone takes all of your time
Mental capacity grows through exercise.
NIKE has it down cold. Just do it!!.
The anti whipsaw is beginning to show up. This will be something you will never
forget and it may seem counterintuitive at first.
Annotations
Quote from Cocaine:
How are you able to annotate both the ES and YM in realtime and also trade actively? Your ES is so detailed, it looks as if this alone takes all of your time
__________________
Hi Jack,
Would you mind expanding on "antiwhipsaw"? Thanks
Steve
Quote from jack hershey:
Mental capacity grows through exercise.
NIKE has it down cold. Just do it!!.
The anti whipsaw is beginning to show up. This will be something you will never forget and it may seem counterintuitive at first.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Hi Jack,
Would you mind expanding on "antiwhipsaw"? Thanks
Steve
Translation
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Would you mind expanding on "antiwhipsaw"? Thanks.
__________________
Quote from Cocaine:
Spyder,
How are you able to annotate both the ES and YM in realtime and also trade actively? Your ES is so detailed, it looks as if this alone takes all of your time
Re: Translation
Thanks Jack and Spyder for answering my ques.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Anti-whipshaw = Where others see chop, you see trend.
- Spydertrader
ensign playback
Off topic question. I played around with ensign to play back the previous
days it is pretty neat.
Can one play back both the YM and ES at the same time using the tick data
available from the ensign website? If is is possible, how can I do it?
Thanks
Re: ensign playback
Quote from bi9foot:
Off topic question. I played around with ensign to play back the previous days it is pretty neat.
Can one play back both the YM and ES at the same time using the tick data available from the ensign website? If is is possible, how can I do it?
Thanks
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: ensign playback
Quote from bi9foot:
Off topic question. I played around with ensign to play back the previous days it is pretty neat.
Can one play back both the YM and ES at the same time using the tick data available from the ensign website? If is is possible, how can I do it?
Thanks
ES... RealTime of course. At some point you will just KNOW what is next and then begin to see WHERE next will be. As a result, you are prepared well in advance of where actions will be required long before it appears... Here is the "during" annotation... I have a "before" annotation on my office machine which I will post in the AM when I get to my office. The "before" annotation was short 1 retrace and 1 traverse...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from Cocaine:
Spyder,
How are you able to annotate both the ES and YM in realtime and also trade actively? Your ES is so detailed, it looks as if this alone takes all of your time
Re: Annotations
Quote from Spydertrader:
Concerning the ES, The Highlighting, Circles, Arrows and Block Text I add with the Screen Capture program (Snag-It) after the market close. The channel lines FTT, FBO, BO and Points 1, 2 and 3 - I annotate in real time. The process doesn't require any more than a few seconds to complete. With respect to the YM, I only annotate the larger trends which require even less time.
With enough practice, annotating charts requires very little time out of your market day.
- Spydertrader
speaking of which, i couldn't resist posting my....
***drumroll please***
FTT OF THE DAY
download
here.
camtasia codec necessary to view (google it). featuring 12 minutes of YM/ES FTT
goodness unfolding in real time.
Did we get a R2R on the YM from 9:48 to 9:52, telegraphing a reversal which did not happen? Am I interpreting the Gaussian incorrectly?
Quote from Cocaine:
Did we get a R2R on the YM from 9:48 to 9:52, telegraphing a reversal which did not happen? Am I interpreting the Gaussian incorrectly?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
EEK! This is the aftermath. I didn't adjust any of the red channels yet. It
is questionable as to whether the current leg will make it to the right side. If
not, THEN, I will adjust... I didn't have time to annotate the leg as I was at
the time responding to the previous post... It is SLO-MO-TION when you look
towards what's next...
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
We didn't fully reach my right, so I adjusted my right side and got up to
date on the traverse/retrace level annotations... The traverse/retrace level
annotations of your YM 2M give clarity to the bar level details of your 5M ES.
After a while, you are taking action within the bar long before it is clear on
your ES as to what is happening...
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
I see that you projected the YM higher based on your up channel but that R2R
Gaussian is confusing to me and you saying the the color mechanism can sometimes
be lopsided makes me nervous that it cannot be trusted. The YM could just have
easily busted through the RTL and then it would seem the Gaussian predicted it?
If you dont mind answering, what did you think when you saw the Gaussian and
what convinced you that the action is was still "hold" or contination? Thanks
Mak
Quote from makosgu:
There are a number of things you have to be careful about. So here is my YM 2M RT of course. I annotated and of course it is doing what I anticipated. You DID see an R2R but you have to identify what your context is. Remember we deal at the forest level. At the forest level, it has two types of trees, traverse trees and retrace trees. The traverse trees are the thin green lines for the first forest thick green line forest annoation. The retrace trees are my red thin lines. The R2R you point out was a dominant of the retrace leg. Within this leg, for me, it was a continuation. I say we have to be a tad bit careful because the coloring mechanism of the bars on a 2M YM can sometimes be lopsided. This is where you have to depend more on your annotation then the color mechanism. What is needed to be in tune with is that the forest has traverse and retrace trees/legs/channels. These traverses and retraces have traverse and retraces. You can take a look at my chart and note what I am expecting. However, my experience is a bit different but this is what I am calibrated too day in and day out. So for me, an FTT will be identified with a channel of a forest level channel which does not extend across to the left side of the forest...
Here's my chart so far, I highlighted your region in question and where I was. Note how, I have the following bar after the circled region as a COMPLETE traverse. In other words, I had 1 bar as a full traverse. Don't worry about the red channel. I got jack's floor contact and called ahead for that. LOL. The extension is far too long tho...
Regards,
MAK
FTT looks 20M out for me... My red channel wasn't long enough. 1 traverse
short... My anticipation going into a dull lunch...
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
My chart for todays am session
noon report, more upside to go?
Quote from makosgu:
FTT looks 20M out for me... My red channel wasn't long enough. 1 traverse short... My anticipation going into a dull lunch...
MAK
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Slowly catching up with my studies
This is my first half for today.
Quote from Cocaine:
I see that you projected the YM higher based on your up channel but that R2R Gaussian is confusing to me and you saying the the color mechanism can sometimes be lopsided makes me nervous that it cannot be trusted. The YM could just have easily busted through the RTL and then it would seem the Gaussian predicted it? If you dont mind answering, what did you think when you saw the Gaussian and what convinced you that the action is was still "hold" or contination? Thanks Mak
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Hi Mak
I see what you mean about the failsafe RTL of the non-dom red retrace (in which
the R2R occurred). Unfortunately, I dont see how we have the thick green up
channel fully annotated at this time as it hasnt formed. Am I incorrect here? I
only see pt 3 of the channel formed after the 9:58 surging bar (maybe you had
yours on the 9:56 bar as you are way more in tune than me). Once that happens,
it becomes clear to me that dominant traverse is back in tact. Unfortunately,
the market would have zoomed away from me by the time this is realized (I didnt
place this trade or any other trades, merely projecting what would have happened
had I BEEN trading).
Also, I am trying hard not to zoom in but remain at forest level so I do not
notice how much of the volume was black before turning red. This seems like a
vital detail. I assume we should not concern ourselves with this as of yet?
Quote from makosgu:
So we see that there are 2 problems for you here. If you are nervous, you do not know what is going on. Reversing is more advanced then exiting. R\/R and B\/B are "CHANGE" signals. R/\B and B/\R are "CONTINUATION" signals. I stated in my post that I annotate traverses and retraces of channels. Each retrace and each traverse are their own channels. The detail you picked off was without context and I was attempting to try and clarify within my own context of how I saw things. What you aren't seeing as of yet was how much of the bar was BLACK before it went RED. Some pages back, I started annotating the dominants with how the color changed within the bar. There were several bars were a large DOMINANT went RED -> BLACK -> RED again all within the same 5M bar. This is what I mean by lopsided-ness. If you do not see these details, you miss a very subtle detail which is usually not important in the forest view. BUT IN ANY EVENT, let's look from your side of the picture. SAY, YOU DID REVERSE! Things are humming along and everything should be good for you. Why is there nothing to be nervous about??? BECAUSE, if things FAIL to XO your RTL, then the BO has FAILED and you either FBO/EXIT (skill level 2) or FBO/REVERSE (skill level 3) and CONTINUE on the right side. My end all for everything is the forest view and the RIGHT SIDE. At any resolution there is a right side. You are getting hung up in R\/R that you are asking why didn't it do what I THINK it should have done. I run into situations like this all the time. HOWEVER, I do not get nervous because there is always a fail safe, THE RTL! We encourage everyone to stick to the forest view. Forest view says, pt3 => GO, XO RTL => NO GO! At some point, you build up enough skill such that the details of the legs of the forest mirrors the details of the forest... THEN you are ready to step down in resolution or step up in profit taking... Check out my annotation at that point, it was a drifting non dominant short RETRACE. I did note the gaussian as you pointed out. Did you see the following R\/R. If you didn't, what about the fail safe forest level FBO of the the RTL!
MAK
Quote from Cocaine:
I see what you mean about the failsafe RTL of the non-dom red retrace (in which the R2R occurred). Unfortunately, I dont see how we have the thick green up channel fully annotated at this time as it hasnt formed. Am I incorrect here? I only see pt 3 of the channel formed after the 9:58 surging bar (maybe you had yours on the 9:56 bar as you are way more in tune than me). Once that happens, it becomes clear to me that dominant traverse is back in tact. Unfortunately, the market would have zoomed away from me by the time this is realized (I didnt place this trade or any other trades, merely projecting what would have happened had I BEEN trading).
Also, I am trying hard not to zoom in but remain at forest level so I do not notice how much of the volume was black before turning red. This seems like a vital detail. I assume we should not concern ourselves with this as of yet?
__________________
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
My esignal just crashed and I lost my entire days worth of annotations on
both YM and ES. All that hard work, poof, gone!
I guess I can redo the day but this is frustrating.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
My esignal just crashed and I lost my entire days worth of annotations on both YM and ES. All that hard work, poof, gone!
I guess I can redo the day but this is frustrating.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
My esignal just crashed and I lost my entire days worth of annotations on both YM and ES. All that hard work, poof, gone!
I guess I can redo the day but this is frustrating.
Misery loves company
Quote from makosgu:
Same thing happened here... A naked bar chart really doesn't look very appealling... haha
ES 13 Feb 07
First attempt at posting daily ES. I was late to this party but I've spent
the last 10 days (and untold hours!!) reading all of the material. I think I did
OK for my first day....caught most of the ftt's I believe.
ps. the purple verticle bar is my candle countdown timer
John
Real Time annotated chart with trades.
Am I taking to many trades or am I too focused on the weeds?
Thick Green line = long after a pt 3 of a RTL was identified. Exit on break out
of RTL.
Thick Red line = short after a pt 3 of a RTL was identified. Exit on break out
of RTL.
Buy and Sell Price is somewhere between High and Low of bar.
Quote from nkhoi:
noon report, more upside to go?
Quote from ivob:
Hi nkhoi,
I was studying you ES chart and then noticed you do not include the first bar in your first (green) channel. Why is that? Is there a specific reason for it?
..
So is there a specific reason to leave the first bar out?
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
So is there a specific reason to leave the first bar out?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
On a side note, I've downloaded the Camtasia video mentioned early on in this thread along with the codec but the damn thing keeps crashing windows when I open the file and my computer goes into safe mode and I'm forced to shut down. Anybody know why I cant view this video?
easy to cruuiiise on auto-pilot today
Quote from ang_99:
On a side note, I've downloaded the Camtasia video mentioned early on in this thread along with the codec but the damn thing keeps crashing windows when I open the file and my computer goes into safe mode and I'm forced to shut down. Anybody know why I cant view this video?
ang 99, would you please post the page of the video.
Thanks,
Steve
Quote from Esteban:
ang 99, would you please post the page of the video.
Thanks,
Steve
Thanks ang 99
Steve
Here is my ES chart for today. I annotated it in real time until about 12:30 or so, then I had to leave it until this evening. Interesting to see that the heavy lines that I drew in at 11:00 this morning were not broken all day! One of these days I'm going to have to ask WHY do channels work so darn good!
Quote from ang_99:
http://www.traderuniverse.info/training_videos.htm
double click on Tucson_IDB_Meetup, then double click on Metting Videos folder, click on avi file you want then click download button (bottom)
thanks for the help nkhoi...i am not able to see any folders once connected...for some reason i cant connect directly with a seperate ftp program either...any ideas?
Today's ES Chart
The following ES Chart has
Hindsight Annotations as offline commitments
prevented me from monitoring the market in real time.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
The following YM Chart has
Hindsight Annotations as offline commitments
prevented me from monitoring the market in real time.
- Spydertrader
__________________
you might need to download java.
look at the bottom of the page for instruction.
Quote from Jander:
thanks for the help nkhoi...i am not able to see any folders once connected...for some reason i cant connect directly with a seperate ftp program either...any ideas?
I get timed out all the time. Any way around this?
yea mine just freezes up constantly...guess I'll keep trying, would really like to get these vids
java
Check
to see if you have the latest version of Java. Also, these are rather large
files (very large).
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: java
Quote from Spydertrader:
Check to see if you have the latest version of Java. Also, these are rather large files (very large).
- Spydertrader
Quote from Pr0crast:
easy to cruuiiise on auto-pilot today
i would love to trade the SCT method, however from what i have read all these
methods need to be traded intraday. i have a full time job and that simply is
not feasible, neither am i willing to take the risk of quitting my job and
taking up
trading full time.
what i want to know is whether the SCT method is tradeable on a daily fractal?
i.e just the bare bones of it, the FTT, channels and volume. i find that
intraday trends are much easier to enclose with channels than daily chart trends
which seem to yield more FBOs and BO of the right trendline
IF there is anyone who has traded this method successfully on daily OHLC charts,
id love to learn how to trade it
thanks
EOD Method
Quote from terminator:
IF there is anyone who has traded this method successfully on daily OHLC charts, id love to learn how to trade it
__________________
Re: EOD Method
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes. Start Here. Use the FTT Methods (Price and Volume) with Equities, and you can trade entirely on an EOD basis.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: EOD Method
Quote from terminator:
I am in Australia and the initial universe criteria dont quite fit that well.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: EOD Method
Quote from Spydertrader:
A couple of guys from Australia (over in the Equities Thread) use the Hershey Methods to trade the US Equities Markets (using an automated strategy) from downunder. They both seem to do pretty well. Perhaps you could contact them and see how they have adapted.
- Spydertrader
Fair value of Index Future
Mak, Spyder:
Do you check or calculate the fair value of Eminis every morning before you
enter the trades?
If the premium is a little high, say, 3.50 to 2.00 greater than the fair value
of Index Futures, What Actions do you take?
Market order or the best bids that you consider?
Many thanks!
Re: Fair value of Index Future
Quote from bucherwin:
Mak, Spyder:
).
Quote from bucherwin:
Do you check or calculate the fair value of Eminis every morning before you enter the trades?
Quote from bucherwin:
If the premium is a little high, say, 3.50 to 2.00 greater than the fair value of Index Futures, What Actions do you take?
Quote from butcherwin:
Market order or the best bids that you consider?
__________________
Quote from Tums:
it was a frustrating day for me. I was scrutinzing every move between YM and ES, looking for signals, instead of sitting back and wait for the FTT to speak to me.
I have to change my frame of mind tomorrow.
Quote from PointOne:
snip . . . BTW has anyone viewed the "logical" charting camtasia?
.
Re: Re: Re: Re: EOD Method
Quote from terminator:
thanks, will look into it. so it is essentially impossible to adapt SCT to daily fractals spyder?
Quote from makosgu:
Even if you find yourself to be upside, just regard your RTL.
Quote from ivob:
I don't understand this. I draw a RTL and LTL and see an FTT so I expect price to reverse into a retracement or reversal. So what trendline is there to respect? I expect price to break the trendline and to go into a new trend. Or it must be the RTL of the new trend.
regards,
Ivo
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
At 7am PST we just barely came back and touched the RTL of yesterday's
dominant uptrend channel and then a 7 stage rocket to the upside...
ye ha....
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Re: Fair value of Index Future
Quote from bucherwin:
Mak, Spyder:
Do you check or calculate the fair value of Eminis every morning before you enter the trades?
If the premium is a little high, say, 3.50 to 2.00 greater than the fair value of Index Futures, What Actions do you take?
Market order or the best bids that you consider?
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
You know why this happened right? Bernanke spoke at 10:00
Quote from EdgeHunter:
At 7am PST we just barely came back and touched the RTL of yesterday's dominant uptrend channel and then a 7 stage rocket to the upside...
ye ha....
Here is my ES+YM as of 11:00. I have annotated the ES bar at 9:55 and the YM bar at 9:58. It seems that one could have gone long as late as 9:58 due to the ftt of the channel of the previous day. The ES bar at 9:55 was also a clue since it was on higher volume (near 20k). Of course by 10:00 the fireworks were well underway. I was supprised how fast Bernake's news traveled. I would like to hear more about these "Greenspan" days, but I suppose thats a tool for a later time.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
You know why this happened right? Bernanke spoke at 10:00
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from EdgeHunter:
i was forced to make more points then i intended...
__________________
ES so far, 11:35
update 14:24
The idea of entering on a flaw and being able to come away unscathed or with a minor profit is an intersting concept. I take this to mean that one enters on a flaw, realizes the flaw, and quickly reverses to get back on the right side. Does this mean that, in the process of realizing the flaw and reversing one might lose a tick or two but once back on the right side, one makes up for those minor losses by being back on the right side of making money?
Cocaine,
That's how I understand it too. For example if you look at my ES chart a few
posts back, if you went short at 9:55 instead of going long, you would have
realized you were on the wrong side within a minute or two. I guess the key is
you would have to reverse your position, not just buy back your shorts. Although
today you would have made a handy profit even if you were wrong initially, most
days are not are not like today from what I can tell. I would like to see more
discussion about this myself. Any comments?
Flaws
Quote from WGTrader:
Any comments?
__________________
Quote from Cocaine:
Does this mean that, in the process of realizing the flaw and reversing one might lose a tick or two but once back on the right side, one makes up for those minor losses by being back on the right side of making money?
Thanks Spyder, but I'm still a bit uncertain how I should have read the ES bar at 9:55. If I understand what you're saying, the Point Three Channel was established by 9:45, at which time the up trend channel was established and one should have gone long. And since the bar at 9:55 did not close below the RTL, the up trend stayed intact. Is this correct?
Re: Flaws
You are correct, no flaws on the forest view. Its just I have heard Jack and
others discuss anti-whipsaw and the like and know the concept exists. For now
though, in the forest view, we dont concern ourselves. But thanks for the answer
anyways
Quote from Spydertrader:
On the 'Forest' Level Resolution, Flaws do not exist. As long as price remains within the Point Three Channel, one does not care what happens within each bar. Flaws do begin to appear when one drops down in resolution level (trees, limbs and leaves). One profits from the flaws first by the amount of money made from the initial reverse (when the trader thought they observed an FTT) to the present time (when the trader realizes he did not observe an FTT). On many occasions, Price has already moved more than a few tics when the trader sees (based on Volume) that he could not have had an FTT. As such, the trader reverses. At this point the trader locks in the profit. When the market moves back to the original reversal point, the trader profits again (making an additional profit he / she would not have made without the error and reversal compared to simply holding). As the market continues to move in the original direction, the trader continues to make money.
First by accident (Oopps, that wasn't an FTT), and later by design (finer resolution calls for tools which show these FLAWS as instruments of change). The trader will continue to profit.
Again, all of the above occurs on resolution levels below Coarse Level Resolution.
- Spydertrader
ES 14 Feb 07
Quote from WGTrader:
Thanks Spyder, but I'm still a bit uncertain how I should have read the ES bar at 9:55. If I understand what you're saying, the Point Three Channel was established by 9:45, at which time the up trend channel was established and one should have gone long. And since the bar at 9:55 did not close below the RTL, the up trend stayed intact. Is this correct?
Opening Bars
Quote from WGTrader:
Thanks Spyder, but I'm still a bit uncertain how I should have read the ES bar at 9:55. If I understand what you're saying, the Point Three Channel was established by 9:45, at which time the up trend channel was established and one should have gone long. And since the bar at 9:55 did not close below the RTL, the up trend stayed intact. Is this correct?
__________________
Spyder, what's the M.O. for scheduled reports that usually move the market? Are they ignored and traded business-as-usual, are they just something to be aware of, or are they a sideline type of thing? TIA.
Quote from C99:
Spyder, what's the M.O. for scheduled reports that usually move the market? Are they ignored and traded business-as-usual, are they just something to be aware of, or are they a sideline type of thing? TIA.
__________________
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from WGTrader:
Thanks Spyder, but I'm still a bit uncertain how I should have read the ES bar at 9:55. If I understand what you're saying, the Point Three Channel was established by 9:45, at which time the up trend channel was established and one should have gone long. And since the bar at 9:55 did not close below the RTL, the up trend stayed intact. Is this correct?
__________________
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: Re: Flaws
Quote from Cocaine:
You are correct, no flaws on the forest view. Its just I have heard Jack and others discuss anti-whipsaw and the like and know the concept exists. For now though, in the forest view, we dont concern ourselves. But thanks for the answer anyways
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Good posts mak. We will miss a lot of boats in our careers.
wonder why my 9:55 bar didnt hit LTL...looks like we drew it through same points?
Re: Today's ES Chart
One thing I am having a tough time w/ is when we have, say a down channel
drawn with our 3 pts. Then a bar or two prints fully outside the RTL, but then
price goes back and continues to traverse in the original direction (down). We
then recycle pt 1 to alter the channel. How can we tell in realtime if this is a
true breakout of the RTL or just one of those times where we lessen the
steepness of our channel? Is this a "zoom in" question? I understand how to
annotate the situation but cant seem to figure out in advance to annotate
faster.
As an example, lets use Spyder's ES chart from today and the final two down
channels of the day (first we get red channel and then we get orange channel
using same pt 1). Does anyone know the answer
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
I hear ya Steve...
That part if giving me trouble as well. I would love to hear a debrief of that
entire orange channel if someone has it--I think that would help out alot.
Also, Spyder has a red increasing gaussian from that 15:35-15:45. Well after the
first two bars all you have is increasing black--no idea that the incr. red is
coming up, so what are you thinking during this time? I know that 15:40 black
bar came back down a few ticks before it closed, but i think it's still 50/50 as
to what the next bar is going to do. Hard to stay at forest view at times like
these I think...
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
As an example, lets use Spyder's ES chart from today and the final two down channels of the day (first we get red channel and then we get orange channel using same pt 1). Does anyone know the answer
__________________
Quote from Jander:
Also, Spyder has a red increasing gaussian from that 15:35-15:45. Well after the first two bars all you have is increasing black--no idea that the incr. red is coming up, so what are you thinking during this time? I know that 15:40 black bar came back down a few ticks before it closed, but i think it's still 50/50 as to what the next bar is going to do. Hard to stay at forest view at times like these I think...
__________________
This is a very intersting area and one that comes up all the time. Here is how I see it.(coarse method) Coming in with a cushion makes a lot of difference.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
It does, and I am sure with time and experience I'll be able to identify
these more quickly. Thanks!
Quote from Spydertrader:
For me, when price 'walks' out of the channel (moves laterally), I automatically look for a way to widen the original channel (fan out and recycle Point One). When prices 'moves' (with the aid of volume) I look for continuation of the 'change' signal.
I hope that makes sense.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
One thing I am having a tough time w/ is when we have, say a down channel drawn with our 3 pts. Then a bar or two prints fully outside the RTL, but then price goes back and continues to traverse in the original direction (down). We then recycle pt 1 to alter the channel. How can we tell in realtime if this is a true breakout of the RTL or just one of those times where we lessen the steepness of our channel? Is this a "zoom in" question? I understand how to annotate the situation but cant seem to figure out in advance to annotate faster.
As an example, lets use Spyder's ES chart from today and the final two down channels of the day (first we get red channel and then we get orange channel using same pt 1). Does anyone know the answer
Quote from Spydertrader:
Look at the price bars. The first (of the black bars) closes right at the open price. It's safe to say we had a 50 / 50 split of red to black dominating that bar. The second bar spikes and closes just above where it opened. Much of the end of this bar is dominated by red volume - hence the spike and pullback. In other words, the Gaussians changed within the bar itself.
However, on the Forest Level, nothing but experience (from viewing 1000's of charts over the years) tells you to look at these volume bars in such a fashion.
- Spydertrader
This is a great illustration of why we "sweep down" to the YM... the YM tells the story perfectly for that time period... pt1 to pt2 on rising black vol - pt3 on falling red. FTT on rising black - falling red - switch.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Look at the price bars. The first (of the black bars) closes right at the open price. It's safe to say we had a 50 / 50 split of red to black dominating that bar. The second bar spikes and closes just above where it opened. Much of the end of this bar is dominated by red volume - hence the spike and pullback. In other words, the Gaussians changed within the bar itself.
However, on the Forest Level, nothing but experience (from viewing 1000's of charts over the years) tells you to look at these volume bars in such a fashion.
- Spydertrader
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
Quote from Cocaine:
The idea of entering on a flaw and being able to come away unscathed or with a minor profit is an intersting concept. I take this to mean that one enters on a flaw, realizes the flaw, and quickly reverses to get back on the right side. Does this mean that, in the process of realizing the flaw and reversing one might lose a tick or two but once back on the right side, one makes up for those minor losses by being back on the right side of making money?
noon report, we are near daily top channel with decline vol one again
Quote from nkhoi:
noon report, we are near daily top channel with decline vol one again
WILL TRADE
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ES 15 Feb 07
Quote from BA_Trader:
This is a great illustration of why we "sweep down" to the YM... the YM tells the story perfectly for that time period... pt1 to pt2 on rising black vol - pt3 on falling red. FTT on rising black - falling red - switch.
But hey - that is totally useless if you didn't have the "forest view" in mind... in other words - you must be anticipating a sequence like that in the context to make use of the info.
Coarse -> a little medium (and that's as far as we've gotten).
Difficult day for me charting and trading wise. I kept getting taken out on
small moves and small losses following the three point to enter and exit on BO
rule.
My chart is well annotated to show my trades and my hindsight analysis. My
hindsight analysis is excellent ( LOL ).
Hard to determine DOM tranverses due to low volume this morning on dominants and
retraces.
Twice I noticed while in Long positions the 2 minute YM sentiment changing from
long to short sentiment but still held till a BO if the long RTL.
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM
- Spydertrader
__________________
I assume all those lines are crystal clear to you
.
It would be illuminating to me if you could show me where you went long or short
off of a chart like that. I am not interested in learning the system or for a
description which is, I am sure, in these threads already. But curious how in
the middle of all those lines you find your entries and exits for trading. I am
honestly curious and this is not a dig in anyway as it seems quite detailed and
logical.
But everyone here just puts up charts with lines that appear to be done at the
end of the day so curious as to when someone is acutally going long or short.
Quote from optioncoach:
I assume all those lines are crystal clear to you
..But everyone here just puts up charts with lines that appear to be done at the end of the day
...
I am sure, but they appear at the end of the day already neat and i wanted to
hear from somebody who draws these in real time and shows when they went long or
short. I am not asking for a detailed explanation of how the lines are drawn as
I read most of the old text on that already but more curious as to when you are
placing your trades because all I am seeing is the EOD chart with the lines.
I think it would be interesting to see a trade done off of the chart. No real
time signals, just curious since the discussions is only focused on how to draw
the lines but no one ever mentiones a trade lol.
Quote from nkhoi:
chart should be done real time or ahead of time, it might appear EOD but let me assure you I drew it real time.
Quote from optioncoach:
I am sure, but they appear at the end of the day already neat and i wanted to hear from somebody who draws these in real time and shows when they went long or short.
__________________
Quote from optioncoach:
... No real time signals, just curious since the discussions is only focused on how to draw the lines but no one ever mentiones a trade lol.
thanks.. it is more interesting to match the trades to the lines
Quote from Spydertrader:
Here is a post where someone linked to a video of them drawing channels (actually, I think it shows him catching the signal [an FTT]) in real time.
Earlier in the Journal, I added symbols to show entry long, entry short, and exit points. I also included the clock for when I captured the screen shot.
- Spydertrader
Quote from optioncoach:
I am sure, but they appear at the end of the day already neat and i wanted to hear from somebody who draws these in real time and shows when they went long or short.
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
For intraday moves the options are not appropriate so better to do it with
futures
Quote from optioncoach:
I am sure, but they appear at the end of the day already neat and i wanted to hear from somebody who draws these in real time and shows when they went long or short. I am not asking for a detailed explanation of how the lines are drawn as I read most of the old text on that already but more curious as to when you are placing your trades because all I am seeing is the EOD chart with the lines.
I think it would be interesting to see a trade done off of the chart. No real time signals, just curious since the discussions is only focused on how to draw the lines but no one ever mentiones a trade lol.
Quote from optioncoach:
I am sure, but they appear at the end of the day already neat and i wanted to hear from somebody who draws these in real time and shows when they went long or short. I am not asking for a detailed explanation of how the lines are drawn as I read most of the old text on that already but more curious as to when you are placing your trades because all I am seeing is the EOD chart with the lines.
I think it would be interesting to see a trade done off of the chart. No real time signals, just curious since the discussions is only focused on how to draw the lines but no one ever mentiones a trade lol.
scrapbook
You can check this older thread where I've posted some of my real-time options trades, using Jack Hershey's methodology. It shows 1 to 3 day trades.
Quote from optioncoach:
For intraday moves the options are not appropriate so better to do it with futures
I'm trying to learn the volume formations i should be looking for when im
looking for a FTT. However im looking over some old charts posted here with FTTs
marked.
The volume formations seem to differ between a /\ or \/ gaussian.
just not sure which one i should be looking out for or both. clarification would
be great
thanks
Quote from terminator:
I'm trying to learn the volume formations i should be looking for when im looking for a FTT. However im looking over some old charts posted here with FTTs marked.
The volume formations seem to differ between a /\ or \/ gaussian.
just not sure which one i should be looking out for or both. clarification would be great
thanks
Re: scrapbook
Quote from cnms2:
You can check this older thread where I've posted some of my real-time options trades, using Jack Hershey's methodology. It shows 1 to 3 day trades.
Spyder,
Could we maybe get more indepth on the YM and its use as a leading indicator?
The month is halfway through, and I dont know if we discussed it ad nauseum yet
Does anyone agree or disagree?
Quote from PointOne:
2 FTTs from the DAX in the last hour:
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DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
that would be excellent mak..
by the way, is it me or have there been a hell of alot of flaws today?
This is my 5th day plotting channels as I was late to discover this thread.
I've read most of the material and intend to read everything again this weekend.
My biggest hurdle has been in recognizing the pt 3 in real time. I hope that I
will get a better feel for identifying these points after practicing for a few
more weeks. Great thread and I'm learning a lot! This method feels very
comfortable.
John
Quote from Jander:
that would be excellent mak..
by the way, is it me or have there been a hell of alot of flaws today?
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DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
The Gaussian no make sense to me, today we have R2R from 10:40-10:44 on YM. YM in down channel. I see R2R also on ES around same time. After this, price goes up. Can anyone explain?
Hi All,
I find FTT's easy to recognize providing the channels are drawn in the right
way.
For example this morning see the attachment. In the first picture I use bars
3,4,5 to draw the channel. In the second picture I use bars 2,3,6 to draw the
channel.
Using the first picture one would recognize the FTT. In the second picture not.
So my questions are:
1. Should the channel be drawn as it is drawn in the first picture. Is that the
correct way?
2. If yes, why? It seems so logical to include bars 6 and 7 and I do recall
Spyder stating that he is always looking to widen the channel. Or should both
channels be drawn?
regards,
Ivo
carry over channel also give you FTT.
ps. incase you wonder why I picked a down carry over channel, well, it open way
down so it seem logical to pick that one, imho.
Quote from ivob:
Hi All,
I find FTT's easy to recognize providing the channels are drawn in the right way.
For example this morning see the attachment. In the first picture I use bars 3,4,5 to draw the channel. In the second picture I use bars 2,3,6 to draw the channel.
Using the first picture one would recognize the FTT. In the second picture not. So my questions are:
1. Should the channel be drawn as it is drawn in the first picture. Is that the correct way?
2. If yes, why? It seems so logical to include bars 6 and 7 and I do recall Spyder stating that he is always looking to widen the channel. Or should both channels be drawn?
regards,
Ivo
The carry over channel works great, only thing I see, and I may very well be
wrong, is that there is no pt. 3. If you were to adjust it to have a pt 3, it
would be a little steeper but fits nicely into todays action. Expanding that
channel works great though, FTT very visable to me.
Quote from nkhoi:
carry over channel also give you FTT.
ps. incase you wonder why I picked a down carry over channel, well, it open way down so it seem logical to pick that one, imho.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
The carry over channel works great, only thing I see, and I may very well be wrong, is that there is no pt. 3. If you were to adjust it to have a pt 3, it would be a little steeper but fits nicely into todays action. Expanding that channel works great though, FTT very visable to me.
Quote from ivob:
Hi All,
I find FTT's easy to recognize providing the channels are drawn in the right way.
For example this morning see the attachment. In the first picture I use bars 3,4,5 to draw the channel. In the second picture I use bars 2,3,6 to draw the channel.
Using the first picture one would recognize the FTT. In the second picture not. So my questions are:
1. Should the channel be drawn as it is drawn in the first picture. Is that the correct way?
2. If yes, why? It seems so logical to include bars 6 and 7 and I do recall Spyder stating that he is always looking to widen the channel. Or should both channels be drawn?
regards,
Ivo
__________________
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
AM CarryOver on YM... I didn't adjust...
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Spyder used pt. 1 at 3:40 (from yest), pt. 2 at 3:50 and pt 3 at 4:00. This
is what I have and makes a nice carry over channel, w/ volitility expansion for
this morning open. makes the FTT look nice too at 10:05.
Can we use same bar for pt.1 and pt 2 for a channel? Maybe for a "tape" but I
dont know about a real channel. Am I wrong?
Quote from nkhoi:
I check the 'official' chart but it also show the same channel, is this point3 that you have question on? also check page 87 of channels for building wealth v2.2 http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachmen...&postid=1362591
Quote from makosgu:
Will sort this out after market and over the weekend... No carry over on the ES. Here's my AM to NOW...
Quote from ivob:
Now that I check your chart and when I redraw I see I missed this first FTT. Price didn't make it to LTL by a few ticks.
Drawing the right way really is the most important.
Ivo
__________________
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from makosgu:
Let's say I screwed it up and it DID get to the LTL... What's your failsafe??? I am just like all of you guys. SOMEtimes, I completely miss the FTT. Does it bother me? ABSOLUTELY NOT!. If I don't play the FTT, then I play the RTL! Very straight forward. I see I screwed up by not putting in the forest view lateral that was on my YM... Then we could compare the obvious FTT of the lateral to the not so obvious of the AM. Again, it is possible to screwup an FTT; but you shouldn't screw up the RTL XO...
Regards,
MAK
Throughout the day I kept saying to myself, "This feels like one huge
lateral," or "which of these 302853 channels that I've drawn is price actually
operating in?" The dominant kept switching and no CLEAR trend was talking
to me. I looked to the gaussians for help as I always do, but this morning they
were a bloody mess. The morning had about a 3 pt range, mid-day had about a 2 pt
range, and things didn't really seem to have a clear direction until towards the
end of the day.
Stepping back from the chart I started to see things a little more clearly. I
know that in lateral channels you can have a volatility expansion in either
direction, so I thought to myself, if volume is drying up in the absence of a
clear price direction , wouldn't it make sense to implement a lateral volatility
contraction? I've attached my chart, with the changes I made EOD (in thick
purple). This is just how it looked to me when I stepped back and tried to
understand the forest and correlate volume with what the hell was going on.
Eminis07021607
FYI,
This is a drawing a made in effort to help...for understanding
of fractals....
Hi,
I've been playing catchup on this excellent thread (and annnotating many charts)
for the last week or so.
I think I'm doing well (and I love the purity of working just with PV), but I
don't understand the last FTT and FBO on spyder's ES chart. The FTT is marked on
a volatility expansion (which is a reconsidered FBO), while the FBO looks like
an FTT. Could someone explain that to me?
Also, the basic rule set for trading doesn't say when to exit if you get a BO
(and therefore hold) that then starts to retrace--is there a general rule?
TIA
Hi ive been spending the last few days looking and drawing channels in on
daily charts. I just wanna make sure that i'm getting the right idea with the
channel drawings and FTT/BO/FBO identifications.
Thanks
in case ur wondering what market it is, its teh SPI200 daily. Also last part
of spyder's ES chart looked like a volatility expansion. i couldnt pick up how
the FTT came to be
thanks
Quote from Mr_Black:
This is a drawing a made in effort to help...for understanding
of fractals....
__________________
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G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from terminator:
Hi ive been spending the last few days looking and drawing channels in on daily charts. I just wanna make sure that i'm getting the right idea with the channel drawings and FTT/BO/FBO identifications.
Thanks
Quote from Mr_Black:
This is a drawing a made in effort to help...for understanding
of fractals....
Quote from palinuro:
Hi,
I've been playing catchup on this excellent thread (and annnotating many charts) for the last week or so.
I think I'm doing well (and I love the purity of working just with PV), but I don't understand the last FTT and FBO on spyder's ES chart. The FTT is marked on a volatility expansion (which is a reconsidered FBO), while the FBO looks like an FTT. Could someone explain that to me?
Also, the basic rule set for trading doesn't say when to exit if you get a BO (and therefore hold) that then starts to retrace--is there a general rule?
TIA
Hey Terminator,
Quote from terminator:
Hi ive been spending the last few days looking and drawing channels in on daily charts. I just wanna make sure that i'm getting the right idea with the channel drawings and FTT/BO/FBO identifications.
).
Also, on some of the bars, my TL's completely cover up the candle "wick". So,
you'll have to look back at your original chart in a few places.
R/R,
Thanks very much; you're right, I was reversing the TL's--definitely a lapse
into confusion.
Still not sure why we would expect the next bar after the volaitility expansion
to traverse. Wouldn't it normally begin the retrace?
More catching up this weekend...
Quote from palinuro:
I don't understand the last FTT and FBO on spyder's ES chart. The FTT is marked on a volatility expansion (which is a reconsidered FBO), while the FBO looks like an FTT. Could someone explain that to me?
__________________
Quote from palinuro:
Still not sure why we would expect the next bar after the volaitility expansion to traverse. Wouldn't it normally begin the retrace?
Quote from Mr_Black:
This is a drawing a made in effort to help...for understanding
of fractals....
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1364182
Quote from Tums:
My expansion on your effort.
Please comment.
Quote from Jander:
Very nice Tums...although it looks like you have the blue points 1 and 3 on the LTL
Spyder or Mak,
I am having problems seeing the 2 minute YM as a leading indicator but I see it
more as a coincident indicator. I get the same results focusing on the 2 minute
emini as I do the 2 minute YM when trading the 5 minute emini. I can see a 2
minute FTT develop sooner than a 5 minute FTT irregardless of if I am viewing a
2 minute YM or EM chart. Granted I may see it at 1004 am on a 2 minute bar but
have to wait for the 5 minute bar to close at 1005am.
Mr_Black FTT chart is what the charts looked like last Thursday and Friday. I
think my THursday chart confusion was a result of seeing, trading and confusing
the immediate channels ( the now ) with the Intemediate channels. I was mixing
pt 3s and BO.
Attached is a 2 min and 5 min emini chart. I highlighted the ym ftt and drew a
line to the 5 minute EM chart. Can you add any points that I missed.
regards,
Quote from Spydertrader:
I hope that helps clarify things for you.
- Spydertrader
Quote from R/R:
I know where you're coming from with this as it bothered me for some time not knowing the extent of retrace required before we would consider the next effort to traverse as a potential FTT. I have not found this to be specifically defined anywhere.
As you visualize the intrabar price movement in Spyder's reply to you, you see implicitly that he considers a minor retrace adequate.
Also look at the next to last bar which made a 2-bar double top in his chart snippet, and although not marked, guess what that might have been called in real time?
Quote from 8833broc:
I am having problems seeing the 2 minute YM as a leading indicator but I see it more as a coincident indicator. I get the same results focusing on the 2 minute emini as I do the 2 minute YM when trading the 5 minute emini. I can see a 2 minute FTT develop sooner than a 5 minute FTT irregardless of if I am viewing a 2 minute YM or EM chart. Granted I may see it at 1004 am on a 2 minute bar but have to wait for the 5 minute bar to close at 1005am.
__________________
Attached
.
__________________
Spyder
Your example was helpful. THANK YOU!
The primary reason I was waiting on the close of the 5 min bar was because I had
a belief that this would help me avoid being "whipsawed" ie entering and exiting
positions based on price noise. I was thinking that the 5 minute bar would
better help me focus on the forest. I have to work on this internal dialog some.
On the day of your example was there any more occurrances of the
YM leading the ES that you can reference?
Thanks again.
Quote from palinuro:
R/R,
Re that 2nd-last bar, would you really consider such a slight difference (less than a tick) a FTT? I thought channels were a little fuzzier than that, though they are incredibly precise often enough.
Real World Chart Confusion example based off of TUMS graphics.
On the attached TUMS chart I labeled in RED another possible channel.
Below is my internal dialog/logic that I would of used that would of convinced
me that my new channel is the correct one.
1) Time Series A and E comparision - Prices are rising but Time Series E has
lower volume series than Series A.
2) Time Series b and d increasing red volume bars and series d relative to
series b
is showing increasing downside volume.
3) Time Series d has more convincing downside volume compared to Series e upside
volume.
At this point I am convinced that I have identified the NEW DOMINATE DOWN
CHANNEL.
When I notice a BO of my NEW RED CHANNEL I willing accept that I was wrong and
exit
my short.
Quote from 8833broc:
Real World Chart Confusion example based off of TUMS graphics.
8833broc,
Quote from 8833broc:
Real World Chart Confusion example based off of TUMS graphics.
On the attached TUMS chart I labeled in RED another possible channel.
...
At this point I am convinced that I have identified the NEW DOMINATE DOWN CHANNEL.
When I notice a BO of my NEW RED CHANNEL I willing accept that I was wrong and exit
my short.
Quote from spooz_trader1:(clipped)
Well, for me, the volume bars leading up to your new point 3 are missing. [I realize TUMS prolly excluded these on purpose for his example] Did we have increasing black volume up to your point 3 or did we have decreasing black volume (missing vol bars) at that point in time (NOW)? And what was the gaussian looking like after your point 3? Did we see increasing red there (NOW, a few bars later)?
Hey R/R,
Quote from R/R:
Spooz - are you looking at the chart graphic with "time series A - e"?
Doesn't this show decreasing black volume up to point 3 of the new red channel?
I'm not sure we're looking at the same chart, or looking at it in the same context.
Spooz - We're on the same page
you just zoomed in alot tighter than I did. I read more into 8833's description
and looked at the diagram only conceptually assuming the intent was diminshing
volume up to the point 3.
Now that I look at his volume diagram more closely he even stacked red/black and
black/red volume bars at some of the peaks and troughs to show intra bar price
action. He just needed to add another volume bar or two, but nice job.
Quote from 8833broc:
Real World Chart Confusion example based off of TUMS graphics.
...
At this point I am convinced that I have identified the NEW DOMINATE DOWN CHANNEL.
When I notice a BO of my NEW RED CHANNEL I willing accept that I was wrong and exit my short.
Real World?
Quote from 8833broc:
Real World Chart Confusion example based off of TUMS graphics.
__________________
should the black volume also be increasing in the area "e"?
I wonder, because it led to CCC, so the volume does not need to be increasing?
Tums,
Quote from Tums:
should the black volume also be increasing in the area "e"?
I wonder, because it led to CCC, so the volume does not need to be increasing?
tapes
Spooz
I've been drawing lots and lots of tapes in line with the thread below:-
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&pagenumber=4
2 questions if I may...
1] Does anyone know how to set QuoteTracker so it shows the price scale
properly. There is an option that I've been able to tweak to get the price scale
to 2 points put when I set it the zoom is so far out the bars are unusable as
shown by the screenshot below.
2] If one wants to monitor the ES to try and practice finding the FTT's, is the
only way to do this real-time? Are there any options for monitoring off hours,
like through playback or something with QuoteTracker? I've searched the web (I'm
usually pretty good at ferreting out this kind of thing), but have been unable
to come up with anything. Does this mean everyone who is trying to learn this
method is already trading full-time and thereby able to monitor the ES in
real-time?
Thanks!
Quote from bdolnik:
2] If one wants to monitor the ES to try and practice finding the FTT's, is the only way to do this real-time? Are there any options for monitoring off hours, like through playback or something with QuoteTracker? I've searched the web (I'm usually pretty good at ferreting out this kind of thing), but have been unable to come up with anything. Does this mean everyone who is trying to learn this method is already trading full-time and thereby able to monitor the ES in real-time?
Thanks!
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bdolnik:
[
2] If one wants to monitor the ES to try and practice finding the FTT's, is the only way to do this real-time?
Thanks!
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
If one wants to monitor the ES to try and practice finding the FTT's, is the only way to do this real-time? Are there any options for monitoring off hours, like through playback or something with QuoteTracker? I've searched the web (I'm usually pretty good at ferreting out this kind of thing), but have been unable to come up with anything. Does this mean everyone who is trying to learn this method is already trading full-time and thereby able to monitor the ES in real-time?
Lots of good suggestions, Thanks everyone!
I had actually found the Neoticker one but it was over $1000! I had not thought
about Camtasia that's a good idea, and the Ensign one looks kind of cool. Of
course for tonight I'll try the one 'scroll increment' thing since that's the
cheapest and easiest to try
Thanks again.
Quote from bdolnik:
Lots of good suggestions, Thanks everyone!
I had actually found the Neoticker one but it was over $1000! I had not thought about Camtasia that's a good idea, and the Ensign one looks kind of cool. Of course for tonight I'll try the one 'scroll increment' thing since that's the cheapest and easiest to try
Thanks again.
I just watched your video Pr0crast. That's really cool! I can see myself
watching it over and over since it goes so fast. If you put up any more let me
know
Thanks
I am starting to experiment with AmiBroker using IB to collect 5 second ES
and YM bar data. AmiBroker will allow a bar playback of both symbols
simultaneously in their respective 5 and 2 minute charts windows when setup
within a layout.
Using 5 second data the playback step interval can be set to a low of 5 seconds
and up to 1 minute and higher intervals. The playback rate can be set between
0.1 to 5 steps per second. Therefore the slowest playback in my data collection
scenario will be one half of real time up to as fast as I want as the chart bars
develop in 5 second data steps. (there should be a way to get this down to 1
second bar collection but I don't see how to do this yet).
A cool feature is that it automatically pauses the playback when you annotate.
I have been using this successfully with 1 minute bar data which is obviously a
compromise, but still a good drill. I will report back after today's data
collection and testing.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Funny you should mention this. Lately, I have been recording the market day with camtasia and speeding it up for "practice."
1. Record the entire day (even if you are absent for part of it) into a camtasia file, around 6 hours long and 700 megabytes.
2. Use a freeware program called Virtualdub to open the file.
3. Start camtasia recording your screen again.
4. Press and hold ALT and the right arrow on your keyboard to play the day in fast forward.
5. After 10 minutes or so, the day should be done. Stop recording and you have your first market "fastplay" video, clocking in at under 20 megabytes.
An example can be found here. I have shown this video to a couple people who are trying to learn to spot the FTT, and both seemed to have multiple "aha" moments as a consequence of watching and rewatching the video.
If this one helps you, try making the videos yourself.
Can someone with good channel drawing skills please explain how we get our first channel today? I am so lost when I dont have carry over channels in play. For some reason, I have the hardest time starting the day off right on a day like today. Tia.
there are 3 carry over channels since last week, YM from 8:30-9:30 indicated
open down so I picked red channel and carry on from there. Note: this is
unofficial ver.
I hope you do not take offense to this NK, but I have noticed that your carry
over channels arent right a good deal of the time (after reading through this
thread). I took a look at your attachment though, not too sure about it. It
seems you and I are still very new to this
Would someone like Spyder, Mak, Procrast etc care to shed some light on the
opening channel from today, and if you have a carry over channel in play, would
you mind explaining that as well. Thanks guys!!
CC
Quote from nkhoi:
there are 3 carry over channels since last week, YM from 8:30-9:30 indicated open down so I picked red channel and carry on from there. Note: this is unofficial ver.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Funny you should mention this. Lately, I have been recording the market day with camtasia and speeding it up for "practice."
1. Record the entire day (even if you are absent for part of it) into a camtasia file, around 6 hours long and 700 megabytes.
2. Use a freeware program called Virtualdub to open the file.
3. Start camtasia recording your screen again.
4. Press and hold ALT and the right arrow on your keyboard to play the day in fast forward.
5. After 10 minutes or so, the day should be done. Stop recording and you have your first market "fastplay" video, clocking in at under 20 megabytes.
An example can be found here. I have shown this video to a couple people who are trying to learn to spot the FTT, and both seemed to have multiple "aha" moments as a consequence of watching and rewatching the video.
If this one helps you, try making the videos yourself.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from Cocaine:
Would someone like Spyder, Mak, Procrast etc care to shed some light on the opening channel from today, and if you have a carry over channel in play, would you mind explaining that as well. Thanks guys!!
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
See attached. I created the 'burnt red' down channel using Thursday's 15:40 bar and Friday's 16:10 bar for Points One and Three. Point two fell at the Friday 10:05 bar. As such, today's low created a small volatility expansion and an FTT. More importantly, today's dominant channels (orange and green) have marked this carryover channel nearly perfectly all morning.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
I think what is screwing me up so much is I have data from yesterday from
9:30-11:25 for some reason. This makes everything out of whack. Does anyone else
who uses esignal have this? Do you know how to get rid of these holiday charts?
I assume for holidays, we block out that data and just work from the previous
full trading day (as long as that holiday nothing really happened)?
Quote from Spydertrader:
See attached. I created the 'burnt red' down channel using Thursday's 15:40 bar and Friday's 16:10 bar for Points One and Three. Point two fell at the Friday 10:05 bar. As such, today's low created a small volatility expansion and an FTT. More importantly, today's dominant channels (orange and green) have marked this carryover channel nearly perfectly all morning.
- Spydertrader
Am having the same issue as CC. Mak, I know you use esignal...do you have any
advice about the aforementioned issue? Also, do you know how to set the scale to
2 pts? I have tried and tried but cant find a way to do it. I am technologically
challenged
with the carry over down channel the bottom boundary was clearly defined for
bottom trader to take advantage of it. And the gentle slope the down channel
help trader to steer away from this is it!market going to crash mentality
I agree, but I couldnt draw my channel correctly b/c I have data from
yesterday which stretches out my chart and makes my channels "inaccurate". I am
glad someone else brought it up b/c I noticed this issue too.
Quote from nkhoi:
with the carry over down channel the bottom boundary was clearly defined for bottom trader to take advantage of it. And the gentle slope the down channel help trader to steer away from this is it!market going to crash mentality
a fun little FTT...
Quote from Lightbody:
Thanks for posting the chart. I guess I am missing something.
That is how is the orange FTT and green FTT are FTTs.
The orange fully traversed the tape. then we had a B2B on the volume afterwards. Does the B2B make this orange FTT an FTT after the fact?
The green FTT s are labled on expansions of the LTL. Obviously, they fully traversed. (they are not in the green carry over channel.
Perhaps I am missing the big picture here.
Thanks.
Quote from Lightbody:
Thanks for posting the chart. I guess I am missing something.
That is how is the orange FTT and green FTT are FTTs.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
See attached with arrows to the actual FTT bars. With respect to the orange FTT, price opened, then continued down before retracing higher. Thus price failed to traverse to the left trend line forming a double bottom with the previous bar. In the green channel, price 'just missed' the left trend lines on the areas marked. Both the 'green' channels FTT's failed to break out - resuming the uptrend.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
I believe was is confusing to me about these recent FTT's is that I thought
an FTT could occur ONLY after price had touched the RTL and then subsequently
failed to retrace to the LTL. In Spyder's orange channel, it appears to me that
price did touch the LTL after pt 3 and then attempted to retrace, though not all
the way to the RTL, before continuing further down. I guess I'm having trouble
grasping this for some reason.
John
Quote from palinuro:
Lightbody,
I don't get the orange FTT either (I don't see a long FTT signal until the move is well underway), but the green ones are similar to those I asked about last week; Spyder and R/R explained it here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&pagenumber=204
HTH
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from Lightbody:
I have never used camtasia. Can one get a free program or do we have to buy it? I assume there are different ones to record the screen?
Thanks
Date : 20 FEB 2007 16:48:06 GMT
Subject : Bulletin: U.S. stocks erase Tuesday declines, pushing Dow industrials
to all-time high.
a daily B2B?
Quote from nkhoi:
Date : 20 FEB 2007 16:48:06 GMT
Subject : Bulletin: U.S. stocks erase Tuesday declines, pushing Dow industrials to all-time high.
a daily B2B?
Quote from Pr0crast:
Camtasia
http://www.techsmith.com/download/default.asp
30 day free trial. I think it costs $40. For screen recording.
Virtualdub
http://virtualdub.sourceforge.net/
Open source, free. For video editing.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Would you mind elaborating on this statement a little? How do you look at
price and see this exactly? Thanks pro.
Quote from Pr0crast:
I don't believe you can call that last bar "increasing black" when if you look at price, you can see that a significant portion of that bars volume had to be red. It's a split bar.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Would you mind elaborating on this statement a little? How do you look at price and see this exactly? Thanks pro.
Thanks Pr0crast, that makes sense. Kinda what I thought you meant but wasnt
sure enough to not ask a ques
ES 20 Feb 07
2up, 1 down channel for tomorrow
Does anyone care to comment on DKM's chart, specifically the "WTF" and how we
identify them as not being FTT's as fast as we can at the forest level? Tia.
Quote from dkm:
ES 20 Feb 07
Quote from Cocaine:
Can someone with good channel drawing skills please explain how we get our first channel today? I am so lost when I dont have carry over channels in play. For some reason, I have the hardest time starting the day off right on a day like today. Tia.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
my chart
Here is my chart, my aim right now is to become an expert in drawing channels
and tapes, the rest will follow. Thank you everyone for all the help behind the
scenes.
Have a good day!
Quote from Cocaine:
Does anyone care to comment on DKM's chart, specifically the "WTF" and how we identify them as not being FTT's as fast as we can at the forest level? Tia.
Quote from Spydertrader:
See attached. I created the 'burnt red' down channel using Thursday's 15:40 bar and Friday's 16:10 bar for Points One and Three. Point two fell at the Friday 10:05 bar. As such, today's low created a small volatility expansion and an FTT. More importantly, today's dominant channels (orange and green) have marked this carryover channel nearly perfectly all morning.
- Spydertrader
Does anyone care to comment on DKM's chart, specifically the "WTF" and how we identify them as not being FTT's as fast as we can at the forest level? Tia.
.
Questions
Quote from ivob:
This orange channel I really couldn't see with all imagination possible. What makes you decide to connect Friday's 16:10 bar with todays fifth bar instead of connecting today's second bar with the fifth bar which seems much more logical to me at that moment.
Quote from ivob:
Also I find drawing the first channel (or "getting in the market") the hardest of the day.
__________________
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart
Afternoon annotated in 'hindsight' due to offline commitments.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
Afternoon also annotated in hindsight same as the above ES chart.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from Cocaine:
Does anyone care to comment on DKM's chart, specifically the "WTF" and how we identify them as not being FTT's as fast as we can at the forest level? Tia.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
I recommend asking DKM at what point he decided the WTF was a WTF and not an FTT.
If you are on the Forest Level, you don't care about WTF's as price has yet to leave the right side of the channel. If one is on the tree level, then in real time, these WTF's look no different than FTT's. Only in hindsight (or in the case of flaws, at the next bar [or two]), do WTF's differ from FTT's. Remember, FTT's mark a change in sentiment. They are not the only signal of change. Again, In real time, FTT's often differ little from David's WTF's.
Determine which resolution level best suits your experience level and psychological make up. Stick to that level, and while monitoring there, 'peak over the hill' every so often to learn to 'see' what comes next.
- Spydertrader
Quote from R/R:
I am starting to experiment with AmiBroker using IB to collect 5 second ES and YM bar data. AmiBroker will allow a bar playback of both symbols simultaneously in their respective 5 and 2 minute charts windows when setup within a layout.
Using 5 second data the playback step interval can be set to a low of 5 seconds and up to 1 minute and higher intervals. The playback rate can be set between 0.1 to 5 steps per second. Therefore the slowest playback in my data collection scenario will be one half of real time up to as fast as I want as the chart bars develop in 5 second data steps. (there should be a way to get this down to 1 second bar collection but I don't see how to do this yet).
A cool feature is that it automatically pauses the playback when you annotate.
I have been using this successfully with 1 minute bar data which is obviously a compromise, but still a good drill. I will report back after today's data collection and testing.
one more vid:
2007-02-20.ES.YM.fastplay-Eric.avi
Quote from Spydertrader:
...If you are on the Forest Level, you don't care about WTF's as price has yet to leave the right side of the channel.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
I recommend asking DKM at what point he decided the WTF was a WTF and not an FTT...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Questions
Quote from mephistoII:
Thank you for any clarifications ...
Quote from Spydertrader:
Determine which resolution level best suits your experience level and psychological make up. Stick to that level, and while monitoring there, 'peak over the hill' every so often to learn to 'see' what comes next.
__________________
Forest vs Trees
Quote from mephistoII:
No doubt I have overlooked something this month, but I also have a question which somewhat parallels the above ideas. I was under the impression that as time passed, we would be continually 'fine tuning' our approach, so I need to ask why the emphasis lately seems to be on pulling back to the forest level.
__________________
Re: Questions
Quote from Spydertrader:
Do you find yourself trading live at the Forest Level Resolution? or, Do you find yourself among the trees using the YM to learn to catch an FTT sooner?
- Spydertrader
Quote from Jander:
I noticed that alot of flaws and WTF's are inside bars in relation to the previous one as well. This is not a rule per se, but I am usually hesitant about ftt's that are inside bars
Re: Questions
Quote from Spydertrader:
Forests contain Trees, and Trees have Limbs and Leaves. In the same fashion, we build our larger channels from 'legs' which traverse across the trend. Since the 'burnt red' carryover channel had a 'Point Three' on the previous day final bar, I chose to begin my next day channel from that very point. I began a 'taped' channel from that point as well using the final bar of the lateral as my Point Three for the orange channel.
I too had this difficulty until I started to draw carryover channels in an effort to set the context for the next day. Once you get beyond this small hurdle the opening few bars will no longer present a problem for you.
- Spydertrader
Hi,
I would like to share an observation.
When drawing channels we first draw the right trendline (RTL) then we clone it
and place it on the other side of the channel and we use the farthest point away
between the points we used for RTL (point 1 and point 2).
Today I was wathing eurodollar futures and the trend was down (or we should say
dominant traverse was from right to left). But then I saw 4 point exactly lining
up and I decided to draw a line thru it. A Left trendline. Then I cloned this
line to the other side of the channel using the point farthest away before the
down channel started. What happend is that price went exactly to RTL at 6 am.
Do you understand what I am saying? I end up with the same result as when I had
drawn RTL first and LTL after that but in this case I did it the other way
around almost instinctively in an effort to "forecast" how far the 5:55
volatility expansion would go.
Am I completely making this up or is this something useful and part of the
Hershey method and we are still going to learn about it? It's something I
observe regularly BTW.
regards.
Ivo
Re: Re: Questions
Quote from ivob:
Also I have noticed that often not very long after volatility expansion there's a FTT and / or break of RTL. Could you pls comment on this observation? Have you found the same?
__________________
What is pro rata volume and how is it used? Thanks!
Quote from ivob:
Hi,
I would like to share an observation.
When drawing channels we first draw the right trendline (RTL) then we clone it and place it on the other side of the channel and we use the farthest point away between the points we used for RTL (point 1 and point 2).
Today I was wathing eurodollar futures and the trend was down (or we should say dominant traverse was from right to left). But then I saw 4 point exactly lining up and I decided to draw a line thru it. A Left trendline. Then I cloned this line to the other side of the channel using the point farthest away before the down channel started. What happened is that price went exactly to RTL at 6 am.
Do you understand what I am saying? I end up with the same result as when I had drawn RTL first and LTL after that but in this case I did it the other way around almost instinctively in an effort to "forecast" how far the 5:55 volatility expansion would go.
Am I completely making this up or is this something useful and part of the Hershey method and we are still going to learn about it? It's something I observe regularly BTW.
regards.
Ivo
Quote from Cocaine:
What is pro rata volume and how is it used? Thanks!
Oh, hehe, I did know what is was. Yes I use it already
I was thinking back to what was discussed when Nkhoi brought up a "B2B" on the
daily and you mentioned that it may be a black bar but its a split bar based on
the way the bar formed. I guess I confused PRV with "purity" of the bar
Quote from Pr0crast:
Caine, you got this far in the thread without knowing what PRV is? Hehe... it's just calculating what volume will be by the end of the bar. So if one bar is 100, and you are halfway through the next bar and it's already at 75, you can anticipate that it will close at a higher volume than 100.
ES 21 Feb 07
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
This place has been dead lately! Maybe this will get some discussion going--
a zip file of some of today's FTTs screencapped when I caught them.
Comments/questions/criticism?
For me, I became better at anticipating / identifying FTTs when I set aside
the entry-exit mindset and instead just focussed on the process.
It wasn't easy, getting rid of the thought process that went "OK, is this an FTT
@ 1450.50, if so an entry at this point looks good for 3+ points, but then where
should I set my stop, what is the profit target, is price stalling now, should
one exit now or hold on ..."
But once I started to equate excellence for Feb2007 = simply
observing/anticipating the gyrations of the ES using channels + volume WITHOUT
any entry-exit pressure, then the whole activity suddenly became easier and more
fluid. My ability to see and understand the PV relationship became better.
Just my experience, if this is not the right track then Spyder/MAK please feel
free to correct.
Quote from KK70:
For me, I became better at anticipating / identifying FTTs when I set aside the entry-exit mindset and instead just focussed on the process.
It wasn't easy, getting rid of the thought process that went "OK, is this an FTT @ 1450.50, if so an entry at this point looks good for 3+ points, but then where should I set my stop, what is the profit target, is price stalling now, should one exit now or hold on ..."
But once I started to equate excellence for Feb2007 = simply observing/anticipating the gyrations of the ES using channels + volume WITHOUT any entry-exit pressure, then the whole activity suddenly became easier and more fluid. My ability to see and understand the PV relationship became better.
Just my experience, if this is not the right track then Spyder/MAK please feel free to correct.
Its funny you bring this up, I was discussing this same exact topic with a
buddy yesterday. Shaking the whole entry/exit mentality and the benefits of just
being on "the right side" of the market. It DOES make things much easier and
more fluid. I completely agree.
Quote from KK70:
For me, I became better at anticipating / identifying FTTs when I set aside the entry-exit mindset and instead just focussed on the process.
It wasn't easy, getting rid of the thought process that went "OK, is this an FTT @ 1450.50, if so an entry at this point looks good for 3+ points, but then where should I set my stop, what is the profit target, is price stalling now, should one exit now or hold on ..."
But once I started to equate excellence for Feb2007 = simply observing/anticipating the gyrations of the ES using channels + volume WITHOUT any entry-exit pressure, then the whole activity suddenly became easier and more fluid. My ability to see and understand the PV relationship became better.
Just my experience, if this is not the right track then Spyder/MAK please feel free to correct.
Quote from Pr0crast:
This place has been dead lately! Maybe this will get some discussion going-- a zip file of some of today's FTTs screencapped when I caught them.
Comments/questions/criticism?
Attachment: 2-21.zip
This has been downloaded 64851 time(s).
Quote from Tums:
Congratulations on the times downloaded !
I have been reading like mad trying to catch up, but it seems there are lots of diversions and references to other pages, which led to other pages...
Morning
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Morning 2
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Morning 3
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Morning 4
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Morning 5
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Morning 6
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Morning 7
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Morning 8
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Spyder,
These play-by-play charts are really helpful, especially to see the gaussian
volume patterns develop. Thanks.
Morning 9
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Spotted the FTT at the 10:30 bar, took the strong b2b prv at 10:55 as an
indication of pt 3 on 10:50bar , went long 61.50 and ran straight into the FTT
on the 10:55 bar. Low red prv on the 11:00 bar convinced me to hold (still
inside channel), and then exited at the close of the 11:00 bar, 2 tics outside
the RTL. -1.5
Waited for the pt 3 to short but it didn't appear.
Re: Morning 9
[QUOTE]Quote from Spydertrader:
Thanks for the charts. fortunately for me today, I told myself to follow the
rules. Therefore, my chart is very close to yours but, do to my own neglect, I
identified a couple of FTT s a few minutes late. Still, in time to be on the
right side of the forest.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Morning 10
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Re: Morning 4
Quote from Spydertrader:
Morning 11
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Re: Re: Morning 4
Quote from Tums:
Also, how do you define the first R of the R2R?
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This a bit off topic at this point but I thought maybe someone here could help me that is proficient with Excel. I want to create a running histogram of the spread between YM and INDU similiar to the one some of you Tradestation users have. I am trying to learn excel and I dont think this should be all that difficult but am hoping someone can put me on the fast track.
Morning 12
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Morning 13
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Morning 14
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Today's ES Chart
ES Full Day Chart
- Spydertrader
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Today's YM Chart
YM Full Day Chart
- Spydertrader
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ES 22 Feb 07
Trying to improve anticipation of each pt 3.
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
ES Full Day Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
First FTT of the red channel, why is this an FTT? Shouldn't price touch the right TL first and then fail to traverse to LTL before it's an FTT? I don't understand this..
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Morning 4
Quote from Spydertrader:
Try to 'see' two different Gaussian formations at work here. One involves the Green Up Trend Channel as price 'retraces', then reverses at the Green RTL (\/- R2R) - a big picture view (blue arrows). The second Gaussian formation within this larger picture involves the red channel (circles and highlights). Since the red channel already has a 'Point Three' we look for continuation with increasing red volume and retraces with decreasing black. The red channel Gaussians exist within the bigger picture.
Note the attached 'zoomed' view. Can you 'see' the market signals now?
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Price did touch the red trend line - back at Point Three (10:00 AM Eastern Time). From that point forward, we have continuation (next bar), a failed retrace (black bar), volatility expansion, a High Volatility Stall (HVS) until price Fails to Traverse to the left trend line.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Morning 4
Quote from ivob:
Hi, this is obvious in hindsight but at the moment quite hard to determine IMO. (not the easiest move). You need to wait for the second red bar to finish before you find out it's not just a retracement but a reversal. When you have point 3, we still don't know this or do you?
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Re: Re: Re: Morning 4
Quote from Spydertrader:
Try to 'see' two different Gaussian formations at work here. One involves the Green Up Trend Channel as price 'retraces', then reverses at the Green RTL (\/- R2R) - a big picture view (blue arrows). The second Gaussian formation within this larger picture involves the red channel (circles and highlights). Since the red channel already has a 'Point Three' we look for continuation with increasing red volume and retraces with decreasing black. The red channel Gaussians exist within the bigger picture.
Note the attached 'zoomed' view. Can you 'see' the market signals now?
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Morning 4
Quote from Spydertrader:
The premise of your question is incorrect. We don't see the reversal until price breaks through the RTL of the Green Up Channel long after the point to which you refer. What we do have within our Red Down Channel is continuation (increasing red Volume) on a finer resolution level. As to waiting for the bar to close in order to determine continuation, we can and do see it develop in real time. As to the increasing red volume showing continuation in a down channel, we have a Point Three and we (on a PRV basis) see increasing red volume. What more does one need to know?
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Morning 4
Quote from ivob:
Of course you are right about the reversal. So which red bar are you referring to when you are talking about increasing red volume on a finer resolution? Did you see it when the second red bar was developing somewhere halfway or in the first one?
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Zoom YM
.
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Quote from Bearbelly:
This a bit off topic at this point but I thought maybe someone here could help me that is proficient with Excel. I want to create a running histogram of the spread between YM and INDU similiar to the one some of you Tradestation users have. I am trying to learn excel and I dont think this should be all that difficult but am hoping someone can put me on the fast track.
Spyder,
I remember you saying that if there is no sentiment change overnight, then you
often resume your position from the previous day. Of course, this is assuming
that we are beyond "forest" level, so those of you who are not, ignore this...
Anyway, at the end of yesterday at 16:00 there was an FTT, are you going to
start the day off short, since you would be short right now if the day had not
ended?
Thanks
Sentiment Change?
Quote from Pr0crast:
Anyway, at the end of yesterday at 16:00 there was an FTT, are you going to start the day off short, since you would be short right now if the day had not ended?
__________________
More DAX
I'm starting to scare myself.
Ftts
I'm starting to scare myself.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Keep the good work up! It's encouraging to see people "getting" there!
Good trading to all.
Quote from PointOne:
Hi Bearbelly
Mak's excellent Excel PRV tool does this.
I've noticed that there are a lot of questions re. PRV. For me it was a pain to calculate PRV without the right tools - it was, shall we say, CPU intensive. I've been using Mak's PRV tool for a couple of months and it frees your mind to stay on the big picture. Invaluable. I don't think I could trade without it now. Others have the bouncing ball (TS) - if someone develops this for Quotetracker I'd be very grateful.
It doesnt sound like you are following the syllabus
Quote from Bearbelly:
Hi Point One.
I agree. Maks prv tool is priceless and I have been using it since coming across it a couple of months ago. I also have been playing with his Str/squ app. It works ok but I find it hard to monitor real time and think a histogram would suit my purposes better. The info is there in the app, its just a matter of converting it to a histogram but I havent figured out how to do it yet.
What has been covered so far is very clear to me. I dont think Im the only
one peeking into the future.
mid day report, down trend cont.
PRV Tool
Quote from Bearbelly:
I agree. Maks prv tool is priceless
__________________
Re: PRV Tool
Quote from Spydertrader:
Perhaps, you could repost a link to the post / tool to make it easier for others to download?
Thanks.
- Spydertrader
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I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Heres the original PRV
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&pagenumber=374
is this default set up for interactive brokers?
Quote from Jander:
is this default set up for interactive brokers?
Quote from Bearbelly:
No it is not. If you continue on a few more pages you will find the IB updated version where all you have to do is put in your id.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Here is a copy I have reduced down to its simplest form, just two columns. The rest is hidden to save space. This is IB version.
Disable macros, then enter id on syntax page, save and reopen enabling macros. Of course you have to change the contract at rollover.
ES 23 Feb 07
Quote from Tums:
Amazing! Who wrote this? A big thanks to you.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Your quite welcome but all thanks go to Mak.
Oh crap, I opened that PRV and put my user name in and saved changes. Now my
IB acct is all f-up. I'm an idiot
Can anyone help me reverse these effects?
Cant imagine why that would screw up your IB account. The worse that could happen if something is not correct is that the excel wouldnt function.
Well, what I mean is that I have my booktrader up and the current ES contract
now shows up with the wrong price (the prices showing are like 1.00, 2.00 3.00
etc). Do you have any idea how I can get it back to the way it was? Any help
would be MUCH appreciated (damn I wish I paid attention in Compsci in college!)
Quote from Bearbelly:
Cant imagine why that would screw up your IB account. The worse that could happen if something is not correct is that the excel wouldnt function.
I just got a pm telling me that I left some personal info on the xl app. PLease do not download it. I apologize profusely if I caused Steves problem. Moderator please delete that post asap.
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
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Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
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Its my fault, I should know better than to download something I know nothing
about.
I searched my computer using the keyword "PRV" and found a document that was
dated 2/23/2007. I put it in the recycle bin and emptied it hoping that would
solve the issue but my BookTrader quotes are still wrong.
Does anyone know how I can get my acct back to the way it was before the
download? I'm hoping its not hard to fix but I havent the faintest idea of where
to begin.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I just got a pm telling me that I left some personal info on the xl app. PLease do not download it. I apologize profusely if I caused Steves problem. Moderator please delete that post asap.
Strange problem steve. I can't think of anything an excel sheet could do to
screw up TWS like that. I have run the original PRV sheets posted by MAK in the
other thread and they've never caused problems like that. They are cpu intensive
and I need to run them on my fastest computer.
Common sense- but I would close the book trader window and try a full restart of
everything. After that maybe uninstall and reinstall TWS. Only takes a few
minutes to do and I would guess that should fix any problems.
Good luck.
I'm a huge fan of Mak's Excel-based tools. There is a LOT of discussion in
the older threads regarding the usage of these tools. I for one, hope that Mak
will discuss his "Abstract" STR/SQU at the appropriate (future) time. No hurry
for me.
I used his combined sheet extensively late last year on what I consider to be a
low-end PC (AMD 64 3800+, single core, 512 MB RAM). Using Excel 2000, i could
run his sheet, along with TWS, and I don't recall the CPU being pushed at all.
Having said that, I asked Spyder one day which PRV tool he uses and he said
something like "nothing, my brain" (correct me if I'm wrong Spyder). So, I've
spent this month using "manual" PRV. In the past, I was hyper about wanting to
create/use cool PRV tools. But now, I'm more relaxed. Granted, I'm not precise,
but I think I have a good "feel" for pace changes. I may incorporate a PRV tool
again at some point but I feel the experience NOT using an automated tool has
been helpful, at least for me.
FWIW,
spooz
Quote from spooz_trader1:
I'm a huge fan of Mak's Excel-based tools. There is a LOT of discussion in the older threads regarding the usage of these tools. I for one, hope that Mak will discuss his "Abstract" STR/SQU at the appropriate (future) time.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from makosgu:
we'll get there... right spy???
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes we will
- Spydertrader
I have no doubt that doing prv manually is fine as Jack has done it for years but I cannot count the times that maks tool has alerted me to something going on which I might not have noticed ordinarily. Afternoon breakouts for one.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I have no doubt that doing prv manually is fine as Jack has done it for years but I cannot count the times that maks tool has alerted me to something going on which I might not have noticed ordinarily. Afternoon breakouts for one.
In case anyone missed it ....
The following post came from Jack (in another thread) ....
- Spydertrader
#############
whitster,
Your response to the poster was very thoughtful.
I saved the poster's contribution in word because it was a complex and unique
compilation or summation. I had never seen that combination of elements as a
descriptor of markets and their trading.
Retail doesn't affect markets as you say. For me, it is possible that
institution vs. institution is more what is going on than institution vs.
retail.
We do see a few institutions beating the "averages" and most not. Retail
probably evens it up as retail probably is all over the place and mostly giving
to institutions rather than each other.
The T&S and the DOM depict the "show".
I am rarely active (20 to 40 moments in a day) and when I am, I use TA to give
me leading indicators of price and I am front running "smart money" by choice.
In terms of Michael Kahn of Barron's Online, I am acting on his "warnings". This
is a half cycle ahead of the bulk of the market "reversals" and definitely ahead
of smart money and the institution parts of the herd.
Retail never affects the market in the first place and the "minority" of the
sides the institutions are taking in the PRESENT always controls by the absence
of either supply or demand.
The full range of profitable retail strategies, revealed or not, are
insignificant in the flow of contracts in the market.
Quants trade the anomalies of "noise" and may be just considered the "echoes"
largely of the noise.
One of the paths from novice to expert that keys off the market's principles
only, demonstrates that low risk high profit parts of the markets are the place
to begin. Any intemperate timing performance here leads to additional small
profits when corrections are applied. Having the anti whipsaw down as a novice
is a terrific arrow for the quiver.
Intermediate trading within the low risk high profit part of days, simply allows
the intermediate to "step out" of low risk high profit times into the moderate
risk moderate profit periods that follow.
Here a combination of effectiveness and efficiency are at play. More is made
(efficiency during low risk high profit periods and the additional time after
these periods is captured as new trading opportunity (effectiveness of being in
the market on the right side for a greater portion of the day).
The rest of the market day can be done when a level of expertise is attained,
since it is just a case of adding another level of sensitivity to institutional
plays at that time.
More and more, the institutions tend to "telegraph". These leading indicators of
price add more and more comfort to the trader's operations during the day.
It comes down to getting equipped to trade more and more of the time in a series
of steps that allow the trader to participate according to two curves of
consideration as a function of time in the market.
One curve is the risk curve and the other is the profits available curve.
On the left the curves are separated to an extreme. Risk is low and
profitability is at it's peak. One moves asymptotically to zero (profitability)
and the other moves asymptotically to total on the right. At the right they are
again separated in the extreme. extremely high risk and absurdly low
profitability.
A person must learn by going from the left to the right. It IS the definition of
building upon success.
Measuring the market at any time is the product of four repeated steps. A
process of reaching closure repeatedly and adroitly.
At all times a trader must know three things: price change, the right side of
the market and that he is in the trade on that side.
It is dealing with NOW and the screens displays. Collecting data sets that are
SUFFICIENT; KNOWING the conclusion (CONTINUE OR CHANGE) that the data set
depicts; being able to DECIDE using the specific conclusion; and acting then and
there to bring closure to the routine's cycle.
Having a display and an account is easy.
Collecting data sets properly and sufficiently takes experience and a proper
sweeping of the screens.
KNOWING the conclusion is ordinarily a weakness because a routine is not being
used to build the mind so it contains the finite conclusion set required.
This acquisition is not understood in ET. for some reason people focus on rules
and not on acquiring a quality conclusion set. It appears that there is a
continuous quest to acquire rules even though people are told over and over that
collecting rules is not going to be a workable way to become skilled in trading.
Becoming skilled in trading is a direct consequence of performing a process.
Quality conclusion sets are written up in the Wizard books in a very subtle way.
They are also written up in processes done by people who are working. Drills
give people conclusion sets as a consequence of doing drills.
At first, a person does the conclusions for low risk high profit parts of the
risk/profit chart. This is a coarse level of conclusions which are then
subtended for the rest of the person's life. We plant seedlings in a pattern; a
forest to have a forest in place.
Making rules instead of building a forest; gives a person an inaccessible set of
rules whose application is not possible when the demand is made.
Collecting data sets over and over and over....leads to conclusions for the data
sets as the CONSEQUENCES OF THE DATA SETS IS REALIZED. This is a mental drill.
It is done in the context of the variables of the data set. Work is done to
always have the context ANNOTATED as a drill. By making a context and realizing
what is going on in the context a person is "batting" in the ball park.
Mentoring is teaching people how to bat on the playing field. Rules are just the
ball park on the other hand.
Pick up the bat. Swing it. Learn to hit a fast ball. Learn to hit a curve ball.
Learn to stand there when a "ball" is pitched. Learn to only swing at strikes
that can get you on base.
Big Leaguers know how to hit to stay on the team.
When a batter can read the pitch, he can decide at all times during the trading
day, just what to do each and every moment of he day.
This is the third equities journal. There are 8 months of batting practice
coming up on the futures this year. All are daily batting practice to go through
the process of trading price change by being in the market all of the time and
being on the right side of the market all of the time.
Little league, JV, Varsity, AA, AAA big leagues. What you get is what you put
into it. When you work you get a complete conclusion set that can be paired with
ANY dataset at
ANY time on ANY fractal in ANY market.
The market is always right. The smart money telegraphs to everyone who wants to
SEE. There are 17 leading indicators of the price that is traded. All these
indicators may be collected in a four part routine.
The financial industry traditions where the conventional orthodoxy originated
largely prevents people from choosing to make money.
Try putting a conclusion from a data set in your mind. It is blocked by fear,
anxiety and anger...... it cannot become even provisional when using a paradigm
based upon gaming and probabilities. The only thing that can get inside are
rules that can be "played".
Think of how hard it is to begin to build a fort (think of fort ticonderoga on
lake George) all the way around the pieces of the conventional orthodoxy. It
ain't going to happen, and furthermore the search for rules will continue
instead.
No one can teach anything. Teaching is not possible it turns out.
But what is possible is doing purposeful work. Working for purposeful goals.
Doing drills following a defined process is possible. What is gotten? Knowledge,
skills and experience.
BE DO HAVE.
Decide to BE. In a moment, you ARE. You BE.
The mind is a wonderful thing. It is unmatched anywhere.
I'm only 74 and still growing my mind.
I trade with sports memory. It is very humorous to watch. The great traders you
have never met are so skilled that they are great and all that goes with that.
The PhD's here in ET are getting there and doing what I wrote above.
Certainly they know by now that their prints are not possible to post.
What if this post was able to affect a person? What would begin to happen?
Well maybe the person could draw with a crayola on a chart the zigs and zags of
100 separate days.
What would that do to open his mind during the crayola period.
What doing a drill to learn how much money the market offers every day, day
after day, do to a person's mind?
It is conceivable to me that the 10,000 conscious bits of info per second that
he perceived might do something. he would also learn how many charts a crayola
can do.
What about the 20,000,000 bits per second that went into his subconscious. This
is called crayola payoff.
I have in a single crayola stroke wrecked his mind for doing the conventional
orthodoxy forever.
A person cannot sleep without subconsciously seeing all that money being zig
zagged into a trading account. Baskets full at 50 contracts a zig or zag.
The subconscious cannot deny the making of money. It just does it.
Mak's expression for life is that, with respect to money, "it" is never EMPTY
form that point on. no matter what time or place he is in he is never going to
experience "empty". Money is always there to be made with money....more than
ever imaginable.
It is there... use the crayola backtest.
crayolas say:
All price change makes money
Be in the market
Collect each segment of profits by staying on the right side of the market at
all times.
Crayolas were invented for doing A B C's.
#############
__________________
Great post, considering the hilariously awful thread that came from
Melt down
Quote from Pr0crast:
Great post, considering the hilariously awful thread that came from
A Reminder
Should anyone find a particular post off topic, or believes a specific
contributor fails to provide information pertinent to the discussion, I
encourage liberal (and frequent) use of the ET "Ignore" and "Complain" features
in an effort to respond to inappropriate commentary. Adherence to the above
guidelines should allow for an open and friendly discourse and foster an
environment conducive to learning.
- Spydertrader
__________________
qlink
Here's a basic PRV tool for Qlink, not quite like Mak's but it's something. I
use Mak's PRV sheets with IB as they are first class.
If you scroll down column B on the qlink sheet, you'll see were to change the
contract specs at rollover.
PRV
Does anyone know if or direct me to where, there are these PRV tools for
Esignal and any non-IB users..?
AS we near the end of February I hope this is not off topic.
Seems that these tools are helping others.
Many thx
FilterTip
Re: Jacks post quoted above. I have seen him mention the "17 leading
indicators" a number of times. Can anyone list them? All I can come up with is
twelve.
Second question: what is the highest profit lowest risk trades he speaks of? My
guess would be dominant traverses in a fast paced market.
Re: Today's ES Chart
At 1:50, the ES is traversing in an up channel created from pts 1 (12:45), pt
2 (12:55) and pt 3 (1:15). Everything is going fine until 1:55 where we have a
decent size red bar fully form outside the channel we've created. I assume that,
bc volume wasnt very significant (under 6000 in this case), we just use this
opportunity to lessen the steepness of our original up channel correct (as you
did)? When do you actually draw in the new channel? After the 2:00 bar is almost
complete?
Also, how significant of red volume would you need to see in order for you to
decide that this bar (1:55 bar) is signaling price heading lower as opposed to
what really happened?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Quote from Bearbelly:
Re: Jacks post quoted above. I have seen him mention the "17 leading indicators" a number of times. Can anyone list them? All I can come up with is twelve.
Second question: what is the highest profit lowest risk trades he speaks of? My guess would be dominant traverses in a fast paced market.
Re: PRV
Quote from FilterTip:
Does anyone know if or direct me to where, there are these PRV tools for Esignal and any non-IB users..?
AS we near the end of February I hope this is not off topic.
Seems that these tools are helping others.
Many thx
FilterTip
Quote from PointOne:
No doubt we will be told to stay on syllabus (no problem).
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
At 1:50, the ES is traversing in an up channel created from pts 1 (12:45), pt 2 (12:55) and pt 3 (1:15). Everything is going fine until 1:55 where we have a decent size red bar fully form outside the channel we've created. I assume that, bc volume wasn't very significant (under 6000 in this case), we just use this opportunity to lessen the steepness of our original up channel correct (as you did)? When do you actually draw in the new channel? After the 2:00 bar is almost complete?
Also, how significant of red volume would you need to see in order for you to decide that this bar (1:55 bar) is signaling price heading lower as opposed to what really happened?
__________________
I dont think Mak's original IB PRV excel link ever got posted so here it is:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&pagenumber=417
Apology
For those having some difficulty 'seeing' how the puzzle pieces all fit
together, take a look at
this post. The individual changed his username, but after believing for
quite some time Jack's posts contained nothing but nonsense, he has arrived at
an interesting conclusion ....
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Thanks Spyder, most of what you posted makes perfect sense but...Still kinda
confused with this one thing you commented on b/c I am looking at the YM and
from 14:04-14:05 bar (the extra min we get on the YM before the ES 14:00 bar
closes) and in that one minute I dont see any indication that the YM is going to
move up. at 14:05 the YM is at 12660. Price only breaks upward on the YM around
14:05:25 ish after the 14:05 ES bar has already formed.
PS I think you meant 14:00 bar rather than 16:00
Quote from Spydertrader:
If one cannot 'see' this on the ES, the YM provides ample warning prior to the close of the 16:00 PM bar on the ES (within the 14:04 bar on the YM, price breaks upward). Since the YM leads the ES, one can 'know' in advance that we have a Point Three on the ES.
Re: Apology
Quote from Spydertrader:
For those having some difficulty 'seeing' how the puzzle pieces all fit together, take a look at this post. The individual changed his username, but after believing for quite some time Jack's posts contained nothing but nonsense, he has arrived at an interesting conclusion ....
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
I think you meant 14:00 bar rather than 16:00
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Its not really clear to me why, I can think of several possibilities but none
that are concrete and that I am comfortable with as a reason. I'm not sure why
there is a channel drawn in there to have an FTT. Would you mind explaining?
Thanks ST!
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes. I did mean 14:00 and not 16:00. Thanks for alerting me to the error. Please see the attched YM chart snippet for the area in question. Based on how I have annotated the snippet, can you now see how the YM provides an earlier signal for change?
Hope this helps.
- Spydertrader
Hi Steve-- not sure what you are asking but I'll take a stab.
There is a down channel drawn in there because of the dominant red volume-- it
is clear that at the time, that is the trend.
But notice how there is increasing volume in Spyder's highlighted area (that
little vol spike) and yet price does not reach the established LTL. In fact, it
finishes its attempted traverse and starts heading the other direction. This is
exactly what you would expect from a change in sentiment. ON THAT BAR, you would
be able to label it "FTT" and start looking for your pt.2 and pt.3 of the new,
up channel. When you have a gaussian peak and price still can't get to where it
needs to go, this is the clearest of all FTTs. If it's not clear for you right
now, we will help you to get there.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Would you mind explaining?
__________________
It does, thanks Spyder. I think my confusion stemmed from not fully understanding what to do in regards to the 1:55 ES bar which, in turn, screwed up my analysis of the situation on the YM. A snowball effect I guess. Thanks so much for the step by step breakdown, it gives me good insight into how one needs to approach things.
Quote from Pr0crast:
There is a down channel drawn in there because of the dominant red volume-- it is clear that at the time, that is the trend. But notice how there is increasing volume in Spyder's highlighted area (that little vol spike) and yet price does not reach the established LTL. In fact, it finishes its attempted traverse and starts heading the other direction. This is exactly what you would expect from a change in sentiment. ON THAT BAR, you would be able to label it "FTT" and start looking for your pt.2 and pt.3 of the new, up channel. When you have a gaussian peak and price still can't get to where it needs to go, this is the clearest of all FTTs.
__________________
Concerning Gaussians, I dont seem to understand the bar intervals necessary
to form a Gaussian. On Spy's ES chart from friday, sometimes a Gaussian is form
within 3 bars and sometimes its a lot longer.
Would really like to hear more about gaussians. anyone interested in sharing the
knowledge?
Quote from Cocaine:
Concerning Gaussians, I dont seem to understand the bar intervals necessary to form a Gaussian. On Spy's ES chart from friday, sometimes a Gaussian is form within 3 bars and sometimes its a lot longer.
Would really like to hear more about gaussians. anyone interested in sharing the knowledge?
I guess this is something that becomes more and more clear with time and
experience?
Quote from Pr0crast:
A gaussian peak is just when it goes from increasing volume to decreasing volume. There is no real "rule" or "interval," it's just a visual thing that you see.
Gaussians
Quote from Cocaine:
Would really like to hear more about gaussians. anyone interested in sharing the knowledge?
__________________
Quote from Pr0crast:
Hi Steve-- not sure what you are asking but I'll take a stab.
There is a down channel drawn in there because of the dominant red volume-- it is clear that at the time, that is the trend.
But notice how there is increasing volume in Spyder's highlighted area (that little vol spike) and yet price does not reach the established LTL. In fact, it finishes its attempted traverse and starts heading the other direction. This is exactly what you would expect from a change in sentiment. ON THAT BAR, you would be able to label it "FTT" and start looking for your pt.2 and pt.3 of the new, up channel. When you have a gaussian peak and price still can't get to where it needs to go, this is the clearest of all FTTs. If it's not clear for you right now, we will help you to get there.
Quote from dkm:
How can it be labelled an FTT without SOME indication of what the prv is on the next bar? The fact that a bar with increasing volume does not reach the LTL does not automaticaly make it an FTT, surely?
Quote from dkm:
Although price did not reach the LTL on the bar you describe, what is the indication that the very next bar would not continue on towards the LTL with increasing red volume? How can it be labelled an FTT without SOME indication of what the prv is on the next bar? The fact that a bar with increasing volume does not reach the LTL does not automaticaly make it an FTT, surely?
Quote from PointOne:
So if you are wrong about it, what do you do? I know where I'd rather enter / reverse. Then I seek confirmation that I have one of the best prices available for the coming trend. The range of prices near the FTT are special - either they are the best prices or you can wash if you were wrong.
Quote from dkm:
So you enter/reverse on every bar with peaking volume that does not not reach the LTL? Interesting technique.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Gaussian volume peaking + didnt reach LTL + began moving in the other direction.
Visualize price "bouncing" before it's supposed to. This "bounce" is more
pronounced when there is volume there to back it up (i.e. throwing the
basketball at the wall rather than rolling it lightly). Instead of bouncing off
the wall that is the LTL, it bounced off an imaginary wall. That wall is called
change in sentiment. I've posted a lot of examples of this kind of stuff in both
image and video format over the past 50 or so pages. I suspect especially the
video stuff might help you out dkm.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
So, in this example, the gaussian starts with the first bar of the down tape
channel at 13:54? and ends with the FTT bar at 14:00?
would you have expected price to continue lower if the 14:00 bar had red volume
in excess of the 13:54 bar?
Thanks and sorry I am slooooowww
Quote from Pr0crast:
gaussian volume peaking + didnt reach LTL + began moving in the other direction. visualize price "bouncing" before it's supposed to. Instead of hitting the wall that is the LTL, it hit an imaginary wall. That wall is called change in sentiment. I've posted a lot of examples of this kind of stuff in both image and video format over the past 50 or so pages. I suspect especially the video stuff might help you out dkm.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Pr0crast:
+ began moving in the other direction.
Cocaine:
Try not to make it into a set of rules like "if this volume bar is x amount
higher or lower than a bar 5 bars ago." Try to understand what to look for and
how to know you are looking at an FTT as it happens, and then what to look for
afterwards to confirm the change in sentiment. Watch the vid I just posted ten
times. Look for that sequence of events unfolding every time there is a dominant
traverse.
dkm: textbook example of an ftt bounce
download
In the video I was being a little sluggish, because you could have ID'ed that
FTT ON THE BAR THAT IT HAPPENED (the 12:45 bar). Do you see the "bounce?"
Quote from Pr0crast:
Good question. This is why your eyes should be glued to the screen and be thinking hard about PRV when you label that bar "FTT" as I have described. Sometimes, you will be wrong. In fact, if relying strictly on the ES/YM, I might go so far as to say that if you aren't wrong at least 20-25% of the time, you are waiting TOO LONG to identify the FTT. There will be mistakes made, but as Spyder has talked about over and over, if you make the mistake as early as possible, you will profit or break-even on it. It's the waiting that kills you.
Also, keep in mind that tools added later are sure to make this FTT-identifying process a lot clearer.
Power drift turns
Quote from dkm:
So you enter/reverse on every bar with peaking volume that does not not reach the LTL? Interesting technique.
Re: Power drift turns
Quote from PointOne:
Sometimes the driver gets it wrong and crashes through the barrier in what is termed a volatility expansion. The crowd loves those.
__________________
My ESH07 Chart
Quote from Pr0crast:
Good question. This is why your eyes should be glued to the screen and be thinking hard about PRV when you label that bar "FTT" as I have described. Sometimes, you will be wrong. In fact, if relying strictly on the ES/YM, I might go so far as to say that if you aren't wrong at least 20-25% of the time, you are waiting TOO LONG to identify the FTT. There will be mistakes made, but as Spyder has talked about over and over, if you make the mistake as early as possible, you will profit or break-even on it. It's the waiting that kills you.
Also, keep in mind that tools added later are sure to make this FTT-identifying process a lot clearer.
Re: qlink
Quote from Moz:
Here's a basic PRV tool for Qlink, not quite like Mak's but it's something. I use Mak's PRV sheets with IB as they are first class.
If you scroll down column B on the qlink sheet, you'll see were to change the contract specs at rollover.
Re: Power drift turns
Quote from PointOne:
if you're wrong you know almost immediately and can normally wash if necessary. (I do sometimes pick the bar before the real FTT - I'm working on preventing that happening.)
Re: Re: Power drift turns
Quote from Spydertrader:
Yes we do love those 'volatility expansions' - either in the market or at the track.
- Spydertrader
Can we talk about initial entries? I know Jack says to enter on bar 4 and that Spyder says he does not wait for bar 4. I wait for a point three before my first entry but this often leaves quite a bit on the table but entering on bar 4 did not work too well for me. How are you guys taking the first trade of the day?
Re: Re: Re: Power drift turns
Quote from ivob:
Hi, I asked a question before whether an FTT is possible after a volatility expansion and without price touching RTL. Pls let me know your opinion about this.
regards,
Ivo
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Can we talk about initial entries? I know Jack says to enter on bar 4 and that Spyder says he does not wait for bar 4. I wait for a point three before my first entry but this often leaves quite a bit on the table but entering on bar 4 did not work too well for me. How are you guys taking the first trade of the day?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Power drift turns
Quote from bundlemaker:
The answer to this is a BIG yes. As a matter of fact, this is the usual sequence... Vol. Exp., begin partial move to RTL (sometimes just a few ticks), make another run at the new LTL, and then turn back toward the RTL. That's an FTT.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Power drift turns
Quote from ivob:
Okay. When volatility expansion takes place one could draw a new, faster channel. Then if price does not touch LTL this is an FTT of the new channel.
__________________
Spyder - in my mind, the most difficult aspect of learning this methodology
(to date, at least) hinges on the correct identification of the gaussian
formations. I have a question concerning your recent snippet provided for ivob.
If I am interpreting your annotations correctly, are you labeling the sequence
of bars from 10:25-10:40 as red?
I would invariably label this as an ascending black (green). The first maroon
arrow which is shown I would've "forced" to be a descending black, in order to
correspond with the price reversal off the 10:15 bar low ( that is, I would want
to see a B\/B). And this leads to another question: while viewing realtime,
should a person keep in mind the "majority color" of a bar? In other words, if
the formation of the bar is predominantly black (say, the first four minutes) ,
but then changes color toward the end of the period, would you be inclined to
use the majority color in your gaussian determination?
When considering the R2R which you mentioned, I would need to use the 10:40 -
10:50 bars for the ( R\ ) and the 10:50 -10:55 for the ( /R ) Is this correct -
if so, it doesn't seem to jive with the "maroon arrows"?
Sorry for these somewhat tortuous questions, and tia for any comments
Quote from mephistoII:
Sorry for these somewhat tortuous questions, and tia for any comments
__________________
Thank you, sir - that does look a bit more pleasing to the eye
Re: Re: Re: Power drift turns
Quote from ivob:
Hi, I asked a question before whether an FTT is possible after a volatility expansion and without price touching RTL. Pls let me know your opinion about this.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from bundlemaker:
While I'm not trading at this point, I think I can help. THe safest thing at the beginner level is to wait for a forest level FTT and enter on that FTT. Obviously, that could mean waiting for sometime.
Ah, patience is a delicious fruit
Quote from Bearbelly:
Entering on an ftt is not much different from entering on a break of bar 4.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Both of these entries have a high probability of failing which, to me, is not the best scenario for a new trader.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Sooner or later we have to start trading and what I would like to know is what is the safest entry, the low risk, high reward trade that Jack talks about.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Where does the newbie enter?
Quote from Bearbelly:
You can sim until the cows come home but when the s**t hits the fan decisions become a bit more difficult.
__________________
I hope I get to where you are one of these days. My concern is that reversing
and washes take practice and I would think you would have to be fairly
proficient at these to start entering on ftts and practice can be costly if
youre not a quick study. I do wait for a point three which I have found to be
the safest for me so far. I have also found that if point two is the high or low
of the day it helps.
p.s. perhaps high probability of reversing would have been a better choice of
words than high probability of failing.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I hope I get to where you are one of these days. My concern is that reversing and washes take practice and I would think you would have to be fairly proficient at these to start entering on ftts and practice can be costly if youre not a quick study. I do wait for a point three which I have found to be the safest for me so far. I have also found that if point two is the high or low of the day it helps.
p.s. perhaps high probability of reversing would have been a better choice of words than high probability of failing.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from Spydertrader:
In all three scenarios, price moved in the opposite direction from the previous trend.
I know I keep repeating this but, the market provides signals of continuation and signals for change. There are no 'safe' or 'unsafe' entry. One is either on the right side of the market or not. If on the right side of the market, one simply needs to monitor for the next change signal in order to take action. If one is not on the right side of the market, then one needs to learn to more effectively monitor the signals provided by the market.
Channel Tutorial
I have created a video tutorial describing the philosophy of the Hershey
method and instructions on exactly how to draw channels.
Spyder has reviewed the video, so it's safe to say at worst it won't get you off
track
It can be viewed or downloaded at
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/G...inners.wmv.html
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Channel Tutorial
Quote from bundlemaker:
I have created a video tutorial describing the philosophy of the Hershey method and instructions on exactly how to draw channels.
Spyder has reviewed the video, so it's safe to say at worst it won't get you off track
It can be viewed or downloaded at
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/G...inners.wmv.html
.
Hesitant to click on any of the links on that site.
Re: Re: Channel Tutorial
Quote from bi9foot:
That is quite the site
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Mirrored
Channels.For.Beginners-bundlemaker.wmv
VN job, Bob.
Re: Re: Channel Tutorial
Quote from bi9foot:
That is quite the site
Here is the place to
download from the above linked page:__________________
Rockets: late but safe?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Jack talks about 'Beginner Rockets' being low risk / high reward trades. 'Rockets' come from the indicator settings used on the MACD and Stochastics Indicators.
...
Keep in mind these indictors levels all occur after an FTT.
I know I keep repeating this but, the market provides signals of continuation and signals for change. There are no 'safe' or 'unsafe' entry. One is either on the right side of the market or not.
Continuation and Change
Quote from Bearbelly:
I hope I get to where you are one of these days.
__________________
Re: Channel Tutorial
Quote from bundlemaker:
I have created a video tutorial describing the philosophy of the Hershey method and instructions on exactly how to draw channels.
Re: Channel Tutorial
Quote from bundlemaker:
I have created a video tutorial
Re: Channel Tutorial
Quote from bundlemaker:
I have created a video tutorial describing the philosophy of the Hershey method and instructions on exactly how to draw channels.
Spyder has reviewed the video, so it's safe to say at worst it won't get you off track
It can be viewed or downloaded at
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/G...inners.wmv.html
Re: Channel Tutorial
Quote from bundlemaker:
I have created a video tutorial
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/G...inners.wmv.html
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Re: Channel Tutorial
Quote from bundlemaker:
I have created a video tutorial describing the philosophy of the Hershey method and instructions on exactly how to draw channels.
Spyder has reviewed the video, so it's safe to say at worst it won't get you off track
It can be viewed or downloaded at
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/G...inners.wmv.html
Re: Re: Re: Re: Power drift turns
Quote from Ezzy:
I had just finished notating this chart to help someone else, and then saw your post - serendipity. Notice how the FTT is shown clearly on both the red and purple channels. Though it does touch the RTL on the purple, it's not necessary. At some point during that bar it should have been recognized as an FTT before it got to the RTL.
Regards, - EZ
Quote from Bearbelly:
I dont think Mak's original IB PRV excel link ever got posted so here it is:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&pagenumber=417
Quote from ivob:
Hi,
I have some problems with this file.
After enabling macros it says this sheet has connections to other datasources and if I want to fetch the newest data, update or no update. If I click update it says external data not accessible. Do you want to start the application MYID.exe. If hit yes and then it says MYID.exe could not be started. Then I can continue.
This doesn't sound normal but it does seem to work but my PC runs at 100% when using the PRV sheet making it unusable.
Anyone knows what's going on?
thx
Ivo
If I remember right when I first started playing with this I used to get the unable to connect thing and after cliking no it would eventually start. After awhile it did not appear any more. Dont know why this happens. However it does not use much resources on mine so something else must be wrong.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Power drift turns
Quote from ivob:
Okay. Do you mean in general price does not have to touch RTL or just after a volatility expansion? I just want to get this straight.
regards,
Ivo
First trade ....for today...
And Exit ......
Why did you exit?
was going to LTL ....
Quote from Mr_Black:
was going to LTL ....
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Folks,
What is the correct action @ bar 15 (the bar ending @ 10:45) through bar 18? The
forest level trend is down and bar 15 touches the LTL on high volume. Then bars
16 and 17 retrace to the RTL on lower up (black) volume. A resumption of the
downtrend (or at least a potential FTT somewhere between the LTL and RTL after a
brief down bar) was what I was anticipating at this point. However price
continued going upwards after BO of the RTL and eventually stalled on bars
19-24.
Bar 15 cannot be defined as an FTT because price did traverse to the LTL. So at
the forest level, when does one shift from short to long? Bar 18 (ie on the
close > RTL)? The only advance warning clue I found was the high black volume on
the 10:46 YM bar; is that single piece of information sufficient to indicate a
change in trend?
TIA.
Thank you for your remarks.... but I am still a beginner...this is my 2nd trade for today
And exit....
I am noticing it is VERY important to watch the daily / hourly major up /
down dominant channels... when we break these a lot of big money goes in that
direction...
at around 9am PST this morning the market broke the Hourly / Daily uptrend
channel that had held for 7 trading hours and is now selling off with MATCHING
volume readings... obvious trades and pace settings via MAK... anyway NOT to be
missed...
so it seems to be REAL important to notice when my 5 min bar channels are in the
area of Hourly / Daily channels...
I have now seen this happen a number of times in the last 4 weeks...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
And 3rd trade for today....
Exit 3...
As both Spydertrader and I have implored you, please to not respond to and especially please do not quote the trolls. It repeats what they say which forces people who have them on ignore to read, it reinforces what they say, and it gives me more work when I clean-up. We're all disciplined traders here (ahem) so please show a little restraint and resist the temptation to respond to or quote the inevitable idiots who like to muck up a thread. Thanks.
My ES chart today....
One thing for sure. There is nothing better than price, trendlines and
volume. Everything else lags. Jack is partly responsible for me still
experimenting with indicators, most recent example when he told someone on the
SPM thread that you could simply reverse on the zeroline crosses of the 5,3,2
stochastic and make money. I have him on ignore now because I do not want to get
distracted again. In fact I think I am going to stop reading any other threads.
Do you find the ftt signals in the afternoon to be as reliable as those in the
morning? I have a much more difficult time reading them when the volatility
drops so I pretty much avoid trading in the pm. Curious if others are doing ok
with it.
Re: Re: Channel Tutorial
Quote from ivob:
Thank you very much Bundlemaker. It helps a lot to see and hear everything explained again in such a clear way. There were few things I missed.
Ivo
Quote from bi9foot:
Search for MYID in the workbook and replace all occurances with your IB user id.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Power drift turns
Quote from bi9foot:
Ivo, Hopefully this answers your question. I am referring to the 2 bars highlighted by light purple rectangle.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Power drift turns
Quote from ivob:
Hi yes, it is clear. Thank you.
So in general price need to touch RTL first before it can make an FTT (FTT happens always when traversing right to left). But volatility expansion is an exception to this. After all price does touch LTL right before VE takes place.
__________________
ES 26 Feb 07
Quote from KK70:
Folks,
What is the correct action @ bar 15 (the bar ending @ 10:45) through bar 18? The forest level trend is down and bar 15 touches the LTL on high volume. Then bars 16 and 17 retrace to the RTL on lower up (black) volume. A resumption of the downtrend (or at least a potential FTT somewhere between the LTL and RTL after a brief down bar) was what I was anticipating at this point. However price continued going upwards after BO of the RTL and eventually stalled on bars 19-24.
Bar 15 cannot be defined as an FTT because price did traverse to the LTL. So at the forest level, when does one shift from short to long? Bar 18 (ie on the close > RTL)? The only advance warning clue I found was the high black volume on the 10:46 YM bar; is that single piece of information sufficient to indicate a change in trend?
TIA.
Today's ES Chart
A great day to 'see' the market.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from KK70:
What is the correct action @ bar 15 (the bar ending @ 10:45) through bar 18? The forest level trend is down and bar 15 touches the LTL on high volume.
Quote from KK70:
Bar 15 cannot be defined as an FTT because price did traverse to the LTL.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Price did touch the right trend line - back at Point Three. Price then hit the left trend line, started to retrace, then resumed its downward movement. Here, Price failed to reach the left trend line. You appear to be operating under the mistaken belief that price needs to go all the way back to the right trend line before it can form an FTT. Please remove this incorrect 'rule' from your mindset.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
A great day to 'see' the market.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Bearbelly:
Do you find the ftt signals in the afternoon to be as reliable as those in the morning? I have a much more difficult time reading them when the volatility drops so I pretty much avoid trading in the pm. Curious if others are doing ok with it.
__________________
ivob
YM was definitely leading the way this morning. Down from the second bar on. ES
tried to protest but finally gave in.
Quote from Spydertrader:
When volume and volatility occasionally drops off later in the day, some have found difficulty following the FTT's. If you experience similar difficulty, then I recommend taking a very hard look at Gaussians. Rather than focus bar to bar, try to anticipate a bigger picture (Forest level) Gaussian. Start to do this in the mornings as well (when higher volume and volatility exist). With practice, you'll begin to 'see' the bigger picture much clearer, and as a result, lower volume in the afternoon's won't fool you one bit.
- Spydertrader
No comment on you finally removing the indicators.
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
Am I right when I say that the bias for the market before opening was up but that it was not confirmed by increasing black volume?
Quote from ivob:
After all the market opened higher so a up channel could be drawn providing a pt 3 would be formed (on increasing black volume). As volume was decreasing the first four bars I was expecting the fifth bar to form this point 3 on increasing black volume. It quickly became evident it didn't and instead formed a point 3 on a down channel. Am I concluding the right thing here?
__________________
Quote from Bearbelly:
Do you find the ftt signals in the afternoon to be as reliable as those in the morning? I have a much more difficult time reading them when the volatility drops so I pretty much avoid trading in the pm. Curious if others are doing ok with it.
Quote from Bearbelly:
ivob
YM was definitely leading the way this morning. Down from the second bar on. ES tried to protest but finally gave in.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Correct. Notice decreasing black on bar 2 (compared to the opening bar) which is then confirmed with even less black volume on bar 4.
See circled area on Attached chart. Note how far price comes back off the high. In reality, a Gaussian change had already started within the second bar of the day. The majority of Volume at the end of bar 2 (the 'top' if you will) resulted from red volume - as we see price pull back. If you look and think to yourself, "OK The Gaussian has already started" and mentally 'see' the 'pullback' on bar two is less than the length of bar three, you, in effect, can see increasing red volume (top volume on bar 2 and all of bar three). This is simply an example of a Gaussian change which starts intra-bar. Now that you can recognize it. Begin to think in this fashion when you encounter 'spikey' bars in the future.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
Let's say you do not believe the price action to which you refer resulted in an FTT on the ES. Certainly you do see an FTT on the YM at the same time (See attached). Since the YM leads the ES, and you have a signal for change on the YM, we follow the market signal and expect price to head higher from this point. Decreasing black volume marks a retrace of a channel. When the Gaussian changes from decreasing black to increasing black (a \/-B2B), we have a reversal (breakout of the channel).
Quote from KK70:
So how then would you have played the earlier 10:00 AM move? Would you have gone long at 10:05 and short again at 10:26?
Thanks again.
Quote from Jander:
After the FBO at around 10:15-10:20 you would exit or reverse...depending on your experience level. No reason to hold that long back to your entry point IMO... is that what you are asking?
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Jander:
Just to expand on your debrief of that sequence....Say you could have 2 volume bars for each of those price bars, it would look something like this? I think that is what youre getting at...
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Correct. Especially on 'spike' type Price Bars, one needs to begin mentally to 'see' a Gaussian shift happening within the bar - without manually changing fractals on your chart (or looking at another chart of a lower fractal).
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Correct. Especially on 'spike' type Price Bars, one needs to begin mentally to 'see' a Gaussian shift happening within the bar - without manually changing fractals on your chart (or looking at another chart of a lower fractal).
- Spydertrader
Quote from KK70:
So how then would you have played the earlier 10:00 AM move? Would you have gone long at 10:05 and short again at 10:26?
__________________
Quote from KK70:
Yes, and more importantly, I am wondering if it is right to go long between 10:00-10:06 based on the YM FTT.....
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
I agree with Ivo here... the YM tells the story of the opening beautifully.
Quote from ivob:
Wouldn't it help to just see that spike type Price bar in a lower fractal?
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
Wouldn't it help to just see that spike type Price bar in a lower fractal? Just to see how it is build up? I mean, it could be going up on high volume and go down on low volume. When you see this exact bar divided into 5 bars (or even 2 would do) it's easier to see. After all it is an important bar.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from BA_Trader:
I agree with Ivo here... the YM tells the story of the opening beautifully.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from BA_Trader:
I agree with Ivo here... the YM tells the story of the opening beautifully.
__________________
I see it now! Thanks Spyder and Jander (and ivob too).
Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Looking at the YM is fine. Breaking down the ES into one minute bars on another chart is not...
Gaussian Drill
Hey Fellow PV'rs, attached is a drill to force you to think about Gaussians.
If you are interested, give it a try...
The attached chart shows "theoretical" Gaussians. These Gaussians reflect price
action in the form of channels and traverses within the channels.
Your job, if you decide to accept this drill, is to:
1) Draw the Forest-level channel(s).
2) Draw the traverse(s) within the Forest-level channel(s), if they exist.
Simply use lines, no need to draw bars.
[Hint: it may be easier to do (2) first, followed by (1). This is what you do in
real-time, right?]
3) Label any FTT's, FBO's, BO's, etc that you may encounter (or "anticipate")
4) Above the Gaussians, but within the Volume pane, draw any Forest-level
Gaussians, if they exist.
5) If you use the "Forest Guidelines", mark any important "end effects" related
to the guidelines.
6) If this "snippet" did not represent the entire day, what would you
"anticipate" to happen next? For this question, assume the last "B" is a
Gaussian peak.
On the channel(s) and traverse(s), try and be precise as possible. In other
words, peaks and troughs are important. No more Hints...
I'll be happy to post the answer later. Sure, there may be more than one right
answer. If no one attempts to post an answer, I'll get the message that it was a
stupid drill and prolly won't post the answer.
spooz
Re: Channel Tutorial
Quote from bundlemaker:
I have created a video tutorial describing the philosophy of the Hershey method and instructions on exactly how to draw channels.
Spyder has reviewed the video, so it's safe to say at worst it won't get you off track
It can be viewed or downloaded at
http://www.uploading.com/en/files/G...inners.wmv.html
Re: Gaussian Drill
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Hey Fellow PV'rs,
spooz
.
Re: Re: Gaussian Drill
PointOne,
Quote from PointOne:
(Sorry if I spoiled it for anyone.)
simu-trading
Spyder;
Thanks very much for your coaching us tirelessly.
A little frustration of mine:
1. The momentum of the price movements in SIM do not agree with what are in the
QCharts. FTTs, therefore, can not be transferred from Q to S.
2. The platform of SIM may not be 100% in realtime?
3. It is kind of visual game for me to play while trade on sim.
4. The results, so far, are not bad.
Any advice is appreciated.
Wen, if you are using the SIM on ninjatrader from what I understand that is
not real-time but generated from an algorithm. I could be wrong.
I know that some brokers allow you to open a paper trading account to trade on
real-time data (IB for one does this). What about using one of those?
Bundle:
Thank you very much for sharing the Refreshing video.
Such a smart idea,
Iric: Thank you.
We're at 250 pages or so. Do you suppose it's possible we missed some stuff.
I spent the day reviewing posts related to volume as that's the next focus of my
journey. Below I copy/pasted some words by Makosgu that I somehow missed in my
torrent of channel work.
****************************************
For each VOLUME PACE, I have a different expectation for how far the bar will
extend. This is the real eye opener for PRV. Given my continous rt PRV value, I
have an expectation for how large the PRICE bar will be. The +/- tells me
whether I can expect to extend the DOMINANT direction (+PRV) or retrace back
against the DOMINANT direction (-PRV).
*****************************************
I am "LOOKING" for dominants. If I have a DOMINANT going against the grain (ie.
direction of the channel), I reposition and start new channels. Dominants
require +PRV. For a -PRV, I am on alert for either new boundaries or for the
next +PRV dominant...
*****************************************
At the end of a short short term channel it is a B\/B
At the end of a long short term channel it is a R\/R
If I have increasing volume that is going against the previous dominant, (ie.
the increasing side of a R/\B or B/\R) then the extreme of the previous PV
Gaussian cycle was my FTT. For spyder and I, we view it from the perspective of
if the surge does not reach my LTL, it FAILED TO TRAVERSE
******************************************
If you get hung up on 2 bars, you miss the big picture. If the majority of the
bars are business as usual, do not concern yourself with the 2 outlying bars.
Alot of traders screw up all the time by concerning themself with every little
detail. PV is about the herd, NOT the actions of a lone trader within the hred.
If you nail identifying DOMINANTS and NON-DOMINANTS, then you will "see" that
the big picture is a continuous non-failing sequences of these cycling pairs.
Every CHANNEL, PENNANT, LATERAL have cycling Ds and NDs. Sometimes, you get the
D and ND on the same bar. For now, classify these two bars as having both a
traverse (dominant) and retrace (non dominant).
********************************************
Since pts 1,2,3 are critical values of the channel, I explicitly correspond pts
1, 2, 3 with volume.
********************************************
We always have to differentiate concepts that are rigid (ie. +/-, pt1,2,3) from
those that are dynamical. The period of a gaussian is dynamic and is in
accordance with the pace. The characterisation is that when the PACE is
relatively fast (ie. MEDIUM/FAST/EXTREME), the period of the gaussian is long
(ie. 15M-45M). When the PACE is slow (ie. SLOW/DU/VDU), the period of a gaussian
is short (ie. 5M-15M).
**********************************************
Thank you very much Mak for your incredible insights. Your posts are appreciated
and EXTREMELY valuable.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bucherwin:
Such a smart idea,
Iric: Thank you.
Re: Re: Re: Gaussian Drill
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Or better yet, maybe someone else can post some so I can get in on the action.
__________________
Quote from Pr0crast:
I never got the real-time data to work with Ninja for some reason (it didn't like my feeds) so maybe someone else who did can chime in too.
__________________
bundle, thanks for diggin' up those nuggets for us
some important stuff in there.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaussian Drill
Spyder,
Quote from Spydertrader:
Attached, Please find my Gaussian Drill for your educational pleasure. I made it slightly easier by leaving the Volume Pace lines intact. Enjoy!
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaussian Drill
Quote from spooz_trader1:
What day is this so I can see how bad I did?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaussian Drill
Quote from Spydertrader:
Attached, Please find my Gaussian Drill for your educational pleasure. I made it slightly easier by leaving the Volume Pace lines intact. Enjoy!
- Spydertrader
Gaussian Drills
Nkhoi and Gooch87, Nice job with the Gaussian Drills guys.
- Spydertrader
__________________
my hat off to gooch, that 's freaky, man!
interested
I'd be happy to create some more of these Gaussian Drills if anyone is
interested.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
spooz
I am interested but the time difference makes it slghtly difficult to join in.
Thank you.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaussian Drill
Quote from Spydertrader:
Attached, Please find my Gaussian Drill for your educational pleasure. I made it slightly easier by leaving the Volume Pace lines intact. Enjoy!
- Spydertrader
Re: Gaussian Drill
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Hey Fellow PV'rs, attached is a drill to force you to think about Gaussians. If you are interested, give it a try...
spooz
Quote from Mr_Black:
Thank you for your remarks.... but I am still a beginner...this is my 2nd trade for today
Good post: exits
Quote from ivob:
Just my experience: I got in trouble several times by taking profits on just a few ticks and telling myself "I'm just a beginner" and "I'm just learning", not at all times applying the things I learned.
Quote from ivob:
IMO it's just better to follow the rules. If you don't follow the rules you start to make up your own rules on the fly and you start seeing things that aren't there.
Spyder,
I have a question regarding a couple of FTTs marked "ftt?" and highlighted in
yellow in the attached chart. Having noticed the pause in price prior to
reaching the LTL and a potential gaussian peak, I felt that both qualified as
potential FTTs. With hindsight, I realise that both were flaws but were there
any telltale signs that led you not to consider them as FTTs?
Gaussian Drill
Was under the weather yesterday, only say the drill this morning and decided
to do a quick stab at it.
Anyways here is a scan of my art work.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Pr0crast:
Yes, very important, and pretty common sense too if you think about it.
Example: Look at a doji bar (opens and closes at the same price). Most charting software considers that a "black" bar. Just because the charting software considers it a black bar, that doesn't mean that YOU should.
You should develop a mental process that looks at the price bar and immediately deducts what % of the corresponding volume bar is ACTUALLY black or red.
Don't trust the software. Trust your brain.
I enter on this Ftt.... whit target RTL
And this is My Exit....
Flaws vs FTT
Quote from dkm:
I have a question regarding a couple of FTTs marked "ftt?" and highlighted in yellow in the attached chart. Having noticed the pause in price prior to reaching the LTL and a potential gaussian peak, I felt that both qualified as potential FTTs. With hindsight, I realise that both were flaws but were there any telltale signs that led you not to consider them as FTTs?
__________________
Forgot to attach
I apologize for neglecting to attach this chart from the previous post.
- Spydertrader
__________________
My ES chart so far....
Wow. who would of thought that such days would be so much fun.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
CRIKE...
I am getting tired of moving my Vol Expansion line down over and over...
cj...
HAVE STOP WILL TRADE
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
I steepened my channel 4 times and still no dice. I give up on annotating for
the rest of the day
i had to turn off my tick charts. they were making me dizzy
Today's ES Chart
Unbelievable Day. Six times I had to draw in steeper channels
on the ES. I hope I haven't cluttered the chart too much. A great day to be a
trader for sure.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
I have never seen anything like this. I did ok but percentage wise it wasnt that much. Did any of you make a killing today? Curious how the method does on a day like today. There were times that YM was moving 30-40 ticks in a few seconds. I dont know how to trade that kind of stuff.
Aweosme Day
Quote from Bearbelly:
I have never seen anything like this. I did ok but percentage wise it wasnt that much. Did any of you make a killing today? Curious how the method does on a day like today.
__________________
extraordinarily
The system performs extraordinarily well on days like today.
- Spydertrader
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pr0 and I were wondering if you had retired!!!
Quote from Bearbelly:
I have never seen anything like this. I did ok but percentage wise it wasnt that much. Did any of you make a killing today? Curious how the method does on a day like today. There were times that YM was moving 30-40 ticks in a few seconds. I dont know how to trade that kind of stuff.
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Unbelievable Day. Six times I had to draw in steeper channels on the ES. I hope I haven't cluttered the chart too much. A great day to be a trader for sure.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from PointOne:
Did anyone take out more than the H-L range?
I know I am with mine.
Quote from Harold Balls:
fwiw, i bought 25 cars at 1394.00 (based on my channels and my understanding of PV), reversed my position at 1411.50 based on an FTT on both the YM and ES (exited that at 4pm). This is ALL thanks to my efforts and work with jacks method. I'm tempted to post my blotter from today but, to be honest, I am not as generous as him and dont want all you monkeys flocking over to learn it. Stick with what you are doing, nothing going on with channels and the like.
__________________
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from PointOne:
Could be months before the initial TL is touched again.
Did anyone take out more than the H-L range? (Too busy holding onto your hats, I bet!) Actually this is a serious question - on days like today is it harder to stick to the system absolutely and not get blinded by the P&L?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
House Keeping
We all have been at this for a few months now, and before moving forward, I
wanted to take stock of where people stood. Without placing anybody on the spot,
I'd appreciate it if we could temporarily digress to see how everyone's reality
meets with their expectations.
How did everyone do today? You don't have to provide actual blotters, or
execution reports, but I would prefer you gave an honest opinion. If people
continue to experience some difficulties, I'd like to have those difficulties
resolved before moving forward.
Specifically ....
How did your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go today?
How did you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
Where do you see difficulty, and where do you see improvement?
Can you correctly use Channels and Gaussians to correctly anticipate direction?
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
I realize this slight digression may take us somewhat off track with respect to
the syllabus. However, I feel it is extremely important that everyone
work through whatever difficulty they currently have before adding any
additional tools. With that said, I look forward to everyone's honest input and
critique of the process thus far.
Thanks in advance.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hi Spyder,
I've been playing catch-up for the last couple of weeks, so I'm sure a lot of my
difficulties will be resolved with more practice (though I'd be happy with a
couple more weeks before adding new tools!). But since you ask ...
When the market proceeds in a fairly orderly way from channel to channel I'm
happy with my progress and the way I'm seeing the PV relation and how it
telegraphs change. Much of Monday's action had a kind of textbook clarity. I've
also found the YM extremely helpful. In general, my 'reading' of the market is
becoming more specific and more accurate, though with ups and downs.
I often have trouble getting working channels going (and therefore an entry)
after the open, and then the same trouble repeats when the the market goes
sideways or a battle between 2 channels seems to go past both channels without
resolving in either direction. (11:00 - 12:00 yesterday, for example, though in
that case I probably would have washed or almost washed any actual trades.)
When that happens I become frustrated, and lose concentration, and can then miss
the real move. (In general, concentration is a problem for me during the long
stretches where nothing much happens.) Of course, it will be a lot more
compelling when I actually have trades at stake (I wish I'd been trading
yesterday!). I wonder whether it might be a good idea for me to do some
simulation...so far I'm following your advice in not doing so (and in everything
else related to this method).
Superb thread: your generosity, dedication and patience are truly extraordinary.
palinuro
A somewhat troubling technical point.
Toward the end of the day my volume values are very different from those on
Spyder's chart, and to a lesser extent the relationships.
(I've also noticed pricebars with different closes and opens, though that's
generally minor, and if you're keeping an eye on what's happening intrabar not
worth worrying about.)
Did this happen to anyone else using Qcharts?
Edit: the image should of course be named 02-27--I mistakenly used today's date
(I don't debrief after 10 pm market close, the day is long enough as it is!).
How did your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go today?
> profitable
How did you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
> nervous at first, but became mechanical at the end.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
> like watching an old movie
Where do you see difficulty, and where do you see improvement?
> I still hesitate in action, although I see the signal in advance.
> when I missed a signal by, say 5 minutes, I would pass up the opportunity
instead of making a late entry, although I knew damn well that it will still
make a good trade.
> I need to work on my debriefing. I read somewhere that Mak debriefs in his
sleep. I want to start doing that to build my NLP pictures.
Can you correctly use Channels and Gaussians to correctly anticipate direction?
> channels ok. I need to work on gaussians, especially when the day is not a
textbook case.
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
> I need to understand the transitions into and out of CCC. I can see "signs",
but I am not reading the messages.
Up until 10:50 I found it quite difficult to see the dominant direction but things became clearer from thereon. I spent the day annotating, which is going pretty well, but I am tending not to draw in steeper channels so this is something I will pay attention to. I also spent a lot of the day thinking “when is this going to turn” instead of just calmly letting it unfold. My use of the Gaussians to anticipate direction is getting better. I need to improve my use of carryover channels. I frequently do not see “context” until after the first channel of the day has formed.
Spydertrader,
Thank you for all your good deeds.
Changing the trade cycle from FTT-->FTT to Point3-->FTT helped me a lot. It was
more difficult to change my mind from short to long in one shot; going from
short to neutral and then to long is smoother.
My problem area is waiting for confirmation to pull the trigger. I lack the
confidence/conviction to execute consistently intra-day. By the time
confirmation in P or V is evident, it is often too late.
Regards,
kk70
Re: House Keeping
Hello Spyder,
How did everyone do today?
I watched the green pile up until I couldnt stand it any more and hit the close button then watched it continue on that far again. I have a problem hitting the trigger if I am sitting on a nice profit. The plan usually goes out the window after I close out a good trade. Not sure what to do about it. I could close the p&l but I would still have a pretty good idea of where I was so I dont think that would do any good.
I struggle to correctly see market direction early in the day. Most often my
first papertrade of the day goes against me because I misidentified a channel or
ftt. I also feel I need to concentrate more attention on
understanding/interpreting Gaussians.
John
It seems that my channels are too "tight". When I start drawing channels.
Price does not stay long inside and there are some outside bars that are part of
the channel or of a new or wider channel. Maybe this means the channels are
drawn too early.
This is why I trade much better when I come in the room when the market has been
open for a while (and the channels are obvious) then when I start from the
beginning and I'm still trying to figure out what's going on.
regards,
Ivo
Hello Spydertrader.
My troubles are re: the overlap of channels.
Seeing an FTT on a dominant means I start to create a down
or non dominant tape.
I start to get lost knowing whether I have a point 3 when price retraces to the
RTL of the tape or whether I in fact have an FTT in the origonal dominant
channel that has created this pull back to the RTL of the tape.
Where I am unable to understand whichis which is in the gaussian.
Volume can go from red to black intra bar so quickly and
I am out of position ie: the wrong side before both vol and the bar have
completed.
Often if I then change direction I am caught in a "chase my tale " situ...
i understand to sideline when in doubt, but I am not entering initially on
doubt..I am just unable at times to keep up or understand the intrad bar situ...
Many thanks
FilterTip
Re: House Keeping
Quote from Spydertrader:
How did your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go today?
I was profitable, but not nearly what was available.
How did you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
When in the trade(s), I was nervous and looking at the leaves and bark rather than the big picture .
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
I was seeing and almost not believing what was going on. I had closed a short just ahead of the afternoon sell-off and could not bring myself to jump back in short. I had been hurt Monday chasing the market (the wrong one) and that added to my reluctance to get back in.
Where do you see difficulty, and where do you see improvement?
I have not spent enough time on the volume Gaussians, so that is where I have the most difficulty.
Can you correctly use Channels and Gaussians to correctly anticipate direction?
Doing fairly well with the channels, not so with the volume (see above).
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
Rather than following only the structure you had put forth, I was branching out and applying this to the Russell. That was a big mistake. Maybe at some point in the future my skills would be such that I could migrate this to other markets, but it is very important for us (specifically me) to focus on the task at hand rather than trying to watch too many different markets at one time.
Thanks in advance.
- Spydertrader
Quote from ivob:
It seems that my channels are too "tight".
Quote from PointOne:
Not that I'm qualified to give advice really, but remember that price action determines the channels not the other way round. Subsequently price may stay within an established container for a while but you have to allow the container time to form (the recent memory of all that volume that went through).
Get a nice fat pair of skis, don't look at your ski tips (or other nervous skiers) and enjoy the scenery. GS comes later and MAK is on twin tips.
Re: House Keeping
Quote from Spydertrader:
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
...
- Spydertrader
Damn, I missed yesterday’s session. I had some other matters and came at the
close of market.
I came to follow this method a bit late – at the end of January. I advanced
nicely until last week when I also started sim. account – I wanted to learn new
software at the same time. As it turns out it was a big mistake. I came to a
complete mental stop, Gaussian was suddenly unreadable to me, RT PRV was a mess,
and every turn of the market was a FTT and half a minute later a WTF.
It looks my basics are not really sinking in, so I started from scratch again.
After reading Jacks CFBW again and watching video by bundlemaker, I'm now back
at drawing channels in RT and identifying FTT (not drawing anything until next
bar closes ), then step by step
– again. Until everything sinks in.
Re: Re: House Keeping
Quote from nkhoi:
after I enter I usually see a steeper channel in the same dominant trend. The question is should I hold for exit at BO of the old channel or exit at BO of the new and steeper channel that I just draw.
ES chart for the morning
ES chart for the morning
Something is baffling me.
I tried the prv.xls last Friday. It was working fine.
But for the past 2 days, the xls was eating up >50% of the CPU capacity, pushing
my total CPU to 100% most of the time.
Does anyone of you experience the same thing?
Quote from Tums:
Something is baffling me.
I tried the prv.xls last Friday. It was working fine.
But for the past 2 days, the xls was eating up >50% of the CPU capacity, pushing my total CPU to 100% most of the time.
Does anyone of you experience the same thing?
ES chart for the morning
Quote from ivob:
Yep, me. I cannot get it to work. I also get some strange MYid.exe error (on different PC's BTW).
regards,
Ivo
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Spyder,
You want to know how we're doing? At this point, I feel comfortable drawing in
the channels in RT (tape, pt 3, channel, repeat!). I'm getting better at
identifying the volume gaussians, but I'd say that's where I need more practice.
Otherwise, I've very pleased with my own progress and the pace of the class at
this point.
When I first say the syllabus, I thought it was kind of slow, but now I realize
that it's a lot to cover. I am not doing any real futures trading, or even with
a paper account yet. I could see that as soon as I do that, I'll be fixated on
the P&L. I don't want to go there until I can annotate and interpret the charts
in my sleep! I do keep a daily log however.
Thanks for all your hard work and the hard work of others.
Bill
Re: House Keeping
First, Thank you Spyder, Mak, Jack, and all the others who have helped me
learn more about the market in months then all the books, trading, and work I
have done before. I really apprecate it.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Specifically ....
How did your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go today?
Overall, my trades (on my log) went very well today but still having trouble with shaking my old viewpoints of when to get in or out. That gets me into or out of a trade before I should of.
How did you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
I was very impressed with how the method performed yesterday. I was sitting there thinking I should push the button for real, thinking about all of that money I could of made. But, reality is, I am still learning.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
Pretty much but still have trouble with flaws like a stall.
Where do you see difficulty, and where do you see improvement?
Probalby more practice as time goes on will help me improve.
Can you correctly use Channels and Gaussians to correctly anticipate direction?
In general but still have trouble with Gaussians. I think that over time this will take care of itself.
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
You and your team have done a great job to clearify all points brought up.
[/B]
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
My current situation is very very similar to the below
Quote from WGTrader:
Spyder,
You want to know how we're doing? At this point, I feel comfortable drawing in the channels in RT (tape, pt 3, channel, repeat!). I'm getting better at identifying the volume gaussians, but I'd say that's where I need more practice. Otherwise, I've very pleased with my own progress and the pace of the class at this point.
When I first say the syllabus, I thought it was kind of slow, but now I realize that it's a lot to cover. I am not doing any real futures trading, or even with a paper account yet. I could see that as soon as I do that, I'll be fixated on the P&L. I don't want to go there until I can annotate and interpret the charts in my sleep! I do keep a daily log however.
Thanks for all your hard work and the hard work of others.
Bill
ES today so far....so good...
markets
Quote from Spydertrader:
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
Pretty much but still have trouble with flaws like a stall.
Where do you see difficulty?
___________________________________________________
I am very pleased with my progress, having learnt the art of drawing channels in
the last few weeks with lot of help behind the scenes I am on to my next step.
Guassians, finding this concept not too easy but I believe I should pick it up
soon. I can see some of the FTTs real time. Thank you Spyder, Jack and everyone.
Good trading to all!
ES 28 Feb 2007
Felt much more in tune today. Taking more care with gaussians.
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart - Note the Gaussians and their differences.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from dkm:
ES 28 Feb 2007
Felt much more in tune today. Taking more care with gaussians.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
.
The Syllabus
I appreciate the contributions made thus far with respect to where everyone
find's themselves in terms of progress toward learning the methods discussed.
Many have weighed in off thread from both sides of the coin. On one hand, a
number of people feel they have progressed far enough to begin to add additional
tools. The other side of the argument shows a lot of people still having
difficulty with basic concepts. I realize everyone has a strong desire to
succeed, as well as, obtain some measure of confidence at their current plateau.
As such, I don't want to 'hold back' those who feel they have reached a stage
where they feel its time to advance. Nor, do I wish to add another layer of
practice for individuals needing additional time at their current skill set. As
you can see the choice was a difficult one to make, and one I did not take
lightly.
My major concern stems from the lack of responses after yesterday's market
close. On such an historic day, I thought sure I'd see numerous posts detailing
how well people either traded, sim traded, or could 'see' the market as it
unfolded (during monitoring). Based on our discussions thus far, everyone (using
the Forest Level guidelines only) should have picked up the Point Three
short at 10:00 AM Eastern Time (Bar Seven) and held short until 3:00 PM
Eastern Time when price finally broke through a right side trend line.
That 5 hour trade captured 39 points per contract.
Since I did not see any mention of this trade (except in another thread), I
wondered if even the people who think they are ready to move forward,
really are.
A common theme among the feedback received so far pertains to a lack of
understanding about Gaussians. Since I haven't placed as much emphasis on
gaussians within the thread itself, the responsibility for individuals having
some difficulty with Gaussians partly falls on my shoulders. I plan to remedy
that situation immediately.
After reading through the significant amount of feedback received and reviewing
the PM's, IM's, emails and chat logs of discussions surrounding progress made to
date, I feel it best to delay adding STR / SQU for another month. I have updated
the syllabus accordingly (See Attached). In addition to the YM and ES, we will
spend the Month of March focusing on Gaussians and PRV. For those of you who
feel you are ready to advance, I do not want you to feel held back in any way.
Jack and others have posted about STR / SQU in other threads. However, before
you go and add STR / SQU because you think you are ready, I recommend
taking a week and proving to yourself by SIM trading at your current
skill set. You may be surprised at what you find. For those of you already
trading real money, you already know where you need to focus.
Also, for those that do fully grasp the current skill set, I would
appreciate it (and I am sure those having difficulty would also) if you could
take a moment or two and describe how you 'see' things unfold, what drills you
used to assist your learning process, how you use PRV and how you use Gaussians
(Maybe Bob will even make a Gaussians Video).
Again, delaying the introduction of STR / SQU was not a decision I took lightly.
However, it is my firm belief that building a strong foundation remains a
hallmark of success. As such, I feel I have made the right choice.
Good Trading to you all.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Congrats on making it this far.
I suppose now is the appropriate time to present volume 2 of the journal pdf
compilation. As usual, please PM me if I missed anything worth including, or if
you find any broken links, typos, or formatting errors. I've also reposted the
link to the volume 1 pdf in case anyone missed it.
January - ES Chart: Price, Volume, Channels, and the FTT
February - The YM Leads the ES
Gaussian Drill Two
Another Gaussian Drill. I'll provide the answer tomorrow morning.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Thanks Todd for slowing down. I have to admit that I am another who needs more time with gaussians also.
Re: The Syllabus
Quote from Spydertrader:
Again, delaying the introduction of STR / SQU was not a decision I took lightly.
Re: House Keeping
Quote from Spydertrader:
...........
How can I help...........
- Spydertrader
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
re. Spyder Channel trading room...good idea.
Less expensive trading room software:
http://www.tradingrooms.com/Main.aspx
Re: Re: House Keeping
Quote from ivob:
Hello Spyder,
I lost some money in the morning and did not trade the afternoon. In general I'm losing and sometimes they get big. I think I can phrase quite well what's going on. I feel I CAN annotate well and I do see the turning points. The problem is that i should see ONLY these turning points.
There are several problems:
1 overtrading. Trying to immediately correct a trade that went wrong. Then if it doesn't go your way immediately I get out ending up with two losses. This influences trades thereafter and objectivity.
2 I should relax and wait for the REAL FTT instead of seeing FTT's everywhere. Especially when volatility decreases and I had some losing trades I get fooled.
I think I should use some additional rules. Maybe a good one would be to just do ONE TRADE a day maximum until I'm profitable. Or maybe just papertrade until I'm profitable. Cooling down period after a trade. Any suggestion?
The positive thing is that I do not stick my head in the sand and I think I know what's wrong and willing to do anything to correct it.
regards,
Ivo
WILL TRADE
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Progress report
I've been following this thread for the last month. Drawing the channels,
watching the vol. gaussians. I am now able to spot the ftt's fairly well. I can
see the gaussians and anticipate the next one. I haven't yet read all of Journal
II so the answers I need may be in there. I don't completely understand the B2B,
R2R...stuff. I thought it refereed to which big volume bar was on each side of a
trough. However on some of the charts posted it doesn't always seem that way. A
gaussian video would be great. The channel video was very well done and helpful.
Today was the first day I traded this method solely. It was very relaxing after
the first couple trades worked well. I didn't take too many ftt trades, mainly
volume dryup at the rtl and once at the ma/support intersection. I'm not
completely clear exactly when to enter on the ftt. Today I watched price get
sucked down off the high of the bar and volume rate increase as this happened. I
also used market delta(buy-sell vol) to confirm the change in sentiment. If
someone could explain the trigger for an ftt entry if I'm missing something and
the b2b stuff that would help. This is a very well done and fascinating thread.
The people that contribute are a huge benefit.
Re: Gaussian Drill Two
Quote from Spydertrader:
Another Gaussian Drill. I'll provide the answer tomorrow morning.
- Spydertrader
Re: Gaussian Drill Two
Quote from Spydertrader:
Another Gaussian Drill. I'll provide the answer tomorrow morning.
- Spydertrader
If I was a wise man, I would have looked at the guys above before I posted this... but you have to learn sooner or later...
Gaussians
Couldn't figure out how to annotate spydertrders attachment.
Mines a bit basic but I live and learn.
FilterTip
my masterpiece
everybody else have sort of U shape chart, hm..
Gaussian Drill2 - My take
Here is mine. I encourage everyone to participate.
Re: The Syllabus
Quote from Spydertrader:
...
My major concern stems from the lack of responses after yesterday's market close...
Since I did not see any mention of this trade (except in another thread), I wondered if even the people who think they are ready to move forward, really are...
Gaussian Drill Three
Draw in the Gaussians, Volume Bars and Channels.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Also, for those that do fully grasp the current skill set, I would appreciate it (and I am sure those having difficulty would also) if you could take a moment or two and describe how you 'see' things unfold, what drills you used to assist your learning process, how you use PRV and how you use Gaussians (Maybe Bob will even make a Gaussians Video).
The mind and body of the market is on display, intimately.
Re: Gaussian Drill Three
My answers to the price bars puzzle. As Pr0 mentioned, don't peak until you
do yours
Minor edit. My last R2R was slight not aligned. Chart updated.
Re: Re: Gaussian Drill Three
Quote from bi9foot:
Attachment: pricebars_edit.gif
This has been downloaded 8 time(s).
Re: Gaussian Drill Two
Quote from Spydertrader:
Another Gaussian Drill. I'll provide the answer tomorrow morning.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Yes, me too on gaussians... and how to ignore the small ones and concentrate,
for now, on the major ones...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Re: Gaussian Drill Three
Quote from Spydertrader:
Draw in the Gaussians, Volume Bars and Channels.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Pr0crast:
snip..
Do they (Gaussians) reflect what is going on this instant (are they "operating")? Are there any channels missing from your chart?
) earlier this month in this
post here.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...373#post1358373
Let me just throw out another possibility here for you. Lets assume that when the price broke the RTL, we continued to see decreasing black volume. What does that tell you? Basically price is operating within a much wider channel that is either drawn in your chart or not drawn. If it is not drawn, you are basically going to start looking for the point 3 of the wider channel and when you get the shift from decreasing black to increasing red you have pt 3 of the wider channel and you can draw the channel.
Take a stab at Spyders drill, little trouble w/ the Gaussians, especially at low vol times
Quote from Jander:
Take a stab at Spyders drill, little trouble w/ the Gaussians, especially at low vol times
Re: Gaussian Drill Three
Quote from Spydertrader:
Draw in the Gaussians, Volume Bars and Channels.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
This is My Drill Pic. Please show me My mistakes.....
drill
Here is the price bar drill.
Here's my answer.
FYI,
Egg shells
I've just changed my chart background to eggshell. It is very calming
compared to the black I was using before. I just wanted to share that with
everyone.
Also this: a really good FTT trade will make an observer behind you scream
"You're going to do WHAT??" Try it.
This is My Price Bars Pic.....
Folks,
How are the volume bands calculated? I would imagine that after the high volume
of the past 2 days, the bands would have to be recalculated....
TIA
Price drill first.
And volume. I think I'll have a busy weekend
Drill 2 ... another good idea! Jander & Mr. Black, your drill 1's are humbling, and likely spot on.
Amazing How One can develop an understanding for the price action whit simple
drills.....
DAX
Another day enjoying the wonders of espansionlines
DAX 01.03.07
FilterTip
And here's mine--did the price bars before drawing in the gaussians, which I think was a mistake ...
Re: Gaussian Drill Two
Quote from Spydertrader:
Another Gaussian Drill. I'll provide the answer tomorrow morning.
__________________
Here is mine. I look forward to improving on this part of the process.
Quote from WGTrader:
.. I am not doing any real futures trading, or even with a paper account yet. I could see that as soon as I do that, I'll be fixated on the P&L. I don't want to go there until I can annotate and interpret the charts in my sleep! I do keep a daily log however.
..
I didn't follow directions very well on my last chart so here is the updated
one.
gooch87
how sweet was that first FTT...
"BAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLINNNNNNNN"
-Jim Jones
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: Re: Re: House Keeping
Quote from EdgeHunter:
Ivo,
If you have more than 25k in your account you can trade the spyders which matches the ES 99% (they are actaually arbed by huge traders to match the ES)...
You can start with 50 spy (or 25 spy) and trade ALL DAY... and increase your number of spy buys as you have a profitable week... as in... the next week 100 spy and then the next week 200 spy and then 300 spy and then 400 spy and then 500 spy which pretty much is equal to one contract...
then move to 750 spy, then 2 ES, 4 ES, etc...
It is important to take the signalled trades since to convince your subconscious that channels and volume, etc. work...
if no have 25K in account you need to sim until you can trust in taking the trades as you see them so then you will get implicit learning embedded in your conscious and subconscious and improve with trial and error...
cj...
HAVE STOP
Quote from makosgu:
how sweet was that first FTT...
"BAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLINNNNNNNN"
-Jim Jones
Quote from makosgu:
how sweet was that first FTT...
"BAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLINNNNNNNN"
-Jim Jones
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
I actually been a lurker for some time as I tried to read as much in the
background info as I can. Still reading as I find this a nice addition to my
approach for trading futures.
I started out today with my first trades drawing channels and such. I do not do
it yet as detailed as you guys or with all the markings. I tried to just see the
bigger picture for each channel adn look for FTTs or actual breakouts.
I will attach my chart in a bit. I was able to make 2.5 points by the time the
market actually opened (i.e. in the pre-market off of 4 trades with one losing
trade in out of the 4).
My total would have been bigger however on the open when I was short at 1390.50
I covered at 1389.25 because this is still new and I am feeling my way around.
Naturaly that candle closed at 1385 so I would have grabbed another 4.25 points.
I am not bothered I did not get those additional points because the "approach"
got me in that specific entry, I just pulled the trigger fast due to the
learning curve. So I could have had about 6 points trading the pre-market to the
open alone. Very pleased with that potential.
Naturally after the open I got involved in other trades and stepped away so I
missed the breakout that on my chart occured at around 9:55 - 10:00 AM somewhere
around 1390, give or take a few points since I am not as adept as this as you
guys. However that signal with my lagging entry would still have gotten at worst
another 5 points.
While writing this I also jus noticed a FTT at the 10:30 AM 5min bar which would
have led to a short entry at 1402.75 (hope this is not just hindsight) and the
market is currently at 1399.50 as I write this for another 2 -3 points depending
on where the exit would be.
So for a newbie at these channels I can see on a really volatile day how one can
steal about 10 - 15 points. I approached quite "pussily" and still grabbed 2.5
myself. I am giong to back study many days and practice drawing but I sill am at
the basic level of just channels for right now. I am not grabbing gaussians or
left to right or those other terms other than FTT but still seeing the trades at
this low level. So I assume with more reading I will get a deeper understanding.
Anyway thanks for all those who detail and summarize. I still see areas where I
would get whipsawed on FBOs but today is more volatile than usual so I will take
that with a grain of salt.
EDIT: the recent FTT I mentioned above at 1402.75 showed another FTT and BO
right now at 1403.25 for a long entry. ANyone else see that or am I seeing a
whipsaw lol?
Re: Re: Re: Re: House Keeping
Quote from ivob:
Thanks for the suggestion, I'm doing it. You should see SPY right now going all over the place (bid, ask and traded). Incredible this volatility. At least I took the ride on the first FTT from 1384 to 1400 so that's good.
regards,
Ivo
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from optioncoach:
Anyway thanks for all those who detail and summarize. I still see areas where I would get whipsawed on FBOs but today is more volatile than usual so I will take that with a grain of salt.
EDIT: the recent FTT I mentioned above at 1402.75 showed another FTT and BO right now at 1403.25 for a long entry. ANyone else see that or am I seeing a whipsaw lol?
Quote from optioncoach:
I actually been a lurker for some time as I tried to read as much in the background info as I can. Still reading as I find this a nice addition to my approach for trading futures.
I started out today with my first trades drawing channels and such. I do not do it yet as detailed as you guys or with all the markings. I tried to just see the bigger picture for each channel adn look for FTTs or actual breakouts.
I will attach my chart in a bit. I was able to make 2.5 points by the time the market actually opened (i.e. in the pre-market off of 4 trades with one losing trade in out of the 4).
My total would have been bigger however on the open when I was short at 1390.50 I covered at 1389.25 because this is still new and I am feeling my way around. Naturaly that candle closed at 1385 so I would have grabbed another 4.25 points. I am not bothered I did not get those additional points because the "approach" got me in that specific entry, I just pulled the trigger fast due to the learning curve. So I could have had about 6 points trading the pre-market to the open alone. Very pleased with that potential.
Naturally after the open I got involved in other trades and stepped away so I missed the breakout that on my chart occured at around 9:55 - 10:00 AM somewhere around 1390, give or take a few points since I am not as adept as this as you guys. However that signal with my lagging entry would still have gotten at worst another 5 points.
While writing this I also jus noticed a FTT at the 10:30 AM 5min bar which would have led to a short entry at 1402.75 (hope this is not just hindsight) and the market is currently at 1399.50 as I write this for another 2 -3 points depending on where the exit would be.
So for a newbie at these channels I can see on a really volatile day how one can steal about 10 - 15 points. I approached quite "pussily" and still grabbed 2.5 myself. I am giong to back study many days and practice drawing but I sill am at the basic level of just channels for right now. I am not grabbing gaussians or left to right or those other terms other than FTT but still seeing the trades at this low level. So I assume with more reading I will get a deeper understanding.
Anyway thanks for all those who detail and summarize. I still see areas where I would get whipsawed on FBOs but today is more volatile than usual so I will take that with a grain of salt.
EDIT: the recent FTT I mentioned above at 1402.75 showed another FTT and BO right now at 1403.25 for a long entry. ANyone else see that or am I seeing a whipsaw lol?
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Spydr, Mak, or others:
Could you comment on the volume and price action of the 10:40 bar, bar 16 on
todays chart?
Thanks.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
I had HVS on bar 10:40 /45, right after I had a FTT.
The short at 1402.75 in hindsight was not a real short signal. The market did
drop a few points but this was just luck due to volatility of the day. So I
might have scalped a few points there but that was not a good entry. The long I
saw come in at the 10:40 bar with that hammer FTT which closed at 1401 or so.
Tha tlong entry was a nice 4 point snatch.
I just grabbed another point on a BO at the 11:20 AM bar. I got whipsawed in
between those trades so I am flat but learning while flat is better while
learning while losing. IN hindsight I see how I should be near 15 points or so
for the day lol.
I will post the chart soon when I have a chance.
Quote from Jander:
Not sure about either of those entries... I had a short early on 10:20 bar and long on 10:35 bar...If you could post your chart we could help a bit better
In any event, welcome!
I could not find HVS definition.... high volatility shizzle?
Quote from Lightbody:
I think that (ftt at10:20 and the next few bars) is a great example of a HVS
Quote from optioncoach:
I could not find HVS definition.... high volatility shizzle?
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from optioncoach:
I just grabbed another point on a BO at the 11:20 AM bar.
Quote from Lightbody:
attached is a chart:
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
I anticipated without problem the FTTs (or they could be called FBOs @ the
LTL if channels are flattened) at 11:00 and 11:35 and both unfolded as I had
imagined.
However, I missed the FTT at 9:50 completely and did not spot the change in
trend till the 10:00 bar was complete.
Spotted the FTT at 09:45, no problem, but completely lost the plot after 10:20. Every FTT seemed to fizzle out, which in hindsight turned out to be a very volatile LTR traverse. The 5 min seemed “too coarse” due to the high volatility, and I ended up widening my long channel 5 times. I found the Gaussians to be particularly difficult to follow. After each FTT I saw a BO of the current RTL but then b2b reappeared. Again with hindsight this looks very clear but it seemed highly confusing at the time.
ym so far
Quote from dkm:
Spotted the FTT at 09:45, no problem, but completely lost the plot after 10:20. Every FTT seemed to fizzle out, which in hindsight turned out to be a very volatile LTR traverse. The 5 min seemed “too coarse” due to the high volatility, and I ended up widening my long channel 5 times. I found the Gaussians to be particularly difficult to follow. After each FTT I saw a BO of the current RTL but then b2b reappeared. Again with hindsight this looks very clear but it seemed highly confusing at the time.
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
I was surprised that today I actually had no trouble following the movement. Especially in the morning everything was clear. Now in the afternoon it looks to me like it wants to just step out of all my channels and then take a new direction.
As a newbie at this style everything looked clearer than it has in the past
following this thread. I think the nice wide swings and really high volatility
makes it easier than those days where the ES ranges 3 - 4 point. On a day like
today the market seems to make long sweeps in channels and breaks out cleanly at
times.
I will want to test this more on days that are more normal as defined by how the
markets have been over the pas few months.
My chart for today....
Quote from optioncoach:
As a newbie at this style everything looked clearer than it has in the past following this thread. I think the nice wide swings and really high volatility makes it easier than those days where the ES ranges 3 - 4 point. On a day like today the market seems to make long sweeps in channels and breaks out cleanly at times.
I will want to test this more on days that are more normal as defined by how the markets have been over the pas few months.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
We've had three cases today where the gaussian switch happens inside
of one 5 minute bar.
I will put together some graphics later to illustrate this.
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
ok every link I have studied does not discuss gaussians and volume's role. I will not slow down the thread and ask for the qeustion to be answered here so a link to previous post/thread where this is covered would be much appreciated lol.
After having a number of reversing FTT's i am long and strong from 1407...
Ye Haaaa...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Words of Wisdom
It's time to get it out of your head "Price would have gone against me." Price,
NEVER goes against anyone. Price doesn't know you exist. We are looking for one
of two things. "Continue" or "Change". This is all there is, and all there will
be. You may miss a signal for change. You may think you have change, instead of
continuation. But you can NEVER have price go against you. Price doesn't know
where you entered, and price doesn't know where you exited.
This isn't a battle. It's a symbiotic relationship. We are not at war with the
market, but rather, our goal is to become the best of friends with it. Get to
know it's moods. When it is sad, we want to be there with it, and ride it down.
When it is happy, we want to be there and ride it higher.
(Attributed mainly to comments made by Spyder in chat)
-Au
Quote from optioncoach:
lol.... actually I was referring to the methods described here, it is spread out over a lot of threads so I am trying my best read what I can.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from makosgu:
Spyder has excellent "summing things up posts". I'll try to find a few. My phone keeps ringing so I couldn't get my DKM post up in any reasonable time...
Since we are revisiting volume gaussians, FWIW, here is a diagram I made some time back to help me understand the gaussian patterns and sequence. It may be helpful to those who are newer to the thread.
Quote from optioncoach:
ok every link I have studied does not discuss gaussians and volume's role. I will not slow down the thread and ask for the qeustion to be answered here so a link to previous post/thread where this is covered would be much appreciated lol.
seems like more and more people are studying the hershey method it seems....
even Steve Tsvard and optionchoach
Thanks for the clues. I will try and get my morning chart up here although be
warned it is just channels and not all the alphabet soup
Last question...... B2B..... R2B...? I am sure it means something ;)
Anything based on logical interpretations and straight-forward applications
will attract a lot of attention. Initially it cannot be any worse than my
approach and hopefully it is even better.
Quote from chiefraven:
seems like more and more people are studying the hershey method it seems.... even Steve Tsvard and optionchoach
Quote from optioncoach:
ok every link I have studied does not discuss gaussians and volume's role. I will not slow down the thread and ask for the qeustion to be answered here so a link to previous post/thread where this is covered would be much appreciated lol.
__________________
ES 1 Mar 2007
I frequently mistake a traverse for a channel and vice versa. It is often the
case that a wide channel will have wide traverses which also have clear
"micro-traverses" within them. So, I end up mistaking a traverse FTT for a
channel FTT but the traverse just ends up wider. This brings me to raise the
following questions:
1. After volatility expansion, I would normally just widen the channel but I see
many examples of steeper channels being drawn. Conversely, when a traverse
widens, the overall channel may take on a gentler slope thus requiring
adjustment to the right trend line. Are there any guidelines as to when it is
appropriate to draw steeper or shallower channels? Is it just a case of
adjusting left and right trend lines so the channels best match the gaussians?
2. In the period from 10:15 to 11:20 today, I ended up adjusting the right trend
line several times for what was probably a form of high volatility stall / LTR
traverse. Was this the right thing to do?
YM
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from dkm:
Spotted the FTT at 09:45, no problem, but completely lost the plot after 10:20. Every FTT seemed to fizzle out, which in hindsight turned out to be a very volatile LTR traverse. The 5 min seemed “too coarse” due to the high volatility, and I ended up widening my long channel 5 times. I found the Gaussians to be particularly difficult to follow. After each FTT I saw a BO of the current RTL but then b2b reappeared. Again with hindsight this looks very clear but it seemed highly confusing at the time.
Here is a quick shot of my channels on a 5-min ES chart I drew live this
morning. I do not add all the extra lines or abbreviations, I just look for the
general channels and FTT which is the easiest thing for me to look for at this
stage as well as breakouts.
TOday was very easy to define channels and some FTTs (in my head based on how I
did it of course). This was my first day so it will not look like yours, but I
simplified it to match the way I see things to make it easier to know when to
get in and out.
I Have A Confession
With all due apologies to those who hate long posts…I tried to make it
shorter but couldn’t.
I have received many thankyou’s for the channels video, and I am appreciative. A
number of pm’s asked me questions like “how long did it take for you to trade
this method?” I am currently LEARNING this method, not trading it. There is a
HUGE difference between reading about something, learning it, doing it and
finally mastering it. I’m telling you all this as a precursor for a very
important lesson I received today.
I have been drawing channels close to daily for 3 months now, with time off for
bad behavior, LOL. I thought, reasonably, that if I can do such a convincing job
on creating a video that teaches this stuff I should AT LEAST be able to sim
trade some forest level FTT’s. I took two trades that failed and missed the
first good trade of the day to boot. I did my damnedest to prove to Spyder that
I did it right and something was missing from my understanding of the method. I
was as convinced as dirt that I was doing it right.
Then, with what can only be called a ridiculous amount of patience on his part,
he lead me to a place where I could recognize what was there but I couldn’t see.
Guess what? I TOTALLY missed drawing what should have been a simple channel
annotation. Why? Because when I got in traffic (took the trade) I forgot what to
do with the steering wheel and pedals (drawing the channel) and I crashed (lost
money).
How many of the nay-sayers of this method just might be guilty of what I am
admitting. And I work damn hard at this. Think about how easy it is to prove
something doesn’t work when you don’t want it to in the first place.
The bottom line is I learned I do not have what I call unconscious competence in
drawing channels. You experience unconscious competence every time you drive and
all of a sudden realize 3 or 4 mile markers have passed you by and didn’t
realize it. It is a form of hypnotic or altered state. I was missing being in
that state. I completely ignored what I instructed you to do in the video. It
became glaringly apparent that I still cannot do channels in my sleep (that is,
unconsciously without having to even think about it).
As some of you know, my wife sits and learns along with me for hours and hours a
day. She presented a powerful metaphor which I’d like to share. How many of you,
experiencing frustration or doubts, feel like what Spyder is teaching is totally
discretionary, guesswork, or art? I certainly have at times. I kept thinking how
if it’s art it’s not objective, it’s not mechanical, it can’t be repeated or
transferred.
Then the smart one in my marriage, who is an artist, basically told my I was
full of s***. She explained how drawing is taught and how even the masters start
a painting. Art, is at the most basic level, not so artful. When learning to
create a painting, you don’t draw objects, you draw shapes. It’s squares and
triangles and circles; NOT tea cups and apples and landscapes. It’s a
straight-forward, repeatable process to create a painting of whatever. She said,
“You draw what you SEE, NOT what you KNOW.” All of a sudden my excuse for bad
trades was taken away. Think about how that made yours truly feel. This ain’t
art. It is repeatable. But to add ANYTHING (like sim trading, stretch squeeze,
whatever) to the mix before you can do the most basic thing at an unconscious
automatic level is to invite pain and perceived failure.
I’m happy I sim traded for that single afternoon, it was the fodder for a great
life lesson. I hope you can learn from my error.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from WGTrader:
Since we are revisiting volume gaussians, FWIW, here is a diagram I made some time back to help me understand the gaussian patterns and sequence. It may be helpful to those who are newer to the thread.
Re: I Have A Confession
Quote from bundlemaker:
With all due apologies to those who hate long posts…I tried to make it shorter but couldn’t.
etc
..
I hope you can learn from my error.
Spyder said the answer to the drill is January 26, 2007.
Would someone with the ability to snag data older than 10 days post a 5 min
chart of the subject day? I don't think I missed it, sorry if I did.
bm: thanks for sharing. you are so right (or should I say, your better half
is so right), we often fail because we trade what we "know", instead of trading
what we see.
I should also share a lesson I learned: it is very IMPORTANT to annotate.
Not just drawing channels, but to annotate your analysis.
Not just annotate some of the points, but to annotate diligently on all the
turns.
Annotation forces you to make an analysis on your Observation .
The act of writing a FTT on the screen is a commitment of your Analysis.
If you do not have strong enough a conviction to commit your analysis, your
Decision to trade might be ill concieved, and your Action might lead
to flawed outcome.
After your action (enter the trade), the FTT annotation becomes a beacon,
signaling you to move into the next cycle of the trading process -- to observe
again, to see if this is a Continuation or a Reversal.
I have missed opportunities because I did not annotate. My analysis were
flip-flopping back and forth. My mind was drifting all over the places. After
much research and review, I came to realize the psychological importance of this
seemingly "beginner's" task.
Quote from bigmoose:
Spyder said the answer to the drill is January 26, 2007.
Would someone with the ability to snag data older than 10 days post a 5 min chart of the subject day? I don't think I missed it, sorry if I did.
what do you guys do if you miss an FTT?
i stop and reverse if the price breaks the last reaction low if its going up or
the last reaction high if the price is trending down.
any other failsafe's you guys have? i can usually spot an ftt after the third
bar after has formed. but on an explosive down move that can be too late
Quote from terminator:
what do you guys do if you miss an FTT?
any other failsafe's you guys have? i can usually spot an ftt after the third bar after has formed. but on an explosive down move that can be too late
Quote from Tums:
My mind was drifting all over the places.
I like the idea of debriefing some real trades this month that either turned
out well or not. I know some of us (myself included) are playing around with
execution (sim trading, real trading, etc), and as many have mentioned, it is a
bit different when you're really in there pressing buttons. You really see what
still needs work and what is gelling.
In my case, I am having a tough time "staying cool" during HVS/flaw type things.
I SUSPECT that's because these past few days there has been so much volatility
that an HVS is 2-4 points tall.
Here is an example of a trade I made today where my "lost my cool" and exited
for a wash, when had I somehow stayed in it I would have netted 8-9 pts. I
entered on the same bar as the FTT, then exited on the third bar after that,
where the HVS lashed back at me. Is it reasonable to exit like this? Should I
have placed some sort of limit sell order just outside the very bottom of the
HVS to catch the potential down move after I closed my initial position? If I am
supposed to be holding here, what is my thought process as the 2.5 pt bar slaps
me in the face?
My entry is perfect here. I can't help but to think that if I was able to "see"
that this was an HVS somehow, that I would have made the 8-9 pts that were on
the table for this quick trade.
Comments or suggestions?
if it is not a reversal, it is a continuation.
stay on until it become risky to do so. (i.e. another FTT.)
(I read this from either Jack, Spyder, or Mak. It is somewhere, but don't ask me
to cite the location, there are just too many pages.)
Quote from Tums:
if it is not a reversal, it is a continuation.
stay on until it become risky to do so. (i.e. another FTT.)
(I read this from either Jack, Spyder, or Mak. It is somewhere, but don't ask me to cite the location, there are just too many pages.)
Quote from Pr0crast:
Here is an example of a trade I made today where my "lost my cool" and exited for a wash, when had I somehow stayed in it I would have netted 8-9 pts. I entered on the same bar as the FTT, then exited on the third bar after that, where the HVS lashed back at me. Comments or suggestions?
__________________
Quote from Pr0crast:
I like the idea of debriefing some real trades this month that either turned out well or not. I know some of us (myself included) are playing around with execution (sim trading, real trading, etc), and as many have mentioned, it is a bit different when you're really in there pressing buttons. You really see what still needs work and what is gelling.
In my case, I am having a tough time "staying cool" during HVS/flaw type things. I SUSPECT that's because these past few days there has been so much volatility that an HVS is 2-4 points tall.
Here is an example of a trade I made today where my "lost my cool" and exited for a wash, when had I somehow stayed in it I would have netted 8-9 pts. I entered on the same bar as the FTT, then exited on the third bar after that, where the HVS lashed back at me. Is it reasonable to exit like this? Should I have placed some sort of limit sell order just outside the very bottom of the HVS to catch the potential down move after I closed my initial position? If I am supposed to be holding here, what is my thought process as the 2.5 pt bar slaps me in the face?
My entry is perfect here. I can't help but to think that if I was able to "see" that this was an HVS somehow, that I would have made the 8-9 pts that were on the table for this quick trade.
Comments or suggestions?
Here is my rookie advice. The snapback closed no higher than your entry or
the previous red bar. i think as long as the trade does not take out the FTT,
you are still in thatbreakout you graphed with the upward slanting channel light
lines. In my experience with trend breakouts, some pullback is normal at times
as long as it does not exceed the breakout move.
In your chart, that snapback looked ominous according to your PRV, but since you
got in on a very nice FTT which was confirmed over the next two bars, you need
more than a pullback to that level to change your thinking, you need a true
reversal where the sellers lose to the buyers. In this case, the buyers came
roaring back but fizzled with lack of volume follow through and lack of breaking
previous bar levels.
This may be different than the method seen here but I think sometimes when you
get in on a FTT short like that with a bar or two of downward movement, wait
longer for a close of that pullback candle to see if it is really a reversal or
simple pullback. The fact that the next bar jumped lower and failed to take out
the high of the previous bar again keeps you in the trade for the next two drop
offs.
Also, after the FTT, I would have drawn a top channel line from the FTT downward
sloping to help confirm the new downward trend.
I know I am newer at this but I do trade the futures a lot and map out moves as
best as I can. That is why I am trying this approach to map it out cleaner.
Quote from Pr0crast:
I like the idea of debriefing some real trades this month that either turned out well or not. I know some of us (myself included) are playing around with execution (sim trading, real trading, etc), and as many have mentioned, it is a bit different when you're really in there pressing buttons. You really see what still needs work and what is gelling.
In my case, I am having a tough time "staying cool" during HVS/flaw type things. I SUSPECT that's because these past few days there has been so much volatility that an HVS is 2-4 points tall.
Here is an example of a trade I made today where my "lost my cool" and exited for a wash, when had I somehow stayed in it I would have netted 8-9 pts. I entered on the same bar as the FTT, then exited on the third bar after that, where the HVS lashed back at me. Is it reasonable to exit like this? Should I have placed some sort of limit sell order just outside the very bottom of the HVS to catch the potential down move after I closed my initial position? If I am supposed to be holding here, what is my thought process as the 2.5 pt bar slaps me in the face?
My entry is perfect here. I can't help but to think that if I was able to "see" that this was an HVS somehow, that I would have made the 8-9 pts that were on the table for this quick trade.
Comments or suggestions?
THis was what I was getting at with respect to adding the downward sloping
trendling from the top of the FTT which would keep you in the short despite the
snap pullback in the 4th bar after the FTT.
Quote from FilterTip:
I am dealing with this by using the RTL of the tape as an exit point, using the top of the FTT bar and the top of the next bar ( as in your example of a down move) to ancore and project.
Not sure if that's correct but it takes care of an exit with profit and allows the trade to continue if RTL is not broken.
Quote from Pr0crast:
I like the idea of debriefing some real trades this month that either turned out well or not. I know some of us (myself included) are playing around with execution (sim trading, real trading, etc), and as many have mentioned, it is a bit different when you're really in there pressing buttons. You really see what still needs work and what is gelling.
In my case, I am having a tough time "staying cool" during HVS/flaw type things. I SUSPECT that's because these past few days there has been so much volatility that an HVS is 2-4 points tall.
Here is an example of a trade I made today where my "lost my cool" and exited for a wash, when had I somehow stayed in it I would have netted 8-9 pts. I entered on the same bar as the FTT, then exited on the third bar after that, where the HVS lashed back at me. Is it reasonable to exit like this? Should I have placed some sort of limit sell order just outside the very bottom of the HVS to catch the potential down move after I closed my initial position? If I am supposed to be holding here, what is my thought process as the 2.5 pt bar slaps me in the face?
My entry is perfect here. I can't help but to think that if I was able to "see" that this was an HVS somehow, that I would have made the 8-9 pts that were on the table for this quick trade.
Comments or suggestions?
What I failed to do was continue to watch that RTL for another break which would
have gotten me back into the short.
Forest and Trees
Pr0Crast's Sim trade provides an excellent segue into what I hoped to discuss
this evening - falling into the clutches of the next lower (or beyond)
resolution level and not making it back.
Attached, I have shown two different Gaussian formations - one much larger than
the other in an effort to assist you in determining:
"How Large is the Forest?"
First some reminders. When you find yourself in a Point Three channel, you need
to know which color bars dominate. It seems simply enough, yet too often
we 'forget' which side controls the day at this point in time. Note the first
highlighted area of the attached chart. We begin where Price breaks through the
'sea' green up channel (left side of chart) providing increasing volume as Price
heads lower. Good so far. As we approach Point Two, we see a black volume and
Price Bar. Uh oh? Is it a flaw? Is it an FTT? Is it a WTF? We tense up and
wonder if the trend has ended because we forget Price is about to do (or more
accurately going to attempt to do) exactly as we should expect - retrace
back and form a Point Three. In this example, Price never makes it back to the
right side trend line. In fact, price heads even lower on the next bar. Only
later does price actually make it to the right side. Note the black volume bars
- they are decreasing (just as expected). Price even helps us out by instantly
reversing as it formed a Point Three - heading lower quite quickly - and showing
increasing red volume (again, as expected) all the way down. No need to worry
about mysterious black bars within this Forest. It's simply Price doing (or
attempting to do) what it does all the time - attempt to retrace to form a Point
Three.
The above red Point Three Down Channel formed the Final Leg of our 'Kelly' Green
Point Three (Big Red Circle). From there, we see (first) decreasing black (as
expected), and then in one large bar, we traverse the entire channel for the
break out. While certainly unexpected, we to receive increasing black volume
every step of the way - all the way, to the top.
Now, here is where it starts to get a bit messy. In the third highlighted area
we have a Point Three red Downtrend once again (Medium Red Circles). If you
watch the red volume bars within the highlighted areas, you see exactly what we
would expect, decreasing red volume, for our retrace. However, these increasing
black volume bars often confuse us and make us wonder, "Did we do the right
thing here?"
Again, Price is doing nothing more than what we would expect. Price is
attempting to retrace through this channel. Fails. Continues on, and attempts
the process once again. On A Tree Try level, we have FTT to FBO over and over
again. When you find yourself confused as to direction (such as in this case
here) ask yourself, "What is my context?" Down channel? Retrace? Of a Big Kelly
Green Forest? Oh well then, I have nothing to worry about until I see a Point
Three (opposite direction) or an FTT. IF you do not understand the size of the
Forest in which you find yourself operating, you will freak out, lose
your cool or just plain exit out of frustration.
After we hit Bottom, the blue arrow takes us back up to the top where we repeat
the process when encountering an FTT.
However, just so you understand about the size of the Forest. Note the Brown
Arrows among the Gaussians. This Very large Kelly green Forest shows us how we
go from Retrace to Reversal (small red circle in volume pane) over an hour and
15 minute period of time. This is important to note due to what happened just
before the last highlighted area. Had you forgotten to note the decreasing black
volume, you may have seen the price formation as a Point Three Uptrend
(14:30 - 15:05) and found yourself on the wrong side of the market.
Had you drawn in that formation (See dotted pink lines), the bar just before the
Point Three of the Down Channel would have ben your FTT. Now decreasing black
volume would have told you in advance of the FTT (pink circled) that this simply
wasn't right providing you ample opportunity to reverse and catch the express
train lower. Note again how over the 'big picture' we see decreasing to
increasing red volume - just as we see it on a smaller scale.
Always know your context (How large a Forest in which you currently find
yourself operating) and avoid a very common error - ending up on the wrong side
of the market.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Ahhh, this helps a lot. It is so easy to get distracted by something and not "see" what is really going on. Debriefing like this is pure gold.
The Elephant in the Room
I've mentioned this to Spyder already:
The elephant in the room is: how will you perform when real money is on the
line. The detractors focus on this while we are learning; they have a point
although they are also normally very close minded, damaged and negative (for
whatever reason).
I'm suggesting a rationed use of real money or paper trading (for fun) say once
or twice a week for everyone. If you lose 2 points - stop. If you have 2 points
profit going into a FTT then reverse. Wash as often as you like. Something like
that. See how you do, how your heart rate and breathing responds etc. Then do
debriefs and real time monitoring, return to calm. Eventually you should find
this calm monitoring state when real money is on the line.
For me I can ace the paper trading all day, I mean it is ridiculous. Then I open
my account and I sometimes freeze when I see the FTT (the detractors will jump
on me now - I don't care).
I wait for just a little more confirmation - it's real money you see. Then it
moves as anticipated and my emotions get inflamed (a little) and if I don't
chase this move I'm off balance for the next one (probably counter trend and
more risky to boot). I've got FTTs marked on my Nikkei chart as I type this that
I did not trade this morning: 270 points missed (conservatively) and its only 90
minutes into the session. Maybe I need to decide more clearly if I am just
monitoring (MA) or trading (MADA) for the day (apologies for thinking out loud).
I don't want to get to October and not have more experience in the line of fire.
Without detracting from Spyder's very well structured and thought out syllabus,
does anyone else think this is a good idea? I know we are all free to do
whatever we want!
P1
Re: The Elephant in the Room
Quote from PointOne:
For me I can ace the paper trading all day, I mean it is ridiculous. Then I open my account and I sometimes freeze when I see the FTT (the detractors will jump on me now - I don't care).
My paper trading has
been sick.
Without detracting from Spyder's very well structured and thought out syllabus, does anyone else think this is a good idea? I know we are all free to do whatever we want!
Re: The Elephant in the Room
Quote from PointOne:
Without detracting from Spyder's very well structured and thought out syllabus, does anyone else think this is a good idea? I know we are all free to do whatever we want!
__________________
Re: Forest and Trees
Quote from Spydertrader:
Pr0Crast's Sim trade provides an excellent segue into what I hoped to discuss this evening - falling into the clutches of the next lower (or beyond) resolution level and not making it back.
Attached, I have shown two different Gaussian formations - one much larger than the other in an effort to assist you in determining:
"How Large is the Forest?"
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Quote from Pr0crast:
Again, not to detract from the syllabus, but I think this month is a perfect opportunity for those of us who are comfy with the gaussian stuff to talk/debrief about actual trades more and find out where the "kinks" are so we can work them out together before piling on the next layer of complexity. [/B]
Symmetery
Bundlemaker:
Thank you for sharing your bloody/true statement about your learning
progressiveness. First warn is first armed.
Yes, most of the time "symmetery" is what I see in price movement. Such as
"Boomerang", is what I see of Tuesday's price changes/movements.
Your patience and diligence will be greatly rewarded.
And:
".....that which we are,we are, one equal temper of heroic hearts, made weak by
time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and NOT TO YIELD."
---A. Tennyson---
Nikkei - feel free to ignore
Today's Nikkei chart for those interested. AM was well behaved (like a smooth
downhill race course), the PM was more technical with a lot of HVS (like moguls
/ bumps). Note pace change.
Forest view FTT kept you on the right side all day although holding through the
HVS is tough (fan from Pt1 repeatedly) as TL is walked across.
(If this is useful I will continue to post NK and DAX charts as I cannot
contribute as much to the ES discussion.)
Re: Nikkei - feel free to ignore
Quote from PointOne:
(If this is useful I will continue to post NK and DAX charts as I cannot contribute as much to the ES discussion.)
__________________
Quote from Pr0crast:
I like the idea of debriefing some real trades this month that either turned out well or not. I know some of us (myself included) are playing around with execution (sim trading, real trading, etc), and as many have mentioned, it is a bit different when you're really in there pressing buttons. You really see what still needs work and what is gelling.
In my case, I am having a tough time "staying cool" during HVS/flaw type things. I SUSPECT that's because these past few days there has been so much volatility that an HVS is 2-4 points tall.
Here is an example of a trade I made today where my "lost my cool" and exited for a wash, when had I somehow stayed in it I would have netted 8-9 pts. I entered on the same bar as the FTT, then exited on the third bar after that, where the HVS lashed back at me. Is it reasonable to exit like this? Should I have placed some sort of limit sell order just outside the very bottom of the HVS to catch the potential down move after I closed my initial position? If I am supposed to be holding here, what is my thought process as the 2.5 pt bar slaps me in the face?
My entry is perfect here. I can't help but to think that if I was able to "see" that this was an HVS somehow, that I would have made the 8-9 pts that were on the table for this quick trade.
Comments or suggestions?
Re: The Elephant in the Room
Quote from PointOne:
I've mentioned this to Spyder already:
The elephant in the room is: how will you perform when real money is on the line.
If you lose 2 points - stop. If you have 2 points profit going into a FTT then reverse.
Re: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Quote from ivob:
because unconsciously you're not convinced the method works if you follow the rules.
Hi all,
I have a question about FTT's. A very important part of this method is
identifying the FTT's.
Is there anything you can say about the FTT's. What kind of FTT's are reliable
and which ones are more likely to be a flaw? There must be a difference between
them.
For example I like the FTT where a bar stops like two ticks before LTL and then
quickly snaps back. I like it because (for me) it is obvious and risk is (IMO)
limited because when price does touch LTL you can get out immediately and this
is not far from your point of entry. Also I like FTT's that have much higher
volume than the bar before it. I don't like FTT's when there's another peak in
the same channel and the FTT goes exactly as far. These often end up in
laterals. I have problems identifying FTT's that are stretched out over several
bars. I find FTT's where the bar is taller than the bars around it reliable. I
dislike FTT's in a channel that was just formed one bar before it (these often
are not FTT's). I like FTT's with a large shadow on one side. I do not like
FTT's when price stays on the same level a for a long time (after all how good
can the trade be if everyone can get in)
These are just my observations. I am very interested in reading your opinion
about this so pls share.
regards,
Ivo
Re: Nikkei - feel free to ignore
Quote from PointOne:
Today's Nikkei chart for those interested. AM was well behaved (like a smooth downhill race course), the PM was more technical with a lot of HVS (like moguls / bumps). Note pace change.
Forest view FTT kept you on the right side all day although holding through the HVS is tough (fan from Pt1 repeatedly) as TL is walked across.
(If this is useful I will continue to post NK and DAX charts as I cannot contribute as much to the ES discussion.)
Re: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Quote from Pr0crast:
Again, not to detract from the syllabus, but I think this month is a perfect opportunity for those of us who are comfy with the gaussian stuff to talk/debrief about actual trades more and find out where the "kinks" are so we can work them out together before piling on the next layer of complexity. [/B]
Scalped a point on the FTT at the blue arrow and got out at the red arrow at
the 20-period EMA. Next bar is sideways after that while I was posting so will
just watch. Still newer than most here
Quote from optioncoach:
Scalped a point on the FTT at the blue arrow and got out at the red arrow at the 20-period EMA. Next bar is sideways after that while I was posting so will just watch. Still newer than most here
I am not new to futures trading, just adding in some of these ideas to what I
do and finding it blends well. I have to simplify things first to see it clear.
I am posting it here to share and get feedback in case I am missing something.
For example if it was a horrible entry and I just got luck than I would like to
know
Quote from optionpro007:
My goodness, I am really new, but you.....
There is not trading out of RTH for straters.
I don't know how to handle these type of bars. I'm expecting a decrease of red volume, but %-wise get more. So this should have been called an FTT. Yet, when I was watching it, I knew it wasn't.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Bundlemaker,
I also wanted to take the opportunity to thank you for your very well done movie
explaining channels.
It cleared a lot of things out, including having the correct scaling !
Here is my chart from this am so far...
In my opinion the bar with the arrow does not tell you enough on its own even
with volume picking up and a move counter to the trend. I think given the range
of that bar and the previous 2 bars, I personally would wait for the next bar
for some sort of comfirmation or what is happening.
Here is what I see. If you add the 20 SMA or EMA you will see that that bar
closes at the moving average support. Also the bar previous to the arrow bar had
nice volume and closed at the high for that bar. The bar with the arrow had a
little less volume.
Also I drew a new upper channel line connecting the arrow bar and the 2 before
it above and below and created a new channel. The arrow bar bounced off of the
LTL or upper channel line and pulled back which I assume would be expected in
the trading in the channel unless there was a breakout. The next bar dipped to
the RTL or lower trend channel line and bounced off on strong volume as well as
stayed above the 20 EMA.
Again, this is just my view but since you drew a channel on the bars that went
from Point 2 to Point 3 on your chart, draw a channel on the bars that bounced
off of Point 3 and you will see what I mean.
Quote from bundlemaker:
I don't know how to handle these type of bars. I'm expecting a decrease of red volume, but %-wise get more. So this should have been called an FTT. Yet, when I was watching it, I knew it wasn't.
Quote from bundlemaker:
I don't know how to handle these type of bars. I'm expecting a decrease of red volume, but %-wise get more. So this should have been called an FTT. Yet, when I was watching it, I knew it wasn't.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from Lightbody:
I had to grin and bear it. I was trying to get channels all over the place. Finally, I had to realize I wasn't looking at the forest. I took off all of my channels and established my pts 1,2,3. I have been a happy camper today since that point 3 as seen in the blue channel of the attached.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
"How Large is the Forest?"
My chart so far....
Looks more like Mr. Green.....
Quote from Mr_Black:
My chart so far....
I still have some trouble whit volume....
This one is better I think....start to comprehend Price /Volume...
little by little
Quote from Mr_Black:
This one is better I think....start to comprehend Price /Volume...
little by little
Probably they have 'Volume' indicator in their charting application
some were....
Quote from virgintrader:
home with flu watching a still learning
Question:
I deal with IB and use their charting feature of their software to draw my channels....however, i can't seem to find the ES or YM charts to come with volume...am I missing anything?
tks
Quote from virgintrader:
I deal with IB and use their charting feature of their software to draw my channels....however, i can't seem to find the ES or YM charts to come with volume...am I missing anything?
__________________
Quote from virgintrader:
home with flu watching a still learning
Question:
I deal with IB and use their charting feature of their software to draw my channels....however, i can't seem to find the ES or YM charts to come with volume...am I missing anything?
tks
Quote from bundlemaker:
I don't know how to handle these type of bars. I'm expecting a decrease of red volume, but %-wise get more. So this should have been called an FTT. Yet, when I was watching it, I knew it wasn't.
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
In bundlemaker's video on channels he mentions a tip Spyder gave him
regarding annotating:
"Let the bar close (a) -- then let the next bar (b) close -- THEN involve (a) in
your annotations"
This is so cool.
This puts you squarely in non-prediction mode.
All of the tools we are learning here shrink this wait time. From 9 minutes 59
seconds backwards... until you hit a point where you have necc / sufficient
information to reverse, hold or stay sidelined.
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
just made this fast scalp....
I tend to slack off at end of month because I know I will get more tools and
we all know more tools are better than fewer tools, right? Well, March comes
with the shocking news, no new tools, do with what you have. This new reality
upsets my well laid plan; more tools each month, will eventually make me a
better trader. Facing with a prospect of using old tools for another month make
me giving them a closer look. I think I just 'discover' some more of their
usefulness.
strange looking chart today, there is some sort of 3D cube on the chart.
ES 2 Mar 07
Struggling with the increase in volatility.
Quote from BA_Trader:
FWIW - I have a different volume total for the bar at 10:30... who is your data provider?
My 10:30 bar is taller then the 10:35 bar (the one you are asking about)
OK, this may sound crazy unless you get what I'm talking about. If it clicks,
this is for you, if it doesn't, place on back burner if you find yourself
frustrated later.
When monitoring and annotating charts, we often, almost continuously, find
ourselves having to identify something. "Is this increasing?" "Is this
decreasing" etc etc. I find this a very difficult exercise, because usually the
answer is not black and white. Uncertainty rules and then emotions can take over
easily.
The solution is to give yourself a different question to ask. This can make all
the difference in the world for some of you. Change the question from "is it
this or that" to "is it more like this or more like that"? That might seem like
a meaningless shift. It isn't. It takes your mind to a different place of
reasoning. Try it.
In addition, try reversing the logic of your reasoning. Move from deduction to
induction. Don't look at a piece of chart and ask "what does this mean". Instead
try "if this is a point 3 of a new up channel, then volume should be doing such
and such." Assume your conclusion is correct (instead of questioning yourself to
death) and then ask what the data RIGHT NOW must be to support that conclusion.
This boils down to testing your conclusion with new data and keeps you in the
NOW. Continuation.....change.....continuation....change. Use the thought process
I just presented and it HAS to keep your mind on continuation versus change.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
today's chart
Another great day to follow Spydertrader and the JH method.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from BA_Trader:
In bundlemaker's video on channels he mentions a tip Spyder gave him regarding annotating:
I wanted to make a separate post on the YM leading the ES and how I was
finally able to see that. Frankly, I didn't have any doubt about YM leading ES,
I trusted Spyder, but I just wasn't seeing it.
What I did, to focus on that part of the YM that gives you this leading
information was to skip drawing any channels on YM EXCEPT the tapes. By doing
that I end up ONLY focusing on that small part of the YM chart that has bearing
on my current decison process.
I have my chart windows overlapping, so usually I can't even see the YM. That
keeps me off that fine resolution tool when I shouldn't be there. When I need to
see YM, I just click on the little bit showing to bring the chart up front.
When I think I see an FTT on the coarse level (for example, the high of the
15:15 bar today) I jump over to the YM, throw on the current tape (an up tape at
that point) and watch for the tape to break to the down side.
This procedure caught three forest level FTT's today. As I recall, all FTT's
were called withing 3 ticks of the best price.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from optioncoach:
I been looking but cannot find the link to the video, can someone who is as helpful as always provide a link
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from Mr_Black:
just made this fast scalp....
Today's ES. I had some difficulty in the morning (over traded), but by by late morning things started to gel a bit better. I havn't tallied my log sheet yet, but I'm pretty sure I'm positive! It's just paper though.
YM vs ES chart
Sorry, chart didn't stick first go 'round.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Updates
In an effort to assist those following along, I have altered my annotation
style to include only The Forest Level Resolution. Keeping in mind my
previous post with respect to "How Big is the Forest?" Note the Gaussian changes
which occur. Are they different on my chart when compared to your own? Do you
'see' things as they are, or as you'd want them to be? Are you monitoring on the
correct resolution level, or do you only think you monitor
correctly? In an effort to assist you to know the proper resolution
level, I have added the following guidelines for data gathering.
Forest Level - Point Three Channels and Gaussians
Tree Level - FTT's (and the above)
Limb Level - Tapes (and the above)
Leaves Level - FTT's of Tapes (and above)
Bug Level - Intra-bar Changes (and above)
If you find yourself confused about a bar changing color halfway through a five
minute period, are you really focused on the Forest? 'Cuz it sounds an
awful lot like you are looking for bugs, on a leaf, on a limb, on a tree, in the
Forest.
Stay focused on your current resolution level to allow you to properly
learn about the next finer resolution level. From the Forest, you can
learn about FTT's and flaws without concern for loss. From the Trees, you can
learn about the tapes and how they contain temporary micro-trends throughout the
day. Everyone must build a strong foundation at their current level of
expertise, before moving forward.
I hope you find the above information helpful, and I'll post today's charts
after adding some requested information.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hi everyone, I'm back after a "hershey hiatus" making money by other methods.
My methods were more akin to investing than trading, though my time frame was
fairly short-term. Basically I was taking the "best of the best" from the
stocktables.com site and buying them.
Needless to say the bull run appears to be over for a bit and I'm in cash after
having a good ride up. What's a long-only investor to do when the bull market
ends? LOL
This idea of YM leading ES is intriguing, particularly after I recently saw
someone say the opposite: "ES leads YM"
These folks are trading YM and watching ES for the leading indication! Go
figure.
Learned something from your charts actually.
When on a downward trending channel and you have a breakout you add another
parallel channel line. This line extends the channel wider so you can still see
the overall "Forrest".
I see it as the trending channel being the ground floor when moving lower
and when there is a breakout you add another parallel channel line as adding in
a basement.
On the other side when trading in a nice upward channel and there is a breakout
to the upside of the channel, you add another higher up parallel channel line.
This is like trading on the 2nd floor and adding an attic.
By adding an attic or basement to your channels you expand the
house but keep the structure. This way when the market reverses you still have
your original point of reference on sharp volatile days like today.
For example, from 11:00 to 12:30 we had a very nice Forrest Ground Floor channel
moving lower. At 12:30 or so bar we had a breakout lower that pulled back and
then moved lower again and pulled back allowing a new basement to be added. The
basement was wateright and did not leak and in a bar or 2 we had a new move back
to the ground floor of the house. At around 1:00 the price moved to the 2nd
Floor but no new attic was reached and price continued to move lower.
Your chart shows this perfectly.
Quote from WGTrader:
Today's ES. I had some difficulty in the morning (over traded), but by by late morning things started to gel a bit better. I havn't tallied my log sheet yet, but I'm pretty sure I'm positive! It's just paper though.
Attached is a chart which annotates what I was referring to below.
Quote from optioncoach:
Learned something from your charts actually.
When on a downward trending channel and you have a breakout you add another parallel channel line. This line extends the channel wider so you can still see the overall "Forrest".
I see it as the trending channel being the ground floor when moving lower and when there is a breakout you add another parallel channel line as adding in a basement.
On the other side when trading in a nice upward channel and there is a breakout to the upside of the channel, you add another higher up parallel channel line. This is like trading on the 2nd floor and adding an attic.
By adding an attic or basement to your channels you expand the house but keep the structure. This way when the market reverses you still have your original point of reference on sharp volatile days like today.
For example, from 11:00 to 12:30 we had a very nice Forrest Ground Floor channel moving lower. At 12:30 or so bar we had a breakout lower that pulled back and then moved lower again and pulled back allowing a new basement to be added. The basement was wateright and did not leak and in a bar or 2 we had a new move back to the ground floor of the house. At around 1:00 the price moved to the 2nd Floor but no new attic was reached and price continued to move lower.
Your chart shows this perfectly.
Quote from optioncoach:
Attached is a chart which annotates what I was referring to below.
__________________
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart. If you have questions after reviewing the chart, please do
not hesitate to ask. Please note how I annotated the Gaussians compared to your
view at the time.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from stevegee58:
[B
This idea of YM leading ES is intriguing, particularly after I recently saw someone say the opposite: "ES leads YM"
These folks are trading YM and watching ES for the leading indication! Go figure. [/B]
What Wasn't That? And More Like This Than That
Quote from bundlemaker:
The solution is to give yourself a different question to ask. This can make all the difference in the world for some of you. Change the question from "is it this or that" to "is it more like this or more like that"? That might seem like a meaningless shift. It isn't. It takes your mind to a different place of reasoning. Try it.
In addition, try reversing the logic of your reasoning. Move from deduction to induction. Don't look at a piece of chart and ask "what does this mean". Instead try "if this is a point 3 of a new up channel, then volume should be doing such and such." Assume your conclusion is correct (instead of questioning yourself to death) and then ask what the data RIGHT NOW must be to support that conclusion.
This boils down to testing your conclusion with new data and keeps you in the NOW. Continuation.....change.....continuation....change. Use the thought process I just presented and it HAS to keep your mind on continuation versus change.
Spyder,
Today I used MAK's excellent PRV tool in addition to having my 5-min ES and
2-min YM charts on my screen. The PRV worksheet is a great tool to monitor the
bar volume. I also had a 15-min ES chart that I looked at every so often to make
sure I was getting a bigger picture view. So I'm wondering about what would make
an efficient hardware configuration so that one can clearly see the PRV model,
the 5-min ES, the 2-min YM and perhaps a bigger ES view. I have a 22" monitor
but everything seems cramped. I can switch views the views back and forth, but
that gets annoying. Also, because MAK's model eats quite a bit of CPU time, I'm
thinking of running that separately on my laptop. I'm curious how many monitors
you use and generally what kind of setup you use and generally any
recommendations you may have to make the process as efficient as possible. I'm
sure others have wondered about this as well. I hope I'm not sidetracking the
discussion, but was just wondering (and thinking ahead!)
Thanks.
my squeaky cleaaaannn forest chart
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES Chart. If you have questions after reviewing the chart, please do not hesitate to ask. Please note how I annotated the Gaussians compared to your view at the time.
- Spydertrader
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES Chart. If you have questions after reviewing the chart, please do not hesitate to ask. Please note how I annotated the Gaussians compared to your view at the time.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from optionpro007:
There is a plainly visible mistake in your chart. Should I mention it ?
__________________
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Of Course.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from optionpro007:
There is a plainly visible mistake in your chart. Should I mention it ? In my view if a green TL would have been drawn at the top of the first bar, it would have noted the third's bar volatility expansion and that would have made your green #2 your first Green FTT.. Am I correct ? Cheers.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
No. One cannot go 'back in time' and attempt to create an uptrend where not existed. Bar Two makes a lower low when compared to Bar One. The market does not head higher until Price begins to come off this low point. One can use only two successive bars to draw tapes, but the 'Point Two' of a Taped Channel cannot occur 'behind' Point One. We annotate out into the future, not into the past.
Hope that provided some clarity.
- Spydertrader
Hopefully next week I can start posting my charts with entries and exits. I
know I use this approach a little differently than all here but I am focusing on
the channels and trend confirmations or reversals (i.e. FTTs, BO or FBOs). This
is meshing well with my own approach so I am enjoying the learning process.
Forgive the questions but I am trying to do my best to dive into the material
before asking what has already been answered.
Thanks to Spyder for the volatility line descritopn of my basement and attic.
The basement and attic analogy help me visualize it since the market has to
leave the basement and cross into the 2d floor before entering the attic and it
is easy at times to spot when it starts to go up the steps but falls down (FTT).
Some of you do not have the 20-period EMA (or SMA if it suits you) on your
chart. Trust me that it plays a significant role for support and resistance
along the day and can even act as a trailing stop to not got shaken out of
normal intra-trend reversals.
thanks..
Quote from optioncoach:
Some of you do not have the 20-period EMA (or SMA if it suits you) on your chart. Trust me that it plays a significant role for support and resistance along the day and can even act as a trailing stop to not got shaken out of normal intra-trend reversals.
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from PointOne:
The
11:15 FTT
11:20 Pt1 confirmed
11:50 R2R
12:10 Pt 3
was a super PV sequence.
Hold until 13:30 or 14:15 for about 15 points.
ES was a lot smoother than the DAX over the same period (HVS and fanning to deal with in Europe) but the change signals happen in exactly the same bar. One difference worth noting is that the DAX moved over 60 pts on the same signals. Make of that what you will. As Jack Bauer might say, "Copy that!"
Spyder,
That's an extremely helpful chart, it'll make a great reference. I do have a
couple of questions about it.
According to the beginner rules, we enter on an FTT and exit on an FBO. Doesn't
that mean that in the blue section with multiple FTTs/FBOs we should reverse on
the first FTT, then follow with mulitple exits and entrances (long) until we
come to the final BO?
I actually held through that period, waiting for a more dramatic FTT or the BO,
but I didn't feel comfortable doing so.
Second, here you use volatility expansions to cover the final move down, but
elsewhere with similar sudden drops you draw steeper channels. It doesn't really
matter here since the day ends, but are there any guidelines as to which
approach to use?
Thanks,
palinuro
Palinuro Questions
Quote from palinuro:
That's an extremely helpful chart, it'll make a great reference. I do have a couple of questions about it.
Quote from palinuro:
According to the beginner rules, we enter on an FTT and exit on an FBO. Doesn't that mean that in the blue section with multiple FTTs/FBOs we should reverse on the first FTT, then follow with multiple exits and entrances (long) until we come to the final BO?
Quote from palinuro:
I actually held through that period, waiting for a more dramatic FTT or the BO, but I didn't feel comfortable doing so.
Quote from palinuro:
Second, here you use volatility expansions to cover the final move down, but elsewhere with similar sudden drops you draw steeper channels. It doesn't really matter here since the day ends, but are there any guidelines as to which approach to use?
__________________
In this chart I am trying to confirm points 1,2 and 3 whit Volume
Gaussians.....Please show me if i dont get this points right....
It seems that from point 1 to point 2 must be confirmed whit B2B
or R2R Volume pattern
May be this is more clear what I think....
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES Chart. If you have questions after reviewing the chart, please do not hesitate to ask. Please note how I annotated the Gaussians compared to your view at the time.
- Spydertrader
Hi ES666YM,
I would suggest that it is a name that was just picked because they 'look' like
a Gaussian distribution, i.e. low -> high -> low.
Quote from ES666YM:
Hi,
Been following this, but hung up on something: How are the "Gaussian"s Gaussian? Is that just a name someone picked or do they actually have some connection to Gaussian functions/distributions?
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
There's this FTT where you mention "A significant portion of this bar is red volume". What exactly do you mean by this? I mean this information would support that it is not an FTT but it was one. Also this bar ends higher than where it opened and ended almost at its high.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from PointOne:
I call these reversal bars: it dips down, does the FTT, pace pauses if you are lucky and then PRV increases as it begins the reverse (red becomes black).
I color code bars that do this in real time so I get a heads up. From my limited experience they are 'reliable'.
Hope that helps and you don't mind me jumping in to answer.
How many refer to "a Gaussian" without really knowing what a Gaussian is?
Do you even know what a normal distribution is, how to determine it, and
correctly utilize it's properties?
I ask this, as an example, because I want people to think harder(?) about what
Jack is presenting to you all. What he presents goes much deeper than what's on
the surface.
Continue to learn/THINK... and then some.
-kt
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
Okay, I understand. But you need to see substantial black volume else I would not call it reverse. We need red but certainly also we need black. Or is it just enough to see a lot of red volume and see this bar ending higher on small black volume?
One could say "despite all this red volume price was not able to continue to LTL, so it's an FTT". One could also say despite all this red volume price was not able to continue going to LTL and a lot of black volume came in half way".
I suppose both type of FTT's exists. My observation is that volume is the most important because we would need even more volume for price to continue going down. But we do need some type of reversal or price ending higher which it does, after all it's a black bar. So this is why I didn't understand it when Spyder writes that bar has substantial RED volume. Isn't it enough to know that the bar has substantial volume (more volume than surrounding bars) and it ends black?
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from PointOne:
I want to be careful in my wording here: volume does not really have a color, price bars do............
.....but sooner or later you have to look at the intra-bar detail and think about supply and demand balances especially during change.
Re: Palinuro Questions
Quote from Spydertrader:
Hope that helps.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
There's this FTT where you mention "A significant portion of this bar is red volume". What exactly do you mean by this?
Quote from ivob:
I mean this information would support that it is not an FTT but it was one.
Quote from ivob:
Also this bar ends higher than where it opened and ended almost at its high.
Quote from ivob:
Are you talking about red volume while the bar was being formed?
Quote from ivob:
If yes, I suppose it would be wise to wait before entering (assuming you enter on FTT) until two bars later which also was an FTT but with black volume.
Quote from ivob:
I just want to verify if I am seeing this correctly.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from FilterTip:
May I ask about the PVR ? Is this where we assess how much vol we have within the first 30 secs of the bar in order to give a projection of what kind of vol we might have for the entire 5 min bar..?
__________________
If you all are worried about what the volume is doing inside a five minute bar, why don't you look at a one minute volume chart? An intelligent post here recently to that effect by BA_Trader seemed to be completely ignored. I promise you that you will find it utterly fascinating to know for real, rather than hypothesizing. You might even find it interesting to quantify it by coding the patterns you see and applying binary decision threshold tests and comparing them to similarly quantified price patterns.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Quote from hypostomus:
If you all are worried about what the volume is doing inside a five minute bar, why don't you look at a one minute volume chart?
Spyder
I'm glad you referenced the multiple ftt's in that one area and reminded that at
the forest level they dont matter. When I saw those I wondered how you would
annotate that zone. I saw those and felt it was similar to some action on
Thursday around the same time of day. I got chopped anticipating a bo, never
pays to break the rules. I started watching the cumulative delta which was
steadily dropping while price was chopping in the channel. Eventually the drop
came. Again Friday there was similar action but I learned from Thursday and
entered a couple times at the rtl.
Most of the day I spend watching the market while at work. I can't watch close
enough to observe pv action within the 5 minute bar. I plot pv and delta on the
1 minute fractal so I can see whats going on, with my channels staying at the
forest level. I don't understand why we don't drop down to that fractal to
observe this. It seems more stressful to try to watch a 5 min. bar that closely
and decide what PRV is doind the whole time. I suppose after enough practice you
just see it and maybe that is the point your trying to get people to. I just
don't have the time most of the day to watch that close due to interuptions.
Guess I answered my own ?
I've tried multiple techniques to trade the ES and find this method a better fit
for me. I've had the most relaxing entries this week that I've ever had.
Thanks to all that make this possible.
Quote from hypostomus:
If you all are worried about what the volume is doing inside a five minute bar, why don't you look at a one minute volume chart? An intelligent post here recently to that effect by BA_Trader seemed to be completely ignored.
__________________
You have a knack for putting things in perspective, Spyderman.
Quote from ticktrade:
I suppose after enough practice you just see it and maybe that is the point your trying to get people to. I just don't have the time most of the day to watch that close due to interruptions. Guess I answered my own ?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Monitor the Gaussians at the correct resolution level just as you do with price.
- Spydertrader
[/B]
Is anyone here using Quotetracker?
For determining PRV of important bars I have found it's pace indicator useful.
It displays volume activity as a percentage of preceeding volume activity. For
example, it could display 60% on the setting one minute which means volume
activity of the last minute is 60% of the average volume of all minutes that
day.
I find it useful to watch this indicator (which is right on top of the graph).
For example bar is red and the indicator says 150%. Bar goes 6 ticks up and is
green and indicator says 210%. Bar turns red again, indicator is lower again. So
we know dominant volume in this example is black. You can actually see the
percentages go up or down quickly as price is moving in a certain direction.
Just wanted to mention this, maybe interesting for people already using QT.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from Pr0crast:
Congrats on making it this far.
I suppose now is the appropriate time to present volume 2 of the journal pdf compilation. As usual, please PM me if I missed anything worth including, or if you find any broken links, typos, or formatting errors. I've also reposted the link to the volume 1 pdf in case anyone missed it.
January - ES Chart: Price, Volume, Channels, and the FTT
February - The YM Leads the ES
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Note the attached chart. If you cannot 'see' the bar marked as "This Bar" as having (initially) characteristics associated more closely with the 'increasing red' portion of the Gaussian Curve, then later changing (within the bar itself) to characteristics more closely associated with the next part of the Gaussian (decreasing black), then you may inadvertently draw incorrect Gaussians (blue arrows) leading you to believe a change confirmation occurred - where none yet exists. The only reason one even considers this bar 'black' is due to the one tic difference in price from open to close. The blue arrows show B2B. However, this cannot be correct as we currently find ourselves within the Orange Forest. Using the correct Gaussians (black arrow), we are able to more accurately assess the Red Bar at the end of the chart - entertaining the idea that the bar has formed a Flaw (A Stall actually) rather than believing we have encountered an FTT. This entire exercise shows you how easy it is to find yourself several levels down into resolution levels when your intent was to remain at the Forest Level.
Monitor the Gaussians at the correct resolution level just as you do with price.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
PRV (Pro-Rata Volume) compares Volume levels NOW in order to anticipate Volume Levels by End of Bar. If one has 2000 contracts traded in the first 15 seconds of the Bar, then one can anticipate seeing 40,000 contracts traded by End of Bar (four 15 second intervals per minute x 5 minutes per bar x 2000 contracts = 40,000 contracts). Comparing this anticipated volume with the previous bar actual volume allows you to 'see' continuation or change at finer resolution levels. In addition, comparing Peak Level Volume levels can permit one to anticipate where an FTT might form.
As discusssed earlier in this thread, Mak explains his use of PRV in this post. The linked post references the attached spread sheet.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from FilterTip:
It is said that this methodology works on all markets on all time frames given addiquate volatility. Most of my trading is on the DAX, but I am thinking that such a thinly traded instrument is causing the WTF's for me.
Quote from FilterTip:
Refering to your post with the "This Bar". Is it correct then to say that we would only assess seeing a CHANGE when price looks to or is breaking the RTL of the Orange channel. ?
__________________
I just wanted to add, for me this is all akin to when you use a telescope,
there is a period of zooming in too far and zooming out too far until you get
the picture in focus.
I find myself with moments of clarity and then I lose the plot and kind of too
and fro over the same stuff, but each time the picture is easier to focus on..
FilterTip
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Any Market, Any timeframe - provided sufficient Liquidity exists.
If one is learning to trade on a 'Forest Level' Resolution, yes.
- Spydertrader
ES vs. DAX
Quote from FilterTip:
It is said that this methodology works on all markets on all time frames given addiquate volatility. Most of my trading is on the DAX, but I am thinking that such a thinly traded instrument is causing the WTF's for me.
if you focus on WTF, you will find WTF.
if you focus on FTT, FTT will find you.
Re: ES vs. DAX
Quote from PointOne:
You misquoted, its liquidity not volatility.
Nothing in the history of the planet has ever been as deep and liquid as the ES. It is just incredible. Look up the volume numbers from its inception. Long may it continue.
However, the DAX is also sufficiently liquid and deep for us but I don't know how the very large players can operate without big slippage there. (Often showing 20 or less lots at the top of the DOM). I'm happy for anyone to enlighten me.
The DAX does appear to jump around a bit but P, V and ftt / FTT monitoring work just the same - there are few true WTF!s. The DAX is a large contract relative to the ES (as I alluded to in a recent post above) and this might be freaking you out. [If you want to see illiquid look at the Sydney contract. FTTs work on that one too no problem, but you have to set alarms to wake you up.]
Re: Dax
Quote from FilterTip:
I know it's on the DAX but would be grateful for your comments..
__________________
Awareness, Learning and Habits
Quote from FilterTip:
as I mentioned in previous post, i am trying to unlearn as well..
FilterTip
Few skiers want to spend more time than necessary learning something new. Having only a limited time on the mountain, they sometimes become impatient when awareness techniques are used in an Inner Skiing lesson to help them develop a new skill. Often they feel that they are wasting their time if they are not getting a tip or technical correction, since this is the way they have been taught in the past, and believe that it is the most direct route to immediate improvement.
The truth is that the more awareness you can bring to the practice of a new skill, the more easily, quickly, and thoroughly you will learn it. Our experience with Inner Skiing has shown that by focusing attention on each step the body discovers the best way of executing it.
Often skiers reach a plateau at a certain point in their development. We can become stuck, for instance, somewhere between stem and parallel, and seem not to be able to get over that hurdle. We try everything - lessons, tips, instructional articles in ski magazines - but nothing seems to work.
Usually the cause of plateauing is an unconscious habit - a response to a certain situation that has become so ingrained that we no longer notice it. These habits can start when we are first learning to ski, but since they don't interfere with our initial progress, we remain unaware of them. Our bodies compensate for them, so that after a while they partially work...it becomes to feel normal.
The key to breaking a habit is the same as for all natural learning: increase your awareness.
Re: Re: Dax
SpyderTrader.
Thx for the detailed reply.
A few points though that I disagree with here... ( the sempai takes a deep
breath)..
I have added attached chart labeled No:3 DAX chart
Check your chart, and see if your Point Three is correct. It isn't. It should be on the next bar. How does that change the landscape?
2. You failed to place the light blue channel into you own chart.
It's a Point Three Down Channel. Your chart has a 'tape' channel - ignoring the previous high bar. Had you drawn in this down channel, note how price in your 'problem bar' creates an FTT (circled red).
3. Your 'problem bar' in hindsight doesn't tell you the entire tale of the day. In real time, things looked quite different, so we have to describe this bar as if it were in real time - now.
As Price approaches your right trend line, we see decreasing red volume (as expected) while price 'retraces' the 'Forest.' We don't see increasing red volume here when Price breaks the light green trend line (a clue you don't have the Forest drawn correctly [see above] telling you your 'channels' are off.)
We then see a flaw (stall) arrive on the scene. No worries as price remains within our Point Three Down Channel (See why you have to draw the channels correctly?)
The next bar (The 'Problem Bar'), we do see (on a PRV basis) increasing volume, and in the beginning, it is red. Again, we expect this as price breaks our channel (our correctly drawn in up channel - not on my chart). As Price approaches the left trend line of the down channel, it stops and starts to head higher. An FTT (Point One)! A signal for change.
Here within our problem Gaussian, as Price traverses the down channel, we start to see a change take place Intra-Bar. First, we have decreasing black volume (close your eyes and visualize the change -
or check a 1 minute chart to verify), then increasing black volume appears as Price breaks the RTL of the down channel.
Next, we have a flaw show up again (stall) followed by our 'top' (Point Two). So in real-time had you drawn in your channels correctly, you'd have seen an FTT and known the market had signaled change.
We see the same thing after Point Two (Yellow), Another Point Three Down channel (Peach) moves into an FTT creating our Point Three. As expected, we see increasing black volume as Price moves higher into the Forest.
5. You do a Good Job annotating your last down channel on this snip. Note how Price maintains its position within this smaller Forest - showing decreasing red volume right up until Price Breaches the RTL of our WIDE up channel.
Hopefully, my Intra-Bar Narration of your 'Problem bar' provided some clarity. I recommend practicing your annotations and making sure you correctly add the proper trend lines to your charts. Without the correct trend lines, you miss so much of the story.
No:3 DAX chart...
Thx Sydertrader for your patience and detiled response...
FilterTip
Re: Awareness, Learning and Habits
Quote from PointOne:
Please read the following from Inner Skiing by W. Timothy Gallwey and Robert Kriegel, I find it useful:
Few skiers want to spend more time than necessary learning something new. Having only a limited time on the mountain, they sometimes become impatient when awareness techniques are used in an Inner Skiing lesson to help them develop a new skill. Often they feel that they are wasting their time if they are not getting a tip or technical correction, since this is the way they have been taught in the past, and believe that it is the most direct route to immediate improvement.
I've only ever bought one
software package in about 20 years and that was when I first started trading,
although many good books on trading etc... To date I have only ever met one
person who has traded for a living in all this time.
The truth is that the more awareness you can bring to the practice of a new skill, the more easily, quickly, and thoroughly you will learn it. Our experience with Inner Skiing has shown that by focusing attention on each step the body discovers the best way of executing it.
Often skiers reach a plateau at a certain point in their development. We can become stuck, for instance, somewhere between stem and parallel, and seem not to be able to get over that hurdle. We try everything - lessons, tips, instructional articles in ski magazines - but nothing seems to work.
Usually the cause of plateauing is an unconscious habit - a response to a certain situation that has become so ingrained that we no longer notice it. These habits can start when we are first learning to ski, but since they don't interfere with our initial progress, we remain unaware of them. Our bodies compensate for them, so that after a while they partially work...it becomes to feel normal.
The key to breaking a habit is the same as for all natural learning: increase your awareness.
Spyder
Any particular reason why you did not annotate the 13:10 bar as an FTT and the
13:15 bar as an FBO?
Thanks
Quote from FilterTip:
...
My attached chart (No:3) shows, I hope, pink up trend from corrected Light Green point 3...?
If the Pink channel is now correct then does this negate your down blue channel..?
a non dominant tape though..
If so my "problem bar" now merely becomes a pink FBO.
Price now remains in this pink channel with several FBO until it creates the first pink FTT, which is the dark blue point 1.
..
Quote from nkhoi:
you miss 3 more channels until your first pink FTT, here is the first channel (dark blue) see if you can draw 2 more.
!! ??
Quote from ktmexc20:
How many refer to "a Gaussian" without really knowing what a Gaussian is?
Do you even know what a normal distribution is, how to determine it, and correctly utilize it's properties?
I ask this, as an example, because I want people to think harder(?) about what Jack is presenting to you all. What he presents goes much deeper than what's on the surface.
Continue to learn/THINK... and then some.
-kt
Quote from dkm:
Any particular reason why you did not annotate the 13:10 bar as an FTT and the 13:15 bar as an FBO?
__________________
About Spyder"s 030207ES Chart
Spyder: By reading your journals,
that I've learned from you/Mak and others immensely. Thanks.
In reviewing your 030207 ES chart, posted on page 287, the message on the upper
right corner:" ..a second FTT had formed within a channel, Forest level
monitoring Can reverse on the Second FTT within a channel if price has yet to
break the RTL", is not clear to me.
I would go short at #1, FTT, reverse at #2, FBO and exit at #3, FTT; then wait
for the next bar after Hitch bar,which broke down the channel, for confirmation
to go short.
In your message:
Was that FTT, on top of #3 that you talked about, can go short when the price
break the RTL???
When you/others mention about LTR, RTL,LTL,RTL,are they refer to the changes of
trend lines/channels or the Price Bars???
Any illustrations that I can find to open up my eyes?
Re: Re: Re: Dax
Quote from FilterTip:
A few points though that I disagree with here
__________________
Re: About Spyder"s 030207ES Chart
Quote from bucherwin:
I would go short at #1, FTT, reverse at #2, FBO and exit at #3, FTT; then wait for the next bar after Hitch bar,which broke down the channel, for confirmation to go short.
Quote from bucherwin:
Was that FTT, on top of #3 that you talked about, can go short when the price break the RTL???
Quote from bucherwin:
When you/others mention about LTR, RTL,LTL,RTL,are they refer to the changes of trend lines/channels or the Price Bars???
__________________
Hi Guys,
Just wanted to let your know I have read this journal, and the 100 pages of J2,
all the links and pdfs in it's entirety and have been able to catch up at least
to the present theme.
WOW !!!
Jack, Spyder, Mak and all of you involved, thank you so very much for all
of your time, effort and unconditional good intentions you have shown to so many
people whom you have never met.
I think it is an honor and feel very lucky to be able to be part of this class
as it develops live.
Hope my questions and participation help everyone in the process of assimilating
the information being put forward. I think Spydertrader has done an incredible
job of teaching us this very complex subject. A standing ovation from my
part....
I had dreamt about being able to be in the market at all times when I started
trading, but had considered it an impossibility....and now I am here looking at
what I considered impossible unfold before my very own eyes...
How lucky "we" are indeed.....
Thanks!
optionpro7,
Thanks, for doing the work.
It will be so helpful to others when you pass it forward.
Spyder is making 2007 a great year for which we are all very thankful. Having
him on point is a dream come true for so many others.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Dax
Quote from Spydertrader:
You have an incomplete understanding of what does and does not constitute an FTT and a Point Three Channel. As a result, your analysis has you arriving at incorrect conclusions. To fix this situation, you need to review bundlemaker's video. If by the end of the video, you still require additional clarity, you'll need to do one of the following ...
1. Review Pr0crast's summary documents in their entirety.
2. Review the entire thread from page one.
After each attempt (first the video, then the summary docs, finally the entire thread) at review, read again my comments to you. If you still see things as you describe, you'll need to move onto the next step of review. You've missed a number key points along the way, or you have interpreted things incorrectly as you processed them through your own mental filters. The aforementioned reviews should provide you the clarity you need.
- Spydertrader
Quote from optionpro007:
Hi Guys,
Just wanted to let your know I have read this journal, and the 100 pages of J2, all the links and pdfs in it's entirety and have been able to catch up at least to the present theme.
WOW !!!
.....
Thanks!
my goal is every ET'er should be exposed to Jack at least one. At the least
learning to think outside of CW is importance imho.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Dax
Quote from FilterTip:
I shall do as you say and start again.
Quote from FilterTip:
as I don't see how the down blue channel is created as it has not broken the pink channel, which is why I am not seeing the blue 1.2.3 channel.
Quote from FilterTip:
grateful for your assistance and apologies for taking up your time with what are becoming elementary errors, even though channels for the rest of that day were drawn correctly in real time.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Dax
Quote from FilterTip:
As a final request on this I would be grateful if you could let me know if the pink up channel ( which replaced the "incorrect" light green channel) is correct or not. It would help me understand the errors I have made, as I don't see how the down blue channel is created as it has not broken the pink channel, which is why I am not seeing the blue 1.2.3 channel.
Quote from optionpro007:
Hi Guys,
Just wanted to let your know I have read this journal, and the 100 pages of J2, all the links and pdfs in it's entirety and have been able to catch up at least to the present theme.
WOW !!!
Jack, Spyder, Mak and all of you involved, thank you so very much for all of your time, effort and unconditional good intentions you have shown to so many people whom you have never met.
I think it is an honor and feel very lucky to be able to be part of this class as it develops live.
Hope my questions and participation help everyone in the process of assimilating the information being put forward. I think Spydertrader has done an incredible job of teaching us this very complex subject. A standing ovation from my part....
I had dreamt about being able to be in the market at all times when I started trading, but had considered it an impossibility....and now I am here looking at what I considered impossible unfold before my very own eyes...
How lucky "we" are indeed.....
Thanks!
Quote from nkhoi:
well come to daily AHA thread, let see, you had been on site since 05 and have just read J2 now, so it is either we didn't make enough noise or detractors didn't make enough noise or both
Quote from ivob:
It is not my dream to be always in the market but some modest successes would be nice to start with :-)
Ivo
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Dax
Quote from Spydertrader:
Start with the video. It may be all you need.
Price formed the Blue Down Channel before breaking your Pink Channel. Price isn't required to Break an uptrend before forming a downtrend. Channels overlap. See my post to bucherwin.
No need for an apology. As nkhoi pointed out to you, Missing certain channels prevents you from 'seeing' the big picture. Bundlemaker's video should provide you a method for catching all the channels. Also, review the FTT Posts:
Post One
Post Two
Post Three
before reviewing the video, to understand the definition of an FTT.
Look a little closer at the RTL on your pink channel. It looks like you drew your Point Three Trend Line about a tic off the actual Point Three. How far does that one tic make your trend line off when price breaks through it later on in the day?
- Spydertrader
OP007: thanks for the inspiration. my goal too is to finish the journals.
I have been reading feverishly. Back in September, I thought I could do them by
December, but I found the material deserve several re-read before moving on to
the next stage. Jack said make print outs and punch holes on the right side, so
that you can write notes on the next page. That's a great idea.
My only wish is I had started this 2 years sooner. But I am grateful I still
have a chance to start now. I treasure every post, and read each instruction
over and over again, lest I missed something. The moment is now, I have to learn
as much as I can while I can.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Dax
Quote from FilterTip:
Perhaps I get confused as to what type of market action dictates a tape or a channel.
__________________
Quote from Tums:
OP007: thanks for the inspiration. my goal too is to finish the journals.
I have been reading feverishly. Back in September, I thought I could do them by December, but I found the material deserve several re-read before moving on to the next stage. Jack said make print outs and punch holes on the right side, so that you can write notes on the next page. That's a great idea.
My only wish is I had started this 2 years sooner. But I am grateful I still have a chance to start now. I treasure every post, and read each instruction over and over again, lest I missed something. The moment is now, I have to learn as much as I can while I can.
Quote from ivob:
On this milestone page 300 :-) I want to say I agree completely with this. I feel privileged to be able to follow this invaluable journey.
I'm starting to see more and more things every day based on real data that I process into information and not based on fear, greed, hope and desire and such. Things are falling in place. I feel it is our duty to give this our utmost attention and to try our best we possibly can. It's a lesson for life and anyone who takes the time and puts the effort can follow it and learn it. Amazing.
It is not my dream to be always in the market but some modest successes would be nice to start with :-) and then grow. The ultimate dream would be to be able to pass this information forward as Jack and Spydertrader are doing, in my own way and in my own country, making me grow even more. And after all that means I would know a hell of a lot about how markets operate, wouldn't it?
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Dax
Quote from bi9foot:
Yes the pink channel you have drawn is valid. The RTL is not exactly on the pt 3 as you have drawn it though.
Quote from Tums:
OP007: thanks for the inspiration. my goal too is to finish the journals.
I have been reading feverishly. Back in September, I thought I could do them by December, but I found the material deserve several re-read before moving on to the next stage. Jack said make print outs and punch holes on the right side, so that you can write notes on the next page. That's a great idea.
My only wish is I had started this 2 years sooner. But I am grateful I still have a chance to start now. I treasure every post, and read each instruction over and over again, lest I missed something. The moment is now, I have to learn as much as I can while I can.
Price movement in a bar
This is real basic but I thought it might be helpful to those struggling with
gaussians and PRV among other things. The attached chart shows how price would
typically be acting inside the 5 minute bar. This is more of a mindset issue
than a bar chart study.
The price is always moving, it doesn't start at the open of the bar and end on
the bar's close. We're looking for PRV to be increasing or decreasing during the
bar. Accelerating or decelerating.
When the bar has a long tail like bar 2 (or spike, hammer, etc), price almost
completely retraces the bar - Which half had the increasing/decreasing PRV?
You really don't need a finer resolution to see this if you're following the
PRV.
Since price doesn't stop, we're always either in continuation or change mode.
Back and forth, ebb and flow. One side or the other. We're not looking to enter
and exit, we're looking for continuation or change. Same with the volume
gaussians, rise and fall, ebb and flow . . .
Hope this is helpful - EZ
In the spirit of FTTing and Gaussianing, I had a crack at this futures stuff
on the SPI (Aussie 200) while working from home today.
Below is my annotated chart. All the lines and FTTs were drawn in real time.
I've also highlighted where I think I missed them and also called a dodgy FBO.
The redvol / greenvol numbers in the chart above are simply the sum of volume
over the last 10 bars, where C > O or C < O. I coded it as a 'shorthand' to let
me easily see what the dominant volume has been over the last 10 bars.
Trade history from IB Papertrading account is below. The highlighted trades is
where I stuffed up and bought when I should have sold. I coded a 'single shot'
buy/sell in Amibroker and pressed the wrong button. From that point on, I left
the lot size at 2, since I am more interested in getting in and out at the right
point at this stage.
If this is standard performance, I'll have to work at home more often! I'll have
to do this more often, to see it was a complete fluke or not.
I ran across this tidbit in 'The Disciplined Trader' by Mark Douglas, and for
a moment there I thought I was reading a Spyder/JH book
There is another characteristic of our nature that supports our need to learn.
Whenever we learn a skill, the steps involved in the operation of that skill
drop down to an unconscious level of operation, so we are then free to learn
something new. To learn a skill, we usually have to break the skill down into a
series of small steps and concentrate on each individual step until we can put
all the steps together into a series of effective movements. By concentrating on
each small step, we narrow our focus of attention to the point where we are
oblivious to anything else going on in the environment.
For example, think of a time in your life when you were trying to learn a new
skill, say, in some sport, and while you were trying to put all the movements
together, someone was attempting to get your attention on some completely
unrelated matter. In such a situation we would find it extremely difficult, if
not impossible, to stay focused on one without destroying our concentration on
the other. However, after we have successfully made the skill a learned
resource, we could easily perform the movements while focusing our attention
elsewhere.
Without this characteristic of our nature, where our skills drop to an
unconscious level of operation, we would find it nearly impossible to move
beyond the performance level of a typical infant. Just think what it would be
like if we had to concentrate on all the movements necessary just to pick
something up the way a typical infant does. We didn't always have the eye/hand
coordination that we take completely for granted. We had to learn it. We learned
it because we were attracted to things in the environment we wanted to
experience with our sense of touch. As we learn each skill, we can
automatically access the series of movements to execute the skill so we don't
have to concentrate on any of the individual steps, which then frees our
attention to explore and continually expand what we can become aware of.
May this be the week that course monitoring becomes unconcious
Quote from mischief:
In the spirit of FTTing and Gaussianing, I had a crack at this futures stuff on the SPI (Aussie 200) while working from home today.
Below is my annotated chart. All the lines and FTTs were drawn in real time. I've also highlighted where I think I missed them and also called a dodgy FBO.
If this is standard performance, I'll have to work at home more often! I'll have to do this more often, to see it was a complete fluke or not.
Quote from mischief:
Below is my annotated chart. All the lines and FTTs were drawn in real time. I've also highlighted where I think I missed them and also called a dodgy FBO.
__________________
Anyone trading now, market is trading as wild as it would during normal
trading hours lol... Trading where I can since I did not log on until midnight
and most of the moves already happened.
Channels still looking good as some volatility expansions popped up and worked
as support for move to get out of a short I had on. I hope Monday is as exciting
as it seems overnight is shaping up to be.
The follow up chart... Note to self. A volatility expansion is not an
FBO.....
I now see my mistake. The actions from an FTT relate to the SAME channels in
which it occurred. My fake FBO was in a different channel set completely. What I
had was a Breakout on my yellow lines and should have held until I had an FTT in
the red channel, which was expanding due to volatility. On the upside, I was
catching most of the FTT's today and didn't go too nuts with the lines.
I'll try this a few more times this week on the DAX, SPI, etc. If I get some
consistent results, I might put 1 contract into the water. I agree with
Optioncoach, it's all fine with lines or a paper account, but holding on to a
real trade is a completely different story.
I've taken to deleting the P & L columns of IB to try and minimise the emotions.
Mischief:
1. 1 contract is small enough to not break you but real enough to force you to
concentrate. I am more focused with real money, even only $50 a point.
2. On yor other question, perhaps if you had multiple contracts, you could have
taken half off at the lower trendline after getting in on that FTT since that
trend line is a target. If it breaks through, you still riding half the position
lower, if it reverses, at worst you can get out on the move back higher and
still take more profits. If you want to wait it out you can set the stop for the
remaining half at your entry to give it more room.
Thoughts?
Nikkei - feel free to ignore
Today's Nikkei. Beautiful. I need to get more red tones for my trendlines.
Just for fun I practiced a "You're going to do WHAT?!" long trade and washed 10
mins later - I was never upside-down (best was +40) and did use a stop to exit
which was prudent given the day's context (orange channel). The increasing red
PR volume was a very clear clue that I was "wrong" at +20 points.
It is important to learn and believe for yourself that your mistakes will make
you money if you do what the market tells you to do in a timely fashion. This is
the hardest thing for many people to accept and do.
My annotations on the volume were eaten up by Quotetracker - I overloaded the
permitted no. of objects I guess.
Re: Nikkei - feel free to ignore
Quote from PointOne:
Today's Nikkei. Beautiful. I need to get more red tones for my trendlines.
Just for fun I practiced a "You're going to do WHAT?!" long trade and washed 10 mins later - I was never upside-down (best was +40) and did use a stop to exit which was prudent given the day's context (orange channel). The increasing red PR volume was a very clear clue that I was "wrong" at +20 points.
It is important to learn and believe for yourself that your mistakes will make you money if you do what the market tells you to do in a timely fashion. This is the hardest thing for many people to accept and do.
My annotations on the volume were eaten up by Quotetracker - I overloaded the permitted no. of objects I guess.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Not a bad idea.
I remember Van Tharp saying that scaling out cuts down on long term
profitability, but this method is completely discretionary. If I had 3 contracts
(for example), I'd bank 1 just to show a profit and let the others ride.
I'll be on 1 contract for a little while yet though. I've traded mechanically
for quite a while, but this is my first effort at discretionary trading.
I have heard so many opinions on scaling out. However here where you have a
target in sight, you can take a piece off and let the others run. For those
times where it bounces back you reduce what you give back and still bank
profits.
With 1 contract I think you have nothing to feel bad about taking that profit
cause it matched the rules. Once the breakout was confirmed you possibly could
have gone short again with a tight stop if it moved back into the channel.
Entering the short again was still profitable based on the chart.
Quote from mischief:
Not a bad idea.
I remember Van Tharp saying that scaling out cuts down on long term profitability, but this method is completely discretionary. If I had 3 contracts (for example), I'd bank 1 just to show a profit and let the others ride.
I'll be on 1 contract for a little while yet though. I've traded mechanically for quite a while, but this is my first effort at discretionary trading.
You're correct. I should have taken the short on the red channel breakout,
held and then followed the 'rules' from that point on.
Now, if I can bump those meetings off for tomorrow....
Quote from optioncoach:
I have heard so many opinions on scaling out. However here where you have a target in sight, you can take a piece off and let the others run. For those times where it bounces back you reduce what you give back and still bank profits.
With 1 contract I think you have nothing to feel bad about taking that profit cause it matched the rules. Once the breakout was confirmed you possibly could have gone short again with a tight stop if it moved back into the channel. Entering the short again was still profitable based on the chart.
scaling out is just too much trouble for me. I am either in, or out. I don't
want to worry about half positions.
with SCT, we will be reversing instead of exiting. Therefore there is little
reason, or time, to scale out.
i dont mention scaling out as a given but I feel it fits in with my style
when I get in and the market runs to a trendline. Sometime it works for me to
take profits and leave the remaining to see if it breaks or bounces off. I would
not do this on every trade but sometimes it is good medicine for me.
Took 3 trades, 2 winners, 1 loser.
Good news is that in hindsight loser should have been avoided once I corrected a
mistake in channels. A learning loser is very rewarding compared to a "why did I
lose" loser.
off to bed...
P.S. channels work well on Euro from what I have seen. Keeps you out of chop and
makes you wait for nice moves.
Quote from Bearbelly:
We must walk before we can run. Spyder has laid it out for us. Point 3 to RTL cross. This is the basic trade to build upon. Friday was a bit hard because you would have had to endure some 4-5 point moves against your position before the cross but it did work out. I personally chickened out a bit early but those days are not the norm. I am not going to attempt anything else until I have these down cold.
If you don't think of it as a paper trade, you will mentally treat it with
the same seriousness as a real trade. When you transition to real money, you
will have no mental transition at all.
As a matter of fact, don't even think about it as a trade (i.e. don't think
PnL). think of it as a video game where you have to catch all the FTT.
FTT of the Day
Following a HVS open, there was a nice FTT at 10am on DAX (note carryover TL
also):
Quote from Tums:
If you don't think of it as a paper trade, you will mentally treat it with the same seriousness as a real trade. When you transition to real money, you will have no mental transition at all.
As a matter of fact, don't even think about it as a trade (i.e. don't think PnL). think of it as a video game where you have to catch all the FTT.
Paper trading is the best way to initially test and get familiar with a
trading approach. But at some point you have to put 1 contract on the line
because no matter how hard you try and forget it is paper trading, nothing
replicates the emotions of having real money on the line
.
Quote from Tums:
If you don't think of it as a paper trade, you will mentally treat it with the same seriousness as a real trade. When you transition to real money, you will have no mental transition at all.
As a matter of fact, don't even think about it as a trade (i.e. don't think PnL). think of it as a video game where you have to catch all the FTT.
Intresting moves this morning. In the chart below I missed the FTT in the
Purple Channel where the double red arrow is. It was a FTT of the purple channel
and was hitting resistance of the large major channel (thick green line). I will
try and not miss that again lol.
A little further on I entered long at the blue arrow on what I saw as a FTT of
the white channel and got out at the red arrow where it hit the left upper
channel line and the Pivot Point.
The lines are drawn in real time and hopefully correct lol.
Quote from optioncoach:
Paper trading is the best way to initially test and get familiar with a trading approach. But at some point you have to put 1 contract on the line because no matter how hard you try and forget it is paper trading, nothing replicates the emotions of having real money on the line
Quote from Ezzy:
Quote from ktmexc20:
How many refer to "a Gaussian" without really knowing what a Gaussian is?
Do you even know what a normal distribution is, how to determine it, and correctly utilize it's properties?
I ask this, as an example, because I want people to think harder(?) about what Jack is presenting to you all. What he presents goes much deeper than what's on the surface.
Continue to learn/THINK... and then some.
-kt
Care to expound on this? Obviously you have something in mind. Many time we don't get "normal" a distribution as we have overlapping cycles so I'd like to get your view on this.
Regards,
EZ
.
Nobody here would be reckless.....Spyder would kill 'em...
Quote from Tums:
Agreed.
Like you said before, $50 a point is not going to bankrupt anybody, unless you are so reckless that you don't know when to "stop".
For Anyone Really Struggling
I’m pretty sure I have received a “religious experience”, although mine has
been strung out over a few days.
This morning’s chart work made something very clear. Some days ago, Aurum
suggested that I was predicting. I swore I wasn’t. Yet, a deeper part of me knew
I was. This morning an epiphany occurred: I recognized PREDICTING behavior WHILE
I WAS PREDICTING.
I believe once you feel what that’s like in your body, you will recognize it
forever. Now, how do you go about recognizing it? There are probably as many
ways as there are humans, but this was my process...
First, I needed to do EXACTLY as Spyder instructed, NO modifications whatsoever.
This itself needs some time and patience to implement, as one’s ego certainly
will try to combat this.
Second, just try to notice when fear, doubt, frustration, or the like; comes
into your reality. Those emotions are clear, unambiguous signals that you ARE
predicting. Period. No matter what you think is going on. Think about it, and
you’ll realize this HAS to be true by definition.
To stop predicting is almost impossible, UNLESS you first notice you’re doing
it. Then it’s easy. Very few people have been raised to notice their emotions,
really notice them, in real time and acknowledge they are there. If this sounds
too eastern for you, I’m sorry. I’ve crossed the bridge, been where it hurts,
and I know the path to comfort. It’s in the noticing.
Once you notice, you do just one thing: get off the single data element you were
stuck on! I promise you, if you were feeling those emotions I mentioned, you
were stuck on a single data element. Jack talks about repeating these four
steps: Monitor – Analyze – Decide – Act. I’ve heard him say it until I got
nauseaus. Now I get why you do this. It keeps you out of prediction.
So, the sequence I’m suggesting is: notice negative emotions…. Get off single
data element to full data set…. Analyze by asking yourself what should be next
based on the “now” data set…. Is that happening?..... rinse and repeat.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Todays Gaussians little confusing .... but channels and point 3 Do their
thing so far......
Who caught the FTT at the end of the 11:25 AM bar (5-min charts)? It
confirmed a FTT for me because it was also a bearish engulfing and moved back
below the R2 pivot. Just want to make sure I see what I see and not what I want
(sound like JH and Spyuder now).
I went short at 1390.75 but got skerred and covered at 1390.00 at the lower
trendline after two doji candles.
ES broke out on the next candle and I went short for another point and got out
near the 20 EMA but too soon.
Entries are coming along pretty good. Still have my old issues with when to take
profits yada yada yada.... I keep cutting at a point or so when it appears to
fizzle and missing out. For example ES is 2 points lower from my last short
cover and in hindsight it made perfect sense to stay in the short but of course
I always pick the right exit in hindsight ;)
Re: For Anyone Really Struggling
Quote from bundlemaker:
This morning an epiphany occurred: I recognized PREDICTING behavior WHILE I WAS PREDICTING.
Re: For Anyone Really Struggling
Quote from bundlemaker:
I’m pretty sure I have received a “religious experience”, although mine has been strung out over a few days.
This morning’s chart work made something very clear. Some days ago, Aurum suggested that I was predicting. I swore I wasn’t. Yet, a deeper part of me knew I was. This morning an epiphany occurred: I recognized PREDICTING behavior WHILE I WAS PREDICTING.
I believe once you feel what that’s like in your body, you will recognize it forever. Now, how do you go about recognizing it? There are probably as many ways as there are humans, but this was my process...
First, I needed to do EXACTLY as Spyder instructed, NO modifications whatsoever. This itself needs some time and patience to implement, as one’s ego certainly will try to combat this.
Second, just try to notice when fear, doubt, frustration, or the like; comes into your reality. Those emotions are clear, unambiguous signals that you ARE predicting. Period. No matter what you think is going on. Think about it, and you’ll realize this HAS to be true by definition.
To stop predicting is almost impossible, UNLESS you first notice you’re doing it. Then it’s easy. Very few people have been raised to notice their emotions, really notice them, in real time and acknowledge they are there. If this sounds too eastern for you, I’m sorry. I’ve crossed the bridge, been where it hurts, and I know the path to comfort. It’s in the noticing.
Once you notice, you do just one thing: get off the single data element you were stuck on! I promise you, if you were feeling those emotions I mentioned, you were stuck on a single data element. Jack talks about repeating these four steps: Monitor – Analyze – Decide – Act. I’ve heard him say it until I got nauseaus. Now I get why you do this. It keeps you out of prediction.
So, the sequence I’m suggesting is: notice negative emotions…. Get off single data element to full data set…. Analyze by asking yourself what should be next based on the “now” data set…. Is that happening?..... rinse and repeat.
Here my ES for the morning. Best thing for me was to see the breakout at
10:30 and volume was getting lower and lower on ES as well as YM so I did not
look for pt 3. Also there was no preceeding FTT..
regards,
Ivo
YM for the morning. Was leading ES most of the time. Just the last move (pt 3
at 11:48) ES seemed a little quicker. Clearly no CCC and all that in these
volatile times. I guess one could trade whole day long these days. comments are
very welcome.
regards,
Ivo
Carry Over Channel
Quote from Mr_Black:
Todays Gaussians little confusing .... but channels and point 3 Do their thing so far......
__________________
My ES for the morning. So far I've found today to be very easy to annotate, especially since the ES virtually mirrored the YM all morning.
Re: Carry Over Channel
Quote from Spydertrader:
Add your 'Forest Level' Carry Over Channel from the previous day (Friday), and clarity appears where confusion once ruled.
Edit: Note how Price respected the Red Right Trend Line to create an FBO on the Red Channel. This trend line resulted froma Point Three at 15:40 PM Friday
- Spydertrader
OC
Can you do yourself and the rest of us a great service and either follow the
method the right way and stop using a lot of your "own" criteria or continue to
do what you are doing and not contribute to this thread? Not trying to be a jerk
but you're all over the place here and it can be very confusing to everyone
else. Thanks!
-Harry
btw I sold 20 lot at 11:20:10 at 1393.00 based on the method and covered at
12:19:49 as FTT forms (@ 1382.75). You need to get away from all the other crap
you are using if you want to get this stuff down cold.
Quote from optioncoach:
Who caught the FTT at the end of the 11:25 AM bar (5-min charts)? It confirmed a FTT for me because it was also a bearish engulfing and moved back below the R2 pivot. Just want to make sure I see what I see and not what I want (sound like JH and Spyuder now).
I went short at 1390.75 but got skerred and covered at 1390.00 at the lower trendline after two doji candles.
ES broke out on the next candle and I went short for another point and got out near the 20 EMA but too soon.
Entries are coming along pretty good. Still have my old issues with when to take profits yada yada yada.... I keep cutting at a point or so when it appears to fizzle and missing out. For example ES is 2 points lower from my last short cover and in hindsight it made perfect sense to stay in the short but of course I always pick the right exit in hindsight ;)
Spyder
Could you please explain why you have labelled the 10:10 bar as a green FTT?
Thanks
Quote from dkm:
Spyder
Could you please explain why you have labelled the 10:10 bar as a green FTT? Thanks
Quote from optioncoach:
...I went short at 1390.75 but got skerred and covered at 1390.00 at the lower trendline after two doji candles.
...
FTT at 10:10?
Quote from dkm:
Could you please explain why you have labelled the 10:10 bar as a green FTT? Thanks
__________________
Re: For Anyone Really Struggling
Quote from bundlemaker:
...
Second, just try to notice when fear, doubt, frustration, or the like; comes into your reality. Those emotions are clear, unambiguous signals that you ARE predicting. Period. No matter what you think is going on. Think about it, and you’ll realize this HAS to be true by definition.
...
FTT at 1384.50?
Sorry to get under your skin there Balls, but the entries I am using come
from the same channels that are being drawn here which I learned from reading
current and old threads. I have some other criteria for the trades from past
experience but I am not shoving them down your throat nor am I plastering them
all over the screen.
If it is distracting then you could ignore my posts or if you feel I am ruining
your class, by all means I will not upset the karma.
The candlestick formations and pivot points I use work well for me in
conjunction with this approach but I know it is not "taught" here and I have not
asked that i be included. I only mentioned them on one post to be honest.
As for the 20 lot, congrats, but I already admitted I am working on my exits....
bowing out...
Quote from Harold Balls:
OC
Can you do yourself and the rest of us a great service and either follow the method the right way and stop using a lot of your "own" criteria or continue to do what you are doing and not contribute to this thread? Not trying to be a jerk but you're all over the place here and it can be very confusing to everyone else. Thanks!
-Harry
btw I sold 20 lot at 11:20:10 at 1393.00 based on the method and covered at 12:19:49 as FTT forms (@ 1382.75). You need to get away from all the other crap you are using if you want to get this stuff down cold.
I meant no malice towards you OC but I have to be honest when i see this kind
of stuff. Forget what you already know about trading and focus in on whats being
taught. The other stuff you are using will only get in the way at this point. If
you want to make real progress, thats my suggestion. Happy trading
Quote from optioncoach:
Sorry to get under your skin there Balls, but the entries I am using come from the same channels that are being drawn here which I learned from reading current and old threads. I have some other criteria for the trades from past experience but I am not shoving them down your throat nor am I plastering them all over the screen.
If it is distracting then you could ignore my posts or if you feel I am ruining your class, by all means I will not upset the karma.
The candlestick formations and pivot points I use work well for me in conjunction with this approach but I know it is not "taught" here and I have not asked that i be included. I only mentioned them on one post to be honest.
As for the 20 lot, congrats, but I already admitted I am working on my exits....
bowing out...
I hope I didn't come out sounding like the Candle police, because this is the
third time I am telling people to drop the candles.
In all seriousness, there are enough material to absorb as it is. Without some
kind of focus, it is easy to get side tracked.
Quote from optioncoach:
..The candlestick formations and pivot points I use work well for me in conjunction with this approach but I know it is not "taught" here and I have not asked that i be included. I only mentioned them on one post to be honest.
...
Re: Re: For Anyone Really Struggling
Quote from jack hershey:
Frame this.
The emotions of data sets and the routine using NOW are: support, comfort and confidence.
Bob (bundlemaker) is on the mark. The CW emotion set appears from incomplete sets and sub looping with single data elements.
When you depart from observing the taking of the data set, you now longer have the support of your belief; you lose the comfort of knowing how to know; and you no longer make each pass of the routine a building on success which is where your confidence comes from.
Frame this post of Bob's.
__________________
Rod
"My destiny will NOT be denied. His will be done." - Patton
Well I am not a newbie here at trading futures and I have taken what is being
taught and using it specifically and solely for the first time over 4 days I
have made money each day. So I already am a "believer" and I have put in hours
reading old threads. The principles are sound and that is why it works. There is
no need to close your eyes, turn your back on all your experience and follow
anything blindly. I feel confident that my other "reads" enhance my entries. I
still am working on my exits and that will come with time.
But never accept anything blindly. JH and Spy have done a great job explaining
in excruciatingly generous detail but I also have to be honest. Many of you will
never see exactly what JH and Spyder see. One of the Market Wizards was quoting
as saying that he can teach 1000 people his exact method and style and maybe 100
will trade exactly like him because of their own individual views, wekanesses or
habits as well as past experiences. The rest will trade some adapted version of
it and many can still make money.
Sso work as hard as you can to get the methodology down but it do not assume
that someone cannot incorporate something from your own successful experience or
vision into the method as long as you are not overriding the underlying
methodology or trying to change the settings, signals or reasoning.
So I appreciate the advice and if my experience is distracting I apologize.
Quote from Harold Balls:
I meant no malice towards you OC but I have to be honest when i see this kind of stuff. Forget what you already know about trading and focus in on whats being taught. The other stuff you are using will only get in the way at this point. If you want to make real progress, thats my suggestion. Happy trading
If you dont want Optioncoach to distract you simply put him on ignore and go on about your business. Personally I like to see what other people are doing with the stuff.
Not me, I am already zoned in and carving the mkt daily, I just meant it for
others who are not as far along as I.
Quote from Bearbelly:
If you dont want Optioncoach to distract you simply put him on ignore and go on about your business. Personally I like to see what other people are doing with the stuff.
Quote from optioncoach:
Well I am not a newbie here at trading futures and I have taken what is being taught and using it specifically and solely for the first time over 4 days I have made money each day. So I already am a "believer" and I have put in hours reading old threads. The principles are sound and that is why it works. There is no need to close your eyes, turn your back on all your experience and follow anything blindly. I feel confident that my other "reads" enhance my entries. I still am working on my exits and that will come with time.
But never accept anything blindly. JH and Spy have done a great job explaining in excruciatingly generous detail but I also have to be honest. Many of you will never see exactly what JH and Spyder see. One of the Market Wizards was quoting as saying that he can teach 1000 people his exact method and style and maybe 100 will trade exactly like him because of their own individual views, wekanesses or habits as well as past experiences. The rest will trade some adapted version of it and many can still make money.
Sso work as hard as you can to get the methodology down but it do not assume that someone cannot incorporate something from your own successful experience or vision into the method as long as you are not overriding the underlying methodology or trying to change the settings, signals or reasoning.
So I appreciate the advice and if my experience is distracting I apologize.
I understand where you are coming from. I have been looking at candlesticks
for years, they are second nature to me and they do not override the channels
that are drawn. For me they act as a security blanket to reinforce my labelling
of FTTs or breakouts. I am trading the channels, not the candles, but the
candles burn in the background and give me an extra sense of confidence. I have
yet to see a candle contradict a FTT which makes me happy.
It is clear to me but I do not advocate it.
Sorry for these discussions which might take away from everything.
Quote from Tums:
I hope I didn't come out sounding like the Candle police, because this is the third time I am telling people to drop the candles.
In all seriousness, there are enough material to absorb as it is. Without some kind of focus, it is easy to get side tracked.
ok ok, but my entries are directly in line with the method taught here. I am
not the one focusing on the other stuff in my posts.
No need to respond as I dont want to take away.
Quote from optionpro007:
Harold has a point OC.
And it is nothing personal or with your style of trading.
Is just that in this case I doubt anybody here really cares about how you trade, so in a way it is distracting to everybody.
Again, nothing personal. Just not part of the program we are following.
And as Spyder so eloquently says, you are free to choose your way from here...
Quote from optioncoach:
ok ok, but my entries are directly in line with the method taught here. I am not the one focusing on the other stuff in my posts.
I originally posted this in the equities journal, but since it has to do with
Gaussians I'll post here too.
This is GROW. Gaussians might be a bit tricky. If you don't understand what I
have drawn, speak up and we'll discuss.
I definitely feel like I fell for a "flaw" today, but since we dont see them
on the forest level, its ok with me. If Spyder or someone doesnt mind, I would
like to know if indeed what I saw was a flaw and that, in the future, I will be
able to see it as such and not worry. The time I am referring to happened from
15:34-36 on the YM. I have talen a few paper trades in my sim acct recently and
today I was short at 1384.25 around 15:28. Everything was going along nicely
until this YM "flaw" when bar 15:34 closed. Vol higher, bar looks to be
reversing. I exited my trade at 1383.00 due to this. needless to say, we went a
lot lower shortly afterwards
Spyder, was this a flaw? Thanks
Steve
My first 8 1/2 hr day in front of a chart....
My ES for today. Today's exercise netted 18.75 points in RT. Wow, what a day! Note, I do not annotate the gaussians on my volume chart, because my charting program scales it kind of goofy. I annotate this by hand on the printouts. (I'm going to have to fix this).
Sat around most of the day but ended the day with a nice one. Dont know what you call the second point 3 on the RTL. One earlier trade off an Ftt but was a bit jumpy. I did not wait for a RTL cross to exit because it was so late but exited on the LTL when it bounced a bit.
second chance, I think.
Quote from WGTrader:
My ES for today. Today's exercise netted 18.75 points in RT. Wow, what a day! Note, I do not annotate the gaussians on my volume chart, because my charting program scales it kind of goofy. I annotate this by hand on the printouts. (I'm going to have to fix this).
Quote from WGTrader:
My ES for today. Today's exercise netted 18.75 points in RT. Wow, what a day! Note, I do not annotate the gaussians on my volume chart, because my charting program scales it kind of goofy. I annotate this by hand on the printouts. (I'm going to have to fix this).
OP,
Here is my log sheet for today (I use a simple Excel worksheet). Mind you my
notes are kind of cryptic and it's unedited. I use the YM and MAK's great PRV
tool. I record what I'm doing in RT. Keep in mind that this is a paper exercise,
but I treat it seriously.
Quote from Pr0crast:
[B]I originally posted this in the equities journal, but since it has to do with Gaussians I'll post here too.
This is GROW. Gaussians might be a bit tricky. If you don't understand what I have drawn, speak up and we'll discuss.
Quote from WGTrader:
OP,
Here is my log sheet for today (I use a simple Excel worksheet). Mind you my notes are kind of cryptic and it's unedited. I use the YM and MAK's great PRV tool. I record what I'm doing in RT. Keep in mind that this is a paper exercise, but I treat it seriously.
Here were the "correct" forest trades as I see them in hindsight (green =
buy, red = sell). If anyone sees it differently, I'd like to hear how. In RT, I
was there for half of the day and netted 12-15 pts if I recall
Not too shabby.
Nice chart Pr0crast. Looks just like mine (means I must have done mine right!)
Quote from Tums:
PC:
can you make a play-by-play narration?
Quote from Pr0crast:
I originally posted this in the equities journal, but since it has to do with Gaussians I'll post here too.
This is GROW. Gaussians might be a bit tricky. If you don't understand what I have drawn, speak up and we'll discuss.
Quote from WGTrader:
OP,
Here is my log sheet for today (I use a simple Excel worksheet). Mind you my notes are kind of cryptic and it's unedited. I use the YM and MAK's great PRV tool. I record what I'm doing in RT. Keep in mind that this is a paper exercise, but I treat it seriously.
__________________
Rod
"My destiny will NOT be denied. His will be done." - Patton
Quote from virgintrader:
FTT at 1384.50?
wow..................!
Quote from nzbryant:
Amazing work
Quote from WGTrader:
NZ,
I should mention that while I believe I'm getting more comfortable with my channel annotating skills, I'm still very much in the learning stage. My quickness to see a profit and take it may or may not really be the right way to do it (even though it's an exercise). I'm not sure if I should be posting my cryptic log sheets for the class, but I will say that it has helped me a lot to make notes of what I think I'm seeing in RT. I would recommend everyone keep a log sheet if they're not already doing so, not necessarily to share, but for your own record of your day. It helps me a lot.
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from optionpro007:
My first 8 1/2 hr day in front of a chart....
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from Pr0crast:
IMO the best combo is to take a log sheet like that (however detailed or not detailed you care to) and also record the day with camtasia. Then you can compare your notes with real-time action to better analyze the right/wrong processes in your thinking.
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES
- Spydertrader
Quote from Pr0crast:
IMO the best combo is to take a log sheet like that (however detailed or not detailed you care to) and also record the day with camtasia. Then you can compare your notes with real-time action to better analyze the right/wrong processes in your thinking.
Quote from makosgu:
Overtime, your chart will start cleaning up (ie. minimizing lines drawn). What may not be clear for you yet is "what's next". Remember, the key for channels is identifying the cycles (ie. pts 1, 2, 3). Note to self, I have a pt1, next up is my pt 2... Note to self I have pt3!!! NOW HOLD AS PROFITS ARE ACCUMULATING! Next stop and FTT! IF I MISS THE FTT, IT"S OK BECAUSE I WILL THEN USE A RTL BO... Check, Check, Check...
Hopefully, we can bang out a couple of really really tight days. It should be evident to everyone now that when you get monster days, it is too easy to bang out bucks just using channels alone... We are still seeing alot of very heavy volume on the 5M so for those areas it is like taking candy from a baby.
As a side note, I've been working out how to do stats using options and what volume means for V, and IV...
Quote from palinuro:
Pr0crast,
I remember you posting instructions on how to do that, but now I can't find the page. Could you provide a link?
Thanks,
palinuro
is there such a thing as Jack Hershey - Spytrader software ?
maybe one of the TA magazines can review it ?
or maybe it can be sold as an "plug-in" to some real time data
vendor ... as trying to view that chart stumped me
all in all though ... it looks nice ... good luck guys
ps ... mr hershey ... you look good in a tux !
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Spyder, was this a flaw? Thanks
__________________
Spyder,
how do you know at the time that bars like 11:05 and 12:55 are not FTTs, while
bars 11:15 and 13:05 are?
And if one has made that mistake, how does one recognize the mistake and correct
it before price comes back to or even beyond the decision point?
thanks,
palinuro
Nikkei - feel free to ignore
Today's Nikkei.
The 08:35 bar could have been tricky (FTT -> FBO) but I'm learning to wait just
a little longer to see confirmation of change - no rush with moves like these.
Point 3 occurred roughly where I thought it might (again I was a little early
and waiting would have been fine there too). The price at the lunch break close
was exactly on the carryover TL.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Sorry, I don't have the link handy-- but I included it in the February compilation, which can be downloaded here:
download
Quote from palinuro:
Spyder,
how do you know at the time that bars like 11:05 and 12:55 are not FTTs, while bars 11:15 and 13:05 are?
And if one has made that mistake, how does one recognize the mistake and correct it before price comes back to or even beyond the decision point?
thanks,
palinuro
Quote from palinuro:
how do you know at the time that bars like 11:05 and 12:55 are not FTTs, while bars 11:15 and 13:05 are? And if one has made that mistake, how does one recognize the mistake and correct it before price comes back to or even beyond the decision point?
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
After an FTT, you should see decreasing non-dominant volume as price retraces back to the right side trend line. If you start to see dominant volume, then you know you have a flaw. In addition, note the differences in volume levels when one has an FTT and when one has a flaw. Also, watch the YM for changes which provide an advance warning for changes on the ES. As we learn additional tools, monitoring various data sets will provide the answers you seek. For now, try monitoring things from the Forest Level until you can recognize the differences on the FTT Level.
- Spydertrader
Dax
Trying to make a better job of my channels.
Whilst keeping the taping to a minimum.
The red channel looks ok, confirmed by the R2R vol, if I've identified that
properly.
The Yellow channels are previous carry over.
I'm not sure of the pink. i can see how price respects the red except for the BO
of red LTL.
It's only the dom tape that shows me an FTT just after the BO before price moves
back nto red channel.
The red Vol Exp did not help spot this.
Eventually drew in the green channel (2nd) with an FTT of the red LTL,
Price is breaking the red RTL but on light vol, so see if we get an FTT of the
pink/green, if I've annoted the pink correctly ?
welcome your comments
Thx
FilterTip
Spydertrader,
How would you diagnose the pale blue area in your chart (between 14:15-15:00)?
In real time, I annotated an FTT @ 14:30 and reversed to long. The big black
volume bar at 14:45 followed by two progressively declining red volume bars
indicated that my long assessment was correct thus far. Suddenly at 15:00, there
was a big red volume bar which accompanied a down spike in price.
My questions are:
1. At what stage should I have realised that we were still in a down channel
that began with the FTT at 14:05 and that the 14:45 high point was actually a
point 3 for this down channel?
2. At what stage should I have realised that the up channel I had drawn
beginning at 14:30 was actually a retracement within the larger down channel
that began at 14:05? And then what would have been the course of action --
reverse to short at the close of the 15:00 bar?
I ask these questions because (at least to me) volume gave every indication that
the up move from 14:30 was the new dominant trend.
Thanks!
dax
PS to previous post.
I think my definitions are off.
I should be terming the coloured "channels" as forest, however big or small ,
and the grey as channels..?
I'll have to select yet another colour for tapes..
??
thx
filterTip
This is My chart from yesterday....Gaussians are not from Forest point of
view ....But When 1,2,3 channel is broken they are right on the money and some
times acting before the price...this is my observation so far....from day to day
I like this method more and more because It makes me thinking ...and looking for
answers...
Thank you.....
Quote from KK70:
Spydertrader,
How would you diagnose the pale blue area in your chart (between 14:15-15:00)?
In real time, I annotated an FTT @ 14:30 and reversed to long. The big black volume bar at 14:45 followed by two progressively declining red volume bars indicated that my long assessment was correct thus far. Suddenly at 15:00, there was a big red volume bar which accompanied a down spike in price.
I had similar difficulties at the time. I had pt.3 at the same time as dkm, but then instead of continue I saw price stop and stall, so I figured it was a flaw of some sort and I should hold. But the fourth black bar has PRV+ so I thought I must be wrong and reversed. At the next bar I realized I should not have reversed.
Quote from dkm:
This highlights an area that I am struggling with at present, namely, how to distinguish between the point 3 of a traverse and the point 3 of wider channels. Sometimes pt 3 is on what appears to be a traverse (e.g. Spyder chart, 11:55 bar, orange channel) and at other times a traverse point 3 such as 14:25 is ignored.
In an effort to stay at the forest level, I have tried to avoid using point 3 of what I suspect to be a traverse but it is frequently difficult to distinguish between a wide traverse and a narrow channel.
Forest and Trees
Many of the charts posted over the last 24 hours missed what I have marked as
the Blue Channel on the attached chart snippet. Instead, the charts have only
the thinner up and down channels marked by the Green and Pink Arrows on the the
attached chart snippet. Individuals who failed to 'see' the Blue Channel are
ignoring the 'fractal' nature of channels - where channels form channels which
form channels. In my post (several days ago) where I discussed determining the
'size' of the forest, I discussed using Gaussians as a guide for determining
'Forest Size. Even if one considers the Green Up Channel as a Point Three
Channel, The FTT which forms (Yellow Highlight) creates a Point Three of a
larger down channel (Red Lines) In this (Red) 'Larger Forest' Context, Red
Volume is dominant. In the Blue Channel sized Forest, Black Volume dominates.
How do we determine which Forest to watch? We use the Gaussians as our guide.
After the FTT in the Pink Down Channel, Price begins to move higher on
decreasing black volume. Such a phenomenon occurs only in a down
channel. Decreasing Black Volume in an Up channels cause lateral price
movement. Last week, we had two days with similar price movement (left to right
traverse). Another poster commented on how the first day fooled him, but not the
second. When one sees such price behavior, one must consider the possibility of
a down channel. When price moves higher creating the second Blue Channel FTT,
connecting the FTT's then illuminates the correct size of the Current Forest.
The errors in direction result simply from a failure to 'see' the size of the
Forest in which one operates. By operating in a smaller Forest, you often miss
the 'bigger picture.'
- Spydertrader
__________________
a zig zag day, will it make d/top or noon b/o? stay tune.
I am honing in, my new found skill set seems to be for real. As I get more
screen time, I am seeing very specific sequences to ask about...
Today, on at least two occasions, the following sequence happened:
Got forest level FTT > price moved away from FTT (down) > point 2 formed >
retrace on lighter volume formed > was looking for point 3.....
then all of a sudden big surge of volume, and by the time PRV was showing the
surge price was at or past entry point.
QUESTION: Is this indicative of a) incorrect monitoring b) it's what you get
without the finer tools and I should be happy c) something I haven't considered.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
it look zig zag on tree level but pretty smooth on forest level
ES 6 March 07
Began with a horizontal channel but found the groove later. Still not catching
the pt 3's.
Quote from bundlemaker:
QUESTION: Is this indicative of a) incorrect monitoring b) it's what you get without the finer tools and I should be happy c) something I haven't considered.
__________________
Today's ES. Didn't know what to do with the morning and didn't get into the grove until later in the afternoon. Annotation today was sporadic as I was trying to fit in too many activities today. Point 3's were elusive today imo.
Today's findings..
Enclosed trading log, modeled after WG.
Total profit 15 points.
Would welcome any comments.
Thanks !
p.s. Spyder I know I am going ahead of were I am supposed to be as per class
Syl.. I don't know how to not trade what I see.....
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Nice annotation approach.
Question: Are you closing trades or simply reversing longs to short and vice
versa when signals come in?
Quote from optionpro007:
Enclosed trading log, modeled after WG.
Total profit 15 points.
Would welcome any comments.
Thanks !
p.s. Spyder I know I am going ahead of were I am supposed to be as per class Syl.. I don't know how to not trade what I see.....
Quote from optioncoach:
Nice annotation approach.
Question: Are you closing trades or simply reversing longs to short and vice versa when signals come in?
I have a question about the FBO around 14:40.
This seemed like a reasonable short... "forest" level FTT on the ES... FTT on
the YM... high volume mark lower than previous high volume.
Well, OK I know it IS a reasonable short (or at least I think it is). The only
problem is that the market stayed in short mode for about 5 minutes and then
took off on another long leg.
I was in this trade today -- I didn't have a problem "listening" to the market
and exiting my short as soon as the market told me so. (for minus a few ticks)
Was there any reason to stay out of this trade all together? (yes I know
hindsight is 20/20 - but this TYPE of trade burns me frequently)
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
hmmm thats a new one for me. Good job today. I can see all in working well on
a day like today with long sweeping channels but on those flatter days have you
noticed more chop from all in as opposed to taking off positions and waiting for
re-entry signals? What has been your experience?
Quote from optionpro007:
Reversing. Always in, as prescribed.
Sorry for the unwanted answer, but wouldn't the lack of volume on the
pullback after the FTT signal a weak move against the overall trend and the fact
that the next two bars moved back higher on a volume spike indicate that it was
a failed FTT?
Part of this is hopefully an answer and part of this is confirmation of whether
I read that right lol.
Quote from BA_Trader:
I have a question about the FBO around 14:40.
This seemed like a reasonable short... "forest" level FTT on the ES... FTT on the YM... high volume mark lower than previous high volume.
Well, OK I know it IS a reasonable short (or at least I think it is). The only problem is that the market stayed in short mode for about 5 minutes and then took off on another long leg.
I was in this trade today -- I didn't have a problem "listening" to the market and exiting my short as soon as the market told me so. (for minus a few ticks)
Was there any reason to stay out of this trade all together? (yes I know hindsight is 20/20 - but this TYPE of trade burns me frequently)
Note how volume is scaling back to normal. We still are seeing relatively good runs through lunch which is more money in the bank. Relax if you don't see the big picture. If you see the finer channels just think of the sequences of sub pt1, 2, 3 and forest level pt 1,2,3. If you don't see the bigger picture it's because the market has not put in the bigger view, points yet. In other words, the definition of the forest level is forth coming...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from optioncoach:
hmmm thats a new one for me. Good job today. I can see all in working well on a day like today with long sweeping channels but on those flatter days have you noticed more chop from all in as opposed to taking off positions and waiting for re-entry signals? What has been your experience?
Quote from optioncoach:
I read a lot but it is spread out all over I cannot read everything. Talking about 100s of pages and time spent on each chart and post ;).
Not sure I am a fan of always keeping a position on and just reversing all day. I would believe it more if I see it in action and not just on paper on a chop day. Maybe if I am sick in bed all day I can read old posts.
The channels and FTTs are more than enough for me to trade on
Quote from optionpro007:
Thanks OC. I am only taking baby steps here. But I am thinking chop chop days should be the most profitable for this system.
Yesterday was my first full day drawing channels. Today my first day documenting trades. Tomorrow I will move to actually doing sim to get used to placing trades. If I do ok, on Thursday I will be going live. I believe there is a huge difference trading sim to trading live. If I can break even by friday after going live, I will be the happiest guy in the world...
If you took the time to read through the material as per the first posts of this journal you would really appreciate what this system is capable of...
Just do it OC, You can do it !!
Gtty !
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
You read me right.
Quote from optioncoach:
Sorry for the unwanted answer, but wouldn't the lack of volume on the pullback after the FTT signal a weak move against the overall trend and the fact that the next two bars moved back higher on a volume spike indicate that it was a failed FTT?
Part of this is hopefully an answer and part of this is confirmation of whether I read that right lol.
__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee
Quote from optioncoach:
hmmm thats a new one for me. Good job today. I can see all in working well on a day like today with long sweeping channels but on those flatter days have you noticed more chop from all in as opposed to taking off positions and waiting for re-entry signals? What has been your experience?
I think trading chop is the final stage. The top of the food chain. When you can trade the HVS's you have arrived. Still a dream for me. Its all I can do to catch a small trend.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I think trading chop is the final stage. The top of the food chain. When you can trade the HVS's you have arrived.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from ivob:
In this case, how and when do you know that looking for a pt3 and a short entry is not the way to go. Is it the gaussian on YM at 10:40 indicating change?
__________________
Hi Mak,
I have a favor to ask you and prefer doing it here (than through pm) so
everybody following can benefit.
I plan to start using your IB Vol analyzer tomorrow but don't know how to setup
the macros.
When I open the file it asks me if I want to enable or disable macros. What
should I do ? Not sure if I need to disable them before entering information.
And after opening the sheet where do I go to change the information (I think is
username) to get it to operate.
I understand it works with IB sim also correct ?
Thanks !!
p.s. I still don't understand exactly how you guys use Gaussians in your
analysis.
I will be asking questions on this tomorrow after I have a better understanding
of what is it that I am missing.
namaste
Quote from BA_Trader:
I am wondering: was this FTT special? Is there something I missed that should have made me hesitate on the entry?
__________________
Re: Forest and Trees
Quote from Spydertrader:
Many of the charts posted over the last 24 hours missed what I have marked as the Blue Channel on the attached chart snippet. Instead, the charts have only the thinner up and down channels marked by the Green and Pink Arrows on the the attached chart snippet. Individuals who failed to 'see' the Blue Channel are ignoring the 'fractal' nature of channels - where channels form channels which form channels. In my post (several days ago) where I discussed determining the 'size' of the forest, I discussed using Gaussians as a guide for determining 'Forest Size. Even if one considers the Green Up Channel as a Point Three Channel, The FTT which forms (Yellow Highlight) creates a Point Three of a larger down channel (Red Lines) In this (Red) 'Larger Forest' Context, Red Volume is dominant. In the Blue Channel sized Forest, Black Volume dominates. How do we determine which Forest to watch? We use the Gaussians as our guide. After the FTT in the Pink Down Channel, Price begins to move higher on decreasing black volume. Such a phenomenon occurs only in a down channel. Decreasing Black Volume in an Up channels cause lateral price movement. Last week, we had two days with similar price movement (left to right traverse). Another poster commented on how the first day fooled him, but not the second. When one sees such price behavior, one must consider the possibility of a down channel. When price moves higher creating the second Blue Channel FTT, connecting the FTT's then illuminates the correct size of the Current Forest. The errors in direction result simply from a failure to 'see' the size of the Forest in which one operates. By operating in a smaller Forest, you often miss the 'bigger picture.'
- Spydertrader
btw, I am not going to be posting as often in the future, it's that I am
really excited about the material.
I don't intend to bother the magnificent work in process.
Re: Re: Forest and Trees
Quote from optionpro007:
I had to read your post 10 times to understand. Thkx.
I had no idea one can note an FTT out of a small 123 channel way out at a 5 or 6th vol exp line.
Cool.
Price begins to move higher on decreasing black volume. Such a phenomenon occurs only in a down channel.
Gaussians
Quote from optionpro007:
I still don't understand exactly how you guys use Gaussians in your analysis.
__________________
This is an almost ideal volume Gaussian example that occurred 2/27/07 at 2 pm
CST:
A mild rebuke
Quote from optioncoach:
I read a lot but it is spread out all over I cannot read everything. Talking about 100s of pages and time spent on each chart and post ;).
...
Maybe if I am sick in bed all day I can read old posts.
Quote from optionpro007:
Hi Mak,
I have a favor to ask you and prefer doing it here (than through pm) so everybody following can benefit.
I plan to start using your IB Vol analyzer tomorrow but don't know how to setup the macros....
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from cnms2:
This is an almost ideal volume Gaussian example that occurred 2/27/07 at 2 pm CST:
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: A mild rebuke
You guys really overreact to posts and are quite sensitive. I am not one of
those guys you spend hours arguing with in the other posts about this method or
that method.
The intent of my post was pretty clear. With the volume of material that exists
and lack of free time I was joking that being laid up in bed would be a perfect
opportunity to catch up on all this reading.
Please.....save the mild rebukes for those attacking you in that other thread,
the intent of my post was pretty clear. As someone with a 2 year thread with
enourmous amount of postings myself describing my trading approach in detail I
am well aware of the time and generousity involved.
Quote from PointOne:
Hi optioncoach
approaching this method without a clear mind (say from a cold or something) is not recommended and you will not do the material justice. A lot of people have given freely to educate here and it deserves more than a cursory glance from your bed. I'm sure you did not mean to be insulting but I found this comment of yours a bit arrogant. Hopefully you will take this comment the right way. By all means be enthusiastic but remember a lot of people contributing here have done the work.
The 2m-YM leading the 5m-ES, both in price and volume Gaussians, example of
2/27/07 1:30 - 2:30 pm CST:
Quote from makosgu:
Very nice... NOTE the dominants here and how the second volume peak is lower than the first volume peak. It is definitely a good idea to really iron down gaussians. However, keep in mind that if you don't get it, you won't be missing much.
optioncoach,
Glad you have a thickish skin. I'm finding what you post very valuable.
Re: Re: A mild rebuke
Quote from optioncoach:
The intent of my post was pretty clear. With the volume of material that exists and lack of free time I was joking that being laid up in bed would be a perfect opportunity to catch up on all this reading.
Please.....save the mild rebukes for those attacking you in that other thread, the intent of my post was pretty clear. As someone with a 2 year thread with enourmous amount of postings myself describing my trading approach in detail I am well aware of the time and generousity involved.
Just got back from a 2 week vacation in the 50th state and I am getting
caught up in the discussion. The change in sylabus, where March is used to
improve your PV skill is greatly appreciated. Before I left on vacation I was
beginning to read too much into every bar and I think a more relaxed bigger
picture focus will really help me.
mahalo,
Re: Gaussians
Quote from Spydertrader:
Gaussians permit you to understand the context in which Price operates - the 'size' of the Forest. If, for example, you find yourself viewing a Price retrace of an Up Channel, one would expect decreasing red volume to occur over the entire traverse. Knowing the size of the Forest allows you to monitor for continuation and change while experiencing stress free trading because you know where you are, and more importantly, you know what comes next. Just as we place importance in drawing channels correctly, so too, must one monitor the Gaussian formations within that same channel context. Too often, traders choose a finer resolution with which to monitor Gaussian formations without even realizing it. I'll try to include some notations on Gaussians in my ES Chart tomorrow.
Perhaps, Jack can post his thoughts on Gaussians as well.
-Spydertrader
DAX
Heres is an update.
I think I am interpreting the vol correctly, but again for me it's about knowing
the context it applies within..
Ie we had increasing red vol on each red bar, but how to tell that it will cont
or retrace (and by how much) is where i get confused.
I drew in the orange down channel ( small forest) when i felt I had a point
1.2.3...
thx
FilterTip
Re: DAX
Quote from FilterTip:
Heres is an update.
I think I am interpreting the vol correctly, but again for me it's about knowing the context it applies within..
Ie we had increasing red vol on each red bar, but how to tell that it will cont or retrace (and by how much) is where i get confused.
I drew in the orange down channel ( small forest) when i felt I had a point 1.2.3...
thx
FilterTip
dax
the red FTT ?? turned out to be an FTT.
FBO of orange (red) channel but red vol on down move so far decreasing.
Perhaps this will be a point 3 of a new up channel coming out of the red down
channel ?
FilterTip
Re: dax
Quote from FilterTip:
the red FTT ?? turned out to be an FTT.
FBO of orange (red) channel but red vol on down move so far decreasing.
Perhaps this will be a point 3 of a new up channel coming out of the red down channel ?
FilterTip
Quote from makosgu:
Very nice... NOTE the dominants here and how the second volume peak is lower than the first volume peak. It is definitely a good idea to really iron down gaussians. However, keep in mind that if you don't get it, you won't be missing much.
Re: Re: dax
Quote from FilterTip:
Forgive the post here..but what do you know..I drew in the 2nd green channel on the ANALYSIS of there being reduced red vol in the last down move down towards the red FTT.
We have the green channel ( forgot to write in the point 1.2.3, but you see them hopefully.)
We have black vol pushing up, ( but not as we know it Jim)..
it's rather low..possible FTT of green channel..?
Is this the way to analyse the vol and gaussians..?
It's knowing when to be zoomed in and/or zoomed out..
We have to try to do both..?
Or be aware as to when one or other is required..?
difficult though..
DAX
This is the larger view.
Todays annotation are scrunched up to see it.
You can see where the pale blue line came from..a down channel.
price as broken that pale blue RTL so maybe the dark blue up channel is in
control..
the red FTT and start of 2nd green channel on previous chart confirmed this
larger dark blue point 3.
Re: DAX
Quote from FilterTip:
This is the larger view.
Todays annotation are scrunched up to see it.
You can see where the pale blue line came from..a down channel.
price as broken that pale blue RTL so maybe the dark blue up channel is in control..
the red FTT and start of 2nd green channel on previous chart confirmed this larger dark blue point 3.
Re: Re: DAX
Quote from FilterTip:
Finally, closer in again, this is the adherance of price to the green channel and break of pale blue RTL with dark blue RTL as (EDIT possible, must not predict) support.
PS. sorry forgot the Green Vol Exp line whilst posting..
Re: Re: Gaussians
Quote from FilterTip:
At times I feel like I'm being bit of a pain posting here, but I'm here to learn and my efforts are sincere.
I am losing the context within which the gaussian apply.
I understand the reference to the perspective of the channel, but as in the attached chart, I'm seeing initial down move with high red vol, I'm then seeing an up move (retrace ?) on diminishing black vol. However this "retrace" continues all the wy to = the range so far on the day ( nearly 40 points).
the pink line is carry over from fall of last week. the yellow is carry over from the up move over las days.
I put in the light blue from 15 chart.
I don't see where the forest is for today so far..
How can we use gaussians to give us that perspective..
thx
Ps MAK. I would also be grateful for the prv xls tool to work for Esignal. I'm not adding tools without thought, but I find the vol ratio very hard to figure out in real time. I'm more a visual person.
filterTip
Re: Re: Re: DAX
Quote from FilterTip:
finally..finally
Green vol exp held..we have move down to grenn and dark blue RTL but on decreasing red vol..let see if it holds..the brake of pale blue RTL may act as and increase support too
Edit ..the pink is a down RTL from the highs (point 3's) of last weeks large sell off..so interesting to see how price reacts to that..
Re: Re: Gaussians
Quote from FilterTip:
I don't see where the forest is for today so far..
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Gaussians
Quote from Spydertrader:
Everyone needs to learn to apply the correct Gaussian Formation with the correct channel. Note the decreasing black volume across the entire blue down channel (black arrows). Note also, the increasing black volume (within that overall channel) applied to the specific up channel (green arrows).
Just like Channels, Gaussians have a fractal nature to them as well.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Gaussians
Quote from Spydertrader:
You need to learn to apply the correct Gaussian Formation with the correct channel. Note the decreasing black volume across the entire blue down channel (black arrows). Note also, the increasing black volume (within that overall channel) applied to the specific up channel (green arrows). Just like Channels, Gaussians have a fractal nature to them as well.
- Spydertrader
DAx
further to your post spydertrader..
i can see the decreasing balck vol on pale blue channel retrace. and increase
red vol on dominant travers..
I was expecting increased black vol on FBO of dark blue channel which we got
but how do we assess the transfer of vol from overall red to overall black..?
We have a bit of both where I have the black maks on the vol pain ..
do we assess the red / black vol at major FTT's and FBO I suppose ?
Re: DAx
Quote from FilterTip:
further to your post spydertrader..
i can see the decreasing balck vol on pale blue channel retrace. and increase red vol on dominant travers..
I was expecting increased black vol on FBO of dark blue channel which we got
but how do we assess the transfer of vol from overall red to overall black..?
We have a bit of both where I have the black maks on the vol pain ..
do we assess the red / black vol at major FTT's and FBO I suppose ?
Re: DAx
Quote from FilterTip:
but how do we assess the transfer of vol from overall red to overall black..?
__________________
plz save me from going thru all 300 plus pages of this journal,i'm sure i'm not the first to ask,can i subscribe to this charting data or is it your personal program?
Quote from ammo:
plz save me from going thru all 300 plus pages of this journal,i'm sure i'm not the first to ask,can i subscribe to this charting data or is it your personal program?
cont...
Well we got the push off the Dark blue with incre black vol..
I put in a yellow 1.2.3 as the green vol exp were cont.. looks like an FTT of
the yellow channel..but we have decre red vol on this non- dom of the
Yellow..see if we get a 2nd point 3 or BO of Yellow RTL..
and the dark blue seemed so wide at the time of annotating it..
fascinating stuff..
Mr Hershey..if you get to read this..well it's all your fault.
Now I can no longer seek refuge and comfort in my old CW..
"think of your limitations and sure enough they are yours"
R.Bach "Illussions"
filterTip
I am still not sold on a consistent YM leading the ES, however after going
long ES at around 9:40 or so, the price was stalling back and forth and my YM
2-minute chart starting jumping higher and eventually ES began to break out of
the 10-minute battle.
When I was concerned about the long, watching the YM start to break out of its
pullback kept me in the long ES trade for a nice profit scalp. So at least for
this morning it helped in my decision but I will leave the bigger question if YM
leads ES for you ;).
Quote from FilterTip:
cont...
Well we got the push off the Dark blue with incre black vol..
I put in a yellow 1.2.3 as the green vol exp were cont.. looks like an FTT of the yellow channel..but we have decre red vol on this non- dom of the Yellow..see if we get a 2nd point 3 or BO of Yellow RTL..
and the dark blue seemed so wide at the time of annotating it..
fascinating stuff..
Mr Hershey..if you get to read this..well it's all your fault.
Now I can no longer seek refuge and comfort in my old CW..
"think of your limitations and sure enough they are yours"
R.Bach "Illussions"
filterTip
Quote from FilterTip:
Yellow BO..red down channel looking for point 3 as this no dom retrace of red is on low balck vol
Quote from optioncoach:
I am still not sold on a consistent YM leading the ES, however after going long ES at around 9:40 or so, the price was stalling back and forth and my YM 2-minute chart starting jumping higher and eventually ES began to break out of the 10-minute battle.
When I was concerned about the long, watching the YM start to break out of its pullback kept me in the long ES trade for a nice profit scalp. So at least for this morning it helped in my decision but I will leave the bigger question if YM leads ES for you ;).
This is how I read this nice sequence....
9:50 FTT for reason Volume change red
9:55 Bo no entry for reason price is on LTL and Vol gaussians B2R
10:00 FTT for reason Volume turn Black
10:05 FBO followed by FTT on increasing red vol bar
10:10 BO Gaussians B2R, B2 Entry ....Point 3
10:15 Hold
10:20 Hold
10:25 Hold
10:30 Hold
10:35 Take profit on LTL.....
Quote from FilterTip:
Well we had a red point 3 of sorts..but I am remembering that this red is jaust a decre red vol non dom of the dark blue..perhaps..!
Filter...
Just as a request, would you mind keeping your log entries into a journal like
others have done, to keep the pages to a minimum. I think the past 4 pages have
been nothing but your market observations... hope you dont take it the wrong way
Quote from Jander:
Filter...
Just as a request, would you mind keeping your log entries into a journal like others have done, to keep the pages to a minimum. I think the past 4 pages have been nothing but your market observations... hope you dont take it the wrong way
Quote from FilterTip:
Jander.
My appologies, although you are the first to complain ( politely) I shall stop posting.
I did give reeasons before as to why I was posting.
And perhaps it's what I need to do..ie; put it out there to show myself ..
Lastley, I was having (and no doubt ) will cont to have problems.
This is all in real time, and hopefuly it has helped others to see how to identify thngs esp point 3, and that it can be done.
this is all probably a bit crass for those that can do it but I'm still new to this..
I shall leave you to the more informative posts on this thread..
kind Regards
FilterTip
It definitely does lead when it matters (ie change), if you spend enought
time watching, you'll see.
Quote from optioncoach:
I am still not sold on a consistent YM leading the ES, however after going long ES at around 9:40 or so, the price was stalling back and forth and my YM 2-minute chart starting jumping higher and eventually ES began to break out of the 10-minute battle.
When I was concerned about the long, watching the YM start to break out of its pullback kept me in the long ES trade for a nice profit scalp. So at least for this morning it helped in my decision but I will leave the bigger question if YM leads ES for you ;).
Quote from optioncoach:
I am still not sold on a consistent YM leading the ES...
Quote from Tums:
edit: this might help
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&pagenumber=155
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ads#post1364775
Quote from Jander:
FT
I think you misunderstood.. I value your posts and have learned some things from them. I just requested that you sum up your debriefs/thoughts into a few posts if possible. I dont think every realization needs to be posted in realtime because very few of us follow the DAX in realtime. If you posted your results end of day with times on them we would all believe you. Again, I hope you continue to post your findings and I apologize if my comments were taken out of context
Had a nice aha moment just now, I'm watching the ym and spot FTT at 11:32
bar, followed by pt 2 at 11:40 bar and pt 3 at 11:46. Ok got my channel. Now I
am watching ES and spot the FTT before it happens at 11:35 bar. find my pt 2 and
3 on the next two bars. Then comes the aha moment. On YM I see price test
(actually slightly break) my LTL on 11:54 bar. Next bar is red dominant volume
but price does not really go down. I think to myself, if we are going to get a
retrace, it should be on non dom volume back to the RTL. Instead I see dom
volume. I think I must be seeing a flaw. I then think to myself that I am
anticipating a volitilty expansion on the ES (as I continue to monitor what YM
does in conjuction w/ the ES). Sure enough, price ticks in one or two ticks and
then shoot up strongly.
Although I dont know how to fully identify a falw, what I saw on YM bar at 11:56
seemed different. I'm not sure if my analysis is correct but the market gave me
info that I used to anticipate what would happen next. Felt real good
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Had a nice aha moment just now, I'm watching the ym and spot FTT at 11:32 bar, followed by pt 2 at 11:40 bar and pt 3 at 11:46. Ok got my channel. Now I am watching ES and spot the FTT before it happens at 11:35 bar. find my pt 2 and 3 on the next two bars. Then comes the aha moment. On YM I see price test (actually slightly break) my LTL on 11:54 bar. Next bar is red dominant volume but price does not really go down. I think to myself, if we are going to get a retrace, it should be on non dom volume back to the RTL. Instead I see dom volume. I think I must be seeing a flaw. I then think to myself that I am anticipating a volitilty expansion on the ES (as I continue to monitor what YM does in conjuction w/ the ES). Sure enough, price ticks in one or two ticks and then shoot up strongly.
Although I dont know how to fully identify a falw, what I saw on YM bar at 11:56 seemed different. I'm not sure if my analysis is correct but the market gave me info that I used to anticipate what would happen next. Felt real good
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Ye Freaking Ha...
Been long this channel up from 1394... at 9:30am PST... was trying my patience
for awhile with the constant backfilling but now at 10:38 PST we broke
yesterday's highs and i took a small scale out but since the channel is intact i
am still long my bulk entry....
cj...
HAVE STOP WILL TRADE
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
My chart for today.....
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
snip. . . Although I dont know how to fully identify a falw, what I saw on YM bar at 11:56 seemed different. I'm not sure if my analysis is correct but the market gave me info that I used to anticipate what would happen next. Felt real good
Quote from ammo:
plz save me from going thru all 300 plus pages of this journal,i'm sure i'm not the first to ask,can i subscribe to this charting data or is it your personal program?
Thanks Mak, you made my day with this post!
also, along the same lines i was observaing what i saw as possible flaws all the
way up (based on how i was reading the volume). Then, on YM bar 13:40 i see
lower lows on non dom volume. To me, this signalled that price action has
changed. My system crashed before I got the opportunity to do this but I wanted
to sell ES on the test of the high on 13:45 bar close IF that high was made on
less buying volume. Like clockwork, es dropped from there as it did make a new
high but on less buying vol and then was aided by the beige book release to
further declines.
I feel real good today, by far the most "ahas" thus far
Quote from makosgu:
These are super observations of what you are looking for and how sequences unravel. You highlighted all the really BIG components of what would cause price to change. I commend these type of posts because it shows us what you are thinking and how in tune you are to sequences. Trading should be NO SWEAT! Your post are similar to the thought process I go through... Keep at it. It only gets easier. SUPER!
Was able to scalp 4.50 points today in ES which is not bad considering I was
in the gym for almost 2 hours at mid-day and have stopped for the day as well
;).
Biggest revelation for me was how volatility expansion lines come back to be of
use.
There was a nice tree channel off of the breakout from the Fotrrest channel that
goes back to even the pre-market. The tree channel broke out at around 12:40 and
ran higher. After the beige Book at 2:00 the market fell out of the channel
(where I shorted for a quick 1.25 poitns) and a volatility expansion channel was
created which was adhered to by the market for 30 minutes and counting.
In the chart below the purple is the upward tree and the green line is the
volatility expansion. Assuming I did this correctly.
EDIT: and I missed the short once it broke out of the expanded channel on the
2:55 bar. (was making lunch lol)
EDIT #2: breakout followed a FTT which would have gave an indication of the
breakout. Market is snapping back to the trendline it just broke out of but we
will see if it holds..
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Had a nice aha moment just now..
Quote from ammo:
plz save me from going thru all 300 plus pages of this journal,i'm sure i'm not the first to ask,can i subscribe to this charting data or is it your personal program?
Quote from Mr_Black:
My chart for today.....
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from optionpro007:
You can subscribe.
Send a PM to Hypostomus for the info...
Just kidding.
There is no subscription, all material is made from scratch.
If you want to go through the pages quicker, you can go to your acct settings and specify you want to see as many posts as possible per page (I think is 40) that will reduce this thread to about 50 pages currently.
That little change saved me a few months of time while catching up.
Good luck.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Man I am sorry I was making lunch at the time of that breakout I mentioned in
edit #2. I papertraded it by putting an order to short at 1399.50. We are around
1394.50 or so. I wonder what I could buy with all those paper profits ;).
Quote from optioncoach:
Was able to scalp 4.50 points today in ES which is not bad considering I was in the gym for almost 2 hours at mid-day and have stopped for the day as well ;).
Biggest revelation for me was how volatility expansion lines come back to be of use.
There was a nice tree channel off of the breakout from the Fotrrest channel that goes back to even the pre-market. The tree channel broke out at around 12:40 and ran higher. After the beige Book at 2:00 the market fell out of the channel (where I shorted for a quick 1.25 poitns) and a volatility expansion channel was created which was adhered to by the market for 30 minutes and counting.
In the chart below the purple is the upward tree and the green line is the volatility expansion. Assuming I did this correctly.
EDIT: and I missed the short once it broke out of the expanded channel on the 2:55 bar. (was making lunch lol)
EDIT #2: breakout followed a FTT which would have gave an indication of the breakout. Market is snapping back to the trendline it just broke out of but we will see if it holds..
Quote from optioncoach:
Man I am sorry I was making lunch at the time of that breakout I mentioned in edit #2. I papertraded it by putting an order to short at 1399.50. We are around 1394.50 or so. I wonder what I could buy with all those paper profits ;).
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from EdgeHunter:
Ye Freaking Ha...
Been long this channel up from 1394... at 9:30am PST... was trying my patience for awhile with the constant backfilling but now at 10:38 PST we broke yesterday's highs and i took a small scale out but since the channel is intact i am still long my bulk entry....
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
ES 7 Mar 07
My pic..
I tap outed after congestion period 2pm - 3:10pm, it was exhausting to follow
them, hat off to those who follow it to the end
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart.
I've added some extra annotations after market close in an effort to show those
still struggling with Gaussians how to 'ignore' the fine detail (for now) while
remaining focused on the larger picture.
Judging from the nuymber and quality of psots today, it does appear that most
enjoyed a pretty good day. Nciely done. Keep up the great work.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Had a nice aha moment just now, I'm watching the ym and spot FTT at 11:32 bar, followed by pt 2 at 11:40 bar and pt 3 at 11:46. Ok got my channel. Now I am watching ES and spot the FTT before it happens at 11:35 bar. find my pt 2 and 3 on the next two bars. Then comes the aha moment. On YM I see price test (actually slightly break) my LTL on 11:54 bar. Next bar is red dominant volume but price does not really go down. I think to myself, if we are going to get a retrace, it should be on non dom volume back to the RTL. Instead I see dom volume. I think I must be seeing a flaw. I then think to myself that I am anticipating a volitilty expansion on the ES (as I continue to monitor what YM does in conjuction w/ the ES). Sure enough, price ticks in one or two ticks and then shoot up strongly.
Although I dont know how to fully identify a falw, what I saw on YM bar at 11:56 seemed different. I'm not sure if my analysis is correct but the market gave me info that I used to anticipate what would happen next. Felt real good
My take on the day....
John
Quote from ammo:
plz save me from going thru all 300 plus pages of this journal,i'm sure i'm not the first to ask,can i subscribe to this charting data or is it your personal program?
__________________
Quote from Pr0crast:
Sorry, I don't have the link handy-- but I included it in the February compilation, which can be downloaded here:
download
Quote from Spydertrader:
Prepare you do to fail, when short cuts you seek.
- Yodatrader
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from ammo:
plz save me from going thru all 300 plus pages of this journal,i'm sure i'm not the first to ask,can i subscribe to this charting data or is it your personal program?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Prepare to fail you do, when short cuts you seek.
- Yodatrader
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Re: Today's YM Chart
Spyder or however feels they understand please help.
I'm seeing most of the annotations correctly in realtime. In reviewing Spyders
chart I have a few questions.
1. the green FTT above the red 1 at 10:35, can you have a FTT on the same bar as
the volitility expansion or is the FTT the following bar. Please explain this
situation. I do see the volume on the red reversal bar decreasing. Is the
decreasing volume or the reversal bar the reason for the FTT there?
2. shouldn't there be a red FTT around the 11:30 bar?
3. once price bo of the brown down channel and rentered it do you still look for
an FTT in that channel? If so should there be one in the same area as the
previous question?
Yesterdays chart appeared to have the same feature, a FTT on a volitility
expansion bar.
Thanks
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's YM Chart
Quote from ticktrade:
Spyder or however feels they understand please help.
I'm seeing most of the annotations correctly in realtime. In reviewing Spyders chart I have a few questions.
1. the green FTT above the red 1 at 10:35, can you have a FTT on the same bar as the volatility expansion or is the FTT the following bar. Please explain this situation. I do see the volume on the red reversal bar decreasing. Is the decreasing volume or the reversal bar the reason for the FTT there?
2. shouldn't there be a red FTT around the 11:30 bar?
3. once price bo of the brown down channel and reentered it do you still look for an FTT in that channel? If so should there be one in the same area as the previous question?
Yesterdays chart appeared to have the same feature, a FTT on a volatility expansion bar.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Today's YM Chart
Thanks Spyder
Do you still consider that the forest level. I guess you do or you wouldn't have
posted it. Just hard for me to see at that resolution. It was a good resistance
area to be looking for that although I don't imagine that is part of the current
methods.
I have been happy with the progress at the forest level however I use finer
resolution and volume dryups to enter on RTL. Seem like there is always some
choppy point of the day where this causes me to give back most of my gains, when
debriefing I can see exactly the errors of my ways. I much as I want to run I
continue to slip on the leaves.
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES Chart.
I've added some extra annotations after market close in an effort to show those still struggling with Gaussians how to 'ignore' the fine detail (for now) while remaining focused on the larger picture.
Judging from the nuymber and quality of psots today, it does appear that most enjoyed a pretty good day. Nciely done. Keep up the great work.
- Spydertrader
In case anybody is wondering why I didn't post today's trading log, it was
because truth must be told, I screwed up big time.
And even though I screwed up big time (overtraded/42RT) I ended up the day down
only 0.25+comm. I can post the sheet if anybody is interested.
I believe (know) I am overtrading i.e. trying to trade at a Makosqu level
(because I get bored) without the experience or the tools.
I would appreciated if Spyder could give me an idea, at the level we are now,
how many trades should have been logged today and if possible the entry and exit
for these trades according to where we are supposed to be in the Syl...
Thanks.
Quote from optionpro007:
I would appreciated if Spyder could give me an idea, at the level we are now, how many trades should have been logged today and if possible the entry and exit for these trades according to where we are supposed to be in the Syl...
__________________
Quote from optionpro007:
In case anybody is wondering why I didn't post today's trading log, it was because truth must be told, I screwed up big time.
And even though I screwed up big time (overtraded/42RT) I ended up the day down only 0.25+comm. I can post the sheet if anybody is interested.
I believe (know) I am overtrading i.e. trying to trade at a Makosqu level (because I get bored) without the experience or the tools.
I would appreciated if Spyder could give me an idea, at the level we are now, how many trades should have been logged today and if possible the entry and exit for these trades according to where we are supposed to be in the Syl...
Thanks.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Relax. Slow down. Trading should not involve stress of any kind. If you follow along at your current resolution level (using the current tool set) you'll remain calm, cool and collected throughout the day. Remember, we learn to crawl, before attempting to walk, run or fly.
Based on your previous posts, I have you sitting somewhere between the 'Forest' and the 'Trees.' If I have misinterpreted your current operating resolution, let me know. Attached, please find a chart of today's ES containing annotations for long, short and exit points. I have taken the liberty of including a delay in signal recognition, as well as, slippage into these annotations.
Let me know if you still have additional questions.
- Spydertrader
Quote from bundlemaker:
Optionpro,
This should be a clear sign to you that you haven't done the work. You need to go back and start at the beginning. Slowly.
There are no short cuts.
If you had taken the time to read the thread, even cursorily, you would already have the answer to your question. Forest level trading will usually produce something like 2-6 trades per day.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Relax. Slow down. Trading should not involve stress of any kind. If you follow along at your current resolution level (using the current tool set) you'll remain calm, cool and collected throughout the day. Remember, we learn to crawl, before attempting to walk, run or fly.
Based on your previous posts, I have you sitting somewhere between the 'Forest' and the 'Trees.' If I have misinterpreted your current operating resolution, let me know. Attached, please find a chart of today's ES containing annotations for long, short and exit points. I have taken the liberty of including a delay in signal recognition, as well as, slippage into these annotations.
Let me know if you still have additional questions.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Jander:
Anyone care to take a stab?
Quote from Jander:
1] long at 9:30
Quote from Jander:
2] reverse short 9:50
Quote from Jander:
3] reverse long 10:10
Quote from Jander:
4] reverse short 10:45
Quote from Jander:
5] exit 11:40
Quote from Jander:
6] long at 11:50
Quote from Jander:
7] reverse short at 13:55
Quote from Jander:
8] exit on close
__________________
No worries
Quote from optionpro007:
I understand how I am making this much harder than it is...
Again, relax, kick back,
and remain patient. The market provides enough hurdles for us in real time. no
need for us to go creating additional ones for ourselves.__________________
Spyder
I was just going to agree with Jander that a breakdown of the thought process
would be of great benefit. As I opened a window to post this, your post of the
breakdown came. For me it is a huge learning tool to see this. I have one
question regarding the 9:50 short. I see it clearly but you mention the
decreasing red volume. What do you see in that decreasing vol bar. I would think
ideally you would want that to be increasing. The black vol bar before was large
and price did come off the high. I imagine it would have been asking a lot to
have the red bar increasing. The fact that you mentioned it made it seem
significant and I don't understand that. The delta on that decreasing red bar
was almost all selling and the ym ftt was accompanied by a delta shift from
6:50-6:54 so it was clear what was going on.
Thanks for taking the time to break that down it was a huge help. At least for
me.
Re: No worries
Quote from Spydertrader:
The hardest thing to learn is 'sitting on your hands.'
Quote from ticktrade:
I have one question regarding the 9:50 short. I see it clearly but you mention the decreasing red volume. What do you see in that decreasing vol bar. I would think ideally you would want that to be increasing.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
ES price breaks through the right side trend line signaling an exit. I gave credit here for missing the FTT which occurred on the ES red down channel at 11:35 AM. Again, I tried to make things as realistic as possible - including slippage, missed signals and late recognition.
- Spydertrader
Quote from makosgu:
Man what a difference 8+ weeks have made... This is training and running drills at it's finest... Bar by bar, day by day, trade by trade...
Quote from Spydertrader:
O.K.
etc..
The above signals / decision points were based on someone who switches resolution levels between a 'Forest' and 'Tree' level resolution. In other words, a trader who feels comfortable entering both on an FTT and on a Point Three. However, all traders on the 'Forest' Level Resolution should have at least caught the Point Three Entry at 11:50 AM on the ES.
Hope that helped.
- Spydertrader
Even if you missed the 11:50 pt 3 there was another entry on the 12:25 bar and yet again at 13:05.
Quote from Spydertrader:
O.K.
In fact, many probably felt the 13:35 / 13:40 bars were forming an FTT, but based on Volume we could tell this was a flaw. If anyone was fooled here, don't fret it. With time and experience, you won't be - red volume levels were way too low for it to be an FTT, and you'll recognize that in the future (if you didn't already).
- Spydertrader
Quote from ivob:
That's a little confusing because low red volume is exactly what we would expect after an FTT in an up channel or not? I guess then it shouldn't be too low then...
regards,
Ivo
Quote from palinuro:
But I wonder what would have happened if I were trading.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
As I often try to do with situations such as these, I prefer to take you back to what I knew (or thought I knew) at the point I made my decision.
We start the day with an FTT on the ES (Point One). Over the first four bars of the day, we see increasing black volume. As such, my brain thinks - uptrend. After all, we expect to see decreasing volume in a retrace. Here, we have increasing black volume as price improves. In addition, I already have an uptrend developing with the YM. When price begins to pull back on the ES (Point two, my brain says), and the YM shows an FTT, I expect to see decreasing red volume as price retraces back toward my anticipated Point Three on the ES. When price breaks the 'uptrend thin green channel' on my previous charts, combined with red volume (with less volume showing on a PRV basis than the 9:45 bar), I feel pretty confident that everything is going to progress exactly as I expect. My sole concern developed as time moved closer to the end of the 9:50 bar. At this point, I see significantly lower volume than I would normally expect to see at an FTT. Now, I entertain the idea that I may actually have a flaw of some sort developing. However, since I do not have anything (YM Price / Volume, ES Volume or ES Price signaling 'change' I reach the conclusion that I have 'continuation' and continue to hold. The 9:55 bar on the ES then confirms my decision to hold by bushing Price even lower (and creating a small volatility expansion). At the 10:00 AM bar, I see Price begin to slow in its downward pace, as well as a reduction in volume. As a result, I begin to think 'change' should be upcoming (after all, we did just have a Volatility Expansion, and I am now on the look out for an FTT). I also notice Price failed to make it to the left trend line (skinny red lines) and I begin to look for a possible trend change. When Price again fails to reach the left trend line on the 10:05 bar, and begins to head higher, I already see an FTT on the YM and PRV volume on the ES tells me to expect increasing black once again. All that remains to complete my data set is to see Price breach the right side trend line of this down channel. When it does, one enters long.
The above description went a little farther than your question, but I wanted to show how the process really doesn't require any sort of hyper activity. In reality, we had more than enough information to reach a conclusion at almost every step. One didn't need to go check the YM, but it certainly was nice to see it confirm everything as we walked through the morning's opening bars.
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: No worries
Quote from Pr0crast:
This is an extremely true statement. Being someone that is used to doing fifteen things at once, this has been the hardest thing of all to learn. Things that seem to work: watching a movie on monitor #2, listening to zen-inducing music, brewing lots of chinese tea, lighting candles, and tackling all those addicting online puzzle games. When the account grows a bit, I think it would be +EV to hire a personal masseuse to have on hand for the entirety of the market day
Great posts today Spyder, very helpful stuff.
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Nice rundown Spyder.
Made 5 points on ES channels this morning yaaaaay.
Got whipsawed on YM boooo
Still up net on the two combined plus a British Pound trade I did this morning
using the channels.
GOOD POINTS: Been catching my entries very well on breakouts or bounces off of
the trendline.
BAD POINTS: Still hard to shake scalping mentality and cutting out of positions
too soon. Have to stay in until serious FTT or channel reverses. Closed out long
ES at 1406.75, we are now at 1408. Closed Pound at 10 pips, it ran about 30 pips
before noticeable FTT appeared.
TRUST THE CHANNEL..... THE CHANNEL IS YOUR FRIEND....THE CHANNEL IS SCREAMING
STAY WITH ME UNTIL I GET TIRED...I WILL ALWAYS PULL BACK A BIT AFTER A
LARGE JUMP CAUSE I NEED TO REGAIN MY STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT LEG HIGHER BUT I AM
NOT TRYING TO PUSH YOU AWAY. IF I AM TOO WORN OUT TO CONTINUE THE MOVE I WILL
LET YOU KNOW SO DON'T WORRY.
.. sorry but I hate missing out on another 2.50 points as well as 25 YM points
if I was not shaken (but not stirred) out.
Spydertrader, with all due respect, THEY know where most of US put money on the line, and almost always retrace to it. I don't think they're watching simulated money.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
It is very hard to watch price move back significantly against you. On a wide channel, waiting for a RTL to exit can cost you a lot of money so I think the pace of the market has to have a lot to do with this decision if you are not reversing. If price has moved signicantly I will start looking for an ftt to get out on rather than waiting for it to head back to the RTL. This morning is a good example. The RTL is 3 or 4 points away as we speak.
Quote from optioncoach:
...
BAD POINTS: Still hard to shake scalping mentality and cutting out of positions too soon. Have to stay in until serious FTT or channel reverses. Closed out long ES at 1406.75, we are now at 1408. Closed Pound at 10 pips, it ran about 30 pips before noticeable FTT appeared.
TRUST THE CHANNEL..... THE CHANNEL IS YOUR FRIEND....THE CHANNEL IS SCREAMING STAY WITH ME UNTIL I GET TIRED...I WILL ALWAYS PULL BACK A BIT AFTER A LARGE JUMP CAUSE I NEED TO REGAIN MY STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT LEG HIGHER BUT I AM NOT TRYING TO PUSH YOU AWAY. IF I AM TOO WORN OUT TO CONTINUE THE MOVE I WILL LET YOU KNOW SO DON'T WORRY.
, yes, it is the next
great step. Round the clock, many markets opening up throughout the day,
trillions of dollars changing hands... This is probably 2 years out on the
syllabus as it would require variants of tools...__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Nice 1st hour for ES....Volume and Price easy to read
Quote from Bearbelly:
It is very hard to watch price move back significantly against you. On a wide channel, waiting for a RTL to exit can cost you a lot of money so I think the pace of the market has to have a lot to do with this decision if you are not reversing. If price has moved signicantly I will start looking for an ftt to get out on rather than waiting for it to head back to the RTL. This morning is a good example. The RTL is 3 or 4 points away as we speak.
__________________
LOL. I was sitting here looking at my chart and I did notice that the RTL of the traverse channel was a nice exit point. Was going to say something to this effect but you beat me to the punch. Its starting to get easier once you get these little nuances in place.
Quote from Spydertrader:
- Spydertrader
- Spydertrader
Hope everyone is not as dumb as me and changed their charts to "ESM7" from
"ESH7". I'm annotating and thinking, damn, vol is really light
also, YMM7 as well
I knew today was the rollover day but most action will still be in the March this week. I think you will see volume shift more next week (obviously given its expiration) but for this week I am sticking with March...
Look at both charts, the newer contract has a lot more volume than the old
one. I would switch.
Quote from optioncoach:
I knew today was the rollover day but most action will still be in the March this week. I think you will see volume shift more next week (obviously given its expiration) but for this week I am sticking with March...
Quote from optioncoach:
I knew today was the rollover day but most action will still be in the March this week. I think you will see volume shift more next week (obviously given its expiration) but for this week I am sticking with March...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
The only issue i see with the June contract is that my charts have the wrong
prices. I hope spyder will comment on what we should do on this kind of day.
edit: i figured it out, all is well
LOL...Yeah, same thing happened to me. I was sitting here annotating thinking
about how damn slow things were going. Much more volume on the June contract!
John
You guys must not be using IB or Buttontrader.
This is My chart til noon....
Extreme thinking
Spyder:
Based on the pattern movements, is there a way to calculate/estimate more or
less the openning price of ESmini/direction the next day?
Does it make make sense to keep the position open at the EOD & reverse it soon
when market opens next morning?
From my observation, if the pattern of ES developed maturely the previous day,
then it has an inverse effect( opposite direction) at the second day morning as
to the price direction goes.
This is an extreme assumption and beyond the scope of JH's.
A gambler's game to play??
Really? The volume difference today between Mar and Jun is not that far off
where you should have noticed a major difference. Both charts have the same
profile today. High lows have same range from open of market to recent highs.
Both turned at same points and had same extensions. I think if you were not
aware of rollover and used MARCH today and tomorrow, you should still have made
the same trading decisions.
Quote from jbarnby:
LOL...Yeah, same thing happened to me. I was sitting here annotating thinking about how damn slow things were going. Much more volume on the June contract!
John
Quote from optioncoach:
Really? The volume difference today between Mar and Jun is not that far off where you should have noticed a major difference. Both charts have the same profile today. High lows have same range from open of market to recent highs. Both turned at same points and had same extensions. I think if you were not aware of rollover and used MARCH today and tomorrow, you should still have made the same trading decisions.
Re: Extreme thinking
Quote from bucherwin:
Based on the pattern movements, is there a way to calculate/estimate more or less the opening price of ESmini/direction the next day?
Quote from bucherwin:
Does it make make sense to keep the position open at the EOD & reverse it soon when market opens next morning?
Quote from bucherwin:
From my observation, if the pattern of ES developed maturely the previous day, then it has an inverse effect( opposite direction) at the second day morning as to the price direction goes.
Quote from bucherwin:
This is an extreme assumption and beyond the scope of JH's.
Quote from bucherwin:
A gambler's game to play??
__________________
Failed to spot anything until 14:10. Took a nice ride short and then tried to
short again at 15:00, 15:10 and 15:20. Hit 3 RTL breaks in a row. Seeing the b2b
I took at long at 15:30 and ran straight into the FTT. Down for the day
it's a nice day to observe YM def leads ES, how come we never heard about
this ( there is talking about they each take turn in leading but when! nobody
know). Is the rest of trading world still sleeping? Note: this not official
ver., it's just more pleasing to the eyes
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Today's YM Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
I am beginning to notice certain things about channels that have some "predictive" powers if I am permitted to use that word. How long the channel is, how well it is "taping" and its slope often give some pretty good clues to what might be coming next.
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Rod
"My destiny will NOT be denied. His will be done." - Patton
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from nzbryant:
Hi Spyder
On your ES chart today (thanks), how can the first FTT on the bottom be an FTT? It is touching the left (red) trendline.
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from nzbryant:
On your ES chart today (thanks), how can the first FTT on the bottom be an FTT? It is touching the left (red) trendline.
__________________
Quote from Bearbelly:
I am beginning to notice certain things about channels that have some "predictive" powers if I am permitted to use that word. How long the channel is, how well it is "taping" and its slope often give some pretty good clues to what might be coming next.
__________________
Re: Re: Extreme thinking
Quote from Spydertrader:
One could easily backtest this 'observation' over a sufficient period of time in an effort to determine how accurately your 'observations' match reality. In this fashion, you could then judge what percentage of the time your 'observations' matched reality compared to when it did not. You could then use money management techniques to perhaps create a profitable system based on these back tests. Whoa. See how easy it is to head off the reservation and back into the casino?
Quote from Bearbelly:
I am beginning to notice certain things about channels that have some "predictive" powers if I am permitted to use that word. How long the channel is, how well it is "taping" and its slope often give some pretty good clues to what might be coming next.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
If your line was one setting thicker or if your hand was off by a fraction of
a milimeter in drawing the line it would have touched. Isn't that a little too
subjective, especially since the line a few bars back never technically touched
the line either?
Not knitpicking but that bar came within a hair of the trend line and I cannot
see that as a FTT but a bounce off of the line.
Maybe it is just 2 different views
Quote from Spydertrader:
On my chart, the bar just missed the trend line. See attached.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
After that the tape was broken. What made you decide to wait?
Quote from ivob:
Of course it's still an FTT for the wider channel. Maybe just a detail but your chart suggests an FTT for the two channels but IMO that's not the case.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from optioncoach:
Not knitpicking but that bar came within a hair of the trend line and I cannot see that as a FTT but a bounce off of the line.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from optioncoach:
If your line was one setting thicker or if your hand was off by a fraction of a milimeter in drawing the line it would have touched. Isn't that a little too subjective, especially since the line a few bars back never technically touched the line either?
Not knitpicking but that bar came within a hair of the trend line and I cannot see that as a FTT but a bounce off of the line.
Maybe it is just 2 different views
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from optionpro007:
My question is, one it is decided to use a steeper channel, do we just forget about the original ?
Quote from optionpro007:
And last question, Spyder you mentioned yesterday that once an RTL has been breached the channel is kaputz, finished, termine. Do you mean both TLs or just the RTL ?
__________________
There are many situations where the drawing of the trendline will make a
difference in the official title of the setup. As Spyder said it is a signal of
change. My software is not that accurate with trendlines or parallel lines
unless I am zoomed in. Using the volume is the key. Either way the bar in
question was a reversal on increasing volume in the proximity of a LTL.
Today I saw the YM lead the ES and lag the ES on BO's. There were several
situation where the YM looked to be starting a up move but the delta was staying
negative. I'm monitoring a 2 min ES at the same time as the YM to hopefully
learn how they work together. At this point I don't understand the YM leading
idea. So far they both seem to have equal pros and cons. If someone could
enlighten me it would be nice. Maybe it's the volume we watch on the YM rather
than whether price is breaking a trendline or pivot before the ES.
Quote from ticktrade:
... Maybe it's the volume we watch on the YM rather than whether price is breaking a trendline or pivot before the ES.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Yes, I was just looking for the finest resolution of what I was seeing which
was a trendline bounce off /#3
point. I agree that by whatever title it is confirmed as a directional change, I
just wanted to confirm my current understanding of what is or isn't a FTT.
It was an honest ? with no malintent
Quote from Spydertrader:
However you wish to view it (FTT or bounce off the Left Trend Line) only matters at the most Coarse Resolution Levels. As we move to Medium and Fine Level Resolutions, both the FTT and LTL bounce produce signals of change. Irrespective of what we 'call' it, we still see a B2B gaussian Shift as Price Breaks the red Down Channel. Besides (whatever it is), at the Forest Level Resolution, doesn't it still form a Point Three of the Olive Colored Channel?
- Spydertrader
Quote from nkhoi:
yes, I monitor YM vol closely. You see the pattern on YM vol first before you see it on ES.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
IBy time the 12:10 and 12:15 bars formed, I had already experienced decreasing black volume and felt I had left one flaw (the dip) and moved into another - an HVS.
- Spydertrader
.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from optioncoach:
If your line was one setting thicker or if your hand was off by a fraction of a milimeter in drawing the line it would have touched. Isn't that a little too subjective, especially since the line a few bars back never technically touched the line either?
Not knitpicking but that bar came within a hair of the trend line and I cannot see that as a FTT but a bounce off of the line.
Maybe it is just 2 different views
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
However you wish to view it (FTT or bounce off the Left Trend Line) only matters at the most Coarse Resolution Levels. As we move to Medium and Fine Level Resolutions, both the FTT and LTL bounce produce signals of change. Irrespective of what we 'call' it, we still see a B2B gaussian Shift as Price Breaks the red Down Channel. Besides (whatever it is), at the Forest Level Resolution, doesn't it still form a Point Three of the Olive Colored Channel?
- Spydertrader
__________________
Rod
"My destiny will NOT be denied. His will be done." - Patton
Re: Re: Extreme thinking
Quote from Spydertrader:
I'm confident many 'systems' exist which attempt to calculate / estimate / predict with varying degrees of accuracy the next day's opening price based on today's price action. Such systems are beyond the scope of this Journal.
Since one would have been short yesterday headed into the close, holding overnight into this morning's gap up would have created a situation where one would have returned much of yesterday's profits back to the market. No. This does not make sense to me.
One could easily backtest this 'observation' over a sufficient period of time in an effort to determine how accurately your 'observations' match reality. In this fashion, you could then judge what percentage of the time your 'observations' matched reality compared to when it did not. You could then use money management techniques to perhaps create a profitable system based on these back tests. Whoa. See how easy it is to head off the reservation and back into the casino?
Possibly.
Probably, but definitely not a game I wish to play.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
As I said before it may be semantics or different viewpoints but to me a
failure to traverse is a failure to traverse the channel. Coming within a
hair of a human-drawn trendline is not, in my humble opinion, a FTT as I have
seen it defined and I think was the cause for the original question. Not every
bar touches the channel as it oscillates in between the trendlines and maintains
the integrity of the channel because of numerous factors (width of space between
bars, tick size in ES, thickness of line drawn, etc....).
It makes perfect sense as a Point 3 on the other channel combined with a bounce
off of the trendline in question which leads to 2 confirming signals of a
reversal in price and buy signal. Seeing it as a Point #3 seems stronger for an
entry.
The reason I make this point is to avoid questioning every line that is a hair
close in the realm of FTTs as opposed to seeing the action of the price at a
trendline.
So as Spyder said the final resolution is all that matters which is a buy
signal. However how you define it may lead to confusion in other scenarios.
Quote from ivob:
Certain software allows you can snap the lines to the high, low open or close of a bar. This is very precise. If you actually do that in this case you see it was an FTT.
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from optioncoach:
As I said before it may be semantics or different viewpoints but to me a failure to traverse is a failure to traverse the channel. Coming within a hair of a human-drawn trendline is not, in my humble opinion, a FTT as I have seen it defined and I think was the cause for the original question. Not every bar touches the channel as it oscillates in between the trendlines and maintains the integrity of the channel because of numerous factors (width of space between bars, tick size in ES, thickness of line drawn, etc....).
It makes perfect sense as a Point 3 on the other channel combined with a bounce off of the trendline in question which leads to 2 confirming signals of a reversal in price and buy signal. Seeing it as a Point #3 seems stronger for an entry.
The reason I make this point is to avoid questioning every line that is a hair close in the realm of FTTs as opposed to seeing the action of the price at a trendline.
So as Spyder said the final resolution is all that matters which is a buy signal. However how you define it may lead to confusion in other scenarios.
When using this method, I understand that someone would reverse, hold, or exit depending upon whether one sees a FTT, BO, or FBO. With that being said, does anyone use a hard stop loss, or do you just continue to hold until you see one of the end effects? It would appear that without a stop loss that some trades might go far against you before action would take place.
From my experience of anticipating the FTT before it fully forms is that, by
the time I am in and realize that the FTT is a "WTF" half the time I can get out
for a .25 profit the other half I get out at my initial entry price. And I
assume, with more practice and access to finer tools, I'll probably even get a
better price when I first enter and also be able to identify sooner than I do
now, if the FTT is legit or not. No need for hard stop as far as I can tell.
Quote from jbob:
When using this method, I understand that someone would reverse, hold, or exit depending upon whether one sees a FTT, BO, or FBO. With that being said, does anyone use a hard stop loss, or do you just continue to hold until you see one of the end effects? It would appear that without a stop loss that some trades might go far against you before action would take place.
9:30 Open
9:35 Down Tape
9:40 FTT Volume R2B
9:45 FBO ....Enter Short@ 1422.25
9:50 Hold Volume R2 It was 1,2,3 channel Down
9:55 Hold Volume R2
10:00 Hold Volume R2
10:05 Hold Volume R2
10:10 Hold Volume R2R Close of this bar is @ 1415.00 P/L +7.25
If one decide to take Profit.....................
Ye Freaking Ha...
I was stopped out of the first small Tape Channel up but it took the point 3
down elevator at 1422.75 (June) with the piped in music blaring Ride Sally Ride
all the way down to the breakout of the interior down channel of the major down
dominant channel at 1415... with a few minor scale outs along the way each time
the NYSE Tick dropped thru the floor...
Many times when i needed action i kept clicking my HOLD button which
pacified my need to do something...
I Channel Therefore I Am...
cj...
HAVE STOP WILL TRADE
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
We also have a major HOURLY up channel that would be breached to the
downside if we close hourly below 1410...
or strong up side if we hold it and close with a solid hourly volume bar up...
with a dominant up channel...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
LOL I also got the short signal at 1422 (by the time I got in) and covered at
1416.25 a little early but not complaining.
Also caught some of the Point #3 move off of new upward channel that was created
after the above mentioned move was over at around 1416.50 and covered at
1417.50.
Looks like we have a new breakout at 1417.75...
Quote from EdgeHunter:
Ye Freaking Ha...
I was stopped out of the first small Tape Channel up but it took the point 3 down elevator at 1422.75 (June) with the piped in music blaring Ride Sally Ride all the way down to the breakout of the interior down channel of the major down dominant channel at 1415... with a few minor scale outs along the way each time the NYSE Tick dropped thru the floor...
Many times when i needed action i kept clicking my HOLD button which pacified my need to do something...
I Channel Therefore I Am...
cj...
HAVE STOP
Quote from optioncoach:
LOL I also got the short signal at 1422 (by the time I got in) and covered at 1416.25 a little early but not complaining.
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Pic of the Hourly up Channel... at 8:50am PST...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
My chart for this morning, got the first and second FTT right.
No problems today taking points out of the market.
My bias is still up (until the next FTT) because we see price going down in the
last hour on decreasing volume. If I understand well this does not happen in a
down channel because in a down channel we need increasing red volume.
regards,
Ivo
Actually we are up over the last hour since 11:30 on decreasing volume...
My ES chart till noon.....
Quote from optioncoach:
Actually we are up over the last hour since 11:30 on decreasing volume...
Quote from Mr_Black:
My ES chart till noon.....
We are undulating higher since the 10:30 AM low and a sharp move lower on
strong volume from this currnet tree channel which started at that 10:30 AM low
could present a real nice short tree entry which I am gonna watch closely....
uh oh it could be happening as we speak perhaps, 20 EMA at 1418.50 providing
support but if we move below it on volume, look out belowwwwww
Quote from ivob:
That last FTT I did not consider an FTT. Because we had a breakout IMO we should be looking for point 2 and a point 3.
regards,
IVo
Quote from optioncoach:
We are undulating higher since the 10:30 AM low and a sharp move lower on strong volume from this currnet tree channel which started at that 10:30 AM low could present a real nice short tree entry which I am gonna watch closely....
uh oh it could be happening as we speak perhaps, 20 EMA at 1418.50 providing support but if we move below it on volume, look out belowwwwww
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from EdgeHunter:
plus we are breaking an hourly up channel check my post back a few...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from Mr_Black:
May be you are right....I consider this for FTT followed by FBO ...
I paper traded the breakout and went short at 1418.75 since I was forcing
myself to stop for the day (i.e. just papertrading the rest of the day). Wanted
to run to lunch so I covered at around 1417.25 and then went for lunch. Came
back and saw it at 1411 LOL....
sweeet for those of you that caught it for real...
Quote from optioncoach:
uh oh it could be happening as we speak perhaps, 20 EMA at 1418.50 providing support but if we move below it on volume, look out belowwwwww
The NYSE Tick has been a pong game... unbeliveable... +600...
-600...+600...-600
finally got out of my last half at 1411...
what a ride dat was...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Are We There Yet... This is the most boring up channel i am holding in since
12:12pm PST...
doing a Friday return to +0.00 close... possibly...
wake me when we get there...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from Mr_Black:
May be you are right....I consider this for FTT followed by FBO ...
ES7H 030907
Today's attempt. Actually, was a pretty good day on paper. Please let me know
if any of you have suggestions for improvement.
Thanks.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: ES7H 030907
Quote from Lightbody:
Today's attempt. Actually, was a pretty good day on paper. Please let me know if any of you have suggestions for improvement.
Thanks.
Today's ES Chart
Today's Es Chart
Good to see more and more 'Aha!' moments occurring on a daily basis now. From
the looks of things over the last week or so, it appears the delay in STR / SQU
introduction has proven the correct course of action. For those of you still
struggling to find your way, the next week (or so) should see a few items to
help you along. For those of you who have seen confusion turn to clarity lately,
kindly post your observations for those attempting to make it over the hill. I'm
sure everyone will find your comments helpful.
Enjoy the weekend everyone.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Re: ES7H 030907
Quote from ivob:
You forgot to draw the volatility expansion lines on the green carryover channel. Also there's another steep up carryover channel that you didn't draw at all (+ it's vol expansion lines). Doing this you notice easier the FTT on the first few bars.
regards,
Ivo
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from jbob:
When using this method, I understand that someone would reverse, hold, or exit depending upon whether one sees a FTT, BO, or FBO. With that being said, does anyone use a hard stop loss, or do you just continue to hold until you see one of the end effects? It would appear that without a stop loss that some trades might go far against you before action would take place.
IVO...
Really awesome post. This is so exciting to see these type of posts of how folks
are getting it! As for Jack and his spike offset, I understand why he does it.
Part of it has to do with having some wiggle room in the trendline itself. The
other is matter of possibility. Take for example, what if you saw that there's
has never been a 5M bar with 15 points of volatility and you wanted to
incorporate this fact. Well would you could do is that at the point of entry,
you can set a stop that is 15 points away. By doing this, what you fully expect
is that within the next 5M, you do not expect to get stopped out. So for Jack
and a few others, it's an anti hyper thing but more importantly, it is a
characteristic of the actual instrument you are trading. This is the whole point
of letting the markets do the telling instead of traders doing the predicting.
The spikes on a given chart are the extreme movements. On a psychological level,
spikes can be very good at shaking people out of a trade that they may have just
put on. Given this knowledge, if you don't want to be shaken out by spikes, then
it makes sense to find the extreme spikes and place your stops outside of these
extreme so that you don't get shaken out of what is usually a perfectly good
trade... This the point of Jack's stop offsets. You are placing yourself to be
in a position not to be shaken out of the assets naturally extreme spikes... If
your offset got violated, then chances are as you have said, that something is
definitely different...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from ivob:
... One Aha moment recently I had is that you HAVE to get out when RTL is broken because something is going on. The forest is not as anticipated and you have to avoid loss and wait and let the market tell you what's going on preferably from an objective position (= no position).
regards,
Ivo
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Here's mine. My charts seem to end up looking reasonably like Spyder's, but I
really feel like I'm still struggling while doing it. And I feel a lot of stress
trying to identify FTT's in a timely fashion but without mistaking an ordinary
price fluctuation for an FTT.
Any comments or suggestions would be much appreciated. (No annotations on the
midday down channel because I was mostly busy elsewhere.)
Quote from EdgeHunter:
i agree that getting out immediately when the RTL is broken is paramount... and the only time i deviate from this is when the price bar is breaking a down RTL side at the same time there is a very PANIC HIGH NYSE Tick reading or an up RTL exactly on a very LOW PANIC NYSE Tick reading...
Quote from palinuro:
Here's mine. My charts seem to end up looking reasonably like Spyder's, but I really feel like I'm still struggling while doing it. And I feel a lot of stress trying to identify FTT's in a timely fashion but without mistaking an ordinary price fluctuation for an FTT.
Any comments or suggestions would be much appreciated. (No annotations on the midday down channel because I was mostly busy elsewhere.)
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's Es Chart
Good to see more and more 'Aha!' moments occurring on a daily basis now. From the looks of things over the last week or so, it appears the delay in STR / SQU introduction has proven the correct course of action. For those of you still struggling to find your way, the next week (or so) should see a few items to help you along. For those of you who have seen confusion turn to clarity lately, kindly post your observations for those attempting to make it over the hill. I'm sure everyone will find your comments helpful.
Enjoy the weekend everyone.
- Spydertrader
at around 15:30.
This is small chart I made to represent How the Price is moving...
Quote from Mr_Black:
This is small chart I made to represent How the Price is moving...
Quote from Tums:
Hi MB:
THanks for the chart. I can see the chart jumped 2 ticks because the bid size was larger than what was offered.
Can you further explain the significance of this event?
The DOM will momentarily show 1415/1414.50? Right?
Does the next trade foretell the hidden sentiment? I mean if there is an upside bias in the market, the next trade would naturally follow in that direction.
But the exchange receives market orders all the time, the next trade might well be a hit on bid. And the chart will appear a price drop to 1414.25?
Quote from Tums:snip. . .
Does the next trade foretell the hidden sentiment? I mean if there is an upside bias in the market, the next trade would naturally follow in that direction.
But the exchange receives market orders all the time, the next trade might well be a hit on bid. And the chart will appear a price drop to 1414.25?
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from PointOne:
Yes it was a wise decision.
I think I am reading volume a lot better now (I thought I had it down before but clearly I still have more work to do in real time).
There is just no missing the context for me any more. My Nikkei experience one day this week forced me to really look at the volume bars to see why I was fooled - the trends within trends - and it was as clear as day what was dominant at all times (long all day; I kept trying to short off FTTs) and what I misidentified as the FTTs were all tree level flaws (declining red in the larger context).
Looking at your ES chart you know by 11:30 that the long blue channel is likely just a retrace within the larger short context which continues until 14:30. Price increases again from 12:15 to 12:25 on apparently increasing black volume (on the trees level) but decreasing black (forest level - as compared to the 11:30 peak volume bar).
So you know this is a retrace (up on decreasing volume, on the Forest level) and the inevitable FTT is likely to be a Pt 3 of a bigger short channel (not shown on your chart) and an excellent short trade.
12:30 gives you the pause for the R2R and break-out down (DU -> FRV again).
14:30 then becomes a much more important FTT in this short context and indeed price does continue up to break-out from the channel Spyder decided not to draw
(If my times are slightly off its because I'm just eyeballing Spyder's chart and enjoying my Saturday with a nice Australian).
Good w/e all.
Friday's chart, cleaned up, with double-gaussians. A great chart to review if you are trying to understand channel/gaussian relationships and multiple fractals at work.
This is an fridays chart on ES compared to Advancing issues and Declining
issues on NYSE...I drown the 1,2,3 channels only and the Gaussians on ES
Volume...It is obvious how closely correlated is ES whit NYSE stocks...I am
sorry but 2 min YM chart it can not be drown using Prophet Chart stream...It
will be great to have this all together to see the market influences .....
Same Method different market.....
Quote from Mr_Black:
Same Method different market.....
Quote from Pr0crast:
Friday's chart, cleaned up, with double-gaussians. A great chart to review if you are trying to understand channel/gaussian relationships and multiple fractals at work.
Quote from ivob:
Just a few remarks.
Regards,
Ivo
Todays (Mar12th) 10:20 ES bar opens and closes at the same price. Esiganal dictates that the bar is black with higher buy vol but the bar opened low, ripped up and then all the way back down. It looks like a bearish bar to me (ie more selling vol, than buying in reality). Is there a set of rules to know how to interpret these bars correctly? I know that they all cant be black in these situations. Or it it a matter of experience to know when to interpret them a certain way?
Mak,
I appreciate you posting the Volitility Potential spreadsheet... that is a lot
of hard work that you have shared so kindly...
How often do you re-calibrate (if ever) the values...
thanks..
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from Rocko1:
Hey I seem to get different volumes for the FX rates associated with different vendors. How do you know if the volume data's reliable?
This is EUR/USD trade I made for p/l + 70 pips I was using daily fractal.....
Quote from EdgeHunter:
Mak,
I appreciate you posting the Volitility Potential spreadsheet... that is a lot of hard work that you have shared so kindly...
How often do you re-calibrate (if ever) the values...
thanks..
cj...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Here my chart for this morning.
Today is one of those days where I lost a lot (paper)trading. The good thing is
I did catch the blue pt 3 after breakout from Friday's channel. I did not expect
an FTT quickly after that so left at RTL with few ticks loss (after having been
in black about 4 points..). Then after breakout tried to catch a pt 3 several
times. This caused loss of several points quickly. I ended up with the annotated
pt3 which was also wrong. Then there's the last FTT which seems to be working
out.
It is the green channel that I was drawing wrong?
In general when I screw up it's on 1 or 2 moves but enough to not be able to be
profitable that day. Comments are welcome.
regards,
Ivo
Volume is pathetic so far today. I am getting chopped up too. I am really
focusing on the 1 minute EM for trades but this is not part of our system.
Even FTT's and BO's are on low volume.
Are you sure you are using right contract. June?
Quote from 8833broc:
Volume is pathetic so far today. I am getting chopped up too. I am really focusing on the 1 minute EM for trades but this is not part of our system.
Even FTT's and BO's are on low volume.
I'm on the March contract. I ussually wait till a day prior to rollover to
change contracts. Another bias or a maybe bad habit thath I have is to NOT trade
on the rollover day.
Maybe I should be on the June contract. I will monitor June.
thanks
Quote from Mr_Black:
There is no volume data for forex I made a indicator that shows only price range (High-Low) instead of Volume.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Todays (Mar12th) 10:20 ES bar opens and closes at the same price. Esiganal dictates that the bar is black with higher buy vol but the bar opened low, ripped up and then all the way back down. It looks like a bearish bar to me (ie more selling vol, than buying in reality). Is there a set of rules to know how to interpret these bars correctly? I know that they all cant be black in these situations. Or it it a matter of experience to know when to interpret them a certain way?
Quote from 8833broc:
Maybe I should be on the June contract. I will monitor June.
__________________
Quote from ivob:
Here my chart for this morning.
Today is one of those days where I lost a lot (paper)trading. The good thing is I did catch the blue pt 3 after breakout from Friday's channel. I did not expect an FTT quickly after that so left at RTL with few ticks loss (after having been in black about 4 points..). Then after breakout tried to catch a pt 3 several times. This caused loss of several points quickly. I ended up with the annotated pt3 which was also wrong. Then there's the last FTT which seems to be working out.
It is the green channel that I was drawing wrong?
In general when I screw up it's on 1 or 2 moves but enough to not be able to be profitable that day. Comments are welcome.
regards,
Ivo
Review
Quote from FilterTip:
Hope this is of help..
__________________
Quote from FilterTip:
Attachment: es 5 min 12.03.7.png
FilterTip
Quote from nkhoi:
since vol is crucial and there is no vol in forex, could you show how you do it
lesson learned - do not trade this framework on back contract month
Quote from nkhoi:
same chart here, are you ftip from talkstox?
Quote from FilterTip:
Ivo.
I would say your first green channel is not correct.
You've used 2 bars which is a tape.
There is a point 1.2.3 carry over (see attached) from Friday which is first red channel on my chart.
This gives us the Bo down move.
Vol then shows us the carry through to what becomes the low and an FTT.
Incre vol then guides us to the move up.
An FTT of that up channel (grey on my chart) keeps us short with the lateral giving us a point 3 of down (2nd red channel).
Forest Vol is decreasing and an FTT of the 2nd down channel gives us the point 3 for the Yellow channle.
Forest B2 B shows us this last move on chart is a NOn Dom travers of Yellow.
Hope this is of help..
FilterTip
Re: Review
Quote from Spydertrader:
Nice to see the time you spent reviewing has helped you. Very nice chart. Keep up the great work.
- Spydertrader
Quote from ivob:
[B]Thx filter. I see I am "inventing" carryover channels. That green channel is not okay, your red channel is better.
I did see today's opening as a Breakout from an up channel of last Friday. That worked out just like your solution. BTW you did not draw the vol expansion lines for the red channel.
regards,
Ivo
My ES chart so far.....
works better in the FX futures than the spot...
Quote from nkhoi:
since vol is crucial and there is no vol in forex, could you show how you do it
Nice little aha moment again, took a short of the ES at 15:45 from 1422.25
based on a ym gaussian (14:44). Then i spent bar by bar making sure the
gaussians still were in line. They were. Then, ES gives a me what I think to be
a favorable gaussian at 15:00 (lower lows higher red vol). I keep analyzing
gaussians and everything seems to keep saying continue. Its currently 3:35 and
the ES is at 1418.50 and falling. I am happy with my patience and bar by bar
analysis.
Edit-- Covered at 1417.50 (+4.75) as this lined up with both RTL's on ES and YM
and price looked to FBO. Maybe I should have held until gaussians completely
changed but this was a good trade nonetheless
Today's attempt
Another nice day for the JH method. Thanks Spyder, Jack, Mak, and crew.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Today's ES Chart
Today's ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Sorry, short at 14:45. Little typo
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Nice little aha moment again, took a short of the ES at 15:45 from 1422.25 based on a ym gaussian (14:44). Then i spent bar by bar making sure the gaussians still were in line. They were. Then, ES gives a me what I think to be a favorable gaussian at 15:00 (lower lows higher red vol). I keep analyzing gaussians and everything seems to keep saying continue. Its currently 3:35 and the ES is at 1418.50 and falling. I am happy with my patience and bar by bar analysis.
Edit-- Covered at 1417.50 (+4.75) as this lined up with both RTL's on ES and YM and price looked to FBO. Maybe I should have held until gaussians completely changed but this was a good trade nonetheless
ES 12 Mar 07
Finding it difficult to see the pt 3's in a timely manner. Frequently find
myself entering during HVS or CCC or miss the boat completely.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Nice little aha moment again, took a short of the ES at 15:45 from 1422.25 based on a ym gaussian (14:44).
Once I got into the trade, I just monitored, bar by bar, the gaussians of my
new down channel. I just held and held b/c it appeared that the dominating vol
was down vol. I figured, until that changes, I shouldnt take action (ie cover my
short). I did take action when price went to both RTL on both ES and YM and it
looked as if we were just going to FBO and so I covered.
Quote from KK70:
Steve, great trade! What helped you decide @ 14:45 that this was going to turn out short and not into an HVS? Thanks.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
........I just held and held b/c it appeared that the dominating vol was down vol..........
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
I like it! As long as things keep going along as expected, no need to worry.
When it changes, I'm outtie
Quote from EdgeHunter:
Nice to see you you are clicking on the HOLD button to...
cj...
Hi all,
I only discovered this thread around the beginning of the year and have spent
the last 2 months studying the background material. Quite a haul! Also, I've
read through Jan. 15, 2007 in this thread and am ready to start real-time
practice of locating the FTT's using only ES price and volume.
The problem is that I'm about 2 months behind the rest of the class. I don't
want to start reading about using the YM until I've put in the recommended 20
days (minimum) drawing channels and locating FTT's so I guess for the next month
or so, I'll just watch the mkt like you guys did in January and try to gradually
catch up over the coming months.
I've got 2 questions:
1. What is the best way to display PRV in TradeStation? I remember a post that
talked about calculating it manually every 30 seconds and I have the "stacked
volume" indicator that was talked about in this thread but I'm wondering if
there's a way to display it automatically in TS. I think the indicator MAK uses
is for esignal right?
2. Is there a way to get the volume bars on TS to display different colors based
on whether the 5min bar is an up bar vs. a down bar? I created a simple paint
bar in TS to paint the up price bars black and the down price bars red but don't
know how to do it for the volume bars.
Thanks.
Quote from flier6:
Hi all,
I've got 2 questions:
1. What is the best way to display PRV in TradeStation? I remember a post that talked about calculating it manually every 30 seconds and I have the "stacked volume" indicator that was talked about in this thread but I'm wondering if there's a way to display it automatically in TS. I think the indicator MAK uses is for esignal right?
2. Is there a way to get the volume bars on TS to display different colors based on whether the 5min bar is an up bar vs. a down bar? I created a simple paint bar in TS to paint the up price bars black and the down price bars red but don't know how to do it for the volume bars.
Thanks.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
I rock at hindsight trading.
Attached is today's chart with thought process debrief for each trade. Please
critique!
It would be awesome if more people did this type of thing so we could compare
notes.
NOTE: this is forest reversal-only trading, while keeping a close eye on the
trees for clues.
Quote from Pr0crast:
I rock at hindsight trading.
Attached is today's chart with thought process debrief for each trade. Please critique!
It would be awesome if more people did this type of thing so we could compare notes.
NOTE: this is forest reversal-only trading, while keeping a close eye on the trees for clues.
Nice job on the debrief. Thanks for sharing. I found it extremely helpful
when Spyder did this also. Kind of hoped it would be more than a one day wonder.
I saw pretty much the same setups develop today however I used a 2min chart for
the first down channel and exited on the big price and volume reversal bar at
7am(pst). The buy-sell volume was showing a shift at that point also. I did do a
couple of my old habits in thinking it was a gap down, wishful thinking trend
day down, and tried a couple shorts on the following up channel. Took small
losses and came to my senses in time to get it back on the right side of the
market. Got some more on a short after the rtl break and weak retrace entry.
Again using the 2 min chart and market delta to confirm entry. I've been
tracking both the YM and ES on a 2min fractal. Still find myself using the ES
more for that resolution. Maybe because the delta is easier to read on the ES
than the YM. I usually wait if they aren't in agreement. Only traded the AM with
one quick trade on the break up this afternoon but had to exit too soon due to
work. The methods taught in this thread are becoming clearer. The forest level
is profitable. I can only imagine what finer resolution will bring after
sufficient practice. I am continually amazed how well the 1-2-3 pattern works on
either the 2 or 5 min fractal when incorporating volume. Even when I miss a FTT
getting a confirmed BO of RTL and entering on a weak retrace in the 2 min
fractal has worked well.
Quote from Pr0crast:
I rock at hindsight trading.
Attached is today's chart with thought process debrief for each trade. Please critique!
It would be awesome if more people did this type of thing so we could compare notes.
NOTE: this is forest reversal-only trading, while keeping a close eye on the trees for clues.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Flier,
It is STRONGLY recommended that you avoid using any kind of PRV tool to start. Just use an egg timer or whatever. Calculate in your head, it really is quite easy and you'll learn so much more. Spyder has said this time and again.
In TS you should be able to color volume bars by adjusting the properites for the volume pane. It's been awhile since I used TS, but I think you can just right-click on the volume pane, select properties or whatever they call it, and find the tab to adjust the colors. I hope this is correct, I know I had done it quite easily.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/03/12/1_min_ftt.png
This is the 2 min chart I was using this morning. The 3rd pane, green and red
histogram is the market delta(buy-sell vol). In the first 2 channels it gave
several clues as to what might happen. The last 2 bars in the first green
channel show a lack of conviction in buyers in both the volume and delta.
The first up bar in the first red down channel shows increasing volume but the
buyers didn't have much punch compared to the increase in volume and the
following bar shows the sellers getting control again creating point 3.
The reversal bar at 7 am shows the sellers starting to get overpowered. Don't
know how long it will last but something to take note of and take some profits.
I'm sure the tools to come during the remainder of the year will replace what
I'm using now but this has been helping me see whats going on during the 5 min
bars. I can't watch all the time so I need these snapshots to get a feel for
things.
Great job, but I believe it is +5 points net, not +6.
Nice Forrest explanations.
Quote from Pr0crast:
I rock at hindsight trading.
Attached is today's chart with thought process debrief for each trade. Please critique!
It would be awesome if more people did this type of thing so we could compare notes.
NOTE: this is forest reversal-only trading, while keeping a close eye on the trees for clues.
+5, right you are.
Quote from flier6:
I wish it were that simple. You can choose which color to display the volume bars in and their thickness but I need to code a special indicator and I'm not a good coder. I searched the TS forum but couldn't find what I needed.
Thanks for your help.
EUR/USD .....FTT entry FBO exit P/L +6 pips
im at a small firm with no charting so i use about 4 alternate sights and am constantly going back and forth,whatever firm you're using,can you trade off the chart page,any recommendations,i trade spus ,dow,oil and sometimes gold and bonds,mostly spus and oil
Quote from Mr_Black:
EUR/USD .....FTT entry FBO exit P/L +6 pips
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
My ES chart for 1'st hour ......
Thank's Mak....
Thanks JD. Works like a charm.
My chart for this morning. Trading was not very easy because of the quick
changes. I was anticipating a short the whole time and it was obvious it was
going to happen but the question was when... We had increasing price but volume
decreasing so that was the clue we were in a down channel but we needed
increasing red for price to really go down. This happened at around 11:16 IMO.
Also my bias for the day was down because of the gap but then I should have
looked better at the first few bars. There was vol expansion (carryover channel)
and the bars on YM as well as ES ended far away from RTL from carryover channel
(ES was even a green one).
regards,
Ivo
I was able to catch another 10 pips profit from this BO.....
Hope you all took that pt. 3 short. yeeha
Ye Freaking Ha...
after being stopped out on RTL's channels 6 times to my one minor meger
early morning win...
i have now taken the elevator down at 1413 to 1409 low on the first scale out...
1408 on the second scale out and holding for the break of the RTL on this drop
for my last unit...
account went from negative to postive on this one drop... just by holding and
watching Mak's Volitility Potentials...
Once you see these large vol bars you have to nail your hands to your chair on
at least one unit and let it ride sally ride...
anybody want to buy my HOLD button..
cj...
HAVE STOP WILL TRADE
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
My hold button is working rather well today too
This is charts of Advancing and Declining issues on NYSE....
Bailed on 3/4 of last unit at 1404... as usual no idea it would go this far
except the HUGE vol bars...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Bailed on of last unit at 1405... as usual no idea it would go this far
except the HUGE vol bars...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from Pr0crast:
My hold button is working rather well today too
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
And this is ES ,$ADV ,$DECL....
Jack/Spyder/Mak,
Regarding ProCrast's debrief of Mar. 12th, I have a question concerning the Part
D Long trade. I'm sure we'll all be seeing this same exact situation many, many
times again, so I wanted to ask:
If you went Long at the BO of the RTL or even earlier at the FTT, and then price
comes back into the red, down channel, as it did, would you, or did you, quickly
reverse to Short?
Quote from Vista:
Jack/Spyder/Mak,
Regarding ProCrast's debrief of Mar. 12th, I have a question concerning the Part D Long trade. I'm sure we'll all be seeing this same exact situation many, many times again, so I wanted to ask:
If you went Long at the BO of the RTL or even earlier at the FTT, and then price comes back into the red, down channel, as it did, would you, or did you, quickly reverse to Short?
Wheeeeeee
Resolution Levels
Quote from Vista:
If you went Long at the BO of the RTL or even earlier at the FTT, and then price comes back into the red, down channel, as it did, would you, or did you, quickly reverse to Short?
__________________
Quote from Pr0crast:
Wheeeeeee
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
If you hold through 4 point countermoves your a braver man than I.
p.s. and a richer one too.
Hmmmm What a day I hit another 15 pips profit .....
Quote from Bearbelly:
If you hold through 4 point countermoves your a braver man than I.
p.s. and a richer one too.
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from EdgeHunter:
A most auspicious picture of my HOLD button - which upon being pressed plays the classic: Ride of the Valkirye during steep declines and Pacabell Cannon D during Chop...
cj...
That is living the dream.
Quote from EdgeHunter:
A most auspicious picture of my HOLD button - which upon being pressed plays the classic: Ride of the Valkirye during steep declines and Pacabell Cannon D during Chop...
cj...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
One more day charting channels.......
Quote from Pr0crast:
My hold button is working rather well today too
Again, like a few days back... Today we had a break of the Hourly - Daily
Up Trend Channel...
I think its important to watch these since i have now seen 4 to 5 large sell
offs / up moves on breaks of up or down Hourly - Daily channels using the 5 min
channels to position into the break...
This morning we broke the Daily - Hourly UpChannel with a gap down thru it...
and a weak retrace...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
After more than 2 months of studying the background material and studying the
first half of January (of this thread), here's my first day of watching for
FTT's using only ES price and volume.
Have a good laugh.
Any comments or advice is welcome.
No laughs flier, that looks like a very good effort.
Today's ES Chart
Helluva' Day!
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
Today's YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from flier6:
Any comments or advice is welcome.
__________________
Thanks for the encouragement guys.
Would this be closer to how I should be annotating volume?
Todays pic as promised.
and corresponding log...
follow along much better except this one, I had B2B then big red bar with low
vol, I though 'flaw' = ignore, change is still underway, hmm..got to debrief
this one.
Whats the best java/web based futures charts that allow for drawing channels and allows you to expand the chart. Dont care about the cost. Reason being the firewall at work wont allow vendors such as IQ feed to connect to quotetracker for example.. Looking for an alternative. I took a look at prophet but I'm not likeing what I'm seeing...
tradestation?
Quote from ang_99:
Whats the best java/web based futures charts that allow for drawing channels and allows you to expand the chart. Dont care about the cost. Reason being the firewall at work wont allow vendors such as IQ feed to connect to quotetracker for example.. Looking for an alternative. I took a look at prophet but I'm not likeing what I'm seeing...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from nkhoi:
follow along much better except this one, I had B2B then big red bar with low vol, I though 'flaw' = ignore, change is still underway, hmm..got to debrief this one.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
See if this view helps ....
Note the Channels. Note the gaussians and how the FTT signals the retrace then the reversal on the both price and Volume.
- Spydertrader
..
Quote from makosgu:
Agreed! Prophet is garbage! I sent in a bug fix several times over the course of a year. It was never fixed. On top of that, they could not render the current bar properly. Everything else for the platform was pretty good and I had the full tilt subscription. I cut them loose when they said they declined to fix the render issue...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from EdgeHunter:
Mak,
who did you go with... ?
cj...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Helluva' Day!
- Spydertrader
Quote from makosgu:
IQFEED and IB have always been my work horse as far as data has been concerned. Prophet was for remote stuff and equities since I was not too concerned about immediate data. The move to futures pushed IQFEED/IB. I've had Tradestation for play and now I have Esignal for play. I also have ensign but I've been trying to cut them for weeks to no avail. Always a bloody answering machine. Then there are the accounts but none of those except IB are worth mentioning. Too much redundancy now that I see this post. Also EFX for forex. Again, for purposes of esignal is OK. For goodies, IQFEED/IB works well for me...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
FWIW, I traded yesterday and today for real (one lots).
Results:
Monday 5Wins, 4Losses for 7.25 points less commissions.
Tuesday (today) 5 wins; 3 losses for 9.5 points.
Thanks Jack, Spyder, et al. This is great stuff. And I think I suck at it
currently. Can't wait to learn and use the additional tools as they are taught.
Doug
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
Why did you not mark the 10:30 bar as an FTT? To me it looked like, on ES and also on YM.
__________________
Outstanding Day
Quote from dougcs:
Monday 5Wins, 4Losses for 7.25 points less commissions.
Tuesday (today) 5 wins; 3 losses for 9.5 points.
__________________
Quote from dougcs:
FWIW, I traded yesterday and today for real (one lots).
Results:
Monday 5Wins, 4Losses for 7.25 points less commissions.
Tuesday (today) 5 wins; 3 losses for 9.5 points.
Thanks Jack, Spyder, et al. This is great stuff. And I think I suck at it currently. Can't wait to learn and use the additional tools as they are taught.
Doug
I know it's off topic but along the lines of software. I had esignal and now
use Investor /RT with IQfeed.
http://linnsoft.com/
The programmer there Chad is very sharp and willing to add indicators to new
releases which they do frequently. I have made a couple request with the volume
breakdown indicator and he quickly added them to the indicator list. I'd be
interested to see what he could do with some feedback from MAK.
Back to the topic. Spyder I don't understand where all the bashers of this
method are coming from. I've been busy at work the last couple days and my
trading time has been limited but I'm finding it easier by the day to spot
things and enter on the right side of the market consistently. This is a new
thing in my trading and I can hardly wait for the months to come.
Quote from ticktrade:
Back to the topic.
__________________
Quote from nkhoi:
thank, I tend to let down my guard at lunch time
Re: Outstanding Day
Quote from Spydertrader:
Outstanding. Of course you do realize, since so many claim this 'system' doesn't work, you'll have to give all that money back.
Again, nicely done.
- Spydertrader
All I can say is that the 10:05 bar cost me 3 points becuase of "waiting" for
RTL BO of the down channel.
I have no idea how you guys are able to trade forest only setups but this is the
most fun I have had since I started trading....
Mak must be having a field day....
BY 10:03 AM I had 7 trades
4 winners (AVG Win = 1.375)
3 losers (AVG Loss = .75)
Gross Profit = 3.25 Points
Sadly this number understates what I should have done. My X-trader suffered a
few hiccups and was lagging my charting (which was correct) so I first could not
go short on a breakout because X was not mathcing the correct quotes (i.e. I
would not have gotten filled) and I bailed on the last two winners early because
I had no idea where it would let me out or if it was showing right quotes or
not.
The last one was the most painful since I went short on a BO at 10:01 AM at
1390.50 after missing the short at 9:50 AM at around 1395 or so waiting for my
glitch to unglitch. So I missed out on about 5 points before I could jump in
short but the tape looked like it was done and reversing so I covered the
finally entered short at 1389.50 for 1.00. Should have been about 5 - 6 points
if I could have gotten in at 1395 instead of 1390 but computer glitches happen.
(this is rare and not common for X-trader thank God).
Anyway just thought I would share some nice trades and some hardware
frustration.
gaussians
__________________
hi guys, just a quick question regarding FTT. I know how to spot for FTT as
well as the definition of it, but there's just one part that's really confusing
me.
Below is a chart i'm going to use as an example. this is a chart drew by Jack
Hershey himself in the Trendlines thread:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1078337
I understand why B is a FTT, because the dominant traverse failed to reach the
left trendline. And this is the part that's confusing me.... in that up channel,
it seem none of the traverses within t hat up channel actually touched the left
trendline when it was traversing up... so how come none of those are FTT? and if
we're doing this in real time, how do you distinguish these and the FTT
annotated as point B... since this point B is the one that actually worked out
since the trend chnages at thhis particular point.
Same goes for the downtrend channel in on that chart. There is a candlestick
that almost touched the left channel (kinda in the middle of the downtrending
channel) but failed to do so, why isn't this one a FTT but the one followed
after is? and if you're drawing this live, what about the area where all those
red candles are congregated? especially the one where it is followed by a small
green candle? none of those touched the left bottom channel line. so are these
all FTT as well?
Would really appreciate it if anyone could clarify this part for me.
[i
Anyway just thought I would share some nice trades and some hardware frustration. [/B]
We are still in an Hourly Down Channel...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
For me I think X-trader was just glitching up and I could just re-boot and it
would be fine. I was able to jump in and go short at 11:05 AM BAR but it was
still glitching so I bailed at .50 profit as it moved another 1.50 in my favor
lol. I will just let it be for the rest of the day. So 3.75 for the day.
As for you, sometimes the continuous java streams from IB just overload things
for a moment and unfortunately the additional hitting of buttons just lock
things up. Best bet is to give it a second or two to see if it stops the loop it
is in or close other non-IB windows to free up memory.
I notice some software platform will go haywire when it is fast market. I just laught at my friend who use jtrade because I know it will get stuck (it was). I have no such probl using OpenEcry platform.
Quote from chiefraven:
Would really appreciate it if anyone could clarify this part for me.
__________________
Chart for this morning.
Did not have too many problems to take 6 point or so out of the market but could
have been much more. Still have problems with the start of the day. Obviously it
was up because we ended with an FTT yesterday that was still intact. However,
quite quickly we went south (taped FTT on ES that I didn't see or believe and at
the same time YM had FBO on carryover channel). I missed all that until the next
FTT.
Then I missed the 10:40 FTT quickly followed by FBO and another FTT and lost
some points there. Also because price was dancing on RTL and because of this I
started to have doubts about the channels and adjusting them. Still caught the
right down.
regards,
Ivo
Question for Spyder or Mak or anybody else who has been doing this for long
time.(Jack too of course)
What do yo do when you go to the bathroom or have to take a short break? Close
the position or put stops to get you out or stops to reverse ?
Thanks
my morning chart.
I was away from the desk, the annotation after 11:15 were in hindsight.
Did 4 trades in the morning, gross 11pts.
Family obligation cost me the major move, again. (Such as life.)
Hourly Traverse...
cj...
__________________
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I did it!!! I made another trade when I was sitting on a nice profit from earlier. I have a terrible time pulling the trigger when Im sitting on a nice gain. I told myself that I am going to take the next point three or bounce off that RTL come hell or high water so I puckered up my ahole and pulled the trigger fully expecting it to reverse immediately on me but it did just what it was supposed to do. My best day in quite awhile. I hope this is the beginning of the end of this problem I have. Im just glad it worked because if it had failed I probably would have went right back in my shell again. I feel sorry for the 401k's but Im loving this volatility.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I did it!!! I made another trade when I was sitting on a nice profit from earlier. I have a terrible time pulling the trigger when Im sitting on a nice gain. I told myself that I am going to take the next point three or bounce off that RTL come hell or high water so I puckered up my ahole and pulled the trigger fully expecting it to reverse immediately on me but it did just what it was supposed to do. My best day in quite awhile. I hope this is the beginning of the end of this problem. I feel sorry for the 401k's but Im loving this volatility.
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from EdgeHunter:
Fantastic... now you can afford kegs over sixpacks...
cj...
Hourly Channel...
We bit of a short squeeze der laddie's...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from Bearbelly:
I did it!!! My best day in quite awhile. I hope this is the beginning of the end of this problem I have.
__________________
THis was not at me but I will answer my own experience. I had 3.75 points by
11:15 Am or so and decided to stop because I always workout at lunch. SO I was
out completely and have no problem stopping when I am up to do something I
enjoy. Of course as a result I missed the FTT which lead to a breakout of about
10 points between 11:30 and 12:00 but I got out in nice weather.
somtimes it is not a bad thing to step away, especially if you already have some
profits. If 3.75 points is all I can average a day, I will not mind lol...
Quote from optionpro007:
Question for Spyder or Mak or anybody else who has been doing this for long time.(Jack too of course)
What do yo do when you go to the bathroom or have to take a short break? Close the position or put stops to get you out or stops to reverse ?
Thanks
Quote from optioncoach:
THis was not at me but I will answer my own experience. I had 3.75 points by 11:15 Am or so and decided to stop because I always workout at lunch. SO I was out completely and have no problem stopping when I am up to do something I enjoy. Of course as a result I missed the FTT which lead to a breakout of about 10 points between 11:30 and 12:00 but I got out in nice weather.
somtimes it is not a bad thing to step away, especially if you already have some profits. If 3.75 points is all I can average a day, I will not mind lol...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Hourly Down Channel RTL Break...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Mak,
what did you think of my query and spread sheet maintenence idea for your Vol /
Vol Matrix...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
This is My chart so far.....
Not a bad day, eh?
Great Day so far.....
ES 14 Mar 07
Quote from EdgeHunter:
good to know...
also i am sure it is a pain to re create by hand the Volume / Volitility Potentials Sheet...
but i think we can do that with a cross tab query in MS Access which will take the last 20 days data that has been input into a table and display it as a summed and averaged matrix just as you have it now...
then i can give you the accessDB and query and you just export the days 5 minute bars into excel each day with a formula to get the high low difference and each volume reading and then copy paste that into the Vol/Vol table and run the cross tab query and you could have the sheet updated everyday or every week or whenever without a lot of work.. just take a few minutes...
cross tab queries are tricky so i use the words 'I Think'...
something to consider down the road...
cj...
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from makosgu:
For example, there is yet another program I use called xlq by qmatix. I have ZERO affiliation with the guy but he's got excel app that interfaces with IQFEED/IB/Yahoo and other resources to stream realtime stuff.
Today's ES
Attached, please see today's ES Chart. I have annotated a few extra FBO's
combined with their respect FTT's on this chart, but tried to maintain the
Forest Level View as I did yesterday.
Hope everyone had a great day.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
The Ym Chart for today
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from WGTrader:
MAK,
FYI I have been using xlq since 2002 (when Leo offered lifetime licenses). It's a great app and I've built numerous Excel models based on the xlq formulas. Let me know if I can help out.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from Bearbelly:
I did it!!! I made another trade when I was sitting on a nice profit from earlier. I have a terrible time pulling the trigger when Im sitting on a nice gain. I told myself that I am going to take the next point three or bounce off that RTL come hell or high water so I puckered up my ahole and pulled the trigger fully expecting it to reverse immediately on me but it did just what it was supposed to do. My best day in quite awhile. I hope this is the beginning of the end of this problem I have. Im just glad it worked because if it had failed I probably would have went right back in my shell again. I feel sorry for the 401k's but Im loving this volatility.
fwiw, I again traded for real, one lot, today with these results:
7 Win
3 Losses
Net points: 10.25 less commissions.
S. it is scary but my chart and yours looked too much alike today.
Doug
ps-I likely won't post my results daily, but I've seen some anti Jack threads
recently, and thought posting occasional real results would be beneficial and
balance some of the negative comments.
Quote from makosgu:
The work is minimal as I have template spreadsheets buried on various harddrives that I need to blow the dust off of. I'm pretty savvy with most things conding. The work required is minimal. My real problem is time which is usually negative for me. My weekends are busier then the work week and my days tend to begin (5 am) and end (1 am) on borrowed time. I throw up alot of posts kind of as an archive of crap I fully intend to complete. I am also extremely savvy with MSAccess and all sorts of db SQL/PLSQL programming. I like to be able to simplify things to minimal effort. For example, there is yet another program I use called xlq by qmatix. I have ZERO affiliation with the guy but he's got excel app that interfaces with IQFEED/IB/Yahoo and other resources to stream realtime stuff. It can do alot for me because it leverages off the flexibility of excel. What I am trying to do is simply boil down the vol analysis to several inputs.
-an arbitrary number of days of data (ie. 60 days)
-an arbitrary fractal (ie. 5M)
-a practical time window (ie. 9:45 am to 3:30 pm)
Providing this template would allow any user to profile whatever it is that they trade. Tools like this cut out unnecesary technologies which others may or may not have and allow for users to adjust things to their hearts delight. It'll be up soon. There will be nothing magical about the template. It will just be versatile. There is a similar one for equities that calibrates to each instrument...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Morning trades
Here is a screen shot of my Tree level trades this morning. I could not find
a suitable entry in the morning, my first entry was the FTT at 10:05 .
Columns are direction, entry time, entry price, exit price and net.
This is simming, without tracking P/L just using four buttons LONG, SHORT,
REVERSE and FLAT.
I found myself dropping to lower resolutions inadvertantly (3rd and 4th trades).
I kept reminding myself to think change/no-change and that really helped me stay
at the correct resolution.
I am sure there were moments where I was in the red, but change/no-change kept
me in the trade for eventual gains.
Net without commisions is 11.75
Re: Morning trades
Quote from bi9foot:
I am sure there were moments where I was in the red, but change/no-change kept me in the trade for eventual gains.
Re: Morning trades
Quote from bi9foot:
Here is a screen shot of my Tree level trades this morning.
STOP!
Quote from Pr0crast:
Yes I have found this too in my strict forest simming... For much of the day I'm breakeven or in the red (on brief channels and low-slope channels), but since in the market all the time all the big moves are caught. Starts to actually feel like the "pool extraction" Jack talks about.
)
Re: STOP!
Quote from PointOne:
STOP right there!
If you enter/reverse very close to a point 1 or point 3 why are you in the red (for more than half a bar)?
Remember Spyder strongly recommended to us to delay SIMing until we could identify the Forest FTTs while blindfolded with our arms tied behind our backs. If you are sitting through retraces in the red then you need to go back to annotating and logging, no button pushing. (How do I know this?
. Surely I am not in the red as
price ascends from PT3, for if I was I would most definitely be on the wrong
side of the market. By "in the red" I am talking about realized profits as I
exit or reverse. Surely you can see that if a channel is weak, not very long,
and not very steep, a profit is not guaranteed on the forest trade. This is what
I am talking about. This, and watching some of our profits slowly dissipate over
the retraces is an unavoidable part of forest trading that provides clear
motivation for learning the ways of tree-trading. But nevertheless, sustaining a
small -0.5 pt loss on a weak forest trade is a small price to pay to catch the
15 PT moves of today's monster forest trades.
Re: Re: Morning trades
Quote from Pr0crast:
Yes I have found this too in my strict forest simming... For much of the day I'm breakeven or in the red (on brief channels and low-slope channels), but since in the market all the time all the big moves are caught. Starts to actually feel like the "pool extraction" Jack talks about.
Re: Re: STOP!
Quote from Pr0crast:
I think you misunderstood. In the forest trading rules, we HOLD through the nondominant retraces and our action points occur on RTLXO's and PT3's. FTTs and flaws do not enter this picture EVER,
Quote from mephistoII:
I think it is very apparent by now to all who have been following along from the onset of the journal, that the real 'secret' for attaining the final plateau will be found in the mastery of self. We are being handed the tools for the mechanics of the trade (not to mention still only honing our forest skills primarily) - but each among us must find their own way on the psychic frontier of self-control and discipline.
Re: Re: Re: STOP!
Quote from PointOne:
When you said you were in the red, I thought you meant you were in the red. My mistake.
P1
Re: Re: Re: Morning trades
Quote from ivob:
I noticed the same. The market will give it all to you but you have to be in it. (on the right side preferably :-)
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: Re: Re: Morning trades
Quote from Bearbelly:
The last few days have been pretty unusual. You have to be in to catch all the big moves alright but many days do not have big moves. The experimenting I did with in all day was pretty disasterous and I think it requires some skills that are not easily attainable. It is the final stage of this whole process. If the volatility stays like it is now the big moves will certainly take care of the mistakes but I dont expect this to last. I am entering on point threes with the intention of eventually entering on ftt's but I want to see steady sustained profits first. Maks admonition about building upon success sticks in my mind.
ivob
It has been my experience that there is at least one ideal, obvious point three
every day so I dont worry about missing one. If in doubt, sit out, is my motto.
If I can catch one a day I think I will do very well. Yesterday I got two.
Usually I just get one because as I stated yesterday I have a problem taking
another trade when Im sitting on a profit but my confidence in these trades is
growing steadily.
Hopping back anf forth
Quote from Pr0crast:
I think you misunderstood. In the forest trading rules, we HOLD through the nondominant retraces and our action points occur on RTLXO's and PT3's. FTTs and flaws do not enter this picture EVER, so whether or not I can identify forest FTTs blindfolded has absolutely nothing to do with anything but TREE trading which I assume is what you speak of
I hope that provides some added clarity to my statement.
Many of us have gotten to the point where our logging and annotations are great, but we still need practice on staying at whatever level we intend to (forest, tree, leaves, bug, etc) without inadvertently hopping back and forth. For now, I have chosen the forest, with an ever so slight discretionary sprinkle of trees. Nailing this with discipline is where the simming comes in.
anyone running mak's prv/str/squ for IB? Having trouble getting this to work, possibly because of the new build?
This is first hour chart for ES whit 3 excellent opportunities to make
at least 5 points..................
Quote from Jander:
anyone running mak's prv/str/squ for IB? Having trouble getting this to work, possibly because of the new build?
Quote from Jander:
anyone running mak's prv/str/squ for IB? Having trouble getting this to work, possibly because of the new build?
My chart for this morning.
WOW... It's so relaxing to be in the market knowing you are on the right side.
It doesn't have to be the current bar that gives you the points, it can be the
next one, doesn't matter, the market is giving money to you as long as there is
no "change signal", you're on the right side and it's moving. I don't even know
when I got in most of the time.
Very happy with my performance so far. No impatience greed or fear. Taking
action on the right moments, catching almost all FTT's. No removing and
replacing lines. Relaxed as it should be.
Just the start was a little hard IMO. At first I thought we had a breakout of
carryover channel. Then price went back in so it was an FBO immediately followed
by an FTT. This FTT moved price out of the channel and the next bar showed
strong red volume. So this was a breakout of carryover channel. Price goes up on
what seems to be a retracement (decreasing volume) so we wait for our point 3 to
go short. Point 3 never came which became evident after a little while. YM
showed us direction was up. We had increasing black volume. So instead we wait
for the up channel to make a high (pt 2). Then price went down somewhat during 4
bars and we had our point 3. The rest was very clear. Patience is needed at the
opening and VERY sharp analysis (YM never got back in yesterday's channel, maybe
that was a clue with respect to the opening)
regards,
Ivo
Hourly Channels...
HVS ?
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Re: Re: Re: STOP!
Quote from PointOne:
As to the Forest resolution rules - often the new channel's pt3 occurs within the previous dominant channel - so what do you do then - wait for the BO of the TL and x2x? This is usually way after the FTT is confirmed. I think you may be on the Amazon rainforest resolution.
I don't recall ever dropping the FTT (not ftt) from our action points - waiting for the pt3 is acceptable because it takes great skill (and finer resolution tools) to capture a price near pt 1 and pt3 is also an excellent entry with more gaussian confirmation. It should never lead to sitting through a mini-drawdown though.
Hourly... 11:30am PDT
HVS?
Volume favoring upside a touch... ?
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from mephistoII:
Edit: Oops - looks like the above post was pulled - I thought it was a legit request.
__________________
My ES chart so far.....
ES 15 Mar 07
Annotations seem to be going ok but resuts on sim are dreadful. Only looking at
P&L at end of day. 12 trades today. -4 pts. Lots of small losses.
My ES for today. I carried over yesterday's channel (my pt 1 was at 15:40 yesterday). I'm not sure if this was correct, but it is what I did. It was a choppy day, but lots of points were harvested!
Re: Re: Re: Re: Morning trades
Quote from Bearbelly:
The last few days have been pretty unusual. You have to be in to catch all the big moves alright but many days do not have big moves. The experimenting I did with in all day was pretty disasterous and I think it requires some skills that are not easily attainable. It is the final stage of this whole process. If the volatility stays like it is now the big moves will certainly take care of the mistakes but I dont expect this to last. I am entering on point threes with the intention of eventually entering on ftt's but I want to see steady sustained profits first. Maks admonition about building upon success sticks in my mind.
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Today's ES
03-15-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
You have chosen to respond to an alias of hypostomus. One need look no further than hypostomus' many attempts to derail this thread in order to determine if the request to which you refer contains any validity or not. Should you wish to continue to converse with this sock puppet, please do so within the proper location. Hypostomus has created a virtual world where he converses with himself (and others as the case may be) by logging into ET under a multitude of usernames. Joe Doaks represents one of many known sock puppets hypostomus uses to derail discussions. As such, kindly continue this discussion elsewhere.
Thank-you
- Spydertrader
Today's YM
03-15-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
03-15-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Quote from mephistoII:
I am happy to take the easy path to Lurkersville. I only hope I still retain the freedom to ask questions whenever my pea brain fails to grab the gist of newly disseminated info.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Morning trades
Quote from ivob:
I noticed the same. The market will give it all to you but you have to be in it. (on the right side preferably :-)
Maybe that's what Jack means with his DO, BE, HAVE.
DO what you learned, BE in the market, HAVE gains. Or BE in the market, DO what you learned, HAVE gains (I forgot the order :-)
regards,
Ivo
Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
03-15-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from nkhoi:
great, I'm relieve I though my chart look like one big rectangle mess and it can't be classified as one of M,W,U,V, / , \ day
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from ivob:
Could you pls explain on your carryover channel? I did not have the same channel and cannot see or replicate the way you did this.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Tums:
I thought I was losing my mind. I couldn't see the forest for the trees.
I should have taken a step back and look at the big picture. Everything looks so clear in hindsight.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
See attached chart. I drew in these lines on yesterday's ES chart (yellow highlight). As such, I simply carried them over from the previous day. As you can see, as the market ended the day, the large movement of price (up and down) created a channel with a decreased slope.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from ivob:
Is it a matter of using the latest "memory" or direction of the market?
__________________
Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
03-15-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from dkm:
It may be my imagination, but there seem to be many more points 1,2 and 3 on today's chart, many of which do not seem to relate to the 5 min gaussians. Is this "tree/leaf level" annotation?
__________________
Around 1400 I called it quits cause I was overtrading and missing too many signals. My attached chart shows my shorts in RED and my longs in GREEN.
Unusual Volume
Hi,
The UV of ES at closing is only 0.04, quite low of 65-day avg and down 2pts,
while YM is pretty high at 10.02 and lost 5pts, not much. I wonder why??
Didn't realize the degree of importance of Gaussian untill doing realtime.
Thanks to Spyder and Mak and others for your teaching.
So, may I say, volume come before price is a statement not an assumption.
Quote from Spydertrader:
However, in this thread (and equities), I appreciate everyone making an effort to avoid the mistakes made in the past - namely focusing on and engaging with individuals who's agenda involves sending the discussion off topic.
Again, if I gave you the impression I wanted you to cease providing input here, I do apologize. That certainly was not my intent.
- Spydertrader
Computer glitches all day left me out of the market except for 1.50 points in
between freezes and corrupt files.
However I went back and decided to look for forrest channels and added the
channels.
My AH HAAAA moment today was that each point 1,2 or 3 is often made up of tapes
in sort of a Z pattern. As the chart attached indicates you can have one leg off
of the point 1 identified after the fact when a direction change occurs. Then a
tape moves in a retracement type of pattern off of Point 2 and itself reverses
on a breakout of that tape forming Point 3. If you are late to the action you
can go in on the breakout of the channel that is formed when the market moves
off of Point 2, waiting for the Point 3. This is on the Forrest level. In my
chart it is the first dark green upward channel with the Points and tapes
identified.
The larger the moves the easier it is to find of course. In the first channel I
mentioned above you could go long on the point 3 breakout and ride until the FTT
or BO later on. For example, you go long at the 9:25 AM bar close at 1403.25 and
you would be kept in I believe until the 9:50 AM bar near 1406.50.
This helps me on large swings to find the Point 3 entry and catch a potentially
long move if I am not already in on the move from Point 1 to 2.
Anyway, today's channels in hindsight made it a little easier to visualize 1,2
and 3s.
Quote from optioncoach:
Computer glitches all day left me out of the market except for 1.50 points in between freezes and corrupt files.
However I went back and decided to look for forrest channels and added the channels.
My AH HAAAA moment today was that each point 1,2 or 3 is often made up of tapes in sort of a Z pattern. As the chart attached indicates you can have one leg off of the point 1 identified after the fact when a direction change occurs. Then a tape moves in a retracement type of pattern off of Point 2 and itself reverses on a breakout of that tape forming Point 3. If you are late to the action you can go in on the breakout of the channel that is formed when the market moves off of Point 2, waiting for the Point 3. This is on the Forrest level. In my chart it is the first dark green upward channel with the Points and tapes identified.
The larger the moves the easier it is to find of course. In the first channel I mentioned above you could go long on the point 3 breakout and ride until the FTT or BO later on. For example, you go long at the 9:25 AM bar close at 1403.25 and you would be kept in I believe until the 9:50 AM bar near 1406.50.
This helps me on large swings to find the Point 3 entry and catch a potentially long move if I am not already in on the move from Point 1 to 2.
Anyway, today's channels in hindsight made it a little easier to visualize 1,2 and 3s.
Quote from optioncoach:
Computer glitches all day left me out of the market except for 1.50 points in between freezes and corrupt files.
However I went back and decided to look for forrest channels and added the channels.
My AH HAAAA moment today was that each point 1,2 or 3 is often made up of tapes in sort of a Z pattern. As the chart attached indicates you can have one leg off of the point 1 identified after the fact when a direction change occurs. Then a tape moves in a retracement type of pattern off of Point 2 and itself reverses on a breakout of that tape forming Point 3. If you are late to the action you can go in on the breakout of the channel that is formed when the market moves off of Point 2, waiting for the Point 3. This is on the Forrest level. In my chart it is the first dark green upward channel with the Points and tapes identified.
The larger the moves the easier it is to find of course. In the first channel I mentioned above you could go long on the point 3 breakout and ride until the FTT or BO later on. For example, you go long at the 9:25 AM bar close at 1403.25 and you would be kept in I believe until the 9:50 AM bar near 1406.50.
This helps me on large swings to find the Point 3 entry and catch a potentially long move if I am not already in on the move from Point 1 to 2.
Anyway, today's channels in hindsight made it a little easier to visualize 1,2 and 3s.
My attempt on HSI. It is a thin market. I tried 2 minutes yesterday, the effect was not so good. Today I reduced the fractal further to one minute.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Morning trades
Quote from EdgeHunter:
Something that needs to be addressed sooner or later by Spyder is transaction costs... Bid Ask Slippage and Round Turn costs added together... cj...
__________________
Nikkei - feel free to ignore
Nikkei Gaussians
Another example of Gaussians telling you what is going on. Note the Swiss ball
that formed underneath to support the price action.*
The first FTT circled on the long in the steep channel was inevitable and you
learn to be patient - the prior bars all showed characteristics of strong
continuation, then we saw peak volume, continuation on decreasing volume, then
the FTT on increased volume. This is all in the steep channel.
So now you are looking for R2R which comes on cue at BO of the steep channel.
BUT you have still not had the FTT of the shallower Long channel - you can
therefore anticipate a second top as this is tested again - forming the second
FTT shown (the bar was green until the FTT then change occurred intrabar).
Then there is R2R and free fall, peak volume occurs again as the shallow long TL
is broken (which confirms your channels did have great significance to a lot of
traders).
It's funny how it works out this way even in Japan.
Have a great w/e all and relax, it's all coming together and there is no rush.
(*The Swiss Ball is just a little joke.)
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Morning trades
Quote from Spydertrader:
While I do plan to go more in depth on this subject after we have discussed all the fine resolution tools, let's do a 'quick and dirty' estimation of costs.
ES tic = $12.50
ES point = $50.00
Tree Level ~ 8 - 12 RT (16-24 'in and out') Trades per day. I purposefully inflated the number of trades a 'Tree Level Resolution' Trader would make here.
At $5.00 USD Round Trip (per contract), we have $60.00 dollars (12 RT trades x $5.00 USD per RT) per contract per day in commissions. One contract traded in and out 12 times (twelve round trip trades) racks up 60 bucks in commissions at our $5.00 per RT level. A gross profit of 1.75 points per day on one contract more than covers these costs. As to slippage and Bid / Ask Spread, These 'so called' costs are covered by the gross profit. In other words, If price moved 2 points from your entry and one exits on the bid, the net profit is 1.75 points. The spread is almost always one tic (I say almost because in rare occasions the spread does widen to 2 tics). To cover this 'spread cost' a trader still only needs to profit 1.75 points per day in order to cover commissions and the one tic spread - and still have a net profit. As to slippage, well, we don't place 'target' entry and exit points. The trade provides a profit or it doesn't. If a trader thought they were exiting from there long position at 1400, and instead, found themselves filled at 1399.00, then the 'slippage' would either subtract from the profit or add to the loss on the individual trade. Since a trader only needs to end up the day with a gross profit of 1.75 points to walk away with a small net profit, 'slippage' doesn't effect 'costs' of trading. It may effect one's profitability, but not 'costs.'
As you can see, if one does the math (even when adding in higher than average transaction costs, and higher than average trades per day), a trader needs to end up the entire day barely profitable in order to cover the daily costs.
$60.00 = Commissions and Fees
$12.50 = Bid / Ask Spread
---------
$72.50 = Total cost per contract per day
$75.00 = Total profit on 1.5 ES points / per contract
Remember, the minimum points per day one needs to profit in order to cover all costs and commissions is 1.5 ES points per contract. Anything above 1.5 points per day (per contract) you keep (with a promise to pay Uncle Sam's IRS a few bucks along the way).
I hope the above provides some clarity.
- Spydertrader
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Re: Nikkei - feel free to ignore
Quote from PointOne:
It's funny how it works out this way even in Japan.
__________________
Here's mine for the day. Usually I do well with the Gaussians, but here I had
a lot of trouble with them, which means I had trouble with the overall context.
I felt comfortable with some of the pt 3 to pt 3 moves, though. It's a more
relaxed way of entering than going for the FTTs.
It looks like I'm identifying FBOs too soon, since a couple turned into BOs. But
if you wait, you're often too late, so I'm not sure how to improve my practice
here.
Candles tell me way more than bar charts. In fact, in most cases reversal
candles appear at FTT and give me better indications as to what kind of volume
we have. I have been using candles for a long time and they tell me quite a bit
at a glance.
I wil not recommend them to others as that point has already been made, but for
me the candle tells me more how the bar is forming as the color and body change
over the 5-minute period.
Since I see them naturally they do not distract me or take away from the chart.
Remember it depends on the individual and their comfort level. Candles just give
me more visual info than bars do.
Quote from optionpro007:
Good going coach.
As a personal note, and something that might affect trading this system in the future. By using bars instead of candles I think it is easier to follow precisely how the bar forms during the 5 min period.
I am not sure it is so easy to do with candles.
Just a thought.
This is My EUR/USD forex chart.....seems that Price Range can be used instead
of Volume in forex markets...:
It makes the annotated charts easier to see with bars but Spyder uses candles on his stock charts so he must not have anything against them.
Well you cannot be against a type of chart for other people to use,
you could just favor it over the others for your OWN trading
.
Quote from optioncoach:
In fact, in most cases reversal candles appear at FTT and give me better indications as to what kind of volume we have.
What I meant, is that by the time a reversal candle actually forms it's too
late according to where we are going.
For those familiair with candles they can distract you from the channels
while bar charts are monotone and do not jump out and overpower the channels
being drawn. Thus it makes sense that they are advocated for the learning stage
and for those who are learning from scratch in a sense. Bars move the price to
the background and let the channels jump out clearer.
However candles are distracting for everyone not familiar with them. For me and
many who use candles they are simply a reflection of what is happening in the
price and they do not distract but provide info. For those who understand
candles, they will not find it surprising that reversal patterns such as Dojis,
Hammers, Inside Days and Engulfings occur at FTT and BO points which are
turning/confirmation points in the trend.
My advice is that becoming a better trader is not based on blindly following a
methodical system but digging underneath the rules and methods for the theme of
what is being analyzed and traded on. You need this higher level of study so
that it makes sense as this is not an automated system a computer can blindly
follow. Seeing the big picture is what allows you then to understand why
something was down as it fits the bigger theme.
Master the theme which is the Continent where the Forrest thrives in which the
trees grow and you truly see the big picture. Understanding the big idea of the
channels and points and what FTTs and BO imply along with volume helps you
understand how to identify them better.
With all great respect to Jack and Spyder's generous efforts, it is not enough
to simply follow blindly a prescribed doctrine in the world of trading and hope
to emulate Jack and Spyder's performance. Your individual experience, risk
tolerance, discipline, emotional stability, and risk aversion will affect your
trading decisions always. Even Ed Seykota in Market Wizards (I think it was him)
made a comment that he could teach 1000 people his exact method and most of them
will never trade like him.
HERE IS THE POINT: This is not a system of how to draw trendlines which form
channels and I did not come here to learn how to draw trendlines. Everybody
knows how to draw a trendline - simply connect a series of points.
This system appears to be about WHERE to draw the trendlines and channels in
relation to the price movementsand how to interpret WHAT the price does in
relation to those lines. The theme is WHERE to place the lines not HOW to draw
them. If you do not step back to understand the theme of where the channels or
placed or why they are placed that way, then you never gain the perspective
needed to see the charts the right way.
I am by no means a Market Wizard, but when I was lurking and reading old posts,
all I was doing was looking for thei bigger picture of the system and what it
was doing. Once I got a handle on thoat basic info, I then could put the
specific discussions on channels and points and FTTs, etc in the right context
and have them make sense. Many here try and break it down to the miniscule level
of "How do I identify an FTT or BO?"
If you see the bigger context then it becomes a little clearer as to when price
is failing to traverse the channel you drew and thus not respecting the current
trend it has established. I am by no means an expert here or trying to say I
know it all and let me impart my wisodm.
But starting on the bigger picture context before I dove in is what helped me
only do this for 2 weeks and already see it translate to trading profits and a
clearer vision of the daily price action even without diving into Gaussians yet
lol. I am not there yet on consistency so don't get me wrong I am still in the
learning phase and that is why I am still reading hundreds of pages of old
posts.
That is also why candlesticks or bar charts do not matter at all. If you do not
see the bigger context of the approach or the importance of where you place the
trendlines, then the type of chart is not going to help.
Sorry for the long-winded post, but I think people have missed the intent of
Spyder and Jack for people to also see the big picture and not just get
overwhelmed with drawing lines and looking for clear cut signals. This is a
Monet, up close it can look kind of blurry and formless, but if you step back
you see a beautiful picture in the right context.
Quote from optionpro007:
The saying 'You can't teach an old dog new tricks' comes to mind everytime I bug you about something you are doing 'not in order' to the Jack/Spyder "prescribed" SCT doctrine is concerned
In his book, The creative process in the individual, Howard Troward writes "order is heaven's first law'. Meaning that getting things into it's proper order is the great secret to everything, including the unbelievable or unimaginable yet.
I now Jack and Spyder understand this very well as I am sure there is a good reason for bars for this fractal, but as you point out, success at the individual level is what matters either way.
Let's keep rolling !
That is a bad assumption that a bar chart lets you see into the future but a
candle does not. Both show OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE in the same instant it happens
but present it differently. If you "see" better with one, why would I ignore
that lol.
This candle v bar argument makes no sense in this thread. I do not push it but
many here offer advice to get rid of it. The type of chart should make no
difference if you know how to draw the channels. This is a system of seeing
price action and candles help me see it clearer. Unless we can get into each
other's head, we cannot say how we see something
. I understand why bars are
advised by Spyder, because you have enough to worry about without candles
distracting you...... UNLESS candles are no distraction at all. And that is an
individual decision perhaps...
Do not be distracted by my use of candles ;).
If there are those of you who are interested in candle use or do use candles,
then you can PM me to keep that discussion out of this thread.
Quote from optionpro007:
What I meant, is that by the time a reversal candle actually forms it's too late according to where we are going.
Quote from optioncoach:
This system appears to be about WHERE to draw the trendlines and channels in relation to the price movementsand how to interpret WHAT the price does in relation to those lines.
Quote from optionpro007:
I believe this system is about how the 5 min bars form in relation to volume and other indicators we are yet to study imo.
As I mentioned earlier, a 5 min reversal candle by it's nature is going to be too late to the party.
But hey, to each his own....
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
This is the 1 st Hour action on ES + Charts of advancing and declining issues
on Nyse .....clearly after 20-30 min $ADV and $DECL synchronize...
I'm a beginner (about 2 months behind the thread) so I'm on the Forest Level
but am watching for FTT's on that level of resolution. Correct me if I'm wrong
but this looks like a good one this morning.
No pt.3's on the forest level yet but maybe after this pt.3 channel trades
lower, we'll reverse and go back up and make a pt. 3 for a short entry (just
observing, not sim trading).
This is charts of 5 min and 30 min EUR/USD is obvious that the fastest 5 min
fractal is leading the slowest 30 min....
Quote from flier6:
No pt.3's on the forest level yet ......
Chart for the morning.
Annotating was not hard but trading was. I was jumping in too quickly and was
not half as patient as yesterday. Also the start was hard but it shouldn't be.
It was an FTT followed by FBO on my chart. I definately should wait for bars to
finish, especially at the start of the day because one moment it looks like this
and another moment it looks different.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from dkm:
I have two so far.
Quote from flier6:
DKM, I'm glad you mentioned that. I'm new so pardon my ignorance, but I was under the impression that there are tapes, pt.3's and channels made up of pt.3's. Isn't it only the later that is considered the "forest" view?
Thanks.
Quote from dkm:
I try and focus on the channels that best correspond to the 5 min gaussians. When Spyder introduced the forest rules, it appeared to me from his examples that we were meant to operate on the pt 3 channels but I may have misuderstood.
Just wanted to share my AHA moment of the day.
It was this little gaussian formation that I just saw on YM telling me well in
advance: CHANGE!
regards,
Ivo
ES 16 Mar 07
3 trades, -0.25, +6.5, +3, gross +9.25
The first pt 3 was wobbly but managed to nail the other two.
And this is My Art Drawing.....
Quote from dkm:
ES 16 Mar 07
3 trades, -0.25, +6.5, +3, gross +9.25
The first pt 3 was wobbly but managed to nail the other two.
__________________
Today's ES
03-16-2006 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Nicely done, dkm. Good to see your hard work paying off.
- Spydertrader
Today's YM
03-16-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Very nice.
Happy St. Patrick's Day
Enjoy the weekend everyone.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Same to you Spydertrader. Thanks for all you do for us and have a great weekend.
Quote from dkm:
ES 16 Mar 07
3 trades, -0.25, +6.5, +3, gross +9.25
The first pt 3 was wobbly but managed to nail the other two.
My chart with "action zones" highlighted.
Quote from dkm:
ES 16 Mar 07
3 trades, -0.25, +6.5, +3, gross +9.25
The first pt 3 was wobbly but managed to nail the other two.
__________________
eat all,sup all pay nowt.hear all,see all say nowt. and if Thee ever have to do
'owt for nowt,always do it for thee sen.
Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
03-16-2006 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from No. 6:
why didn't you identify a FTT @11:05 or @11:25 and reverse your short positions?
Quote from No. 6:
wasn't a clear FTT evident @these levels?
Quote from No. 6:
where did you exit your short??
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Good explanation! Was there anything on the YM at this time that you found
helpful in seeing this develop in addition to what you've described on the ES?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Neither of those bars represent FTT's
Note the Yellow Highlighted Area (1) on the attached chart. The 11:00 Bar opens and then heads lower creating a volatility expansion (Orange Arrow). At its low, Price reverses and heads higher (Green Arrow). Closing at the high of 11:00 and then opening at the same level on the 11:05 bar, price continues higher (Black Arrow) until reaching its high of the 11:05 bar where Price then heads lower (Red Arrow) and closes at the low of the 11:05 Bar. At 11:10 AM, Price opens, one tic higher than the close of the 11:05 bar. At this point, even if one considered the 11:05 bar an FTT (at the Open of the 11:10 bar), Volume does not confirm it. Price immediately heads lower showing increasing red volume. Since one needed to see decreasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel, we cannot have an FTT at 11:05. The 11:05 bar represents nothing more than a failed Left to Right (LTR) Traverse.
At 11:25, One could have very easily mistaken this Price Action for an FTT. However, in reality what we see here is a flaw (Specifically, a Dip). Note the vastly lower volume level at 11:20 compared to the 11:15 bar. When Price moves to the 11:25 bar, we see continuation to the down side until Price reaches its low. One could have chosen to view the 11:25 bar as an FTT at this point (instead of seeing it as a Dip). If so, one would then need to see decreasing black volume with the 11:30 Bar. Since we see increasing red volume at the 11:30 bar on a PRV basis, even if you did see 11:25 as an FTT (and not part of the Dip Flaw), then you'd know the market signaled continuation down compared to change.
Edit: In other words, if you view the 11:25 bar as an FTT, then 11:30 becomes an FBO.
Please review my posts with respect to trading on the 'Forest Level Resolution' within this thread.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
Neither of those bars represent FTT's
Note the Yellow Highlighted Area (1) on the attached chart. The 11:00 Bar opens and then heads lower creating a volatility expansion (Orange Arrow). At its low, Price reverses and heads higher (Green Arrow). Closing at the high of 11:00 and then opening at the same level on the 11:05 bar, price continues higher (Black Arrow) until reaching its high of the 11:05 bar where Price then heads lower (Red Arrow) and closes at the low of the 11:05 Bar. At 11:10 AM, Price opens, one tic higher than the close of the 11:05 bar. At this point, even if one considered the 11:05 bar an FTT (at the Open of the 11:10 bar), Volume does not confirm it. Price immediately heads lower showing increasing red volume. Since one needed to see decreasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel, we cannot have an FTT at 11:05. The 11:05 bar represents nothing more than a failed Left to Right (LTR) Traverse.
At 11:25, One could have very easily mistaken this Price Action for an FTT. However, in reality what we see here is a flaw (Specifically, a Dip). Note the vastly lower volume level at 11:20 compared to the 11:15 bar. When Price moves to the 11:25 bar, we see continuation to the down side until Price reaches its low. One could have chosen to view the 11:25 bar as an FTT at this point (instead of seeing it as a Dip). If so, one would then need to see decreasing black volume with the 11:30 Bar. Since we see increasing red volume at the 11:30 bar on a PRV basis, even if you did see 11:25 as an FTT (and not part of the Dip Flaw), then you'd know the market signaled continuation down compared to change.
Edit: In other words, if you view the 11:25 bar as an FTT, then 11:30 becomes an FBO.
Please review my posts with respect to trading on the 'Forest Level Resolution' within this thread.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Good explanation! Was there anything on the YM at this time that you found helpful in seeing this develop in addition to what you've described on the ES?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from No. 6:
BS!
your conclusions depend on your data feed and software. i got a "green" 11:00 am 5 min bar and a higher high @11:05! "11:05" opens a tick above "11:00'. you are well aware aren't you that these bar formations/time are arbitrary and subject to variations of data and software processing, aren't you???
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
Price immediately heads lower showing increasing red volume. Since one needed to see decreasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel..[/B]
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from No. 6:
BS!
Quote from No. 6:
your conclusions depend on your data feed and software.
Quote from No. 6:
i got a "green" 11:00 am 5 min bar and a higher high @11:05!
Quote from No. 6:
"11:05" opens a tick above "11:00'.
Quote from No. 6:
"you are well aware aren't you that these bar formations/time are arbitrary and subject to variations of data and software processing, aren't you???
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from nkhoi:
Do you mean? Since one needed to see decreasing black volume then increasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from nkhoi:
Do you mean? Since one needed to see decreasing black volume then increasing black volume for one to have an FTT in a down channel.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from No. 6:
.... you are well aware aren't you that these bar formations/time are arbitrary and subject to variations of data and software processing, aren't you???
) this conundrum on
various occasions. At the end of each day, I am hopeful to find a very close
match on my chart when comparing against Spyder's - especially in the area of
gaussian interpretation, which I rely on quite heavily realtime. But the reality
is that there are many instances of completely different looking formations
appearing on my chart. For the record, I currently use a combination of IB feed/
Ensign. However, it eventually boils down to the fact that we each can only
trade what we see before our own eyes. )
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from mephistoII:
This does raise a very valid point, and is an area which has provided me with continuing frustrations during this journey. I have been tempted to question (complain?
And perhaps, while on the forest level, my areas of focus are a bit misplaced. If this is the case, I would appreciate hearing the same. ( A short while back, Mak made a comment that kinda minimized the importance of gaussians - it seemed almost blasphemous to me, considering my areas of concentration
wow! learn something new (for me) to day, thank you both. Even detractor help
out sometimes but I don't think
it is hypo, this look like more aggressive species.
Prediction vs Anticipation
For those having difficulty with Anticipation vs Prediction, please review
this post. Continuation vs change are not tied to 'odds of success' in the
future. Reaching the correct conclusion by monitoring sufficient (and correct)
data sets one 'permits one to know what comes next.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hi PrOcrast - thank you for your reply. I believe I realized early on that
entering the mkt on THE FTT bar, specifically, was akin to entering on a coin
flip, at least at our level and using the tools currently at our disposal. I
will also add that it naturally appealed to me, as I've always been a die-hard
countertrend/divergence/ top and bottom picker
(and believe me when I say, I
have died hard many times - heheh)
Perhaps I failed to adequately express the point I was trying to get across: we
are all students here, and as such, I in particular attempt to emulate the
actions of my teachers. When at the EOD, the charts do not match up, it seems to
only exacerbate any frustrations already present in the learning process. But,
again, I can appreciate it's simply one of those things we gotta live with.
Happy St. Patty's day, all ...
Re: Prediction vs Anticipation
Quote from Spydertrader:
For those having difficulty with Anticipation vs Prediction, please review this post. Continuation vs change are not tied to 'odds of success' in the future. Reaching the correct conclusion by monitoring sufficient (and correct) data sets one 'permits one to know what comes next.
- Spydertrader
Re: Prediction vs Anticipation
Quote from Spydertrader:
For those having difficulty with Anticipation vs Prediction, please review this post. Continuation vs change are not tied to 'odds of success' in the future. Reaching the correct conclusion by monitoring sufficient (and correct) data sets one 'permits one to know what comes next.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Prediction vs Anticipation
Quote from mephistoII:
Herein lies the rub - can it be quantitatively defined as to what is indeed the 'correct' data? That may be exactly what I was digging for.
__________________
Re: Re: Prediction vs Anticipation
Quote from Pr0crast:
What you say in that thread is of course true... But what I think a lot of people get stuck on is they see a "change" signal and don't know which fractal it applies to (forest, trees, leaves, etc). A misapplied change signal can surely make things feel a lot more like gambling than like certainty... and speaking from experience, it can lead to frenzied fits of overtrading
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from mephistoII:
A short while back, Mak made a comment that kinda minimized the importance of gaussians - it seemed almost blasphemous to me, considering my areas of concentration
__________________
These are really some excellent explanations, Spyder - thank you so much! I
intend to dissect them until only the frog juice remains.
So that there is no misunderstanding for anyone following along - I have been
mumbling about differences between the data feeds of IB and Esignal, because
that is where I feel I can lose sight of the Forest. If I'm seeing a bunch of
black vol bars on my charts, when you have red bars, is it not feasible that I
may 'draw' an incorrect gaussian formation, and thus incorrectly analyze what
price is 'really' doing. As we know, a tick variation per bar can have an impact
on what one 'thinks' he is seeing - colorwise, that is.
Final question - does the above paragraph smack of a flaw in my basic
interpretation of the gaussians. I always try to fully analyze overall price
movement within any series of bars (price/volume) before assigning a 'color'.
Should I maybe throw 'colors' out the window for now, and just find a different
way to personally annotate the dom and non-dom traverses within the primary
channel, while observing realtime?
thanks, guys ... wish I was better equipped for conveying my ponderings
Try this:
You have an increasing Red Gaussian until price fails to head any lower (within
the current Forest down channel). You have an increasing Black Gaussian until
price fails to head any higher (within the current Forest up channel). You have
a decreasing Red Gaussian until Price fails to head lower in the
current Forest up channel. You have a decreasing Black Gaussian
until price fails to head higher within the current Forest down
channel. At some of these change points (increasing to decreasing or decreasing
to increasing), you should find FBO's. At others, you should find FTT's. If you
find you have made an error with your gaussians, change them. If you find you
have missed a channel due to your revised Gaussians, add it.
See what you find at the Forest Level using the above outline. later, use the
same exercise for the 'Trees'.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Mephisto and Spyder-- nice work. You just cleared up the single biggest issue
that beginners have when learning gaussians.
Of all the people I have talked to, the single largest problem people have when
learning gaussians is that they don't make the connection between price and
volume as you have just described. One tick in either direction that alters the
color of a volume bar should not put anyone's knickers in a twist, yet it always
does. People get caught up in trying to decipher gaussians by looking ONLY at
the volume bars. Gaussians are not arbitrary lines that are drawn based on
volume bar colors and heights, they are representations of the dominant and
nondominant traverses of PRICE that occur within a given operating channel. The
volume bar colors and heights happen to be very closely correlated to this, but
not always given the manner in which 5 minute bars don't always exactly glide
with the critical points in a channel (which may happen intrabar)...
Thanks again, Spyder. All this above has indeed identified some areas of my
personal study in which I need to expend some extra effort. Don't imagine that's
gonna hurt me none
Have a good one ...
And my thanks to you also, PrOcrast! Your always lucid discussions are, I'm sure, well received by many - and more specifically, a big help here! Cheers! ... (and green beer)
Quote from Spydertrader:
Try this:
You have an increasing Red Gaussian until price fails to head any lower (within the current Forest down channel). You have an increasing Black Gaussian until price fails to head any higher (within the current Forest up channel). You have a decreasing Red Gaussian until Price fails to head lower in the current Forest up channel. You have a decreasing Black Gaussian until price fails to head higher within the current Forest down channel. At some of these change points (increasing to decreasing or decreasing to increasing), you should find FBO's. At others, you should find FTT's. If you find you have made an error with your gaussians, change them. If you find you have missed a channel due to your revised Gaussians, add it.
See what you find at the Forest Level using the above outline. later, use the same exercise for the 'Trees'.
- Spydertrader
Quote from WGTrader:
After looking at this again, I think I need to make a change. [/B]
Quote from WGTrader:
After looking at this again, I think I need to make a change.
__________________
Quote from WGTrader:
here's what i mean by in synch...
Quote from Pr0crast:
here's what i mean by in synch...
Very niiice.... Great success!
amazing stuff we are learning.
can't wait for the next quiz.
Here is the corresponding R2R diagram included. Just when you think you know
this stuff...
Quote from Tums:
amazing stuff we are learning.
can't wait for the next quiz.
PRV levels
Spyder: please advise that:
On page 393 of Journal, you mention: During CCC, monitor PRV levels of ES
volume.
I've no idea how to do that, like an ignorant, doing it by visual only
Thanks.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Here's one...
Try to pick out at least 3 bars on which a forest-level FTT occurs. If you need to, use the blank space to draw the channels.
Re: PRV levels
Quote from bucherwin:
On page 393 of Journal, you mention: During CCC, monitor PRV levels of ES volume. I've no idea how to do that, like an ignorant, doing it by visual only
__________________
Gaussian Quiz
Quote from Pr0crast:
Try to pick out at least 3 bars on which a forest-level FTT occurs. If you need to, use the blank space to draw the channels.
__________________
7 people peeked so far.
Not me. I am still thinking.
my sketch
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from No. 6:
BS!
your conclusions depend on your data feed and software. i got a "green" 11:00 am
5 min bar and a higher high @11:05! "11:05" opens a tick above "11:00'. you are
well aware aren't you that these bar formations/time are arbitrary and subject
to variations of data and software processing, aren't you???
Different Data feed same Charts....
Forest level FTTS
This is my effort, I appreciate my gaussians may not be in sync.
Hey I'm new to all this
Edit: I thought the day looked familiar, Its the 9th March. No cheating now.
I must have mis-read the instructions thinking this was similar to past drills...
my stab...
.
quiz
Hope this is close
I forgot the gaussians ....This is My Drill chart....
Quote from mephistoII:
These are really some excellent explanations, Spyder - thank you so much! I intend to dissect them until only the frog juice remains.
So that there is no misunderstanding for anyone following along - I have been mumbling about differences between the data feeds of IB and Esignal, because that is where I feel I can lose sight of the Forest. If I'm seeing a bunch of black vol bars on my charts, when you have red bars, is it not feasible that I may 'draw' an incorrect gaussian formation, and thus incorrectly analyze what price is 'really' doing. As we know, a tick variation per bar can have an impact on what one 'thinks' he is seeing - colorwise, that is.
Final question - does the above paragraph smack of a flaw in my basic interpretation of the gaussians. I always try to fully analyze overall price movement within any series of bars (price/volume) before assigning a 'color'. Should I maybe throw 'colors' out the window for now, and just find a different way to personally annotate the dom and non-dom traverses within the primary channel, while observing realtime?
thanks, guys ... wish I was better equipped for conveying my ponderings
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
In the last couple of weeks this extra time for studying Gaussian really
helped my understanding of the market.
Here is my try at the drill, I just did the Gaussian.
Hi Pr0crast,
I hope this is close
Monday Morning
A reminder for everyone to add their 'carryover' channel before tomorrow's
open, and to quickly add any 'volatility expansion' lines should a gap open
develop. Friday's late day sentiment change (FTT) should direct everyone
accordingly.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Took a break for the weekend. Here's my drill.
Just wanted to share this Real Life price reversal from Up channel
to Down channel...it is a different market but is nice to see that same rules
apply and here...
Forest / Tree
Note the differences between the Gaussians of the 'Large' Forest (Carryover
Channel) from the previous day and the 'Smaller' Forest or 'Tree' level
Gaussians. Always know 'where you are' and what context (resolution level)
through which you currently monitor the markets.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hi Spider...How do you qualify 9:30 and 9:40 Bars on My chart
FTT > FBO's or Dip's....??????? I mean 10:30 and 10:40 am
Best Regards Mr_Black
Mr. Black Questions
Quote from Mr_Black:
Hi Spider...How do you qualify 9:30 and 9:40 Bars on My chart
FTT > FBO's or Dip's....??????? I mean 10:30 and 10:40 am
__________________
Thank you.....
Chart for this morning.
Did not make real mistakes. Caught the first taped FTT and then the ride down to
1405. The subsequent move up caught me by surprise so my profit was very small
(got out at RTL breaking). But of course I should have drawn the down channel at
bars 10:05, 10:10 and 10:15. Then I would have noticed the taped FTT at 10:15
and / or break of RTL right there.
Another indication was increasing black volume from bars 10:20 - 10:25 after
decreasing black volume. Always obvious afterwards :-)
I'm getting a good feeling for the breakouts.
Currently I'm short from around 1415 .
regards.
Ivo
Spydertrader,
I had annotated the red 10:30 bar as a Point 3 on the downward channel. It had
all the markings of a Point 3 with progressively decreasing black volume that
led to it. However, it did not turn out that way.
How/when could one have known that this was not a Point3 ? I keep having this
recurring problem.
Edit: I nailed the Point 3 at 11:20 on the upward channel though.
Thanks.
Quote from ivob:
Another indication was increasing black volume from bars 10:20 - 10:25 after decreasing black volume.
Quote from KK70:
How/when could one have known that this was not a Point3 ? I keep having this recurring problem. I nailed the Point 3 at 11:20 on the upward channel though.
__________________
My ES chart so far....
ES 19 Mar 07
Managed to recognise most of today's pt3's far too late to make use of them.
Also, did not recognise context of carry over channel.
Today's ES
ES Chart 03-19-2007
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
YM Chart 03-19-2007
- Spydertrader
__________________
Perfect example of this (volume drying up after Point 3 established) happened
today. New downtrend channel was marked by:
Point 1 - 12:20 PM 1415.75
Point 2 - 1:05 PM 1410.75
Point 3 - 2:05 PM 1414.75
After the Point 3 occurred it was a nice short entry signalled by a FTT in the
2:05 and 2:10 Bars. The ES ran down to 1411.75 but overall volume was not
"convincing" on the move off of the FTT or the breakout of the upward tape.
Volume was not significant on any of the moves off of the Point 3 and did, I
guess you call it R2B, grow on a strong move back higher on the 2:40 PM Candle.
On the attached chart notice the 1,2,3 and volume trend lines and blue arrow on
the breakout of what should of been a nice strong move lower.
Quote from Spydertrader:
The bar you marked as a Point Three, also turned into an FTT at its low. Easy to see based on your view of the near past bars, how you could view the Price Action as a Point Three Down Channel - espcially, if you missed the earlier Point Three Down Channel (See chart above). If you note the YM during that same time frame (Attached), you see the YM within an up channel during the same time period you mention above. However, even if you missed all of these clues, the next bar (10:35 AM) gives you increasing black Volume. Even if you missed the increasing black on a PRV basis, Price breaking through your RTL is the market's way of saying, the down channel has ended.
After a Point Three, one must see increasing volume in the same direction of the trend, and within the size of the current Point Three Forest or Tree (continuation). When a trader does not see a signal for continuation, then the only other possible conclusion is change.
- Spydertrader
Spyder,
I am getting very confused as to what constitutes “forest level” trading. I
would not have seen pts 1,2,3 on the 9:50,9:55,10:00 bars as “forest level”, or
the same for bars 10:10, 10:15 and 10:20. To me these look like tapes, not pt 3
channels. To see a pt3 channel across 3 bars I would need to go to a faster
fractal. Are you suggesting that all pts 1,2,and 3 on your chart for today
represent forest level trading? If so, I am way off the mark. I had five pt3’s
today, you had 15. My chart annotations seem to be getting further away from
yours, not closer.
Quote from dkm:
Spyder,
I am getting very confused as to what constitutes “forest level” trading. I would not have seen pts 1,2,3 on the 9:50,9:55,10:00 bars as “forest level”, or the same for bars 10:10, 10:15 and 10:20. To me these look like tapes, not pt 3 channels. To see a pt3 channel across 3 bars I would need to go to a faster fractal. Are you suggesting that all pts 1,2,and 3 on your chart for today represent forest level trading? If so, I am way off the mark. I had five pt3’s today, you had 15. My chart annotations seem to be getting further away from yours, not closer.
__________________
Quote from dkm:
Spyder,
..To see a pt3 channel across 3 bars I would need to go to a faster fractal....
I can see now YM leeds ES ....
Quote from nkhoi:
was YM help in any way?
you need only 2 bars to have point 1,2,3, even if you were 1 bar late, a
glance a YM should confirm it is in deed a point3 on ES
Quote from nkhoi:
you need only 2 bars to have point 1,2,3, even if you were 1 bar late, a glance a YM should confirm it is in deed a point3 on ES
I was able to follow this morning. I seemed to be thinking FFT early.
Hopefully I can catch up quickly. Except for the HVS, this morning seemed pretty
easy.
I have some issues with my software to resolve.
my morning HSI (2m)
Quote from Pr0crast:
Here's one...
Try to pick out at least 3 bars on which a forest-level FTT occurs. If you need to, use the blank space to draw the channels.
We should have a flat day today given tomorrows FOMC rate announcement.
This morning's chart.
Most of the time I had no clue what was going on. Also I hate these channels
where price breaks RTL by a few ticks and just keeps on going the original
direction etc. This seems to be happening all the time.
regards
Ivo
My ES so far. Quite orderly this morning
Quote from ivob:
Also I hate these channels where price breaks RTL by a few ticks and just keeps on going the original direction etc.
regards
Ivo
so far...
Quote from WGTrader:
Ivo,
I know what you mean by this. I was having this problem too earlier in the morning, but by keeping the forest view in mind helped look past these few ticks beyond the tapes. In fact, some of my taped channels are rather loose because of this.
Once again I was able to follow the morning.
Watching the YM I got the 8:45 FTT easily enough. I was slow on the 9:00 FTT and
the 9:15 bar really threw me for a loop.
At first I thought it was a FBO and it took me a long while to realize the
market was CCCing and was creating sort of a FTP. Way after the fact I saw the
decreasing VOL that was part of all that and how that makes pt3.
The white channels are the original and blue ones I did after figuring out the
9:15 bar and pt3. The blue channel seems more correct. But either way I'm not
sure I can explain the bars at 10:35, 10:40, and 10:45.
Today's ES
ES Chart 03-20-2007
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
YM Chart 03-20-2007
- Spydertrader
__________________
ES 20 Mar 07
A Reminder
All Times Eastern ....
- Spydertrader
__________________
Spyder
A personal question and I understand if you dont want to answer but I am curious
if you are making more money from futures now or are stocks still your mainstay?
Spyder,
Here is my ES for today. I messed up on the gaussians in the morning, but I
salvaged the rest of the day.
I have a question about the beginning of the day. Under a strict points 1,2,3
scenario, by bar 4 the 3-point channel was established. This however seemed to
be too soon to have a forest level channel and I thought the channel width was
too narrow. So I waited until a more “robust” forest channel was established.
This did happen on bar 8 and at that point I went long. Did I just get lucky or
is this valid reasoning here. Should “forest” level channels be of a certain
width to be classified as a forest channel? Thanks.
Equities or Futures
Quote from Bearbelly:
A personal question and I understand if you dont want to answer but I am curious if you are making more money from futures now or are stocks still your mainstay?
__________________
ES
5 min ES
I'm getting the gaussians much better.
The way price slips out of a channel (ie up channel as today) only slightly and
then continues in direction of previous up channel can get difficult, but the
gaussain ends up sorting this out.
Alos, I'm using 15 min chart which is helping to better see the larger context.
FilterTip
ES
15 min ES.
FilterTip
Quote from WGTrader:
Did I just get lucky or is this valid reasoning here. Should “forest” level channels be of a certain width to be classified as a forest channel? Thanks.
__________________
This is My Chart for today....
Quote from Spydertrader:
Not at all. All you did was wait for the 'Trees' to create your 'Forest' In which you chose to trade. Absolutely nothing wrong with 'waiting' on the day to set up as you would like. When I can't seem to 'see' things in the early going, I sit and wait until I can figure out the context. Once known, then I take action.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Mr_Black:
This is My Chart for today....
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Re: Equities or Futures
Quote from Spydertrader:
Hands down, futs. If it were not for the Equities Journal, I'd no longer trade Equities at all. With Futures, a trader has: No After Hours Homework. Better Tax treatment. No Overnight holdings. Besides, One can scale up a heck of a lot more in the ES, than one can going long GROW.
- Spydertrader
A different view and not necessarily forest, trees, bugs or leaves.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Re: Equities or Futures
Quote from chasedream:
1. How many trades in average do you make per day?
2. Win/lose ratio?
3. Ticks per winning trade?
4. Ticks per losing trade?
__________________
Re: Re: Equities or Futures
Hi, Spyder. It is great to know that you are already quite profitable from trading the futures...Could you mind giving us some stats? eg.
Re: Re: Re: Equities or Futures
Quote from Spydertrader:
In terms of average numbers of trades, The market decides for me. A flat (tight range day) provides more opportunities, but each opportunity provides less profit. On the flip side, a day like 3 weeks ago provided fewer trades (by a huge amount) but each trade provided much bigger profits. In addition, someone trading at a different resolution level than myself, would have a completely different number of trades. Fine Resolution (bug / leaf) has more trades; Coarse Level Resolution (Forest / Tree) would have fewer trades. I have had days were I only made 4 trades and days where I made 32 trades (and everything in between).
I consider the wash trades as +/- 2 tics or break even. Over time, the wash trades even out. Some days, I have multiple wash trades in a row. other days, I have none. Occasionally, I have a loss of 3 tics, due to my inability to react fast enough to a swift market movement, or my own confusion about 'market context' (which side is right?, and is this an FTT or an HVS?)
In terms of profits per trade, that too depends on volatility and range. Three weeks ago we had a single bar which spanned 12 points. During Friday's in late summer, the entire range might only reach five points. I have had days where I only walked away up 2 points, and I have days where I banked an extraordinary amount of capital (and everything in between).
I also leave plenty of money on the table - meaning I do not normally extract three times the daily range. I have done so a few times, but again, it is more the volatility and range of the market which dictates the amount of available profit, rather than, my skill as a trader.
I haven't yet fully (and correctly) used all the available tools (Tic charts for example) in my daily trading. During the day, I only use the tools currently being discussed in the Journal, but monitor the next tool throughout the day. In this fashion, I can answer questions more easily - based on what everyone else has available to them. After all, nobody wants to hear me say, "Oh don't worry about that. If you were using STR / SQU, you'd have caught that spike." Such a response isn't helpful with respect to assisting people learn the methods being discussed.
I hope you find the answers above helpful. If not, please let me know.
Good Trading to you.
- Spydertrader
Quote from makosgu:
A work of art indeed.
Re: Re: Re: Equities or Futures
Quote from Spydertrader:
During the day, I only use the tools currently being discussed in the Journal...
Re: Equities or Futures
Quote from Spydertrader:
Hands down, futs. If it were not for the Equities Journal, I'd no longer trade Equities at all. With Futures, a trader has: No After Hours Homework. Better Tax treatment. No Overnight holdings. Besides, One can scale up a heck of a lot more in the ES, than one can going long GROW.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Rod
"My destiny will NOT be denied. His will be done." - Patton
The beauty of the leverage of futures
Of course it cuts both ways no doubt.
Spyder,
On FOMC days, do you hold a position into 14:15 or do you bracket the market
moments prior?
Thanks.
FOMC Brackets
Quote from optionpro007:
On FOMC days, do you hold a position into 14:15 or do you bracket the market moments prior?
__________________
Chart for the morning.
As expected not much movement.
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: Equities or Futures
Quote from nzbryant:
Interesting. I recall in your first year PVT you made 100%. So I guess you are above that now. A testament to your thorough approach. Well done.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
FOMC
Hopefully, everyone can now see why FOMC day can produce some extremely nice
profits.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Equities or Futures
Quote from makosgu:
Wait till we get well ramped! Hopefully we can get some night owls to shift between US Futures during the day, and Forex Futures in the wee hours... Then they'll be alot more venom from opponents on how any of this is possible...
Re: FOMC Brackets
Quote from Spydertrader:
I trade the morning / midday until volatility and volume drop off significantly. Just before the announcement, I'll place a bracket order. Do not place the order too early, as usually you'll see a 'fake out' move just prior to the actual move.
- Spydertrader
My ES YM charts so far.... seems that today's move was not a mystery but
nothing more than Volatility Exp....
Re: FOMC Brackets
Quote from Spydertrader:
I trade the morning / midday until volatility and volume drop off significantly. Just before the announcement, I'll place a bracket order. Do not place the order too early, as usually you'll see a 'fake out' move just prior to the actual move.
- Spydertrader
I sim traded the event. I set a bracket and when the announcement came it dipped down for a nanosecond and put me in short then turned around and shot up and went right through my long limit order without filling it and I got bad slippage on my stop for the short. This is not that uncommon, I think.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I sim traded the event. I set a bracket and when the announcement came it dipped down for a nanosecond and put me in short then turned around and shot up and went right through my long limit order without filling it and I got bad slippage on my stop for the short. This is not that uncommon, I think.
May be is better to use Market Orders in events like this...
There was some real cool places today when YM was leading the Way of the
ES.....
Today's ES
03-21-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
03-21-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from Bearbelly:
I sim traded the event. I set a bracket and when the announcement came it dipped down for a nanosecond and put me in short then turned around and shot up and went right through my long limit order without filling it and I got bad slippage on my stop for the short. This is not that uncommon, I think.
Spyder what is the appropriate Action when One have stall ....???
Best Regards Mr_Black
Re: Re: FOMC Brackets
Quote from WGTrader:
Can you give us an idea of how you set-up your bracket (OCO) order this afternoon?
__________________
Quote from Mr_Black:
Spyder what is the appropriate Action when One have stall ....???
__________________
Spyder, this is very helpful. Is it your rule-of-thumb to set your entry
points based on the width of the channel?
For example, you said that the channel width was 2 points, so you set an order
to go long when the ES was 2 points above (the current price) and and order to
go short when the ES was 2 points below (the current price).
Is there any validity to apply the same reasoning based on the YM or should one
just stick to the ES when placing these orders? Thanks.
Quote from WGTrader:
Is there any validity to apply the same reasoning based on the YM or should one just stick to the ES when placing these orders? Thanks.
__________________
Spyder
What do you do about stops? According to your snippet you would have went short
like I did only to have it reverse on you immediately. Did you just hit a market
BUY when it turned on you?
edit: never mind. I see I was looking at the wrong lines. The blue lines were
your entry.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Spyder
What do you do about stops? According to your snippet you would have went short like I did only to have it reverse on you immediately. Did you just hit a market BUY when it turned on you?
I can see the logic of that allright. One more question. What kind of order do you use to enter? I would think market orders could be dangerous and limit orders stand a good chance of not getting filled.
Quote from Bearbelly:
I can see the logic of that allright. One more question. What kind of order do you use to enter? I would think market orders could be dangerous and limit orders stand a good chance of not getting filled.
Thought it beared repeating..
Quote from Spydertrader:
A tape is a channel which uses the first two bars to form the trend lines instead of three bars needed in a "point three" channel. In other words, the skinny lines on my charts.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
Forest or Tree Level Resolution Level Traders hold through all flaws (a stall is a flaw). Limb, Leaf and Bug Level Resolution Traders trade through the flaws.
- Spydertrader
Chart for this morning.
Right at this moment there seems to be an interesting breakout.
Very obvious today that YM is leading. If YM doesn't move then ES doesn't move
much either. When ES seems to be moving, it waits until YM is ready.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
Chart for this morning.
Right at this moment there seems to be an interesting breakout.
regards,
Ivo
Part Time
Do you think its possible (and reasonable) to learn and then trade futures, using this method, with an hour or two available a day during trading hours?
Hey Sydertrader,
I'm new to trading but I was wondering if it's possible for you to be a little
clear on daily predictions as far as if you think the market is up, down or side
ways.
I know many members don't do this because they have a fear that if they are
wrong, they will have a negative reputation, but I think it shows confidence.
Any chance, you'll take me up on this?
I'm still new to trading and there are many members on here. It's hard to figure
out who are the true members to learn from versus those who just add to the
noise.
Re: Part Time
Quote from ebulldog:
Do you think its possible (and reasonable) to learn and then trade futures, using this method, with an hour or two available a day during trading hours?
Quote from Bearbelly:
Had a nice point three entry on the 11:55 bar. Second nice pt. 3 forest entry this morning.
Here is my ES mid-day. So far, I've captured 7 pts sim trading. I'm still not
entirely comfortable that I'm getting my gaussians completely right... (I need
more practice!)
Forgot the chart...
Questions
Quote from Tums:
Spyder: What is the definition/characteristics of a stall?
Quote from ebulldog:
Do you think its possible (and reasonable) to learn and then trade futures, using this method, with an hour or two available a day during trading hours?
Quote from z32000:
I'm new to trading but I was wondering if it's possible for you to be a little clear on daily predictions as far as if you think the market is up, down or side ways.
__________________
Today I tried to do continuous trading as opposed to just scalping on a good
entry. Below is my chart as of lunch and I did some things todayand noticed some
things that might be useful so I thought I would share. everything was drawn in
real time.
1. On the Gaussians, I decided to label "strong" or "weak" based on whether the
volume was strengthening or weakening as it would reinforce what was happening.
2. I decided to really follow weak to strong or vice versa (or R2B or B2R as you
guys called it) but I see this easier this way.
3. Notice in the Red Channel with the thick lines the downtrend formed from the
Points 1, 2 and 3 starting from the opening. They are slightly off in my chart
as they should be tilted higher but it does not matter for right now.
The key thing to notice is that volume was strong on every downward tape/channel
within the big red one and volume was weak on every retracement. As this
patterns keeps up, the overall downward RED channel is in tact and the downtrend
continues.
4. Notice that as soon as the strong side of the Gaussians changed from red to
green at a round 11:15 AM, the market began to move higher and had a breakout or
volatility expansion. The volume strenght was on the upward move, not the
downward move and a shift was coming as the breakout demonstrated. A weak volume
retracement confirmed this and VIOLA... a point 3 set up.
I know you all use R2B, etc.. but I thought writing it out this way would make
it clearer for some as it is clearer for me. In the downtrend channel the strong
side of gaussians should be red with weak green retracements as the market forms
its channels in an overall downtrend. As soon as this pattern changes, the
indication is that the overall trend is changing, which it did on the 11:30
breakout followed by excellent Point 3 on the new uptrend at 12:00.
I did not draw in the new upward green tree channel but you can see that it
ended in the sideways CCC I boxed in. Volume was strong
then weak on the breakout which truly showed the
fundamental change from the downtrend. When it went back to
strong and weak after the CCC boxed area yo
ucan see how it was because it was moving into a downtrend.
I found if I use the words strong and weak and green and red I see what the
volume Gaussians are telling me clearer and this may help some of you still
having trouble seeing what volume should be saying or how to use it.
The blue arrow is where I closed out my continuous trade due to the CCC and
desire for lunch. I closed out at 3.25 points net for the day which was great
given the whole I dug myself in earlier in the opening chop (bad moves on my
part)
optioncoach-
I'm very new to Channeling so I won't comment on that aspect BUT as a trader of
Equities for 2 years. You NEVER close out a position because you want to go to
lunch. IF ANYTHING, see where your out is and just leave a stop. You're risking
yourself to potentially miss out on a big move by doing that.
Quote from Churn2Learn:
I'm very new to Channeling so I won't comment on that aspect BUT as a trader of Equities for 2 years. You NEVER close out a position because you want to go to lunch. IF ANYTHING, see where your out is and just leave a stop. You're risking yourself to potentially miss out on a big move by doing that.
__________________
Quote from optioncoach:
1. On the Gaussians, I decided to label "strong" or "weak" based on whether the volume was strengthening or weakening as it would reinforce what was happening.
I appreciate the concern but that attitude has ruined many a trader.
Trading has given me a life not overtaken my life. I used to work in an office
all day long and could not do anything else but work (lawyer) even though I did
my best to trade throughout the day. Now I trade full-time for a living from
home and absolutely love the FREEDOM I have to walk away from the computer IF I
CHOOSE and go to lunch or go to the gym or go play with my son (9 months old).
Don't assume.Most days my ass is in a chair glued to a computer trading, as some
of you who see me in chat can attest or see my posting record. But I am not
handcuffed to this computer either which is the beauty of this life that I
dreamed about.
Trading is my ticket to having a life so I have no problem walking away from a
profitable morning sessions to do some things I also enjoy (I just did not leave
for lunch, I did some other things lol). There is always tomorrow and more
opportunities to make money.
I could have also given everything back in the PM session so it is hard to say I
absolutely risked myself. You cannot put a price on happiness and always
wondering about what you are missing out on or could have made can really bring
you down, trust me.
Quote from Churn2Learn:
optioncoach-
I'm very new to Channeling so I won't comment on that aspect BUT as a trader of Equities for 2 years. You NEVER close out a position because you want to go to lunch. IF ANYTHING, see where your out is and just leave a stop. You're risking yourself to potentially miss out on a big move by doing that.
Here is my ES for today. Until 12:30 today, I had no problems. But after 1:30
or so, I was over trading trying to figure out what was what (the afternoon was
a wash). I did manage to finished the day with 7 pts. I was a little late
getting into some positions because I submitted my order as a limit order rather
than a market order (not what I wanted to do). Still working on the gaussians.
Anyhow, the journey continues!
Thanks to all who post their charts (in addition to Spyder). I learn a lot from
studying the charts of others.
Today's ES
03-22-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
03-22-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Yes that is the basics but it also depends on height of volume bars. Spyder
mentioned early in this thread about putting rays across the volume bars to help
forecast out the PRV. I was using that as well.
I have to admit that today was pretty easy to chart the volume but in general I
am looking for an uptrend in volume and then a peak and then a downtrend. As you
can see from my chart it is not always a perfect mountain like this: ^ but after
looking at a lot of charts you start to see the patterns.
But basically I am looking at what the current channel is doing and if it is
moving lower I want to see increasing volume going with it until a peak is
formed (this is the strong side) and I notice a FTT and possible breakout of
that downward channel.
Then if the retracement/BO starts I would look to see if a weak side develops.
After a tree channel is formed you have at least 3 smaller channels inside to
look for this pattern: /strong then weak\ and then /strong. (this is clearer on
my chart).
Quote from Aurum:
Interesting way to view them OC.
Just so I'm sure I understand you correctly - you decide a gaussian is "strong" when the volume is increasing over the previous bar, and it's "weak" when the volume is decreasing from the previous bar? Do you have any other criteria you use?
-Au
I was geting chopped up this morning up till 1100 then the Chart cleaned up.
My chart was real time till 1 pm and the rest was completed after the market
closed. During the choppy time I kept
reversing and never really sure what was going on.
Quote from 8833broc:
I was getting chopped up this morning up till 1100 then the Chart cleaned up. My chart was real time till 1 pm and the rest was completed after the market closed. During the choppy time I kept
reversing and never really sure what was going on.
WGTrader,
Over the past several weeks I was doing the volume drill where I had about 6
different 30 minute volume daily charts and with only the volume chart I tried
to figure out what the price chart looked like and where the ftt's were. I was
actually getting pretty good with this. Interestly enough my actiual trading
account was doing mediocre. In real time I was focusing too much on the 5 minute
volume charts and basing my trading decisions more on volume than the price and
channels. This last point I discovered when reviewing my trades. Recently I
decided to focus more on the price and channels and saw that my trading
improved.
I am not sure what to conclude from this. Several possibilities are:
1) I was overloaded with trying to put price and volume into a meaningful
picture. With more trading experience I may be able to make more sense of this.
I've been mislead a few times where I said FTT based on a rising chart and
falling volume only to see the price continue to slowly move up.
2) Volume on the 5 minute factal and figuring the gaussians is an art.
Some of Mak's past comments were not to worry to much about the gaussians at the
forest levels and also I review Spyder's excellent annotated charts daily and
sometimes I have a difficult time seeing the gaussians as he does.
Hope this helps. THe bottom line is that I am continuously learning by my
mistakes and by my success.
Thanks 8833 for sharing. So far, volume gaussians have been the most difficult thing for me to get. I too study Spyder's excellent charts, but sometimes I don't know why they (volume gaussians) are drawn the way they are. When I'm annotating my charts in RT, I tend to look at the volume in a rather literal sense - that is when I see rising prices on continuously lower volume, I think change is coming up. (I keep referring to the Jokari Window). Sometimes however, this doesn't translate into the same volume gaussians that Spyder draws or others for that matter. I will say though, the more I annotate the charts in RT, the more familiar they look. Perhaps this is part of that unconscious competence that we're all learning!
Quote from 8833broc:
Some of Mak's past comments were not to worry to much about the gaussians at the forest levels and also I review Spyder's excellent annotated charts daily and sometimes I have a difficult time seeing the gaussians as he does.
__________________
Been lurking for awhile. Finished the 3 equities journals last month. Just
got caught up with the futures.
I want to thank Jack for teaching his methods.
Thank you Spydertrader for your tremendous effort to pay it forward. You'll
probably never realize all the people you reach.
Thanks to Mak, Pr0crast, bundlemaker for your help also.
Thanks to everyone participating here.
To the skeptics: Do the Work. It is alot - the rewards are more than money!
-Mike
Quote from optioncoach:
..
1. On the Gaussians, I decided to label "strong" or "weak" based on whether the volume was strengthening or weakening as it would reinforce what was happening.
..
Re: Questions
Quote from Spydertrader:
A 'Stall' represents a temporary slowing of price movement in the direction of the dominant trend. Usually represented by an opposite color Price and Volume Bar (but not always) a stall normally falls 'inside' the previous Price bar and has significantly lower Volume than the previous Volume bar.
Re: Re: Questions
Quote from Tums:
is a lateral simply multiple stalls?
and CCC = multiple laterals?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Questions
Quote from Spydertrader:
Hold.
- Spydertrader
ES so far. Finding it very difficult to anticipate pt3's in a timely manner.
Here's my morning.
Looking at it now it seems like I need to slow down as the vol decreases before
noon.
Chart for this morning.
No real surprises. Understood most that was going on.
regards,
Ivo
Edit: I see my black channel is wrong, should start at green point 1.
Here is an example of different Gaussians on different resolutions. Notice
the B2B on a lower resolution inside the R2R of a larger resolution.
I know this is a finer resolution than we are looking at right now, but thought
it shows what can happen between the 'Forest' and the 'Trees'
-Mike
quite an orderly day.
Here is my ES as of 12:30. The 10:00 bar created a very wide forest channel, which threw me off at times.
Today's ES
03-23-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
ES 23 Mar 07
5 trades, -1.75
Today's YM
03-23-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Mistakes made
Please share my mistakes in trading ES and hope you won't repeat them:
1. At 13:14 short @1445.50, didn't reverse it at 13:15 for long.
or, had I held it through the congested area and exit at 14:20, I would have
made 1/2 to 1 point instead of minus 2 points.
2. Didn't enter for long soon after 14:20, price was 1444.25+-while the price
bar touch the LT and bounced up trend, eventually BO the RTL at 15:20 with
decreased volume and price was 1449.75. MO 4pts+.
I did not get to trade much today but I did go back to study the charts and
practice. I decided to just look at the bigger picture and noticed the nice red
channel that formed off of the Points 1,2 and 3.
Some things which is not of interest to the majority but some might find it
interesting:
1. We are heading into Monday's open on a downward channel in the bigger
downward channel. At the open I am going to look for a FTT/BO or continuation
for trading.
2. Interesting on a rangebound day, the market trading between the Pivot Point
and S1 which is the yellow and red dotted line. Pivot points usually are
reversal points so if the market bounces off of one and heads to the other (as
in 2:30 point 2 to 3:30 Point 3). It could help anticipate the change in the
channel direction and maybe start looking for volume clues and channel FTTs as
it hits the pivot. I know Spyder has Pivots on his chart but does not refer to
them and maybe it could be covered, but sometimes they are a target and one can
watch for signals as the target is hit for FTTs/reversals.
3. For those who follow candlesticks, it should come as no surprise that
reversal type candles such as hammers occur at points that are also labelled as
FTTs. For example, the Point 1, 2 and 3 on my chart of the red channel occur at
hammer/doji type reversals. (if you do not follow candles then please ignore
instead of a rant reply).
4. This may be covered but I noticed that the channels got narrower as time
progressed through the day. (except for that one volatility expansion I noted).
I wonder if there is some clues to the channel ranges compressing or expanded
with each directional change. Something to think about when looking at the big
picture for the day.
Re: Mistakes made
Quick comment, you seemed to have gone short on the volatility expansion out
of the downward channel. On the next bar the market moved back into the channel
and closed inside the channel at 1446.50 or so. That, I believe and others can
correct me, makes it a FBO and when it goes back into the channel you can
close/reverse and it would have been a 1 point loss only.
Also, you made a mistake I often made before, jumping in at the absolute end of
a long bar/candle. If you missed the breakout that started the move, then do not
chase and jump on the bar after it has made a long move. Watch the price action
and wait for another point to enter or look for a reversal. I think the fear of
missing the big breakout made you jump in at the end of the move of that one bar
and not maybe see the overall channel and price action.
if you miss the initial move, then watch and wait for a better opportunity which
always comes along.
Sorry but thought this would be useful.
Quote from bucherwin:
Please share my mistakes in trading ES and hope you won't repeat them:
1. At 13:14 short @1445.50, didn't reverse it at 13:15 for long.
or, had I held it through the congested area and exit at 14:20, I would have made 1/2 to 1 point instead of minus 2 points.
Re: Mistakes made
Quote from bucherwin:
Please share my mistakes in trading ES and hope you won't repeat them:
..
missing opportunities
OC and nkhoi:
Thanks for the advices.
Im reading the CME course on Market Profile and in the description of the
overall auction process they end the chapter with:
This is My Friday Chart....
-Tom Williams , Master the Market.
Quote from nkhoi:
-Tom Williams , Master the Market.
Quote from optioncoach:
Some things which is not of interest to the majority but some might find it interesting:
1. We are heading into Monday's open on a downward channel in the bigger downward channel. At the open I am going to look for a FTT/BO or continuation for trading.
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Quote from z32000:
I was wondering how to determine what's considered increasing and decreasing volume...
Quote from z32000:
A lot of times, I can see either 2 or 3 bars that are probably double the standard average sized bar... and everything else is just mainly random...
Quote from z32000:
also, does anyone have any idea where I can find the SPX, SPY or ES graphics beyond 1 decade? Free would be great if possible.
__________________
My comments were based off of the intraday chart I posted not the daily
chart. We headed into Friday's close in the dowanward channels I mentioned which
are in my pic attached above.
I do like your hourly charts and they are great for confirming larger picture
trends.
I started looking at the daily Es chart for channels but it is too slow compred
to the iintraday ones.
I did overlay channels on daily NDX charts as well as NQ futures (daily) and the
channels develop nicely and started trading some spreads off of those channels
on NDX daily charts.
Quote from EdgeHunter:
Hi OC',
could you post a chart of this it sounds interesting as a viewpoint...
i like to sometimes post Hourly Channel Charts so i would like to see your daily channel chart if possible...
thanks...
cj...
New home sales figures at 10 AM. Heads up.
Spyder, if one was to bracket this market as you mentioned earlier, how do you
get into the position, with stops ?
Thanks.
Quote from optionpro007:
New home sales figures at 10 AM. Heads up.
Spyder, if one was to bracket this market as you mentioned earlier, how do you get into the position, with stops ?
Thanks.
Quote from optionpro007:
Spyder, if one was to bracket this market as you mentioned earlier, how do you get into the position, with stops ?
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
I suppose instead of an OCO order, one could use a pair of conditional orders which included the stop price (for either directional trade) already set, and when Price triggered either, the conditional would automatically place the directional as well as the stop upon execution. Since I do not use stops, perhaps some of the more experienced 'bracket entry' folks can comment on their experience.
- Spydertrader
Quote from optionpro007:
As per SCT guidelines, before a mayor announcement, expected to move the market substantially in either way, what are we supposed to do? Exit the market and reenter with a market order as we see price cross either boundary and then continue SCTing ?
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
I only bracket on an FOMC Announcement. The others I hold through (or reverse as the market prescribes). Jack recommends using the bracket order when entering (after being sidelined) out of CCC as well.
- Spydertrader
March has been one great month and we still got the rest of the week to go. Looking forward the the str/squ disscussion.
Chart for this morning.
Trading was not very easy. Point 3's didn't seem to last very long (or you could
just say it was never a point 3 anyway). For example my blue channel I entered
on three. When the next bar was green but not on increasing volume I got out
which was a good thing to do and even made some ticks.
regards,
Ivo
Tried to draw in tapes, trees and the forest this morning.
The 11:15 bar was tricky.
I found this morning somewhat difficult as well. Here is my ES so far...
For those who might be interested, here is my sim log for this morning too. At times I didn't know which side was up!
Quote from z32000:
Just out curiousity, which would be the news source/website that is known to be the first with this data?
Thanks
a v day so far, did a live call to demo the power of channel, it worked,
thank you.
Quote from zzajin:
Tried to draw in tapes, trees and the forest this morning.
The 11:15 bar was tricky.
Quote from Avi 8:
Try this website:
http://quote.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
-Mike
Quote from z32000:
Zzajin, someone posted a tutorial on tapes, trees and forest a while back....
do you know where it is?
Thanks
Thi is My YM ES charts so far...
Channels and Gaussians
Just as a review, lets take a look at how the Gaussians always follow
their channels. In the attached chart snippet, our Forest (Blue channel) shows
decreasing red volume from the high at 11:35 through 12:05 low. Across the
entire area (11:35 - 12:05), we see decreasing red volume. At the same time,
we see decreasing red (as price retraces) to increasing red (as price breaks
out) from the Green Up Channel (Tree - Yellow Highlight). Note the two red
arrows at 11:40 and 11:45 Volume Bars. As we would expect in a down channel, we
see decreasing black volume when price retraces (Green highlight) from 11:50 to
12:00 bars. The first third of the 12:05 bar continues to show decreasing black
until price changes course and creates a point three down channel. We see
increasing red with this bar - exactly as expected in a Point Three (another
Tree - Red). At the end of the 12:05 bar, we note Price forming an FTT, and as
Price retraces to the right side trend line, we again see decreasing black
volume (exactly as anticipated). At 12:10, we have increasing black volume as
Price breaks through the right side (red) trend line continuing to increase in
both price and Volume to the 12:20 bar. At the same time, we show increasing
black volume across the entire Blue Forest from 11:30 to 12:20 (Pinkish colored
Volume Arrow).
When monitoring Gaussians and Channels, one must always make sure one monitors
on the correct resolution level. After all, the attached chart shows how
easy it is for the market to draw a trader in to ever finer levels of resolution
without even realizing it.
I hope everyone finds the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
__________________
ES 26 Mar 07
Today's ES.
Re: Channels and Gaussians
Quote from Spydertrader:
Just as a review, lets take a look at how the Gaussians always follow their channels. In the attached chart snippet, our Forest (Blue channel) shows decreasing red volume from the high at 11:35 through 12:05 low. Across the entire area (11:35 - 12:05), we see decreasing red volume. At the same time, we see decreasing red (as price retraces) to increasing red (as price breaks out) from the Green Up Channel (Tree - Yellow Highlight). Note the two red arrows at 11:40 and 11:45 Volume Bars. As we would expect in a down channel, we see decreasing black volume when price retraces (Green highlight) from 11:50 to 12:00 bars. The first third of the 12:05 bar continues to show decreasing black until price changes course and creates a point three down channel. We see increasing red with this bar - exactly as expected in a Point Three (another Tree - Red). At the end of the 12:05 bar, we note Price forming an FTT, and as Price retraces to the right side trend line, we again see decreasing black volume (exactly as anticipated). At 12:10, we have increasing black volume as Price breaks through the right side (red) trend line continuing to increase in both price and Volume to the 12:20 bar. At the same time, we show increasing black volume across the entire Blue Forest from 11:30 to 12:20 (Pinkish colored Volume Arrow).
When monitoring Gaussians and Channels, one must always make sure one monitors on the correct resolution level. After all, the attached chart shows how easy it is for the market to draw a trader in to ever finer levels of resolution without even realizing it.
I hope everyone finds the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Today's ES
03-26-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
03-26-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
ES07M
Lesson learned "to hold".
Entered at 14:14 @1444.25, held through HVS/CCCs, and out at 15:50 @1449.00.
Re: Re: Channels and Gaussians
Quote from ivob:
Thank you, very useful as I had problems recognizing this. Exactly when did you consider the 12:05 bar to be an FTT? For me this was not obvious until two bars later because I think it could very well be that the 12:10 bar would continue the traverse. In general point 3 and FTT on the same bar is a little tricky IMO.
__________________
I have a question. Why isn't there an upward channel at the end of the day on
the ES?
pt 1 being at 15:20
pt 2 being at 15:30
pt 3 being at 15:40
sorry if it's not clear, don't know how to add a picture. Do you guys understand
what I'm asking?
Sorry meant 15:20.
Here's mine for the day. The orange lines are volatility expansions from
Friday's down channel.
I went short on the 9:50 point 3, held through the RTL break on the next bar
because the volume was so weak, and really enjoyed the ride down....
But I lost a couple of points later on, and stuck to annotating for the
afternoon.
Quote from z32000:
Zzajin, someone posted a tutorial on tapes, trees and forest a while back....
do you know where it is?
Thanks
Missed Channel
Quote from Churn2Learn:
I have a question. Why isn't there an upward channel at the end of the day on the ES?
__________________
Quote from Churn2Learn:
don't know how to add a picture.
__________________
Re: Missed Channel
Quote from Spydertrader:
There should be a 'steeper' channel there. I simply missed it.
- Spydertrader
Spydertrader,
I have the channels a bit different, and am looking for clarification. They seem
to work out ok. Is there any reason why I shouldn't have drawn in the steeper
blue channel (noted with 1,2,3), and then later adjusted for a slower pace at
13:50 and 14:40? I'm comparing to yours which favors more volatility expansions
and less channel adjustments.
Quote from Ezzy:
I have the channels a bit different, and am looking for clarification. They seem to work out ok.
__________________
decided to give quotetracker a try today... anyone know how i can get that stupid GLOBEX off my background?
Quote from Pr0crast:
decided to give quotetracker a try today... anyone know how i can get that stupid GLOBEX off my background?
Quote from Spydertrader:
It's how you see the market. You should continue to draw your channels as you see them. Now, if you had an uptrend in place of a tanking market, we might have a problem, but as long as you see the market and the channels (and your Gaussians match those channels), and by doing so, you have the ability to profit, then continue on in the same manner.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Channels and Gaussians
Spydertrader, would you please elaborate on your statement?
The 12:10 decreasing black volume in the red down channel could also mean
retracement, hence continuation down, isn't it? Then, the 12:15 black rising
volume seems like an indication of the change.
Quote from Spydertrader:
...
2. If you were trading the trees, any point on the 12:10 bar where you recognized PRV volume as decreasing black, tells you the you no longer have continuation down.
...
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Channels and Gaussians
Quote from cnms2:
Spydertrader, would you please elaborate on your statement?
The 12:10 decreasing black volume in the red down channel could also mean retracement, hence continuation down, isn't it? Then, the 12:15 black rising volume seems like an indication of the change.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Channels and Gaussians
Quote from Spydertrader:
snip . . . I hope my answer provided some clarity, if not please let me know.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Channels and Gaussians
Thanks!
Quote from Spydertrader:
...
Since ivob asked, 'When did we know we had an FTT?' our sufficient data set (in this specific example) becomes Failure of Price to Traverse, followed by, decreasing black volume.
I hope my answer provided some clarity, if not please let me know.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Channels and Gaussians
Quote from Spydertrader:
Ivob asked the question, with respect to my previous example (Red Channel), 'At what point did we know we had an FTT?'
If one searches for FTT's then a signal for change is the FTT (in this case decreasing Black Volume confirms the FTT). In such an example, increasing Black Volume becomes continuation - but only after the BO. If one searches for Right Trend Line Break Outs (or Point Threes), then the signal for continuation is increasing black volume. In other words, if one doesn't enter until a breach of a RTL, then one needs to see increasing black volume. If one enters off an FTT, then one needs to see decreasing black volume followed by increasing black volume to have continuation (hold).
It all boils down to what level of Resolution a trader chooses to monitor. In the previously posted example, increasing red Volume would have meant continuation (down). If a trader chose to monitor for FTT's, then the signal for change (FTT followed by decreasing Black Volume) differs from a trader who chooses to monitor for RTL Breaks (Price exits the channel with increasing Black Volume).
Since ivob asked, 'When did we know we had an FTT?' our sufficient data set (in this specific example) becomes Failure of Price to Traverse, followed by, decreasing black volume.
I hope my answer provided some clarity, if not please let me know.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Channels and Gaussians
Quote from ivob:
I find the terms "increasing" and "decreasing" somewhat confusing. In this case decreasing black volume confirms the FTT but I would like to have the term "decreasing" clarified. Decreasing means "becoming less" but compared to what? Becoming less compared to black volume before the FTT or becoming less in the bar(s) after the FTT? (I suppose after the FTT)
"Becoming less" is relative and can also mean black volume is first high (after the FTT) and then on a later moment in the same bar low or lower. Another option is that black volume after the FTT is low and on a later moment even lower. This is also decreasing.
Am I seeing this right?
Also I remark that determining whether something is increasing or decreasing (or stable) requires us to wait because this means comparing volume levels on different moments. One cannot wait too long however.
regards,
Ivo
heads up: consumer confidence - 10:00a ET.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Channels and Gaussians
Quote from palinuro:
Ivo,
I'm sure Spyder will have a better explanation, but since he's probably sleeping now, I'll give it a try.
Volume increases throughout the dominant traverse (and it will be predominantly dominant volume). Keep in mind that there are 3 possible ends to a dominant traverse. As volume peaks, price :
1 - hits the LTL,
2 - FTTs, or
3 - creates a volatility expansion.
After 3 price may continue (with more volume), but after 1 or 2 price changes direction as volume peaks. So color and direction change, but volume stays high, and then decreases as price makes the nondominant traverse. Whether that happens intrabar or over a series of bars depends on market pace and the resolution you're monitoring.
I don't think it makes sense to compare black volume before and after the FTT, as you suggest. Assuming we're in a down channel, a black bar before the FTT would occur within a subchannel, whereas black volume afterward would be the nondominant traverse of the main channel--a different resolution level.
Regarding waiting: yes, but I think the goal is to tune yourself well enough to the ebb and flow of volume and the interaction of the various levels of channels that the lag becomes unimportant. To reduce lag at one level you need to have the ability to monitor accurately at the next lower resolution level, etc.
FWIW, I found yesterday after the drop especially tough because there were so many periods of fairly flat volume and price, followed by sudden spikes which were hard to anticipate. Before the spike I didn't know what direction to take, and after it seemed too late to enter.... Perhaps that's why Jack talks about bracketing CCC periods, though Spyder seems to do "OK" without doing that.
Hope that helps.
Chart for this morning.
I am noticing a lot of improvement in all areas. Annotating, recognizing FTT's
quickly, decreasing non dom volume and recognziging the BO's and FBO's, etc.
Today it was just price turning from up to down at 11:00 that came a little
unexpected (price just broke out RTL on ES and I was looking for pt 3).
For some reason I find it easier to recognize quickly a real breakthru of RTL
than a point 3 after that.
regards,
Ivo
Had a lot of problems this morning.
I originally had the dark purple channel drawn in after the two tapes this
morning and using yesterdays FFT. While the volume gaussians were showing a down
trend, the purple channel was obviously off. it wasn't till around 10:30 that I
decided to disregard the previous days FFT as point 1 and use todays open.
The 10:00 WRB wasn't much fun either.
I started annotating my FFT calls today too and as an aside dealing with text in
quotetracker is a pain.
My YM ES charts for this morning....
Quote from Mr_Black:
My YM ES charts for this morning....
Quote from Pr0crast:
Nice charts, black!
real time notation, need stronger mind to to take it tho
ES 27 Mar 07
Did not get to trade much today but tried to draw lines in real time as best as I could. A couple of great tree level Point 3s developed.
Today's ES
03-27-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
03-27-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
03-27-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Lightbody:
I have a question on todays chart, as noted on the attached:
__________________
My trades and chart for today. After all reviewing my trades and charts I hear myself keep saying patient and wait for a good point 3.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
[/B]
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
I am only posting today's chart to show others that when it comes to
annotating "size" of the screen/chart does matter.
I was having problems at the beginning which were rectified once the chart was
enlarged.
Just a thought.
Attached is my hindsight view of the ES today. My real-time chart was similar
but I forgot to take screen before I closed my App, lol.
My recent AHA and current struggle is this: Channels Widen. Traverses often
"operate" without much widening required. But, the cool Forest channels often BO
the RTL for a while and then begin more dominant traverses. I'm working hard to
find and stay in these wider channels but it's been challenging for sure (for me
anyway).
Obviously, the wider channels are easier to see in hindsight. The steep
traverses that don't widen are fairly easy to see in real-time, at least some of
them .
The chart shows my new Channel GUI. These chart "objects" were inspired by
Jack's "Golf Posts" in one of the older threads. Sorry, no Guassians because I
don't have the tools working in the Volume pane, yet.
The Volume At Price distribution (blue, to the right of price) is OT but is
interesting. And my volume is a bit off right now, so please ignore it
.
spooz
I like
Spooz,
You certainly win the prize for the most unique annotation!
PV
Since we're still in the month of Gaussians and PV, I wanted to post while
we're still on topic.
From Jack's "Building Minds for Builiding Weath", PV is:
If the Volume trend is UP, then the Price trend will CONTINUE, or,
If the Volume trend is DOWN, the the Price trend will CHANGE
When I apply the above statements to channels and Gaussians, I read them as
follows:
If Price is in an operating UP channel and the dominant Gaussian peaks (B2R's)
are decreasing, then anticpate CHANGE, or,
If Price is in an operating UP channel and the dominant Gaussian peaks (B2R's)
are increasing, then anticpate CONTINUATION.
And of course, similar for operating down channels:
If Price is in an operating DOWN channel and the dominant Gaussian peaks (R2B's)
are decreasing, then anticpate CHANGE, or,
If Price is in an operating DOWN channel and the dominant Gaussian peaks (R2B's)
are increasing, then anticpate CONTINUATION.
By "operating", I mean you have found Gaussians that sync well to your channels.
I believe this is an important statement. Gaussians should validate your
channels. But these are my opinions.
If I understand PV and have described this properly, Increasing/Decreasing
DOMINANT Gaussians are important to recognize. Although this is probably true at
any fractal, I'm really talking about Gaussians that are wider than a bar or
two. Sure, tapes operate, but I'm talking about Gaussians we see in the trees
and Forest.
I've attached a "theoretical" Gaussian/PV chart. In the Up channel, there are 3
"wide" Gaussians. And the dominant peaks are decreasing. What's happening here?
Well, Price is moving higher on lower/decreasing BLACK volume. Right? And note
the channel is "operating". PV says anticipate CHANGE when the Price trend is UP
and the Volume trend is DOWN (decreasing). So, anticipate CHANGE.
In the down channel, there are again 3 wide Gaussians. But this time, the
dominant peaks are increasing. Price is moving lower on increasing RED volume.
PV says a Price trend will CONTINUE if the Volume trend is UP (increasing). So,
anticipate CONTINUATION or NO CHANGE.
Of course, this isn't cookboook or mechanical. It's more of an Art, in my
opinion. Volume could come in at any time in the opposite of the anticipated
direction. And news can wreak havoc, as we all know. But this is my
interpretation of PV. And I hope I got it right...
I didn't annotate the FTT's, FBO's, BO's, R2R, etc. Exercise for the interested
reader
Sorry for the long post. I'd appreciate any feedback, especially if i'm on the
wrong page...
spooz
Re: PV
Quote from spooz_trader1:
By "operating", I mean you have found Gaussians that sync well to your channels. I believe this is an important statement. Gaussians should validate your channels. But these are my opinions.
__________________
Re: Re: PV
Quote from Spydertrader:
... a mistake exists somewhere, and requires an immediate fix. ...
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: PV
Quote from Spydertrader:
Gaussians and Channels must always exist within a state of Synchronization. If they do not, a mistake exists somewhere, and requires an immediate fix. Either, the trader has drawn in an incorrect channel, or the trader finds themselves monitoring on an incorrect Resolution Level.
- Spydertrader
Would you guys clear something up for me. One thing I get confused about is
when price steadily increases on decreasing volume. I can see that decreasing
volume is forecasting change in the attached channel but still overall price is
increasing while volume is decreasing and I thought price was only able to
increase on increasing volume. I am sure I missed something along the way.
Re: PV
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Since we're still in the month of Gaussians and PV, I wanted to post while we're still on topic.spooz
Quote from Bearbelly:
Would you guys clear something up for me. One thing I get confused about is when price steadily increases on decreasing volume. I can see that decreasing volume is forecasting change in the attached channel but still overall price is increasing while volume is decreasing and I thought price was only able to increase on increasing volume. I am sure I missed something along the way.
Aha. Looking back at Spyders recent post I see what you are talking about. Backtracking a bit I see that we were in an overall downtrend from the previous close so I was not looking at the correct channel. Fascinating stuff.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Aha. Looking back at Spyders recent post I see what you are talking about. Backtracking a bit I see that we were in an overall downtrend from the previous close so I was not looking at the correct channel. Fascinating stuff.
Lower Volume
Let me get this streight--lower volume on rising price in a down trend--is not sustainable. The price will turn and follow the volume and major trend. ???
My ES as of noon today. So far I've found this morning easy to follow. Picked
up a few points
My chart for this morning.
Trading was no problem. There were a few problems:
- until 10:30 I was seeing things that were not there. It was just a lateral I
think. This resulted in a few losers. I think it is wise just to wait until
announcements are over.
- Sometimes price moved so fast that it was hard to catch the point 3 (or it
seemed there was no)
- I used to have two problems: bad entries (skill problem) and not holding on to
winners. A deadly combination because the few times I had a winner they never
made up for the losers. Now that my entries are very much better I should not be
surprised or excited anymore to have "a winner" and work on pushing the hold
button. The question is now more about how big the profit will be (which
required holding until "change") then if it will be a winner or a loser.
Still managed to take 10+ points.
regards,
Ivo
Re: Lower Volume
Quote from ralphbass:
Let me get this streight--lower volume on rising price in a down trend--is not sustainable. The price will turn and follow the volume and major trend. ???
Quote from Pr0crast:
Nice charts, black!
change of trend?
Does the rising volume supporting the up move suggest we have a major change of trend from down to up?
Quote from Bearbelly:
Aha. Looking back at Spyders recent post I see what you are talking about. Backtracking a bit I see that we were in an overall downtrend from the previous close so I was not looking at the correct channel. Fascinating stuff.
YM ES charts so far....
ES 28 Mar 07
Struggled with getting oriented during the morning, courtesy of Bernie. The pt
3's look so obvious with hindsight but only managed to catch one of them. Too
much deliberation perhaps. By the time I recognise them I am way too late.
The attached pricebehaviour confused me.
This example is YM.
First we have an FTT that on first moment did not look like an FTT to me. But
ok, about two bars later I realise it was. Then we have decreasing black volume.
Then black volume increases until 15:00. How should I see this? We have not
arrived at RTL yet. This is the first confusion. For me this is indication of
FBO...
Then price moves sideways while volume decreases quickly. I again suspect we are
in an up channel. Price seems to go thru RTL on decreasing volume. Everything
fine here. Next bar closes two ticks lower on higher volume. The next one even
left of RTL on lower volume. I don't like it. Looks like FBO doesn't it? Next
bar higher volume but price doesn't make it to RTL. I don't like high volume
before breakthru of RTL. Next bar, same high volume but price goes down
significantly. We must be in downtrend again or not??
So why does break RTL on high volume on the next bar?
Same time on ES we were looking for point 3 but right before we also had
increasing red volume.
regards,
Ivo
On The road
On the road traveling at present. Attached is my ES chart. Sorry for the
small size - working off a laptop at present.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from ivob:
The attached pricebehaviour confused me.
This example is YM.
Quote from dkm:
see attached chart. 15:00 was break of RTL. 15:22 was volatility expansion.
Nice moment today:
Waiting for the Point 3 set up at 3:35 PM or so in the downward channel and then
shorting at 1430.50 and covering for 2 points as price reversed.
First time I came late to the day and waited and anticipated the Point 3 and
went in on the trade as it hit lol.
Ivo, it also ties in nicely with the ym gaussians
Here is my ES for today. I found the afternoon a little less clear than I did
this morning. Usually, I find that the mornings are almost always better for me
than the afternoons. This could simply be because of the volume is generally
(but not always) higher between 9:30 to 12:30. Higher volume is easier for me to
read/capture points. This would also leads me to wonder should I just trade in
the mornings? Hmmmm.... afternoons free?
Another thing, I find that the quicker I am to spot/act on an FTT, the better I
do. Of course I'm wrong about a third of the time, but I simply "fix" the
situation in those cases. I think I'm improving on my gaussians, but I still
sometimes get confused in which channel I'm operating in. Overall, it was a good
day.
Quote from WGTrader:
Another thing, I find that the quicker I am to spot/act on an FTT, the better I do. Of course I'm wrong about a third of the time, but I simply "fix" the situation in those cases.
todays ES
10:35 - 10:45 bars don't really work as far as gaussian vol.
I suppose 10:35 and 10:40 could have been considered a HVS and 10:45 was mostly
red. But over all price was falling and red vol was decreasing.
the forgotten chart
Quote from ivob:
The attached pricebehaviour confused me.
This example is YM.
First we have an FTT that on first moment did not look like an FTT to me. But ok, about two bars later I realise it was.
Then we have decreasing black volume. Then black volume increases until 15:00. How should I see this? We have not arrived at RTL yet. This is the first confusion. For me this is indication of FBO...
Then price moves sideways while volume decreases quickly. I again suspect we are in an up channel.
Price seems to go thru RTL on decreasing volume. Everything fine here. Next bar closes two ticks lower on higher volume.
The next one even left of RTL on lower volume. I don't like it. Looks like FBO doesn't it?
Next bar higher volume but price doesn't make it to RTL. I don't like high volume before breakthru of RTL. Next bar, same high volume but price goes down significantly. We must be in downtrend again or not??
Re: On The road
Quote from Spydertrader:
On the road traveling at present. Attached is my ES chart. Sorry for the small size - working off a laptop at present.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Rod
"My destiny will NOT be denied. His will be done." - Patton
Quote from nkhoi:
I guess that main diff is I already have 2 more up channels when you are still working with the higher level RTL
some thoughts on pt 3
This may be obvious to many so please bear with me. I have pondered on why I tend to miss many pt 3's and I have come to the following conclusion. When a pt3 occurs outside the previous channel we have the benefit of having seen (a) the FTT, (b) the RTL BO, (c) the r2r or b2b volume thrust through the RTL, and (d) the formation of the new pt 2 with a retrace on reducing volume as pt 3 is approached. Attention to tapes and the behaviour of volume at this time will frequently identify the new pt 3 in a timely manner. However, when a new pt 3 is formed inside the previous channel then we have the FTT followed by the anticipated reducing volume as price makes its way to the RTL and then we see the RTL BO, volume thrust etc, and I am left thinking "oops" that was a new pt 3 back there. When Spyder first described the Forest Level rules he stipulated that the trader should wait for the break of the RTL. I assume therefore that when a pt 3 forms inside the previous channel that the FL trader should not attempt to trade it. If one chooses to do so, then it will require a little more patience before prv arrives to validate the trade. I hope that makes sense.
Re: some thoughts on pt 3
Quote from dkm:
This may be obvious to many so please bear with me. I have pondered on why I tend to miss many pt 3's and I have come to the following conclusion. When a pt3 occurs outside the previous channel we have the benefit of having seen (a) the FTT, (b) the RTL BO, (c) the r2r or b2b volume thrust through the RTL, and (d) the formation of the new pt 2 with a retrace on reducing volume as pt 3 is approached. Attention to tapes and the behaviour of volume at this time will frequently identify the new pt 3 in a timely manner. However, when a new pt 3 is formed inside the previous channel then we have the FTT followed by the anticipated reducing volume as price makes its way to the RTL and then we see the RTL BO, volume thrust etc, and I am left thinking "oops" that was a new pt 3 back there. When Spyder first described the Forest Level rules he stipulated that the trader should wait for the break of the RTL. I assume therefore that when a pt 3 forms inside the previous channel that the FL trader should not attempt to trade it. If one chooses to do so, then it will require a little more patience before prv arrives to validate the trade. I hope that makes sense.
Re: some thoughts on pt 3
Quote from dkm:
I assume therefore that when a pt 3 forms inside the previous channel that the FL trader should not attempt to trade it. If one chooses to do so, then it will require a little more patience before prv arrives to validate the trade. I hope that makes sense.
__________________
Re: Re: some thoughts on pt 3
Quote from Spydertrader:
Unfortunately, I no longer recall the chart I used to discuss the example.
- Spydertrader
YM make me feel like Mozart. Ok, I will be back next month to cont this
master level class, soon we will be our own guru, cheer!
Chart for this morning.
Trading was not easy. I did not notice the FTT on my chart after the HVS (of
course got out on RTL break). After this FTT I was waiting for pt3 that did not
come although I thought I saw black increasing volume. Then there was this clear
FTT that turned out to be WTF. Just too much jojo today for me.
regards,
Ivo
My ES as of 12:15. Everything was fine until the 11:50 and 11:55 bars. I kept thinking I was seeing an FTT, but the volatility expansion kept on coming. Still managed to do ok, but I guess I was not paying enough attention.
Quote from ivob:
Chart for this morning.
... Then there was this clear FTT that turned out to be WTF. Just too much jojo today for me.
At the open we had falling prices on lower volume. I have a trend line in
place from the previous day to show this up channel, but I think I'm missing
some data.
It looked like it took awhile to get a non taping channel in.
I'm still having problems finding the forest (blue line on my charts) until way
after the fact.
Here is an updated es chart with price scale, it was cut off in previous
post.
-Mike
so far...
Mike, I like your charts.
Quote from Avi 8:
Here is an updated es chart with price scale, it was cut off in previous post.
-Mike
My ES so far. Afternoon was kind of choppy, but I caught a good move from 13:20 to 13:40. Off tomorrow. Have a great weekend everybody!
Quote from WGTrader:
Mike, I like your charts.
ES 29 Mar 07
Got lost around 12:15 and caught up in the "leaves" a few times. The pt 3
between 14:55 and 15:10 took a couple of shots but I was determined not to let
it escape. A positive day.
The bar at 15:20 is an FTT on ES (not much going on at YM at the same time).
After that we expect decreasing red volume before breakout. Instead we get
decreasing green volume until the trendline. So price slightly going up
(actually more sideways, the same at YM). Is this an indication that breakout
will fail or am I seeing ghosts here and we just need to wait and determine the
situation at the trendline?
regards,
Ivo
20070329
Quote from ivob:
The bar at 15:20 is an FTT on ES (not much going on at YM at the same time).
After that we expect decreasing red volume before breakout. Instead we get decreasing green volume until the trendline. So price slightly going up (actually more sideways, the same at YM). Is this an indication that breakout will fail or am I seeing ghosts here and we just need to wait and determine the situation at the trendline?
regards,
Ivo
Quote from Ezzy:
Ivo,
The YM has a bit more info. I wasn't sold on the FTT, and this is a look more at the leaves. At #1, 15:16 YM bar, while it looks like an ftt, we have decreasing volume. It did pick up on the next bar, but looking for more confirmation on a larger resolution. This is still all inside the 15:15 bar on the ES. The 15:20 ES doesn't confirm, it heads up on lower volume as seen on the YM.
The #2 on the YM chart shows the decreasing/low black volume, starting with the 15:20 bar. So what we need now to confirm the ftt (on the leaf) is increasing red. Doesn't happen. Hold. 15:30 on the YM has a little increase in volume. I'm thinking continuation, hold.
Area #3 volume continues to drop off on the YM and ES. We're still in the channels but by now it's very clear we're in a lateral/pennant, CCC even, and there has been no signal for change. Still holding long.
When the breakout happens we have continuation, if you got short after point #1, reverse. Fan your channel or volatility expansion.
So the short version is, wait or hold. Hope that helps - EZ
my afternoon
Quote from ivob:
snip. . . The FTT on ES was quite obvious and I have seen examples in the past were ES had an FTT and YM did not and price behaved as expected (change on ES). Still, SOMETHING has to happen on YM. If it's not an FTT then at least a valid breakout I'd say. FTT is change of sentiment and this does IMO not happen on just one of the two indexes.
As the bar was forming on the ES, almost the entire bar was increasing black, at the end volume wained and it went red. A Split bar. So depending how you drew in your channels ( a steeper unptrend) it looked like an FTT - BUT there was also a volatility expansion. So while it was a hard call, I'm not confident it was/is a clear FTT. More of a dip, but it was a tough one.
So my question is: considering price and volume on ES and YM while price was going to RTL on ES. Could we know BEFORE price touched RTL on ES that RTL wouldn't break? Is the above reasoning the right way to see it?
regards,
Ivo
The good, The bad and the Ugly. My trades for today attached.
The ugly is my last trade of today.
green=long
red=short
Chart for the morning.
Cool day so far! Seems like some people are selling. No one is posting here at
the moment haha, I wonder why. Well I only trade the morning.
regards,
Ivo
oh what a beautiful day.
Quote from Tums:
oh what a beautiful day.
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
ES 30 Mar 07
Hmmmm...
Had to run out at noon for family obligation. I guess I did not miss much.
today's chart with critical sequences highlighted
My YM ES charts from 30th
Change or not change that is the ????
Is this the right answer....?
Quote from Mr_Black:
Is this the right answer....?
Guess it depends on what resolution you are monitoring. No change (i.e.,
continuation) in the forest, while seeing change in the tree. That leads me to
ask: if one is trading at tree level, would he act on a BO after a single bar
closes outside the tape RTL? Or, is that too late, as he should have already
acted on the FTT?
Mr. Black, you seem to possess excellent annotating skills, and a solid
understanding of the PV relationship. May I ask how long you have been studying
the material? Hoping you will be inclined to continue posting your thoughts and
observations. Regards ...
Quote from mephistoII:
That leads me to ask: if one is trading at tree level, would he act on a BO after a single bar closes outside the tape RTL? Or, is that too late, as he should have already acted on the FTT?
Good points, dkm - thanks!
Quote from Mr_Black:
Is this the right answer....?
.
Kudos for the thorough explanation (and the effort), spooz. Very evident that you continue to DO the work ... regards ...
Quote from mephistoII:
Guess it depends on what resolution you are monitoring. No change (i.e., continuation) in the forest, while seeing change in the tree. That leads me to ask: if one is trading at tree level, would he act on a BO after a single bar closes outside the tape RTL? Or, is that too late, as he should have already acted on the FTT?
Mr. Black, you seem to possess excellent annotating skills, and a solid understanding of the PV relationship. May I ask how long you have been studying the material? Hoping you will be inclined to continue posting your thoughts and observations. Regards ...
These questions were posed by Jack in another thread. Seemed like a good idea
to go through them to make sure we have it down. Hope this spurs some good
discussion. Here’s the original post:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...429#post1418429
1. What is the difference between a retrace and a reversal?
2. What is the leading indicator of a trendline BO?
3. How does the price test R or S?
4. How do you know a BO is going to fail.
5. How do you know when a BO has failed?
6. If R is broken where do you look for the new value of S and vice versa.
Below is my view, which may or may not be correct. Someone else may see these
from a different view or situation. I hope to bring those out. What do you think
or see?
1. What is the difference between a retrace and a reversal?
Lower volume on the retrace, increasing volume on the reversal.
2. What is the leading indicator of a trendline BO?
For leading we have an FTT after a retrace, a R2R or B2B shift, or the YM BO
first.
3. How does the price test R or S?
On support there is usually lower volume as it’s approached, thinking new point
3. Usually increasing volume going to R, then a taper off for the retrace. With
increasing volume we go past both points.
4. How do you know a BO is going to fail.
Wow, tough one similar to the question Ivo asked the other day. How can you know
until it happens? Watching the Gaussians?
5. How do you know when a BO has failed?
FBO has volume come in to go opposite the BO. Here I’m thinking of a RTL break
that reverses and gives a new point 3. Or a CCC or lateral/stall BO that
initially breaks out and volume but quickly stalls and a volume increase in the
other direction.
6. If R is broken where do you look for the new value of S and vice versa.
R being broken would be a volatility expansion, we extend the channel for new R.
New support = new point 3 and might require a new trendline.
Very interesting questions. Here's my view.
1. What is the difference between a retrace and a reversal?
Retracement: decreasing volume and then price turning and continuing in the
original direction on increasing volume. (possibly after FTT). Reversal:
decreasing volume and then increasing volume in one direction with possibly
another retracement between. There may also be a retracement of the retracement
etc. but you have to see this on forest level. Then when a main trendline with
the smallest slope (or more correct: the trendline you have on the screen of all
trendlines with the slope that is the closest to zero) is broken that's the
reversal. Fridaymorning at around 11:20 this happened.
2. What is the leading indicator of a trendline BO?
Decreasing volume. Volume getting really low. The trendline does simply not
exist anymore. Price does nothing anymore at trendline. If price meets
resistance there, any resistance, I get suspicious. On YM a BO has already
happened. So the answer is YM and volume.
3. How does the price test R or S?
High volume on both. High volume = coninuation. People agree. (maybe not on
direction but they do agree on price) and things go as they have been going.
Continuation means buying and selling takes place at the same pace. Price stays
in the channel.
4. How do you know a BO is going to fail.
After the FTT you expect certain things to happen. First decreasing non dominant
volume. If we don't get this then something is wrong. If volume at the trendline
is high then trendline will not break or maybe it will break just only for a
little while. Of course at the same time you monitor YM.
5. How do you know when a BO has failed?
When price crosses the trendline back again and bar closes there. If volume
remains low I still believe in it and price may crawl up a little and may break
RTL again (seeming insignificant). However, I would still have closed my
position if I had opened one at FTT.
6. If R is broken where do you look for the new value of S and vice versa.
Look for volume in direction of the trend. Spot the gaussians and draw the
trendlines. The right trendline is our support.
Spyder's last post was March 29th in the morning.
Anybody know where he is?
6 not-so-easy pieces
Quote from Ezzy:
1. What is the difference between a retrace and a reversal?
All reversals begin with a retrace.
The gaussians show sequences of the form RBRB2B or BRBR2R.
In other words decreasing volume is a retrace and increasing volume in the same direction, after a retrace, is a reversal.
2. What is the leading indicator of a trendline BO?
FTT, retrace, PRV+.
3. How does the price test R or S?
In waves. If there is a WALL then the line will hold. You often seen quick retreats from S or R and the bars form spikes as the line holds. If the wall is chipped away enough (after more than one attempt usually) and PRV is high enough or the wall is withdrawn, then the line will be broken.
4. How do you know a BO is going to fail.
PRV fades. A true BO requires PRV+ (frantic covering).
5. How do you know when a BO has failed?
PRV fades (as above), DU (a momentary pause), reverse, back into original channel.
6. If R is broken where do you look for the new value of S and vice versa.
Glib answer: R forms new S, S forms new R. (For good reasons.) Look for Pt 3 at the slope to match the market pace (expect a retrace to Pt3 before resume). Pt3 may well be within the old channel as channels overlap.
Im about 75% sure he's on vacation. I think I remember him posting something
a couple weeks ago saying he was going to the DR soon? I could be wrong but
thats my guess.
Quote from optionpro007:
Spyder's last post was March 29th in the morning.
Anybody know where he is?
He's on a short work/vacation trip. He should be back Monday or Tuesday.
He's heading to the Dominican Republic in a few weeks - not sure exactly when,
but he'll give us a heads up about his depart and return dates before he goes.
-Au
This is a real life sample on 2 min ES chart how 1,2,3 channel develops
...The market sends clear message ....Change ....
Ansers
1. What is the difference between a retrace and a reversal?
A retrace is a decrease in volume in a dominant channel, before resuming in the
same direction ( continuation).
A reversal is change in the dominant channel, Gaussians R2R and B2B forming an
FTT with an increase in volume ( change).
2. What is the leading indicator of a trendline BO?
The leading indicator of a trend line BO is the volume.
3. How does the price test R or S?
The price tests R and S with an increase in volume. If the volume is greater
than the previous peak, these zones will be penetrated by the buyers/sellers.
4. How do you know a BO is going to fail.
The price bar closes back in the operating channel with decreasing volume.
5. How do you know when a BO has failed?
The price goes back in the operating channel with decrease in volume.
6. If R is broken where do you look for the new value of S and vice versa.
Previous resistance becomes support and previous support becomes the new
resistance.
Thank you guys for the replies reg Spyder's absence.
Thanks to those that gave answers. I wanted to comment on #3 and #4 and look
a bit deeper at #3.
3. How does the price test R or S?
There might be a difference in what is considered a test vs a BO; or a
successful vs. unsuccessful test. A test being a return to a trendline
(horizontal or slanted). I saw the reference as to "how" price got there. Could
also mean how it acts once there, or how it reverses.
What happens once it's there?
Is there a difference in lateral trends vs up/down trend?
We know what is required to push past these points.
4. How do you know a BO is going to fail.
I saw this as more of anticipating or even predicting Q. I agree with watching
the volume during the BO. Need it for continuation. If it's not there we can
anticipate failure.
Quote from Ezzy:
3. How does the price test R or S?
What happens once it's there?
Is there a difference in lateral trends vs up/down trend?
Stretch / Squeeze
Stretch / Squeeze
With the arrival of April (and oddly enough, April Fool's day), we move to the
next portion of our
syllabus - Stretch / Squeeze.
What is Stretch / Squeeze (STR/SQU), and how does it work? Why does STR/SQU
create a dangerous situation for those individuals who choose not to use it
correctly? How does one calculate STR/SQU?
To understand STR/SQU, one must first understand how the futures and cash
markets interact. In a general sense, STR/SQU seeks to provide a 'signal for
change' based on
fair
value in relation to the
premium. For Jack's explanation of STR/SQU, see
this post. For a detailed discussion from last year regarding STR/SQU,
review
this discussion.
STR/SQU creates a dangerous situation for a trader who fails to use it correctly
because doing so places the trader on the wrong side of the market. As I
discussed in
this post, a trader on the correct Resolution Level only monitors
change at certain 'Action Points' throughout the trading day. Just as we have
seen with all other tools, we also need to use STR/SQU only at those same
'action points.' In other words, using STR/SQU at the incorrect time can
cause negative results.
To calculate the STR/SQU we use the following formula:
((YM07M -INDU) -'offset')
Several methods exist for calculating the 'offset' value. Some have chosen to
use the 'premium' value from
indexarb.com, while others, choose to simply use the offset created by the
difference between the YM and the INDU to 'zero out' the formula. In this
fashion, one can chart the STR/SQU value over time (using a one minute chart of
Histogram design). Mak has used a third method for STR/SQU comparing the ES to
YM while adding some IF1IF2 logic for good measure.
Determining which method to use
for each individual trader, best results by, determining which method works
within a specific charting platform (or Excel).
For Qcharts users, Place the following formula (copy it exactly) into a
quotesheet, and create a one minute chart of that formula (in Histogram Style).
See attached screen capture.
((YM07M -INDU) -72)
Please, remember to recalculate the 'offset' value (at minimum) prior to the
beginning of each market day. On occasion, one will need to recalculate the
offset intra-day. When you see the STR/SQU values 'skewed' to one direction or
another, you'll know it is time to recalculate.
I calculate the 'offset' value using the close of the 15:58 PM Eastern Time bar
for the YM and the close of the INDU. I recalculate during periods of calm (e.g.
CCC or no price movement), when noticing my histogram skewed away from the zero
line.
In an environment where the futures lead the cash, we say STR/SQU provided a
signal when we see levels exceed +2 (Stretch) or fall below -2 (Squeeze) on our
chart. In other words, STR/SQU provides both signals for continuation
and change. When STR/SQU falls within the -2 to 0 to +2 zone, we say STR/SQU
sits at neutral.
By example, if a trader had just entered short, a 'Squeeze' signal (below -2) on
STR/SQU provides continuation. However, had the same trader entered long,
the same 'Squeeze' signal (below -2) on STR/SQU, provides a signal for change.
Keep in mind, we use STR/SQU only on our 'action points' as determined by
our individual Resolution Level.
To monitor STR/SQU manually, feel free to use
this log file.
O.K. So where do we go from here? Spend some time monitoring STR/SQU through the
day. Learn how it can provide two different signals within the same bar
during periods of High Volatility. Note also, how such a fine level
monitoring (Bug Level) currently sits far beyond our current focus. Take
some notes to 'see' how STR/SQU acts around FTT's, Point Threes and Spike Bars.
In other words, spend some time learning this new tool before working it
into a regular position within your monitoring paradigm.
Lastly, If a trader has not yet spent the appropriate time monitoring the YM and
the ES, or if a trader hasn't yet mastered PRV Volume, Price Channels and
Gaussians, then one should not add STR/SQU until completing the
previously mentioned tasks - and practiced to an appropriate level of
proficiency.
I hope you all find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Can anyone help out regarding mak's prv/str/squ excel app? I have downloaded
the IB version from the link provided earlier in the thread and typed my
username in the appropriate spot. It still tries to run (myusername).exe and
also MYID.exe when i start it. It asks me this about 20 times and then stops,
but no data comes in. I have read through countless pages of discussion
regarding this and I am sure it is something small I am doing wrong but I just
cant figure it out. It would be very helpful if someone could snap out a 'mak's
tool for dummies' instruction list to help get it setup. Sorry to interject this
into the thread but I am assuming there will be alot more people with this
problem....
Thanks in advance
str/squ - TradeStation
Does anyone have the STR/SQU set up in TradeStation? Would you share your eld
and workspace?
REB
Permit me a comment, as I once implemented this idea in NQ. The fundamental problem is that premium rises as price rises, and premium falls as price falls, all very slowly. Therefore your approach of periodically adjusting the offset is weak at best, and at worst masks the more subtle changes of premium on a faster scale that you are looking for. Ultimately I found the whole exercise to be a waste of time, as all it did was reinforce what you can already see happening in price and volume. Used alone, it is an absolute disaster, as it will shake you out of a run that still has legs.
__________________
Hypostomus Plecostomus (Not an alias)
Hypostomus enthusiastically endorses the products and services offered by
E-Signal and Interactive Brokers, and will continue to do so until they pay me
to stop.
Quote from Jander:
Can anyone help out regarding mak's prv/str/squ excel app? I have downloaded the IB version from the link provided earlier in the thread and typed my username in the appropriate spot. It still tries to run (myusername).exe and also MYID.exe when i start it. It asks me this about 20 times and then stops, but no data comes in. I have read through countless pages of discussion regarding this and I am sure it is something small I am doing wrong but I just cant figure it out. It would be very helpful if someone could snap out a 'mak's tool for dummies' instruction list to help get it setup. Sorry to interject this into the thread but I am assuming there will be alot more people with this problem....
Thanks in advance
Has anyone setup the STR/SQU in Ensign? If so, I would appreciate some help.
Quote from hypostomus:
Permit me a comment, as I once implemented this idea in NQ. The fundamental problem is that premium rises as price rises, and premium falls as price falls, all very slowly.
Quote from hypostomus:
Therefore your approach of periodically adjusting the offset is weak at best, and at worst masks the more subtle changes of premium on a faster scale that you are looking for.
Quote from hypostomus:
Ultimately I found the whole exercise to be a waste of time, as all it did was reinforce what you can already see happening in price and volume.
Quote from hypostomus:
Used alone, it is an absolute disaster, as it will shake you out of a run that still has legs.
Quote from Spydertrader:
STR/SQU creates a dangerous situation for a trader who fails to use it correctly because doing so places the trader on the wrong side of the market. As I discussed in this post, a trader on the correct Resolution Level only monitors change at certain 'Action Points' throughout the trading day. Just as we have seen with all other tools, we also need to use STR/SQU only at those same 'action points.' In other words, using STR/SQU at the incorrect time can cause negative results.
__________________
Quote from Jander:
Can anyone help out regarding mak's prv/str/squ excel app? I have downloaded the IB version from the link provided earlier in the thread and typed my username in the appropriate spot. ...
Thanks in advance
Ensign setup
Here is PDF to show how to set up for Ensign. Please PM if you have questions in order to keep thread clean.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Anyone yet with Tradestation indicator of this? I am curious how this looks
but all I can do is chart the Premium. One thing I put on as something that
might give similar clues is I am charting the ES/SPX Prem and I put a vertical
line at fair value premium and the extreme thresholds for BUY and SELL programs
as set up by indexarb.com.
When the premium gets too far ahead of itself and touches the upper threshold,
the ES sells off and same thing on the other side. At the opening the PREM
jumped to ove 12 and the ES had a high of 1434.50 before moving back lower to
1433.25 and sliding lower.
I am going to set this alongside my charts to see if it gives turning point
clues at extreme moves such as opening and long drops or rises. Only risk is
that the market could keep moving against you as the PREM adjusts but the
program trading should occur in large size to prevent that initially.
Otherwise I have not idea how to put the STR/SQU in tradestation lol.
Thanks for the help palli...
Here is the link for the str/squ/prv combo tool
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1046171
What is the offset for this morning?
str squ
68
Does anyone know the INDU symbol for IQ Feed? I did a search on IQ and it resulted in dozens of possibilities.
optioncoach
I'm having trouble replying to your PM. I get "Sorry! You cannot send that
message at the moment because the administrator has specified that you may only
send one message every 60 seconds."
REB
indu.x is what I'm using, seems to work but the offsett seems like it needs adjusting frequently. As the journal proceeds we will see if this is a common issue.
Nice start for this week Hope all of you got this easy trade from 1st hour....
Thanks ticktrade - I believe that's it!
Quote from Mr_Black:
Nice start for this week Hope all of you got this easy trade from 1st hour....
Quote from optioncoach:
Anyone yet with Tradestation indicator of this? I am curious how this looks but all I can do is chart the Premium. One thing I put on as something that might give similar clues is I am charting the ES/SPX Prem and I put a vertical line at fair value premium and the extreme thresholds for BUY and SELL programs as set up by indexarb.com.
When the premium gets too far ahead of itself and touches the upper threshold, the ES sells off and same thing on the other side. At the opening the PREM jumped to ove 12 and the ES had a high of 1434.50 before moving back lower to 1433.25 and sliding lower.
I am going to set this alongside my charts to see if it gives turning point clues at extreme moves such as opening and long drops or rises. Only risk is that the market could keep moving against you as the PREM adjusts but the program trading should occur in large size to prevent that initially.
Otherwise I have not idea how to put the STR/SQU in tradestation lol.
Here's a simple TS indicator to get you started.
Anyone yet with Tradestation indicator of this?
Chart for this morning.
regards,
Ivo
9:25am PDT...
The volitality is tearing me to pieces...
cj...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Greetings guys,
Does anybody know how to get the str/squ indicator working for esignal ?
Thanks!
Quote from optionpro007:
Greetings guys,
Does anybody know how to get the str/squ indicator working for esignal ?
Thanks!
Re: str/squ - TradeStation
Quote from ralphbass:
Does anyone have the STR/SQU set up in TradeStation? Would you share your eld and workspace?
REB
dougcs
Here is the code up and running in TS. Now, how does one use something like
this?
REB
Quote from dkm:
try a 1 min advanced chart with symbol (ym #f - $INDU - 68) - be careful with the spaces....
Here is today's ES
-Mike
Today's ES
04-02-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
04-02-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
S,
I'm still confused over flaws. Do we cover them in depth at some point or have I
missed the memo?
regards,
Doug
Quote from dougcs:
I'm still confused over flaws. Do we cover them in depth at some point or have I missed the memo?
__________________
Spyder if you have a chance, could you please post today's SQR/SQU histogram
pic as you have it.
Mine looks like this which I think is incorrect. (green +2 / red-2)
Thanks!
Quote from optionpro007:
Spyder if you have a chance, could you please post today's SQR/SQU histogram pic as you have it. Mine looks like this which I think is incorrect. (green +2 / red-2)
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
I think I used an offset value of 70 today (I say think because I have already set my offset for tomorrow at 72). Since your values appear skewed slightly to the high side, you may have set your value slightly lower than needed. Try changing to 69 or 70 to see if that value doesn't reset your chart closer to the 'zero' line for you.
- Spydertrader
Quote from optionpro007:
What do you think of it with the change, is it close enough?
__________________
My offset today was -70.
-Mike
Quote from Avi 8:
My offset today was -70.
-Mike
I agree with Spyder that squ/str is best viewed as a histogram. See if you can set your chart that way. Also, due to the spread changing so quickly, it would be difficult for us to compare squ/str charts at the end of the day. The value can change significantly from one second to the next, so depending on datafeed lag and other factors, the value that each of us shows at the end of each 1min bar could appear very different.
Quote from optionpro007:I changed the number as indicated but I think I am doing something wrong because it doesn't look like your snipet. What do you think of it with the change, is it close enough?
Quote from Jander:
Mike great job on your charts, I thought I was looking at Spyders for a second...
If anyone is still interested in a(nother) Str/Sqz Tradestation indicator you
can PM me for the ELD file or I can post a text version here with instructions.
Also Spyder, this should be based on the close of the 1 min. bar?
Thanks
Here's a YM snippet around the time of a sim-trade entry (short) by me this
morning. My timestamp is prolly off +/- a few seconds due to the fact that my
data is timestamped locally (as opposed to the feed's server).
Also, I was glued to the ES when this occured and only really noticed this
snippet during replay, post-market close. In other words, the ES got me in. But
I thought I'd share this replay snippet. My replay is only accurate to the
second (not milliseconds). So, the replay could be a bit off from RT, I dunno.
Enough caveats...
The bottom pane shows my RT YM Premium calculation, using 2 min bars. I know,
the instructions are to use 1 min bars but I like my layout of price + volume +
premium wth vertical alignment. So, I may have to change this at some point. The
green dash in each bar shows where the Premium closes. I have no idea if this is
useful info (knowing prem bar close) at this point.
Currently, I do not bother myself with Fair Value (the "offset"). If I type one
in, the pane is very similar to a histogram. But I've noticed that "my brain"
does a decent job of determining what is Neutral. Time will tell if I need to
bother with Fair Value or not.
One last Premium detail, the thin blue horizontal line displays at the current
Premium (STR), Discount (SQU), or Neutral at all times (assuming I can "see it",
lol). As shown in this snippet, what does your brain tell you? SQU, right? No
Fair Value/offset needed. I'm NOT saying to do something different than what has
been instructed, I'm just showing my layout. Just food for thought and
discussion.
The other higher-level thing to look at in this snippet is my PRV blue "ghost
bar". This might be a good example of capturing increasing red, based on PRV,
very early in a bar. My PRV is loosely physics-based, so I believe my PRV upon
bar open is reasonable. I factor in the pace coming in to new bars and never
reset PRV volume to zero. But this is a bit OT.
spooz
As I've had a few requests here is the code in a text format. You should be
able to copy it directly into t-station as a new indicator.
input: offset (0);
var: Spread (0), STRSQZ (0);
Spread = Close data1 - Close data2;
STRSQZ = Spread - offset;
Plot1 (STRSQZ, "STRSQZ");
If Plot1 > 2 then setplotcolor (1, yellow);
If Plot1 < -2 then setplotcolor (1, cyan);
plot2 (0) ;
plot3 (2);
plot4 (-2);
setplotcolor (2, darkblue);
setplotcolor (3, white);
setplotcolor (4, white);
You will need to set up a chart with @YM as data 1 and $INDU as data 2. You can
then make the price invisible if you like so that all you have left is the
indicator. (symbol format, style tab, check box"make price data invisible") Go
to format indicator and put the offset amount into (input tab, value) then go to
style tab and set STRSQZ to histogram and plot 2 thru 4 to line. then set the
colors to your liking and under the scale tab put the indicator in subgraph 2.
Then shrink subgraph 1 down to nothing in the chart window. That should do it.
-jc
Quote from Jander:
Thanks for the help palli...
Here is the link for the str/squ/prv combo tool
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1046171
For esignal users, here is an efs that will plot str/squ in histogram format.
After loading the efs, right click on the study pane entitled "... Add symbol",
select edit studies, in the Value box for Symbol1 type:
ym #f - $INDU - 68
The value 68 is just an example offset and should be adjusted accordingly. Be
careful with the spaces. The histogram plots the close of each interval e.g. 1
min. The histogram time interval will depend upon the interval of the chart, so
you will need to open up an advanced chart with a 1 min interval. Now I just
need to be able to make some sense of it
Thanks dkm.
I am not to familiar with programming esignal software.
What does efs stand for (electronic file system?) and how does one load an efs
into esignal (not the same as creating an advance chart I imagine).
=)
P.S. I would PM you but I feel others might need this info also.
Quote from optionpro007:
What does efs stand for (electronic file system?)
Quote from optionpro007:
and how does one load an efs into esignal=)
Example attached
I have to leave early so here's my chart for the morning already.
Trading was no problem. I was looking for a point three up because of the first
three bars on YM (increasing volume). Was this the right thinking? Well, as
price went up I guess it was.
Does anyone know why price went up so quickly at the 10:05 bar (any news?)
The FTT on the 7th bar on YM surprised me somewhat but it was not supported by
anything on ES and after this FTT price was just going sideways instead of down.
This is something I am learning: there is always conflicting information but we
need to use information that has to be in line with other information from the
instruments we use. If it's not supported by other information then something is
wrong. Interesting stuff.
Also today I used a tip that Bundlemaker gave in his video. If you think you see
something in bar A wait for bar B to finish. I use it for YM as well as ES. This
helped me a lot today and I will continue to do so because I pull the trigger
far too easily.
Another one of my problems: For example I think I "know" price will go up
because of perceived market information. Then when it takes longer than I
thought or there is a bit of conflicting information afterwards I give up on the
idea instead of waiting for the signal (pt 3). Anyone else has this problem? I
guess it has to do with confidence and patience.
Occasionally I found stretch / squeeze helpfull but forgot to watch it at times
when I should have.
regards,
Ivo
ivo-
Pending Home sales was released at 10:00am today.
I look here for my info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Notice today at 4pm - Motor vehicle sales will be released. Something to watch
for this afternoon on the ES.
-Mike
My charts so far...
What a weird day. Managed to miss the pt 3 at 10:30 and then made too many mistakes the rest of the day.
Quote from Avi 8:
ivo-
Pending Home sales was released at 10:00am today.
I look here for my info: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Notice today at 4pm - Motor vehicle sales will be released. Something to watch for this afternoon on the ES.
-Mike
ES for today. Can you say 'lateral'?
-Mike
Today's ES
04-03-2007 ES Chart. Nice laterals.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
04-03-2007 YM Chart. Nice big spike.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
04-03-2007 ES Chart. Nice laterals.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Churn2Learn:
Hi Spydertrader. I had a quick question on today's ES. You have a 1-3 forming right on my #3 at 11:30am. You didn't have a 1-3 as indicated on the picture starting at 10:30am. I was wondering if that's considered a 1-3 too or is that wrong? Thanks.
__________________
Spydertrader,
Today was tough going into the low volume session after 11:00. Lot of smaller
channels and late realization of a larger lateral. Also had some trouble reading
the gaussians in low volume - 'cause we really didn't get a dominant until
around 13:00.
Any suggestions on handling these periods?
Regards - EZ
Quote from Ezzy:
Spydertrader,
Today was tough going into the low volume session after 11:00. Lot of smaller channels and late realization of a larger lateral. Also had some trouble reading the gaussians in low volume - 'cause we really didn't get a dominant until around 13:00.
Any suggestions on handling these periods?
Regards - EZ
Quote from Ezzy:
Any suggestions on handling these periods?
Quote from ivob:
I also have a question related to this. I notice when there's more lateral movement the 1-2-3 setups come faster after eachother than when there's more direction. Is this something you can confirm?
__________________
WOW..how does someone come on board to this thread without having to read
over 400 pages? I used to follow Jack years ago when he was promoting the "slope
of the pairs" on the 30 minute time frame. Not sure if he stiill uses it...Does
he still have a pony tail?
Pitbull
I was lucky, I started reading in mid January and there was only like 50
pages to get caught up on
Quote from pitbulltrader:
WOW..how does someone come on board to this thread without having to read over 400 pages? I used to follow Jack years ago when he was promoting the "slope of the pairs" on the 30 minute time frame. Not sure if he stiill uses it...Does he still have a pony tail?
Pitbull
Quote from Spydertrader:
Anytime you find things confusing, head to the sidelines until you can figure out the 'right' side of the market. If you have reversed a few times before having the realization the market had entered into an HVS, go back to determine which mode the market signaled prior to the confusion, locate a point where re-entry makes sense, and continue onward. Once we add the DOM and tic charts later in the year, trading within the HVS (or any lateral of sufficient range) becomes much easier.
In order to capture the smaller, shorter trends within a market lateral, one would need to move down into finer levels of resolution. As such, change occurs on a more rapid pace. Your observations with respect to today's market action mirror the same activity occurring normally on a much faster fractal.
- Spydertrader
Trading today did not have the volume for beginner method traders after about
11:15am until 1:15pm.
Beginner method needs around 9000-10,000 contracts on a bar, to insure
sufficient volatility to profit.
Beginner volume dryed up again around 2:30pm and lasted for another hour. I
imagine this gets worse in the summer.
-Mike
Quote from Avi 8:
Trading today did not have the volume for beginner method traders after about 11:15am until 1:15pm.
Beginner method needs around 9000-10,000 contracts on a bar, to insure sufficient volatility to profit.
Beginner volume dryed up again around 2:30pm and lasted for another hour. I imagine this gets worse in the summer.
-Mike
Quote from Ezzy:
When Jack originally went through the ES trading, begining level traders were to sideline during dry-up or as we went into CCC. But I don't recall Spydertrader mentioning that or a 9,000 cut off, as this is a slightly different road to the same place.
At this level it is much easier trading with more volume and volatility. I'd expect more days like this as we get closer to Summer, so maybe it's a good idea to consider that - sidelining on low volume until the afternoon BO.
Regards - EZ
Spyder, I have a couple of Q's. I realize this is bug level stuff but I would like your reaction to this snapshot of this am's stretch/squeeze. At approximately 10:02 when the YM and ES shot up the stretch/squeeze had a negative spike. Was this an aboration? Does the stretch/squeeze always or sometimes follow the same direction as price? Is there an average amount of times that you would change the premium amount in a day? If today is an average example, it seems that it's wider in the morning and afternoon and smaller during the lunchtime drift. Is this correct? Or should I have some chocolate covered ants and not worry about it?
Quote from Audkid1:
Spyder, I have a couple of Q's. I realize this is bug level stuff but I would like your reaction to this snapshot of this am's stretch/squeeze. At approximately 10:02 when the YM and ES shot up the stretch/squeeze had a negative spike. Was this an aboration? Does the stretch/squeeze always or sometimes follow the same direction as price? Is there an average amount of times that you would change the premium amount in a day? If today is an average example, it seems that it's wider in the morning and afternoon and smaller during the lunchtime drift. Is this correct? Or should I have some chocolate covered ants and not worry about it?
Quote from Spydertrader:
O.K. So where do we go from here? Spend some time monitoring STR/SQU through the day. Learn how it can provide two different signals within the same bar during periods of High Volatility. Note also, how such a fine level monitoring (Bug Level) currently sits far beyond our current focus. Take some notes to 'see' how STR/SQU acts around FTT's, Point Threes and Spike Bars. In other words, spend some time learning this new tool before working it into a regular position within your monitoring paradigm.
Later, when one has mastered
the various levels of resolution, trading at the bug level (with the appropriate
tools) permits the trader to trade within the bars.__________________
Audkid1,
Thanks for digging up that post. Puts pace considerations on the table.
Also wanted to mention for Qchart users to watch their sqz/str charts and make
sure they are running on time. Because the INDU opens after the YM, some might
experience a problem with the chart running behind time and not reading properly
if you start Qcharts before the INDU opens at 9:30.
If this happens there are several things that can help:
Close and Reload the chart
Change time frame and then back
Clicking the "all session" box
One of these steps should reset the bars so the current ones are compared. Also
leave a space on both sides of the "-" in front of the premium as some versions
have issues with that.
Regards - EZ
Does anyone know if we can do the Stretch / Squeeze chart with QuoteTracker
and if so, how to do it?
Thanks
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from Lightbody:
Does anyone know if we can do the Stretch / Squeeze chart with QuoteTracker and if so, how to do it?
Thanks
For a quick and dirty look at inflection points you can also peek at the uptick/downtick on the dow 30 stocks,i.e., the cash YM. If your quote screen allows you to set a color field (background,text, or foreground) based on uptick/downtick then you can get a good feel for turning points by watching the overall color of the quote panel. It reminds me of watching a school of bait fish. You can see when the entire school has suddenly switched direction.
Chart for the morning. Hard to trade today so far.
I must say that stretch squeeze does give clarity and confirmation on important
bars. Sometimes it invalidates what you're thinking and sometimes it confirms.
Sometimes there are several signals in a row on important moments. It's very
important not to check it too often though. Only on important bars.
currently I am long.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
I must say that stretch squeeze does give clarity and confirmation on important bars. Ivo
Offset
dkm,
What is your offset? Mine looks a lot like yours but I cannot see the
correlation either.
REB
My charts so far ...Had a nice AHa moment ....@ 1447.50
Quote from dkm:
I cannot see the correlation so far. I am wondering if I have this histogram set up correctly.
__________________
Continuation or Change
Can you help me fill in the blanks?
Continuation / Change
Increasing Black volume with increasing price = Continuation
Increasing Black volume with decreasing price =
Decreasing Black volume with increasing price =
Decreasing Black volume with decreasing price =
Increasing Red volume with increasing price = Change
Increasing Red volume with decreasing price =
Decreasing Red volume with increasing price =
Decreasing Red volume with decreasing price =
Re: Continuation or Change
Quote from ralphbass:
Can you help me fill in the blanks?
__________________
continuation - change
Not having the answers is not learning it at all.
Quote from ivob:
Sometimes it invalidates what you're thinking and sometimes it confirms.
Re: Continuation or Change
Quote from ralphbass:
Can you help me fill in the blanks?
Continuation / Change
Increasing Black volume with increasing price = Continuation
Increasing Black volume with decreasing price =
Decreasing Black volume with increasing price =
Decreasing Black volume with decreasing price =
Increasing Red volume with increasing price = Change
Increasing Red volume with decreasing price =
Decreasing Red volume with increasing price =
Decreasing Red volume with decreasing price =
Re: continuation - change
Quote from ralphbass:
Not having the answers is not learning it at all.
This has been posted a couple times, it may help you.
I suggest reading the entire thread--you probably missed some stuff.
Quote from optioncoach:
That makes it no more useful than a guess I would think.
Quote from optioncoach:
Will still have to look at this STR/SQU but so far I just see a premium/fair value measure.
__________________
Is there any way for an IB customer using quotetracker to get STR/SQU set up?
Quote from dkm:
I cannot see the correlation so far. I am wondering if I have this histogram set up correctly.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Yeah I was joking with Ivob since he said sometimes it validates and
sometimes it invalidates lol. If it is sometimes right and sometimes wrong then
its a flip. I am going to add it to my charts and simply look to see if there
are consistent patterns on trend reversals or FTTs at the Forrest and Tree
level.
Quote from Spydertrader:
If STR/SQU invalidates incorrect thinking and validates correct thinking is it still a guess?
Quote from Pr0crast:
Is there any way for an IB customer using quotetracker to get STR/SQU set up?
Quote from optioncoach:
Yeah I was joking with Ivob since he said sometimes it validates and sometimes it invalidates lol. If it is sometimes right and sometimes wrong then its a flip. I am going to add it to my charts and simply look to see if there are consistent patterns on trend reversals or FTTs at the Forrest and Tree level.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from Spydertrader:
1. I currently have my 'offset' value set at 65
- Spydertrader
Quote from dkm:
I cannot see the correlation so far. I am wondering if I have this histogram set up correctly.
My ES for today. I found the morning difficult, but after 12:00 things were much clearer.
Y eah I am going to add it at the bottom and line it up with key moves and
see what patterns emerge. Studying it myself is the only way to see if it is
useful for me or just added noise.
Quote from makosgu:
Initially, just watch for the strong stuff... This is like +/- 5 territory... You can actually profile str/squ for strength just like volume...
VDU is -2<=X<=+2
You move out from there...
ES for today.
-Mike
Quote from makosgu:
The problem with esignal is that it does not commit the extremes to memory.
Today's ES
04-04-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from ivob:
Sometimes it invalidates what you're thinking and sometimes it confirms.
Quote from optioncoach:
That makes it no more useful than a guess I would think.
Today's YM
04-04-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from optioncoach:
Y eah I am going to add it at the bottom and line it up with key moves and see what patterns emerge. Studying it myself is the only way to see if it is useful for me or just added noise.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from dkm:
I previously had an ohlc equivalent which did show the extremes then I changed it to histogram. I am nowhere near ready to use this tool so I am putting it on the back burner. My sim results continue to be very disapppointing.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Spyder, Mak. A question about str/sq.
Do you relate bars to previous bars? I mean , is there something like "Mmm.
right now str/sq is +3 and also last bar and the bar before that it was > + 2
and it doesn't go down much".
Can conclusions be drawn from str/sq values over several bars or should we just
look at the "now"? So is there something like a trend in str/sq?
Also I notice when price volatility increases str/sq bar length also seems to
increase.
regards.
Ivo
I have a few initial questions on str/sq too if you guys don't mind. These
are pointed a little more at understanding what we're looking at rather than
just the raw application of it.
First, are we working on the assumption that futs always lead cash, or is there
room in the analysis for the thought that cash sometimes leads? For example
around 3:02-3:05 EST today the YM pushed down a few points and I had squeeze
values of -2 to -3 using an offset of 66. It was like the futs tried to push
cash down, couldn't and then both moved up about 15 points with very little str.
In this case I would say cash was more in control.
Second question is when we see values worth noting, does it matter which one,
cash or futs, brings us back to neutral? For example, in an extended move up we
may see futs str, then cash follow and bring us back to neutral, str again and
cash moves up again to bring us back to neutral. Close to the end of a move I've
noticed futs str, but cash doesn't follow and we return to neutral with futs
backing off a bit. Is this an important sequence or am I making things up in my
head?
Along the same line as previous question, Often we'll get a str / squ value big
enough to spark an index arb. program. Considering an arb program cares not
about direction and throws an equal amount of money at both sides I've
previously looked at these times as moments where the market shows it's hand.
One side of the divergence, cash or futs, will have more conviction than the
other and hold its ground. So in the context of this journal is it correct to
view the side that stays put as the right side and the side that gives up ground
to return str/sq to neutral the weaker side?
I like others am having trouble calibrating for the value to use to "zero"
the premium.
THis is a Tradestation indicator that uses a 150 bar average value. Don't know
if it is any better than eyeballing the value, but I'm watching it as well as
doing the intraday recalibrations.
[LegacyColorValue = true];
input: YM(c data1), INDU(c data2);
var: intrabarpersist bn(0), intrabarpersist diff(0), intrabarpersist hi(0),
intrabarpersist lo(0), ma20(0), sdev(0);
var: d2(0), UBB(0), LBB(0), str1("L");
diff = ym - indu ;
ma20 = average(diff, 150);
{sdev = stddev(diff, 150);
ubb = sdev;
lbb = -sdev;
}
ubb = 2;
lbb = -2;
d2 = diff - ma20;
if time<>time[1] and bn <> barnumber then begin
bn = barnumber; hi =-9990; lo = 9999;
end;
if bn=barnumber then begin
hi = maxlist(hi, d2); lo = minlist(lo, d2);
end;
if d2 > 0 then begin
setplotcolor(1, darkgreen);
end;
if d2 < 0 then begin
setplotcolor(1, darkred);
end;
setplotwidth(1,1);
if time>=0830 then begin
if d2>= ubb then begin
setplotwidth(1,power(d2,0.6)); setplotcolor(1,green);
alert(symbol+" +2 Str / Squ");
end;
if d2 <= lbb then begin
setplotwidth(1,power(absvalue(d2),0.6));
setplotcolor(1,red);
alert(symbol + " -2Str / Squ");
end;
end;
plot1(d2,"Dif");
plot2(0);
plot3(ubb,"UBB");plot4(lbb, "LBB");
plot5(hi,"Hi");plot6(lo,"LO");
{
if lastbaronchart then begin
str1 = "avgPrem= "+NumToStr(ma20, 2);
value11 = Text_New(Date, time-5, h+1, str1);
value1 = Text_SetColor(value11, cyan);
end;
}
If you know how to read this code, you can see that I'm playing around with
using standard deviations instead of the +/- 2 value.
Too soon to see if it helps.
Doug
Quote from Bearbelly:
No way to do it that I know of. I have been trying to get someone to code an excel app to do it but so far no takers. Maks excel works but I would rather have the histogram.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
STR / SQU Questions
Quote from ivob:
Do you relate bars to previous bars?
Quote from ivob:
Can conclusions be drawn from str/sq values over several bars or should we just look at the "now"? So is there something like a trend in str/sq?
Quote from ivob:
Also I notice when price volatility increases str/sq bar length also seems to increase.
Quote from C99:
First, are we working on the assumption that futs always lead cash, or is there room in the analysis for the thought that cash sometimes leads?
Quote from C99:
Second question is when we see values worth noting, does it matter which one, cash or futs, brings us back to neutral?
Quote from C99:
Is this an important sequence or am I making things up in my head?
Quote from C99:
Along the same line as previous question, Often we'll get a str / squ value big enough to spark an index arb. program. Considering an arb program cares not about direction and throws an equal amount of money at both sides I've previously looked at these times as moments where the market shows it's hand. One side of the divergence, cash or futs, will have more conviction than the other and hold its ground. So in the context of this journal is it correct to view the side that stays put as the right side and the side that gives up ground to return str/sq to neutral the weaker side?
__________________
Spydertrader,
If you dont mind, i have a quick question for you concerning bars that take out
both a new high and new low to the previous bar. Are there any rules associated
with them? Do they signal anything with any consistency?
4/4 ES bar at 15:30 is an example. Thanks!
I am trading FTTS barely profitably on SPI200 end of day charts. I have a
problem in that when there's an extended rally in one direction i keep on seeing
alot of FTT'S which are almost always wrong.
This only occurs when day to day volatiilty is low and the index just slowly
marches upwards at about 0.5% per day. its infuriating. Ive attached an example
of the chart for you guys too look at
thanks
Quote from Spydertrader:
1. I currently have my 'offset' value set at 65
- Spydertrader
Quote from terminator:
I am trading FTTS barely profitably on SPI200 end of day charts. I have a problem in that when there's an extended rally in one direction i keep on seeing alot of FTT'S which are almost always wrong.
This only occurs when day to day volatiilty is low and the index just slowly marches upwards at about 0.5% per day. its infuriating. Ive attached an example of the chart for you guys too look at
thanks
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from terminator:
I am trading FTTS barely profitably on SPI200 end of day charts. I have a problem in that when there's an extended rally in one direction i keep on seeing alot of FTT'S which are almost always wrong.
This only occurs when day to day volatiilty is low and the index just slowly marches upwards at about 0.5% per day. its infuriating. Ive attached an example of the chart for you guys too look at
thanks
offset calculation
Quote from Tums:
The number from indexarb yesterday was 70.10. How did you arrive at 65?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Several methods exist for calculating the 'offset' value. Some have chosen to use the 'premium' value from indexarb.com, while others, choose to simply use the offset created by the difference between the YM and the INDU to 'zero out' the formula.
__________________
Quote from bundlemaker:
I suspect part of your problem is understanding what resolution level you are on and then being sure to apply the correct rule set. The 2 ftt's you have marked are indeed ftt's of DOMINANT TRAVERSES. What comes after a dominanat? NON-DOM. Then you get to monitor what happens at RTL. At a big forest level of trading, you woudn't be exiting except at a RTL break, which you didn't get until later.
Also, I note that you are missing a shallower channel staring from the beginning of the up move.
Finally, I believe that correctly understanding and applying gaussians would hellp you understand dom/non-dom and keep you on correct resolution level. In order to do that you must use color coded (black and red) volume histogram bars.
Hope this helps. Your difficulty appears to be a common one (previously experienced by myself for sure) but one that is surmountable with proper effort and attention to detail.
Quote from The Swordsman:
If you dont mind, i have a quick question for you concerning bars that take out both a new high and new low to the previous bar. Are there any rules associated with them? Do they signal anything with any consistency? 4/4 ES bar at 15:30 is an example.
__________________
Quote from terminator:
with the volume gaussians i cant seem to get tradestation to color them in (running 2000i). wondering if anyone has the script for a paintbar function to color them in. If any of you guys here have that that'd be greatly appreciated
In addition set the Average input on the Volume Avg indicator to 1 period and
you get a nice line across the the tops of the volume bars and the peaks and
valleys and Gaussies really stand out.
Quote from Tums:
You should have an indicator named VolumeAvg. It paints the bar in colours.
In case you don't have it, here's one attached.
edit: I have uploaded a new attachment. This version draws 4 lines for PRV.
Quote from makosgu:
The problem with esignal is that it does not commit the extremes to memory. I haven't done the catching up on the thread yet but in gleening through your indicator, it appears as though the programing does not store the extremes. In a sense, you want to be plotting just like a HLC bar. That means, you always want to be plotting the MAX NEUTRAL OFFSET of the bar/fractal, the MIN NEUTRAL OFFSET of the bar/fractal, and the CURRENT NEUTRAL OFFSET of the bar/fractal. Your indicator is missing the extremes and appears to plot the NOW which is fine if your sweeping is on top of the ball. However, if your sweeping does not efficiently spot the data, you will have missed the datapoint/signal, hence the need to capture MIN/MAX/NOW. The extremes are important because they tell you how prevalent the upcoming ES move will be...
I've been following since the end of Jan. Ok, for all you esignal users out
there. I called esignal about the above issue and below is their response:
vjr-
I believe it does not matter the time interval. It will always clip the max H/L.
-Mike
Quote from Avi 8:
vjr-
I believe it does not matter the time interval. It will always clip the max H/L.
-Mike
Quote from vjr:
...
Ok, the issue of not recording Max H/L on the 1 min chart can be fixed if you use a 2 min chart. So my question to Spydertrader is can we use the 2 min chart to help us slow sweepers to see extreme moves?
Thanks
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
STR / SQU 2 minute?
Quote from vjr:
Ok, the issue of not recording Max H/L on the 1 min chart can be fixed if you use a 2 min chart. So my question to Spydertrader is can we use the 2 min chart to help us slow sweepers to see extreme moves?
__________________
Re: STR / SQU 2 minute?
Quote from Spydertrader:
While discussing several topics with Jack (in his kitchen),
- Spydertrader [/B]
Re: STR / SQU 2 minute?
Quote from Spydertrader:
While discussing several topics with Jack (in his kitchen), he noticed my display and instructed me to change the STR / SQU to the one minute time frame.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: STR / SQU 2 minute?
Quote from Bearbelly:
I suppose hes a great cook too.
__________________
I can shed some light on the esignal calcs. It uses the 1 min O,H,L,C of each series to calculate the spread. Spread open is O1-O2, spread H is H1-H2, spread L is L1-L2 and spread C is C1-C2. Because the H and L can occur at any time in the bar, the two H values and two L values used to calculate the spread H and L can be values that occurred at different times in the bar. So for instruments actively traded, the spread O and C are reasonably accurate while the H and L can be either under or overstated. I trade other spreads actively and this is one of the main reasons I also run Neoticker. It can be set to evaluate the spread at 1 sec intervals and build OHLC bars from that timeseries and thus the H and L are much more accurate. In esignal, the realtime values are correct, but a refresh of the chart can produce different numbers than that which happened realtime. Hope that helps.
ES for today. Have a good weekend everyone.
-Mike
My ES for today. Good day except for a slip-up around 11:35 when I thought I
was long when I was actually short
Looking forward to adding the Str/Squ tool. I've just been just monitoring
(using MAK's) tool for now. Not sure yet if I'm going to modify it to create a
histogram. I understand that Str/Squ only is useful at the action points (RTL)
but I would think that "seeing" where the Str/Squ has been might be helpful. Of
course, I do not have any experience with this tool yet to know if that would be
useful or not. Have a great Easter weekend everyone!
Today's ES
04-05-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
04-05-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Re: STR / SQU 2 minute?
Quote from Bearbelly:
I suppose hes a great cook too.
Quote from Tums:
You should have an indicator named VolumeAvg. It paints the bar in colours.
In case you don't have it, here's one attached.
edit: I have uploaded a new attachment. This version draws 4 lines for PRV.
My chart for 04/05... Have Good Weekend All
Quote from Channels for Building Wealth Document:
The stretch and squeeze of the offset between the cash and index of the Dow Jones
industrials may be used as the direction leading indicator of price movement of the
Standard and Poor’s e-mini (ESXX). Depending upon which value is greatest (cash or
index) the stretch and squeeze means; the opposite or the same direction respectively.
As an example, use a long term positive market orientation. This means the natural
offset of the index is greater than the value of the cash. The DJXX and YMXX indexes
are traded by “smart money” and as a consequence the “smart money” moves in
advance of the cash and in advance of the ESXX standard and Poor’s e-mini. This
means that just before the ES advances there is a “stretch in the INDU and DJXX offset.
This is a vector (directional) leading indicator. The extent of the stretch is a measure of
the pending intensity of the move that is beginning. The stretch then fades into a normal
offset value as the dominant traverse continues.
__________________
Hi Spyder - thanks for pulling this out for us.
snip: "This means the natural offset of the index is greater than the value of
the cash."
To be honest, I've yet to give our latest tool a close inspection, as I don't
feel ready for it, but that's neither here nor there. I am confused about the
terminology, tho. From the above snip, does "the natural offset of the index"
mean the same thing as 'fair value' or 'premium'? And, additionally, does "the
value of the cash" represent the realtime numerical value created within the
expression [(YM-$INDU) - Fair Value] ? Thank you ...
Quote from mephistoII:
From the above snip, does "the natural offset of the index" mean the same thing as 'fair value' or 'premium'? And, additionally, does "the value of the cash" represent the realtime numerical value created within the expression [(YM-$INDU) - Fair Value] ? Thank you ...
Quote from mephistoII:
Hi Spyder - thanks for pulling this out for us.
snip: "This means the natural offset of the index is greater than the value of the cash."
To be honest, I've yet to give our latest tool a close inspection, as I don't feel ready for it, but that's neither here nor there. I am confused about the terminology, tho. From the above snip, does "the natural offset of the index" mean the same thing as 'fair value' or 'premium'? And, additionally, does "the value of the cash" represent the realtime numerical value created within the expression [(YM-$INDU) - Fair Value] ? Thank you ...
Quote from jack hershey:
...
The way money is made is to be able to take as great an advantage of what is unfolding as possible.
We want to carefully thread our way along. Knowing that the equilibrium is there and absolutely having the support and comfort of knowing this is our forte.
...
what scale do you guys use for your volume bars? linear or semi log?
Linear scale - horizontal rays (color coded as noted) overlayed in the vol
region at the following values:
Red line - 2500 contracts
Blue lines - 4500 and 7000 cts levels
Green lines - 9000 and 19,000 cts levels
Quote from ktmexc20:
Like a Viterbi?
getting into the volume gaussian analysis as recommended to me earlier by
bundlemaker. Just wanna check up whether ive learn't it correctly.
When in an up channel the volume bars should be increasing Black for dominant
traverse and decreasing red for non dom traverses.
When in down channel volume should be increasing red in dom traverse and
decreasing black in non-dom traverse.
I am confusing regarding FTTS. i have two pictures that i've posted up from
earlier posts regarding FTTS.
In the file "FTT gaussian" the b2b forms after the FTT.
In the file "gaussian" the R2R forms at the same time as the FTT. This would
imply that the FTT in a down channel will have a b2b that forms at the same time
as the FTT.
what is supposed to be the correct formation on an FTT? from my charts i can see
b2b forming before FTTs and B2Bs forming after FTTs so i just end up confused as
hell.
heres the other file
Terminator,
I just reviewed both files you attached and I don't see what you do, but my
perspective may not be the same as yours.
Here is the sequence that is ideal, keeping in mind that ideal is just that. The
real world offers varying tones to the palette.
You get FTT and then, while price traverses from FTT back to then current RTL,
volume will be decreasing just as usual for a non-dominant. Then, the RTL will
b/o, and increasing volume will be seen as a retrace (non-dom traverse)
transforms into a reversal (dominant in new direction, also known as "change").
My hunch is that the two different b2b (or r2r) that you see is because you're
looking at a lower resolution than full forest level. Keep this in mind: while
the ideal picture is each bar in the first half of a r2r (for example) is a red
price bar with a volume histogram that is sequentially lower in value, this
rarely if ever happens. Flaws occur and sometimes things just aren't ideal. Bar
to bar or PRV is not where you need to be to see the forest level change in the
biggest perspective. You may have some black bars mixed in, the bars probably
won't be sequentially lower. You may get a spike somewhere in the middle. None
of that changes the overall effect of the b2b.
In order to "see" the overall effect, you need to do one thing: match the number
of price bars in the traverse to the number of bars in the histogram you are
referencing for determining increasing or decreasing volume.
This is a gross process. No sophisitication or delicateness is involved. I know
first hand how easy it is to NOT see what you can't see. Looking back, I can't
believe how stubborn my eyes were. Once you get it, you'll say to yourself, "how
the hell did I miss this", it's that obvious (once you see it
)
Hope this helps.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
is the FTT supposed to always occur at or near a high volume bar? Its just
that i keep on finding that my FTTs always are at or near a record volume bar,
it is normal?
thanks and happy easter
My ES for today.
Quote from terminator:
is the FTT supposed to always occur at or near a high volume bar? Its just that i keep on finding that my FTTs always are at or near a record volume bar, it is normal?
thanks and happy easter
Today's ES Chart
04-09-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
04-09-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
just back from Carnival Cruise, my first day of str/squ, I used indexarb
67.55
Here's my ES chart for today. Not all the annotations are in. Had a little trouble on some of the gaussians around the open and midday. Interesting how everyones charts are always similar, but different, even though we all look for the same points.
I wonder why the period from 1330 to 1400 was stretching while the market was running down?
Quote from Bearbelly:
I wonder why the period from 1330 to 1400 was stretching while the market was running down?
Quote from nkhoi:
I reload and get diff pic that show squ during that time.
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
04-09-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Depends on your offset, I used 70 today. It was in the neutral range most of
the day. Most signals were just a little outside the range, kinda weak.
12:40 - 12:50 was the strongest signal. I hesitate to call it a signal because
it's another tool to watch. "Signal" tends to indicate time to act, and we use
more than one tool for decisions.
Regards - EZ
Quote from Bearbelly:
I wonder why the period from 1330 to 1400 was stretching while the market was running down?
Qcharts and Squeeze Stretch
Quote from nkhoi:
I reload and get diff pic that show squ during that time.
nkhoi,
Quote from nkhoi:
I reload and get diff pic that show squ during that time.
Spooz, this comment sounds like you are calculating the offset rather than manually setting it? If so do you mind describing your method for doing so. Thanks
Quote from spooz_trader1:The best I can tell using hindsight, my Fair Value (Offset) at 14:00 was 69.69.
Re: Qcharts and Squeeze Stretch
Quote from Ezzy:
To check and make sure nothing screwy is going on I run a tab with (YM-INDU) to track the raw premium. With that I can tell if something's off, and it's nice to have if you need to reset the premium during the day. .
EZ [/B]
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from optionpro007:
If you have a minute could you elaborate on your thought process or trades taken as the CCC formed around 10:30/10:40?
__________________
Hey txuk,
Quote from txuk:
Spooz, this comment sounds like you are calculating the offset rather than manually setting it? If so do you mind describing your method for doing so. Thanks
Back to the Dominican Republic
__________________
Let me be the first to wish you a happy vacation! Look forward to chatting when you return.
Thanks for the reply Spooz, much appreciated. I've been watching squ/str long enough now that I'm comfortable with manually determining an offset that is sufficient, and then adjusting the value when flaws appear. But the ability to auto-audjust would be ideal and I'm glad to hear this method is showing promise for you.
Quote from spooz_trader1:My feeling is this, why not let the market tell me what FV is? At 9:35, I start accumalating every prem value that I calculate and simply divide by the number of premium "ticks", with the first "tick" at 9:35. So, a very simple average but I ignore the first 5 minutes to allow for "synch". I then use this "average premium" as my FV and add a +/- 2 envelope for STR/SQU. I keep the auto-FV running until the stock market closes.
Spyder - have a very enjoyable and safe vacation. There's no question you
have earned it, for putting up w/ this rag-tag bunch (kidding, of course! ). And
be sure to leave that danged laptop on your office desk
Spyder,
Have a nice time on your vacation. I'm sure you won't encounter any DU volume on
your trip!
Mak, I would love to see what you SEE. When I observe a flaw on my squ/str, such as reading neutral when YM has just BO on inc vol, then I know my offset needs adjusting. But this is a manual process that requires looking at the right place at the right time. Does your tool simplify this?
Quote from makosgu:We have a long weekend. I will attempt a full fledge flesh out of what I SEE! It is IMPERATIVE to know how a tool works before using it to do things that it was not intended for. There is a post somewhere about using average values in order to set the NEUTRAL OFFSET. I have very strong reasons why not to do such things as well as what the FLAWS are in the STR/SQU. YES, STR/SQU has FLAWS. Just like in channels, when you see FLAWS it is a change characteristic. With STR/SQU, the FLAW tells you to CHANGE the NEUTRAL OFFSET!
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
We see a 'taped ftt' form on the 10:15 bar. In addition, the FTT (Orange Channel) formed by the 10:20 bar sees Price head out of the down tape. When price begins to move laterally at the 10:25 bar, I begin to think, "O.K., we have Point One already and now we have Point Two headed toward Point Three." When volume drops off significantly and into the CCC levels, I see 'lateral movement' as 'continuation.' As a result, I hold watching for Price to make its Point Three. At 10:40, it looks at first as if Price has found its Point Three, but Price reverses and heads lower only to find the actual Point Three on the 10:45 bar. Although the 10:50 bar shows slightly less volume, I don't concern myself with it as Price still found itself within an overall retrace of the Orange Channel. Price then continued to move higher indicating I needed to continue to hold. At the 10:55 bar, I started to think perhaps volume had pushed Price as far as it could as I began to to think, 'What do I need for continuation, and what do I need for change.' Since I had no signal for change (on a Forest or Tree Level Resolution), I continued to hold.
Once the 11:00 AM bar opened and showed increasing black on a PRV basis, I anticipated price breaking through the Orange Channel, and in the process, create a volatility expansion.
- Spydertrader
on qchart, I have value for single contract but not for the formular, is this
correct?
txuk,
Quote from txuk:
I'm impressed that it calculated 69.69 at 14:00. I used 70 for the entire day, so we were right in line. But unlike today, most days I do need to make several adjustments. These moments tend to sneak up on me. Generally for me it's not "we're gradually becomming uncalibrated", its more like "WTF, all the sudden I'm off by 1-2 pts". So comparing your manual and automated approaches, do you feel the automated is responsive enough on days that require multiple manual adjustments?
Quote from nkhoi:
on qchart, I have value for single contract but not for the formular, is this correct?
got it, thank.
premimum
Does anyone know how to do this in TradeStation?
TXF
quick check, using indexarb value it is mostly > +2 thus it's bullish so far.
Anybody else has diff inpression?
Quote from nkhoi:
quick check, using indexarb value it is mostly > +2 thus it's bullish so far. Anybody else has diff inpression?
using 68.69 value it give quite diff picture. look like I can't rely on indexarb to see the market, thnx.
Spooz,
I have a general question about the Str/Squ values used in your calculations.
You show 2-minute bars, but what values did you use within those two minutes?
Did you use the high, low, or the last value at the time the 2-minute point was
recorded. I'm having to do this in Excel since my charting program does not
allow these type of custom calculations and I'm not sure which values I should
be using. Thanks.
WGTrader,
Quote from WGTrader:
Spooz,
I have a general question about the Str/Squ values used in your calculations. You show 2-minute bars, but what values did you use within those two minutes? Did you use the high, low, or the last value at the time the 2-minute point was recorded. I'm having to do this in Excel since my charting program does not allow these type of custom calculations and I'm not sure which values I should be using. Thanks.
Thanks Spooz,
I'm "harvesting" the YM and DJI values on a 1-minute basis, so I'm going to use
the last value that is recorded at the 1-min increment. I suppose that
collecting data on 1-min (or 2-min increments for that matter), there is not
much difference between the high or low anyhow. Do you agree?
MAK's worksheet is very good, but I want to see a histogram so I can observe
where the SS has been.
WGTrader,
Quote from WGTrader:
Thanks Spooz,
I'm "harvesting" the YM and DJI values on a 1-minute basis, so I'm going to use the last value that is recorded at the 1-min increment. I suppose that collecting data on 1-min (or 2-min increments for that matter), there is not much difference between the high or low anyhow. Do you agree?
MAK's worksheet is very good, but I want to see a histogram so I can observe where the SS has been.
Quote from spooz_trader1:
WGTrader,
If I understand what you're trying to do, then no, I don't agree.
IMO, you need to "harvest" str/squ at the tick level, on every YM last trade. Then, during every bar interval, keep the high and low values for display purposes. If you have a FV (Offset), then you can color the bars like I do or generate a histogram.
Hope this helps,
spooz
Quote from spooz_trader1:
WGTrader,
If I understand what you're trying to do, then no, I don't agree.
IMO, you need to "harvest" str/squ at the tick level, on every YM last trade. Then, during every bar interval, keep the high and low values for display purposes. If you have a FV (Offset), then you can color the bars like I do or generate a histogram.
Hope this helps,
spooz
chart for the morning. No surprises.
Ivo
using spooz value give a better look at market, at 11:42 it looked like the
sell off was over but the histogram was all red, give you some clue there
.
str/squ
nkhoi:
Pls teach me how to reflect ((ym07m-indu)-offset) it on 1-min histogram chart.
So far today, the premium is around 69.
Thank you.
Re: str/squ
Quote from bucherwin:
nkhoi:
Pls teach me how to reflect ((ym07m-indu)-offset) it on 1-min histogram chart. So far today, the premium is around 69.
Thank you.
str/squ
Again, nkhoi or anyone, please help me to show the offset/premium in Qcharts.
Thanks.
nkhoi, I can calculate the premium but failed to make it into 1-min histogram
chart.
Thanks again.
flash long signal, maybe
Quote from bucherwin:
nkhoi, I can calculate the premium but failed to make it into 1-min histogram chart.
Thanks again.
In tradestation I'm able to hold the extreme values of each bar in a variable and plot them as separate lines on the chart. In the attached pic the thin portion of each bar represents the extremes and the thick portion represents the last value, which fluctuates with each tick. Also look at Spooztrader's charts. He shows the same info in a slightly different way.
Quote from Tums: the problem with the histogram display is that it only shows the value happened at the closing of the bar. If the value on that bar at the final second happens to be high, you have a high histogram reading, if the final value of that bar was low, you have a low histogram reading.
((YM07M-INDU)-68)
Thanks, NKHOI, for the information, I've tried for several days about: file,
newbar chart and typed in the formular, select 1-minute, select histogram and
message came out each time with"not available".
This computer, I use now, runs window-VISTA. Hmmm, not sure what to do now.
Re: ((YM07M-INDU)-68)
Quote from bucherwin:
Thanks, NKHOI, for the information, I've tried for several days about : file, newbar chart and typed in the formular, select 1-minute, select histogram and message came out each time with"not available".
This computer, I use now, runs window-VISTA. Hmmm, not sure what to do now.
Quote from txuk:
In tradestation I'm able to hold the extreme values of each bar in a variable and plot them as separate lines on the chart. In the attached pic the thin portion of each bar represents the extremes and the thick portion represents the last value, which fluctuates with each tick. Also look at Spooztrader's charts. He shows the same info in a slightly different way.
Re: ((YM07M-INDU)-68)
Quote from bucherwin:
Thanks, NKHOI, for the information, I've tried for several days about : file, newbar chart and typed in the formular, select 1-minute, select histogram and message came out each time with"not available".
This computer, I use now, runs window-VISTA. Hmmm, not sure what to do now.
Quote from txuk:
In tradestation I'm able to hold the extreme values of each bar in a variable and plot them as separate lines on the chart. In the attached pic the thin portion of each bar represents the extremes and the thick portion represents the last value, which fluctuates with each tick. Also look at Spooztrader's charts. He shows the same info in a slightly different way.
WG, you can ignore the High/Low values of YM and INDU. You want to always work with the immediate spread of YM minus INDU minus Offset. At the beginning of each 1min bar, reset your sq/str extreme variables. With each passing tick re-calc the spread. If the spread is at its highest or lowest point on this bar, then update your extreme values. So you are plotting three values on each bar: current spread, hi extreme, lo extreme.
Quote from WGTrader: When you plot the extreme values, which ones do you use? For example, if the Str/Squ formula = (YM-INDU) - offset, do you use the (High YM - High INDU) - offset for one set of plot values and the (Low YM - Low INDU) - offset for another set of plot values?
I am collecting the tick data for the YM and the INDU in Excel and within each 1-minute bar, I have extreme values (highs and lows). I'm not sure which ones to be using in my formula to create my histogram.
Quote from txuk:
You want to always work with the immediate spread of YM minus INDU minus Offset.
So you are plotting three values on each bar: current spread, hi extreme, lo extreme.
Hope this helps
Re: ((YM07M-INDU)-68)
Quote from bucherwin:
Thanks, NKHOI, for the information, I've tried for several days about : file, newbar chart and typed in the formular, select 1-minute, select histogram and message came out each time with"not available".
This computer, I use now, runs window-VISTA. Hmmm, not sure what to do now.
NKHOI and EZZY:
Thank you both very much. I think that is the problem of VISTA and I shall do
what you've suggested.
My home computers run XP, and I am away from home.
ES 10 Apr 07
StrSqz
If you calculate the offset between the YM and Indu on any bar and put it
into the StrSqz, that bar is a zero. If you did this for every bar, you would
have a string of zeros across the chart. That being the case, of what value is
this tool?
I'm not condemning or criticizing, just trying to understand the value of the
tool and how to use it.
Re: StrSqz
Spyder has made several detailed posts this month discussing this, and many others have posted images showing that if setup properly you do not get bars as you describe. Going back to the beginning of the month would be a good place to start your research.
Quote from TXF:If you calculate the offset between the YM and Indu on any bar and put it into the StrSqz, that bar is a zero. If you did this for every bar, you would have a string of zeros across the chart. That being the case, of what value is this tool?
Quote from Tums:
the problem with the histogram display is that it only shows the value happened at the closing of the bar. If the value on that bar at the final second happens to be high, you have a high histogram reading, if the final value of that bar was low, you have a low histogram reading.
Audkid1's rendition partially overcame that deficiency -- if at anytime the bar traded over 2 (or below -2), the bar colour will be changed, even if it subsequently traded within the threshold.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...019#post1422019
Isnt the only thing that matters the spread at the moment you need it? I dont think the historical tracking of it is much use.
Txuk,
Could you show the code paragraph you use to plot the str/sqz extremes? By the
way, your PRV volume indicactor is great. I was wondering if there was a way to
plot the PRV by dividing the minutes into lets say 15 sec intervals then adding
them together to maintain a running total. This way might remove the huge spikes
that are possible at the beginning of a new bar. Of course this would become
more of a market pace than PRV.
Any thoughts? -jc
Quote from Bearbelly:
Isnt the only thing that matters the spread at the moment you need it? I dont think the historical tracking of it is much use.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from Bearbelly:
Isnt the only thing that matters the spread at the moment you need it? I dont think the historical tracking of it is much use.
inputs: DataSeries1( Close of data1 ), DataSeries2( Close of data2 ), Offset(0) ;
Quote from Audkid1: Txuk, Could you show the code paragraph you use to plot the str/sqz extremes?
Chart for this morning.
Very nice range. Trading was no problem at all. Took many points. I think the
stretch / squeeze was just what I needed. It definately makes things easier for
me.
Regards,
Ivo
Has anyone made any sense of str/squ on esignal?
FOMC minutes release at 2pm today.
The petro report this morning provided a nice run.
-Mike
Quote from dkm:
Has anyone made any sense of str/squ on esignal?
Txuk,
Thanks so much. -jc
Quote from ivob:
Chart for this morning.
Very nice range. Trading was no problem at all. Took many points. I think the stretch / squeeze was just what I needed. It definately makes things easier for me.
Regards,
Ivo
offset = 69, so I have all red all day so far, anybody have diff number?
I'm using 60.25 right now.
Been using 60 most of the day.
-Mike
Anyone have some Tradestation 2000i w/ IB feed formulas that they can share? I really don't use TS 2000i because I mainly use metatrader for forex, but I would like to start setting up in TS 2000i to look at this stuff. Any help would be appreciated.
Quote from makosgu:
YES!!!! EXACTLY! The issue is that many times, one's sweeping frequency is lagging. As a result you may miss the signal. The workaround to this is to then plot a tick chart of the premium value to catch up on the recent extremes...
Quote from optionpro007:
Ivo,
Are you trading sim or live ?
ES Chart for today. What a beautiful day.
-Mike
Today's ES. It was a good day!
It was my first time to use/watch the Str/Squ tick-by-tick. I started out with
an offset 63.93 (from Indexarb.com), but realized after a while that adjustments
are necessary. I may adopt a spooz approach and calculate it on a RT. It was
interesting to observe the Str/Squ at key points. I look forward to learning how
to use our latest tool!
It is interesting but I would like to know if anybody is making consistent money with what has gone before? I am still struggling with ftt's and volume and wondering if I am just a slow learner. I dont see what good stretch and squeese is going to do me if I cant even identify an ftt consistently.
Personally, I see more than enough through sim and live trading on the
channels and volume and ftts alone. I find the STR/SQU for me too troublesome to
formulate in Tradestation and just not seeing anything with it yet. I have not
completely dismissed it yet but "see" quite well with channels and gaussians so
far.
Sometimes you can see the trees and forrest just fine without binoculars or
other magnifying tools. It all depends on your own vision and how you trade.
Personally I have adapted the channels to daily charts of NDX and getting ready
to close some very nice trades with NDX spreads on the mid-Mar to mid April
upward channel that formed after the large drop post-China day.
So for me I am going to run to the bathroom while the class covers STR/SQU and
still keep pounding away at the channels and volume which look so much clearer
now than they did in the beginning.
Quote from Bearbelly:
It is interesting but I would like to know if anybody is making consistent money with what has gone before? I am still struggling with ftt's and volume and wondering if I am just a slow learner. I dont see what good stretch and squeeze is going to do me if I cant even identify an ftt consistently.
Quote from optioncoach:
Personally, I see more than enough through sim and live trading on the channels and volume and ftts alone. I find the STR/SQU for me too troublesome to formulate in Tradestation and just not seeing anything with it yet. I have not completely dismissed it yet but "see" quite well with channels and gaussians so far.
Sometimes you can see the trees and forrest just fine without binoculars or other magnifying tools. It all depends on your own vision and how you trade. Personally I have adapted the channels to daily charts of NDX and getting ready to close some very nice trades with NDX spreads on the mid-Mar to mid April upward channel that formed after the large drop post-China day.
So for me I am going to run to the bathroom while the class covers STR/SQU and still keep pounding away at the channels and volume which look so much clearer now than they did in the beginning.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from optioncoach:
Personally, I see more than enough through sim and live trading on the channels and volume and ftts alone. I find the STR/SQU for me too troublesome to formulate in Tradestation and just not seeing anything with it yet. I have not completely dismissed it yet but "see" quite well with channels and gaussians so far.
Sometimes you can see the trees and forrest just fine without binoculars or other magnifying tools. It all depends on your own vision and how you trade. Personally I have adapted the channels to daily charts of NDX and getting ready to close some very nice trades with NDX spreads on the mid-Mar to mid April upward channel that formed after the large drop post-China day.
So for me I am going to run to the bathroom while the class covers STR/SQU and still keep pounding away at the channels and volume which look so much clearer now than they did in the beginning.
FWIW, here is a chart of the FV premium from my 1-minute YM and INDU data today. I charted it because I wanted to see how it changed through out the day. The IndexArb.com value of 63.93 was generally close, but at key times that value would not have worked too well. I'd like to learn how people are making adjustments to their FV premium values throughout the day. I'm thinking of using the "eyeball" method!
Quote from Bearbelly:
It is interesting but I would like to know if anybody is making consistent money with what has gone before?
Quote from dkm:
Regretably, sim results so far are very disappointing. Annotations are fine but translating this into consistent profitability, even on the sim, remains elusive. Numerous small losses mean that most days end up negative. At the end of each day, the chart looks clear enough so I'm not sure where the problem is. Not moving onto to str/squ until this is resolved.
Quote from ivob:
Just keep an eye on the str/sq while simtrading. It might help, maybe it's just what you need.
.....
How many trades do you take dkm? Are you overtrading or are you in the market when things are not clear to you?
regards,
Ivo
I have a question for the more experienced traders (Mak? Bundle? Anyone
else?)
Did you notice the very strong stretch signal (I saw -10) about a minute after
the opening and do you think this was a clear indication with respect to where
the market was going after that? I lack the experience but I assume this stretch
value and the fact that I was seeing an FTT being formed in carryover channel
means the intermediate traders would have gone short immediately or not? The
stretch value is an indication for the strength of the move afterwards after
all.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from dkm:
I have watched str/squ for several days but it makes no sense at all. It may that esignal cannot display it as required or it may be just me.
I am taking probably 5 or 6 trades per day. Most of the problems arise from misinterpretation of the situation. I enter at the wrong moment and run straight into an FTT or I get a break of the RTL shortly after entry at what I believe to be a pt3 or I exit prematurely because prv is not supporting the trade. Frustrating to say the very least.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
I am trading through Velocity Futures and just wanted to share my experience from SIM to real trading. The SIM is quite a bit slower in terms of quote speeds. I dont know if this is the same for all brokers but if you are having issues on the SIM with your trading, keep in mind that the "real" mkt is quite a bit faster and more unforgiving. Its not that you cant get used to the speed but spending too much time watching the SIM mkt could be detrimental. I suggest watching the quotes on your real platform to get your eyes used to the speed.
Quote from dkm:
Has anyone made any sense of str/squ on esignal?
Quote from optionpro007:
I haven't. There is a problem somewhere.
Hopefully Mak can show us the way...
Quote from WGTrader:
I'd like to learn how people are making adjustments to their FV premium values throughout the day. I'm thinking of using the "eyeball" method!
Quote from Spydertrader:
Please, remember to recalculate the 'offset' value (at minimum) prior to the beginning of each market day. On occasion, one will need to recalculate the offset intra-day. When you see the STR/SQU values 'skewed' to one direction or another, you'll know it is time to recalculate.
I calculate the 'offset' value using the close of the 15:58 PM Eastern Time bar for the YM and the close of the INDU. I recalculate during periods of calm (e.g. CCC or no price movement), when noticing my histogram skewed away from the zero line.
- Spydertrader [/B]
Quote from nkhoi:
offset = 69, so I have all red all day so far, anybody have diff number?
These last series of posts sound very similar to my current level of
progress. Still a lot of confusion sometimes, but I feel the pieces are falling
into place more and more. Have not mentioned it here before, but I started a
journal (now in 3rd week of posting) which can be found here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&threadid=90495
if anyone is interested in comparing daily trade activity.
I experienced a marked improvement in my success rate pretty quickly, after
beginning the method studies. Have basically leveled off here (results in
journal) for a couple months, but I attribute that more to self-issues which
need to be overcome. Mind you, I am very profit (doesn't need to be big
necessarily) oriented and risk-averse, and that does fly in the face of our
'hold' rule - so its just an ongoing tug-of-war within the psyche. I choke off
good entries if the mkt hits a stall - for some reason I need to see positive
action rather quickly - after all, I did have to expend all that energy clicking
the mouse - where's my reward? - lol. I know - its a major problem, so I joke
about it to relieve the frustration.
I am trying to proceed as tho the hypothetical journal acct is actual, and
hopefully will be able to add another contract soon, so as to have two cts on
out of the gate. Then perhaps I can satisfy my need for quick profits, and leave
the runner on per the methods. Wondering if anyone else struggles with these
mental trip-ups? Regards, and let's keep pluggin away ...
Quote from dkm:
..I get a break of the RTL shortly after entry at what I believe to be a pt3 ..
Quote from nkhoi:
I pick P3 on YM first and it has to follow the gaussian pattern.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Isnt the only thing that matters the spread at the moment you need it? I dont think the historical tracking of it is much use.
I reviewed the last several pages of posts.
things will settle down as time passes.
Knowledge can be read here.. it is quick to do.
Skills take a little practice. Mada and a log works best. You do not look at the
screen so much. You sweep and remember to log the essentials. If you have
continue at coarse, then just log the mode and be cool. The mode is continue and
the action is hold. Restful and cool.
The digits for the offset are not going to contain any decimal stuff.
Above you see OUR significant figures. we are not looking for a grain of sand in
a thousand grains.
We see a band of values that is +2 to -2 wide. 4 YM/INDU points.
A swipe of a paintbrush on the chart.
the thing we want to look for is a move out of the band that is like the width
of the band. It is a solid occurrance.
even if your are skewed sownwaht this is an evident and nice trigger to wake up
for a turn in the next short while.
Most of the time we are in continue and not sweeping in the "Change" Mode. when
we are we decide to act. ACT and then sweep some more.
If we see a consequence of sweeping later, we then deal with it.
The idea of the S/S is to add another tools that confirms what you know from the
ES P and V and also from the tip offs on the YM P and V.
TO BE SURE there are a lot of other helpful things coming down the pipe.
If 50 of you zipped up your daily setting for neutral on the S/S to start the
day, we could easily see democracy rules and that no one was using four
significant figures when two will do.
Quote from ivob:
Sim until I feel I trade good enough. Have paid enough tuition in the past. Still have losing days, still have too many moments when I have no clue what's going on and I still trade too imulsive. My rule is to start trading for real when I am comfortable and satisfied with the results. There have been times when I thought this moment would never come but now the improvements are encouraging and the moment is coming nearer. I do take simtrading very seriously. I have to, the reward is trading for real.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from dkm:
Frustrating to say the very least.
I think you're onto something with this. I used 60 today (can't remember if I started w/ that or if I adjusted down to that in the morning -- I need to start logging my adjustments). Not saying 60 was the best number to use, but it was sufficient for me. I believe you mentioned previously about including all ticks for the day in your calcs. Have you experimented with using a sliding window of say the last 30 or 60 minutes, to make it more responsive?
Quote from spooz_trader1: So, here are some of my "Auto-Calculated" FV/Offsets at various times of day. Any feedback would be appreciated.
I didn't see this but it may very well have been a strong early warning, I'm curious to hear other opinions. I tend not to even look at squ/str the first 5-10 minutes. My approach is to let the market settle down and then eyeball a neutral FV (I no longer look to indexarb as a starting point). Until the mkt has synched, I don't trust my offset.
Quote from ivob:Did you notice the very strong stretch signal (I saw -10) about a minute after the opening and do you think this was a clear indication with respect to where the market was going after that?
Ivo,
You can't use the Sqz/Str for a few bars after the open. The futures and cash
have to "sync" first. The YM has already been moving by the time the INDU opens.
It can take 5 - 20 minutes for them to catch up and settle into a stable spread.
That's why you see Jack mention waiting for the bar 4 break out.
After sync is when you want to set your offset. So don't read anything into it
right after the open.
Regards - EZ
Quote from ivob:
I have a question for the more experienced traders (Mak? Bundle? Anyone else?)
Did you notice the very strong stretch signal (I saw -10) about a minute after the opening and do you think this was a clear indication with respect to where the market was going after that? I lack the experience but I assume this stretch value and the fact that I was seeing an FTT being formed in carryover channel means the intermediate traders would have gone short immediately or not? The stretch value is an indication for the strength of the move afterwards after all.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from Ezzy:
Ivo,
You can't use the Sqz/Str for a few bars after the open. The futures and cash have to "sync" first. The YM has already been moving by the time the INDU opens. It can take 5 - 20 minutes for them to catch up and settle into a stable spread. That's why you see Jack mention waiting for the bar 4 break out.
After sync is when you want to set your offset. So don't read anything into it right after the open.
Regards - EZ
Quote from optionpro007:
snip ... I will do this until I get it done.
S/S
For anyone still having problems setting up a chart for S/S in QCharts, here is a possible solution. Attached is a small workspace for QC 5.1 with the necessary stuff. One could open it, save the Layouts on their machine and then open them in their workspace.
Would any of you guys be interested in setting up a chat room where we could compare notes during the day?
Quote from bundlemaker:
First, I followed Spyder's suggestion to NOT annotate an FTT UNTIL the bar AFTER the bar I thought was an FTT closed. I did this for a good week or so. It quickly became painful to wait that long, but it sure cured my earliness.
Quote from bdolnik:
Bundlemaker I've seen you say this before, does this mean that you don't enter the trade until you wait for the next bar and annotate the ftt? Or are you still trading the beginners method entering at the point 3?
Thanks for the channel video, it helped a lot.
Bryan
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Spyder suggested this as a learning tool to me. When I did it, I wasn't even paper trading at the time. Personally, I get real nervous the further from the best possible entry I get in (whether with real $$$ or otherwise) so I like to enter or annotate as close to actual FTT as possible. By the time I was paper trading again I didn't need to wait as long as this excersise requires. It's merely a temporary process to get one on track.
One other helpful hint from Spyder was this: upon entry, imagine that you entered at to the tick at the extreme of the FTT. In other words, the best possible entry. Focus on that point instead of your actual entry. This tends to help one to stop worrying about every tick back and forth. So much of my resolution problem was related to trying to make sense of every tick of movement.
Glad you found the video useful.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Spyder suggested this as a learning tool to me. When I did it, I wasn't even paper trading at the time. Personally, I get real nervous the further from the best possible entry I get in (whether with real $$$ or otherwise) so I like to enter or annotate as close to actual FTT as possible. By the time I was paper trading again I didn't need to wait as long as this excersise requires. It's merely a temporary process to get one on track.
One other helpful hint from Spyder was this: upon entry, imagine that you entered at to the tick at the extreme of the FTT. In other words, the best possible entry. Focus on that point instead of your actual entry. This tends to help one to stop worrying about every tick back and forth. So much of my resolution problem was related to trying to make sense of every tick of movement.
Glad you found the video useful.
snap shot on ym lead es, watch the sync cusor line
Look at this strong stretch / squeeze value exactly when the market turned at
9:56.
BTW my lines are currrently not -2 and +2 but -4 +4 or so.
Ivo
Thanks Ivo.
Check my 9:56 bar,
No wonder we can't 'see' the uses of this indicator yet.
Thanks !
Quote from optionpro007:
Thanks Ivo.
Check my 9:56 bar,
No wonder we can't 'see' the uses of this indicator yet.
Thanks !
Have to leave early so here's my chart for the morning.
The good thing:
- +4 points, no surprises, no losing trades at all. Caught pt 3's on exactly the
right moment.
bad thing:
- did not hold onto winners. Else +4 would have been +12. Obviously this is the
next step: having faith in my own judgement and hold if there's no change
signal.
regards,
Ivo
watch the str
so far...
My chart for today. I've been away during the last two weeks and I needed two days this week to get back into the groove. Managed to set up Mak's Excel tool for Str.Sqz. For the first two days I used indexarb value and I found it way off. After reading the advice, I now change the value every so often. Today in the morning I had it set to 59 mostly and later, around 61.
ES 12 April 2007
Today's ES. Managed to nab a few points!
I am having a little trouble with STR/SQ in Esignal. I have compared the 9:56 bar to IVO and Optionpro007. Not a very good signal for myself at that time when there was change. I am guessing that I am not setup correct ? Also would like to say thanks to all the posts in this journal, I have learned so much !
I got a couple of pm's about chat so I set up a room in paltalk. Its called Channeltrading. Its open to anybody for now and hopefully only those seriously interested in comparing notes on this method will join in.
I thought I had a perfect Point 3 Short at 10:35.
There was a sharp down movement at 10:05-10:10 on high red volume and a
subsequent retrace on declining black volume till 10:35. YM too seemed to
confirm. However, price then shot upwards at 10:38 and blew out the RTL.
Was there any way that one could have known that this Point 3 at 10:35 would not
hold?
Thanks.
KK-
I noticed decreasing red volume on YM starting at 10:24am. This would indicate a
retrace in the newly formed up channel.
-Mike
My chart for the morning.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from Bearbelly:
I got a couple of pm's about chat so I set up a room in paltalk. Its called Channeltrading. Its open to anybody for now and hopefully only those seriously interested in comparing notes on this method will join in.
Quote from mephistoII:
I meant to respond yesterday on your suggestion, thinking it could be very helpful to discuss this stuff realtime. Is there a charge for Paltalk? Thanks ...
Quote from KK70:
I thought I had a perfect Point 3 Short at 10:35.
There was a sharp down movement at 10:05-10:10 on high red volume and a subsequent retrace on declining black volume till 10:35. YM too seemed to confirm. However, price then shot upwards at 10:38 and blew out the RTL.
Was there any way that one could have known that this Point 3 at 10:35 would not hold?
Thanks.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Today’s ES. Looked a bit like yesterday. For my S/S model, I used an auto FV calculation that averages the last 50 ticks of the YM and INDU. As a result, my offset ranged between 56 and 58 throughout the day. I watched the S/S closely, but I can’t say it helped me that much (probably from my inexperience with this tool). Have a great weekend everybody!
The YM STR/SQU? Why don't you guys watch the ES STR/SQU?
Quote from KK70:
I thought I had a perfect Point 3 Short at 10:35.
There was a sharp down movement at 10:05-10:10 on high red volume and a subsequent retrace on declining black volume till 10:35. YM too seemed to confirm. However, price then shot upwards at 10:38 and blew out the RTL.
Was there any way that one could have known that this Point 3 at 10:35 would not hold?
Thanks.
Quote from trader225:
The YM STR/SQU? Why don't you guys watch the ES STR/SQU?
Today's ES. Have a good weekend.
-Mike
Wanted to post a tough afternoon section (for me at least
) and break it down.
At 14:50 it looked like an FTT on the ES, was clearer on the YM. Change
15:00 Everything looks fine and declining red on the YM. Non-dom retrace but
also looking for a #2.
15:05 There is a tape BO on declining volume on the ES. YM had a bump in volume
but a couple were DU volume so I thought hold. Watch for #3
15:10 We get increasing black. Now I'm thinking continue. Starting to really
worry and think wash and reverse. But the volume is much lower then the previous
peak. So lots of questions here. Looks overall decreasing black, but it's going
against me.
15:15 By now the YM has put in a possible point 3 for a lateral. The ES follows
suit. We get declining red on the YM. I'm watching for increasing black. During
this bar I'm thinking lateral. Hold?
15:20 Have a tape up. But also the lateral channel. I've realized I lost sight
of the Forest and trying to work it out. Looks like a stall on the ES. YM has a
down tape.
15:25 As we walk sideways for several bars I realize we're working toward the
RTL on the ES, the non-dom retrace as when we started 14:50.
Kinda lost track of the forest because the short term action between the TL's
sucked me into the leaves. I'd be interested to hear how others viewed the
action during that period.
Regards EZ
Quote from Ezzy:
... I'd be interested to hear how others viewed the action during that period.
Regards EZ
I did redraw the uptrend, that was the third one. About the 20dma, i have
some issues with it, though spydertrader really likes it. Probably not the place
to go into it, but for now trying to keep a clean chart.
After the volume picked up I thought we might have a run into the close. When
the retrace started to look like a resume I didn't really handle it as well as
I'd liked.
What happened was while I was expecting a retrace, it started to look like a
quick dip. That brought me down to the leaves real quick where, at some point, I
should have not been worried and waited for either the resume or retrace to the
RTL.
I wanted to put it out there as an example of jumping resolutions that can
happen and cause problems. During it I remember Spydertrader saying "where are
you and what tools are you using" and I knew I was using the wrong tools in the
wrong place - mid channel.
Thanks for the comments - EZ
Quote from mephistoII:
Ezzy - If I may, I'll just make a couple general comments, and leave the slice and dice for the more astute technicians. The first thing I noticed on your chart was the absence of the 20 sma - perhaps you removed it for clarity in your example. But it once again pretty much contained price action all afternoon. That is a pretty good indication that the trend is still intact. Also, I'm assuming you redrew your dominant upchannel 3 or 4 times today, as the walkouts served to decrease the slope, but the operative rtl was continually supporting price.
...
Hi everyone,
Could those who know please tell me on what pages of this thread can i find Feb
and March archives like that one for Jan on page 130?
Thanks in advance!
Janis
Quote from KK70:
I thought I had a perfect Point 3 Short at 10:35.
There was a sharp down movement at 10:05-10:10 on high red volume and a subsequent retrace on declining black volume till 10:35. YM too seemed to confirm. However, price then shot upwards at 10:38 and blew out the RTL.
Was there any way that one could have known that this Point 3 at 10:35 would not hold?
Thanks.
Hi All,
Could someone pls post the volume levels for ES and YM where we are supposed to
draw the lines?
regards,
Ivo
Quote from Ezzy:
Wanted to post a tough afternoon section (for me at least
At 14:50 it looked like an FTT on the ES, was clearer on the YM. Change
agreed
15:00 Everything looks fine and declining red on the YM. Non-dom retrace but also looking for a #2.
that's also how I perceived it
15:05 There is a tape BO on declining volume on the ES. YM had a bump in volume but a couple were DU volume so I thought hold. Watch for #3
I would have waited for point 3 after price would have broken out of the main channel. IMO waiting for point 3 is not the right action here the question for beginners is will price break out of the main channel or not. There is a point 3 on the traverse on YM as you marked it. If you decided to take this trade the action would be to get out on break of RTL (YM) which came together with FBO on YM (main channel). On ES this the tape. You're just trading very fine resolution here.
15:10 We get increasing black. Now I'm thinking continue. Starting to really worry and think wash and reverse. But the volume is much lower then the previous peak. So lots of questions here. Looks overall decreasing black, but it's going against me.
True but there IS increasing black and we need increasing red. And as far as I know you compare volume to the bars around it (or to the bars before), not to the previous peak. A volume peak (gaussian) makes a gaussian by comparing to the bars around it.
15:25 As we walk sideways for several bars I realize we're working toward the RTL on the ES, the non-dom retrace as when we started 14:50.
Look at ES and where price is closing all the time. It's just moving sideways. IMO that is not non-dominant volume and not a non-dominant retrace. First volume decreased and then it increased. Had this been a down channel price would have to go down on increasing volume and price could have gone up somewhat on decreasing volume. The uptrend remains. People were just buying.
Regards EZ
Ivo,
Afterwards is when we break it down, so all observations are worthwhile.
I had a lot of neutral sqz/str with short term blips in both directions so it
seemed more a fine measure (if trading the leaves) than a confirmation of the
longer swings - meaning I didn't find it helpful either during this period.
True but there IS increasing black and we need increasing red. And as far as
I know you compare volume to the bars around it (or to the bars before), not to
the previous peak. A volume peak (gaussian) makes a gaussian by comparing to the
bars around it.
Good point here. You want increasing red for a reversal, I was watching for a
non-dom traverse which would be decreasing red. Got that initially.
The lower peak volume (15:10 bar) has to do with extending the daily range. The
previous peak had made a new high for the day. To extend that high you would
expect "more" volume. The prior peak seemed to be peaking volume. Since we
didn't get near that, to me it said we're not going higher, momentum is waining.
So while I was pretty confident it wasn't going higher, the increasing black did
worry me. Except for a couple minor blips after that, that was pretty much it
for the day as we went sideways into the close.
Thanks for the comments. IMO debriefing these "rough" areas is very important as
the bigger moves have much more room for error.
Regards - EZ
Quote from ivob:
It's all easy reasoning afterwards :-) What helped me is watching stretch/squeeze because we were getting positive stretch values the whole time on important moments. It did not confirm any of the FTT's and often it invalidaded them. I cannot mention specific examples right now but I saw 3 times strong contrary stretch values when I thought it would be a market turn.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from Ezzy:
I had a lot of neutral sqz/str with short term blips in both directions so it seemed more a fine measure (if trading the leaves) than a confirmation of the longer swings - meaning I didn't find it helpful either during this period.
The first day of the chat room turned out much better than I expected. It is
in Paltalk under Business/daytrading and is called
Channeltrading. Members are required to have at least an elementary knowledge of
the method and its terms. We will not be answering questions like, what is an
ftt, what does b2b mean?As of Monday it will require a password. PM me for the
password if you are interested and if you already are familiar with the basics
of the method. I am sending the password to those of you whose nicks I know. If
I overlook anyone please chalk it up to bad memory and pm me for it. As per
Magnas request please DO NOT ask questions about the room here in the forum as I
will not answer them. You should pm me with any questions. I was hoping to have
sound in the room Monday but Paltalk is having some issues and we will have to
wait until they get it straightened out. Thanks to all who participated.
Re: Volume
Here you go Ivo-
Quote from Spydertrader:
Let's take a look at Volume as a tool for trading the ES ....
If you notice my charts, you'll see several lines drawn through the volume bars.
Red Line - 2500 level
Blue Lines - 4500 and 7000 levels
Green Lines - 9000 and 19,000 levels
Everyone should add these levels (or an iteration there of) to their ES Charts.
These various levels represent the 'pace' of the market (I may have the levels slightly off, but Jack can provide the exact levels he uses). Think of it as what to expect from price when volume reaches these levels. The greater the level of volume, the greater the movement of price.
Mak posted his observations with respect to Volume, and I encourage everyone to review his post.
In addition, the Gaussians Attachment lays out our expectations for price movement based on continued volume increase. Note the Gaussian changes at the point of an FTT.
I hope everyone finds the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Re: Adding the YM
Here is YM info, Ivo-
Quote from Spydertrader:
First we need a measurement of Volume Pace. Similar to the fashion in which we added ES Volume lines, add the same lines to the YM at the following levels:
1200 High
600 Medium
400 Low
200 DU
I use 250 for my YM DU level, but the above Volume levels Jack has recommended.
[/B]
Quote from Ezzy:
The lower peak volume (15:10 bar) has to do with extending the daily range. The previous peak had made a new high for the day. To extend that high you would expect "more" volume. The prior peak seemed to be peaking volume. Since we didn't get near that, to me it said we're not going higher, momentum is waining. So while I was pretty confident it wasn't going higher, the increasing black did worry me. Except for a couple minor blips after that, that was pretty much it for the day as we went sideways into the close.
Thanks for the comments. IMO debriefing these "rough" areas is very important as the bigger moves have much more room for error.
Regards - EZ
Quote from mephistoII:
So, my question is this. Are these declining volume peaks also a function of time of day and number of participants - kind of a normal daily decrease in activity. This is most probably an oversimplification of mkt action, considering the myriad variables, but something I've wondered about just the same. Regards ...
Quote from ivob:
Hi EZ,
You are right. But long swings start with moments of change (FTT's). We zoom in and look at str/sq among other things and conclude. How long the swing will be we don't know. It's these moments (like possible FTT's) I'm talking about when I noticed opposite signals (strong positive str/sq values). Had these values been neutral I wouldn't have cared about it.
regards,
Ivo
[QUOTE]Quote from Ezzy:
Wish I had recorded the session.
Ezzy,
Here is my Excel file with the tick data from yesterday. (times are EST). You
can see the calculated offset I used and the S/S spreads are highlighted (green
over 2.0 and red under -2.0). It is interesting to note that there was quite a
bit of S/S action between 10:00 and 10:04, again between 10:38 and 10:39, and a
little around 1:15. The rest of the day was rather tame. I'm new to this tool
but I'm starting to see that it does signal "something" around the FTT's and
other key movements. I just have to learn what it's saying!
I have your chart before me and I will splice in some comments below.
The approach I am using to comment to you is to improve the overall context for
trading.
I will use differentcolors in the comments because I want the different kinds of
things I am addressing to stand out
Red will be overall general practices.
Green will by annotating technicalities.
Blue will be confirmations of something done correctly that you need to keep
doing to build experience.
Italics will be a notation on your currrent thought typed in expressing
something that I have something to say about.
So the colors all come together to offer a comprehensive view of the time from
14:30 on for the 13APR07.
My response will take several posts because I want to do a series of charts to
make my points.
Quote from Ezzy:
Wanted to post a tough afternoon section (for me at least
when things are getting tough there is a reason. The market is always doing the same thing: telling you what is going on.
By annotating, you steadily and surely provide a ball park in which to bat. The scope and bounds of what is possible pricewise is always before your eyes. you have a reason to annotate it is to KNOW what the playing field is and the limits of the playing field.
We use greys to see the more detailed traverses within the 1 weight lines. (green for long and red for short); a 2 weight boundary is made for the 1 weight movements. I note laerals of all weights (and greys) in yellow.
Thus I am emntally color and weight coordinated and I KNOW what is going on. The EFFECT for me is sports memory trading.
YOUR TOUGH AFTER NOON STARTED AT THE LEFT SIDE OF THE es CHART OR BEFORE
the discussion I am doing starts at the red double arrow on the left of the ES chart. The YM does not come into play until the green up arrow (also denoted nicely by the thin dark green vertical line). See attached chart
Annotation is not in a good place at this point in time.
At 14:50 it looked like an FTT on the ES, was clearer on the YM. Change
15:00 Everything looks fine and declining red on the YM. Non-dom retrace but also looking for a #2.
15:05 There is a tape BO on declining volume on the ES. YM had a bump in volume but a couple were DU volume so I thought hold. Watch for #3
15:10 We get increasing black. Now I'm thinking continue. Starting to really worry and think wash and reverse. But the volume is much lower then the previous peak. So lots of questions here. Looks overall decreasing black, but it's going against me.
15:15 By now the YM has put in a possible point 3 for a lateral. The ES follows suit. We get declining red on the YM. I'm watching for increasing black. During this bar I'm thinking lateral. Hold?
15:20 Have a tape up. But also the lateral channel. I've realized I lost sight of the Forest and trying to work it out. Looks like a stall on the ES. YM has a down tape.
15:25 As we walk sideways for several bars I realize we're working toward the RTL on the ES, the non-dom retrace as when we started 14:50.
Kinda lost track of the forest because the short term action between the TL's sucked me into the leaves. I'd be interested to hear how others viewed the action during that period.
Regards EZ
I would like some input on the best way to progress here. It is my understanding that you should be making cash money on a fairly consistent basis using only the 5 min ES chart with channels, volume and prv before moving on. You just watch and annotate the 5 min. You then sim the 5 min until you get consistent results. You then trade the 5 min realtime. When you become proficient at this level THEN you move to the next level. Mak burned this into my brain awhile back and it makes a great deal of sense to me. In the chat room there are a number of people simming with everything up to and including stretch and squeeze without ever having made a dime and I cant help but feel that this is a huge mistake. Having jumped ahead several times over the course of this thread I understand where they are coming from but I did realize that I was making a mistake and backed up all the way to the beginning again. More is not neccessarily better if you are not equipped to handle it. Jack has mentioned that the one minute is way too hyper and I cant help but feel, after watching the 2 min ym for quite awhile that it, too, is too hyper if you are not prepared for it. People are not going to the 2 min ym from the 5 min for clarification but rather watching the 2 min and then going back to the 5 min. Going back to the 5 min only has slowed things down considerably for me and I am doing better. I am posting this, not to criticize, lord knows Im one of the worst about jumping ahead, but to try and get others to keep from burning out before they ever get a grip on this thing.
Quote from Ezzy:
Wanted to post a tough afternoon section (for me at least
I drew in the green 1 weight channel and the channel expansion. This is a starting point and lets use it.
The FTT of this green channel AFTER the expansion let us draw a grey leateral channel (in yellow) This is not a 1 weight.
Greys follwed on the BO of the grey channel. Why am I doing this. It is because , if I had an automated program simply written , this is what I would get. Greays give us two (adjacent) simple representations for what can be built (The Legos of trading)
You see the red 1 weight channel come out of this. This gives us the potential for and FTT in the red.
The red FTT occurs.
We have now, on the forest level, traded from the green FTT to the red FTT and we are long again as a consequence at point one of the next 1 weight channel.
This is not a tough time and we are making money and in on the right side of the market and leading up to the next comment posted.
We are also now on the ym chart and the first thing there is to get the greys going (Lego it up)
Frome these greys we get a green 1 weight channel.
See the attachment.
At 14:50 it looked like an FTT on the ES, was clearer on the YM. Change
15:00 Everything looks fine and declining red on the YM. Non-dom retrace but also looking for a #2.
15:05 There is a tape BO on declining volume on the ES. YM had a bump in volume but a couple were DU volume so I thought hold. Watch for #3
15:10 We get increasing black. Now I'm thinking continue. Starting to really worry and think wash and reverse. But the volume is much lower then the previous peak. So lots of questions here. Looks overall decreasing black, but it's going against me.
15:15 By now the YM has put in a possible point 3 for a lateral. The ES follows suit. We get declining red on the YM. I'm watching for increasing black. During this bar I'm thinking lateral. Hold?
15:20 Have a tape up. But also the lateral channel. I've realized I lost sight of the Forest and trying to work it out. Looks like a stall on the ES. YM has a down tape.
15:25 As we walk sideways for several bars I realize we're working toward the RTL on the ES, the non-dom retrace as when we started 14:50.
Kinda lost track of the forest because the short term action between the TL's sucked me into the leaves. I'd be interested to hear how others viewed the action during that period.
Regards EZ
Quote from Ezzy:
Wanted to post a tough afternoon section (for me at least
At 14:50 it looked like an FTT on the ES, was clearer on the YM.
We reversed into a long at 14:35 or so (there was about 10 minutes to make this decision on the ES.) The first two bars on the YM nailed it for the reversal on the ES.
I am going to tinterrupt this with a post to respond to another post. the thene is how trading goes in this journal.
So at 14:50 we are annotated we are long and we have a point 2 that we were looking for.[/color]
The idea here is to lego with greys; put in points to get a channel; draw the channel; then look for an FTT; reverse on the FTT
color=green]Our status is clear all the time in NOW.[/color]
15:00 Everything looks fine and declining red on the YM. Non-dom retrace but also looking for a #2.
15:05 There is a tape BO on declining volume on the ES. YM had a bump in volume but a couple were DU volume so I thought hold. Watch for #3
15:10 We get increasing black. Now I'm thinking continue. Starting to really worry and think wash and reverse. But the volume is much lower then the previous peak. So lots of questions here. Looks overall decreasing black, but it's going against me.
15:15 By now the YM has put in a possible point 3 for a lateral. The ES follows suit. We get declining red on the YM. I'm watching for increasing black. During this bar I'm thinking lateral. Hold?
15:20 Have a tape up. But also the lateral channel. I've realized I lost sight of the Forest and trying to work it out. Looks like a stall on the ES. YM has a down tape.
15:25 As we walk sideways for several bars I realize we're working toward the RTL on the ES, the non-dom retrace as when we started 14:50.
Kinda lost track of the forest because the short term action between the TL's sucked me into the leaves. I'd be interested to hear how others viewed the action during that period.
Regards EZ
Quote from Bearbelly:
I would like some input on the best way to progress here.
I'm going to give you some input.[color]
It is my understanding that you should be making cash money on a fairly consistent basis using only the 5 min ES chart with channels, volume and prv before moving on.
[color=red]What people are doing in this journal is working. They are following a syllibus that was laid out at the start and there have been acouple of modifications to it.
Those that are working are NOT blending what they are doing with other fandangos of any kind. From your posts I understand you are cutting and paste what you choose here and there into what you have been doing for an assortment of resons that you have stated.
the deal here in this journal is to learn and DRILL what is being done at the time of the year it has been planned to do these drills.
The reason, oft started is that a person may read and get knowledge and skills, he thinks, but there is no way to get experience except by doing the time. A person does time very purposefully and with all the potential he possesses to "get it"
You just watch and annotate the 5 min.
There is no just. What was done in January was learning to annotate by drilling on every bar of every chart day after day. It is on the 5 min ES chart that shows P and V.
You then sim the 5 min until you get consistent results.
There is no concept of "consistency". what is going on purposefully is working hard in a determined way to get down by drilling the understanding of what the market is offering. Logging what is being done is essential. You log what you see to do according to a rules set.
You then trade the 5 min realtime. When you become proficient at this level THEN you move to the next level.
People are working together doing the same thing that is onthe table in the schedule. There is a possibility that some people have entered late or they did not take seriosly the aspect of working or the aspect that there is an experience component that involves drilling on the topic at hand. We are working here to have a group of people working on the same thing at the same time.
Mak burned this into my brain awhile back and it makes a great deal of sense to me. In the chat room there are a number of people simming with everything up to and including stretch and squeeze without ever having made a dime and I cant help but feel that this is a huge mistake.
there are people who do "assessing". They are assessors. They are not learning; they are not working either. They are not experiencing doing the drills. This is fine for them to do.
Rules for doing the parts of MADA were set up very early. And notably they are there to make money.
The SCT is designed to make money by extracting money from the markets as a pool extraction paradigm. The "feelings" set associated with it is not the same "feelings" set associated with the conventional orthodoxy, sometimes called "standard orthodoxy" (Lo, et al, 2005; shull, 2007). The feelings we find that come into the fore when work is done to drill on the succession of topics and to the exclusion of other, sometimes conflicting beleif systems are: support, comfort and confidence.
Having jumped ahead several times over the course of this thread I understand where they are coming from but I did realize that I was making a mistake and backed up all the way to the beginning again.
This is an example of YOU, perhaps, finsihing up the assessing role you have been playing for quite a while. you may have determined that you are behind the curve as well. that may come later, even.
More is not neccessarily better if you are not equipped to handle it.
The amount of whatever and the potential of a person, any person, is not on the table. A very wide spectrum of people can and are doing this work and they are following the process. The potential of a person to do what is required in a purposeful way has never been an issue. The absolute guarantee of not getting the job done is one and only one thing: doing the work in a purposeful manner. This is prevented by many many things. A choice is made at some point by any person of any potential. That chioce simply and definitely orients the person to work purposefully. YOU may make that chioce sometime.
Jack has mentioned that the one minute is way too hyper and I cant help but feel, after watching the 2 min ym for quite awhile that it, too, is too hyper if you are not prepared for it.
Watching is not the subject of this schedule. the subject is working. Part of that is monitoring. There is no preparation required to work, do the drills, and get results. The results are knowledge, skills and experience. We transfer knowledge and skills. We do not transfer experience. That is acquired by working purposefully. If I asked a person to post every thursday's chart for three years, then I would get 150 or so charts and I would see the work progression. I could not imagine they would miss a thursday unless they were on vacationspending some money somewhere.
People are not going to the 2 min ym from the 5 min for clarification but rather watching the 2 min and then going back to the 5 min.
try very hard to get out of your mind what others are doing if this is the result you are getting. There is a thing called sweeping. You are not describing it at all. you are in a differnet world with this comment. My recommentdation to you is to work. work hard to get what is going on straight.
Going back to the 5 min only has slowed things down considerably for me and I am doing better.
YOU can do two things: Do mada and do sweeps in the M of MADA. there is a rubber band part of this that lends CONTINUITY and EFFECTIVENESS and EFFICIENCY. I have worked on SCT for a while. It stems from sufficiency. (See Info-gap decision theory (particularly contraction) and particularly, the Equity Premium: A Solution, Ben-Hiam, 2006, etc.).
People who are invested in the SO, are subject to freakout caused by feelings which prompt them to act on single element data sets. YOU cannot just forget anything but instead, YOU have to build a wall around your consequences that you decided to get. the symptoms you avere are SOP in the progression sited first above (Lo, et al).
The wall is built primarily by your subconcious input as has been explained to you ad nauseum.
This journal is NOT devoted to "the cure". It is devoted to building minds to excell in a manner that is going to bear fruit for others who have an array of problems.
I am posting this, not to criticize, lord knows Im one of the worst about jumping ahead, but to try and get others to keep from burning out before they ever get a grip on this thing.
No one is going to burn out. That symptom is not present in the consequence of making a chioce to work purposefully. Et has many protectors who protect the unaware from the assortment of things that others need protection from. This is one of your continuing roles, we see yet again.
What is happening here is that a new paradigm is being introduced successfully and on a basis, purposeful work, that get a result that has ben demonstrated for quite a while. Naturally, it is wise to filter out people who have no intention to do the work.
Many people have become aware, at thsi point, that every time another shell of the onion is introduced, this is going to inflame past feelings. These feelings come from the person using a non solution previously that the new onion shell DOES provide a solution for. It is quite and expersince to finally see a solution coming to be in hand that was not possible before. Assessor types get to have this feeling quitee often.
Were I you, I would not worry about others casually or otherwise. Be an example instead by posting every day the work you did during the days. Chart and annotations are nice. Logs that show dataset collections and the MADA sequence documented are better. The walk stuff. Questions help others to formulate their concerns.
Quote from Ezzy:
snip... see prior posts
We see below a comment on every bar. the comments provide a narrative but they do not include greys, getting channel points. There is a comment, at last, about the trade that is on.
Any time you are not ahead of the curve, you sideline and do annotating until you are back ahead of the curve. Here there was no intention to get control of the ball park. you can always start with greys.
15:05 There is a tape BO on declining volume on the ES. YM had a bump in volume but a couple were DU volume so I thought hold. Watch for #3
15:10 We get increasing black. Now I'm thinking continue. Starting to really worry and think wash and reverse. But the volume is much lower then the previous peak. So lots of questions here. Looks overall decreasing black, but it's going against me.
snip....
Lets work on the chart.
We had point 2 and then the grey non dominant traverse.
We are holding to the next FTT to take an action (reversal).
First comes point 3 quite nicely. We are pleasantly holding as we annote the new grey dom beginning.....
We are sitting for three bars to get the FTT. the same nice solid peaking value keeps coming up.
The trader in us can take the trading action to reverse (short) and then look for ....point 2.
It turns out to be along search.....
So what about the final exit for the day? Nine bar bottoms hit the same price one tick above the grey. This is the exit from the short we took on at FTT.
I left all the old annotations in so there is a comparison with my additions.
YOUR TOUGH AFTER NOON STARTED AT THE LEFT SIDE OF THE es CHART OR
BEFORE
The tough time actually started around 15:00. Up to that point everything seemed
to be going as expected.
At 13:10 we had the afternoon BO, then a FBO, which happens often so it was
anticipated. At 13:35 we had an inside bar, prices started stalling, decreasing
black and we went sideways. So I expected walking out to a point 3 or retrace to
point 3.
My annotations were pretty bad, especially on the YM. I'll get that in order. In
hindsight I probably should have posted more of the charts instead of squeezing
them together for posting.
Thanks for taking the time to walk through this. It's very helpful.
Regards - EZ
I have been annotating the charts for awhile now but have not been posting them as theres seems to be quite a few as it is. I can do so if it is required. I am logging on a spiral notebook and am not sure how to post that but will figure out a way if that is also a requirement. Whatever you may think, my comments were posted out of empathy because of the frustration some people are expressing. I think they are taking on too much too soon but what the heck do I know.
Quote from Ezzy:
snip.....
Below is the rest of the posy. It is a commentary on bar action and not on the greys, points and the channels and their FTT's.
this kind of commentary and thinking maybe, has to be subbordinated to the taking of data sets (their components) and what the MODE is on each sweep.
If you were noting continue or change, then you would bee making use of what you are monitoring and the conclusion associated with the data set.
After you know the MODE you then know the decision.
Review the annotating and fill in a log of the sweeps of the new annotation.
Also put in approximate values of the actions that precipitated the profits going form FTT to FTT.
15:15 By now the YM has put in a possible point 3 for a lateral. The ES follows suit. We get declining red on the YM. I'm watching for increasing black. During this bar I'm thinking lateral. Hold?
15:20 Have a tape up. But also the lateral channel. I've realized I lost sight of the Forest and trying to work it out. Looks like a stall on the ES. YM has a down tape.
15:25 As we walk sideways for several bars I realize we're working toward the RTL on the ES, the non-dom retrace as when we started 14:50.
Kinda lost track of the forest because the short term action between the TL's sucked me into the leaves. I'd be interested to hear how others viewed the action during that period.
Regards EZ
Quote from CFerret:
Hi everyone,
Could those who know please tell me on what pages of this thread can i find Feb and March archives like that one for Jan on page 130?
Thanks in advance!
Janis
Quote from CFerret:
Hi everyone,
Could those who know please tell me on what pages of this thread can i find Feb and March archives like that one for Jan on page 130?
Thanks in advance!
Janis
Quote from jack hershey:
snip . . . Blue will be confirmations of something done correctly that you need to keep doing to build experience.
Quote from mephistoII:
CFerret - I can help ya with some of this - go to pg. 264 and locate PrOcrast's post where he provides links to Vol. 1 (January) and Vol. 2 (February).
Perhaps I missed it, but I do not recall seeing a recap for the month of March yet.
I downloaded the videos from procrasts site but am having some trouble playing them. On two of them I have no video and the audio is so low I cannot hear it even with volume turned up all the way. On the third one the audio is ok but no video. Media player cannot recognize the codecs and cannot locate it anywhere. Do we need a special codec from somewhere?
http://www.techsmith.com/download/codecs.asp
Is there anything you dont know where to find?
thx
STR/SQU...
In general, when monitoring STR/SQU, does the magnitude of the STR or SQU have
any meaning? In other words, is a spike that is much larger than the +/- 2
Neutral range more interesting than a spike that barely breaks Neutral?
I'm curious if others see a lot of "flashing". By flashing, I mean lots of
signals in both directions in a single bar. Anyone have any ideas on the meaning
here? For example, STR followed by SQU.
Lastly, does anyone question the +/-2 Neutral region? In other words, what if
the region was larger?
Using replay, I'm going to post a few snippets from Friday morning. Using
hindsight, I picked 2 Action Points to check for STR/SQU signals. Note that my
STR/SQU uses 2 min bars and I paint the background GREEN for STR and RED for
SQU. The blue horizontal line show the NOW value.
The first snippet is a "new candidate point 3". Of course, it is a new point 3
in hindsight. I beleive this snippet shows SQU.
Am I interpreting this stuff correctly? I dunno. It would be useful for people
to post snippets for discussion. Maybe take a screen in RT, edit and post later.
spooz
Snippet 2, candidate FTT...
This is one of several STR's that signalled in my app on this bar. Note that the
NOW value (blue line) is basically at the +2 region.
The LTL of the "wide" ES channel expanded on this bar. I fanned a steeper
channel to show the potential FTT candidate.
After this signal, I saw several more STR.
Again, my STR/SQU uses 2 min bars...
Snippet 3, same ES bar...
Note that this STR signal is a much larger spike than shown in the previous
snippet. Any meaning here?
Any feedback/discussion would be appreciated...
spooz
for str/squ live recording discussion is more appropriate, imho.
Quote from spooz_trader1:
In general, when monitoring STR/SQU, does the magnitude of the STR or SQU have any meaning? In other words, is a spike that is much larger than the +/- 2 Neutral range more interesting than a spike that barely breaks Neutral?
spooz
Quote from makosgu:
. The extremes are important because they tell you how prevalent the upcoming ES move will be...
Quote from makosgu:
Initially, just watch for the strong stuff... This is like +/- 5 territory... You can actually profile str/squ for strength just like volume...
VDU is -2<=X<=+2
You move out from there...
Quote from spooz_trader1:
I'm curious if others see a lot of "flashing". By flashing, I mean lots of signals in both directions in a single bar. Anyone have any ideas on the meaning here? For example, STR followed by SQU.
spooz
Quote from spooz_trader1:
[BLastly, does anyone question the +/-2 Neutral region? In other words, what if the region was larger?
spooz [/B]
Quote from Spydertrader:
2. Inside -2 to +2 we consider neutral or noise - no signal.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
4. In order to seek a correlation between STR/SQU and ES Price, one needs to use a combination of STR/SQU the DOM Levels and Wall changes, as well as Trend Lines and T & S.
- Spydertrader
Quote from nkhoi:
for str/squ live recording discussion is more appropriate, imho.
Seem to be having problems with the file
str/squ 57
Pls comment, anyone, on the charts below: the relationship between str/squ
with YM/ES.
Do you see if there are connections made among YM, ES and str/squ( 57) from
10:30 through 11:00.
So far the mkt is quite flat.
Thanks.
str signal, up channel all day, some guru said today is tough day, so does it means I had surpass guru level or is it looked like guru level to some and amateur level to another, hmm...
Chart for the morning.
It was a fun morning. A few times I thought I saw an FTT and thought market
would turn south but then price started to move sideways.
regards,
Ivo
today so far...
My ES today
ES 16 April 07
Been using this "approach" on NQ the past few days with some nice preliminary results. Channels on NQ held up nicely for support and resistance and a few breakout trades. If I can find some consistency in it I will post a few charts when I can. For now I only have 3 days of observing and placing small trades...
Todays ES chart. Should be more complete than the last weeks per Jack's instruction.
Greeting guys,
I need help with a few questions if anybody can help.
1.- As some of you know the STR/SQZ doesn't seem to work with esignal software.
I could change my data provider even though I have 6 months worth of layouts and
all my platforms are build on esignal, so I am not very exited about changing.
Either way, does anybody know if the DOM and all other indicator we will use,
will they also be available from esignal? Since esignal users can use MAKs excel
for the STR/SQZ, probably it is not necessary to change to another service.
In case that I HAVE to change, which company should I go with and how much does
it cost ? I imagine the one Spyder uses is the one best suited to annotate for
the ease of using all the colors as indicated. Comments welcome.
2.- The correct color codes for annotating channels and points, can someone post
the list or guide me to where I can find it. I don't recall seeing it in this
thread.
3.- I am correct by stating that we must first be in the black consistently
(even if papertrading) before we start using finer tools like the STR/SQZ ?
Thanks very much for any guidance.
Opie, E-Signal sells a subscription to CME level 2, but to the best of my knowledge it is not accessible to coding. For some reason I thought you were an IB customer. IB has DOM for free in a very clean presentation. Considering the utility of DOM, free is the appropriate price.
Quote from optionpro007:
Greeting guys,
I need help with a few questions if anybody can help.
1.- As some of you know the STR/SQZ doesn't seem to work with esignal software. I could change my data provider even though I have 6 months worth of layouts and all my platforms are build on esignal, so I am not very exited about changing.
Either way, does anybody know if the DOM and all other indicator we will use, will they also be available from esignal? Since esignal users can use MAKs excel for the STR/SQZ, probably it is not necessary to change to another service.
In case that I HAVE to change, which company should I go with and how much does it cost ? I imagine the one Spyder uses is the one best suited to annotate for the ease of using all the colors as indicated. Comments welcome.
2.- The correct color codes for annotating channels and points, can someone post the list or guide me to where I can find it. I don't recall seeing it in this thread.
3.- I am correct by stating that we must first be in the black consistently (even if papertrading) before we start using finer tools like the STR/SQZ ?
Thanks very much for any guidance.
)
Quote from Arthur Deco:
Opie, E-Signal sells a subscription to CME level 2, but to the best of my knowledge it is not accessible to coding. For some reason I thought you were an IB customer. IB has DOM for free in a very clean presentation.
Quote from WGTrader:
OP,
FWIW - I don't use esignal so I can't speak to that, but I use thinkorswim as my charting and trading platform. It does not support custom indicators (such as Str/Squ) so I use Excel for this. You've probably seen my charts, so you can see it does a decent job of annotations, and I like the fact that my charting and trading platform is completely integrated. I can buy and sell directly from a click within the chart. It also supports RT quotes which I bring into my Excel models using DDE. The best part of the TOS platform is it's price (FREE
As far as color coding the annotations, I believe the consensus is green for up (forest) channels and red for down (forest) channels. I use yellow for lateral channels and light gray for tapes and less significant pt 3 channels. I'm not sure if there is a "standard." If there is, I'd like to know too.
WRT your last point, I believe that one can be profitable with the ES using just channels, PV, and the YM. These other tools are additional icing, but I think Jack mentioned that one should continue to practice with all the tools. IMHO, the best thing one can do is annotate their ES and YM charts with accurate gaussians (at least the best they know how) every day, day-in and day-out, then layer in the other tools as they become available and you learn how to use them. I have been sim trading and consistently making money for almost a month now using just channels, PV and the YM, but I'm still holding off trading real money. I want to make sure I just haven't been lucky!
Quote from optionpro007:
Greeting guys,
..
In case that I HAVE to change, which company should I go with and how much does it cost ? I imagine the one Spyder uses is the one best suited to annotate for the ease of using all the colors as indicated. Comments welcome.
..
Quote from optionpro007:
Thanks WG !!
WG in reference to your present results, are you entering and exiting the market or are you in the market at all times ?
Very nice trading, WG! You say these are typical, consistent results - I am impressed! Congrats ...
Quote from WGTrader:
OP,
... Here is my results for today which has been fairly typical for me lately. Hope this answers your question.
Quote from WGTrader:
I have been trading more like FTT to FTT.
Quote from WGTrader:
OP,
I don't try to be in the market at all times. I don't have that much confidence yet. I have been trading more like FTT to FTT. I like to see clear signals and as long as the signals tell me I should stay in (continuation), I stay in. For example, I recognize flaws much better now and have learned (and am still learning) to continue through them. If things get murky for me (it happens a lot!), I get out and wait for better conditions. And If I pick up a point and volume is low, I don't get greedy, I take it and then wait until conditions are better. Here is my results for today which has been fairly typical for me lately. Hope this answers your question.
Quote from ramora:
Well done WG! Are you using stops? Any stop recommendations? Thank you,
Quote from optionpro007:
Thanks WG !!
I think that if we are to trade from the chart directly, then it is imperative to move to a TOS style platform. (I am not sure if IB has that feature) Wonder what Jack or Spyder and the others think about this. Thanks for the heads up.
...
WGT, awesome just awesome man, especially the 10:48-11:39 trade, holding thru
the entire congestion! I might have a heart failure right there
Quote from WGTrader:
OP,
FWIW - I don't use esignal so I can't speak to that, but I use thinkorswim as my charting and trading platform. It does not support custom indicators (such as Str/Squ) so I use Excel for this. You've probably seen my charts, so you can see it does a decent job of annotations, and I like the fact that my charting and trading platform is completely integrated. I can buy and sell directly from a click within the chart. It also supports RT quotes which I bring into my Excel models using DDE. The best part of the TOS platform is it's price (FREE
As far as color coding the annotations, I believe the consensus is green for up (forest) channels and red for down (forest) channels. I use yellow for lateral channels and light gray for tapes and less significant pt 3 channels. I'm not sure if there is a "standard." If there is, I'd like to know too.
WRT your last point, I believe that one can be profitable with the ES using just channels, PV, and the YM. These other tools are additional icing, but I think Jack mentioned that one should continue to practice with all the tools. IMHO, the best thing one can do is annotate their ES and YM charts with accurate gaussians (at least the best they know how) every day, day-in and day-out, then layer in the other tools as they become available and you learn how to use them. I have been sim trading and consistently making money for almost a month now using just channels, PV and the YM, but I'm still holding off trading real money. I want to make sure I just haven't been lucky!
Quote from Tums:
one rule of thumb with sims: make sure the market has traded THROUGH your price.
e.g. if you bid at 1471.00, you can consider your order filled if it has traded at 1469.75. But if the market has just touched your price, some sims will notify you that you are "filled", but in real life you might not.
practice makes perfect
I need more practice
WG, could you tell us, what did you use to go long at 10:48am. Was it based
on the YM upside break or ES volume?
tia.
Quote from optionpro007:
WG, could you tell us, what did you use to go long at 10:48am. Was it based on the YM upside break or ES volume?
tia.
Quote from WGTrader:
OP,
Here was my thinking at the 10:48 trade. The Pt 3 (Forest Level) channel had been established at the 10:25 bar. I actually entered a long position at 10:36 and held it until 10:44 when I sold it and collected 2 points. (I don’t recall exactly why I got out here… things must have appeared murky to me at that point, but I should have stayed in). At 10:48 I entered a long position again because of the breakout of the rather wide lateral channel on the ES at the 10:40 bar. Also my Gaussians were saying that we had nicely increasing black volume which said continuation. So we enter a lateral channel on decreasing red volume and we stayed within the forest level channel. This again said continuation (hold through the flaws). After a breakout of the lateral channel at the 11:30 bar, the Gaussians are showing increasing black volume which says keep holding. Then by 11:39 I was anticipating an FTT, we were well above the 20SMA, I was sitting on some profits, so I exited the position (don’t be greedy I say!). The FTT that I was anticipating did come (the 11:50 bar) and I did go short at 11:49 and 11:50 which I held until 12:28 when I closed out those trades. The volume had dropped off dramatically starting around noon, so I didn’t see any point in remaining in the trade. I took a couple of points and went and had lunch. Hope this description helps.
My chart for the morning.
Trading was not bad but I was clueless for a while around 11:30. I was expecting
a point 3 down after the breakout but instead we got increasing black.
regards,
Ivo
ES 17 April 07
ES for today.
-Mike
Today I finally got a tool that tracks prv working. It is part of my s/s
tool. I spent too much time watching it today I think. I chalk it up to getting
used to how it works and having prv to reference. Before I was too haphazard
with prv.
My biggest prob today was around 11 - 12 or so. I got a bit lost there.
my practice of the day
es 5m
This is my log for 17 April 07, all sim trades.
Trade 1
11:07:03 short at 1480.50
Following FTT at 10:50, RTL break, increasing red prv on es and ym, fbp
11:15:10 exit at 1481, -0.5, tape RTL break, increasing black prv ym and es
Debrief: short dominant not established. Not a pt 3.
Trade 2
11:21:14 short at 1480.5
Pt 3 on previous bar, increasing red prv,
11:31:34 exit at 1481, -0.5, FTT on es and ym, inc black prv ym
Debrief: ran straight into ftt, short dominant not established, still on long
LTR traverse
Trade 3
13:45:44 short at 1477.50
Short dominant, es and ym at RTL, inc red prv ym,
13:48:15 exit at 1478.25, -0.75 , ftt ym,
Debrief: should have been monitoring for ftt after volatility expansion
Trade 4
13:59:34 short at 1478
Short dominant, tape rtl break on es under 20sma
14:02:25 exit at 1478.50, -0.5, inc black prv es and ym, tape rtl bo
Debrief: shorted on a pt 3 long
Trade 5
14:47:20 long 1480.75
Long dominant, increasing prv es and ym,
15:59:03 exit at 1480, -0.75
Debrief: entry after volatility expansion, should have been looking for ftt, ran
into it
Trade 6
15:28:18 short at 1478.25
Short dominant after FTT (14:50), rtl bo and r2r, , pt 3 on prev bar
15:31:32 reversed at 1479.25, -1, realised this is an FTT
Debrief: correct decision. Conscious that this is not forest level but late in
the day
Trade 7
15:31:32 long at 1479.25 (reversal)
Decided to take ftt entry
15:47:54 exit 1478.75, -0.5, red prv ym, new pt3 short, decision to reverse
Debrief: too late in the day and slipping down to bug level
Trade 8
15:47:54 short 1478.75 reversal
Short dominant, pt 3
15:59:22 exit 1479.25, -0.5
Debrief: this really is too late in the day!
8 trades, -5pts
Observations: missed all the real pt 3's, forgetting to monitor for FTT after
volatility expansion, must not get tempted to trade so late in the day, make
better observation of direction of dominant, don’t mix levels – forest, tree
etc. Chart posted earlier.
I attached my chart of squ/str during the afternoon down trend. I've added prv to it at the bottom. Right now I'm just observing.
Here is the day so far. Both ES and YM.
I will post my log sheet after I get it scanned.
-Mike
Here is a log sheet of the first 23 bars today.
-Mike
Back to the USA
Playing 'catch up' today, before heading over to Chicago tomorrow morning. I
do plan to have my laptop with me this trip. I hope everyone had a productive
week.
- Spydertrader
__________________
ES 18 April 07
Today's ES. The morning was confusing, but it was a good day nonetheless!
Hi,
I'm starting to learn this methodology, this is the first chart I publish. I
have some difficulties to draw the channels and the tapes...price is always
moving to other way
I post my chart for today with all anotations I have made, does anyone can help
identify my errors ? (sorry I dont have a Log, but I try to annotate when I
should Buy and Sell)
It's very difficult to always look for P, then V, then channel, then YM, then
back to price, then DOM, then T&S...new channel, price, volume, volume..price.
thx
My chart for today.
This was my first complete day of trading. Until now I only traded the morning
and in the future I will mostly just trade the morning.
I did well. Caught all important moves.
I am happy I sold at 1484 at 15:35 but there was no wisdom involved :-) I just
decided to take profits and exited so the selloff after that surprised me
because I did not consider the 15:30 bar to be an FTT. I suppose bias for
tomorrow is down.
I really wonder how this is annotated on the graphs of others and I will study
it. It was increasing red immediately without any retrace. I wonder if anyone
saw this coming. Is there a FTT and where is it?
BTW I use yellow lines at volume window when I think price is moving sideways in
this period. My AHA moment of the last few days is how price and volume behave
after the FTT. After FTT we need non-dominant volume to confirm the FTT but if
price moves sideways and not against the dominant trend then expect a point 3
with the trend, not against. Of course you have to check for +PRV. Even if the
trendline is broken I notice this. (providing the lateral continues). So if you
enter on FTT and you see a lateral thereafter it might be wise to reverse
somewhere in the lateral. This is just provisional from observing and no final
conclusion. (nothing is final in life after all :-)
The funny thing of these AHA moments is we already know it deep inside or we
read it already. But that's something different from really understanding it and
acting accordingly.
regards,
Ivo
Today's ES.
-Mike
now the file
the last "S" should be "B"
If you are just starting to learn the focus on Price and volume and major
channels, not tapes, or DOM or T&S or anything that is so far over your head
right now it will drown you.
Spydie made it clear that you start withthe basics and no going ahead cause you
will get overloaded
Quote from PepeIlegal:
Hi,
I'm starting to learn this methodology, this is the first chart I publish. I have some difficulties to draw the channels and the tapes...price is always moving to other way
I post my chart for today with all anotations I have made, does anyone can help identify my errors ? (sorry I dont have a Log, but I try to annotate when I should Buy and Sell)
It's very difficult to always look for P, then V, then channel, then YM, then back to price, then DOM, then T&S...new channel, price, volume, volume..price.
thx
Quote from PepeIlegal:
It's very difficult to always look for P, then V, then channel, then YM, then back to price, then DOM, then T&S...new channel, price, volume, volume..price.
__________________
Today's ES Chart
04-18-2007 ES chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
04-18-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
I strongly encourage you to go back to the beginning of this Journal and follow the instructions as described. When a new trader begins to learn these methods, they begin by observing while learning to annotate channels and Gaussians. Adding additional tools before one has spent the appropriate time developing experience provides a recipe for disaster.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Avi 8:
Today's ES.
-Mike
welcome back spydertrader!!!
I hope you had a great time in DR, where in Punta Cana did you stay at? The Riu?
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
04-18-2007 ES chart
- Spydertrader
ivo-
thanks on the charts.
I think spyder mismarked pt 2 and pt 3 on his last channel.
The FTT arrow looks to be before the 'pt 2' which should be pt 3.
-Mike
Quote from PepeIlegal:
I read it...but I will read it again...
thx...
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
Am I correct when I see you have your last FTT and point 2 on one line? How is this possible? And where do you see R to R meaning where do you see the first red?
__________________
.
Quote from Churn2Learn:
I hope you had a great time in DR, where in Punta Cana did you stay at? The Riu?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
The FTT's represent the Blue / Green up channel - where I have the red Point One marked (15:30 bar). The red channel is a 'tape' which grew into a channel, and yes, I put the numbers on the wrong bars. I apologize for the confusion. Points 1 and 2 should be on the same bar with Point Three forming where I incorrectly placed Point Two on my chart.
From the High of the 15:25 bar to when Price Breaks the price channel is where we have the R2R transition. Depending on how one had their up channel drawn in, the increasing red occurred at the time Price left the up channel.
I hope that provided some clarity.
- Spydertrader
I was just curious if Spyder or Jack are planning or would plan maybe a
weekend cram course starting at the beginning (suggested computer setups,
service providers, best vendors for tools, etc. to basic setups) and going
through to some advanced techniques? I think there are many of us that would fly
to OH or AZ to do so. I know Spyder volunteered to fly to Surf but what if many
of us flew to YOU for a classroom setting one weekend?
I realize Jack already does a regular get-together but I don't believe there has
been anything scheduled in a classroom setting for beginners from beginning to
advanced.
Thank you both (and everyone else too) so much for sharing so much to newbies!!
You are so awesome for helping others and only expecting one to share the wisdom
forward!!
Quote from theeminitrader:
.. weekend cram course ...
WG
If you have stopped LOL , it
was a very serious question.
I realize that not much of a dent would be made but I suspect many of us would
enjoy MEETING our mentors while learning some basics in more depth while having
a bit advanced stuff for people at other levels. Supplimental classroom learning
has worked for many decades and I am sure it will in the future.
I may be in the minority in my suggestion but I thought I would throw it on the
table since I suspect even advanced students would like to join in.
Re: WG
Quote from theeminitrader:
If you have stopped LOL
I realize that not much of a dent would be made but I suspect many of us would enjoy MEETING our mentors while learning some basics in more depth while having a bit advanced stuff for people at other levels. Supplimental classroom learning has worked for many decades and I am sure it will in the future.
I may be in the minority in my suggestion but I thought I would throw it on the table since I suspect even advanced students would like to join in.
Re: WG
Quote from theeminitrader:
If you have stopped LOL
Source?
Quote from WGTrader:
Pardon me for LOL but IMHO there is no way one is going to even come close to making a dent in learning this in a single weekend. Yea you might pick up a few of the basics, but you can learn all you need by going through this journal. Pr0crast has put together some really good summary info of the first two months and Bundlemaker has put together a nice video on channels. I know it may seem overwhelming at first, but you just have to slog through it. There is no other way.
__________________
They kill horses, don't they?
Re: Source?
Quote from oximoron:
Sorry, new here. Can you give links to PrOcrast / Bundlemaker resources?
Thx
My ES chart from 17th....
Quote from jack hershey:
__________________
Rod
"My destiny will NOT be denied. His will be done." - Patton
1 st hour no surprise....
Morning today.
-Mike
Morning Log sheet.
-Mike
Chart for the morning.
I had some problems and doubts after the point three on my chart at 11:40.
Although I did consider it a point three, I got negative stretch values all the
time, especially after the pt3. Not just neutral but real negative (-4 or -5) so
I reversed.
The mistake here that a negative stretch value on itself is not a reason to
reverse. It can be a reason to not take the trade or to exit because I expected
positive or neutral values after the point three. I focussed on a single data
element instead of the whole dataset.
Because after that we got the FTT... so I guess there's a relation between the
neg stretch values and the FTT. It's the context that matters. Not just one
thing.
regards,
Ivo
Today's ES.
ES 19 April 07
-2.5 pts today
Re: Re: WG
Quote from WGTrader:
threemini,
I may have sounded a little harsh, so forgive me if I did. I understand where you were going with it, but I think you need to focus on the information that is right in front of you (this journal and all the great people that are posting to it). Yes it would be nice to meet Jack, Spyder and others, even just to shake their hands for being so incredibly generous with their knowledge and time. Perhaps that day will come... Good luck in your journey.
Best regards,
WGTrader
DKM
Thanks for sharing Your trading results. I wonder why didn't you hold your
position longer, if you are only simming for the moment?
In paper trading, I do not feel uneasy(nervous) at all; only in doing real
money, I tended clicking/jumpy often, then go back simming again.
If you do forest level today, for instance, you could have entered for long at
11:05 and out at 12:35 for one entry. Sure, hindsight is easy.
I want to make a habit of drawing every tape.
Morning ES & YM
-Mike
Morning Log sheet
-Mike
Quote from Avi 8:
Morning Log sheet
-Mike
Quote from palinuro:
Mike, thanks for posting the logs, they're very helpful.
It's also a much better log sheet than what I'm using; is the template available online?
Also, I noticed QCharts had much lower volume at the start than Mak's IB PRV sheet, and also that price lagged IB as much as 1 point for the first hour. Was that what you were noting re bar 4?
-palinuro
so far
Chart of 4/16/07 available?
Quote from WGTrader:
OP,
I don't try to be in the market at all times. I don't have that much confidence yet. I have been trading more like FTT to FTT. I like to see clear signals and as long as the signals tell me I should stay in (continuation), I stay in. For example, I recognize flaws much better now and have learned (and am still learning) to continue through them. If things get murky for me (it happens a lot!), I get out and wait for better conditions. And If I pick up a point and volume is low, I don't get greedy, I take it and then wait until conditions are better. Here is my results for today which has been fairly typical for me lately. Hope this answers your question.
__________________
They kill horses, don't they?
Today's ES. Have a good weekend all.
-Mike
a profitable day, a profitable week, a profitable month...
Re: Chart of 4/16/07 available?
Quote from oximoron:
WGTrader, nice results you posted for 4/16. Any chance you have your marked-up chart to go with it?
Thanks!
Today's ES. Have a great weekend everybody!
Hey Spydertrader
I was short today at 8950 at 15:10 and felt very good about the trade, the 15:15
bar BO my RTL and everything seemed to be going great. Obviously, as we know,
price shot up at the end of the day. I got out and still made a profit but feel
that I should have noticed earlier that price wasnt going to continue lower but,
rather a new pt 3 of an up channel was forming instead.
After looking over my charts again, I feel like the 15:22 YM bar was the
critical turning point in signaling the ES would not longer continue lower. What
is your take on this? Is this bar significant to you? Thanks!
Steve
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Hey Spydertrader
..
After looking over my charts again, I feel like the 15:22 YM bar was the critical turning point in signaling the ES would not longer continue lower. What is your take on this? Is this bar significant to you? Thanks!
Steve
Yeah, I mean I thought for sure that the 15:10 bar would form a new pt 3 down
channel but then price stalled from 15:20-15:30 and then obviously went to new
highs. I think my short from 8950 was the right play for all we know the mkt
could have really sold off from that point. Instead though we formed a new pt 3
up channel. Like I said, b/c my price was pretty good, the mkt still moved
nicely in my favor before I was proved incorrect, I just wish I paid closer
attention to the ym and "listened" to that 15:22 bar
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Hey Spydertrader
I was short today at 8950 at 15:10 and felt very good about the trade, the 15:15 bar BO my RTL and everything seemed to be going great. Obviously, as we know, price shot up at the end of the day. I got out and still made a profit but feel that I should have noticed earlier that price wasnt going to continue lower but, rather a new pt 3 of an up channel was forming instead.
After looking over my charts again, I feel like the 15:22 YM bar was the critical turning point in signaling the ES would not longer continue lower. What is your take on this? Is this bar significant to you? Thanks!
Steve
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Hey Spydertrader
I was short today at 8950 at 15:10 and felt very good about the trade, the 15:15 bar BO my RTL and everything seemed to be going great. Obviously, as we know, price shot up at the end of the day. I got out and still made a profit but feel that I should have noticed earlier that price wasnt going to continue lower but, rather a new pt 3 of an up channel was forming instead.
After looking over my charts again, I feel like the 15:22 YM bar was the critical turning point in signaling the ES would not longer continue lower. What is your take on this? Is this bar significant to you? Thanks!
Steve
My ES chart for 04/20 ...
After the 15:22 bar formed on the YM, the ES was 8825 by 8850 (I was short
from 8950). This is when I should have reversed again (I believe). Instead I
waited a little longer, possibly in disbelief, and made only .50 instead of the
full point. Still a profit however I want to be able to see truth sooner than I
did here. Live and learn
Also, I would have a hard time seeing 15:22 bar as a point 3 of a possible down
channel on YM since the bar had higher lows, and higher highs with tremendous
buy volume (superceding the previous selloff vol). From 15:16-15:20 bars on YM
it looked as if the mkt would really selloff into the close but then that 15:22
bar came and I think this is the point in time where the experts are bailing on
their shorts and reversing into their longs. Time, practice and experience will
get us to that point, no doubt about it.
Quote from ivob:
Steve, when exactly did you reverse to be on the right side again?
IMO the 15:22 YM could have easily been a point 3 down. It's just that there was no increasing red on the next few bars and no tape broken (ES)
regards,
Ivo
In the sct camtasia I downloaded from procrasts site, Jack mentions a previous camtasia and a following one. Are these available anywhere?
lastest one 4-12-07
http://www.bluehost.com/cgi-bin/uft...eruniverse.info
Procrast,
Are you still compiling this thread in sections like you have in the past? I
haven't seen any downloads in awhile. If not, I need to get crackin' and do it
myself.
Does anyone have instructions on getting Mak's PRV and stretch squeeze spread
sheet to work ?
Here is the link to the spread sheet:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...prv#post1046171
I followed the directions here and got numerous error meesage.
I seem to remember that this spread sheet was used somewhere in this journal but
I couldn't find it.
The more I understand the SCT methods the more convinced I become that the key
is recognizing chart/channel formations and waiting on PRV to equal to exceed
the medium pace level along with a corresponding intrabar price momentum to
execute the trade.
Quote from 8833broc:
...The more I understand the SCT methods the more convinced I become that the key is recognizing chart/channel formations and waiting on PRV to equal to exceed the medium pace level along with a corresponding intrabar price momentum to execute the trade.
I wonder of those simplified rules could be coded into an automated system. I know I can test 'tick level' systems in NeoTicker, would be an interesting exercise.
Quote from 8833broc:
Does anyone have instructions on getting Mak's PRV and stretch squeeze spread sheet to work ?
Here is the link to the spread sheet:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...prv#post1046171
I followed the directions here and got numerous error meesage.
I seem to remember that this spread sheet was used somewhere in this journal but I couldn't find it.
The more I understand the SCT methods the more convinced I become that the key is recognizing chart/channel formations and waiting on PRV to equal to exceed the medium pace level along with a corresponding intrabar price momentum to execute the trade.
This is a paper trade I did today for 10 pips profit....
ES YM so far ....hope all you got bar #5 FTT it was a nice one ...
I picked one doozy of a day to start trading again (off for 3 weeks for a
rehab/move).
I count 11 change signals (r2r or b2b) on the YM in row. Adjacent signals.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Today's ES
04-23-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
04-23-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
My ES for today
I have 2 pictures that describe the problems that I am having getting Mak's
spreadsheet to work with IB. One problem is the SYMBOL ES_FUT_200606_GLOBEX_USD
in cell B3.
I am not familiar with this syntax for eminis. I am assuming this will be
changed to ES_FUT_200704_GLOBEX_USD ( the 04 is for april). Is this correct?
Next I have 2 jpeg images that shows the messages that I am getting. The first
message is about opening a workbook and the next message about myid.exe not
being found.
I have installed the IB API and IB is configured to enable DDE clients.
Can anyone help?
thank you
please see last posting. Here is myid image attached
Quote from 8833broc:
Can anyone help?
__________________
IB syntax
Quote from 8833broc:
please see last posting. Here is myid image attached
Quote from 8833broc:
please see last posting. Here is myid image attached
only traded the morning.
did the rest of the tape as an exercise.
heads up:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Consumer Confidence
10:00ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00ET
Re: IB syntax
Quote from PointOne:
ES_FUT_200706_GLOBEX_USD
YM_FUT_200706_ECBOT_USD
This also works for any IB ticker:
SGXNK_FUT_200706_SGX_JPY
You should have already allowed for DDE and ActiveX under the Configure-API menu on TWS.
I assume you do fill in cell B2 with your userid (the same as the login for TWS) and have just blanked it out for posting here?
Open the worksheet with macros disabled, don't update values, make these changes then save, then reload and let the macros run and allow updates. The first time you load with new tickers leave it alone for at least 5 minutes to run through one whole bar (the next time you open it should work fine).
I have a different question regarding Mak's tool -
How does it calculate the fairvalue offset for the str/squ? It doesn't seem to
correspond to the QCharts histogram ...
The fv offset has to be inserted manually daily.
Thanks, Bearbelly. I don't see any labels for it, where do you insert the value?
Does it HAVE to touch to not be a FTT ?
Hi all,
I was looking at a longer trendline / channel on the ES 240 min globex all
sessions. The last few moves up and down it has not quite touched the trendline.
When you view it on the 240 min it looks like it is very very close but on a 5 -
15 min could be 5 points away.
Does it still count as a FTT if it is very close to not touching ? ie: does an
FTT have to be atleast like 25% or so away from the trendline to be considered a
true FTT ?
Cheers
Re: Does it HAVE to touch to not be a FTT ?
Quote from Razor:
Hi all,
I was looking at a longer trendline / channel on the ES 240 min globex all sessions. The last few moves up and down it has not quite touched the trendline. When you view it on the 240 min it looks like it is very very close but on a 5 - 15 min could be 5 points away.
Does it still count as a FTT if it is very close to not touching ? ie: does an FTT have to be atleast like 25% or so away from the trendline to be considered a true FTT ?
Cheers
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Re: Does it HAVE to touch to not be a FTT ?
Quote from bundlemaker:
I believe Spyder said something similar to ... "if it doesn't touch it's an FTT".
Chart for the morning.
In my opinion price at the moment is just moving sideways so I'm still long even
though it went thru RTL.
regards,
Ivo
Hi,
On my ES chart the price does not FTT on the first channel down.....weird:
Quote from ivob:
Chart for the morning.
In my opinion price at the moment is just moving sideways so I'm still long even though it went thru RTL.
regards,
Ivo
HI Razor,
I think your channel it's not well drawn...
In a down channel pnts 1 and 3 should be in the "upper" line.
Regards,
Hey, thanks for the help
It looks like you are correct; however, why does point 1 start there and not at
that first high ?
Thanks again
EDIT: Oh wait, ok I just re-read it a few times and I think it sunk in "In a
down channel pnts 1 and 3 should be in the "upper" line."
Thanks again ;)
Quote from PepeIlegal:
HI Razor,
I think your channel it's not well drawn...
In a down channel pnts 1 and 3 should be in the "upper" line.
Regards,
Quote from Razor:
Hey, thanks for the help
It looks like you are correct; however, why does point 1 start there and not at that first high ?
Thanks again
EDIT: Oh wait, ok I just re-read it a few times and I think it sunk in "In a down channel pnts 1 and 3 should be in the "upper" line."
Thanks again ;)
HI Razor, you need to include Volume in your chart...
Regards Mr_Black
HI guys,
I hear ya, I have been reading but sometimes things don't sink in for me unless
I ask questions and get responses (that response on drawing the trendline 1-2-3
makes so much more sense now even though I read the threads on drawing
them....weird how it sunk in from that response and someone actually drawing
lines on MY chart). I will keep reading and re-reading though.
I actually have volume on another chart that I click on so I am always looking
at it because I click back and forth between the charts
Thanks for the help
My chart so far...
Quote from Mr_Black:
My chart so far...
Razor,
Yes. Well done !!
I'm learning too...but if I can somehow help you, please don't be afraid to ask.
You should prepare your chart Display in a way that you can see Price and Volume
all together (it would be nice if you have some PRV indicator too)
Hey thanks Pepe,
I will get the volume on there and look into the PRV indicator (have not reached
there really on my reading yet, or I may have and it didn't sink in...LOL).
Thanks again for the offer of help and good learning to you.
Cheers
Quote from PepeIlegal:
Yes. Well done !!
I'm learning too...but if I can somehow help you, please don't be afraid to ask.
You should prepare your chart Display in a way that you can see Price and Volume all together (it would be nice if you have some PRV indicator too)
Quote from Razor:
Hi,
On my ES chart the price does not FTT on the first channel down.....weird:
Have done but will do again as I am a slow learner
Thanks
Quote from Tums:
Razor:
I would suggest you to start off by reading the first 4 pages of this thread. I know we are at 500+ some pages now, and it seems like a daunting task to go back to page one. But the first 4 pages contain the most important information. We do want to see you start off at the right footing, it will make catching up so much easier to do.
Spyder has detailed instruction on how to set up the charts. Give it a quick read, so that we can be on the same page.
Best regards
Tums
Today's ES
04-24-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
04-24-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's ES
Hi,
DKM asked me how I enter on pt 3.
I wait for second tape to be broken. See attached sniplet.
Left is ES, right is YM. pt3 I marked on both charts happens at the same time.
Note on YM. After pt 2 you look for pt3 up. I draw a grey steep tape. It's
broken. I do nothing. Then draw another tape, I enter when that one is broken =
pt3 which corresponds with pt3 marked on ES at the same time.
Of course it's also possible to just draw a wider channel on YM and this is
often something I do. It's just the "second" time I wanted to point out. Even on
the same bar on YM after closing at 11:02 I will wait for price to reach the
high for the second time (and not fall back). Right after that we get confirming
str/sq value etc and we know we are ok. Another option is to draw the tape on YM
using the highs of bars 10:48 and 10:50 on YM. Whatever, I will enter if it's
broken the second time.
Entering on "second" time is not something that only applies on YM (just in this
example that's the case). We see often the same thing on ES. It can either be
the second tape that is broken or it can be one tape that is broken for the
second time. I just learned to wait just a little longer when I think :"this is
the moment".
Remember, first is a fade. Second is a go.
regards,
Ivo
I have a question about dominate volume. Up until 10:30 the dominate volume
is down and the trend is down. Then we have a start of a new uptrend with pt. 1
at 10:30, pt. 2 at 10:45 and pt. 3 at 11:00. Once we start the new uptrend
should we be concerned with the dominate down volume of the previous downtrend
OR should we be focusing on the current uptrend and volume at hand?
The reason I ask is sometimes the new uptrend can just be retrace for a new
point 3 in the downtrend and sometimes it’s not. I’m just trying to be on the
right side of the mkt.
Thxs
focusing on the current uptrend and volume at hand.
Nikkei formation
Take a look at the attached Nikkei chart and tell me what happens next. The
final bar shown is complete and is in very dry-up.
No Str/Squ.
(I've not embedded the chart as it could be considered OT.)
Re: Nikkei formation
Quote from PointOne:
Take a look at the attached Nikkei chart and tell me what happens next.
__________________
Quote from nkhoi:
(2) price move side way when blk vol decrease in up channel
quiz
This is my shot at it and I didn't even look yet at anyone else's
?
Re: Nikkei formation
Quote from PointOne:
Take a look at the attached Nikkei chart and tell me what happens next. The final bar shown is complete and is in very dry-up.
No Str/Squ.
(I've not embedded the chart as it could be considered OT.)
Re: Nikkei formation
The dominant trend of the forest is down. The break out of the RTL (brown) does not show a strong B2B relative to the previous volume levels and goes into a lateral with decreasing volume. This does not represent continuation of a dominant uptrend therefore the latest action is likely a larger retrace creating a new point 3 (down) of the forest as its channel is widened. So IMO the RTL will be broken and price will resume down.
Quote from PointOne:
Take a look at the attached Nikkei chart and tell me what happens next. The final bar shown is complete and is in very dry-up.
No Str/Squ.
(I've not embedded the chart as it could be considered OT.)
S.,
Welcome back.
Hope you did not deplete the Tequila inventory.
Doug
My ES for today.
Today's ES
04-05-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM
04-25-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Trying TradeStation - My chart for today:
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
STR - SQU
In case anyone has an interest, here is
Today's STR-SQU Video in Windows Media Player format.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hi,
Does anyone whom posts their charts end
of day ever post their PL or their entry and exit points ? I enjoy looking at
the charts and comparing to them what I have tried to draw in during the day but
I would like to see how the pros actually make money on these charts / method.
Thanks & best regards
Quote from Razor:
Hi,
Does anyone whom posts their charts end
of day ever post their PL or their entry and exit points ?
My question was not intended to provoke these type comments. I would like to
see how people actually trade this method....I don't even need to see a PL
(although it would be great for motivation to continue trying to decipher this
method) but seeing entry and exit points would really help in the understanding
of this method as well IMHO
Cheers
Quote from version77:
Looks like a line drawing contest to me...
Re: STR - SQU
Quote from Spydertrader:
In case anyone has an interest, here is Today's STR-SQU Video in Windows Media Player format.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Razor:
I would like to see how people actually trade this method....
seeing entry and exit points would really help in the understanding of this method as well IMHO
Re: STR - SQU
Quote from Spydertrader:
In case anyone has an interest, here is Today's STR-SQU Video in Windows Media Player format.
- Spydertrader
Re: STR - SQU
Quote from Spydertrader:
In case anyone has an interest,
- Spydertrader
Another example of this morning where the break of the second tape formed the
up signal. First break was a fade, second a go. Of course same time you check
other instruments (YM, PRV, str/sq).
BTW the pt3 was also (in my drawing) an FTT on the lateral.
regard,
Ivo
Cart before the horse
Quote from Razor:
Does anyone whom posts their charts end
of day ever post their PL or their entry and exit points ? I enjoy looking at the charts and comparing to them what I have tried to draw in during the day but I would like to see how the pros actually make money on these charts / method.
__________________
Re: Re: STR - SQU
Quote from ivob:
Yesterday you mentioned "odd and even harmonics" which happen near or at a trendline. What do you mean by this?
__________________
Quote from version77:
It looks so complicated that it boggles my poor mind...
__________________
Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
04-05-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: STR - SQU
Quote from ivob:
You mentioned on washed trades you take a max of 1-2 tick loss (occasionally 3). Does this also mean that that's the maximum heat you would take or are there moments when you're down more and price goes back to your 2-3 ticks and you get out?
to react quicker. The resulting
reversal then provided me the 'loss' for that particular trade.
Quote from ivob:
For example on downtrend and you are short, if there is no FTT but price does break RTL. So there is just a normal non-dom traverse. You mentioned somewhere in the beginning of this thread the procedure is to reverse on point 3 up after this BO (I am not talking beginners here, beginners exit on RTL break of course). However, this may imply you could be down more than 2-3 ticks or am I wrong.
__________________
Re: Welcome Back
Quote from dougcs:
Hope you did not deplete the Tequila inventory.
__________________
Re: Re: STR - SQU
Quote from ramora:
What are the highs and lows of each bar if not the extreme?
__________________
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from dougcs:
I believe we both had an FTT at today's noon (eastern time, 11am Texas Time) bar. I did not see any S/S signal in either my data or yours for this. Was there some indication from the S/S that I missed? I did see from the YM PV that this was a likely FTT but this was at the 1102 TT (12:02 ET) bar. Any comments are welcome.
__________________
Re: Cart before the horse
Fair enough, thanks
Quote from Spydertrader:
As you no doubt read during the beginning of this Journal, I advise spending a great deal of time observing the market.
As others have advised, you need to focus on learning the methods at this point in time. Concerning yourself over the profitability of others, or focusing on entry and exit points, provides a recipe for your own failure. I've watched (through your posts) as you have repeatedly attempted to place the cart far in front of the horse. The systematic process laid out before you requires a great deal of individual effort to learn. The reason for such effort stems from the fact you are learning an entirely different way of looking at the market and trading. Again, I encourage you to take the time necessary to insure your own success, and review, practice (and review again if necessary) the key points discussed in the many pages contained within this Journal.
I am confident other traders will agree with the advice I have given you here.
- Spydertrader
Re: Nikkei formation
Quote from PointOne:
Take a look at the attached Nikkei chart and tell me what happens next. The final bar shown is complete and is in very dry-up.
No Str/Squ.
(I've not embedded the chart as it could be considered OT.)
in defense of my 'continue up' diagnosis I tend to think in term of ES tree
level. However the forest level may be more appropriate for this particular
contract. btw, good job R/R.
Re: Re: Re: STR - SQU
Quote from Spydertrader:
No. I do not 'take heat' in the sense most people use the term. When I say I 'take a loss' I mean to say that price has moved a certain distance before I realise I misread the market. Sometimes, I exit with a small profit. Other times, I reverse with a break even (wash) trade. Occasionally, I reverse and take a loss because I wasn't paying close enough attention, or the market moved too fast, or I was just plain too stupid
I don't make error's based on P & L. When I make an error, I have failed to read the market correctly for whatever reason. In such a case, I immediately recognize my error and immediately take action to fix the incorrect action I previously made. The distance price has moved before I take corrective action results from a factor of time. The faster I recognize my error, the more likely I end up with a small profit or wash trade. The longer it takes for me to recognize my error, the greater the opportunity for me to experience a loss. Those that have seen me trade live often note how quickly I reverse position once I recognize me error. I do not play the game of thinking, hoping or believing "it will come back." I take immediate action.
I hope the above post provides the clarification you were looking for.
- Spydertrader
Quote from nkhoi:
in defense of my 'continue up' diagnosis I tend to think in term of ES tree level. However the forest level may be more appropriate for this particular contract. btw, good job R/R.
Re: Cart before the horse
Quote from Spydertrader:
As you no doubt read during the beginning of this Journal, I advise spending a great deal of time observing the market.
As others have advised, you need to focus on learning the methods at this point in time. Concerning yourself over the profitability of others, or focusing on entry and exit points, provides a recipe for your own failure. I've watched (through your posts) as you have repeatedly attempted to place the cart far in front of the horse. The systematic process laid out before you requires a great deal of individual effort to learn. The reason for such effort stems from the fact you are learning an entirely different way of looking at the market and trading. Again, I encourage you to take the time necessary to insure your own success, and review, practice (and review again if necessary) the key points discussed in the many pages contained within this Journal.
I am confident other traders will agree with the advice I have given you here.
- Spydertrader
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Just do it !
Re: Re: Cart before the horse
Thanks for the motivation bundlemaker
Quote from bundlemaker:
I'd like to say a few words beyond simply agreeing with Spyder's comments, as it may well help others. Roughly 4-6 weeks ago I felt like I was really starting to get this whole deal. Scratch that, I was getting it. Several weeks of daily chart work after having put the bigger puzzle pieces together appeared to be paying off. Not in $$$ and cents but in confidence and knowing I can produce results.
Then, I had a major personal interuption in the form of a move. I didn't look at a chart in at least 3 weeks. I started again this Monday. My work didn't look pretty and I wasn't feeling too confident. In the past, I would have sank into a semi-depressed state as I would mentally tell myself how this system or that just didn't work, how I couldn't do it, etc etc.
This time, I handled it differently. I just did it, sans all the internal noise (me talking to myself). I recovered about 90% of where I was in just 3 days and am ready to progress further.
What's my point? For anyone still on the fence and still wishing to do this, but feel they need proof or whatever, my sincere invitation is to just do it. External proof won't help. You need internal proof, satisfy yourself that YOU can do it. This is what most who fail lack. THere is only one way to get internal proof: do it.
Re: Re: Nikkei formation
Quote from PointOne:
At the time I thought the market can only do one thing next, given the context and sequence.
Re: Re: Cart before the horse
Quote from bundlemaker:
THere is only one way to get internal proof: do it.
Re: Re: Re: STR - SQU
Quote from Spydertrader:
The bars represent where the STR / SQU fell at the close of the bar. The Qcharts Histogram does not display the 'extreme' values once time passes. For this reason, I have never posted a 'chart' of STR / SQU, but felt some might find some value in a video (where one could see the extremes recorded in real time).
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: STR - SQU
Quote from dougcs:
Do you consider the extreme values or just the closing value?
Quote from dougcs:
When is an appropriate time to use it. In a recent post you mentioned it works at "spikes" and I'm not sure I know what you mean by a "spike".
Quote from dougcs:
In my charting I see +/-2 values on almost every bar so maybe it may be my data source is causing my confusion.
__________________
chart for the morning.
regards
Ivo
hi Spy,
Please help.
Assistance
Quote from Willleung:
Please help.
__________________
Re: Assistance
Quote from Spydertrader:
1. It doesn't appear that your automated bands (BB or Keltner) have provided you any assistance in locating an FTT.
2. I recommend learning to draw in channels.
3. Your Volume bars need changed so you can differentiate between red and black volume bars. Same with your price bars.
4. You might find improved results by focusing on Channels and Gaussians and learn to manually trade the method before attempting to automate entry and exit.
5. Search for ETLurker. He has some ideas which might be applicable to your efforts.
- Spydertrader
Today's ES.
-Mike
Today's ES
04-26-2007 ES Chart
- Spydrtrader
__________________
Today's YM
04-26-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
STR / SQU Video
Today's STR / SQU Video for those with an interest.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's ES
ES 5m
Hi,
I post here my analysis for ES today.
I continue to have many problems avaliating the Flaws in Real-time. I always
believe they are FFTs. (I'm only using ES p,v and YM p,v along with the
indicators, but lately I try to not look at them, I try to concentrate in PV
only).
Also, I try to "hindsight" many times the FFTs. I think this can be because I am
to worry to spot them
Today, at 11h00 (EST) the YM made one FFT about 4 or 6 min before the ES. I
didn't expected that and I immediatly short (simulate) the ES, just to see him
go further more 2pnts up...
but I'm confident that I will get there....oh yea!
if someone can give me any advice on this (channels+gaussians+price) I will
appreciate it very much.. I am reading the journals again and I'm organizing the
information of the posts (spydertrader, jack, mac,etc) in a MindMap to be easy
to recall the information (to many posts to remember them all)
Thank you all,
Pedro.
now the file..
Pedro-
Don't worry so much about the flaws, we will learn about those latter in the
year.
Please go back to the first pages of this journal and set your chart up
according to the insructions. ie no indicators, we are not using them on future
charts.
The gaussians are critical to this method. Channels and gaussians must be
completely understood before moving to any other tool, including the YM. There
is plenty of direction at the start of this journal.
Good job with the chart, keep it up and strive for each channel drawn and
annotated.
Remember - perfect practice makes perfect.
-Mike
Quote from PepeIlegal:
Hi,
..
if someone can give me any advice on this (channels+gaussians+price) ..
Thank you all,
Pedro.
OK, done!
I just put them because I thought it could make things easier.
But I understand that the focus must be only in PV for now.
Price: Formations+channels
Volume: Gaussians, PRV
Thank you.
ES 26 April 07
Fanning out the channels (recycling pt 1) to keep in synch with the gaussians
seemed to help although I have ended up with a couple of channels quite
different from Spyder. Not clear why an old pt 3 is often used as the new pt 1
(e.g. low of 10:30 bar).
Hey dkm,
Missed you in today's chat.
I don't think it important to have all our channels the same. When I started
doing the charts, I was concerned that mine didn't look the same as Spyder's.
But I realized it didn't matter. Only that I was on the right side of the
market. For instance, today at 13:20 shows a BO of the RTL. You show it on your
chart as a 1-2-3 starting at 11:55. On my chart it is a PT 3 of a larger
channel. But so what. We both 'see' the BO and are both on the right side of the
market, ie short.
I draw a 'larger' channel just to force myself to the 'forest' level. I don't
think it matters one way or another.
-Mike
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: STR - SQU
Quote from Spydertrader:
I consider all values. You use STR / SQU in the NOW. Whatever the value is when you go to obtain the data is the important value.
Check the STR / SQU value near trend lines. See the attached .gif file for examples of 'spike' bars.
{SNIP}
Anything in between +2 and -2 we consider as 'noise' and observe as 'no signal' given. values greater than +2 and less than - 2 create a signal. The greater the extreme, the larger the anticipated move. In other words, we expect a larger move on a value of +10 than we expect on a value of +3.
I hope that helps.
- Spydertrader
today's chart
Another one: Nikkei (Feel free to ignore)
You are short off the close of the FTT bar shown (doji). All looks good until
the last bar shown. This bar is complete and is in Dry Up volume.
What do you need to see in the opening of the next bar to hold, exit or reverse?
What do you suspect actually happens?
I am hoping to learn from your insights.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: STR - SQU
Quote from dougcs:
Another question, I've noticed sometimes the S/S hits an extreme but only very briefly while at other times it dwells for extended (at least it seems that way on a 1 min chart) time. Does dwell time have any meaning. My observations, limited as they are, show there is some importance if it dwells >2 or <-2 for extended time.
__________________
Futures Journal
What can I say and where do I begin. Although it has been done so many times
it bears repeating. Let me give the obligatory thanks to not only Spyder who has
really engaged in thoroughly selfless and gracious act, but to all those who
have supplemented his efforts with their own insights.
Having said that,I have to say after reading through a good deal of the thread
and its ancillary material; my eyes have nearly rolled up in my head. At times
it is as though I have some very tenuous grasp of the method only to read the
very next thread and chart and realize how desperately arbitrary all the lines
appear. Truly overwhelming. Yet it also appears that others have mastered the
method given the same info presented to me. Which at the present time remains a
mystery.
Here at last is the query: Is there a succinct and straightforward description
of this method, a primer of sorts (the Jack Murphy Channels for Building Wealth
although descriptive it is not straightforward enough for my manifestly weak
mind) that starts at the open (presumably the tape) and walks through EOD? I may
simply have not gotten to it reading through the Journal. If anyone is aware of
the existence of such an animal I would be greatly appreciative.
Re: Another one: Nikkei (Feel free to ignore)
Quote from PointOne:
You are short off the close of the FTT bar shown (doji). All looks good until the last bar shown. This bar is complete and is in Dry Up volume. What do you need to see in the opening of the next bar to hold, exit or reverse? What do you suspect actually happens?I am hoping to learn from your insights.
__________________
Re: Futures Journal
Quote from guavaman:
Is there a succinct and straightforward description of this method, a primer of sorts that starts at the open (presumably the tape) and walks through EOD?
__________________
Re: Re: Another one: Nikkei (Feel free to ignore)
Quote from Spydertrader:
What do you need to see for continuation (in this case short) and what do you need to see for change (in the case reverse and get long)?
Assuming you used the FTT (Blue Doji Price Bar) as your signal enter into a short position, we also know that you have chosen to hold through the apparent retrace of your red down channel (nothing wrong with this, just setting the stage so to speak).
We note that Price exits the the red down channel on decreasing black volume. However, we know Price only leaves a down channel on increasing black volume. In other words, our Gaussians do not match our channel. The market has informed us that we do not have a correct channel. In such a case we need to fan out our channel in an effort to create a correct channel.
Once you have a correct Price channel in place, PRV Volume provides an answer for where we go next. If we see increasing black Volume, we know to reverse and enter long. If we see increasing red Volume on a PRV basis, we know to hold and remain short.
Based on the fact that we currently see decreasing black volume (indicative of a non-dominant retrace of a down channel), holding short remains the best course of action at this time. I anticipate continuation of the short channel once the market reveals the correct down channel.
Let me know how it went.
- Spydertrader
Re: Futures Journal
Quote from guavaman:
What can I say and where do I begin. Although it has been done so many times it bears repeating. Let me give the obligatory thanks to not only Spyder who has really engaged in thoroughly selfless and gracious act, but to all those who have supplemented his efforts with their own insights.
Having said that,I have to say after reading through a good deal of the thread and its ancillary material; my eyes have nearly rolled up in my head. At times it is as though I have some very tenuous grasp of the method only to read the very next thread and chart and realize how desperately arbitrary all the lines appear. Truly overwhelming. Yet it also appears that others have mastered the method given the same info presented to me. Which at the present time remains a mystery.
Here at last is the query: Is there a succinct and straightforward description of this method, a primer of sorts (the Jack Murphy Channels for Building Wealth although descriptive it is not straightforward enough for my manifestly weak mind) that starts at the open (presumably the tape) and walks through EOD? I may simply have not gotten to it reading through the Journal. If anyone is aware of the existence of such an animal I would be greatly appreciative.
Re: Re: Re: STR - SQU
Quote from Spydertrader:
No. I do not 'take heat' in the sense most people use the term. When I say I 'take a loss' I mean to say that price has moved a certain distance before I realise I misread the market. Sometimes, I exit with a small profit. Other times, I reverse with a break even (wash) trade. Occasionally, I reverse and take a loss because I wasn't paying close enough attention, or the market moved too fast, or I was just plain too stupid
I don't make error's based on P & L. When I make an error, I have failed to read the market correctly for whatever reason. In such a case, I immediately recognize my error and immediately take action to fix the incorrect action I previously made. The distance price has moved before I take corrective action results from a factor of time. The faster I recognize my error, the more likely I end up with a small profit or wash trade. The longer it takes for me to recognize my error, the greater the opportunity for me to experience a loss. Those that have seen me trade live often note how quickly I reverse position once I recognize me error. I do not play the game of thinking, hoping or believing "it will come back." I take immediate action.
I hope the above post provides the clarification you were looking for.
- Spydertrader
Re: Futures Journal
Quote from guavaman:
What can I say and where do I begin. Although it has been done so many times it bears repeating. Let me give the obligatory thanks to not only Spyder who has really engaged in thoroughly selfless and gracious act, but to all those who have supplemented his efforts with their own insights.
Having said that,I have to say after reading through a good deal of the thread and its ancillary material; my eyes have nearly rolled up in my head. At times it is as though I have some very tenuous grasp of the method only to read the very next thread and chart and realize how desperately arbitrary all the lines appear. Truly overwhelming. Yet it also appears that others have mastered the method given the same info presented to me. Which at the present time remains a mystery.
Here at last is the query: Is there a succinct and straightforward description of this method, a primer of sorts (the Jack Murphy Channels for Building Wealth although descriptive it is not straightforward enough for my manifestly weak mind) that starts at the open (presumably the tape) and walks through EOD? I may simply have not gotten to it reading through the Journal. If anyone is aware of the existence of such an animal I would be greatly appreciative.
Re: Re: Re: Another one: Nikkei (Feel free to ignore)
Quote from PointOne:
[If anyone is in any doubt about the PV relationship or remains sceptical, I humbly suggest you look closely at Spydertrader's most recent 2 responses to me. Just awesome.
Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
Thanks to all for responding. The advice to take a bite of the elephant
instead of trying to swallow it whole is probably the best route. I have seen
the video and will watch again. Did Pr0crast develop a formal review? I will
search for it but if there is a link I would appreciate it.
Thanks again, this is really an amazing thread.
-guava out
Would not extremes in str/sq be more indicative of change rather than of continuation?
Quote from Bearbelly:
Would not extremes in str/sq be more indicative of change rather than of continuation?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Another one: Nikkei (Feel free to ignore)
Quote from Bearbelly:
These little exchanges are helping me more than anything else. This one is priceless.
Re: Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
Quote from guavaman:
Thanks to all for responding. The advice to take a bite of the elephant instead of trying to swallow it whole is probably the best route. I have seen the video and will watch again. Did Pr0crast develop a formal review? I will search for it but if there is a link I would appreciate it.
Thanks again, this is really an amazing thread.
-guava out
Question for Mr. Spyder
Spyder,
Could you please review the attachement when conventient and comment? I know
others I speak with have the same issue. It boils down to making the initial
call correctly, and then what appears to be cause to reverse turns out to be
false move.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Spyder,
Are you saying, that if you were LONG and saw a STR/SQU reading of -10 you would
"instantly" reverse to a SHORT position no matter what price was doing? If yes,
at what other levels would this action occur ........ -4, -5, etc. ?
Again if yes, wouldn't volatility affect these action levels?
Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from bundlemaker:
Spyder,
Could you please review the attachement when conventient and comment? I know others I speak with have the same issue. It boils down to making the initial call correctly, and then what appears to be cause to reverse turns out to be false move.
Re: Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from Tums:
bm:
do you have the corresponding ym charts?
so I don't have my annotations at the time in question.__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from bundlemaker:
Could you please review the attachement when conventient and comment? I know others I speak with have the same issue. It boils down to making the initial call correctly, and then what appears to be cause to reverse turns out to be false move.
__________________
Quote from Vista:
Are you saying, that if you were LONG and saw a STR/SQU reading of -10 you would "instantly" reverse to a SHORT position no matter what price was doing? If yes, at what other levels would this action occur ........ -4, -5, etc. ?
__________________
Chart for this morning.
Made a few mistakes.
1.
recognized the 1st FTT in the chart too late.
2.
the 10:35 bar caught me by surprise. I was just seeing a lateral where price
would normally simply continue to go up. It didn't and I didn't see it coming.
For the rest no problems.
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from Spydertrader:
6. Alternating Red, Black, Red, Black (or Black Red Black Red) Volume while both colors show decreasing represents an HVS. While the number of bars involved could range from 3 to 8 or more, Volume tells the tale.
- Spydertrader
[/B]
ES so far 27 Apr 07
Re: Re: Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from vjr:
I did recognize the HVS and knew it meant cont, but I was thinking it meant cont of the current up channel. I almost went long when prices came in on the 10:30 bar, but I didn't because I notice PRV was high. I do have that same carryover down channel, but was looking at the HVS in the wrong context (upchannel). The above is great info to know, just incase I get lost again.
I just wanted to say that your last few posts are gold. My hand hurts from taking notes.
My Es for today...
Re: Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from Spydertrader:
5. We do not yet have the next tool (DOM)
Re: Re: Re: Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from ivob:
I really don't see the higher bar before the HVS as an FTT (not even a taped FTT, just no FTT).
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from ramora:
Will you start to discuss the DOM next week? Is there a new tool for May?
__________________
Today's ES. Have a great weekend everyone!
This is my first post. I started reading this thread in February and have
finally finished the first 500 pages. I have reread the first 300 pages and the
January and February monthly review at least twice. There is a wealth of
information here. First I would like to thank Spydertrader for his time and
effort. INCREDIBLE. This is an excellent thread. I would also like to thank all
of the other participants who through their questions, discussions and posting
of charts have helped me take that first step in understanding SCT.
I have started annotating charts and monitoring price and volume on the 5 min ES
and more recently on the 2 min YM. My level of understanding is at a very
elementary level. I find myself repeatedly returning to my notes and the first
pages of this journal to insure that I have a basic understanding of the key
concepts.
I will try to post my chart from today. Any comments, criticisms or corrections
are welcome.
If anyone is using Esignal for their data feed could you please explain how I
would manually scale the price data on my chart. Thanks.
PCT
Today's ES
04-27-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Edit: I uploaded the incorrect chart the first time. Thanks to those who
brought it to my attention. I apologize for any confusion resulting from my
error.
__________________
Today's YM
04-27-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from Spydertrader:
1. Add your 20 SMA. Doing so shows why your Point Two turned into an FBO of the Red Down Channel. The 20 SMA often acts exactly like a trend line in wider Price Channels.
ES
Just in case the last one didn't take.
__________________
Kudos to Bundlemaker for his channeling for beginners video. I have been
reading I dont know how many pages of fluffy chats with nuggets buried in them
and finally found bundle's video linked above.
Just 45 minutes taught me as much as a couple of hundred pages and everyone
should be required to watch it 2x before starting channels or asking questions
LOL...
I have been following this journal since its inception in January. Perhaps
today was the first day that I was able to integrate most of the material
presented here into one cohesive framework. Here are the results of my sim
trades on IB.
I chose to trade YM because this is an instrument with which I'm most
comfortable. As Spyder has stated many times, this methodology is applicable to
any market at any time provided that it has sufficient liquidity. YM certainly
meets this criteria.
IB Paper trade results:
L 13124 13148 24
S 13149 13123 26
L 13126 13150 24
S 13148 13142 6
S 13162 13157 5
L 13155 13163 8
S 13163 13158 5
L 13156 13167 11
Total 109
Please see the screen capture of the IB's Execution page for more details.
Much like a few others on this journal, I plan to continue with sim trading for
sometime before I execute actual trades.
For the record, I have been reading JH's usenet posts since 1999. Words can't
describe what Spyder has been able to do with all of JH's teachings!
Best wishes and good trading to all.
Here's my chart.
Hi,
Can you post the link again please, I can't find it.
Cheers
Quote from optioncoach:
Kudos to Bundlemaker for his channeling for beginners video. I have been reading I dont know how many pages of fluffy chats with nuggets buried in them and finally found bundle's video linked above.
Just 45 minutes taught me as much as a couple of hundred pages and everyone should be required to watch it 2x before starting channels or asking questions LOL...
YM 2 Min.
Quote from Razor:
Hi,
Can you post the link again please, I can't find it.
Cheers
Spyder-
Just a heads up on your ES chart today. I see you were on server 2 out of mia.
If you try server 5 out of sc8, the volume during the first hour is greater.
I haven't noticed if guassians are affected, but could be a consideration in the
future.
-Mike
tool to find faster qchart server http://www.qcsoftwarehelp.com/Essential_Tools.htm
Thanks nkhoi
Quote from nkhoi:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&pagenumber=241
Hi,
Does anyone know how to set-up the vertical scale on esignal so its fixed, ie:
only ever shows 10 point range ? Are you guys still using 10 point fixed
vertical scale for 5 min ES ?
Cheers
Quote from nkhoi:
tool to find faster qchart server http://www.qcsoftwarehelp.com/Essential_Tools.htm
.
es chart 4-27
This is the first chart I have posted. Previous software was not user
friendly for drawing trendlines, channels and annotating. Just switched to
Ensign which has helped make things more efficient. I have yet to set things up
for gaussians and annotating but will do it this weekend.
I don't know the differences in stalls, hvs, ccc....maybe they will become
clearer later. For now I'm able to see the gaussian and channel correltations
and see what side of the market to be on at the forest level.
I am not clear on the exact definitions of an ftt, if in fact there is one. I'm
not sure if they are identified on the now bar or after the following bar is
formed. On Spyders es chart for today 4-27, at what point do you know the 9:50
bar is a red FTT and not part of the HVS? And I don't understand how a bar
following a channel expansion and successful traverse can be considered a
failure.
And the 12:40 bar grn FTT. Do we know this is an ftt during the bar?
The Str/Sqz is making more sense at times of change. I tend to ignore the
'minor' signals that go against the current channel and see value in the signals
that go with the channel. Is this correct? The bars that have both Str and Sqz
triggered within 15 seconds of each other baffle me still.
Obviously more real time experience is needed to understand the str/sqz better
however I am anxious to learn about the DOM and see how they go together.
guess I need to work on the attachment function.
My chart for 04/27...
Re: Re: Re: Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from Spydertrader:
The next tool on the Syllabus is the DOM. I do plan to begin to discuss this tool next week unless people feel more time is needed with the current tool set. Nothing says we can't delay the DOM discussion as we did with STR / SQU. I built plenty of stack into the Original Lesson Plans.
- Spydertrader
Re: es chart 4-27
Quote from ticktrade:
This is the first chart I have posted. Previous software was not user friendly for drawing trendlines, channels and annotating. Just switched to Ensign which has helped make things more efficient. I have yet to set things up for gaussians and annotating but will do it this weekend.
I don't know the differences in stalls, hvs, ccc....
maybe they will become clearer later. For now I'm able to see the gaussian and channel correltations and see what side of the market to be on at the forest level.
I am not clear on the exact definitions of an ftt, if in fact there is one. I'm not sure if they are identified on the now bar or after the following bar is formed.
On Spyders es chart for today 4-27, at what point do you know the 9:50 bar is a red FTT and not part of the HVS? And I don't understand how a bar following a channel expansion and successful traverse can be considered a failure.
And the 12:40 bar grn FTT. Do we know this is an ftt during the bar?
The Str/Sqz is making more sense at times of change. I tend to ignore the 'minor' signals that go against the current channel and see value in the signals that go with the channel. Is this correct? The bars that have both Str and Sqz triggered within 15 seconds of each other baffle me still.
Obviously more real time experience is needed to understand the str/sqz better however I am anxious to learn about the DOM and see how they go together.
I attempted to sct trade on simulator Friday but got discouraged right off the bat as I got chewed up in that HVS at the open. It appears to me that you might be better off to wait for the first move of the day and begin trading with the ftt that ends that move. Spyder can you give any insight on what you are looking for on your first entry of the day?
Quote from Bearbelly:
I attempted to sct trade on simulator Friday but got discouraged right off the bat as I got chewed up in that HVS at the open. It appears to me that you might be better off to wait for the first move of the day and begin trading with the ftt that ends that move. Spyder can you give any insight on what you are looking for on your first entry of the day?
__________________
Thanks for the detailed response Spyder. Your answers are always helpful.
HVS
Since a number of people appeared to have missed the HVS Continuation on
Friday, I wanted to take a moment, and hopefully, provide some points of
clarification.
As we know, an HVS results from lateral Price movement, or as Jack says, an
'Even Harmonics' situation. We also know (as beginning traders), lateral price
movement means continuation requiring the trader to take the following
action: Hold. Certainly everyone can understand the concept of "holding
through lateral Price movement." Why then, do we often see such confusion with
respect to the HVS Price formation? Perhaps, the answer resides from confusion
over which direction Price initially entered the lateral channel.
As discussed previously, we can distinguish an HVS from other Price formations
based on the Volume data. We see both decreasing black and decreasing red
volume within an HVS (See Yellow highlighted area of attached chart). Once
recognized, a beginning trader simply holds in the direction of the current
trend. Now, that sounds easy enough, but how (in real time) can a
beginning trader determine which direction (long or short) the current trend
represents? The answer resides in Price.
How Price enters the lateral channel determines how Price exits the lateral
channel (unless an overriding signal for change develops within the lateral
channel itself). In other words, If Price enters the lateral channel long, Price
exits the channel long. If Price enters the lateral channel Short, price exits
the lateral channel short. In both cases, the lateral channel represents
continuation: (Hold).
We see two such examples on the attached chart snippet (pinkish arrows). Example
One: At the open on Friday, we see Price gap down and immediately enter
into an HVS. On Bar Four, Price heads lower as it exits the lateral
forming an FTT on bar Five. Example Two: On Bar Eight, Price creates an FBO as
it bounces off the 20 SMA, reverses, and heads lower into an HVS. At the end of
the HVS (Bar 13), Price heads lower breaking out of the lateral channel.
Again, the lateral channels represent continuation of the Price Trend in both
examples.
Unless the market provides an overriding signal of change (FTT / FBO)
within (or at the end of) a lateral channel, the same dynamic operates at,
around and within all Lateral Price Channels.
As always, annotating correct Price Channels (which always match
Gaussian Volume Formations) place the trader in the correct mental framework
(mindset for lack of a better word) to 'see' the current trend. Note the Brown
Down Channel on the chart snippet. This channel represents a 'steeper' carryover
channel (and one I neglected to annotate on my original chart). By annotating
this 'steeper' Point Three Channel, we can easily see how Price enters the
Lateral from the short side as our FBO becomes a Point Three of the down trend.
Had we annotated correctly, even if we missed seeing the 10:05 Bar (Bar
Eight) as an FBO, everyone can most certainly 'see' it is a Point Three Down
Channel. Clearly, a long position, in such an environment, places the trader on
the incorrect side of the market.
In summary, Lateral Channels may represent left to right traverses of both Up
and Down channels. Determining which trend one needs to follow, and how one
arrives at the right side of the market, results from careful consideration of
Price. Even if one believes they 'see' the market correctly, a trader needs to
remain mindful of the possibility something remains amiss. However, if we
note the direction Price entered the Lateral Channel, we can anticipate the
correct exit.
I hope everyone finds the above information helpful. If anyone needs additional
clarification, please let me know.
- Spydertrader
__________________
I think there is a problem with my understanding of stretch and squeeze so I would like to post my thoughts and have someone point out the flaws for me. When we are at nuetral we are at fair value. Normally the futures lead the cash. When price moves up the futures lead a bit and cash follows along. When price moves fast, futures will start moving above fair value creating stretch as the cash lags. When price moves down and futures are moving down faster than the cash, futures move below fair value and we have a squeeze. Where Im having a problem is interpreting extreme stretch as bullish and extreme squeeze as bearish because I thought that beyond a certain point the programs would come in cause a temporary reversal in the futures to bring them and cash back in line. Comments please.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Where Im having a problem is interpreting extreme stretch as bullish and extreme squeeze as bearish because I thought that beyond a certain point the programs would come in cause a temporary reversal in the futures to bring them and cash back in line. Comments please.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Where Im having a problem is interpreting extreme stretch as bullish and extreme squeeze as bearish because I thought that beyond a certain point the programs would come in cause a temporary reversal in the futures to bring them and cash back in line. Comments please.
Much later in this Journal
(sometime in the fall), I'll begin to move the discussion down into the lower
levels of the rabbit hole.__________________
Re: Re: es chart 4-27
Quote from Tums:
Most of the answers are in the first 4 days of this journal.
I discovered many gems on my re-reads.
Re: Re: Re: es chart 4-27
Quote from ticktrade:
I saw a wall on both sides it was showing the boundaries of the HVS. When the wall appears on both sides do we have a sign to anticipate a HVS? Is my thinking correct?
__________________
more on HVS
The other thought I had was the relationship to volume and time of day. Being aware of this has helped me recognize things easier when doing daily playbacks with Ensign.
Re: Re: Re: Re: es chart 4-27
Quote from Spydertrader:
Hold onto this question until we begin to discuss the characteristics of the DOM, then feel free to repost it. For now, focus on the items in the syllabus which still provide you challenges.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: es chart 4-27
Quote from ticktrade:
Didn't mean to get ahead. The reviewing done this weekend have gone a long way to clearing things up that I was confused about. I just thought it might have been an ah-ha moment but will wait to find out. I don't trade at that resolution so waiting to address this makes sense. Have a ways to go before the forest level is in sports memory. Doing the playbacks on the weekends is helping for that level. Can only use the es or ym when doing this so the tools are limited but the p-v channels are there and without other tool distractions are becoming easier to see.
__________________
Re: STR / SQU Video
Quote from Spydertrader:
Today's STR / SQU Video for those with an interest.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: STR / SQU Video
Quote from vjr:
I was wondering if there was any audio to the above?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Question for Mr. Spyder
Quote from Spydertrader:
The next tool on the Syllabus is the DOM. I do plan to begin to discuss this tool next week unless people feel more time is needed with the current tool set. Nothing says we can't delay the DOM discussion as we did with STR / SQU. I built plenty of stack into the Original Lesson Plans.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Hi,
Can volidity expansion only occur on the left trendline ? If it happens on the
right trendline then a new trendline / channel should be drawn ?
A FBO can only happen after a FTT and can only occur on the right trendline just
like a FTT can only occur on the left trendline ? Or is an FBO whenever price
tests the right trendline but does breakout ?
If the price trades through the right trendline but then returns back inside the
channel is that a FBO ?
Thanks for trying to help me clarify the above.
Cheers
Here is my take on it.
A move above the left trendline is a volatility expansion in an uptrend channel
and a move below the right trendline in a downtrend channel is a volatility
expansion.
A move below the right trendline in an upward channel is breakout and a move
above the left trendline in a downward channel is a breakout.
Quote from optioncoach:
Here is my take on it.
A move above the left trendline is a volatility expansion in an uptrend channel and a move below the right trendline in a downtrend channel is a volatility expansion.
A move below the right trendline in an upward channel is breakout and a move above the left trendline in a downward channel is a breakout.
Yea I watched the video and I need clarification
Excellent video though !
Yes it was not confusion but a typo in reversing left and right. Thanks for
catching that.
Lets just look at an upward moving channel:
A move above the left-side is a volatility expansion and a move below the
right-side is a breakout.
Simply reverse it for a downward channel.
Quote from Tums:
you have the "Left" and "Right" channel confused on the Up/Down sequence.
a review of Bundlemaster's video might help.
Left & Right Trend Lines
Thanks guys
Channel Summary
This are the kind of posts that would have helped early on LOL...
Due to your great efforts, I hope someone puts these two or three charts in a
file and when the beginner questiosn pop up you can simply tell the person to
watch the video and look at these two or three pictures.
I would say the video and TUMS' pics are about 6 weeks of discussions summarized
beautifully.
Agreed ! Thanks Tums, excellent pic
Quote from optioncoach:
This are the kind of posts that would have helped early on LOL...
Due to your great efforts, I hope someone puts these two or three charts in a file and when the beginner questiosn pop up you can simply tell the person to watch the video and look at these two or three pictures.
I would say the video and TUMS' pics are about 6 weeks of discussions summarized beautifully.
Quote from optioncoach:
This are the kind of posts that would have helped early on LOL...
__________________
I never made any assertion that was intended to be negative lol, only that
the bulk of the information is spread out over 2 or 3 journals and many related
pieces of information is connected through multiple links. There are a few links
with great definitions but the detail behind many definitions or clarifications
are then in othe multiple linked posts.
The video and TUMS pics is a nice concise way to summarize the main info for
review or as a good introduction. You forget you have been doing this for a
couple of years and all the nuggets get spread out and sometime it is hard to
find em for quick reviews or for beginners that want better grouped
explanations.
Therefore, I recommend all review the video with Tums' pic for a great 40 minute
re-cap.
Hey Spyder,
Yes, agreed, just so much info when reading through that sometimes one misses
things. Big thanks to you for all your efforts
Quote from Spydertrader:
With all due respect, This Post was linked to from the first post of this Journal. Combined with This Attachment where both volatility expansion lines and BO's were labelled, I submit, you may have missed that which you assert didn't exist.
- Spydertrader
Check Up
We all have been at this four months now, and before moving forward, I wanted
to take stock of where people stood. Without placing anybody on the spot, I'd
appreciate it if we could once again temporarily digress to see how
everyone's reality meets with their expectations.
How has everyone felt lately with respect to trading and understanding the
market? You don't have to provide actual blotters, or execution reports, but I
would prefer you gave an honest opinion. If people continue to experience some
difficulties, I'd like to have those difficulties resolved before moving
forward.
Specifically ....
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue
to see improvement?
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate
continuation or change?
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
I realize this slight digression may once again take us somewhat off track with
respect to the syllabus. However, I feel it is extremely important that
everyone work through whatever difficulty they currently have before adding any
additional tools.
Channels, Gaussians, ES, YM and STR / SQU should provide all the requirements
needed for profitability. DOM, T&S and Tic Charts simply permit 'carving the
turns' much closer to the actual 'signal for change.' In other words, The Fine
Tools improve profits, they don't create profits where none
existed. If we need to review of the fundamentals before moving forward, it
simply makes better sense to do so now, rather than, later.
In past attempts at transference, the "wheels came off the cart" when fine
levels tools found their way into the discussion. Many people started to think
"If I only had one more tool, I could perform better." I cannot place enough
emphasis on the fact that such thinking is incorrect and detrimental to
one's overall success.
Before moving forward, I want to make absolutely sure everyone who wants
to move forward should move forward. In other words, I want to make sure
everyone has the fundamentals in place, and a strong, intact foundation, before
we attempt to head further down the rabbit hole.
With that said, I look forward to everyone's honest input and critique of the
process thus far.
Thanks in advance.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hello;
As you know, I don't use the complete rule set. So perhaps I am not qualified to
comment. Take it with a grain of salt.
Just using the rules for putting channels in place, and my own experience
trading index futures, I see a significant change in my productivity as follows
Used to make approximately 6 to 10 ES points/day, 3 days/week. Of the other 2
trading days, one typically breakeven or small loser and the second a small
loser. I define "small loser" as 2-4 ES points.
Putting channels in place I see the following benefits;
I see consolidation earlier and can decide whether to trade it profitably based
on the channels in place. Also I "see" a trending market (BO) earlier and obtain
better early trade entry. I define "better trade entry" as getting in early
enough that I increase my per trade profit by about 30%.
Frankly I don't expect to add any of the other rules to my trading process. For
me the question is "when is enough, enough?"
I do appreciate however, being able to finish my workday early and I do see a
marked improvement in my daily profits, after only a few months.
Good luck
Steve
Re: Check Up
[QUOTE]Quote from Spydertrader:
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
- Simulated and real trades continue to improve dramatically.
How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
- I would say the anxiousness has subsided as well. During periods of
uncertainty I sideline until I "see" the market.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
- Better every day!
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue
to see improvement?
- My greatest challenge is letting profits run the channel until I see
evidence of change. With previous trading methods I would sometimes let
profitable trades turn into losers - that created a fear of holding. I'm slowly
conquering that internal demon.
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate
continuation or change?
- Yes
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
- Keep doing what you're doing. Your replies/explanations to posts are the
most valuable tool for me.
John
Re: Check Up
Quote from Spydertrader:
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
...
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate continuation or change?
..
- Spydertrader
I went live about 3 weeks ago but my results were not consistent . Therefore
I have spent the last 1.5 weeks just watching and working on understanding the
theory and application of the method. This has helped me tremendously. I am
starting to think and act correctly in my mind and see trades unfolding right
before my eyes. I understand everything that you have taught us until now, and
think my main problem is that I lack market experience. This will come in due
time.
Thanks for all your help.
For those interested in NQ and this method I have been having some success
using this on NQ.
Today I made 9 points on the NQ and today's total range so far is about 9 points
so I cannot complain.
Went short pre-market before open based on where NQ was and carrry over from
Friday. Covered a little quickly unfortunately at 4.50 points but another friend
trading with me I had him covered at a BO of the down channel for the 6.75
points on the first move.
I did not reverse into the move higher but happily charted along with it and saw
the entry. Its ok I did not grab it but I was happy to see it and blam myself
for sitting on my hands too long.
When it dropped out of the upward channel on a breakout I went short again for
another 4.50 points and covered at point 2 retrace because, I was off the the
gym to enjoy the nice weather and the rest of my day.
So 9 points on NQ. Any market as long as there is liquidity and volume.
Re: Check Up
Quote from Spydertrader:
SNIP
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see improvement?
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate continuation or change?
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
- Spydertrader [/B]
Spyder-
Now that I am caught up with all the journals, and have been annotating the ES
for 2 months, let me say thank you for your generosity.
My trades over the last week specifically have improved dramatically, as I am
less anxious. Also, I managed to 'hold' when required as I could 'see' that I
was in continuation and not change. This helped pull out some real winners last
week and continued today with my first 'real' STR trade. I entered on the 10:10
bar today at 98.5 when I thought I had an FTT, quick glance at YM confirmed so I
peeked at the STR/SQZ and I saw a nice tall blk bar confirming long entry. Up
until now I never saw it quick enough or at the right time.
My difficulties are more with trade execution, I 'see' the trade but hesitate
and then it starts moving, therefore I just observe and annotate until the next
one appears. Another problem is not correcting my mistakes quicker and not
'washing'.
I believe I am using Channels and Gausssians correctly as I try and confirm my
channels match the gaussians I see. I hope my posted charts proved beneficial to
the journal. The STR/SQZ came alive for me today.
I would like to move forward with the next tool, but understand if I am not
ready.
-Mike
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
Not too good for me. I'm still trading the beginner method, entering on the
Point 3 and exiting on the LTL BO. Most of the problems come from not getting in
right at the top of the LTL (PT3), and getting small losses on the BO if it is
soon after the entry.
I also incur larger losses if I try to get in too early, where the trend line
needs to be fanned out. Waiting for me usually turns in to a reversal rather
than a retrace.
How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
All of the above. I still can't seem to make the right call. If I hold and wait
for the price to establish itself along the trend lines I often watch profits
slip away as the price retraces and then reverses. If I exit early, I see the
price continue right along the trend line. Sometimes I think I just have been
born under an unlucky star, but I realize I'm probably just guessing because I
still am not recognizing the signs correctly.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
I can go back and draw the gaussians and channels perfectly after everything is
done, and my real-time drawings look very similar to everyone else's, however
trading still seems to always produce negative results.
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see
improvement?
I continue to see difficulty in execution of trades. I see improvements in
drawing the channels and Gaussian.
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussian and STR / SQU to correctly
anticipate continuation or change?
Getting better at the channels and gaussians but the STR/SQU has me stumped. I'm
thinking I may be setup wrong because it seems to be indicating in reverse, ie:
when I see RED price is going up? See screen shot for how I am setup. This was
taken today at about 2:18.
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
I'm thinking the STR / SQU might help with some of my problems detailed above.
Unfortunately I have not been able to 'SEE' it yet. I'd appreciate some feedback
on if I'm just 'SO FAR' off track that STR / SQU will be of no help, or if I'm
on the right track or not.
That's kind of personal plea for help, but other than that what you are already
doing for the group is fantastic. Especially so of the recent posts where you
detailed example charts.
Thanks,
Bryan
--- How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last
week?
Mostly good, still recognizing HVS and CCC too late.
--- How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
Calm for the most part, confused when getting seemingly conflicting change
signals.
--- Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
Yes, the majority of the time.
--- Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see
improvement?
Gaussians and their relation to the channels is way better. Still some trouble
with "change" and resolution level, that should come with time.
--- Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly
anticipate continuation or change?
Yes on Channels and Gaussians. Use STR/SQZ "when" it signals, mostly for
confirmation.
and finally ....
--- How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
Clarification when trading all the FTT's: we need more than one indicator/signal
for change. If we get more than one signal for change on the YM, do we wait for
the ES to have a change signal as well?
The thought process and change signals as we go through these periods today
would be helpful: 10:40 - 11:10 and 13:30 - 14:10
The afternoon section was much easier to read in hindsight, but during that time
it wasn't as clear. Usually problems in these areas caused by narrowing ranges
or longer stalls, and trying to "read the direction or find change" until the
late realization it's a stall, pennant or CCC formation.
Those are actually minor areas. Overall things are going good.
ES 30 April 07
marked improvement
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
I am monitoring the market and feel good that I am reading it much better than
say 4 months ago.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
I am getting better at spotting the FTTs and point 3s.
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see
improvement?
I still have difficulty matching Gaussians with Channels but more screen time
with like minded people will definitely see marked improvement in the coming
months.
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate
continuation or change?
Drawing the Channels correctly real time and marking the Gaussians help to
anticipate continuation/change.
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
For me simply being able to draw the channels (“just doing it”) has been a
turning point. Thank you for the journal and being here to answer everyone’s
questions.
Thank you to Ezzy, all the “Tucsons” in particular to Pr0.
Today's ES
Today's ES
04-30-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
04-30-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
I am trading cash with moderate success. I am entering on point 3 and exiting on what I percieve to be an ftt which is about 50/50. I am trading 5min Es with PRV. The guassians on YM have helped me a bit. Str/sq has done nothing for me so far.
How are things ?
[b]--- How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the
last week?
Finding an ebb and flow of getting it and then losing the plot.
Each time I lose the plot I have decided to go back to the beggining, and
trading only from p3 is working well.
Spotting HVS only in hindsight.
Main issues are intra-bar. I'm fine if price continues without much of a pause
but reading the point of change is failing me. Is it change or a slight pause
/slight retrace. ?
How much of a move constitutes change baring in mind spread/commission a tick or
two late etc..?
--- How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
Calm wrt to P3, as I'm using a RTL as a stop.
Although as with today's late sell off I would prefer to bank profits before
price retraces to RTL and at times I am not clear if another P3 is forming or we
get BO.
--- Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
Mostly, although finding change without clear FTT difficult. Much of today
(before sell off) is good example or what could seem like change (to me) but
with no follow through on next bar.
--- Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see
improvement?
Continue to see improvement on Foret level (P3) and gaussian on tree level.
Difficulties as above wrt intra bar change.
--- Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly
anticipate continuation or change?
Probably not as much I would like or is required.
I am ok with Forest level although not keen on just holding for retrace all the
way back to RTL.
Have not been able to use St/Sq with Esignal.
and finally ....
--- How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
Although FTT are part of Forest level ie P3 to FTT even if only using FTT to
close, I have tried to open on an FTT but again the intra bar reading is not
good. I might see increased PVR on a black bar having bought off an FTT for
example, thus thinking all is well for the up move, only for bar to close red. I
understand the amount of vol is relative but sometimes price continues against
me sometimes not. I don't really know how quickly I ought to react on the
downside and also too often I find I was better to have taken a small profit as
I'm unable to see if the ticks against me are "change" or "noise"
Biggest lesson, when things get confussing I just start at the beggining again
with the coarse forest level and wait patiently for a P3.
A huge thankyou Spyder for your continued efforts here.
FilterTip
Re: Check Up
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
Not bad at all compared to before. I am waiting to be profitable every day for a
week or three in a row before trading live and I know this will not take a long
time anymore.
How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
Relaxed. The first few minutes of course very focussed on the now and if
everything is going as it is supposed to go. I start making mistakes when I lose
2 times or so in a row. Even if it is a washed trade and I make 1 tick. What
follows is a high risk period for me. I am really starting to think in terms of
continuation and change so I have no problem to let profits run when there's no
change signal.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
Yes. most certainly.
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see
improvement?
Difficulty:
1. The opening gives opportunities but is also risky. I don't want to miss too
much of it. I find it difficult to trade, also because of the high pace of the
market during the opening. I guess the procedure is: Determine the dominant and
trade on pt3.
2. I make mistakes when the afternoon is approaching and volume gets lower. It
is not very difficult then to give away all of your profits. So I should pay
more attention to current pace of the market. If # of contracts is getting low
or on first sign of CCC: get out.
3. I sometimes trade emotional, impulsive and impatient after a few errors.
After winning I feel very relaxed like I don't have to trade anymore.
When losing I want to make up for it asap. This is the wrong mindset because I
always have to trade but only when the opportunities are there.
Improvements:
1. Identifying an FTT at the right moment. Getting quite good at this and
getting good at skipping the FTT's that look like FTT's but in the end of the
bar are not FTT's. Becoming more patient.
2. Determining what's going on after the FTT. I know usually before RTL break if
price will continue the original direction or not. I can see what's missing and
what should be expected and when, also after the RTL is broken.
3. Timing of placing the trade (pt 3's)
4. Letting profits run. We are taught to sideline when we don't know what's
going on but I find it equally important to have to be in the market when
we do know what's going on. Of course it still happens when I think I
know what's going on and in fact I don't. Especially in lower volume periods.
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly
anticipate continuation or change?
Yes but I do find str/sq tricky. You have to know exactly the moments when to
look at it. Your comments about reversing when going intra-bar and getting
several signals within the same bar I have just started to digest recently
although it makes perfect sense.
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
Mm. Hard to answer because I am very grateful for everything you do. My opinion
is that anyone who is willing to do the work and is reading very well what is
written here will get there. But ideally I would like to see a recorded screen
capture of your complete screen and hearing you giving comments on the market
and placing trades. This would anwer some questions like am I looking for the
right thing, am I too fast, etc.
regards,
Ivo
Spyder,
I'm glad you're asking where we are in our journey. This is my pit stop report:
I've been annotating the ES and YM real-time for 30 trading days now. As I was
going through my notebook of charts, I can really see a significant improvement,
especially in the area of the gaussians. Now I let the gaussians be my guide
when drawing channels.
For the last 15 or so trading days, I've been using a sim account and been
having reasonably good results. I'm trading essentially FTT to FTT. The past two
weeks have been pretty good with very few losing days (except for today!).
Generally, I seem to capture from 3 to 10 points each day. I do not hold my
trades for that long (mistake). I generally take a 1 to 2 points off each trade
and then get out. My inability to see the signals for change sooner keeps me
from staying in and reversing when I should.
When I'm trading I generally feel lively and excited and as if I have things
under control. Every day I feel that I have a better handle on the market as it
unfolds and I think I'm improving at seeing the turning points coming up.
I have been monitoring Str/Squ on the tick level. Sometimes when I strong
str/squ readings they seem to help and at times they don't seem to have any
effect at all. The jury is still out in my mind on how much str/squ helps. I
continue to monitor it however.
I would like to be able to recognize the turning points a little sooner and I
suspect thats what DOM, T&S and tick charts will do for us.
I believe I am ready for some additional tools, so pile em on! As a famous race
car driver once said, "If everything seems under control, you're not going fast
enough."
ps. I know lot's of people thank you, but I don't think it can be said enough.
If it weren't for your tenacity in keeping this thread going, most of us
wouldn't have gotten this far. Thanks for all you do.
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
.....Total -9.75 pts. 3 wins, 13 losses. Most days negative.
How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
.....Calm but very frustrated at the results.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
.....Usually, although I frequently misinterpret swings within a traverse as a
new pt 3. I appreciate that this is a “resolution” issue but I often find it
tricky trying to distinguish between a wide traverse and a narrow channel.
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see
improvement?
....My continued difficulty is the misidentification of a new pt 3 and missing
the real ones! Having identified a pt3 correctly, I frequently run straight into
an FTT. I can often recognize the FTT but I am trying to focus my trades at the
forest level and consequently my exit at the RTL BO will result in a small loss.
As yet, I am also unable to spot intrabar “change” signals in a timely manner.
I can see improvement in my ability to recognize FTTs, Gaussians, even the
occasional flaw, and I am getting better at matching my channels to Gaussians.
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate
continuation or change?
......Channels and Gaussians, yes. I have just started to monitor str/squ over
the last week (including making a video of the screen every day) and I am
beginning to see the correlation. I am sometimes unsure as to whether I need to
update the offset but I am sure that will come with practice.
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
.....I am unclear why you sometimes use a recent pt 3 as a new pt 1 instead of
recycling the earlier pt 1. I presume it has to do with Gaussian alignment but
after careful study of your posted charts, I am often unable to see the
correlation.
The timely identification of a new pt 3 often presents the same dilemma as when
trying to identify an FTT. The question of “is it or isn’t it?” raises what I
feel is often subjective analysis. Questions such as “Am I still in a wide
retrace?”, “Is this the end of the retrace?”, “Should I be widening (fanning)
the channel or starting a new one?” etc, frequently occur. I know that the
answers lie in the interpretation of the Gaussians but we all know that they are
rarely “text book”. I have started to pay particular attention to how price
leaves a channel and if the required volume increase does not appear, I widen
the channel.
A question mark remains regarding entry at a new pt 3. Your advice is to enter
“when you feel that you have a new pt 3”. My response is, “At what point should
I feel that I have a new pt 3?” I identify the FTT, the reducing volume as price
retraces to the RTL, the RTL BO and the b2b/r2r volume increase, and the
decreasing volume as price retraces towards a potential pt3. I guess it is
knowing when this retrace has ended. Price will often have moved significantly
away from the pt 3 before evidence of an increase in prv appears and I am left
thinking “d*mn, missed another one”. So, am I correct in assuming that one
should enter before seeing increasing prv? I know that I should not use the
break of the pt 3 bar as my entry cue but this often occurs before the prv kicks
in.
Lastly, I understand that the afternoon usually kicks in with a volume bo from a
lateral channel. However, I see frequent occurrences of this event just being a
“stop run” and price then falls back into the lateral channel. For this reason I
am reluctant to use bracket entries. Could you clarify the procedure for getting
back into the market after lunch.
And finally, I would like to thank you for your continued selfless dedication
and patience
Quote from dkm:
I guess it is knowing when this retrace has ended. Price will often have moved significantly away from the pt 3 before evidence of an increase in prv appears and I am left thinking “d*mn, missed another one”.
ES 4-30-07
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
I've been a break even trader for a month now. I trade part time around a full
time day job. Also in 2004 I traded 6 months unsuccessfully using a service
provided by an experience emini trader. My charts look great.
My execution is OK. I spot FTT's well and make several decent trades but
typically I mess up around the HVS and CCC's. I recognize them but
I make several entries/exits in or around the CCC's. My thinking during CCC is
screwed up ( I know I should hold
if my trade is in the same direction as the trend ). So far I am a break even
trader. I must eliminate my CCC trades to improve. Also I spot gaussians but
still frequently mess up forest and tree type guassians. Still don't
trust the str/squ tool.
How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
Always alittle nervous and apprehensive. Always questioning my analysis.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
Sometimes to rarely. This question probably gets at the cause of my feelings
while trading.
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see
improvement?
My charts are excellent. I ussually get chopped up in and around CCC and
abnormal "spikey" type price movement
where the price may BO and then resume its intra channel price movement.
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate
continuation or change?
STR / SQU - Not sold on this tool yet.
Gaussians - I consistently confuse tree and forest guassians in my trading. This
is probably my biggest
problem.
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
You are already a big help by answering our questions. I find your forest/tree
charts very beneficial.
Maybe a real time trading day video would help. Keep on emphasizing forest and
tree chart formations.
This time I kept my day job and other streams of income while learning how to
trade. This has really helped me to
relax. In hindsight, when I am working and reviewing the charts in the evening,
I always seem to think I would of
made money if I was trading. But in reality I am a scratch trader when I trade
several days a week. This is the
difference between sim trading and real time trading.
Re: Check Up
Not consistently profitable yet.
I feel somewhere in between anxioius and nervous.
I can usually see the market unfold unless volume is low. I'm starting to think
I'd be better off not trading during lunch duldrums or when volume is low. Not
sure what I'll do in the summer if it gets quiet, which it often, but not always
does.
I see the channels and gaussians much better now. Still get chewed up in the HVS
areas as I don't stay in the forest level and try to use tools I haven't been
taught.
Today, 2 times I traded 1 pt bounces off lows in the middle of the downleg using
what I thought were ftt's at dom walls with str. signals. I know I'm not
supposed to be doing this yet but wanted to try. These setups seemed clear to me
but usually when I try these I get chewed up and give back profits made earlier.
I'd have been better off staying in the forest level in the long run as my
renteries weren't always successful. I was helping employees and missed the
first leg down and had to find a entry point.
I don't stay in the trades long enough. Still fighting old psychology. Today was
tough, I had many entries go my way 4 ticks and shake me out with a tick profit
or miss the sign to reverse and bail too late.
The str/sqz is starting to make sense when used at the proper times.
Spyder, taking on this task is quite admirable and I hate to ask for anything
more. But since you asked to have
a time stamped recording of your thought process while trading would be
priceless. I found the sct q/a thread where Jack broke down a couple days in
sequences very informative after putting in enough work to understand what he
was saying this time around. Something like that would help me a great deal.
This kind of feels like an AA confession.
Time for the Serenity Prayer
Quote from ticktrade:
This kind of feels like an AA confession.
made a couple of mechanical mistakes... press the wrong button and threw me off the whole day.
Re: Check Up
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
> April was flawless... until last week. I kept on pressing the wrong buttons.
(e.g. press "Close All" to enter a stop.)
How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
> Calm. Very calm even during volatile periods.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
> yes. I can pick out pt3 very well. Drawing the tapes helped me to refine the
entry. The volume/gaussian allows me to anticipate the next few bars.
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue
to see improvement?
> I tend to forget what to do at CCC or HVS. LOL. Call that alzheimers, but
don't laugh; not that I don't know what should be done, but it seems the CCC and
HVS can cast a spell on me. I would get so hypnotized by every minute tick that
I forgotten to trade.
> I bought a new "HOLD" button. It is working better than the previous one. I
think I can use an even heavier duty model.
> being a conservative trader, I do not trade as much as nk, bb or wg. But I
think I am ready to step up my entries next month.
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate
continuation or change?
> channels ok. Gaussian reading is improving. Str/Squ -- I can see the signals
coming through. It is definitely helping.
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
> you can drop by again.
Housekeeping Check-up
I want to thank everyone who spent time answering my Housekeeping
Questionnaire by posting their viewpoints to the Journal, as well as those, who
sent me their opinions via PM or email. I appreciate your efforts and
consideration. If you have not yet had an opportunity to respond, please feel
free to do so. The process not only helps me to 'see' where we need to go next,
but also, it helps each individual 'see' where they need to focus in order to
make the next step.
I realize many reading along want to move forward and begin to study the DOM and
learn how it provides signals for change. Some have already moved into this
arena. Before I posted my questions today, the vast majority of individuals who
sent PM's, IM's, emails or posted their thoughts about moving forward, felt
ready and eager to forge ahead. However, after reviewing the posts from this
afternoon and this evening, I see many opportunities for improvement. In other
words, while each individual may feel ready, it doesn't necessarily
follow that they are ready to move onto the next step.
In addition, It is at this very point (during past attempts at transference of
these methods) where the "One More Tool" Phenomenon has manifested itself. I
have seen the same sequences develop within this thread as well. Already, I
sense many believe, 'If I only had (Insert Tool Name Here), I could
improve and become profitable."
Nothing could be further from the truth.
When Jack traded these methods (on hand drawn charts, mind you), he
only had the S&P Futures, The DOW Futures, Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU
as his tool set. He did not have 20 SMA, MACD, Stochastics (of any
flavor), DOM, T&S, or Tic Charts. As a result, it only stands to reason, that we
should be able to do the same.
Therefore, after careful consideration, and after thorough review of many posts
and charts shared across the last month, I feel delaying the introduction of the
DOM until next month, while at the same time, spending the month of May focusing
on the fundamentals required to trade these methods profitably provides the best
course of action needed to create a strong foundation for success. I understand
some may feel disappointed that we (once again) have delayed moving forward, but
if people experience difficulty now, it certainly doesn't become easier as we
add the fine level tools. Much better to fix things now, rather than, wait until
later.
To that end, I have a request for each of you.
While reviewing many of the responses, I noticed some people had experience in
one area, but lacked proficiency in another. Each respondent had different areas
of expertise and different areas where they experienced challenges.
Those of you who feel you can easily 'see' things (using one tool or another or
all the tools) as they unfold, please take a moment to attempt to articulate why
you 'see' the market as you do. If you still have difficulty in one area or
another, leave that part out for now. Try to express as clearly as possible how
you Draw Channels, Annotate Gaussians, Use PRV, Use YM, Use Str / SQU to assist
you to locate the FTT or Point Three. Please discuss areas where you feel you
have a proficiency in an effort to help those who have difficulty. If everyone
contributes in this fashion, each post provides the assistance needed for
another trader. Those of you who feel you cannot 'see' things clearly, please
attempt to articulate (as clearly as possible) how you monitor and make
decisions throughout the trading day - include how you decide to finally 'take
action' on a trade (mentally, for real or on a sim). In this fashion, others who
do have an expertise in one area can 'see' how your monitoring and decision
making differs from their own. As a result, we as a group can provide assistance
to each other in a much more rapid and helpful manner.
Use charts where possible.
Also, if anyone sees something during the trading day they find confusing,
please post the time and situation you found challenging as soon as possible. In
this fashion, I can focus in on an explanation - similar to Bundlemaker's Chart
and Question with respect to Friday Morning's HVS.
Lastly, I plan to review any response made to the 'Checkup Questionnaire' and
seek to provide some additional clarity with respect to the areas of challenge
mentioned in the individual posts. In addition, I plan to take each area
identified as needing improvement and provide examples of correct vs. incorrect
use of the tool or annotation, as well as, provide explanation as to how one
should use the information. In other words, I plan to reinforce the importance
of trading in the NOW, rather than, 'seeing' things after they happen.
I appreciate the patience afforded me by those who feel the time has come for
them to move forward with their studies, rather than, undergo a review. It is
not my place to point out who should, and who should not, begin to study the
DOM. I leave that choice up to the individual trader. However, I strongly
believe this delay provides everyone a benefit. Those that help to assist
others will definitely see the benefits of the 'See One, Do One, Teach One'
Paradigm - as they reinforce that which they already have internalized. Those
that need assistance in one area provide benefit to another, while receiving
assistance from someone else. Following such a process makes everyone a winner
in the end.
Once again, Thank you all for your patience.
Attached, please see the updated Syllabus.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Check Up
Most of the time I watch the market for the first 2 hours then off to work,
so please read my answers within that context. Also, I go for weeks without
watching due to my erratic schedule. I am on the slow track here
Quote from Spydertrader: in bold black
gooch87 response in red
How has everyone felt lately with respect to trading and understanding the market?
Sometimes I understand the market. I would like to understand it at all times.
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
I have been winning, breaking even, and losing. I can't consistently be on the right side of the market.
How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
When I nail the long at a point 3 up channel I feel ecstatic and I think I am getting it. When I nail what I think is a point 3, and its really a flaw , I feel anxious.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
Not all of the time, I get lost too frequently and that leads to anxiety.
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see improvement?
I thought I had a handle on the forest level and seeing the point 3 appear, but was not trading it. When I started to sim trade it, I found I was on the wrong side approximately 50% of the time. I lack the discipline to hold after I have a point of profit eventhough price still works within the forest channel. I am stuck in a rut on this and can't seem to extricate myself.
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate continuation or change?
I can draw the channels and sometimes the gaussians throw me off. I don't use STR/SQU yet. I do have it up, but I don't use it to make decisions yet. I also lack consistency to enter on the right side of the market. I would like to identify point 3s correctly everytime. Overall, I feel like I am on a roller coaster, doing really well, then doing really crappy. I have a hard time determining continuation and change.
Re: Housekeeping Check-up
Quote from Spydertrader:
... while each individual may feel ready, it doesn't necessarily follow that they are ready to move onto the next step.
...
- Spydertrader
(Note to Ezzy - hope ya don't mind my copy/paste of your layout. Thnx ...
--- How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
Nothing earth-shaking, mind you, but modest, and more importantly to me,
consistent sim results keep me coming back tomorrow!
--- How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
I could probably write a small book on this one, but let's just call things
anxious at this point.
--- Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
I definitely feel that I have acquired a better sense for price action/direction
since beginning these studies.
--- Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see
improvement?
My biggest difficulty lies in the area of trade execution, which I believe is an
offshoot of continued uncertainties about proper Gaussian interpretation. That,
and a feeling of not knowing how much wiggle room for entries should be
allotted. I've seen marked improvement in my ability to correctly draw channels,
and noting how price behaves within.
--- Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly
anticipate continuation or change?
Sometimes yes, sometimes no to the first two, and haven't even considered Str/Sq
yet, as I am a complete klutz at software tweaking. Sounds like plenty of time
in May to address this situation.
and finally ....
--- How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
Boy, Spyder, you've left the door wide open here! (kidding).
I have wondered in the past if it would be too much to request seeing two levels
of Gaussian annotations on your daily ES chart. Knowing how to assess the
forest/gaussians and tree/gaussians can still be somewhat confusing here.
And as already hinted at, any means that you could come up with to allow us to
"look over your shoulder" during a trading day would be extremely beneficial.
However, we do also realize this is your full-time vocation, and that nobody
cares to be bird-dogged while performing their daily tasks.
Just a couple quick thoughts concerning your decision for another month of
review. Although I was beginning to salivate at the prospect of learning some
tricks w/ the DOM and T&S, I believe we will all be grateful one day for your
keen assessment of the group as a whole. We all have our strengths and
weaknesses at this point, and none of us will be hindered by laying a couple
more rows of block. Add to that your request for one person helping the next,
and I don't see where we can go wrong. Everyone views the mkt through a unique
pair of eyes, and once we all pitch in with our personal takes, the concerted
efforts should provide even more ah-ha moments for all concerned.
Thanks again Spyder ... all the best ...
My chart for 04/30....
Re: Housekeeping Check-up
Quote from Spydertrader:
Therefore, after careful consideration, and after thorough review of many posts and charts shared across the last month, I feel delaying the introduction of the DOM until next month, while at the same time, spending the month of May focusing on the fundamentals required to trade these methods profitably provides the best course of action needed to create a strong foundation for success.
[/B]
Hi,
I have gone through the first pages again and feeling pretty good about drawing
the channels, FTT's, FBO's, BO's etc
Can someone point me to their fav post on explaining how volume relates to all
this. I am still lost on how to apply volume. Is there a video like bundle's on
channels for volume ?
I think one needs a good understanding on volume to catch the turning points,
hold points and exit points......also it looks like volume is key for CCC, HVS,
stalls, etc
Cheers
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&pagenumber=102
Spyder,
While I was kinda of hoping we would be moving on to some new tools, I can't
argue with your logic. You can never go wrong laying a solid foundation of the
fundamentals. I have been posting my charts, but I will also try to post some
comments/questions with them as well to help foster discussion and transference.
Thanks.
Spyder:
I appreciate the choice to focus on fundamentals as one can never spend TOO much
time on the foundation. I am always reading different option trading books and I
ALWAYS glance or read through the first chapters on option basics even though I
should know them backwards and forwards by now. I do it cause I am always
curious to see if the author has a different perspective or approach to showing
the basics and also to reinforce that I know what I know. I never think of it as
a waste of time.
Same would apply here, the spending of another month of hammering the basics is
important. Can anyone here truly say they have MASTERED the basics of channel
and volume. Honestly if you have, you would not need any other tools in my
humble opinion.
My approach is that I really only need channels and volume to trade and have not
really used STR/SQU. I am sure more tools can add finer resolution but it can
also muddy waters that channels and volume often make quite clear. So I would
think many should temper their DESIRE for more tools and more gadgets as they
are simply meant to add some detail to the basics. I am CONVINCED that one can
trade solely with channels and volume with an additional understanding of flaws
and such which are outside of normal expectations.
I am only using channels and volume and already seeing great improvement in
entries and exits. My final profit total has increased but not significantly due
to my own flaws of getting out too soon on moves or my natural schedule of not
being able to follow the market all hours of the trading day.
I too will start posting more charts and I honestly think that if Spyder stopped
at the end of MAY with one more month for flaws that it would be more than
enough for everyone to trade. I think adding DOM, tick charts, STR/SQU, etc. for
many will lead to deer in headlights.
So before the desire for more tools hoping each tool will fix the problems you
are having with the basics, know that mastering the basics alone seems to be
more than enough to trade off of.
Thanks to Spyder and others who provide nice detail to understand. From my own
experience and from other posts, I think VOLUME is the most misunderstood
building block in this approach. Sure people fret over FBOs and FTTs, but it all
winds its way back to volume.
So my suggestion is that a major part of the review focus on reading volume.
A bit late, but here are my responses.
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
- I've discovered I have a tremendous problem with QCHarts significantly lagging
the market. I'm currently looking into some other software solution. Otherwise,
I can trade pretty well in fast or extreme paced markets, but have much more
trouble with anything slower (plus I get bored).
How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
-Ecstatic at times when I call an FTT within a couple of ticks, anxious when I'm
less sure and the market moves away from my position. I'm often correct in my
reading, but 2 or 3 bars early, and that can cause a lot of heat.
Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
-At times, remarkably clearly (better on entrances than exits). This is clearly
improving with practice. I keep in mind how many daily stock charts you must
have annotated before turning to realtime futures...
Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see
improvement?
-I often get in too early, then exit and then don't get back in when the move
actually occurs. I also have trouble with medium and slow markets because they
often seem to drift for a long time and move significantly in a one-bar spike;
this often seems like it could go either way.
Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate
continuation or change?
-I'm good on Channels and Gaussians within the pace limitations outlined above.
I haven't been using the Str/Squ much as I haven't found QCharts reliable enough
in NOW (from my location) and haven't figured out Mak's tool.
and finally ....
How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
Well, you're doing a great job as is, and I think your pedagogical strategy of
letting people confront the material/tools on their own and then responding in
detail to specific problems/questions is excellent (if a bit frustrating for
those who'd like it all outlined in advance).
One thing that might be a very useful resource at this point would be a (short)
Camtasia of your screen with your voiceover comments. Apart from seeing when you
annotate, and hearing your reading of what you see as it happens, this would
also help in getting a sense of how often to sweep, etc. I seem to oscillate
between constant sweeps (which does little but create anxiety) and getting tired
of it and not sweeping often enough. Needn't be long, perhaps just of the
opening bars...
Hope this helps.
Volume Review
Quote from optioncoach:
So my suggestion is that a major part of the review focus on reading volume.
__________________
optioncoach
As usual, an excellent post. My thoughts exactly but said much better than I
can.
Thanks nkhoi, I am reading it through now, looks very helpful
Cheers
Quote from nkhoi:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&pagenumber=102
The attaced chart is an example of my trading ruminations and my problems.
Most of my problems happened yesterday between
10am and 11am. After that I had no problems cause I had to get back to my job.
ANy commets wold be greatly appreciated.
Here are my comments for what they are worth:
1. The main reason you had trouble trading on April 31st is that day does not
even exist LOL (date on your chart).
2. On the left chart on YM I think you correctly noted the short entry on the
breakout of the thin green trendline/channel on increasing red volume and also
because it was a point 3 breakout from opening move lower. You also correctly,
IMHO, started the red channel going down on that breakout after Point 2
formation, looking for point 3.
However, after a few bars retrace, a large black volume line appeared on move
higher above your drawn in channel. I think this would call for a reversal since
volume and price did not follow through what you would expect to happen on the
BO fo the thin green channel/trendline and in fact signalled strength in the
other direction. If you were short you could cover for a small loss and go long
and you would have caught the 30 or so point move in the YM following that which
would have more than made up for the loss on the quick reversal of the breakout.
I am not at expert status yet but here is a perfect example of where VOLUME
tells us we are on the wrong side and we should switch and VOLUME and PRICE
keeps telling us it was the right call.
Quote from 8833broc:
The attaced chart is an example of my trading ruminations and my problems. Most of my problems happened yesterday between
10am and 11am. After that I had no problems cause I had to get back to my job.
ANy commets wold be greatly appreciated.
stretch/squeeze observation, question
This morning on bar 4 (about 1/2 way through bar) I called an FTT. Early in
bar 5, the volume situation made it look more like a flaw to me and I reversed
to short.
I was happily rewarded. This is the first time I recognized a flaw of this
nature so early on. Credit is due to the review of Fridays' HVS. But also, I
noted throughout several minutes that S/S seemed to persist more below minus 2
than above positive 2. This didn't occur at any specific decision point, but
throughout the flaw. Is this a valid way to use S/S or was it coincidence?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: stretch/squeeze observation, question
Quote from bundlemaker:
This morning on bar 4 (about 1/2 way through bar) I called an FTT. Early in bar 5, the volume situation made it look more like a flaw to me and I reversed to short.
Quote from bundlemaker:
I was happily rewarded. This is the first time I recognized a flaw of this nature so early on. Credit is due to the review of Fridays' HVS. But also, I noted throughout several minutes that S/S seemed to persist more below minus 2 than above positive 2. This didn't occur at any specific decision point, but throughout the flaw. Is this a valid way to use S/S or was it coincidence?
__________________
Here is what I have so far
My chart so far...
Chart for the morning. +5 points.
Interesting part started at 10.
red volume , 91 K or so. next three bars are lateral so good point to enter. (I
didn't). The point is, we need more than 91K of volume to create a downtrend....
That's a lot of volume and the question is are we getting it. The next bar is
lower on lower volume and I am looking to go long, around 10:30. RTL on YM has
already broken. As soon as I noticed YM is moving lateral I enter at 10:34, the
moment ES RTL is broken.
After that no reason to sell so far. After FTT's we are only seeing laterals so
far and no decreasing red.
regards,
Ivo
My typical trading day annotated with time of trades and thoughts. I am not
quite lost but I have a tendency of overtrading and over thinking.
I got the date right this time.
is this a stall or the first part of R2R seq?
Quote from nkhoi:
is this a stall or the first part of R2R seq?
__________________
Hi,
Another thought just popped into my head that I need clarifying on.
See pic please:
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=52vtdvc
EDIT: one in real time today between yellow channel lines ?
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=4pd30h0
Cheers
Quote from Razor:
Another thought just popped into my head that I need clarifying on.
__________________
Cheers
Quote from Spydertrader:
Both channels in the first link represent FTT's. It doesn't matter how many times Price bounces off the left trendline, we still have an FTT.
Yes, the yellow channel had an FTT as you have marked it.
- Spydertrader
ES 1 May 07
One trade L 14:20 @ 89, exit 14:42 @ 92.50
Today included several good examples of why I struggle to identify each new pt
3. Wide traverses with sub-traverses within them resulted in several channels
being widened to match the gaussians and even this was rather subjective. I have
noted two instances where black prv kicked in well after the suspected pt 3,
only to reverse within the bar. If I could identify a pt3 more reliably then I
suspect many of the small losses could be avoided.
Re: Volume Review
Quote from Spydertrader:
I agree. As a result, our review begins with insuring we all understand how Gaussian Volume Formations must match the channels - every channel. The Gaussian Volume Formations appear to create challenges when the Price and Volume Bar color (at the close) fails to match the lines we draw above the volume bars. In addition, varying volume levels (when the volume bars don't develop in the exact fashion as represented by the hand drawn examples provided in the past) creates a source of confusion (Is this increasing? Is this decreasing? It started red, but now its black, so how do I draw this line?).
.......
As always, one should see decreasing volume back to the right trend line with increasing volume on a breakout. The same rules apply as before, but beginning today, we all need to make sure we strictly follow the Gaussian Formations. In such a fashion, everyone should begin to see clarity as how Volume Leads Price.
If anyone finds the above instructions confusing, please let me know.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Volume and Gaussian Cycles
Spydertrader,
( or whomever feels qualified to answer)
I have a question in regards today's chart and proper labelling. I am unsure if
I am labelling the gaussian cycles properly. The area in question on my chart
marked by the green vertical lines from 11:20--11:35. The 11:20 bar made a new
high and finished lower on vol of 23.7k. The 11:30 bar finished higher on vol of
19.5k. The 11:35 bar made a new high by 2 ticks and was met with selling. Volume
was 22.8.. It appeared to me that price was advancing as red volume was
increasing. Have I mislabelled my gaussian cycle as R2R ? Does the peak/low in
price have to correspond with the peak/low of the gaussian cycle? I have placed
an alternate labelling above the volume bars. Please tell me which one is
correct.
My thinking at the time was that price was advancing but selling pressure was
coming in (increasing red volume) and the 11:35 bar was an ftt: consider change.
This may have been a logical conclusion based on incorrect drawing of my
channels. I looked at the chart Spydertrader posted. I fanned out from pt 1 AM
low whereas he drew a new up channel from the previous point 3. Is it incorrect
to fan out from the previous point 1 when price moves laterally? If I had drawn
a new up channel from the previous pt 3 then the 11:35 bar would not have been
considered an ftt.
Thanks
PCT
Alternate labelling. Sorry
PCT
My chart for today, please critique
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=64531mx
Cheers
My chart for today..
I tried to annotate the gaussians...I think it went well
it's hard to match the gaussians with the channels, but this forces me to
annotate what I expect will came next...i.e. -PRV, +PRV, increasing Red, decr
Black, etc..
My main problem continues to id FTTs to "early"
When I suspect I found a FTT, sometimes because of the highest volume bar which
I interpret as a "entry" signal, the price continues to go higher, even with
volume decreasing....(I know it means change..but in that moment, I'm already in
the market getting 2 or 3 pnts of heat)
I need to solve this anxiety to ASAP ID a FTT...
Regards,
Pedro
Quote from Razor:
My chart for today, please critique
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=64531mx
Cheers
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Quote from PepeIlegal:
...Pedro
Quote from Razor:
My chart for today, please critique
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=64531mx
Cheers
Even if you doubt ym leads es the gaussians are priceless. If I had a little more faith I would have smoked em today.
Here is today's es. Annotations were RT until about 2:00 pm est. Something to
note if you were watching the 10:00 bar today when the ISM Mfg Index numbers
came out. the es shot up and kissed the 20sma perfectly, then retreated. For
those of you that don't think the 20sma has any value, I beg to differ. IMO it's
worth watching!
Re: stretch/squeeze observation, question
Quote from bundlemaker:
This morning on bar 4 (about 1/2 way through bar) I called an FTT. Early in bar 5, the volume situation made it look more like a flaw to me and I reversed to short.
I was happily rewarded. This is the first time I recognized a flaw of this nature so early on. Credit is due to the review of Fridays' HVS. But also, I noted throughout several minutes that S/S seemed to persist more below minus 2 than above positive 2. This didn't occur at any specific decision point, but throughout the flaw. Is this a valid way to use S/S or was it coincidence?
Today's ES
05-01-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from PepeIlegal:
...
My main problem continues to id FTTs to "early"
When I suspect I found a FTT, sometimes because of the highest volume bar which I interpret as a "entry" signal, the price continues to go higher, even with volume decreasing....
Today's YM Chart
05-01-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Thanks for the replys guys
Re: Volume and Gaussian Cycles
Quote from pct:
My thinking at the time was that price was advancing but selling pressure was coming in (increasing red volume) and the 11:35 bar was an ftt: consider change. This may have been a logical conclusion based on incorrect drawing of my channels. I looked at the chart Spydertrader posted. I fanned out from pt 1 AM low whereas he drew a new up channel from the previous point 3. Is it incorrect to fan out from the previous point 1 when price moves laterally? If I had drawn a new up channel from the previous pt 3 then the 11:35 bar would not have been considered an ftt.
__________________
Re: Volume and Gaussian Cycles
Quote from pct:
Spydertrader,
( or whomever feels qualified to answer)
I have a question in regards today's chart and proper labelling. I am unsure if I am labelling the gaussian cycles properly. The area in question on my chart marked by the green vertical lines from 11:20--11:35. The 11:20 bar made a new high and finished lower on vol of 23.7k. The 11:30 bar finished higher on vol of 19.5k. The 11:35 bar made a new high by 2 ticks and was met with selling. Volume was 22.8.. It appeared to me that price was advancing as red volume was increasing. Have I mislabelled my gaussian cycle as R2R ? Does the peak/low in price have to correspond with the peak/low of the gaussian cycle? I have placed an alternate labelling above the volume bars. Please tell me which one is correct.
My thinking at the time was that price was advancing but selling pressure was coming in (increasing red volume) and the 11:35 bar was an ftt: consider change. This may have been a logical conclusion based on incorrect drawing of my channels. I looked at the chart Spydertrader posted. I fanned out from pt 1 AM low whereas he drew a new up channel from the previous point 3. Is it incorrect to fan out from the previous point 1 when price moves laterally? If I had drawn a new up channel from the previous pt 3 then the 11:35 bar would not have been considered an ftt.
Thanks
PCT
Quote from nkhoi:
you need to note b2b and r2r where the direction change.
Quote from ivob:
"Volume precedes price". I'm just repeating Jack and stuff I have read. First there's the volume, then the price following. Often price will peak after the volume peak. I find this especially true for example on a tape, when price is moving in one direction. So if I look for FTT and think I see one in a tape or after a lot of movement in one direction I will wait one or two bars. If I see volume + price peaking in a area of congestion for example in a rounded top or bottom (we often already had the first peak then), I enter usually on same bar.
However, it is recommended for beginners, and that includes me, enter on point 3. (so after the FTT). First FTT, then decreasing non dominant volume, then BO, then pt3 in the new dominant direction on increasing volume. Exit on RTL break of the new channel.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from PepeIlegal:
Hi nkhoi,
Thank you for your suggestion
I had annotated the b2b and the r2r, but I think they are annotated in a different way.
...
My chart and my thoughts. I annotated my chart between 1055 till 1120 with
the rational for entering and exiting trades. This is typical of my results
where I have decent initial entries and then
misread and overreact to things that I think I see on the charts.
I was away during midday, thus no channels and annotation.
Spydertrader and Jander
Thanks for the reply. That helps resolve my confusion
PCT
Hey Spydertrader,
When you mention price must breakout on increasing vol, what does this mean
exactly? To what are we comparing the volume of a potential breakout to? Thanks!
Quote from nkhoi:
sometime you have them match, sometime you don't.
I think I may have solved my own question, but please let me know if I am
just flat wrong. The BO volume of, say the RTL of an up channel would have to be
on increasing vol of the retrace channel as it BO's the RTL (ie as the
upchannel's RTL is being breached this coincides with the maximum vol of the
current retrace channel thus far)
Am I close? Thanks for the help
What I have so far...
worth repeating...
PointOne on spotting a FTT
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...540#post1297540
ES Chart
__________________
Chart for the morning.
Everything was clear. No bad trades and +3 points. Have to work on holding now.
regards,
Ivo
Hi,
Is this 11:40am est - 12:15 (could be more) on ES considered CCC or HVS or
whatever ?
Cheers
Quote from Razor:
Is this 11:40am est - 12:15 (could be more) on ES considered CCC or HVS or whatever ?
__________________
Wow, OK thanks
Quote from Spydertrader:
During the above mentioned time frame, we see several FTT's followed by several FBO's until finally price breaks out.
- Spydertrader
ES 2 May 07
3 trades, -1.5,0,-1
ES 5 min
my ES 5 Min
Hope gaussians are better than yesterday...
I had some data feed problems from esignal in the morning and
haven't simulated today...just monitoring and observing the Gaussians...
STR/SQU is of no good for me.. I will probably forget this tool and will focus
only on gaussians and channels...
As Spyder says, we must be consistent profitable just with Gaussians and
Channels...I have to get this in stone first
Regards to all,
Pedro.
.
Today's ES
Hi,
I made some changes on the "ProRataVolume" indicator for eSignal that I found
here (I don't know who was the programmer, but I hope he doesn't mind
)
if someone wants to use it fell free
Changes:
- Removed the hard coded 5 min Period. Now it works automatically with any
period (can be used for "YM 2 Min", "ES 2 Min" or "ES 15 min"). (YM use is
nice...)
- Changed the color for "Prorata" from "DarkGrey" to "Green"
- Thicker volume bars
- It starts to inform for PRV 5 sec from new bar start (it was 30 sec before)
- I rouded the PRV for not show "fractions of contracts"
- "Wild Volumes limit" changed to 100.000 from 25.000
- Clear the previous bar "Prorate" indicator
- No Maxscale limitation. Now it automatically scales for all volume bars in
current window
Problems not solved yet:
- The rays for DU, VDU, slow, medium, fast are only for "ES 5 Min"; I will use
parameters to be defined in each use
(Dont' know this levels for YM 2Min)
Regards,
Today's ES Chart
05-02-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
5 MIN ES
Today's YM Chart
05-02-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from dkm:
ES 5 min
Hello Spyder,
I have a few questions.
1.
When using str/sq to enter you keep on monitoring str/sq during that same bar
for signals in the opposite direction until the bar is over. Are we
talking here about YM bars or ES bars? I suppose it's YM as str/sq involves YM
and not ES. Just want to make sure.
2.
Do you give any importance to str/sq during the opening? I was having values of
+10 or more and no contra signals during this period of action today. As we all
know we had a significant run up after this so I do suppose it is an indication.
The reason I am asking this is that someone mentioned futures + cash have to
synchronize etc and that str/sq values during the opening are not relialble. But
I do not recall you mentioning this so I want to know.
Regards,
Ivo
Todays ES
Quote from ivob:
1. Are we talking here about YM bars or ES bars?
Quote from ivob:
2. Do you give any importance to str/sq during the opening?
__________________
Quote from Tums:
dkm:
nice chart you have. very precise channels. I wonder why you do not label your pt1 and pt2 ? They will help you to visualize which resolution you are working on.
Increasing or Decreasing?
Quote from The Swordsman:
When you mention price must breakout on increasing vol, what does this mean exactly? To what are we comparing the volume of a potential breakout to? Thanks!
__________________
ftt's
I continue to have a hard time understanding ftt's. I know what they are and
I see them. I don't trade them usually but would still like some clarification.
Last time I asked I was told to read the begining of the journal, which I did
for hours and found many things helpful. I have no trouble with the channels and
gaussians and being able to trade this method but could not trade ftt to ftt
successful at this time.
A few bars in question.
9:50 is see as a dip but at the time thought it was an ftt.
9:55 looks like the dip bar to me until the next bar was finished.
Am I supposed to see the difference on the bar or wait for the next bar to
confirm. If I wait til the next bar it would make trading the ftts much riskier
at this resolution.
15:50 bar I thought was an ftt.
Sometimes people note ftt's when vol. increases on the bar and sometime when vol
decreases.
I'd appreciate it if someone could provide some clarification.
Thanks
Re: ftt's
Quote from ticktrade:
I continue to have a hard time understanding ftt's. I know what they are and I see them. I don't trade them usually but would still like some clarification. Last time I asked I was told to read the begining of the journal, which I did for hours and found many things helpful.
Quote from ticktrade:
I have no trouble with the channels and gaussians and being able to trade this method but could not trade ftt to ftt successful at this time.
Quote from ticktrade:
A few bars in question.
9:50 is see as a dip but at the time thought it was an ftt.
Quote from ticktrade:
9:55 looks like the dip bar to me until the next bar was finished.
Quote from ticktrade:
Am I supposed to see the difference on the bar or wait for the next bar to confirm. If I wait til the next bar it would make trading the ftts much riskier at this resolution.
Quote from ticktrade:
15:50 bar I thought was an ftt.
Quote from ticktrade:
Sometimes people note ftt's when vol. increases on the bar and sometime when vol decreases. I'd appreciate it if someone could provide some clarification.
__________________
Thanks for the reply.
I have read all these things, most of it more than once. I will review the links
you mentioned again. Sometimes I'm a little slow at comprehending, thus I have
to read things several times.
You are correct on the 15:50 bar. Ensign time stamps there bars with the bar end
time. I forgot to adjust that one when I wrote the previous post. I should have
said the 15:45 bar. After the next bar I knew what it was.
I recognize my short comings and have been trying to stay on a resolution level
that matches my understanding of signals at this time. This has helped. I am
still trying to forget what I knew and stay in a trade until I see change. I
tend to take profits way too soon. It is like the exits don't match the
resolution of the entries so at this time I miss a lot of the move. It is
fixable
Quote from ticktrade:
Thanks for the reply.
I have read all these things, most of it more than once. I will review the links you mentioned again. Sometimes I'm a little slow at comprehending, thus I have to read things several times.
Quote from ticktrade:
You are correct on the 15:50 bar. Ensign time stamps there bars with the bar end time. I forgot to adjust that one when I wrote the previous post. I should have said the 15:45 bar. After the next bar I knew what it was.
Quote from ticktrade:
I recognize my short comings and have been trying to stay on a resolution level that matches my understanding of signals at this time. This has helped. I am still trying to forget what I knew and stay in a trade until I see change. I tend to take profits way too soon. It is like the exits don't match the resolution of the entries so at this time I miss a lot of the move. It is fixable
__________________
Quote from ticktrade:
guess I need to work on the attachment function.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1450634
Sypder,
The potential FTT marked 2 on the attached chart that you labeled a HVS
has more red volume than the subsequent green ftt that you labeled. I would of
probably recognized and labeled the green FTT 1 bar later than you.
I would of definitely labeled and probably reacted to the HVS bar ( marked 2 )
as a ftt and would of traded out of it for a couple of tick loss when the
congestion area was broken on the upside.
I'm probably beating a dead horse but feel this is the crux of my problem and
probably others.
Your recent charts with all of the micro channels labeled are really helping me
see the different levels of gaussians.
thank You!
Quote from 8833broc:
Sypder,
The potential FTT marked 2 on the attached chart that you labeled a HVS
has more red volume than the subsequent green ftt that you labeled. I would of probably recognized and labeled the green FTT 1 bar later than you.
I would of definitely labeled and probably reacted to the HVS bar ( marked 2 ) as a ftt and would of traded out of it for a couple of tick loss when the congestion area was broken on the upside.
I'm probably beating a dead horse but feel this is the crux of my problem and probably others.
Your recent charts with all of the micro channels labeled are really helping me see the different levels of gaussians.
thank You!
Quote from ticktrade:
Ensign time stamps there bars with the bar end time.
Spyder,
I saw the 15:20 ES bar as a potential FTT as it went slightly lower on less red
vol and also just touches the LTL. Price then shot up nicely on the very next
bar giving me confidence that the FTT probably legit. My question is, what
specifically tells you that we arent going to make it to the RTL of the down
channel (for a potential BO or FBO) rather turn around and head lower? The only
thing I see is price is at the RTL of the YM and the 20 SMA is acting like
resistance there.
Thoughts?
How do you know?
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
My question is, what do you specifically that tells you that we aren't going to make it to the RTL of the down channel (for a potential BO or FBO) rather turn around and head lower?
__________________
Re: How do you know?
I agree with you 100% when peak volume fades like that at newer highs I also
see this as a good sign that the mkt has run out of steam at this particular
time. However, after we BO the upchannel at 15:00 (on my chart I have an
upchannel ) on increasing vol we are definitely in a down channel. The 15:20 bar
to me, looks very similar to the 14:20 (slightly higher highs on significantly
less black vol) bar of the up channel, slightly lower lows on significantly less
selling vol. I got long here and the very next bar was nice to see. For all I
know, price could traverse back to the RTL and either BO or FBO. I know another
FTT is also possible and this is what ultimately happened. I am just trying to
figure out if there was something in the 15:30 or 15:35 bars that could have
tipped me off sooner or maybe something on the ym? I know you mention to really
only pay close attention to the YM at points of change like its RTL and I could
see this as being the catalyst for the ES not traversing to its rtl.
Would you view the 15:20 bar as an FTT potentially, all other things being
equal?
Quote from Spydertrader:
While nothing is 100% sure, when I see PRV Levels which indicate significantly less Volume compared to the most recent Peak Volume Levels (13:20 & 14:20), I remain relatively confident that the bar in question isn't going to 'have the stuff' needed to sustain enough momentum to break on through to the other side. Again, anything can (and often does) happen, but when I see decreasing levels of Peak Volume, I view it as an indicator of Market Sentiment. In other words, my brain thinks, "Fewer People than before felt up was the correct direction." As a result, I can then anticipate a smaller retrace, or more importantly, a retrace instead of a reversal.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: How do you know?
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Would you view the 15:20 bar as an FTT potentially, all other things being equal?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: How do you know?
I've been acting under the assumption that we can have an FTT if price
touches the LTL however if any volitility expansion occurs then we cannot. I
guess what I should start thinking is that a touch of the LTL on less volume
than the previous low COULD be a signal for change however def is not a bona
fide FTT right? This makes good sense and is a good vital piece of info.
I guess, from what you've posted here and the previous answers makes me think
that the 15:35 bar shoud have gone higher on dec black vol for me to continue to
hold this non-dom retrace, when it does not (at bars close?), this is my signal
for continuation of the down channel. The 15:30 bar is tough because this could
just pause and the next bar could go higher. You've mentioned before that we
need to see decreasing black vol across the WHOLE retrace channel and alot of
times we dont get this bar by bar as this would make it so much easier to see. I
dont think I could justify exiting the long position based on the ES 15:30 bar
alone, however close inspection of the YM shows that we are at its RTL and price
is exiting on low vol (and 20 SMA there).
Perhaps this could be an early warning that we will FTT again on the ES?
One thing I am really trying to avoid is watching the YM too closely all the
time, rather just focus on it at points of change (FTT, PT 3, RTL). Do you agree
this is the right thing to do?
Thanks for all the help!!
Quote from Spydertrader:
If on your chart, the 15:20 bar failed to reach the RTL, then yes, it makes perfect sense to view it as an FTT. On my chart (and chalk this up to variances among data providers), Price did hit the LTL. As such, it cannot be an FTT (again, on my chart). Still a signal for change, but not an FTT. However, how you viewed the market matters most, and according to your charts, you had an FTT. As a result, you had a signal for change, and acted accordingly. As I see it, you followed the market exactly as you should have. However, after the market failed to provide you with the anticipated continuation data (on subsequent bars), you had an additional signal for change - indicating Price had no intention of continuing higher. What Jack calls, "What wasn't That?" (and others have described as WTF?!?!), reared its ugly head - meaning you didn't continue to see decreasing black volume nor Price continuing to head back up across the channel. At this point, the dominant trend continued (down) and hopefully, you observed this data in time to execute a reversal back to short.
- Spydertrader
what I have so far...
Re: Re: Re: Re: How do you know?
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Perhaps this could be an early warning that we will FTT again on the ES? One thing I am really trying to avoid is watching the YM too closely all the time, rather just focus on it at points of change (FTT, PT 3, RTL). Do you agree this is the right thing to do?
__________________
My chart for the morning.
-5 points.
I traded everything I thought I understood but I find it impossible to make a
profit today. A few times I was up a number of points but then gave it all away
while the FTT was being formed. Will move to realtrading when I have 3 weeks of
profit every day so starting from zero again as of tomorrow.
regards,
Ivo
For creating channel, on the ym for instance, the 11:26 bar is certainly a
volitility expansion and therefore zero cahnce of being a FTT. But can this bar
still be used for pt 1 of a down channel? Or must we start the channel off the
true FTT at 11:28
_DD_
Quote from Duncan Doughnut:
For creating channel, on the ym for instance, the 11:26 bar is certainly a volitility expansion and therefore zero cahnce of being a FTT. But can this bar still be used for pt 1 of a down channel? Or must we start the channel off the true FTT at 11:28
__________________
Thank you. So there is no hard and set rule against using volitility
expansion bars to create channels, just making sure.
Quote from Spydertrader:
You can use either method to begin creation of a channel in the opposite direction of the current trend. Sometimes the Bar which creates the volatility expansion makes better sense to use. other times, the FTT bar makes better sense.
- Spydertrader
When we compare a new high or same high within a channel, what volume do we
compare the most current new high/same high to? An example would be todays ES
13:45 bar has nice black vol (after we BO'ed the down channel). Next two bars
are decreasing red bars (same highs though). Then ES comes back up again and
14:10 bar comes back up and closes with inc black vol. However, I am unsure
whether I compare this highs test (14:10) with the 13:45 bar or do I compare it
to the 13:55 red bar. It seems to make a difference to me as one comparison
shows 14:10 bars test of the high to be on less black vol, but if I compare it
to the 13:55 bar It seems like this is bullish as the volume is greater.
Thanks again for all the words of wisdom
Quote from Duncan Doughnut:
When we compare a new high or same high within a channel, what volume do we compare the most current new high/same high to? An example would be todays ES 13:45 bar has nice black vol (after we BO'ed the down channel). Next two bars are decreasing red bars (same highs though). Then ES comes back up again and 14:10 bar comes back up and closes with inc black vol. However, I am unsure whether I compare this highs test (14:10) with the 13:45 bar or do I compare it to the 13:55 red bar. It seems to make a difference to me as one comparison shows 14:10 bars test of the high to be on less black vol, but if I compare it to the 13:55 bar It seems like this is bullish as the volume is greater.
Thanks again for all the words of wisdom
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Today's es. I found the gaussians more difficult to follow today so I over annotated to try to make sense of them.
Today's ES chart
Hi,
Today I had some dificulties with gaussians...
In times of CCC I always have some doubt in considering the all CCC block as
"dec" or "incr" or to consider one bar a "dec" the other "inc" and the following
"dec" and the following "incr"...and so on...
Can someone give some help here please?
Thanks,
Pedro
Sorry, I know that was too complicated. If you dont mind explaining, when the
14:10 ES bar closes, what is your intial reaction and thinking?
Thank you
Quote from makosgu:
Quote from Duncan Doughnut:
Sorry, I know that was too complicated. If you dont mind explaining, when the 14:10 ES bar closes, what is your intial reaction and thinking?
Thank you
A strong case of misdentifying pt 3's today. Started out with a long from the
pt 3 from the last bar of yesterday. Took a lot of heat on the intial retrace
and would not have held if not using sim. I found the gaussians very hard to
follow. Ended up on various limbs unintentionally. I am trying to stay at the
forest/tree level, entering each pt3 before prv kicks in but clearly a coin toss
at the moment. As the pt3 is forming, I have no idea whether it's a tree or a
limb etc. Looking forward to being able to tell the difference. Chart attached
with errors.
-0.75, -0.75, -1.25, -0.75, -1.25, -0.25
Quote from gooch87:
what I have so far...
Uptill 12pm my chart is RT. THe rest was drawn in after hours.
I wanted to go short real bad around 1130 based on my chart readings and around
1145 I was pretty confused concerning gaussians/forest/tree levels. The 1200 bar
would of taken me out
of a good short. I also annotated very freely this morning without
thinking much.
Quote from ivob:
This can be changed. Setup-->charts-->time stamp bar open time.
regards,
Ivo
no charts today
All
Spyder will not be posting his charts tonight - he had to take care of some
family business and sends his apologies.
He expects to post as usual on Monday and possibly sooner than that
IRL
Quote from 8833broc:
Uptill 12pm my chart is RT. THe rest was drawn in after hours.
I wanted to go short real bad around 1130 based on my chart readings and around 1145 I was pretty confused concerning gaussians/forest/tree levels. The 1200 bar would of taken me out
of a good short. I also annotated very freely this morning without
thinking much.
)
within the timeframe you mention above. I'll try to relate what I was seeing at
the time, while referring to your chart:
Quote from dkm:
A strong case of misdentifying pt 3's today. Started out with a long from the pt 3 from the last bar of yesterday. Took a lot of heat on the intial retrace and would not have held if not using sim. I found the gaussians very hard to follow. Ended up on various limbs unintentionally. I am trying to stay at the forest/tree level, entering each pt3 before prv kicks in but clearly a coin toss at the moment. As the pt3 is forming, I have no idea whether it's a tree or a limb etc. Looking forward to being able to tell the difference. Chart attached with errors.
-0.75, -0.75, -1.25, -0.75, -1.25, -0.25
Quote from ivob:
My chart for the morning.
-5 points.
I traded everything I thought I understood but I find it impossible to make a profit today. A few times I was up a number of points but then gave it all away while the FTT was being formed. Will move to realtrading when I have 3 weeks of profit every day so starting from zero again as of tomorrow.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from PointOne:
Hi gooch
this is my chart at the same point. We had the same lateral but my green channel gave me more information than your blue channel, imo e.g spotting the FTT at 11:25 .
Trying to read volume bar to bar sent me the wrong way a couple of times - hope to discuss in more detail later as I think everyone found it tough.
what I have so far
and here is the correct chart
and here is the correct chart
For those of you still struggling or doubtful, I thought I'd add my most
recently available 2 cents. Without question I am seeing things that I couldn't
before. I'd have swore what I now see didn't even previously exist, and of
course, that's ridiculous.
The three things I'm doing to achieve this new found skill are as follows:
1) force the gaussians to fit the channels: doing so teaches one how to really
see the split bars correctly and to stay on the right resolution level
2) I started to trust what the volume was telling me, particulary with potential
flaws. This has kept me out of more mistakes than I can begin to mention.
3) Try something different, anything different. There is an old saying in the
NLP world: you can't see what you can't see. Human sight is highly subjective
and filtered. Instead of getting angry that you can't see what others are, try
going for a walk, laughing out loud (this really really is powerful) or the
opposite of what you normally do (which requires you to be aware of what you
normally do, not an easy task by any means). Doing any of these causes
physiological shifts which change in a very real way how your brain processes
things.
I am still in observation/annotation mode, but I can tell you that most of my
annotations for points, ftt's, hvs, etc are usually right on on the bar I
annotate. I am seeing into the future often by as much as 3 or 4 bars. And the
occaisional outlier bar (eg: a single bar with odd volume) no longer causes me
to panic).
I hope this post helps someone, if I can think of other internal shifts I've
made I will post.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
My chart so far....
Quote from Mr_Black:
My chart so far....
__________________
Thanks Spyder
4 May 07 so far
No channels today on NQ but I have been drawing channels on AAPL intraday the
past week and I like what I see. Today scalped $0.35 on AAPL intraday on
breakouts.
As Spyder said, any market any time frame as long as there is volaitlity and
liquidity.
Thursday's Charts
Thursday 05-03-2007 ES Chart
Real-time annotations until 1:00 PM Eastern Time.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Thursday's Charts
Thursday 05-03-2007 YM Chart
Real-time annotations until 1:00 PM Eastern Time.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's chart 5 MIN ES
Here is today's ES chart.
-Mike
Today's ES Chart
05-04-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-04-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
My ES for today...
All and all a MUCH better week for me. The one change to the beginner method
I made was to exit on the FTT rather than waiting for the BO. So entering on a
PT3 and exiting on the FTT, has given me a profitable week finally. Last week
was a disaster.
Mon: -1.75 (I was still actually waiting for the BO on Monday)
Tue: +2.0
Wed: No trades, vol very low
Thu: +2.75
Fri: +2.75
I feel much better I believe this
is also forcing me to look harder for the FTT's. Before, even though I know I
was supposed to be looking for them for learning purposes, I was too concerned
with the balance sheet and foregoing the learning.
.
Quote from bdolnik:
The one change to the beginner method I made was to exit on the FTT rather than waiting for the BO. So entering on a PT3 and exiting on the FTT, has given me a profitable week finally.
Bar 4
Does anyone have anything to say about bar 4 on Friday? Seemed like a very
important bar to me.
In real time, was it a Pt3 (short) or a stall? When did you KNOW? Being long
from bar 3, as you were, how did bar 4 FEEL?
Have a great w/e everyone,
Re: Bar 4
Quote from PointOne:
Does anyone have anything to say about bar 4 on Friday? Seemed like a very important bar to me.
In real time, was it a Pt3 (short) or a stall? When did you KNOW? Being long from bar 3, as you were, how did bar 4 FEEL?
Have a great w/e everyone,
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Bar 4
Quote from PointOne:
Does anyone have anything to say about bar 4 on Friday?
In real time, was it a Pt3 (short) or a stall?
Re: Bar 4
Quote from PointOne:
Does anyone have anything to say about bar 4 on Friday? Seemed like a very important bar to me.
In real time, was it a Pt3 (short) or a stall? When did you KNOW? Being long from bar 3, as you were, how did bar 4 FEEL?
Have a great w/e everyone,
I would be interested in reading anyone's thoughts concerning the inclusion of the NFP action in our charting. I started my charts yesterday an hour early in order to include this information, since many consider it the most important report of each month. Often times this action will create the high or low of the session, and if nothing else it provides another visual reference for price movement. No doubt this is all just a matter of choice, but if there are justified reasons why one should not include, I would appreciate knowing. Cheers ...
We continued a discussion started by this post. If interested you can view it
here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&pagenumber=16
Quote from bundlemaker:
For those of you still struggling or doubtful, I thought I'd add my most recently available 2 cents. Without question I am seeing things that I couldn't before. I'd have swore what I now see didn't even previously exist, and of course, that's ridiculous.
snip. . .
I noticed in Spyders YM chart that he had a carryover channel from premarket
highs.
Quote from mephistoII:
I would be interested in reading anyone's thoughts concerning the inclusion of the NFP action in our charting. I started my charts yesterday an hour early in order to include this information, since many consider it the most important report of each month. Often times this action will create the high or low of the session, and if nothing else it provides another visual reference for price movement. No doubt this is all just a matter of choice, but if there are justified reasons why one should not include, I would appreciate knowing. Cheers ...
I think I'm finally starting understand these methods. I am starting to pick out FTT's in my E7M07 Charts.
__________________
"let it drop, take out your sell stop"
Quote from mephistoII:
I would be interested in reading anyone's thoughts concerning the inclusion of the NFP action in our charting.
__________________
Quote from TradingBillions:
I think I'm finally starting understand these methods. I am starting to pick out FTT's in my E7M07 Charts.
Quote from TradingBillions:
I think I'm finally starting understand these methods. I am starting to pick out FTT's in my E7M07 Charts.
what I have so far...
today's quiz.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...=&postid=473136
this diagram is from one of Jack's threads.
Today's ES Chart
05-07-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-07-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hi
Today was an amazing day... this high volatility was too much for me....
Anyway...
Spyder, if you please, I want to ask you one thing...
You have stated many times that one for having success with this methodology one
must always think in terms of Change and Continuation. That one
must always be aware for signals of Change when one is already in the
market, and act accordingly immediately.
I have found many times several signals of change that cannot be taken
"immediately" because price is not "ready" to change direction when signal
shows. I give you an example: For instance, when we see decreasing volume with
price making new highs, we know that price will change direction anytime
soon...what we don't know is when.
This signal, I think, must alert someone to wait for another signal of change,
not to act immediately..
I believe the other change signal should be in Price. I tried to look to price
and see if I can see 'long up tails' in the following bars, but this often makes
me antecipate the FFT for 1 or 2 bars.
Of course, if volume suddenly starts to increase (compared to previous bars)
this 'change' signal must be invalidated, and we come back to "Continuous" mode.
I ask you if is this correct?, or I should search for another 'change' signal
other than Price when this kind of situations happens?
Thanks in advance,
Regards,
Change Signal
Quote from PepeIlegal:
Today was an amazing day... this high volatility was too much for me....
Quote from PepeIlegal:
This signal, I think, must alert someone to wait for another signal of change, not to act immediately..
__________________
Re: Change Signal
Quote from Spydertrader:
(...)
Unfortunately (as if we needed enough things to keep in our heads), context plays a major role as well. Since the current context in which we currently find ourselves (with respect to the 'right side of the market') constantly changes, so too does the definition of 'sufficient data set' change throughout the day. When price breaks out of CCC, a sufficient data set might mean increasing PRV of a particular color. Yet, when price finds itself on a left trend line around 10:00 AM, the sufficient data set might include STR / SQU and the DOM Wall.
As you can see, experience (knowing when you know enough) determines when you have sufficiency. Based on your post, it looks to me that you have yourself on the right track.
- Spydertrader [/B]
Re: Re: Change Signal
Quote from PepeIlegal:
Unfortunately, I don't know how to make a good use of STR/SQU for now, and I have 'ignored' it for the time being.
__________________
Re: Quiz
Quote from Tums:
today's quiz.
__________________
Background Material
I ran across
this thread today during a search on another topic. I noticed I had
neglected to include it in the original Background Material on page one of this
Journal. I include it now in case someone finds the information helpful.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Spyder:
I have two questions regarding forest level trading (didn't find answers in the
thread):
One is after I enter on PT3, do I wait for the initial RTL (which was formed
using this PT3) to be broken only or additional RTLs which appear later also
suit for this?
And another is what if I enter on a PT3 and then see an FTT which is at the same
time PT3 inside the current channel is it a valid reverse signal or should I
wait until the break of RTL to stay in a forest level?
Quote from CFerret:
One is after I enter on PT3, do I wait for the initial RTL (which was formed using this PT3) to be broken only or additional RTLs which appear later also suit for this?
Quote from CFerret:
And another is what if I enter on a PT3 and then see an FTT which is at the same time PT3 inside the current channel is it a valid reverse signal or should I wait until the break of RTL to stay in a forest level?
__________________
Low Range Day
Since Monday marked the first really tight range / low volume day
since beginning the Journal, I wanted to take the pulse of those individuals
following along. To that end, please feel free to provide input on the following
questions (or any other input desired).
How did everyone perform on such a low range day? Could you 'see' the market
better in the morning compared to the afternoon? Even with the extremely low
volume and tight range, could you still draw in the Gaussians? Did you sideline
when the extremely low volume hit? Did you ride it out? How did it all work out?
Thanks in advance for any responses.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Low Range Day
Quote from Spydertrader:
Since Monday marked the first really tight range / low volume day since beginning the Journal, I wanted to take the pulse of those individuals following along. To that end, please feel free to provide input on the following questions (or any other input desired).
snip . . .
Re: Low Range Day
Quote from Spydertrader:
Since Monday marked the first really tight range / low volume day since beginning the Journal, I wanted to take the pulse of those individuals following along. To that end, please feel free to provide input on the following questions (or any other input desired).
How did everyone perform on such a low range day? Could you 'see' the market better in the morning compared to the afternoon? Even with the extremely low volume and tight range, could you still draw in the Gaussians? Did you sideline when the extremely low volume hit? Did you ride it out? How did it all work out?
Thanks in advance for any responses.
- Spydertrader
Re: Low Range Day
Quote from Spydertrader:
Since Monday marked the first really tight range / low volume day since beginning the Journal, I wanted to take the pulse of those individuals following along. To that end, please feel free to provide input on the following questions (or any other input desired).
- Spydertrader
ES 7 May 07
10:30 S 14.25 on basis of pt 3 at 10:20
11:05 rev to L at 15:25, RTL BO and pt 3 10:55
11:08 exit 14.00 RTL BO
2 trades -1, -1.25
When I saw volume drop to du I monitored from the sidelines for the remainder of
the day.
Spyder-
When Monday started, the first thing I noticed was volume was not even to
extraordinary levels. Thinking I was on a bad Qcharts server, I switched, but
found the volume was correct. I then thought, this is going to be a 'slow' day
(ie, low volatility and high risk, therefore sitting out) with the FOMC on Wed.
I wouldn't say I 'saw' the market any better or worse as the day went on, I just
tried to 'listen' better. I am happy with my performance yesterday in being able
to recognize the lower volume and to anticipate lower volatility as a
consequence.
The YM helped out on the gau. Later in the day when bars would open and close at
the same price resulting in a black bar, I really had to look at the YM to make
sure the gau were correct. I also realized at this VDU level, I was observing
noise. I count at least four '1 tick' bars yesterday. No money to be made there,
so I was sidelined most of the day.
Overall still a productive day, had fun in the chat, made progress on some
reading, and kept up with the annotations.
Thank you again for your unselfish efforts,
Mike
I pay close attention the the volume. When the volume dried up, with the tape
broken successively on both directions, I sat out.
Spent the day programming my indicator alerts.
I sidelined as well, I could see the gaussians fine however could also see that we werent moving. Better to not get involved w/o the finer tools than to push it when its just not there.
I did one trade, long on bar 6 and washed for -2 ticks. It was pointed out to me in the room that the first three bars were declining volume which I seem to have overlooked so I did learn something. PAY MORE ATTENTION! I then missed the only decent trade of the day which was the short on bar 6-7 because I was on the wrong side of things. No more trades after that.
I went long on bar 5 at the PT3 (Fill price marked with the green horizontal
line), then held a little too long before reversing at the gold horizontal line.
Covered on bar 9 for an overall .75 loss. Stayed out for the rest of the day
after that because of the low volume.
By as early as mid morning I was anticapating a tight day. As soon as DU
volume set in for more than a few bars I more or less moved on to a more
suitable project for the day (ie not trading LOL).
I still get in trouble on false b/o bars like 12:00. I correct my error by the
bar or two, but am wondering if I'm not seeing something that would have kept me
out (I'll bet DOM and range charts will help).
The nice thing is I had no really big surprises and felt good about making a
decision to not focus on the market in the pm without feeling like I'd be
missing out on something.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
My chart so far ....whit paper trades marked...
so far...
Re: Low Range Day
Quote from Spydertrader:
Since Monday marked the first really tight range / low volume day since beginning the Journal, I wanted to take the pulse of those individuals following along. To that end, please feel free to provide input on the following questions (or any other input desired).
How did everyone perform on such a low range day? Could you 'see' the market better in the morning compared to the afternoon? Even with the extremely low volume and tight range, could you still draw in the Gaussians? Did you sideline when the extremely low volume hit? Did you ride it out? How did it all work out?
Thanks in advance for any responses.
- Spydertrader
Here are my charts so far, both YM and ES.
Tried something a little different today. Tried to do a complete annotation job
on the YM. I don't know if this is what we should be doing as far as annotating
the YM in conjunction with the ES but I thought I'd try. One thing I found out,
my 'seeing' of the YM Gau was a lot clearer today due to the increased focus.
I hope I am doing a complete job with the annotations, but I've realized I am a
little slow getting them done in time to do proper trades. I must move to
execution first, housekeeping second.
Any comments welcome,
-Mike
Today's Chart
5 MIN ES
Hi..
Today must have been one really easy day...I had my first profit day since I use
this methodology..
* 11 Trades = +2.25
* 9 Positives Trades (3.75 pnts)
* 2 Negative Trades (1.50 pnts), one of them cost me an entire 1.00 pnt
I know that this is a very small profit for you guys, but first time I started
to simulTrade this methodology I lost 10.5 points in just one day...I laughted,
I thought I couldn't make it any worse
Oh well, lets see if I can continue tomorrow.. hmmm.. FOMC day..not very good...
Regards,
Today's ES Chart
05-08-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-08-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
FOMC
Just a reminder,
FOMC
Wednesday 2:15 PM Eastern Time.
- Spydertrader
__________________
At the time of the attached image here were my observations:
The pt3 up (thin green) was on overall decreasing volume, suggesting a
non-dominant traverse. Or, possibly the whole day at this point is a big, sloppy
lateral, coming after a gap down; again suggesting that the market is in a
downtrend.
My YM up pt3 also broke.
On bar 7, price steadily rose, but volume never reached a level that didnt' fit
with overall decreasing black. A 9 tick move yet my data set said continue
short.
Not sure what I did in error here.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Not sure what I did in error here.
__________________
Bundle,
Looking at the YM, I see b2r for the first 3 gau, indicating an uptrend so far
on the YM. The pt3 didn't hold but another less steep channel formed with
another pt3.
Also, if you entered on bar 4, on a BO of bar 3, this would have been a long
entry.
Hope this helps,
-Mike
Quote from bundlemaker:
At the time of the attached image here were my observations:
The pt3 up (thin green) was on overall decreasing volume, suggesting a non-dominant traverse. Or, possibly the whole day at this point is a big, sloppy lateral, coming after a gap down; again suggesting that the market is in a downtrend.
My YM up pt3 also broke.
On bar 7, price steadily rose, but volume never reached a level that didnt' fit with overall decreasing black. A 9 tick move yet my data set said continue short.
Not sure what I did in error here.
so far
Ok, that was pretty cool. I had a pt3 just form on the YM before FOMC and got PRV inc red as report came out. S/S went way negative and you could follow S/S all the way down for a 7 to 8 point ride. All the while S/S went back and forth from <-2 to neutral. At the bottom S/S went >2 and up we go.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
9 May 07
Today's ES
My chart for today...
FOMC day was ...very interesting at least
Learned some new things...
Always learning.... step by step
Regards,
Today's ES Chart
05-09-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-09-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
STR / SQU
Anyone with an interest, can
Click Here to download a copy of today's STR / SQU in video form.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hey Spydertrader,
I have a question about flaws. I know we are suppose to just hold through them
at our level for now. I see you have marked at CCC 10:40 to 10:55. I got short
at 1511.00 during the 10:55 bar. This is also my RTL. I ended up losing a tick,
but my question is shouldn't prices continue lower? or is this just a WFT?
Also the HVS from 15:05 to 15:20. I would think prices would continue lower
because the current trend is down and down vol is dominant within the flaw?? I
remember you talking about this the other day when a few of us had some
confusion off the open. I think you said try to figure out were prices are
coming from and also look at the volume bars and that should tell a story as
well.
Any info would be helpful, because I can spot these flaws but now I'm nervous
about which way to go.
vjr
Maybe this will be helpful from my perspective as this helped me off the
open. I had a up carryover channel traversing higher into the close of
yesterday. The channel was formed using (10:20, 12:00 and pt 2 vol exp at 14:20
for Tues). The way I see it is, as long as prices are going higher and vol keeps
increasing at each new peak, I would expect the mkt to keep testing or breaking
those highs until vol no longer can sustain it.
Anyways, when we opened today, we were right on that RTL of that CO channel.
During the "sync" time, price held. For me, knowing the overall gaussian of the
CO channel still in place, I wasnt looking for shorts at all, rather expecting
price to test the highs of Tues and price played out to a tee.
Quote from bundlemaker:
The pt3 up (thin green) was on overall decreasing volume, suggesting a non-dominant traverse. Or, possibly the whole day at this point is a big, sloppy lateral, coming after a gap down; again suggesting that the market is in a downtrend.
Not sure what I did in error here.
HVS and CCC
Quote from vjr:
I have a question about flaws. I know we are suppose to just hold through them at our level for now. I see you have marked at CCC 10:40 to 10:55. I got short at 1511.00 during the 10:55 bar. This is also my RTL. I ended up losing a tick, but my question is shouldn't prices continue lower? or is this just a WFT?
Quote from vjr:
Also the HVS from 15:05 to 15:20. I would think prices would continue lower because the current trend is down and down vol is dominant within the flaw?? I remember you talking about this the other day when a few of us had some confusion off the open. I think you said try to figure out were prices are coming from and also look at the volume bars and that should tell a story as well.
__________________
.
__________________
I see said the blind man.
Makes sense. Thanks.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Anyways, when we opened today, we were right on that RTL of that CO channel. During the "sync" time, price held. For me, knowing the overall gaussian of the CO channel still in place, I wasnt looking for shorts at all, rather expecting price to test the highs of Tues and price played out to a tee.
__________________
str/squ - quotetracker / ib
Quote from bundlemaker:
Ok, that was pretty cool. I had a pt3 just form on the YM before FOMC and got PRV inc red as report came out. S/S went way negative and you could follow S/S all the way down for a 7 to 8 point ride. All the while S/S went back and forth from <-2 to neutral. At the bottom S/S went >2 and up we go.
In QCharts, You can quickly overlay a symbol on a chart by holding down Ctrl
and drag-n-drop the symbol into a chart.
__________________
Re: str/squ - quotetracker / ib
Quote from PointOne:
can this be done in Quotetracker/IB in any useful way?
I have one question regarding STR/SQW:
When looking at yesterday's FOMC action (thanks Spyder, after reading your link
I made this indicator right) I noticed not only switch from -2 -> +2 which
indicated a reversal, but also a huge extreme up spike to 20+ area which also
accompanied a strong reversal. In the last case waiting for it to go below -2
would miss most of the move, so the question is:
are these super huge spikes in Str/Sqw also can provide some reversal clues
aside from -2/+2 lines?
Quote from CFerret:
I have one question regarding STR/SQW:
When looking at yesterday's FOMC action (thanks Spyder, after reading your link I made this indicator right) I noticed not only switch from -2 -> +2 which indicated a reversal, but also a huge extreme up spike to 20+ area which also accompanied a strong reversal. In the last case waiting for it to go below -2 would miss most of the move, so the question is:
are these super huge spikes in Str/Sqw also can provide some reversal clues aside from -2/+2 lines?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from CFerret:
I have one question regarding STR/SQW:
When looking at yesterday's FOMC action (thanks Spyder, after reading your link I made this indicator right) I noticed not only switch from -2 -> +2 which indicated a reversal, but also a huge extreme up spike to 20+ area which also accompanied a strong reversal. In the last case waiting for it to go below -2 would miss most of the move, so the question is:
are these super huge spikes in Str/Sqw also can provide some reversal clues aside from -2/+2 lines?
Thanks for explanations makosgu and Ivob.
I have two more questions: is str/sqw also as useful for NFP as it is for FOMC?
And the second is what time point do you use before beginning of the day to
calculate premium offset?
Quote from CFerret:
Thanks for explanations makosgu and Ivob.
I have two more questions: is str/sqw also as useful for NFP as it is for FOMC?
And the second is what time point do you use before beginning of the day to calculate premium offset?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Quote from makosgu:
Yes, excellent commentary Ivob...
NFP???
I just use indexarb.com's values and then go from there. Ideally, you would use the front-end of a zero-coupon yield curve and bootstrap the exact time maturity for the futures in order to back out a fair value that includes divident payments. However, that is overkill... So indexarb.com is good enough and I adjust until I arrive at a neutralized value that works.
makosgu:
When using indexarb.com do you use "Fair Value" from the table on the main page
(it's 38.79 for today)?
Quote from CFerret:
makosgu:
When using indexarb.com do you use "Fair Value" from the table on the main page (it's 38.79 for today)?
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Just came back from holidays and I'm back to learning.
I have a question about this morning’s ES change of direction. After the 3rd
bar, the volume went down. I was thinking it’s a retrace (my orange channel). I
was watching to see if there would be a change or continuation. At the beginning
of the 6th bar there was red volume up and the price started going down (seen
also on YM at 9.54). Just as I pressed SELL, price changed direction.
The question is, when and where did you notice that the direction was about to
change?
PS: I just installed new IQFeed and can’t make Mak’s tool work so I’m not seeing
STR/SQZ
Direction Change
Quote from Gregor_S:
The question is, when and where did you notice that the direction was about to change?
__________________
I see now, carryover channel would have helped me. I recognized FTT on bar 4,
but looks like I’m still having problems differentiating resolution level. At
the start of bar six I thought the branch will fall but it was just some leaves.
Thanks for your time.
so far
I had an exhilarating "AHA" moment this afternoon.
As I watched the 13:10 bar fire down and then start to pull back, I thought to
myself "Well, this could be a FTT. We are going to have increasing volume, and
price has pulled back a bit. So, if this is a FTT, I expect to see decreasing
black volume." The aha moment came though when I glanced over at the YM and
watched that very thing play out before my eyes. A bunch of provisional beliefs
- the YM leads the ES, the same sequences play out over and over, and
anticipating the next moves - became firmly cemented in my mind.
If you are still struggling to see the things being discussed in the journal,
don't despair. Continue to follow along and monitor the market on a regular
basis. Keep working at it and at some point it will click - and when it does
there's no going back.
-Au
Quote from CFerret:
By NFP I meant jobs report (1st Friday of each month).
Will look at indexarb for this info.
Thanks
Janis
ES 10 May 07
Saw the RTL BO at 11:00 and waited for a pt 3. Missed 11:45, thinking that the
L2R traverse was not finished and wanted to avoid entering on a “limb”. Missed
12:50 due to misplaced RTL. After the RTL BO at 13:50, took at long at 14:22 @
03.25. exited at 15:05 @ 02.25 due to RTL BO. The L2R traverse had not finished
and saw 2 more possible pt3’s but did not enter. After the RTL BO at 14:50, saw
the pt 3 at 15:15 but did not take due to strong black volume on prior bar.
Problem of identifying pt3’s in a timely manner continues.
Quote from CFerret:
I have two more questions: is str/sqw also as useful for NFP as it is for FOMC?
Time to throw my hat back in the ring.
Today's ES chart.
Warning: there are more annotations than any sane person would want to read.
Re: Direction Change
Quote from Spydertrader:
As to when exactly do we see a signal indicating something has changed? Do you see the FTT on bar Four?
Good trading to you.
- Spydertrader
[/B]
Ivob,
We had a gap down this morning, which produced a volatility expansion of the
carryover channel. The volatility expansion gives us a heads up that a FTT is
coming up soon. We then see price form a double bottom with the previous bar,
and come to the conclusion that either a FTT OR a flaw is in the process of
forming. Low volume relative to the previous bar is a characteristic of a flaw,
and since we had volume which was close to that of the previous bar, we can
eliminate the possibility of a flaw - leaving only the FTT.
Additionally, looking at the YM at that time, you will see increasing red
volume, followed by decreasing black volume - also indicative of a FTT.
HTH
-Au
Today's chart....
My goods and bads:
Good:
- I believe I can draw channels correctly;
- I believe I cand draw the gaussians correctly and match them with channels,
even if in RT I made some mistakes. Sometimes I think it should be one thing and
happens another
- I can reasonably spot FFTs and when missed I look for pnt3
Bad:
- Bad Exit from Trades. Many 0.25 trades even when winning >1 pnts
- I fail to interpret 'change' signals when on trade; "Sufficient data sets" is
not well understood I think;
- STR/SQU is speaking chinese... I don't have dictionary yet; sometimes I see
<-3 and price go up, sometimes I see >2 and price go down. I had to check 2
times if I hadn't entered the symbols in inverse order. I tryed also to look
only in moments of high volatility for a 'change' signal.. nothing yet...
Today I made 10 trades; overall: +1.25; 7Wins and 3losses
Today's range: 16.5 points!!
(Sorry for thinking out loud)
Regards,
Quote from EstebanUno:
Time to throw my hat back in the ring.
Today's ES chart.
Warning: there are more annotations than any sane person would want to read.
Quote from Aurum:
Ivob,
We had a gap down this morning, which produced a volatility expansion of the carryover channel. The volatility expansion gives us a heads up that a FTT is coming up soon. We then see price form a double bottom with the previous bar, and come to the conclusion that either a FTT OR a flaw is in the process of forming. Low volume relative to the previous bar is a characteristic of a flaw, and since we had volume which was close to that of the previous bar, we can eliminate the possibility of a flaw - leaving only the FTT.
Additionally, looking at the YM at that time, you will see increasing red volume, followed by decreasing black volume - also indicative of a FTT.
HTH
-Au
Today's ES Chart
05-10-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-10-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from ivob:
Mmm. I agree about the vol expansion. the double bottom told me: possible flaw. We had lower volume than the previous bar (I would say about 70-80% of the previous bar). This also told me: flaw. Price closed where it opened and also this told me: flaw.
__________________
A tip for Qchart users: if a 'cleaner' window for a chart or the STR/SQZ is
desired, try right click ->Format->uncheck 'Daily Snapshot Bar' when the cursor
is placed in the chart or window.
This helped me see the extreme values of STR/SQZ yesterday during the FOMC
annoucement.
-Mike
My only real confusion today occured in the first up channel we had (9:45,
9:55, 10:10, the 3 pts). my question has to do with the way it went higher. The
first high, 9:55 was on the greatest volume. I suspect we go higher and we do a
few bars later. The second new high of the channel, 10:15, is on less volume
that the first high. This gets me thinking that the channel is weakening.
Theoretically, for a channel to remain strong, new highs should be on increasing
volume. Anyways, we sell of slightly from here before taking out another new
high. The confusing part for me is that this new high is on less volume that the
9:55 bar. So over the course of the channel, new highs are still be made on
lower volume. For some reason I thought that, because this 10:40 high was made
on greater volume than the 10:15 highs that perhaps the channel had regained
strength again. So after we went lower and the 11:00 bar BO'ed on dec vol, I was
convinced we were searching for a new pt 3 of the up channel. In retrospect, I
can see that this didnt work out.
My question is, once the 10:40 bar fully forms and I see its vol is still less
than the 9:55 vol, should I still be seeing this as weak and avoiding looking to
buy a new pt 3?
Quote from The Swordsman:
For some reason I thought that, because this 10:40 high was made on greater volume than the 10:15 highs that perhaps the channel had regained strength again. So after we went lower and the 11:00 bar BO'ed on dec vol, I was convinced we were searching for a new pt 3 of the up channel. In retrospect, I can see that this didnt work out.
My question is, once the 10:40 bar fully forms and I see its vol is still less than the 9:55 vol, should I still be seeing this as weak and avoiding looking to buy a new pt 3?
OK another day of my observations on StrSqw provided good opportunity despite
no news (thanks to the big sell off).
Here is what I saw as an interesting event: YM (ES too) did a strong volatility
expansion move beyond LTL together with high volume and Str/Sqw provided an
extreme move (relative to the rest of the day) to the upside.
Question to people with more experience: was it a really valid reversal signal?
For me it is important to know that i don't "make up" signals and they really
exist...
Forgot the most important part of the post - attachment! Sorry!
Ivo, thanks for the comments.
The dotted lines represent minor point 3 channels, and the solid lines represent
the major channels I'm attempting to trade. I use the finer dotted line channels
to support trading decisions of the major channels. I've made no attempt to draw
tapes for some time, but maybe it's time to try again.
Quote from ivob:
Hi,
Nice chart but make sure channels "match the gaussians". This means (imo) that the RTL of up channels should touch the bottom of the bars with black volume peaks and the RTL of down channels should touch the top of the bars with red volume because that's where the selling came in.
Quote from ivob:
For example your first dotted grey downchannel. You use top of bar 2 + top of bar 8 for the RTL. Bar 2 is okay (at the top the red volume came in) but bar 8 was buying, not selling. It's black volume.
CFerret just a thought but is it possible this premium move is caused by YM
falling 6 pts before the IB INDU quote was refreshed? I only ask because on my
feed (IQfeed) there is no such move to 6 (I have a high of about 3) and I know
that IB do not refresh their INDU quote as frequently as one would like. Mind
you IQ aren't brilliant either. Do others have this spike?
Also the difference study in Sierra can act a little oddly. You could try
changing the time frame from say 2 sec to 10 sec to 10 min and see if the
premium hi/lo readings are consistent. Mine aren't and I'm not sure if it's a
data or Sierra issue.
What may help is a fast INDU derived directly from the 30 stocks which can be
built in a worksheet, though this may be resource hungry.
Quote from frugi:
CFerret just a thought but is it possible this premium move is caused by YM falling 6 pts before the IB INDU quote was refreshed? I only ask because on my feed (IQfeed) there is no such move to 6 (I have a high of about 3) and I know that IB do not refresh their INDU quote as frequently as one would like. Do others have this spike?
Quote from dkm:
ES 10 May 07
Saw the RTL BO at 11:00 and waited for a pt 3. Missed 11:45, thinking that the L2R traverse was not finished and wanted to avoid entering on a “limb”. Missed 12:50 due to misplaced RTL. After the RTL BO at 13:50, took at long at 14:22 @ 03.25. exited at 15:05 @ 02.25 due to RTL BO. The L2R traverse had not finished and saw 2 more possible pt3’s but did not enter. After the RTL BO at 14:50, saw the pt 3 at 15:15 but did not take due to strong black volume on prior bar. Problem of identifying pt3’s in a timely manner continues.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
An
older post with respect to YM / INDU and Flaws.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from makosgu:
... Days like today MUST be your EASY days (ie. ATM DISPENSER).
A RTL BO is complete because it either CONTINUES its BO or it FBOs. Why not throw the pt3s into the BO/FBO set.
My lesson of the day.
This AHA should have happened in January, but it popped up today, so I will
share it with you.
On 15:05, I drew a RTL from 13:30, thinking this might be a new Pt3 for a new up
channel.
Then I consult Mr. Gau. He said the reds are increasing. i.e. this down move
from 14:30 was not a retrace, but a dominant traverse of a down channel.
I quickly erased the trend line.
Quote from EstebanUno:
Ivo, thanks for the comments.
The dotted lines represent minor point 3 channels, and the solid lines represent the major channels I'm attempting to trade. I use the finer dotted line channels to support trading decisions of the major channels. I've made no attempt to draw tapes for some time, but maybe it's time to try again.
That explanation is very helpful. I'll keep this in mind tomorrow.
But it is the high point of what would be point 3 of a new point 3 down channel, and bar 8 is the high that originates the next bar with red volume just like bar 2. The only difference I see between bar 2 and bar 8 is that volume peaks after 2, but not after 8, where it just increases slightly red on bar 9. Does this mean you won't draw a RT until peak volume has occurred?
Regarding using peak volume points to match gaussians in reference to taped channels, do you steepen channels to match these peak points? Like in the attached?
Esteban
Quote from dkm:
I may have misunderstood Spyder but I thought the RTL BO was an exit signal. Just trying to follow the Forest rules of entry at a pt3.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
what I have so far
Today’s AHA moment.
I was waiting for pt.3 of my blue channel, I thought I had it at 10:32. At the
end of the next bar, the volume and price went up, then PRV and volume dropped
on bar 15 (10:40). I was thinking it’s an FTT and went short. The beginning of
bar 16 PRV was showing even less then 15, but I noticed that the price behaved
strangely. Then it clicked, it wasn’t an FTT, but a flaw, a stall most likely,
so I immediately reversed and caught the move up as it continued after the flaw.
Chart for the morning.
The interesting period IMO was the yellow highlighted area.
First we saw an FTT around 9:45 - 9:50. So we have change. Price breaks RTL and
a new downchannel is formed.
In order for price to continue to go down we need increasing red volume. But
what do we get instead? We do get increasing volume but price not going down.
(look where the bars close all the time and don't let the color of the volume
bars confuse you). If price does not go down on this volume then people are
buying and it can only go up...
A HVS or lateral of some sort would have been on both decreasing black and
decreasing red volume meaning price continue to go down. In this case price was
moving sideways on increasing volume in a down channel.
Here also an FTT is formed right at the moment where we expected it and we
caught it right at the exact moment.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
Chart for the morning.
The interesting period IMO was the yellow highlighted area.
First we saw an FTT around 9:45 - 9:50. So we have change. Price breaks RTL and a new downchannel is formed.
In order for price to continue to go down we need increasing red volume. But what do we get instead? We do get increasing volume but price not going down. (look where the bars close all the time and don't let the color of the volume bars confuse you). If price does not go down on this volume then people are buying and it can only go up...
A HVS or lateral of some sort would have been on both decreasing black and decreasing red volume meaning price continue to go down. In this case price was moving sideways on increasing volume in a down channel.
Here also an FTT is formed right at the moment where we expected it and we caught it right at the exact moment.
regards,
Ivo
Hershey Futures
I am looking for detailed information on the Price - Volume relationship. Can anyone recommend a specific thread?
Re: Hershey Futures
You're on it
Just start at the beginning and there are some links to help out as well.
Quote from guavaman:
I am looking for detailed information on the Price - Volume relationship. Can anyone recommend a specific thread?
Re: Hershey Futures
Man walks into the Tourist Center at Times Square and asks:
"How do you get to New York City?"
Quote from guavaman:
I am looking for detailed information on the Price - Volume relationship. Can anyone recommend a specific thread?
Two low volume reversals
A VERY similar to the earlier example low volume reversal just showed up.
Same question, which direction is hold until change?
Earlier setup is in BLACK, this one in BLUE.
Esteban,
I don't have a problem with the gray dotted channel in this chart. It's in a
larger down channel, coming after/during a non-dom traverse. Bar 9 heads lower
on what appears to be increasing red and the start of a new gaussian. Bar 10
changes all that and it's out the window, but at that point on this chart it
looks reasonable.
I didn't have that channel because my data was different. Bars 2,6 & 8 on my
chart had the same highs, and the YM didn't really support that channel. But
based on what was on your ES chart I would have drawn it in temporarily as well.
Two things that might have given a bit of caution with it. Bar 4 FTT (so we're
anticipating a new point 3 for the up-channel), and the fact that bars 7,8, & 9
were all inside of bar 6.
Just wanted to give a different view.
Regards - EZ
This may be a dumb question but do you pay attention to flaws (bars with very small vol compared to the last) on the YM in addition to the ones we see on the ES?
Quote from EstebanUno:
Very good point. I saw it the same way. But I have to admit that these weak price advancement bars on higher volume can be tricky. Had that bar closed 1 tick lower (lower than the 2 prev bar lows) I would have been thinking r2R.
Today's ES Chart
05-11-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-11-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
My chart for today...
Regards,
Ivo, please understand that I'm not disagreeing with you here. Notice that my
chart also showed FTT and I also held through the area in question. I often see
low vol reversals after FTTs, and was using this example to point this out, and
hopefully to learn where it is that one expects increasing V when it does not
occur on RT BO as expected.
[QUOTE]Quote from ivob:
Mmm. it's really not about 2 ticks higher or lower, it's about the trend and
about PRV. within the bar itself a lot can happen. There can be extreme buying
and then a littlebit of selling and the bar still ends lower. Especially on 5
min bars. Just check PRV + YM + str/sq while the bar is being formed.
Obviously you are working on a much finer resolution level than I am. On the
resolution I was following (Es 5min) I think where the bar closes IS important.
In this case it was a failed BO. 1 or 2 ticks lower it is a trending bar on
increasing V. YM shows much more vol on down than up, BTW. (See attached YM
snippet and red annotation.)
[QUOTE]Quote from ivob:
The next bar, 10:10, had strong price movement on declining volume.
Really? I just remember I saw buying. I recorded it so will check it. The total
volume of this bar may not have been amazing but you have to see the volume in
relation to the length of the bar. There's an FTT and price breaks out and
volume increased after the breakout. All information is there to hold.
I guess this is exactly type of area where I should be looking at YM. I didn't.
In hindsight I did not find it helpful. There was a r2R then rev to black FTT
followed by low volume BO of RT. It's the low volume BO that is not as expected.
I've attached YM for the time in question, with my annotations.
All the best,
Esteban
Hi,
I was trying to organize what I know and my trading strategy for trading at the
Tree level (FTT to BO or FTT).
I don't know if we are qualified with the set of tools available now to really
trade at this level, but if not, please just tell me.
I leave here my conclusion for your critic. It is a set of actions for trying to
focus all time on the Ball :
ENTER at FTT:
IF price is near LTL:
-- Expect "Decreasing NonDom Volume" until RTL
-- EXIT (or REVERSE) if +PRV Dominat (FBO)
-- Expect "Point 2"
-- It should be a Tape FTT from "Point 1"
-- Watch YM
-- Expect YM Tape FTT
-- Expect «Retrace» to "Point 3"
-- Anticipate price area of pnt3: Pnt2 < Pnt3 < Pnt1
-- It should be a Tape FTT from "Point 2"
-- Watch YM
-- Expect YM Tape FTT
-- Expect significantly Low Volume exactly near RTL
-- Expect BO "Increasing old ND Volume" in New Channel
-- EXIT (or REVERSE) if +PRV Dominat (FBO)
-- EXIT on FFT or BO
ELSE IF price is near RTL:
-- Expect "Decreasing ND Volume" until RTL
-- Expect significantly Low Volume exactly near RTL
-- Expect BO "Increasing old ND Volume" in New Channel
-- EXIT (or REVERSE) if Dominat +PRV (FBO)
-- Expect "Point 2"
-- It should be a Tape FTT from "Point 1"
-- Watch YM
-- Expect YM Tape FTT
-- Expect «Retrace» to "Point 3"
-- Anticipate price area of pnt3: Pnt2 < Pnt3 < Pnt1
-- It should be a Tape FTT from "Point 2"
-- Watch YM
-- Expect YM Tape FTT
-- EXIT on FFT or BO
Regards,
Pedro
Sorry, I can't get identation to work.
I attach a doc file with it.
Quote from EstebanUno:
I often see low vol reversals after FTTs, and was using this example to point this out, and hopefully to learn where it is that one expects increasing V when it does not occur on RT BO as expected.
Quote from makosgu:
I want to expand on this so I will draw up a chart from yesterday to make my point. Spyder and I usually have very similar charts. I annotate volume a little differently but we get to the $ame place. The first 15 bars of yesterday should clarify what I mean... However, I have to run out for a moment and pick up my new v6 toy (the 6 is to keep it more green friendly)...
Hey EZZY,
i just saw your post on esignal's forum regarding qchart's problem in displaying
((YM07M -IND) -81)
i too have noticed that the chart wasn't displaying the number that it
should've.
Did you ever figure out a way to fix this problem?
sorry for sidetracking the conversation guys.
ES 11 May - hindsight commentary
Following on from my previous post about sequences, I have done a short
commentary of the key action points on Friday to show what I believe is the
ideal approach at the coarse level. Comments welcome, especially where the real
time experience differed significantly from this hindsight analysis.
My experience in real time is that I over-analyse and look for more information
than is actually required to make money.
===
11 May 2007
Idealised coarse level commentary (hindsight), 5 actions:
09:30 Monitor and annotate from open until you see Pt3 Long at 0945. Annotate YM
also.
09:45 Enter L on seeing Pt3 incr Black PRV. LTL+. Be alert for FTT.
0950: FTT. Reverse. (sufficient data: LTL+ followed by FTT + check YM).
09:55 R2R at TL BO => HOLD.
10:00 Be alert for BO up. TL holds. Double bottom: be alert for reversal.
10:05 FTT. They don't come much clearer than this: low tested 3 times then ticks
up away from FTT. Wait for next bar, if you prefer, to confirm decr Black PRV.
10:10 Reverse after second FTT (wait for Black). BO up on decr V - want to see
B2B so be alert for possible FBO (Pt3 short). Watch YM/INDU carefully - is YM
moving or just the cash? (FBO warning).
10:15 B2B => HOLD
Lateral entered from below. HOLD
10:45 Resume from Pt3 long
10:50 Cont. LTL+. Peak Volume. Be inclined to hold until very clear FTT presents
(allow for momentum).
10:55 HOLD - this is not the FTT you are looking for, it is a hitch, expect
another thrust up after peak volume.
11:00 Another very clear FTT. Wait for next bar to confirm decr Red PRV.
11:05 Decr Red PRV. Reverse.
11:20 R2R on BO as expected. HOLD.
11:50 Consider exit after LTL+ on high volume.
Get lunch and relax. PM session optional, you've made your numbers.
Quote from chiefraven:
Hey EZZY,
i just saw your post on esignal's forum regarding qchart's problem in displaying ((YM07M -IND) -81)
i too have noticed that the chart wasn't displaying the number that it should've.
Did you ever figure out a way to fix this problem?
sorry for sidetracking the conversation guys.
Quote from PointOne:
The ideal entry or reversal is within 3 ticks of a Pt1.
[B]Here is my hindsight coarse analysis.
1. Enter long pt3 on bar 4 at 1502 exit on rtl cross on bar 6 at breakeven.
2. Enter long pt3 on bar 9 at 1502.25 using 15:55 bar from previous day as point
1. Draw in tighter channel line on volatility expansion. Exit on new channel rtl
cross at 1508.
3. Enter short bar 25 1507.25 exit bar39 on rtl cross at breakeven.
4. Sideline.
5. Enter long bar 47 at 1507.25. Exit bar 53 at 1507 on rtl cross. -.25
6. Enter long bar 69 at 1507.25 exit on revised expansion channel cross on bar
76 at 1508.75
7. Enter long bar 77 at 1509.75. Exit on close.
The attached charts shows only the pertinent channels for clarity. Green arrows
are buy and red sell.
PointOne Pontificates
Quote from PepeIlegal:
PointOne, do you think it's possible to enter within 3 ticks of a Pt1 with the tools we have available today ?
I ask you this, because sometimes I'm very confident that one bar is a FTT on that same bar (long up tail with red close for instance), but it is always at the bar close that I 'know' that. Other times I can only 'see' it in the next one or two bars.
Although I 'know' that a bar is a FTT at the close, I can never enter in that moment...i 'need' to wait for some sort of confirmation (and loose the best price of course)
regards,
)
Es chart for Friday. Some real time, some slightly delayed.
Re: ES 11 May - hindsight commentary
Quote from PointOne:
Following on from my previous post about sequences, I have done a short commentary of the key action points on Friday to show what I believe is the ideal approach at the coarse level. Comments welcome, especially where the real time experience differed significantly from this hindsight analysis.
Quote from Bearbelly:
Here is my hindsight coarse analysis.
1. Enter long pt3 on bar 4 at 1502 exit on rtl cross on bar 6 at breakeven.
2. Enter long pt3 on bar 9 at 1502.25 using 15:55 bar from previous day as point 1. Draw in tighter channel line on volatility expansion. Exit on new channel rtl cross at 1508.
3. Enter short bar 25 1507.25 exit bar39 on rtl cross at breakeven.
4. Sideline.
5. Enter long bar 47 at 1507.25. Exit bar 53 at 1507 on rtl cross. -.25
6. Enter long bar 69 at 1507.25 exit on revised expansion channel cross on bar 76 at 1508.75
7. Enter long bar 77 at 1509.75. Exit on close.
The attached charts shows only the pertinent channels for clarity. Green arrows are buy and red sell.
My entries are always over the hi/lo of the previous bar once the point three
or rtl bounce (trade 3) seems established to me. Exits are basically a close
over the rtl but are deliberately a little sloppy as thats the way they usually
work out for me. If the bar is crossing the rtl at a fast pace I just bail. The
entries are conservative and the exits a bit loose. You notice I did not even
include volume. This is how I see the coarsest of the coarse trading, channels
only, but I welcome all criticism. Any day there are decent swings it does ok.
Sideways days are a pain.
edit: As people in the chat room know this is not the way I actually trade. I do
enter on point threes but I seldom wait for a rtl but will exit whenever I think
I see a change in direction coming up. But this chart and log is the way I
understand beginner COARSE trading as per Spyder should be done so if Im wrong
please feel free to correct me.
PRV / STR / SQU
Alrighty then. We have spent the last couple of weeks focusing on insuring a
match exists between the Gaussians and the Channels. By always matching
the correct channels to the correct Gaussian Volume Formation, a trader gains
the ability to 'see' the market as never before. However, we need to place some
emphasis on PRV at this point as well. Mentally calculating PRV every few
seconds or so permits a trader to anticipate continuation or change
by comparing the previous Bar Volume with the current anticipated Volume
based on PRV calculations. Such calculations remain a critical component of
analysis as Resolution Level Action Points (e.g. Forest level: Point Three and
Right Side Trend Line BO). The rest of the time (i.e. Price does NOT
reside at a Resolution Level Action Point), we use PRV as a learning tool
in an effort to 'see' the changes taking place within the market itself, and to
better understand time of change at the next lower (finer resolution)
level down the rabbit hole (We learn about the Trees while sitting in a
Forest).
During the next week (while continuing to match Gaussian Volume formations to
their correct Price Channels), we need to focus on learning (or reinforcing) how
PRV plays such an important role in this methodology. Now, for
educational purposes only, I want everyone to begin
to calculate PRV on every bar and throughout the entire bar.
The process should go something like this: "What kind of Volume do I have now?
based on that number (and color), what Volume do I anticipate at close of
this Bar? How does the anticipated Volume compare to the previous Bar? How
does the anticipated Volume compare to my last FTT bar? How does the anticipated
Volume compare to the Peak Bar in this cycle?
Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Each Bar. Throughout the Entire bar.
Some Things you'll begin to notice:
1. Decreasing Volume of the same color as the previous bar showing a slowing
down of pace and warning of an upcoming change in market direction.
2. Flaws appearing before an FTT.
3. Changing Direction in both Price and Volume within the same Price and
Volume Bars (previously referred to as FT3's in this Journal).
4. Volume starting out as a slow pace or decreasing volume, only to
change gears and show faster pace or increasing volume. Volume starting
out as a fast pace or increasing volume, only to change gears and show
slower pace or decreasing volume. Note what happens next after these two
situation develop.
5. Slowing of Pace (the rate at which volume flows into the Volume Bar) often
provides a warning of upcoming change. Increased pace shows
continuation.
If this task becomes mentally draining, use one of the many PRV Tools posted
throughout this Journal and log the observations made throughout the day.
Use the debriefing time (at End of Day) to reinforce the lessons learned,
and not simply as a means to critique the errors made.
The above exercise should show everyone, what they already have witnessed
many, many times, but for whatever reason, the brain prevented them from
'seeing' correctly: Volume always leads Price. (I'll have more proof
on this when we discuss the DOM next month).
For those individuals struggling to find their way with STR / SQU, I have a few
items for you as well. First, STR / SQU is not an 'indicator' as those familiar
with indicators understand the definition. In other words, it isn't always
saying something to you, nor should anyone expect it to do so. However, at
certain points in time, STR / SQU provides extremely important information. In
fact, looking at STR / SQU at any other time, might show erroneous data, or
worse. Right about now many are saying to themselves, "That's all well and good
Spyder, but you think maybe you could give us a Hint as to when
these certain times might appear?"
Happy to .....
When monitoring the YM and you believe YM has reached a 'critical place' (such
as during End Effects) Glance over at
the STR / SQU for a few moments. What does the STR / SQU say at this point in
time? When the YM approached the left trend line, also
Glance over at the STR / SQU for a few
moments looking for signal of change. In addition, practice the same
technique when the YM approaches its right trend line. Lastly,
Glance over at STR / SQU when The YM
Gaussians Peak or create a Trough.
As one can see by the examples above, we want to look at STR / SQU when the
market approaches a 'decision point' - a place where we would expect to 'see'
change take place. Sometimes, (such as during volatility expansions), we don't
see the anticipated change at these points, we see continuation. At times
of volatility expansion, we may not receive the expect change signal from
the STR / SQU, or it might only signal a temporary one.
Note how the instructions above have the trader already monitoring the YM
before heading over to the STR / SQU. We already know the YM leads the ES at
Points of Change. Just as we don't follow every wiggle and wart on the YM
during periods of continuations on the ES, so too do we avoid monitoring
STR / SQU unless YM Price approaches an area where we should anticipate change.
In other words, we don't say, "The YM leads the ES on every tic."
We say instead, "The YM leads the ES at Points of Change." As such, we don't
think, "STR / SQU leads the YM on every tic. Rather, we think, "STR / SQU
provides an early signal for change at the YM points of change.
Understanding this fine distinction remains of critical importance to everyone's
success. Just as a Forest Level Resolution trader has no need to stay glued
to the ES on every tic (only focusing instead on Point Three's and RTL BO's), so
too must the same lesson apply as we move further down the rabbit hole.
We already know Channels and Gaussians have a fractal nature. The very same
fractal nature applies to the lessons learned as well.
Right Place. Right Data. Right Time = Right side of the market.
I apologize for the lengthy post, and if anyone finds my words confusing in any
way, please let me know. I am more than happy to provide additional
clarification.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: PRV / STR / SQU
Quote from Spydertrader:
... I want everyone to begin to calculate PRV on every bar and throughout the entire bar. ..
Re: Re: PRV / STR / SQU
Quote from ivob:
Are you talking here about PRV for YM or ES? I tend to pay more attention to PRV for YM so far.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
An older post with respect to YM / INDU and Flaws.
- Spydertrader
Re: PRV / STR / SQU
Quote from Spydertrader:
...
I apologize for the lengthy post, and if anyone finds my words confusing in any way, please let me know. I am more than happy to provide additional clarification.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: PRV / STR / SQU
Quote from EstebanUno:
Is this a correct way of distinguishing between CONTINUATION and CHANGE conditions? If what you expect to happen next does not do so, the condition is CHANGE, and one monitors the finer tools. Otherwise CONTINUATION rules and stick to the ES 5 minute.
__________________
Re: Re: ES 11 May - hindsight commentary
Quote from EstebanUno:
1. The 10:30 bar looks like a FTT similar to the one you traded at 10:05 in the opposite direction. Did this bar stike you as a possible FTT? I held through it and had my reasons, but would like your take on it since it looks so similar to your entry.
2. Your 11:20 R2R on BO also looks very similar to the 10:05 entry FTT, and was followed by stalled price. What made you view these 2 events in an opposite manner?
3. I don't see high volume at 11:50. Is your reasoning that the volatility expansion bar closed back within prev bar?
Hoping for some constructive discussion.
Can someone explain what PRV is? I believe that it is actually the Gaussian
formations. If this is the case, do you "calculate" PRV by measuring each bar
within the Gaussian formation (and each bar's conforming to that formation) to
the one preceding it to "anticipate" what is to happen next?
Is PRV different that PV (price and volume)?
Also, can an FTT ever occur prior to a Pt3?
guava inquires
PRV - Pro Rata Volume
Plenty of material on prv already posted.
-Mike
PRV - Pro Rata Volume
Is Pro Rata Volume then the levels on the volume chart. Very Dried Up. Dried Up,
etc?
guavaman - as Avi 8 suggested, try doing a search for PRV - you will find
many links to earlier posts in this journal discussing PRV.
Pro Rated Volume is a simple method of anticipating what the total volume for a
completed 5 min ES vol bar will be, as calculated DURING this 5 min period.
Consider: a five min bar begins now:
- after 30 secs, obtain the current volume reading from your charting pkg and
multiply by ten. (10 X 30 sec. = 5 min, so 10 X current volume = total volume at
end of 5 min) This number is an 'estimate' of what the volume for this bar WILL
BE at the END of its period.
- after 1 min., multiply vol by five (5 X 1 min = 5 min)
-after 2 min, multiply vol by 2.5 (2.5 X 2 min = 5 min)
- and so on: 2.5 min vol X 2, 3 min vol X 5/3, 4 min vol X 5/4
This procedure tells you a couple things:
1. by continually comparing the latest calc. volume number against the total
volume of the prev. 5 min bar, one is able to determine if the gaussian is
forming as anticipated (for ex., in an upchannel, you would expect increasing
black vol as price increases (think continuation)
2. one is able to detect a possible change in sentiment, if the volume of the
bar is deviating from that anticipated (for ex. in an upchannel, price has
reached a new high, but PRV is telling you that volume is decreasing, as
compared to the prev bar - it may be a flaw, or it could be signaling a possible
FTT)
Not sure where you are at in your studies, but it's imperative to start at the
beginning of this journal. and slowly build your comprehension by reading, and
then reading some more Good
luck ...
Re: Re: Re: PRV / STR / SQU
Quote from Spydertrader:
Actually, the process begins a step or two before you arrive at what you expect to have happen.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Today's ES Chart
05-14-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-14-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: PRV / STR / SQU
My chart for today. Constructive criticism is invited.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
ES chart for today, mostly realtime. I was monitoring YM during conditions I interpreted as CHANGE, which seemed to be almost all the time. More on that later.
Spyder - I still often become confused when annotating the Gaussians. When
comparing our charts for today, I found a couple of instances where I varied,
and sure enough, that was at times of my losing the trail
I wish I knew how to include a snip of your chart within this text, but I don't,
so will just have to 'word' it out:
14:00 bar - termination of /R (I have that also)
14:10 bar - termination of \B (me too)
Here's where I lost it.
14:15 bar - price reaches LOD here, so I draw a /R to the top of this vol bar,
and this leads me to think that we're still in dominant down channel.
Price then starts heading up, but on decreasing black, so I still think we're
dominant down. Hmm, I now see the problem. You're 14:20 and 14:25 bars both
exhibit black volume greater than the 14:15 bar, whereas on my chart, both of
these bars show lower volume.
I guess there is nothing one can do about such anomalies, other than change data
providers, huh?
For the record, my IB volume is as follows:
14:15 - 27,016
14:20 - 23,923
14:25 - 16,529
Sorry for all this thinking out loud - argh! As if things aren't difficult
enough. When did ya say that charting pkg would be ready ?
I was monitoring ES 5min today with emphasis on when a CHANGE condition was
manifest, meaning I should consult finer tools, which for me means YM 2min.
After a few hours, I came to the conclusion that CHANGE is the rule, not the
exception, contrary to my idea of monitoring for change/continuation.
Here's what I observed.
1. Dominant traverses of trends are obvious candidates for continuation, but PRV
must be increasing along with price moving in the direction of the dominant,
which limits this condition to only a few bars a day. I found 3 instances for a
total of 4 bars when this condition was in effect today, and enclosed them in
black ellipses in the attached chart.
2. Non-dominant traverses, following FTTs (or not). Continuation with decreasing
prv and price moving in direction of retrace. However if one is looking for a
point 3, decreasing prv could mean CHANGE back to dominant, so I don't know if
this even qualifies as a CONTINUATION situation. I guess it does as long as
price trending with the retrace. But each bar usually has intra-bar periods
where it is not trending, and CHANGE is surely called for during those times. I
marked the 3 instances of this condition in pink.
3. Flaws and laterals. Continuation on continued low PRV and price continuing to
move laterally. If one waits for both these conditions to end before considering
CHANGE, then one is using the finer tools for confirmation rather than
anticipation. Price boundaries are not easy to define. It felt like these areas
were more changelike than continuationlike, so I didn't mark these on the chart.
THE GOOD: Watching YM kept my entries and exits during the choppy sections from
losing much.
THE BAD: It felt like I was trading ES almost exclusively from YM 2min chart,
which was faster paced than I prefer, and not what I thought we should be doing.
Is my perspective wrong? Were you able to watch ES 5min most of the time, with
only occasional forays into the finer resolutions?
Just a quick comment Esteban before I go back to sleep :-)
You mention bars where you feel continuation was in force. Also you
mention candidates for continuation and I don't know if this even
qualifies as a CONTINUATION situation.
All this makes me think you are looking for continuation :-) and this is the
wrong point of view.
Using this method there is always continuation unless there is change.
Continuation or "hold" is always in force. If a bar is not clear, you have
continuation and we just continue to monitor. We look for change.
We started with last day's carryover channel and where price opens today. Today
the market opened at the same price as where it ended yesterday and nothing
happened overnight = continuation. My carryover channel was an up channel so the
bias was up until we got this FTT about 15 minutes into the opening = change
(Spyder marked it as point 1). After that -> HVS = hold assuming you were short.
etc.
If you think you missed an FTT get out at RTL or at pt3 (reverse)
Anyway. Anyone pls correct me if I'm wrong but the point is we don't look for
confirmation of continuation. We look for change. If there is no clear
signal of change then there is continuation.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from EstebanUno:
I was monitoring ES 5min today with emphasis on when a CHANGE condition was manifest, meaning I should consult finer tools, which for me means YM 2min. After a few hours, I came to the conclusion that CHANGE is the rule, not the exception, contrary to my idea of monitoring for change/continuation.
Here's what I observed.
1. Dominant traverses of trends are obvious candidates for continuation, but PRV must be increasing along with price moving in the direction of the dominant, which limits this condition to only a few bars a day. I found 3 instances for a total of 4 bars when this condition was in effect today, and enclosed them in black ellipses in the attached chart.
2. Non-dominant traverses, following FTTs (or not). Continuation with decreasing prv and price moving in direction of retrace. However if one is looking for a point 3, decreasing prv could mean CHANGE back to dominant, so I don't know if this even qualifies as a CONTINUATION situation. I guess it does as long as price trending with the retrace. But each bar usually has intra-bar periods where it is not trending, and CHANGE is surely called for during those times. I marked the 3 instances of this condition in pink.
3. Flaws and laterals. Continuation on continued low PRV and price continuing to move laterally. If one waits for both these conditions to end before considering CHANGE, then one is using the finer tools for confirmation rather than anticipation. Price boundaries are not easy to define. It felt like these areas were more changelike than continuationlike, so I didn't mark these on the chart.
THE GOOD: Watching YM kept my entries and exits during the choppy sections from losing much.
THE BAD: It felt like I was trading ES almost exclusively from YM 2min chart, which was faster paced than I prefer, and not what I thought we should be doing.
Is my perspective wrong? Were you able to watch ES 5min most of the time, with only occasional forays into the finer resolutions?
Quote from EstebanUno:
...
THE BAD: It felt like I was trading ES almost exclusively from YM 2min chart, which was faster paced than I prefer, and not what I thought we should be doing.
Is my perspective wrong? Were you able to watch ES 5min most of the time, with only occasional forays into the finer resolutions?
fractal basics
Quote from EstebanUno:
Is my perspective wrong? Were you able to watch ES 5min most of the time, with only occasional forays into the finer resolutions?
Quote from EstebanUno:
..
Is my perspective wrong? Were you able to watch ES 5min most of the time, with only occasional forays into the finer resolutions?
Thanks for the replies Ivo, PointOne, nkhoi.
Quote from PointOne:
Your chart tells me that you do not understand what continuation means in this context.
You have to be very clear which fractal you are on. Price is always changing but in the context of the channels price forms it is continuing. You only take action on change (hold is not an action). You hold while the dominant signal being carried in the channel continues.
Quote from nkhoi:
to rephase, you watch ES and when you find yourself anticipate B2B, R2R you glance at YM for confirmation
Quote from ivob:
...
You mention bars where you feel continuation was in force. Also you mention candidates for continuation and I don't know if this even qualifies as a CONTINUATION situation.
All this makes me think you are looking for continuation :-) and this is the wrong point of view.
Quote from ivob:
...
Anyway. Anyone pls correct me if I'm wrong but the point is we don't look for confirmation of continuation. We look for change. If there is no clear signal of change then there is continuation.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Actually, the process begins a step or two before you arrive at what you expect to have happen. The process begins with the context - a channel - and understanding how Price moves within this trend in conjunction with Volume. When the data begins to change (meaning, pace slows, but has not turned around in the opposite direction), one moves to additional tools to 'see' this change take place before it fully manifests itself on the 5 minute ES Chart.
...
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
Just as we now know to go over and glance at the STR / SQU during certain time periods, so too does the ES and YM share the same fractal nature of 'Time Critical' signals. Everything begins on the ES, and for continuation we need not look any further. Change, on the other hand, may signal from many sources. However, if one can learn to 'see' Pace changes in real time using ES Volume, monitoring becomes an exercise in waiting for a 'green light' to signal where to go and look next.
Yes, it really is that simple.
- Spydertrader
Quote from mephistoII:
I guess there is nothing one can do about such anomalies, other than change data providers, huh?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Now, for educational purposes only, ......
Quote from Spydertrader:
Some Things you'll begin to notice:
1. Decreasing Volume of the same color as the previous bar showing a slowing down of pace and warning of an upcoming change in market direction.
2. Flaws appearing before an FTT.
3. Changing Direction in both Price and Volume within the same Price and Volume Bars (previously referred to as FT3's in this Journal).
4. Volume starting out as a slow pace or decreasing volume, only to change gears and show faster pace or increasing volume. Volume starting out as a fast pace or increasing volume, only to change gears and show slower pace or decreasing volume. Note what happens next after these two situation develop.
5. Slowing of Pace (the rate at which volume flows into the Volume Bar) often provides a warning of upcoming change. Increased pace shows continuation.
__________________
quotetracker users rejoice
FYI, I think I just got the Medved brothers to code an update for
Quotetracker that will add a sort of bouncing-ball-like indicator that
superimposes an outline of the PRV over the active volume bar. Will update when
I know more!
PS-- summary v3 will arrive soon...
Re: quotetracker users rejoice
Quote from Pr0crast:
FYI, I think I just got the Medved brothers to code an update for Quotetracker that will add a sort of bouncing-ball-like indicator that superimposes an outline of the PRV over the active volume bar. Will update when I know more!
PS-- summary v3 will arrive soon...
Quote from Spydertrader:
Perhaps, I wasn't as clear as I believed.
1. First, we observe the tool.
2. Then, we use the tool for decision-making.
)
My chart for yesterday
Some was hindsight
Regards,
DAX gaussians
I think Spyder invited us to post examples of gaussians and channels. Here's
the first couple of hours of today's DAX:
If you get out your crayolas and add up the points remember to multiply the
total by $30 to get an idea.
I believe this is a matter of focus...
It is very easy for one to focus on bar to bar action and try to use the
existing tools and knowledge to trade it. This has happened to me
The problem is, the tools we have now aren't suitable to trade every trasverse
of every channel (this is SCT in full mode).
The tools we have now are:
-> ES
-----> Price: Formations: double Tops, double Bottoms, penants, etc.
-----> Volume: PRV and Gaussians
-----> YM
---------> Price: Formations: double Tops, double Bottoms, penants, etc.
---------> Volume: PRV and Gaussians
-----> YM Premium
After some "low profits/breakeven days" I asked myself what was wrong, I realize
that I weren't following the rules propely for the current level we are.
This turns the focus to "Channels" and price inside the "Channels".
You enter at FTT (or pnt3) and this should create a new channel for price. Then
you monitor:
CONTINUATION:
- Price continues INSIDE the new channel;
CHANGE:
- New FTT = EXIT / REVERSE
- FBO of the old channel = EXIT
- BO of the old channel = Hold (continuation of new channel)
Personally I add also an "emergency exit" at BO of the new channel, if I miss
the FTT.
The PRV, YM, Premium, should only be used to help antecipate "Change" in moments
of possible change (FTT, FBO, BO)
This is how I understand what Spyder told us so far...
Best Regards,
what I have so far
I really really find Spyder's methods very useful as I use the
continuation/change notion with my enters and exits(long and short). I follow
price and volume. I do use some indicators only as confirmation. If volume is
going red coming from some high green, I know the price will start to correct
itself and fall down a bit. For how long, I don't know, but I'd say until there
is a change in sentiment(red to green)
FTT= Price or trend fails to continue in current direction.
FBO=Price fails to break out.
BO= Price breaks out
CCC=Isn't that when price just ranges for a while? Indecision?
I'd like to learn more about Jokan windows and gaussians. Not quite sure what
those are. I also need to make sure I'm drawing in correct channel lines.
Other than that, I think I finally "get it".
PS: A lot of patience is required for these methods or else you'll turn out like
every other failing day trader who jumps in positions too impulsively.
Quote from Pepe:
My chart for yesterday
Some was hindsight
Regards,
Quote from Bullz n Bearz:
..
CCC=Isn't that when price just ranges for a while? Indecision?
I'd like to learn more about Jokan windows and gaussians. Not quite sure what those are. I also need to make sure I'm drawing in correct channel lines.
Other than that, I think I finally "get it".
PS: A lot of patience is required for these methods or else you'll turn out like every other failing day trader who jumps in positions too impulsively.
chart for this morning.
regards,
Ivo
Clarification
Quote from Bullz n Bearz:
Other than that, I think I finally "get it".
Quote from nkhoi:
Jokari windows not used for future. The whole thread is about the gau.
__________________
Today's ES chart. With and without annotations, since it is so busy.
Without annotations. Somehow I couldn't attach both to same message.
Today's ES
Today's ES Chart
05-15-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-15-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's Chart
5 Min ES
Hi,
Today's chart...
I think "Premium" started to talk to me... he called me "Daddy" for the first
time.... hopping for a full sentence next time
At 12:45 FTT (my 19:45) - Premium gets +5 and a few seconds later YM starts to
reverse.... I took ES at 1506.00 (four ticks from the bar's lowest
), my best entry on a FTT until
now.
Regards,
Quote from PointOne:
No, no, no! The CO approach is to observe the tool for 2 minutes, use it for a day or less, decide it doesn't work, tweak it and report back your improvements, then get bored and start a flame war about Jack. Really Spyder have you learnt nothing from ET?
(Just feeling a little sympathetic towards mephisto over here!
Wow... that was a lot of postings to read up on after taking a 2 month break
for a move.
Great stuff folks. I hope to be contributing regularly going forward.
3600 postings in the journal (90 pages with 40 postings per page)
Here is an example of a an FTT + stretch from yesterday followed by
confirming PRV. It's a small avi file.
First we had the FTT. (I marked it on my ES chart as point 2 but this should be
a point 1).
After that this FTT is confirmed by a strong stretch (two in a row, no contrary
signals).
A little later we get +PRV as indicated in the movie, confirming the move up.
I think this is the "domino effect" that Spyder was talking about regarding what
to expect after we experience "change"
FTT + Stretch example followed by PRV
regards,
Ivo
Hi Ivo,
yes, thank you for the movie.. it's very instructive.
I notice the increasing pace in PRV AFTER the stretch... this is what Spyder
asked us to watch... pace changes in PRV and how this affects price.
This makes sense, when "smart money" enters the market PRV will increase pace...
Continue the great work
Regards,
Pedro
Quote from Pepe:
Hi Ivo,
yes, thank you for the movie.. it's very instructive.
I notice the increasing pace in PRV AFTER the stretch... this is what Spyder asked us to watch... pace changes in PRV and how this affects price.
This makes sense, when "smart money" enters the market PRV will increase pace...
Continue the great work
Regards,
Pedro
Thanks Ivo for the synopsis.
Here's from my collection of treasures.
Quote from ivob:
Stretch/Squeeze is a "finer" tool than PRV. A way to get closer to the actual FTT tick. So indeed I think ideally we see +PRV after the stretch/squeeze signal. +PRV (meaning increasing volume in the direction of the new channel) is just more people following the smart money.
.....
regards,
Ivo
I have a question about drawing channels on the YM.
I've been drawing ES and YM channels the way they're suppose to be. I'm finding
myself drawing the YM channels more in-depth like the ES. Is that bad? Do you
not do it because you feel it's irrelevant while taking up too much time? I
don't know, i guess from drawing so many channels. I can do them rather quickly
and finding myself drawing the YM channels like the ES.
I just wanted to know if it's a bad thing that I'm doing that?
What I have so far
Quote from Churn2Learn:
I have a question about drawing channels on the YM.
I've been drawing ES and YM channels the way they're suppose to be. I'm finding myself drawing the YM channels more in-depth like the ES. Is that bad? Do you not do it because you feel it's irrelevant while taking up too much time? I don't know, i guess from drawing so many channels. I can do them rather quickly and finding myself drawing the YM channels like the ES.
I just wanted to know if it's a bad thing that I'm doing that?
Beginner question: Should I consider redrawing the marked downtrend line
after what looks to me to be a FBO and use that FBO point as a new/adjusted
point three? (And also make similar adjustments to the right channel lines for
that channel.)
Thank you,
- David I
[edit: Please ignore the two green lines in my attachment. They clearly were a
mistake and shouldn't be there at all.]
Quote from Tums:
You can always look at Spyder's chart as example.
How does yours compare?
Quote from David I:
Beginner question: Should I consider redrawing the marked downtrend line after what looks to me to be a FBO and use that FBO point as a new/adjusted point three? (And also make similar adjustments to the right channel lines for that channel.)
Thank you,
- David I
ES Chart
__________________
chart for the morning.
I was clueless in the beginning. We got this big black 10:10 bar and I thought
we were going up.
Did catch the ride from 1507 to 1511 though.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from Churn2Learn:
Yea I compare it to his and it's usually 95% accurate. I usually get more indepth and add smaller channels within channels that he doesn't put. That's what I'm asking about. Is that ok to do or just stick to a broad outlook.
Quote from Tums:
you have to ask yourself: is this tool/signal/indicator/line assisting me to make a trading decision ?
Re: quotetracker users rejoice
Quote from Pr0crast:
FYI, I think I just got the Medved brothers to code an update for Quotetracker that will add a sort of bouncing-ball-like indicator that superimposes an outline of the PRV over the active volume bar. Will update when I know more!
PS-- summary v3 will arrive soon...
Quote from Mike Medved:
Please take the file http://download.quotetracker.com/download/stocks.zip unzip it into your QuoteTracker directory to replace the STOCKS.EXE there (make sure you're not running QT at the time), then run it.
The Volume and Volume+EMA will now have a checkbox in parameters for projection. Projected volume only works with normal and tick charts, of course, since it is meaningless for others.
Today's chart...
Regards,
good gaussian read today.
Here my complete chart for the day.
The yellow area confused me very much. I was long since the FTT right before
that. YM showed at that moment a very clear FTT with a lot of red volume. On ES
it looked like FBO.....
Is it because we never got a strong squeeze value during this period?
edit: On my ES chart yellow area is wrong, should be two bars further.
Nevertheless same story. YM seemed to show the mother of all FTT's. Although on
ES that was not such a special bar the YM leads ES so I thought but in this case
I wish I hadn't looked at YM.
regards,
Ivo
Es chart for today. Missed last run up. No realtime trading decisions today. Annotations show problem areas.
Re: ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
today's es
today's es
Re: Re: ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
First blue FTT. Why is it marked as FTT? Price touched LTL..
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
First blue FTT. Why is it marked as FTT? Price touched LTL..
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: Re: ES Chart
Quote from Avi 8:
Ivo,
On my chart I show it as a FTT also, missed the LTL by one tick it looks to me.
-Mike
Quote from David I:
Beginner question: Should I consider redrawing the marked downtrend line after what looks to me to be a FBO and use that FBO point as a new/adjusted point three?
- David I
Quote from bi9foot:
I would just make a comment about seeing +PRV after an FTT. After an FTT, we start the non-dominant traverse which should be on decreasing volume, so we should expecting volume about the same as the last bar of the dominant traverse or less, not significantly higher volume.
The increasing volume after a FTT comes
1) after a BO of the RTL with the begining of the new dominant channel.
2) we have a FBO and the prev. dominant channel resumes.
So I am not sure what you mean by seeing +PRV.
If we are that the RTL, then I am expecting +PRV after the str/sq.
Re: Re: quotetracker users rejoice
Quote from Pr0crast:
[B]Alright folks, here it is...
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Today's ES
I plan to spend the rest of the week traveling, and may not have an
opportunity to post my charts each day.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's ES Chart
Thanks Pr0crast! I sincerely appreciate your efforts that resulted in the QuoteTracker PRV upgrade...
Detecting FTTs automatically
Quote from Spydertrader:
vol 3 posted. links to the old ones too for those who missed them. vol 4
coming by end of may.
spyfut.vol1.zip
spyfut.vol2.zip
spyfut.vol3.zip
Re: Detecting FTTs automatically
If I may:
In my opinion it's not that important if "it touched". This method works even
when you drew one channel incorrectly, and when you mislabeled an FTT, FBO, BO,
flaw. It self-corrects almost immediately.
On the other hand, there is always some noise in the markets, both in price and
volume, and the lines we draw and the annotations we make have a certain degree
of flexibility (or incertitude, if you like).
You have to always keep in mind the bigger picture.
Quote from PointOne:
Many people have asked if the 10:10 bar was an FTT.
On my chart it looks like it touched if I use thick lines, not if I use thin. On others it looks like it missed by a tick. Who is right?
Looking at the strict geometry:
...
Re: Re: Detecting FTTs automatically
Quote from cnms2:
You have to always keep in mind the bigger picture.
Quote from Pr0crast:
vol 3 posted. links to the old ones too for those who missed them. vol 4 coming by end of may.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Re: Re: Detecting FTTs automatically
Quote from cnms2:
If I may:
In my opinion it's not that important if "it touched". This method works even when you drew one channel incorrectly, and when you mislabeled an FTT, FBO, BO, flaw. It self-corrects almost immediately.
On the other hand, there is always some noise in the markets, both in price and volume, and the lines we draw and the annotations we make have a certain degree of flexibility (or incertitude, if you like).
You have to always keep in mind the bigger picture.
Thanks
Quote from Pr0crast:
vol 3 posted. links to the old ones too for those who missed them. vol 4 coming by end of may.
spyfut.vol1.zip
spyfut.vol2.zip
spyfut.vol3.zip
Chart for the morning.
Although tight range I traded very well. Caught all FTT's etc. Just beginning I
was a little confused but then it was easy. We were going lateral first few bars
and we came from up (yesterday) so first uptape broken down was the signal (pt3)
Even pushing the hold button worked out although could be better.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
Chart for the morning.
Although tight range I traded very well. Caught all FTT's etc. Just beginning I was a little confused but then it was easy. We were going lateral first few bars and we came from up (yesterday) so first uptape broken down was the signal (pt3)
Even pushing the hold button worked out although could be better.
regards,
Ivo
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Today's ES
05-17-2007 ES Chart
Fun Day. Now, It's time for some Bass Fishin' with Excav8tr & T&T.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's chart...
Regards,
Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
05-17-2007 ES Chart
Fun Day. Now, It's time for some Bass Fishin' with Excav8tr & T&T.
- Spydertrader
):
Today's ES. Quite a choppy day. It took some thinking to keep track of the gaus.
Family obligations kept me away until 2:30p.
A good day nonetheless.
The PRV bar really helped. Thanks Pr0.
Re: Today's ES
A quick question about the light blue carryover channel you have. I thought
about drawing it in using the same points from Wed you have, but the 16:00 bar
from Wed appears to throw the gaussians off for the whole channel (ie Red vol is
the greatest over the whole up channel). Would you mind quickly explaining this
as this caused me some confusion. Thanks!
Quote from Spydertrader:
05-17-2007 ES Chart
Fun Day. Now, It's time for some Bass Fishin' with Excav8tr & T&T.
- Spydertrader
TODAY'S CHART
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Would you mind quickly explaining this as this caused me some confusion. Thanks!
__________________
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Pepe:
I will need 3 hours to fully understand this chart
__________________
Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
05-17-2007 ES Chart
Fun Day. Now, It's time for some Bass Fishin' with Excav8tr & T&T.
- Spydertrader
.
Clearly, I went a little further down the rabbit hole than normal
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Pr0crast:
I and many others have concluded that you are insane
-Pr0crast
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Pr0crast:
Is this a laid-back exercise for you, or does a day with that many actions stress you out? Even a little?
__________________
Quote from pct:
TODAY'S CHART
__________________
Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
05-17-2007 ES Chart
Fun Day. Now, It's time for some Bass Fishin' with Excav8tr & T&T.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Traderdave72
http://fxspeedscalper.com/tradingblog/
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
... I now even find myself (on occasion) telling the market to, "hurry the hell up and move because we both know your going down!"
Quote from Spydertrader:
..Now, if Jerry can just fix Quotetracker to chart STR / SQU, I'll dump Qcharts tomorrow.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from ivob:
Does this situation occur while being in the market or when you are waiting to get in?
Quote from ivob:
Spyder what % of the day do you have a position open? Isn't it risky to go out for a smoke while being in the market?
__________________
example str-sq action
Hello,
I have created a small video with comments of an example where we had stretch
and squeeze within the same bar and we took action. It is an 1.69 MB avi file
and concerns yesterday's market.
The squeeze actually occured when YM was heading for a point 3 up.
The file can be downloaded
here.
Pls feel free to comment etc.
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
When I am already in the market short awaiting the move down. You know the time. Somewhere in the middle of the previous bar, the market went into DU. I don't mean the bar closes below 2500 contracts traded. I mean everything just sorta' pauses for a second or three as Price finds itself at the right trend line. PRV at this moment says DU, but we still have a few minutes to go before bar closes. The YM begins to creep a little lower and you can almost feel the market wanting to move. It's the same quiet pause one feels just before a powerful summer storm rolls into the area. You know what comes next, you just have to wait for it to arrive.
...
- Spydertrader
__________________
Rod
"My destiny will NOT be denied. His will be done." - Patton
Chart for the morning.
No surprises. Volume dropped early.
Ivo
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
P.S. Nicely done with the lobbying efforts for the Quotetracker PRV Add-on Tool. I watched it work yesterday for the ES and YM in real time. I think many will find the tool very helpful. Thanks also to Jerry Medved and his crew for responding to the request. Now, if Jerry can just fix Quotetracker to chart STR / SQU, I'll dump Qcharts tomorrow.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from ivob:
Agreed here. I dumped QT for Ensign because it didn't have str/sq. I would switch back to it if it could display that especially now that it does have the feature to snap trendlines to the high and low of bars.
regards,
Ivo [/B]
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from DojiBB:
QT also needs notation tools which is why I currently do not use it.
Today's ES
Another Fun Day. Even managed to catch a few Largemouth during the CCC
section. Time to head off to
Streetside with Excav8Tr, T&T and Sunshine.
Enjoy the weekend everyone.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's chart...
(to convert to eastern time subtract 5 hours)
Today's ES. Have a great weekend everybody!
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Pr0crast:
Err.... notation tools? You mean annotation tools, like to draw lines, shapes, and text?
v4 posted
vol 4 posted. links to the old ones too for those who missed them.
spyfut.vol1.zip
spyfut.vol2.zip
spyfut.vol3.zip
spyfut.vol4.zip
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Pr0crast:
I'll give asking them a shot later this summer... in the meanwhile, anyone who wants the STR/SQU feature in QT, SAY SO if you haven't already. I think the Medveds can be swayed by a perception of demand. In my next lobbying effort if I have posts to link to as evidence of this, it might help.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from DojiBB:
Yes - I was thinking notes. Note taking is what I meant (ftt, 1,2,3, etc,,,).
I have been corrected - QT does handle text notes. Maybe I will give it a try now.
I took the morning off today to use Jerry's new indicator real time in
Quotetracker. WOW, having that visual markedly improved my performance.
I also dropped Jerry a thank you note for his efforts.
Yes, a Quotetracker [YM-INDU-user set constant] indicator would be the cat's
meow!
Then a DOM with stalagtites and were done!~
Thanks pr0crast too!
.
QT improvements
Quote from bigmoose:
I took the morning off today to use Jerry's new indicator real time in Quotetracker. WOW, having that visual markedly improved my performance.
I also dropped Jerry a thank you note for his efforts.
Yes, a Quotetracker [YM-INDU-user set constant] indicator would be the cat's meow!
Then a DOM with stalagtites and were done!~
Thanks pr0crast too!
.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from AllenW:
I would be happy with just being able to track the spread on the Quote page---I have asked them about it twice now and they say it's coming in future updates.
And a BIG thanks
to Pro for the work on getting PRV calcs on the charts!!
Re: QT improvements
Quote from PointOne:
Yes, I noticed an improvement in my EQ (calm) having the PRV on the chart itself.
Re: Re: QT improvements
Quote from vjr:
Ok, I'm set up. Does it count in real time? Does it give a percent value of the increase over previous bar? I'm to excited to wait until Monday to see it work.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from excav8tr:
This can be done....
1 set up a separate portfolio call it strech squeeze
2 Enter in symbol for YM then symbol for INDU
3 in the quantity field enter a 1 for YM (Long position)
4 in the quantity field enter a -1 for INDU (Short position)
5 save the portfolio
6 once you bring up that quote page the difference between the two will show as the Total.
voila you now have the numerical offset real time and showing.... you can chart it by right clicking the number and select intraday chart..... but the problem is it charts the dollar value of the two positions.......ughhh!!!!! So close but yet so far away
Regards,
Excav8tr
Hey, anyway I can use Spyder's formula with Tradestation 8? I know how to color the volume and such but it seems like I'm missing out on some other things like PRV and stuff. Help!
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from excav8tr:
This can be done....
1 set up a separate portfolio call it strech squeeze
2 Enter in symbol for YM then symbol for INDU
3 in the quantity field enter a 1 for YM (Long position)
4 in the quantity field enter a -1 for INDU (Short position)
5 save the portfolio
6 once you bring up that quote page the difference between the two will show as the Total.
voila you now have the numerical offset real time and showing.... you can chart it by right clicking the number and select intraday chart..... but the problem is it charts the dollar value of the two positions.......ughhh!!!!! So close but yet so far away
Regards,
Excav8tr
QT
I got to use the QT prv function Fri. and it works perfectly. Nice job Eric
on getting that added, really is a nice feature. ES and YM prv both in the right
place to watch it. Looks like QT will now standard equipment.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Pr0crast:
What do you mean when you say it charts the dollar value of the two positions?
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Pr0crast:
I'll give asking them a shot later this summer... in the meanwhile, anyone who wants the STR/SQU feature in QT, SAY SO if you haven't already. I think the Medveds can be swayed by a perception of demand. In my next lobbying effort if I have posts to link to as evidence of this, it might help.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from ivob:
Tell them they have another paying subscriber for sure if str/sq is added to QT :-)
Or in other words: the feature of graphing the difference between two symbols. Not a ridiculous feature to have I think for serious charting software.
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from excav8tr:
This can be done....
1 set up a separate portfolio call it strech squeeze
2 Enter in symbol for YM then symbol for INDU
3 in the quantity field enter a 1 for YM (Long position)
4 in the quantity field enter a -1 for INDU (Short position)
5 save the portfolio
6 once you bring up that quote page the difference between the two will show as the Total.
voila you now have the numerical offset real time and showing.... you can chart it by right clicking the number and select intraday chart..... but the problem is it charts the dollar value of the two positions.......ughhh!!!!! So close but yet so far away
Regards,
Excav8tr
Hello,
I was reviewing pr0crast's compilation (thank you!) and came across the
following:
-----
Quote from ivob:
Can conclusions be drawn from str/sq values over several bars or should we just
look at the "now"? So is there something like a trend in str/sq?
Quote from Spydertrader:
I look at str / squ only in the now.
-----
Although str/sq should be looked at in the now I am increasingly noticing that
str/sq not giving any signal becomes a signal on itself if other
indicators point in the same direction. (or I should say: Do not point in the
other direction)
I especially looked for this after Jack mentioned it in one of his postings
(which Spyder was referring to recently) that "smart money not leading" was an
important signal of upcoming change.
For example we are in an up channel. We have been going up for a while but
during the last few strong moves there was no stretch whatsoever. Not at all I
mean. In my opinion (based on recent observations) this is a moment when we can
start looking for change (FTT) or maybe even we just had one..
str/sq gives so many signals. It is an important thing when it does not give
signals on moments when you expected it. I have seen various examples of
breakouts where str/sq was not giving any signal at all. These breakouts failed.
I will record some of this just to show.
pls feel free to add any comments.
Regards,
ivo
friday's chart
here's another visual for those who haven't fully embraced the whole
"CHANNELS MUST SYNCH WITH GAUSSIANS" idea.
ivo,
Thanks for the videos, I really enjoy them.
STR/SQU is working in QT. Tutorial attached as pdf.
Re: Re: Re: QT improvements
Quote from Pr0crast:
I already posted a picture.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...622#post1469622
Quote from Pr0crast:
STR/SQU is working in QT. Tutorial attached as pdf.
1) make sure QT is off when you unzip the file
2) when you unzip it to the right place, your computer will ask you if you want
to overwrite the old file.
Quote from vjr:
sorry missed that post. i thought i was ready to go for this morning but can't seem to get the "checkbox in parameters for projections" I think I upzipped the file correctly. I posted my chart (2min YM) I was wondering if anyone had any suggestions to get this PRV tool running?
thanks
P1- how did you get the graph to zero out at NEUT? or is it just coincidence in your pic...
Quote from Pr0crast:
P1- how did you get the graph to zero out at NEUT? or is it just coincidence in your pic...
Quote from PointOne:
To chart the portfolio value (not value change) go to
Options>Edit Prefs>Misc
then tab down
select $ Value in the Portfolio charts menu
et voila.
you guys are amazing !
chart for the morning.
regards,
Ivo
better than qcharts str/squ too since you can see historical movement (i.e.
was there a STR 20 sec ago?)
nice work again everyone who helped figuring this out.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Brilliant.
Tutorial updated.
__________________
Take care and live well
Lightbody
Today's ES
05-21-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-21-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
My ES chart for the day (5/21/07)...
I've annotated (using thick translucent lines) increasing black gaussian peaks
to 12:10, followed by decreasing black peaks to 14:50 (although the 14:50 peak
was increasing when compared to "lunch"). Then increasing red peaks to 15:25
followed by decreasing red peaks.
spooz
a good day !
Today's ES chart. I thought the gaussians were pretty straightforward today.
I continue to struggle with YM. It is ALWAYS signalling FTT, and I still don't
have the hang of filtering when to look.
Still, a very good day for me.
TODAY'S CHART
ES 5 MIN (minus the indicators)
I was a little confused in the period from 1:45--2:25. Initially I thought that
this was a retrace. It appeared that price was increasing but black volume was
not. Then on the 2:25 bar red volume increased. So I thought that this was the
beginning of a move down. It soon became clear what was happening.
The rest of the day was smooth other than some problems with my data feed near
the end of the day
something I've started doing, and it has been helping me thus far,
is that I actually take off volume from the screen
I then look at cumulative volume and then plot the readings every 5 mins on
paper.
looks kind of like this, (not based on actual data)
130k @ 9:35
150k @ 9:40.............20k (the diff. between :35 and :40)
165k @ 9:45...........15k
etc.
I'm also watching the "speed" of volume accumulation intra-bar.
I don't know... doing it this way has seemed to open some doors in my mind. (I'm
only doing coarse work here, meaning ES and no YM.)
just thought I'd post for whatever it's worth.
__________________
This world is not my home, i'm just passing through.
Quote from Dantheman:
something I've started doing, and it has been helping me thus far, is that I actually take off volume from the screen
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
While I don't want to dissuade you from your current chosen path of study (especially with respect to Volume 'pace'), might I suggest you take a look at the Quotetracker PRV Tool. Having the PRV calculations appear within the Volume bar on the chart may provide the insights you need to turn the corner.
Of course, your mileage may vary.
- Spydertrader
Just wanted to share this eurodollar trade for almost 20 pips.
regards,
Ivo
Yesterday's Chart....
Regards,
Spyder
I appreciate your time and effort on this journal.
What data feed do you use for Quotetracker?
Quotetracker Data feed
Quote from wwight:
What data feed do you use for Quotetracker?
__________________
Spyder, your journal has truly helped me big time. Thanks man.
QCharts (YM-INDU) issue
Anyone else having issues plotting the STR/SQ in QCharts?
I am running into a problem with QCharts and the STR/SQ chart. The chart seems
to be plotting values that are completely off.
I decided to back off a bit and take the offset out of the picture and just plot
the difference between the YM and INDU. I can then compare chart to the values
being calculated at real time in another quote sheet.
For some reason the chart is off as shown in the attached graphic.
Anyone know how to fix this?
TIA
just switch the session to the opposite of the current session will fix the problem.
Quote from nkhoi:
just switch the session to the opposite of the current session will fix the problem.
Where is the "All Sessions" check box, I've never been able to find it. My STR/SQ always shows in the 30's
All Sessions
Quote from bdolnik:
Where is the "All Sessions" check box, I've never been able to find it. My STR/SQ always shows in the 30's
__________________
Re: All Sessions
Quote from Spydertrader:
Top Left Corner of QCharts. See attached.
ES 22 May 07
Today's chart
Regards,
PS: subtract 5 hours for Eastern time
a tiring day... good day nonetheless.
Today's ES Chart
05-22-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-22-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
My ES chart for today (5/22/07)...
I have decreasing black gaussian peaks at 13:50 and 14:10 in an "operating" up
channel, followed by increasing red peaks.
spooz
HVS
Hi,
Does any of the examples in my image (annex) are a HVS ?? (shadow areas)
I thought a HVS was a red and black bar almost of the same size with decresing
volume (red AND black).
Just to clear this out...
BTW, how can I merge my image 'inside' the post ??
Thanks to all,
Pepe
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
05-22-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Just a couple thoughts:
1) Thank you pr0 and pt1 for the QT enhancements, much appreciated.
2) YM annotations ALWAYS precede ES annotations, therefore for those that havn't
checked out Spyder's YM charts in awhile, he is showing the gau. Annotating the
YM gau has helped me with my ES gau annotations.
-Mike
Fairly new to this and trying to follow along. Can a r2r or b2b on the 5 min ES consist of just 2 bars?
Quote from woundedknee:
Fairly new to this and trying to follow along. Can a r2r or b2b on the 5 min ES consist of just 2 bars?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Thx. I was referring specifically to the middle r2r on Spydertraders ES chart. I thought a r2r was decrasing red followed by increasing red so find this a bit confusing.
Quote from woundedknee:
Thx. I was referring specifically to the middle r2r on Spydertraders ES chart. I thought a r2r was decrasing red followed by increasing red so find this a bit confusing.
) but if you're just starting out
and glancing at Spyder's charts one might be tempted to say it's just all
gobbledy gook. Don't work if sometimes the actual colors of the volume bars
dont' seem to make sense, look at what volume is doing overall (increasing or
decreasing in a general sense) over the entire period of the channel which is
the traverse you are annotating the gaussian for.__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: HVS
Quote from Pepe:
BTW, how can I merge my image 'inside' the post ??
__________________
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
I marked bar 8+9 as HVS and was convinced price went in from the bottom and would come out on the top. Why isn't it marked as HVS on your chart?
__________________
STR / SQU
For those of you looking at the Quotetracker STR / SQU Tool (and anybody else
with an interest), I have uploaded today's QCharts STR / SQU in Windows Video
Format
here.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Spydertrader,
I'm wondering why bars 15:20, and 16:00 are not marked as FTT on your chart.
Aren't these double bottoms on the bar following channel expansion?
I guess the first one is start of HVS. So that negates the FTT aspect? Does it
only qualify as a stall because highs and lows are the same?
The second one seems straightforward double bottom expansion channel FTT.
Thanks,
Esteban
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
The bars to which you refer aren't marked an HVS because they do not form an HVS. The price formation looks very similar to an HVS, but in reality, does not form one. The actual flaw bar (bar 9) is a stall. The price formation looks similar to an HVS because all three bars have the same high. Price forms an FBO then heads lower (and back into the channel). Bar 9 stalls and heads higher. had bar 9 not made an equal high as the previous 2 bars, the whole Price sequence would appear much clearer.
Hope that helps.
- Spydertrader
Tough, choppy day for me on Es. I found myself reversing time and again on
late day downtrend, usually getting short at a loss.
When I added it all up it was positive, however, to my great amazement.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
How could I have noticed this was not an HVS?
__________________
LOL, took me an extra cup of tea to get through that post, but something clicked. Great logic walkthrough.
Spyder,
These kind of intricate posts really help tell me I'm on track with my thinking
process. Thanks so much.
One question which appears a bit of a mystery, or I'm a bit blind. You have a
pt3 annotated at the top of the flaw bar being discussed as well as the
asscociated channel lines. Where is pt1 ? I put the RTL as you have it on my
chart and extended it backwards and I don't see what or where it matches up to.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
str/squ commentary
Took a video of today and spent some serious time reviewing what STR/SQU did
at many of the tree-level "action points." It was a great exercise... Attached
is a pdf with some before/after screens and some commentary.
Observations/comments/suggestions welcomed...
download
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Walk with me as we review the price action at the time. If you can follow the decision-making process, you should see how (and when) you 'know' what the market says to you.
......
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from bundlemaker:
Where is pt1 ?
Quote from alp168:
When you see a presumed FTT, do you wait for 2 or 3 bars to confirm it or just jump into the market and correct the error late?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Spyder,
Quote from Spydertrader:
...
Whoops! On Bar 10 we do not see increasing black. We see increasing red (possibly decreasing red at first, but red none the less). Since increasing red does not drive Price higher, we realize we have made a second error (First on the FTT [it actually was an FTT] and second on the misidentification of the HVS).
...
[/B]
Spydertrader,
That walk thru of Ivo's proposed HVS changed my perspective of the annotations
on your chart. I see now that you are annotating how it turned out, not
necessarily how you saw it at the time. You may have thought bar 8 was an FTT,
and even traded it, then thought it was the start of HVS, then back to FTT, but
when all was said and done, you annotate it as it turned out, without regard to
what your actions were.
With that perspective I withdraw my questions about the dbl bottom FTTs on
expansion. They looked like FTTs as they occurred, I traded them, they turned
out not to be.
Fair enough,
Esteban
Carryovers and Laterals
Quote from Spydertrader:
High of the 15:10 Bar yesterday. See attached.
- Spydertrader
I constantly compare current bar with prev bar, would it fair to say as long
as current bar is 'inside' the prev bar then it is some type of flaw?
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from spooz_trader1:
I'm curious if this is a reasonable analysis.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Spyder,
If one has an up channel annotated (pt 1 bar 5, pt 3 bar 7, see attached snippet), regardless of the flaw pattern on bar 8/9, wouldn't one be thinking change since price tried to go higher on decreasing black volume (in an up channel)? And the bar 10 BO (up chan RTL BO and/or the lat BO) confirms the FTT.
I'm curious if this is a reasonable analysis.
thanks,
spooz
Funny how threads cycle go from DU to FRV of questions over and over
Here's another: When you draw decreased pace channel I'm curious how you decide
which potential pt1's you annotate and which you skip.
Example: On today's ES chart your 14:00 bar was a pt1. That type I understand as
stemming from an FBO of the faster paced previous channel.
I'm not seeing the specific logic of doing a pt1 at 13:15 and am wondering about
possibly having a pt1 at the BO of the earlier CCC (around 12:45).
I realize I may be over-analyizing this and if so that would be good to know. If
instead I'm missing something consistantly I want to get that fixxed asap.
Thanks!
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Spyder:
I have a question about one moment of yesterday (where I exited the day).
On attached picture (and YM) there is a B2B so according to rules I'd say it's a
PT3. In reality it turned textbook flag (continuation of red channel).
The question is: how would I know in advance it was not a valid PT3 (I see you
didn't annotate it as such on your chart)?
P. S. Checked yesterday T&S and found that huge size hit which moved price
higher.
Re: Carryovers and Laterals
Quote from PointOne:
That was an inspired choice for the Pt1 of the carryover channel. Was it chosen as the best fit or is there an absolutely objective way of choosing?
__________________
Quote from nkhoi:
I constantly compare current bar with prev bar, would it fair to say as long as current bar is 'inside' the prev bar then it is some type of flaw?
__________________
Quote from CFerret:
On attached picture (and YM) there is a B2B so according to rules I'd say it's a PT3.
Instead, I left
it alone in an effort to discourage traders from going too far down the
rabbit hole.
Quote from CFerret:
P. S. Checked yesterday T&S and found that huge size hit which moved price higher.
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
It is a Point Three, but its on a much 'finer' resolution level (limb), and as such, I didn't feel like trading it (after this morning's fun). I could have annotated it, but then, I'd have all those extra green arrows that give everyone heart attacks.
Quote from bundlemaker:
I'm not seeing the specific logic of doing a pt1 at 13:15 and am wondering about possibly having a pt1 at the BO of the earlier CCC (around 12:45).
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
..In addition, flaws forming at or near trendlines deserve closer inspection that normal.
I hope you find the above useful.
- Spydertrader
Quote from EstebanUno:
Spydertrader,
That walk thru of Ivo's proposed HVS changed my perspective of the annotations on your chart. I see now that you are annotating how it turned out, not necessarily how you saw it at the time. You may have thought bar 8 was an FTT, and even traded it, then thought it was the start of HVS, then back to FTT, but when all was said and done, you annotate it as it turned out, without regard to what your actions were.
With that perspective I withdraw my questions about the dbl bottom FTTs on expansion. They looked like FTTs as they occurred, I traded them, they turned out not to be.
Fair enough,
Esteban
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Whoops! On Bar 10 we do not see increasing black. We see increasing red (possibly decreasing red at first, but red none the less). Since increasing red does not drive Price higher, we realize we have made a second error (First on the FTT [it actually was an FTT] and second on the misidentification of the HVS).
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
Was this also the moment you found out it was not an HVS? I find this rather late.
__________________
Anyone see this FTT on the 10:05 bar? Extreme volume on the 10:00 bar
followed by a retrace (not shown) to the steep up channel RTL. I think this is a
good example of a FTT that is in the vicinity of a gaussian peak.
spooz
My ES for the morning
ES so far.
YM for am
YM:
Chart for the morning.
Compared to yesterday it was crystal clear. I participated in the major moves.
The first one was even from 9:45 until 10:50 netting 4 points or so.
I just lost some ticks after RTL break around 11:00. This was mostly for trying
to be short early instead of waiting for tape to be broken. In fact I did not
respect my timeframe. When you're trying 3 times to get in, get out, etc it's
easy to lose 1.5 points or so.
The signal at YM was very clear and squeeze gave a signal first so there was no
reason to lose ticks.
I find it hard to get into "continuation" mode again after a few washes. Because
you're in the "washing" mood you tend to get out with a small profit although
all the lights are green... That is not a good thing because every big profit
starts with a small move and if you're not in...
I recorded some nice material with good examples, will post soon.
regards,
Ivo
so far...
10:30 L 34, pt 3
10:40 reversed at 33, RTL BO, -1
10:42 exit at 34.50, RTL BO, -1.5
Quote from ivob:
I find it hard to get into "continuation" mode again after a few washes. Because you're in the "washing" mood you tend to get out with a small profit although all the lights are green... That is not a good thing because every big profit starts with a small move and if you're not in...
I recorded some nice material with good examples, will post soon.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from bdolnik:
That's funny, I get into that same mode... I hate it but it's hard to resist taking that little bit of profit and feeling 'safe' again.
Up 2.25 pts this morning.
Love the examples and videos, keep them coming, they are much appreciated.
Bryan
Well that was fun. Sat down at about 14:10 after sleeping in, made 3 trades
for +7 pts, and quit for the day at 14:50
I just had a pretty neat experience and thought it worth sharing. I've had
some fairly frustrating attempts at going to the sim. After some help from the
arachnid world, helping me to see I was changing resolutions without realizing
it, I started this afternoon afresh.
While the shift in thinking that was suggested to me was as important as
anything, there is one major change in how I approached using the sim that I
suspect turned out to be useful. Keep in mind that my mind has been sullied with
years of "set up" (or edge) trading mentality. So, while I know I am supposed to
be thinking change or continuation, my behavior (actions with the mouse at the
sim) was one where I kept looking for the right "set-up" to enter. For example,
I would only enter at the FTT or at the pt3. That behaviour I now realize caused
me to focus on my entry point no matter how hard I tried to avoid it. I tended
to keep questioning whether I got the right entry and then kept mentally
whipsawing myself. Talk about painful. I had this so bad that I would do
anything to avoid trading if I didn't make the opening bell. It hurt to just
jump in middle of the day.
This afternoon I did something wacky. I determined what the trend was IN MY
RESOLUTION, and when price got closer to the RTL than the left, I just got in
and continued to monitor for change or continuation. For some reason this just
felt much much easier and more comfortable.
Without writing a book on what I'm driving at, I'm not sure if any of you will
get what I'm driving at. Perhaps just try this if it seems appropriate for where
you're at. Spyder, if this seems off track or wrong I'll delete this post, it
just seemed to help me so much.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
my chart for the day
ES 23 May 07
Today's Chart
5 MIN ES
Funny. I was following str/sq very closely today but it was giving so many
contrary signals in the last hour. Did anyone notice this?
regards,
Ivo
5-23-07 ES chart
.
Today's chart
Regards,
Today's ES Chart
05-23-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-23-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from ivob:
Funny. I was following str/sq very closely today but it was giving so many contrary signals in the last hour. Did anyone notice this?
__________________
STR / SQU Video
Today's Qcharts STR / SQU Video
- Spydertrader
__________________
spent most of the day on family obligations... but managed to jump right back
in upon return.
Being able to draw channels the JH way has its advantages -- you get to know
exactly where the market has been, and thus can anticipate where it is going.
My ES chart for today (5/23/07)...
spooz
Quote from Spydertrader:
Perhaps, you follow STR / SQU too closely. I recommended monitoring STR / SQU only when YM reaches extremes. Note how the word 'glance' seems to have significant emphasis in my linked post.
- Spydertrader
Quote from bundlemaker:
... This afternoon I did something wacky. I determined what the trend was IN MY RESOLUTION, and when price got closer to the RTL than the left, I just got in and continued to monitor for change or continuation. For some reason this just felt much much easier and more comfortable. ...
Quote from Pr0crast:
Well that was fun. Sat down at about 14:10 after sleeping in, made 3 trades for +7 pts, and quit for the day at 14:50
I took another 1/2 day off from work to trade today. It is the first day I
had a "full" toolkit running. ES 5min, YM 2 min, Qtracker PRV running on both,
and QT Str/Sqz plot in candles... Bottom line: I could see it, and feel it, just
like Jack and Spyder say! I made 3, 1 contract trades, all winners! Whooppee. L
for +0.75, S for +1.0 and a final L for +1.25. I stopped there to savor and
build some EQ.
I know one day does not make a trend, but when it "clicked" it sure felt good,
now I will start on the journey of seeing how often it stays "clicked." ... if
you have been frustrated, don't give up... take some time to reflect and reread,
then "just do it" ... but do it "just like Jack and Spyder say..."
ivob brought to my attention today a really cool QT tool... right-click your RTL to make a "trend line alert" that will blow a horn at you or something when the RTL is breached. so, if you are a strict forest trader, you can read a book or play a game and not worry when price is nowhere near your "action zone"
Seemed like an easy day. My opportunities to watch the market are sporadic
during the day so my annotating is usually incomplete in realtime. Finally
getting the software setup to make it easier. This is my first attempt at using
it.
This was the first day I used the str/sqz correctly(IMO). I glanced at it when I
felt the ym was forming an FTT and made several entries when appropriate. Also
had times when I thought it was appropriate to enter but no signal from str/sqz
so I waited and it was the correct thing to do. Soon after the signal came.
Thought maybe it was an aha day but it appears most had no trouble today. Look
forward to continuing this process.
Spyder the breakdown you did yesterday was very enlightening. I don't remember
reading the actual make up of the various patterns. DKM told me it was mentioned
in Jacks document on wealth building but I don't remember so it was nice to see
it laid out this way.
es 5-23
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-...20@ESM7%205.png
Quote from ticktrade:
Also had times when I thought it was appropriate to enter but no signal from str/sqz so I waited and it was the correct thing to do.
I agree, I dont know what it was exactly but everything seemed to work out
perfectly based on my channels, gaussians and ym points of change. I was telling
a buddy of mine that I think today was the easiest day I've seen since I
started. My hopes are that its not the day that was fairly easy rather I'm just
getting better
Quote from ticktrade:
Seemed like an easy day.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from ivob:
I have reviewed the video of this and tried to identify the moments where we know this is not an HVS (so on incr. red volume). In my opinion this does happens when we are three ticks below the bottom trendline of what we thought to be an HVS. We get a squeeze there and increasing red after that.
Was this also the moment you found out it was not an HVS? I find this rather late.
The video can be downloaded here. It is 600 KB and the length is 3 minutes. I annotated the moments I thought were important.
regards,
Ivo
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Jander:
Ivo...
how do you play the 10:12 bar on YM that is an FTT? I assume that you didnt reverse on that ym ftt, just wondering your reasoning for not doing that. I assume it is either the large number of FTTs on YM occuring almost all day, or you were waiting on a BO which took its sweet time. I also noticed that price fell pretty hard after breaking through the 20ma you have on there...
The way you have it marked clearly looks like a HVS. Thanks for posting the video examples. The debrief and discussion are a great help to alot of us...
Small annotated video how the first FTT was formed yesterday.
I was actually short (since the fbo) but reversed later on, on pt3 up. The move
was about 4 points.
I am also following DOM btw.
Here it is.
regards,
Ivo
Another example of a FTT following a gaussian peak (10:00 news spike).
Retrace followed.
spooz
Might as well complete the sequence...
Increasing Black to the guassian peak at 10:00
FTT
Decreasing Red to RTL
BO
Increasing Red (R2R)
==> "Change"
spooz
The scenario I am about to describe seems to be one of the last sticking
points I have to deal with. The attached chart is from just moments ago. I
called the last FTT annotated on the chart and marked the pt1. Then the up tape
to pt2 occurred and the retrace to pt3 began. All appeared well as the retrace
was on dec red prv for that whole first red bar and roughly half of the second
red bar. Then, intrabar, inc red kicked in and took us to a new low, at which
point I labeled the pt2 as an FBO.
First: at the forest "plus" level at which I''m trading (entering on the FTT not
the pt3), I really couldn't tell the pt3 wasn't going to happen until the trade
was roughly b/e (+ or -). Do I have this correct and does my process look
correct?
I also would have been hesitant to get short again, even on the incr red prv
because the volume wasn't near that of the last gaussian peak. At this point I
don't feel confident about what's going on so I would probably just wait until
things became clear again.
Which brings up a question regarding pt3 channels. There are three different
ways to get a pt1 (pt1 forms at the LTL, beyond the previous extreme price, or
shy of the previous extreme price) and pt2 can form within the previous channel
or after the break out or even failed breakout. Is this micro analyzing or do
these various combinations tell us something?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Again things seemed very clear. Didn't take all the trades due in part to
distractions at home and in part to fear. So used to being fooled by the market
I still have times when I don't trust what I see. Missed the runup. Took a point
short on FTT before the 10:00am news and exited for the release. This seems the
safest move on my resolution. Got good portions of the short legs.
The 11:00 - 11:10 bars had me confused as far as rentering the short position.
The volume made me think we might be reversing to an up channel. I did enter
short on a 2 min tape break and things quickly proved themselves.
Any comments on that sequence would be helpful.
Having trouble with the attachment so I'll include a link.
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-...20@ESM7%205.png
Hey Bundle,
Quote from bundlemaker:
The scenario I am about to describe seems to be one of the last sticking points I have to deal with. The attached chart is from just moments ago. I called the last FTT annotated on the chart and marked the pt1. Then the up tape to pt2 occurred and the retrace to pt3 began. All appeared well as the retrace was on dec red prv for that whole first red bar and roughly half of the second red bar. Then, intrabar, inc red kicked in and took us to a new low, at which point I labeled the pt2 as an FBO.
First: at the forest "plus" level at which I''m trading (entering on the FTT not the pt3), I really couldn't tell the pt3 wasn't going to happen until the trade was roughly b/e (+ or -). Do I have this correct and does my process look correct?
I also would have been hesitant to get short again, even on the incr red prv because the volume wasn't near that of the last gaussian peak. At this point I don't feel confident about what's going on so I would probably just wait until things became clear again.
Quote from bundlemaker:
..
First: at the forest "plus" level at which I''m trading (entering on the FTT not the pt3)
Quote from nkhoi:
you enter at FTT (P1) so you suppose to exit at FTT (P2).
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Pt2 is not an FTT on the same resolution. This is not correct.
Quote from Spydertrader:
The Beginning …….
... Once you locate an FTT and begin to follow price from that location, look for three possible ‘End Effects’ and take appropriate action.
1. Another FTT (Reverse)
2. An FBO (Exit)
3. A BO (Hold)
..
Good Journey to you all.
- Spydertrader
Quote from bundlemaker:
The scenario I am about to describe seems to be one of the last sticking points I have to deal with.
__________________
Quote from spooz_trader1:
IMO, this is yet another example of price making new lows on decreasing red volume. Of course, the volume was still extreme but significantly lower than the gaussian peak at 10:55.
Here is my ES for the day, quitting a little early.
Str/Squ called me daddy today
Today's chart
Today's ES Chart
05-24-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-24-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
5-24-07 ES chart
wonder who get my kind of vol?
nk- looks like spyder annotated a tree channel there, mine is forest. i think both are correct.
oh wow, i missed what your point was the first time around... pretty big data discrepancy!!! who is your provider?
eric..
that animated gif with the gaussians highlighted is excellent.. Anyone
struggling with nailing the gauss sequences should check this out...you seem to
have a great handle on this, congrats
In layman's terms, what are gaussians?
gaus·si·an (gous-n)
adj.
1) Relating to or described by German mathematician and astronomer Karl
Friedrich Gauss (1777-1855)
2) Relating to or describing a process where one reads the beginning of futures
journal where most questions have been answered in the previous 600+ pages.
Quote from Avi 8:
gaus·si·an (gous-n)
adj.
2) Relating to or describing a process where one reads the beginning of futures journal where most questions have been answered in the previous 600+ pages.
I ad the same question when I first read this journal and a google search
pulled up plenty of definitions for me
Quote from Bullz n Bearz:
In layman's terms, what are gaussians?
[QUOTE]Quote from optioncoach:
I ad the same question when I first read this journal and a google search
pulled up plenty of definitions for me
[/Q
UOTE]
And nobody is nice enough to define it, huh?
Quote from Pr0crast:
5-24-07 ES chart
My chart for the day (5/24/07)...
spooz
http://www.tdctrade.com/econforum/tdc/tdc061001.htm
volume patterns...
Quote from Bullz n Bearz:
[QUOTE]Quote from optioncoach:
I ad the same question when I first read this journal and a google search pulled up plenty of definitions for me
UOTE]
And nobody is nice enough to define it, huh?
I guss that Jack borrwoed from statistics for normal data distribution
-Gussian shape.
Hope it helps.
Quote from Bullz n Bearz:
In layman's terms, what are gaussians?
Hey Aurum,
Quote from Aurum:
Spyder and Jack have both commented that any volume over Extreme levels they consider to be equal. In other words, if you are in the extreme zone you don't need to compare volume - only price.
-Au
lol, if you want to get technical and stuff ;-) but in reality, for the
purpose of "making money," wouldn't you still treat a 50k red bar exactly like
you'd treat a 20k red bar? i mean, you're short either way and making bank, so
it's just a funny thing to argue about :-) although i can certainly see the
decreasing gaussian peaks that you see, i doubt the first thing on my mind when
i see a 36k red bar like at 12:30 is "change is coming!"
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Hey Aurum,
Thanks for the feedback! I remember hearing or reading about the "extreme" zone but I don't remember the context. If the context was for PRV, then I agree that 20K+ is extreme PRV.
However, if the context is PV, then I respectifully disagree or at least question it. If one compares the price range ("R" part of the R2B's) on the 10:55, 11:30, 12:30 gaussians, at least for this morning, you can see that the "more extreme" the peak was accompanied by more price range:
10:30 to 10:55 - widest range
11:10 to 11:30 - less than above range
12:05 to 12:35 - approx. equal or slightly greater than the 11:10 range but also less than the 10:55 peak. Note this peak was close in "height" to the 11:30 peak.
So, just using today's AM peaks, a more extreme gaussian peak looks like it correlated to more price range. Granted, I haven't done any statistical analysis on this.
IMO, price was "operating" in a down channel today and making new lows on decreasing R2B gaussian peaks until after 14:00 when more volume came in. Note that on my chart, I have a B2B around 12:50. So one could say that PV held up as the B2B BO'd a steeper RTL on the 12:55 bar (see my chart) posted above).
Sure, if one "Zooms Out" to a higher fractal (60 min, day week, etc), one can say that today was simply an Up channel retrace.
In general, I try to avoid blanket statements or "rules" like "any volume over extreme levels are equal". I'd rather try to relate as much as possible to PV and ideally, in a quantifiable way. Sure, right now, we consider 20K to be extreme but it seems to me that we need a statistical method to determine this otherwise it is "discretionary" and will be difficult to notice when the level changes, etc.
Of course, just my opinion(s) and food for thought and discussion. Regardless, thanks again for the feedback.
Sorry for the long post,
spooz
pr0crast's gaussian video
Good morning all,
If anyone wants to review their gaussian concepts, here's my attempt at
explaining (at the IBD Tucson meetup). Skip to around 7min45sec:
video download [173MB camtasia file] (right click, save as...)
camtasia_codec.exe (in case you don't already have it)
I hope you find this helpful...
-Pr0crast
I'm certainly not trying to be disagreeable - just pointing out the comments
that I've heard Jack and Spyder say on several occassions.
As always, YMMV!
-Au
Quote from Avi 8:
gaus·si·an (gous-n)
adj.
...
2) Relating to or describing a process where one reads the beginning of futures journal where most questions have been answered in the previous 600+ pages.
Hey Pr0,
Quote from Pr0crast:
lol, if you want to get technical and stuff ;-) but in reality, for the purpose of "making money," wouldn't you still treat a 50k red bar exactly like you'd treat a 20k red bar? i mean, you're short either way and making bank, so it's just a funny thing to argue about :-) although i can certainly see the decreasing gaussian peaks that you see, i doubt the first thing on my mind when i see a 36k red bar like at 12:30 is "change is coming!"
)
the "making bank" statement. And if one is monitoring for "change" and
"continuation" at all times, then maybe it's a mute point.. Did the decreasing R2B peaks up
until this point help anyone "anticipate" "change is coming", or was it just a
"lunch-time phenomenen", or simply random?
Spooz- While the huge red bar did not scream "change" to me, the huuuger FTT
that ensued did So we probably
ended up in the same place anyway...
Chart for the morning.
Had trouble getting in. Obviously there was no clear direction after the opening
allthough price did reside in an up channel. There was some news event (so it
seemed) that triggered a double bottom FTT right after 10:00. After that I
traded very well. Even pushing the hold button until "change" worked out.
regards,
Ivo
ivo, looks like you're missing a CO.
I'm curious why your down channel has 11:35 as your new pt 3? To me it doesnt
appear that price has proven yet that to be a pt 3 but maybe I'm missing
something. I think it could be a pt 3 but maybe too soon to draw in?
Quote from Pr0crast:
ivo, looks like you're missing a CO.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
I'm curious why your down channel has 11:35 as your new pt 3? To me it doesnt appear that price has proven that to be a pt 3 but maybe I'm missing something.
Quote from Pr0crast:
ivo, looks like you're missing a CO.
Doesnt that lead to redrawing channels an inordinant amount of times? It has
been in my experience. I'll watch the PV relationship and know where I am but
hold off on annotating too early as it causes more work for me.
Quote from Pr0crast:
You don't have to wait until something is "proven" before you draw it.
Re: pr0crast's gaussian video
Quote from Pr0crast:
Good morning all,
If anyone wants to review their gaussian concepts, here's my attempt at explaining (at the IBD Tucson meetup). Skip to around 7min45sec:
video download [173MB camtasia file] (right click, save as...)
camtasia_codec.exe (in case you don't already have it)
I hope you find this helpful...
-Pr0crast
Re: Re: pr0crast's gaussian video
Quote from ivob:
I like the video Eric.
Just a comment. You did not mention the importance of "tapes" regarding determining point 3's
regards,
Ivo
I'm sure I left out a couple
things. I actually tend not to use tapes too much, so that may explain it.
Perhaps when Bundlemaker *cough* gets around to making his next amazing video he
will be more thorough
My ES as of noon. Calling it a week. Have a great weekend everyone.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Doesnt that lead to redrawing channels an inordinant amount of times? It has been in my experience. I'll watch the PV relationship and know where I am but hold off on annotating too early as it causes more work for me.
Ok, I hear ya. I guess there are many ways to get to the same (and right!)
conclusion
Quote from Pr0crast:
To each his own. Some people draw tapes and fan out until the get a PT3. Some people wait like yourself. I tend to be somewhere inbetween.
My gaussians are "zoomed in" a bit after the increasing B2R's in this snippet
but shows "change" around 11:00 and 11:30. Prolly a good time to draw in "wider"
gaussians to synch with the "widened" down channel.
spooz
I still think one should consider the nature of a day like today before a
long holiday weekend. Volume going to be fading slowly as the day mvoes on into
nothing towards the close. Be careful of low volume whipsaws today. Be careful
out there today
Still a couple of pretty nice trades today and it aint over yet.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Spooz- While the huge red bar did not scream "change" to me, the huuuger FTT that ensued did
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Today's chart
Regards,
Today's Chart
5 MIN ES
5 MIN ES Again
Today's ES Chart
05-25-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-25-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
5-25-07 ES chart
ES
Re: 5-25-07 ES chart
Quote from Pr0crast:
ES
Maybe someone else can comment on this too, but here is what I see. It seems
to me that the dominant traverse here is disguised amidst the red bars, and
that's why you don't see increasing black. But I could be wrong.
In my gaussians i basically chose to discount those three flaw-ish bars and just
ignore the hidden dominant traverse, for fear of traveling too far down the
rabbit hole. I go straight from the red retrace to the red reversal.
a close up of the travs including the hidden traverse
a closeup w/out the trav
Quote from Pr0crast:
Maybe someone else can comment on this too,
__________________
Re: Re: 5-25-07 ES chart
Quote from ivob:
Hi Eric,
I was checking the 2-3's after the different breakouts on your chart and then noticed this channel (see attached) does not really follow it's gaussians. Maybe that is the reason why there is no clear point 2 and then point 3 down after BO.
Actually when I saw how price reacted after breakout of the channel on your chart I told myself to check the gaussians because I suspected something had to be missing there.
regards,
Ivo
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Re: Re: 5-25-07 ES chart
Quote from bundlemaker:
How about this this....
Viewed this way, that black bar is just part of a lateral which is a non-dominant traverse. Also, that bar is right at Pro's RTL and one would expect increasing blk at that point. The fact you don't get it is probably a pretty good clue.
Hey Bundle,
Quote from bundlemaker:
...
Anywho, the back and forth you and Spooz are having deserves a comment from the peanut gallery (that's me). If one thing is becoming more and more clear to me, it's that so long as you have the correct philosophy in your head and avoid getting stuck on a single data element you'll do just fine.
...
Having said that, I would tend to agree with Pro about what you said, Spooz. I agree, because what you said sounds so damn similar to my recent past. THe more I move away from thinking I'm missing something or needing a better tool or new way to see the data (guilty on all counts) and just "do it" the way Spyder is, the better I get each day. Just my 2 cents.
Hey Pr0,
Quote from Pr0crast:
Maybe someone else can comment on this too, but here is what I see. It seems to me that the dominant traverse here is disguised amidst the red bars, and that's why you don't see increasing black. But I could be wrong.
In my gaussians i basically chose to discount those three flaw-ish bars and just ignore the hidden dominant traverse, for fear of traveling too far down the rabbit hole. I go straight from the red retrace to the red reversal.
Re: Re: Re: Re: 5-25-07 ES chart
Quote from ivob:
Hi,
I saw it the same way. I just didn't understand the two points used to draw the up channel. The 1st point makes sense because that's where the incr. black started. The second one just seems some small black bar somewhere in the lateral (on lower volume). Black volume of these bars is even decreasing and not increasing. Here's my view on the possible channels in this area where the 1st option has my preference (and that's how I drew it). The 2nd option depends on how volume developed in the second bar used as part of it is red. I used orange.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Hey Pr0,
Using hindsight, here's a zoomed out view of the snippet being discussed...
Edit: I forced the gaussians to synch to the Forest up channel. Tapes not included
FWIW,
spooz
Spyder:
Today spent some time looking for flaws in what seemed to be non-dominant
traverses at first and indeed found that it almost always means that trend is
already changed and next to flaw goes switch in volume.
But now became curious: why is this so? What mechanism is behind this fact?
P. S. For those who may be interested I talk about trend change discussion in
chat (http://www.elitetrader.com/ch/DigiC...t/20070525.html)
Quote from CFerret:
Spyder:
Today spent some time looking for flaws in what seemed to be non-dominant traverses at first and indeed found that it almost always means that trend is already changed and next to flaw goes switch in volume.
But now became curious: why is this so? What mechanism is behind this fact?
Flaw Example
Quote from PointOne:
This is interesting stuff. Could you post an example (PV chart)?
__________________
As touched on above by CF, P1, and Spyder, there was a real nugget revealed
by Spy in the May 25 ET chat transcript. I've edited it up below b/c I think it
deserves some extra discussion/examples in the future:
The secret to finding reversals: Flaws only
develop in dominant traverses. Therefore, if you see a flaw before the next
dominant traverse in the current channel, that means there has been a
change in sentiment and the dominant switched.
Again: If flaws ONLY happen in dominant traverses, then a flaw in a non-dom must
mean the OLD dominant channel is no longer operating.
Yes, indeed.
This seems to be a very nice hint when looking for change in dominant sentiment.
The problem is: for me, I find it very difficult to recognize 'Stalls' (or
'Hitches') in Real Time, the reason of course is because I fail to understand
the 'particularities' of each of them
'Dips' seemed ok, as they have a very peculiar shape (very low volume, small
bar), HVS can be found sometimes by paying attention to decr red and black
volume in a lateral move.
Now 'Stalls' (and 'Hitches') are very hard to understand even in hindsight. I
tried to do some research about flaws this weekend, and I found among several
information, a hand drawn image in this thread (it is at page 149 of pr0crast
Volume 1) that shows an example of each flaw. This is referred as a 'temporary
pause' being two small bars in different directions...it seems to me like an
'extension' of a dip.
I also found a quote from Jack about Stalls, that as I understand it, is
contrary to the above explanation, as it says 'Stall are ends of trends where
you can exit ...'
Stalls are ends of trends where you can exit and sit sidelined during risk periods where direction is not defined. What you see are consecutive bar crossovers of the INDU by the YM. This is because smart money is sitting on a narrow price range and the INDU is flaming up and down around those values in a hyper manner. I could have said the picture by commenting in the opposite way vis avis INDU and then YM. We need to stay on YM as smart money which is leading the cash which in turn, by the signals we take leads ES.
Stalls last quite a while and the cash is relatively volatile. here in mentoring the person working tells me it is "mud". We sit out mud.
Hitches are intermediately occurring formations during longer trends. They are small short lived low volatility stalls where the trend resumes. At first no one can differentiate a stall from a hitch. So do not exit at first until a stall is evident. No ruch no change in value of exit . A 2 pair oscillation in ES is a likely thing during this early time. You either get a trend resumption on ES volume picking up or you exit as the time duration of a hitch is exceeded and you then know a stall is evident.
The attached .pdf file is a compilation of some discussion on flaws from the ET Chat last week. I edited it for my own use and reference but it should be useful to others.
Quote from R/R:
The attached .pdf file is a compilation of some discussion on flaws from the ET Chat last week. I edited it for my own use and reference but it should be useful to others.
R/R
Thanks for sharing.
very cool stuff.
Thanks R/R. very beneficial read.
Quote from R/R:
sorry, file didn't attach - trying again
Here's an index I recently started for quickly linking to Spyder's daily ES
chart posts. This has helped me to quickly pull up charts for review since I
don't print them out.
Hope others find this useful also.
I use Open Office instead of MS Office. Hope this Excel conversion worked ok.
Many thanks, R/R!
Quote from ticktrade:
R/R
Thanks for sharing.
very cool stuff.
stall
Per Spydertrader (last post down the page):
A 'Stall' represents a temporary slowing of price movement in the direction of the dominant trend. Usually represented by an opposite color Price and Volume Bar (but not always) a stall normally falls 'inside' the previous Price bar and has significantly lower Volume than the previous Volume bar.
Quote from Pepe:
... Now 'Stalls' (and 'Hitches') are very hard to understand even in hindsight. ...
Flaws
Some visual examples of flaws, also per
Spydertrader:
Re: stall
Thanks cnms2,
I saw that post also. It just seems that exists several definitions for 'Stalls'
(see Jack's post). This definition from Spyder can be used for every bar
that is a 'pause' in the trend (which can be the correct and only interpretation
)
I post an example from one of Spyder chart's (21-May). See the two red bars in
the middle of the up trend, at least one of them can be considered a 'Stall'
using this definition....I think
Either way, this is just a question that arised because of the hint from
Spyder's chat that made me search for more info.
Best Regards,
Quote from cnms2:
Per Spydertrader (last post down the page):
here's a more fun way to do your gaussians. it is easier to "see" change, and
it is easier to synch gaussians w/ channels.
Re: Re: stall
Quote from Pepe:
I post an example from one of Spyder chart's (21-May). See the two red bars in the middle of the up trend, at least one of them can be considered a 'Stall' using this definition....I think
__________________
Re: Flaw Example
Spyder (and others),
Quote from Spydertrader:
Re: Re: Flaw Example
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Given the recent discussion of flaws, I'd appreciate any feedback on the 10:55 stall in my up channel as it seems to potentially be a dominant/non-dominant "boundary" case.
__________________
Re: Re: Flaw Example
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Spyder (and others),
My Up channel for 5/25 am is a bit different than yours
Re: Re: Re: Flaw Example
Spyder and PointOne,
Quote from Spydertrader:
Based on your channels you have an FBO followed by a second FTT. Your up channel differs from mine because it doesn't take into account the previous day carryover channel (Thick Green lines on my chart snip).
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Flaw Example
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Yep, I figured your green up channel was CO. I'm just trying to apply the "flaw" rule (occur in dominants) using my up channel.
Quote from spooz_trader1:
I'm probably over-analyzing this but I felt pretty comfortable about my channels, especially the up channel, textbook IMO.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: stall
Quote from Spydertrader:
Not Quite. Neither of the bars represent stalls. Together, [b]both of the bars create a retrace (red tape) of a traverse (thick blue) of a channel (thick red). Please note how the red volume bar at 14:25 continues to exceed the levels of the black volume bars prior to it (i.e. Increasing Red still holds dominance).
As such, the first red bar forms a Volatility Expansion (or a Left Trend Line Bounce - depending on how one draws in their channel lines). The second red bar creates an FBO of the Traverse (and a Volatility Expansion of a tape). Such detail represents trading at a much finer resolution level (in this case, limbs and leaves) than one should normally monitor at a Beginner Level. If one has chosen to head further down the rabbit hole before obtaining the necessary experience to do so, then one has far greater concerns than differentiating between 'types' of flaws.
In the original posting of this chart, I avoided annotating the finer resolution levels in an effort to dissuade others from heading down the rabbit hole too quickly. Just as FTT's do not exist on every bar, so too do we see relatively few flaws throughout the day. At this resolution level, we do not need to know the subtle differences between each particular type of flaw. We simply need to know what happens after an FTT, and when to anticipate the likelihood of flaws developing (Volume provides the clue). When what happens next doesn't begin to materialize in a timely fashion, we know we must have a flaw. Learn to differentiate flaws from FTT's and it won't matter what type of flaw you see. As I pointed out several times in the beginning of this Journal, developing the ability to quickly recognize errors made during observation allows the trader to wash, or better yet, profit from, their errors (thinking FTT when one actually has a flaw). By focusing on the differences between flaws and FTT's (and given some time and experience) you'll 'see' on your own the subtle differences between flaws as they develop on the price charts.
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Spyder, would you mind explaining briefly how the 10:55 is indeed a stall bar? Thanks.
another example of flaws happening in dom travs... very cool to catch that
trade
YM
update for ES a few min later:
chart for the morning.
Trading was hard because of the choppy market. After some trades I had one point
just to give it away the next trade.
I cannot imagine myself making a profit on a day like this. The last half hour
is okay by the way.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
I cannot imagine myself making a profit on a day like this. The last half hour is okay by the way.
__________________
Getting better and better at separating the HVSs from the FTTs etc. Here's a
sequence from this morning that was good practice--hopefully I got through it
correctly.
1) we have a retrace of the green channel, bounded by the thin red trendlines.
2) price is oscillating in this retrace channel on decreasing volume... thus we
assume HVS.
3) HVS = flaw, so we should see continuation downwards after the flaw is over,
UNLESS we get an FTT.
4) we get increasing red volume like we wanted, but it FTTs. time to reverse
long!
Thank you,
It did turn out profitable after all. Afternoon was much better.
It was cool to know about 10 minutes before point 3 up at 15:35 that the market
would resume upwards after the FTT of 15:15.
- First of all a decent point 3 had not been formed yet since the breakout
(around 14:45) so I was expecting it.
- There was decreasing volume after the FTT but not decreasing red, it was
decreasing red and black (also YM gave a good clue)
- Price did not break the RTL (of that moment) with increasing volume.
regards,
Ivo
Today's ES. Spent much of the day playing around with QT. It has some nice features. But I'm so use to TOS for my charting... maybe I'll use both for a while. Have been focusing more on flaw identification. It is interesting that since flaws are found only on the dominant traverse, they (flaws) act like a leading indicator for change. Pr0crast and I were sharing our thoughts on this today.
Today's ES Chart
05-29-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-29-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hey Spyder,
I was thinking about the recent "flaw guidelines" this afternoon and it just
occured to me that the guidelines really aren't anything new. Back in the good
'ol pre-Forest days, when we were ID'ing FTT's, I remember committing to memory
the following:
If you think you have a FTT but it later turns out to be a flaw, then reverse
immediately to get back on the right side of the market.
Since FTT's occur in dominant traverses the above statement implies flaws also
occur in dominant traverses.
Is this correct?
thanks,
spooz
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Since FTT's occur in dominant traverses the above statement implies flaws only occur in dominant traverses.
Is this correct?
thanks,
spooz
See attached.
This is the beginning of a series of posts to deal with Flaws and prep us for
going to the next stage in June.
My posts are too long for the capacity of ET.
Quote from jack hershey:
See attached.
__________________
Jack, in your word doc. you wrote...
"We saw how volatility expansion on the RTL lead to wider channels and finally
FTT's happening on the more difficult width of traverse on dominant movement"
I thought volatility expansion happened on the LTL (left trend line) leading to
wider channels..?
Quote from ang_99:
Jack, in your word doc. you wrote...
"We saw how volatility expansion on the RTL lead to wider channels and finally FTT's happening on the more difficult width of traverse on dominant movement"
I thought volatility expansion happened on the LTL (left trend line) leading to wider channels..?
Quote from ang_99:
Jack, in your word doc. you wrote...
"We saw how volatility expansion on the RTL lead to wider channels and finally FTT's happening on the more difficult width of traverse on dominant movement"
I thought volatility expansion happened on the LTL (left trend line) leading to wider channels..?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Mini-Glossary
Level I - Tapes (leaves)
Level II - Traverses (limbs)
Level III - Channels (Trees / Forest)
MADA - Monitor, Analyze, Decide, Act
Translation - Continuous Price Movement in one direction across Bid / Ask pairs (Tic Chart)
LSL - Long, Short, Long
SLS - Short, Long, Short
Internals - A positive way to say, 'flaws'
Drift - STR / SQU Offset not exactly correct (due to changes in market dynamics throughout the trading day) resulting in skewing of the Premium Chart above or below the Zero Line.
Mode - Continuation or Change
- Spydertrader
9:50 ES dip bar
Spyder,
I have a question about the dip you labelled on your ES chart at 9:50 am.
At what time did you determine it was a dip?
The reason I ask is that through the whole duration of the 9:50 bar, the PRV
volume indicated the bar looked like a FTT and the volume ended up very close to
the previous bar (Flaw is not even in my mind due to the vol). It was not until
about 9:56:40 of the 9:55 bar did we see the increasing black PRV.
I want to make sure I did not miss any clues that might have alerted me to the
dip sooner.
Does the narrow range of the bar (compared to prev bar) or the fact that the
price oscillated for a while around a bid/ask pair during the 9:50 bar provide
hints?
Could the 9:50 bar be a very short non-dominant retrace as opposed to a dip?
Re: 9:50 ES dip bar
Quote from bi9foot:
At what time did you determine it was a dip?
Quote from bi9foot:
The reason I ask is that through the whole duration of the 9:50 bar, the PRV volume indicated the bar looked like a FTT and the volume ended up very close to the previous bar (Flaw is not even in my mind due to the vol). It was not until about 9:56:40 of the 9:55 bar did we see the increasing black PRV.
Quote from bi9foot:
I want to make sure I did not miss any clues that might have alerted me to the dip sooner.
Quote from bi9foot:
Does the narrow range of the bar (compared to prev bar) or the fact that the price oscillated for a while around a bid/ask pair during the 9:50 bar provide hints?
Quote from bi9foot:
Could the 9:50 bar be a very short non-dominant retrace as opposed to a dip?
__________________
Economic Data
Minutes from the May 9th
FOMC Meeting
released today at 2:00 PM Eastern Time.
- Spydertrader
__________________
I just heard from Spyder that his lawn care crew cut the Internet connection.
He may be unable to post for the next several days until the cable company
repairs it, and apolizes in advance for any inconvenience it may cause.
-Au
Chart for the morning.
I was trading quite well and caught the 10:30 FTT at the top after being long.
Then after breakout of the blue uptrend I was expecting a point three down and
made several mistakes there after completely missing the 10:45 FTT. (did not
have the red channel in place...). That's a pity because I gave away three
points like that and made a few mistakes after that.
Had I noticed the 10:45 FTT I would have been looking for a point three up which
came exactly at 11:15 on my chart. Instead I was waiting and waiting for my
point three down. This was a mistake and I should have been checking my
trendlines. I had more than half an hour of time to discover I missed the 10:45
FTT but did not notice it. A good thing to do instead of "waiting" would be to
check the trendlines and gaussians.... I will try to be more concentrated.
Regards,
Ivo
Quote from ang_99:
Jack, in your word doc. you wrote...
"We saw how volatility expansion on the RTL lead to wider channels and finally FTT's happening on the more difficult width of traverse on dominant movement"
I thought volatility expansion happened on the LTL (left trend line) leading to wider channels..?
ES
YM
ES
Today's ES Chart
Four words you don't want to hear at 9:40 AM Eastern Time,
"Poncho cut the Cable!"
Thankfully, the Lawn Crew Supervisor purchased a "Cable / Satelite Repair Kit,"
fixed the damage from Poncho's Weedeater, and re-buried the line. Señor McGyver
had me back up and running before noon.
See Attached ES Chart.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-30-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
spent the day as the family's taxi driver.
most of this chart was annotated after the market.
Clarity
A few people wondered why I had Price crossing a Red and an Orange Trend Line
today (See Attached). Both Channels began on
05-23-2007 and continued until Price breached their respective RTL's today.
Note how Price paused before heading through this week old channel. We see the
same pause occur later in the day with the Orange channel.
Clearly, even week old Trend Lines have an effect on Price.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Post
.
__________________
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Four words you don't want to hear at 9:40 AM Eastern Time,
"Poncho cut the Cable!"
Thankfully, the Lawn Crew Supervisor purchased a "Cable / Satelite Repair Kit," fixed the damage from Poncho's Weedeater, and re-buried the line. Señor McGyver had me back up and running before noon.
See Attached ES Chart.
- Spydertrader
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
See Attached ES Chart.
- Spydertrader [/B]
Jesus , what an incredible thread, I don't even know what to say.
I've been hypnotized for 3 freaking days ( my girlfriend is worried..
)
No really, can you give a price to the stuff written here? I can't quantify, it
doesn't fit in my head.
Wheeww,sorry to interrupt I feel better now, I had to say it.
Back to annotation and drawing the freaking lines, I 'll be there with you soon
Quote from mark1:
Jesus , what an incredible thread, I don't even know what to say.
I've been hypnotized for 3 freaking days ( my girlfriend is worried..
No really, can you give a price to the stuff written here? I can't quantify, it doesn't fit in my head.
Wheeww,sorry to interrupt I feel better now, I had to say it.
Back to annotation and drawing the freaking lines, I 'll be there with you soon
Anyone have any suggestions on how to get the PRV tool working? I have
quotetracker downloaded and have tried many times to download and open the zip
file provided on pg 602 but the new updates arent taking affect. I'm tired of
trying to calc PRV in my head on the fly
Quote Tracker PRV: right click on chart and click on 'select indicators', go
to edit volume and check the 'show projected' box and click 'apply'.
Note the box does not stay checked but prv will show on the chart.
-Mike
Avi,
There is no such box to check. Are you referring to the Volume in the lower
indicator window. No such option exists on my version of QT.
QT PRV
1 Download file Pr0 linked to called STOCKS.EXE
2 Shut down QT
3 go into Program Files > Quote Tracker > and delete the folder named STOCKS.EXE
that is there
4 in place of the above file put in the new STOCKS.EXE that you downloaded.
5 Restart QT > then do as AVi has suggested
regards
Chart for the morning.
until 10 I had no clue what was going on. But it was not that hard. We had a
broken up channel. Then HVS with a clear point 1 at the top of the 10 o clock
bar. Point 3 down at 10:10
Later on it was fine.
regards,
Ivo
My chart for the morning.
It was quite clear at all times. Nailed all FTT's within a point.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Anyone have any suggestions on how to get the PRV tool working? I have quotetracker downloaded and have tried many times to download and open the zip file provided on pg 602 but the new updates arent taking affect. I'm tired of trying to calc PRV in my head on the fly
Thanks Callmate, will give it a whirl after the close.
Quote from callmate:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steve, download the new Beta version of QT, this new feature PRV is in there. Then if you have access to Pr0's site, simply download his workspace- viola!
Good trading to all!
TODAY'S ES CHART
Es chart for the day. Some questions later, after I see how others annotated.
ES
YM
Today's ES Chart
05-31-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
05-31-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
05-31-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from nkhoi:
dip question, we are a up channel, and this bar go higher but in diff color than dom color, shoudn't it be a stall?
__________________
HVS
If anyone had difficulty with the afternoon HVS, I briefly discussed a walk
through of the process in today's ET
Chatroom. The conversation begins around 3:28 PM. If anyone still has any
confusion surrounding an HVS, please let me know.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Spy, would you mind walking through this series of bars... You have it listed
as an HVS, but I did not perceive it as that at the time. The big red bar seemed
to me like an FTT. And if the next bars DO form an HVS, doesn't there need to be
an additional FTT somewhere since it came in from the top, and must come out
from below, barring any overriding signals of change? What did I miss? I suppose
if the big red bar IS an FTT, which signifies a change in sentiment, then we are
coming into the HVS from the bottom and out from the top........ right?
Also, from the chat:
"Spydertrader (May 31, 2007 3:34:25 PM)
15:10 shows priuce headed higher on decreasing balck ok so what do we have
eliminated ? Can't be cccc (too much volume) can't be hitch (price bars to
volatile) can't be a dip (highs and low equal, so we might have stall or HVS"
I caught the HVS there, but just wanted to note that I had increasing black
where you had decreasing black. Leave it to Qcharts to come up short on vol
#s...
Quote from Pr0crast:
Spy, would you mind walking through this series of bars...
Allow yourself to know that you
do know.__________________
Most of the flaws were added after market close.
.
A Drill
For those having difficulty distinguishing between Flaws and FTT's, take a
look at my chart posted above. Go through each Traverse (bar by bar) and note
how many Traverses show an FTT forming after a Flaw or after a
Volatility Expansion.
I hope everyone finds the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
__________________
decrease red + black for HVS
This is something that concerns me, I have the same time frame you have but my 13:40 vol is inc black, NK's is dec black making the HVS much more obvious. I see Spyders is the same as mine however he still has HVS labeled. Its just a little frustrating when small details like that paint a different picture.
Anyone interested in downloadind quotetracker beta the site is http://www.quotetracker.com/beta and install it over existing program. No need to uninstall old version. once installed ,r click chart and add indicators. Add volume or volume+ema. next to them is an edit button, click edit and in new window is a checkbox for "show projected" check that box and your good to go!
The Syllabus
The Syllabus
January 1 - ES Chart: Price, Volume, Channels and the FTT
February 1 - YM Chart: The YM leads the ES?
March 1 - Gaussians and PV
April 1 - STR / SQU (Stretch - Squeeze)
May 1 - Fundamentals Review
June 1 - DOM (Depth of Market) / Time and Sales
July 1 - TIC Charts and Two Pairs
Aug 1 - Flaws Summary
Sept 1 - Additional Signals for Change
Oct 1 - Putting it all together
Nov 1 - Real Time Video Example Trades
Dec 1 - Dec 20 - Final Exam
__________________
Lateral - Nikkei example
Before: (see chart)
The 0930 bar forms on large volume, heads down, hits support wall and
immediately heads back up. Very volatile compared to prior bars.
Price settles and during 0945 bar I know a lateral is forming. Price has entered
the lateral from below so I anticipate it breaking out from the top (see
arrows).
Re: Lateral - Nikkei example
Quote from PointOne:
Before: (see chart)
Quotetrack
PointOne,
How do you add volume ray and pbar onto the quotetrack chart? And the remaining
timer on your chart is cool too. Thanks.
The Depth of Market (DOM)
Depth of Market (DOM)
Our first foray into the World of Intra-bar Signals of Change brought the
STR / SQU Indicator into our Toolbox. Unfortunately, STR / SQU only brings us so
close to the actual ‘signal of change.’ STR / SQU certainly isn’t a scalpel, and
although quite effective at the appropriate time, it only provides a broad
signal. However, with the use of the DOM (and its partner - T & S), we have the
ability to anticipate signals of change before they occur. In this
context, STR / SQU then can provide a confirming signal – again when used
appropriately. While I plan to roll out different aspects of the DOM over
the next few days, I wanted to provide a place where everyone can begin to use
this tool.
As I always, I expect everyone to monitor
the DOM at first – noting the changes
in the various levels as they appear over time. This does
not mean “stay glued to the DOM all day.”
We want to look for a “wall of contracts” on either the Bid or the Ask side (See
Attached).
As Jack has often noted, the minority rules this situation. When Price
encounters a DOM Wall, Volume must come in and eat through the wall (or
contracts must be pulled off the Price Level) before Price can proceed through
this Price level. In other words, if the wall remains intact, we can anticipate
change. If size eats away at the wall (without other contracts replacing
those filled) we can anticipate continuation.
Imagine taking a bucket of water and dumping it onto your kitchen floor. The
water spreads out in all directions, right? Now, place a brick on the floor.
Dump the water in the same spot. Notice how the water hits the brick – and
bounces away. Remove the brick, and the water can, once again, head in the
direction previously occupied by the brick.
In essence, the above example provides an excellent analogy for what we hope to
see using a combination of The DOM and T & S. We want to monitor to determine if
our ‘wall’ remains in place, disappears entirely or ‘moves’ to a different
location. For now, we should focus on monitoring for when a wall remains in
place vs. disappears. This leaves us two questions: What do we look for (the
wall) and when do we look?
In an uptrend, if we notice a wall on the Ask (See Attached), we can anticipate
change as long as the wall remains in place.
In a down trend, if we notice a wall on the bid (See Attached), we can also
anticipate change as long as this wall remains in place.
Please, do not assume the levels shown
in the above examples to be absolute in nature. The numbers of contracts on a
wall are less important than the changes which take place across the Bid
/ Ask pair.
How do we know if we have size eating away at the Price Level or if the
‘spoofers’ (those individuals who ‘fake’ orders on the DOM) are pulling their
contracts? We can see this through the use of T & S (Time and Sales). If we have
a wall decreasing its size without a corresponding trade on the T & S,
then we can safely assume the smart money has decided to ‘pull’ their contracts
in anticipation of Price continuing the trend. The same is true when we
see multiple trades of size (greater than 50 contracts) eating away at
the DOM Wall. Normally, you’ll see a combination of these two (pulled contracts
and size hitting the wall) when the market finds itself in continuation
mode. If we see, no (or very little) size hitting the wall, and the wall
remains stable (no, [or few] pulled contracts) we can anticipate change
as the smart money anticipates Price heading in the opposite direction.
O.K., so, when do we look at the DOM?
For now, I want you to look at the DOM at the extremes of price – meaning at the
Right, or at the Left Trend Line. Once you have witnessed the creation of, and
how price reacts to, a DOM Wall, then, and only
then, should you place the DOM into your Toolbox.
Once in the Toolbox, the order of use works like this:
1. When ES approaches a trend Line, look to the YM.
2. If the YM is approaching either of its Trend Lines, look to the STR / SQU.
3. If STR / SQU sits in neutral (-2 to +2), look to the DOM / T&S.
4. If The DOM shows a wall, monitor that Price Level by watching the number of
contracts on that Wall and Monitoring what (if any) size hits the T & S.
5. If the wall comes down, we have continuation.
6. If the Wall remains intact, we have change.
7. Take appropriate Action (Hold or Reverse).
The above information should get everyone started.
I plan to have additional information posted over the weekend, but for now (and
even after I post the additional information), everyone needs to focus on
quickly locating and then determining continuation or change based off the DOM
Wall remaining in place or not.
Lastly, as with all the other tools, we should
only use these tools at the appropriate resolution level in an effort
to avoid heading too far down the rabbit hole. Trust me when I say, now that we
have Intra-bar tools at our disposal, its now easier than every to follow
Alice and head rapidly of the reservation.
I hope everyone finds the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Post
.
__________________
Post Attachment
.
__________________
Re: v4 posted
vol 5 posted. links to the old ones too for those who missed them.
spyfut.vol1.zip
spyfut.vol2.zip
spyfut.vol3.zip
spyfut.vol4.zip
spyfut.vol5.zip
Quote from Tums:
Welcome to this journey of discovery.
Start posting your charts now. Don't worry if there are mistakes, that's how we learn.
Word of Honour
Wow Spydertrader!
I'm impressed.
You did follow on what you said on the chat earlier about DOM.
I'm looking forward to learn more from you and follow your posts.
Ares
Hope somebody can help me with this. I am trying to set up the portfolio in QT for stretch/squeeze. I have INDU and get quotes but I cannot get YM to get quotes in this portfolio. I have typed in 'ecbot:@ym jun 07' about a hundred times and still cant get it to work. I get ym quotes in my default portfolio with the exact same symbol syntax. Does anyone have an idea wha is causing this?
Quote from mark1:
I know most of you guys have a real job
... , I wonder where you find the time, sheesh I want my life back!
Quote from woundedknee:
Hope somebody can help me with this. I am trying to set up the portfolio in QT for stretch/squeeze. I have INDU and get quotes but I cannot get YM to get quotes in this portfolio. I have typed in 'ecbot:@ym jun 07' about a hundred times and still cant get it to work. I get ym quotes in my default portfolio with the exact same symbol syntax. Does anyone have an idea what is causing this?
Spyder,
100s of thumbs up for your DOM post and huge effort on this thread.
Regards,
redduke
Apparently I'm the only one who reads the links posted on the second post of
this thread
The link to the thread titled THE STOCHASTIC INDICATOR is wrong, this is the
correct link
The Stochastic Indicator
I'm keeping an eye on you!
Quote from mark1:
Apparently I'm the only one who reads the links posted on the second post of this thread
The link to the thread titled THE STOCHASTIC INDICATOR is wrong, this is the correct link
The Stochastic Indicator
I'm keeping an eye on you!
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bundlemaker:
If you'd bothered reading another page or so in the thread you'd see an updated link.
DOM and T&S, wonder if anybody else has better setup
Here's my setup
My platform/DOM
Hey all. Back from vacation. Like to put in a plug for Buttontrader for
monitoring DOM. For me it gives the entire picture at a glance.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Here's my setup
ES
YM
5 MIN ES
Today's ES. It was a good day
Have a great weekend everyone!
Today's ES Chart
06-01-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-01-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Spyder: How come you do not consider the 13:50 bar a hitch ?
Hi Spyder,
You labled 13:15 to 13:55 as an HVS. Would you mind explaining which bar you saw
start the HVS and how we entered the HVS? When an HVS is that long, I get a
little confused
Sorry, just one more. Then I'll enjoy the weekend
The 15:10 ES bar is labled as FTT of red channel but is this really tradeable
based on the red channel? Its still 3 or so pts away from the Left Trend Line. I
cannot see how one could take this trade based on the red channel FTT. However
it is close to the RTL of a bigger up channel so I guess that comes into play as
well.
On my chart, I have the 15:10 bar slightly volitility expanding the left trend
line of a channel starting from the FTT at 13:50, so it cant be an FTT of that
channel. I can see how the 15:35 bar could be an FTT of that channel and that
would make sense for getting long. Is there anything you saw, preceeding the
15:35 bar that would have led you to the conclusion that price would head
higher?
Quote from Tums:
Spyder: How come you do not consider the 13:50 bar a hitch?
Quote from The Swordsman:
You labled 13:15 to 13:55 as an HVS. Would you mind explaining which bar you saw start the HVS and how we entered the HVS? When an HVS is that long, I get a little confused
__________________
Quote from The Swordsman:
Is there anything you saw, preceding the 15:35 bar that would have led you to the conclusion that price would head higher?
__________________
spyder, how did it feel when you first realized (in futures) that you could
make money virtually at will with no drawdown?
(and I don't mean "when did you know that you could"? but rather, what did it
feel like when that knowledge turned into actual facility in trading?)
Because I'm sitting here on several days of time lapse replay charts that I've
made where I randomly sit down during the day, synch up with the market
PV/channels and just extract money. And I'm thinking, O...M...G... LOL!
I never thought I'd "get it". Forget a light bulb turning on, it's more like a
freaking lightning bolt splitting my head open.
__________________
This world is not my home, i'm just passing through.
Light Bulb
Quote from Dantheman:
I never thought I'd "get it". Forget a light bulb turning on, it's more like a freaking lightning bolt splitting my head open.
I let
out a very loud,__________________
Re: Light Bulb
Quote from Spydertrader:
ROFLMAO.
Welcome to the other side of the hill. I recall exactly how I felt when the 'lightening bolt' hit.
Holy Shit!
- as I couldn't quite believe my eyes. Moments later, I let out another series of expletives as I realized how everything had been right in front of my face all along. I simply hadn't seen it.
Welcome aboard, and please, do what you can to help bring others across with you.
- Spydertrader
__________________
This world is not my home, i'm just passing through.
I am posting this because I know many following this thread use IB. I do not
want to bash IB (I'm a happy customer for years) nor want to get the thread off
track, but felt it important that users be aware that there are most definitely
data problems when IB fills charts.
In particular, the problem seems to occur most often during laterals and doesn't
seem to happen often, but then again I'm not really sure either. I stumbled upon
the problem because I'd get so frustrated sometimes because the gaussians during
the lateral often had one odd bar that screwed up the whole cycle. So, in order
to learn what I thought I was doing wrong I compared my chart to Spyder's,
debriefing bar by bar. Low and behold, I'd find Spyder had a red bar on inc vol
and my bar would be black on dec vol, for example.
I use Ensign and can force a refresh with DTN and DTN matched Qcharts almost
tick for tick. Not so with IB. I stress, this is not a huge problem early in the
learning stages, but for me at the level of progress I have made I feel it
important enough to cough up a few bucks to get the charts to be exactly right.
I apologize for slightly off topic but I know some of you might be getting
frustrated and it's not you.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Attaching p/l here. As you can see I am not making a living at this now, but I am humble and learning. Again all paper trades till I am confident and following everything learned.
Re: The Depth of Market (DOM)
Quote from Spydertrader:
Depth of Market (DOM)
...with the use of the DOM (and its partner - T & S), we have the ability to anticipate signals of change before they occur.
...
As Jack has often noted, the minority rules this situation. When Price encounters a DOM Wall, Volume must come in and eat through the wall (or contracts must be pulled off the Price Level) before Price can proceed through this Price level. In other words, if the wall remains intact, we can anticipate change. If size eats away at the wall (without other contracts replacing those filled) we can anticipate continuation.
...
We want to monitor to determine if our ‘wall’ remains in place, disappears entirely or ‘moves’ to a different location. For now, we should focus on monitoring for when a wall remains in place vs. disappears. This leaves us two questions: What do we look for (the wall) and when do we look?
In an uptrend, if we notice a wall on the Ask (See Attached), we can anticipate change as long as the wall remains in place.
...
How do we know if we have size eating away at the Price Level or if the ‘spoofers’ (those individuals who ‘fake’ orders on the DOM) are pulling their contracts? We can see this through the use of T & S (Time and Sales). If we have a wall decreasing its size without a corresponding trade on the T & S, then we can safely assume the smart money has decided to ‘pull’ their contracts in anticipation of Price continuing the trend. The same is true when we see multiple trades of size (greater than 50 contracts) eating away at the DOM Wall. Normally, you’ll see a combination of these two (pulled contracts and size hitting the wall) when the market finds itself in continuation mode. If we see, no (or very little) size hitting the wall, and the wall remains stable (no, [or few] pulled contracts) we can anticipate change as the smart money anticipates Price heading in the opposite direction.
...
I hope everyone finds the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Bearbelly:
Hey all. Back from vacation. Like to put in a plug for Buttontrader for monitoring DOM. For me it gives the entire picture at a glance.
Quote from PointOne:
Nice display.
Here's an example of a wall forming on the DAX yesterday:
It's been an interesting read so far.
I planned to speed read through this journal but am finding it hard to do.
There's so much good information that I don't want to skip.
I'm starting to understand now what they meant in the chatroom when they said
that the journal "snagged" them.
As I said in the chat, I'm mainly interested in trading the NASDAQ stocks. I
prefer to daytrade stocks below $10.
1000 shares for stocks below $5 with a risk/reward of 10 cent:25 cent.
500 shares for stocks between $5 and $10 with a risk/reward of 20 cent:50 cent.
I'm looking forward to shorten my "journey" through this journal.
Rather than going from the very beginning, it would be nice if I could get links
(that I was not able to copy from the chat earlier) that relates to stocks.
I've visited (and became a member) other message boards that have good
information too but it seems that Elite Trader seems to satistfy the my trading
style.
I especially enjoy the chat (which I've been searching from different websites)
where I could enhance my real time study.
Thanks a lot for the help that I've been getting from ELITE TRADERS,moderators,
and founder(s) that I'm just starting to get to know.
This site has an overwhelming amount of good information that I wish I could
consume in 1 day (and be able to digest everything).
Reality is, I have to nibble every now and then through this.
It looks like this thread is probably a good starting point in my search for the
best probability of a winning trade.
It would be nice if I could also "make money at will with no drawdown" in the
NASDAQ stock market.
Hopefully, when I get hit by the "lightning bolt" - I won't get fried.
Ares
DNDN
It would be nice to see an analysis of DNDN (since this is the stock that I
used for the study in the chat room) using the methodology in this thread.
So far, I agree that Price is King.
Volume is not supposed to lie (but is for the less skilled?).
What do you mean TUMS?
Which wheel are you referring to?
If you are referring to my trading style - I just want to expand on what I've
already learned.
If a see a better strategy, then I would be humble enough to consider the "new
light".
Quote from ivob:
This is nice. What kind of display is this?
regards,
Ivo
Thanks for the link TUMS.
I will study how the Hershey Equities Chartscript Version 4.2 works.
What I was looking more for was Trendlines drawn on DNDN with
FTT,FBO,BO,Volatility expansion,etc.
Equities
The Equities Discussion with respect to these methods takes place
over here. As far as learning to draw trend lines yourself, read
this document.
- Spydertrader
__________________
This is an awesome thread.
Thanks Spydertrader.
Do you have a link on a program that calculates intraday pivot points?
Thanks again,
Ares
Quote from Ares1:
Do you have a link on a program that calculates intraday pivot points?
__________________
Yesterday's chart...
Back to business finally..
Last week was very difficult, a meeting in Brussels took all my time for markets
This analysis was all in hindsight, but I took each bar like it was in RT, even
drawing the tapes as thought necessary.
Good Weekend to all
Isnt the long HVS around 13:20 confusing b/c the volume looks so erratic? Usually we see volume decreasing across the HVS correct?
Quote from The Swordsman:
Isnt the long HVS around 13:20 confusing b/c the volume looks so erratic? Usually we see volume decreasing across the HVS correct?
__________________
Would anyone care to give a brief (if this is possible) explanation of Harmonics?
Spyder, I'm wanna give my thought process to this HVS situtaion and would
appreciate any critiques you may have. I didnt see this as an HVS at the time,
perhaps b/c it is longer than most that I've seen.
I see the 13:15 bar as a VE of my up channel. This bar cannot be an FTT by
definition. The 13:20 bar i see could potentially be an FTT. However, the very
next bar shows dec black (instead of dec red, which would confirm the FTT) so I
eliminate the 13:20 bar as an FTT. Next I see the 13:35 bar as the next
potential FTT, however the next bar again, is not dec red. Finally, the 13:50
bar, again another FTT candidate, has the following bar show dec red so I see
this bar (13:50) as the FTT. Sure enough, prices head lower.
Fire away
Quote from Spydertrader:
When we have a shorter HVS (3 or 4 bars) we normally see the telltale decreasing volume of oscillating color (RBRB or BRBR) - typical of an HVS . As the HVS extends further out in time (into a longer lateral), the opportunity for all sorts of Volume changes develop. However, by time we move into this area of lateral extension, we have already eliminated all other Flaw formations. One may see an HVS turn into a CCC the longer it continues (especially in the late summer months). When this happens, simply sideline until volatility improves. The key to alleviating any confusion stems from lateral movement and Even Harmonics which represents continuation and calls for one action - hold. The HVS to which you refer doesn't start out as a lateral, but does finish as one. Perhaps, this added some lack of clarity to the situation as well.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Fire away
__________________
Quote from Bearbelly:
Would anyone care to give a brief (if this is possible) explanation of Harmonics?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Thanks Spyder!
Just a follow up question:
1. When you say a stall (in this example) would show increasing black, you mean
that HAD this been a stall, the black volume of the 13:25 bar would supercede
the volume of the 13:20 bar when it closed? Then, if this had happened, knowing
what we know about stalls, that we would expect to see a similar bar to the VE
bar at 13:15 to follow?
Quote from Spydertrader:
A stall (in this example) would show increasing black, and allow us to anticipate a similar level of volume (and similar price move) to what we experienced on the VE bar. CCC (occurring over significant periods of time) would allow us to anticipate "Four O'Clock Drift" as described in the Jokari Window Document.
We need to know always what the market says (continuation or change), and we arrive at this conclusion by understanding what we have in front of our eyes. When we cannot determine what we do have immediately, we arrive at our answer by eliminating what we don't have. After eliminating the impossible, whatever remains gives us the correct answer.
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
When you say a stall (in this example) would show increasing black, you mean that HAD this been a stall, the black volume of the 13:25 bar would supercede the volume of the 13:20 bar when it closed? Then, if this had happened, knowing what we know about stalls, that we would expect to see a similar bar to the VE bar at 13:15 to follow?
__________________
Quote from PointOne:
Excel. PM me if you need more.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Bear, maybe this will help, but I admittedly don't know a great deal about this and I suspect there is some deeper meaning to harmonic action beyond merely a labeling tool.
Odd harmonics is like a square wave. On the chart it would appear as a lateral, price moves out of lateral, only to form a new lateral, slightly above or below the prior.
Even harmonics is more like price ramping up and down, H&S patterns, etc.
Hope that helps a bit.
Quote from jack hershey:
This is the point in your trading skills acquisition where time is going to slow down quite a bit for you. we are moving into slow motion trading at this point. Way past "freakout" land that causes fear, anxiety and anger.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Bear, maybe this will help, but I admittedly don't know a great deal about this and I suspect there is some deeper meaning to harmonic action beyond merely a labeling tool.
Odd harmonics is like a square wave. On the chart it would appear as a lateral, price moves out of lateral, only to form a new lateral, slightly above or below the prior.
Even harmonics is more like price ramping up and down, H&S patterns, etc.
Hope that helps a bit.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Harmonics
Quote from Bearbelly:
Would anyone care to give a brief (if this is possible) explanation of Harmonics?
__________________
Post Attachment
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Post Attachment II
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Post Attachment III
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__________________
Post Attachment IV
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__________________
Post AttachmentV
Last One
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Re: The Depth of Market (DOM)
Quote from Spydertrader:
We want to look for a “wall of contracts” on either the Bid or the Ask side (See Attached).
- Spydertrader [/B]
Re: Re: The Depth of Market (DOM)
Quote from vjr:
Should we just be focusing on the inside market of the wall or should be be also looking at the depth of the wall in our analysis?
__________________
Thank you Spyder for the explanaation of the HVS.
I have a question about a particular channel from fridays ES chart. I know
channels can be subjective but I would still like to understand the rationale
for this one. The channel in question is the red channel that has point 1 being
11:55. What made you decide to draw this one in? I've been looking at it for a
few days and cant seem to understand this one (all the others make perfect sense
to me). I drew in all others in realtime but would not have thought to add this
one.
Thanks for all the help!!
Re: Harmonics
Quote from Spydertrader:
\With respect to Odd and Even Harmonics,
Quote from The Swordsman:
What made you decide to draw this one in?
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
snip...because of the FTT's which form on the Blue and Olive Up Channels (Traverses).
- Spydertrader
[/B]
Spy,
I had a hard time finding the gaussians to justify that channel. If a channel is
not backed up by gaussians, what does it represent other than S/R from those
individuals who also drew the mechanical channel?
Quote from Spydertrader:
I drew in the RedAnytime one 'sees' an FTT, one should determine if that FTT created a Point One or a Point Three of a larger channel, and not just a 'point of change' of the current traverse.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Pr0crast:
Spy,
I had a hard time finding the gaussians to justify that channel. If a channel is not backed up by gaussians, what does it represent other than S/R from those individuals who also drew the mechanical channel?
__________________
Your pink RTL (my orange) was broken on increasing black volume. Thus your
red channel (my dotted channel) is just a fanned out version of your pink
channel using a recycled PT3, which I thought was only done when the RTL breaks
on DECR volume.
My updated chart (dotted lines are your chan)
Quote from Spydertrader:
See Attached.
I was comparing bar by bar of price and volume on Friday June 1. I am using esignal for data and charting and recently added on quotetracker for charting fed by esignal data. I realized the price bars were different from esignal charts and quotetracker charts. Remember the data on both charts is esignal. i have attached a 10 am to about 11 am of both charts. look at pt.1 of down channel then compare bar by bar. Could this be a clock sync issue. Is this what we see sometimes when our data seems off? please pm me , as to not distract the journal . BIG THANKS to ALL, this is a great journal.
this is the quotetracker price bars
Quote from TIKITRADER:
this is the quotetracker price bars
Extra Channel
Quote from Pr0crast:
Your pink RTL (my orange) was broken on increasing black volume. Thus your red channel (my dotted channel) is just a fanned out version of your pink channel using a recycled PT3, which I thought was only done when the RTL breaks on DECR volume.
__________________
PointOne's DOM Chart
OK, I've had a lot of PMs regarding my Excel chart of the DOM.
I do not want to distract from Spyder's recommended syllabus or spoil the pace
at which he wants to introduce elements of the DOM – so by all means start using
my chart but please don’t use this thread for questions on design improvements
or getting it to work. If there are major issues with it, PM me, but remember
it is given free, “as is” and it is not supported.
Pre-requisite: Makosgu's PRV spreadsheet which already has the DOM DDE
feed. I cut out the PRV sheet as I no longer needed it, thanks to the recent
QT enhancement. This makes everything run faster and Excel remains responsive so
you can tweak the chart in real time as required.
I’ve attached the chart (it's actually 3 charts in a row with some simple logic
on the DOM numbers) which is linked to hard wired DOM numbers to get you going
with the formulas I use. You have to link to your own DDE derived DOM
numbers in your sheet – and there are several ways to do that. Once you
have linked in to the right numbers, save, close, open and allow macros and
updates to run. Check the chart is working in real time. (Adjust the horizontal
scale as required by double clicking it.)
If it does work first time, as it did for me, you will probably shout "Holy
Shit!, why didn't I do this earlier!"
Enjoy, but please don’t get distracted by it – remember where it fits within the
toolbox.
P1
When Price breaks through an RTL on decreasing Volume, the market has told us the current channel is incorrect. As such, one must draw a 'fanned' channel in an effort to insure Gaussians match the correct channel.
When Price breaks an RTL on increasing Volume, the market has said, "While the previous channel was correct, the current trend has changed." In such an environment, the next question becomes, 'How much has the trend changed?"
Please see attached an example of an xls that I put together to show various
characteristics of the DOM in real time summarized as follows:
1. This is an IB feed using standard IB DDE syntax, performance is good because
excessive calculations are not taking place. Data is replaced instantly in each
cell.
2. Left most section shows the DOM Ladder,3 columns, price,size, accumulated
size.
I colored the ask side with green and the bid side with red, but only colored to
the largest size in each level. This allows you to see the wall easily.
The yellow color is used to show which side has the largest accumulated size.
3. Middle section, For each of the 5 levels of the DOM a Horizontal bar that
expands or contracts based on the corresponding size.
4. Right section, Similar to the DOM ladder on the left side, this only shows
the biggest wall amongst the 5 levels of each side, plus the immediate inner
pair.
5. I will post the actual xls later today
Very nice Mikey. This one does not require any other excels, correct? Ive been requesting this for quite awhile. Thank you guys for all your work and for sharing it.
Thanks
Thanks Pointone and Mikey for sharing.
Good trading to all
Chart for the morning.
Not easy to trade. Low volume.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from ivob:
Low volume.
Spy, do you pay attention to flaws on the YM for signals of change/cont, or does that not fall within the constructs of "sufficiency"?
YM Flaws
Quote from Pr0crast:
Spy, do you pay attention to flaws on the YM for signals of change/cont, or does that not fall within the constructs of "sufficiency"?
__________________
It would be so nice for Spyder to make these explanations of his charts and such much more "Reader's Digest" like..
Quote from Bullz n Bearz:
It would be so nice for Spyder to make these explanations of his charts and such much more "Reader's Digest" like..
Quote from mikeytrader:
Please see attached an example of an xls that I put together to show various characteristics of the DOM in real time summarized as follows:
1. This is an IB feed using standard IB DDE syntax, performance is good because excessive calculations are not taking place. Data is replaced instantly in each cell.
snip
Quote from dougcs:
Thanks Mikey; I was working on this over the weekend but did not get far. Look forward to seeing the .xls.
Also, what are the symbols IB uses to transmit these data? I've asked them and they claim they don't know????
If I can get the symsbols, I might be able to use them in Tradestation using a 3rd party data server.
Doug
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from bundlemaker:
They aren't separate symbols, but rather specific syntax. You still use the symbol for ES and the proper expiry, but then specify "last", "volume" , and other parameters like those for market depth. You can download and review the API documentation from IB's web site.
TODAY'S 5 MIN ES
Today's ES
06-04-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-04-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Hey Spyder,
I shorted at 15:25 bar and thought everything was good b/c the next bar went
lower on increasing red volume. Is this bar not an FTT but a flaw?
15:25 FTT or Dip?
Quote from The Swordsman:
I shorted at 15:25 bar and thought everything was good b/c the next bar went lower on increasing red volume. Is this bar not an FTT but a flaw?
__________________
Quote from The Swordsman:
Hey Spyder,
I shorted at 15:25 bar and thought everything was good b/c the next bar went lower on increasing red volume. Is this bar not an FTT but a flaw?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: 15:25 FTT or Dip?
I see the dip, thank you. I guess the way to go about it is to see that 15:25
bar has very low volume and think "flaw", so dont get short. Then see what plays
out and then determine what flaw we have?
Or if I was short before the bar closed and then saw that volume was that low, I
should just get out.
Quote from Spydertrader:
See my chart above. Yes, its a flaw - one big Dip.
- Spydertrader
order amongst chaos
Quote from The Swordsman:
Hey Spyder,
I shorted at 15:25 bar and thought everything was good b/c the next bar went lower on increasing red volume. Is this bar not an FTT but a flaw?
Today's chart...
Regarding the post about 'Harmonics', I think today I saw 'square waves'
everywhere
Spyder is it really this? or I'm seeing things ?
Best Regards...
(uhhhhh!! "I see dead people")
15:20 provided a volitility expansion, next bar could have very well been an
FTT. I'm not sure I understand what you mean. I do see now that the bar itself
was very low on volume and I should have seen this as a potential flaw.
Quote from ang_99:
We were traversing from the LTL to the RTL so this couldnt have been a FTT anyway. (on the green channel)
Quote from The Swordsman:
15:20 provided a volitility expansion, next bar could have very well been an FTT. I'm not sure I understand what you mean. I do see now that the bar itself was very low on volume and I should have seen this as a potential flaw.
Price went from the RTL to the LTL creating a volitility expansion at 15:20.
The next bar failed to traverse higher (FTT) potentially. However, as was
pointed out by Bundlemaker and Spyder, this was a FLAW. Had it not been a flaw,
we would have had an FTT.
I think you must be misunderstanding what I'm saying, perhaps Spydertrader can
comment and straighten this whole mess up
Quote from ang_99:
A FTT can only happen when price is going from the RTL to the LTL. I think you were playing a retrace of the trend and I guess anticipated a BO.
Ok, I understand what you are saying now, however I dont think this is always
the case. I see FTT's that do not have to come from a RTL to LTL traverse. I
think it also depends on how many times you update or fan out a channel perhaps.
Quote from ang_99:
A FTT can only happen when price is going from the RTL to the LTL and fails. I think you were playing a retrace of the trend and I guess anticipated a BO.
Quote from The Swordsman:
I understand what you are saying now, however I dont think this is always the case. I see FTT's that do not have to come from a RTL to LTL traverse. I think it also depends on how many times you update or fan out a channel perhaps.
Me too
No worries, I dont care who is wrong or right, hopefully we will learn
something.
Quote from ang_99:
I don't think thats true but I'll let spyder comment cuz I'm new at this...
Hey Spyder, I noticed you drew an upchannel starting w/ Pt 1 at 10:55, but
then later in the day a very similar situation sets up but you decided to use
the 14:30 bar as your Pt 1 as opposed to the 14:35 bar.
Was there a specific reason you chose this? They seem to be so similar but maybe
I'm missing something thats important. Does it have anything to do with the last
part of the 14:30 bar rising higher and closing the way it did?
Also why did you mark the blue channel "BO" shouldnt that have been a "FBO" since no complete bar resided outside of the RTL. after the 14:30 bar... Or is it that the bar only needs to close below the RTL for it to be considered a BO..?
Quote from The Swordsman:
Ok, I understand what you are saying now, however I dont think this is always the case. I see FTT's that do not have to come from a RTL to LTL traverse. I think it also depends on how many times you update or fan out a channel perhaps.
ib/qt vs. esig/qc
I usually ignore this type of post, but here I find myself making one of my
own...
Two left charts are QT (probably w/ IB), and two right charts are esignal and
QC.
Don't think it would have affected any trades, but still should make anyone
using esig/qc think twice about paying $100+/mo for a feed that often leaves out
50% of the volume...
Yes, exactly, which is what happened on the 15:25 bar (started lower,
traversed higher). Following a volitility expansion on the previous bar, I saw
this bar as potential FTT. As pointed out, the extraordinary low volume made it
more likely to be a flaw.
Quote from Aurum:
A FTT can ONLY occur on a right to left traverse. However, this doesn't require price to START at the right trendline.
Hi guys,
The way I usually look at it is there are two prominent flavors of FTT.
There are the forest FTTs, where a dominant traverse, as a whole, fails to make
it to its pre-established LTL. If there is a volatility expansion, there can
only be this kind of FTT after an actual retrace has occurred and a new dominant
traverse has begun.
Then there is the tree or traverse FTT, in which a bar simply fails to reach the
LTL, even if it did reach the LTL on the prior bar. This is then followed by
decreasing volume of the opposite color and a retrace.
To me, the former suggests that there is a greater chance of a channel BO, X2X,
or roll-over after the retrace, while the latter just tells me that this
dominant traverse has finished (and nothing more, unless gaussians say so).
Of course, these are just the conclusions drawn from my own observations and I'm
willing to consider those of others'.
Quote from Aurum:
A FTT can ONLY occur on a right to left traverse. However, this doesn't require price to START at the right trendline. I recommend that you go back and review the journal again, as this question has been answered before and you will gain some good insight with additional review.
As an aside, it seems like you are simulating. If you haven't previously had good success trading futures (or stocks) with another method, I further recommend that you stop simulating and simply observe price action on the ES and YM. The simulator takes your focus away from where it should be, and puts it on PnL.
I hope this helps, but as always, YMMV.
-Au
Questions and Answers
Quote from The Swordsman:
I see the dip, thank you. I guess the way to go about it is to see that 15:25 bar has very low volume and think "flaw", so dont get short. Then see what plays out and then determine what flaw we have?
Quote from ang_99:
We were traversing from the LTL to the RTL so this couldn't have been a FTT anyway. (on the green channel)
Quote from Pepe:
Regarding the post about 'Harmonics', I think today I saw 'square waves' everywhere
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Hey Spyder, I noticed you drew an up channel starting w/ Pt 1 at 10:55, but then later in the day a very similar situation sets up but you decided to use the 14:30 bar as your Pt 1 as opposed to the 14:35 bar.
Was there a specific reason you chose this? They seem to be so similar but maybe I'm missing something thats important. Does it have anything to do with the last part of the 14:30 bar rising higher and closing the way it did?
Quote from ang_99:
Also why did you mark the blue channel "BO" shouldn't that have been a "FBO" since no complete bar resided outside of the RTL. after the 14:30 bar... Or is it that the bar only needs to close below the RTL for it to be considered a BO..?
__________________
Re: ib/qt vs. esig/qc
Quote from Pr0crast:
I usually ignore this type of post, but here I find myself making one of my own...
Two left charts are QT (probably w/ IB), and two right charts are esignal and QC.
Don't think it would have affected any trades, but still should make anyone using esig/qc think twice about paying $100+/mo for a feed that often leaves out 50% of the volume...
I've also
had a situation where the delayed data from Yahoo showed up before that of
Qcharts, and even when QCharts finally backfilled the data was wrong. I'm
definitely in the market for something different, but I'd like it to have
fundamental data. If I have to, I'll get separate services, but what a pain...
Re: Questions and Answers
Quote from Spydertrader:
And unless the Square Wave Odd Harmonic Price formation occurred within a flaw, what happened to Price? Could you 'see' the Odd Harmonic before you viewed that bar as an FTT?
Re: Today's ES
How come the 11:35 bar is not considered an FTT? It doesnt make it to the LTL
and the next bar is lower on decreasing red which is what we'd want to see.
Would you mind walking through these few bars?
Quote from Spydertrader:
06-04-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Attached as promised is the xls which will work with a few setup tweaks.
Steps:
1. Save xls to hardrive
2. Launch IB
3. Make sure IB under configure>>api>>enable dde and enable active-x are turned
on
4. open xls and when prompted to update just say no
5. type in your IB user id in cell B47 and make sure B48 is the current contract
and hit enter
6. save the xls
7. click on the setup button
8. ib data should start to update.
the next time you open the xls you can now chose update.
For anyone else using other brokers or data providers please modify and post the
code here so we can all share.
best of luck
Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
How come the 11:35 bar is not considered an FTT? It doesnt make it to the LTL and the next bar is lower on decreasing red which is what we'd want to see.
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Spyder, so when you say
"When Price exits the blue up channel on decreasing Volume, the market
has spoken loud and clear: We have drawn the channel
incorrectly."
is this why you drew the new green channel? If so, how did you come up with your
point 1 in the green channel? Why did you decide the 11:15 bar was your point 1
not the 11:00 bar?
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from ang_99:
is this why you drew the new green channel? If so, how did you come up with your point 1 in the green channel? Why did you decide the 11:15 bar was your point 1 not the 11:00 bar?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
As to why I choose to 'fan' from a Point Three, review this post.
- Spydertrader [/B]
domib
Wonderful Mikey, thanks for sharing.
Good trading to all!
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
So, in essence, we should have taken the 11:35 bar short on the potential FTT
and then waited to see PRV of the next bar (11:40) as lower and see price
exiting the channel on less volume, and at this point, realize that we do not
have an FTT but rather an incorrect channel.
I really cant see not taking this trade initially as I dont know my channel is
incorrect until after the fact, I guess the key is to see that price exited on
dec red vol which is indicative of an incorrect channel.
Thanks!
Quote from Spydertrader:
See Attached.
We begin to think we see an FTT on the 11:35 Bar as Price Fails To Traverse to the Left Trend Line. In addition, we see (at the 11:40 Bar) decreasing red Volume which appears to confirm our hypothesis. When Price exits the blue up channel on decreasing Volume, the market has spoken loud and clear: We have drawn the channel incorrectly.
Our job now involves finding the correct channel. Since we would need to 'fan' out our current (blue) channel in an effort to match our channel to the Gaussian (as the 11:40 bar approaches its close), we may still see 11:35 as an FTT and the 11:40 now as an FBO. As the 11:45 bar opens and we note initially increasing black volume as Price begins to move higher, we begin to think our 11:35 - 11:45 bars have formed a Dip (yellow highlight), rather than an FTT. As time moves forward, we see PRV saying we should end with decreasing Volume effectively ending our view of the bars in question as a Dip. As the 11:45 bar approaches its close, we note the telltale Volume signature (Red Volume Circle) of an HVS (Green Highlight). As Price exits the (blue) up Channel (11:50 Bar) on increasing red Volume and forms an equivalent low to the 11:40 bar, we easily see we now have formed a lateral channel out of our HVS. Since we know lateral channels come from Even Harmonics which signals continuation, we need to make sure we know from which direction we entered the channel, in order to anticipate our exit from the lateral channel. As Volume continues to drop off during the 11:55 and 12:00 bars, our HVS lateral transitions into a CCC lateral (Pink Price Highlight / Light Blue Volume Highlight). Still a lateral, and therefore still Even Harmonics, we look back to the 11:35 Bar to see that Price entered this channel from below, so we can expect Price to exit our channel to the high side.
I hope you find the above information helpful.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from Spydertrader:
See Attached.
snip... we need to make sure we know from which direction we entered the channel, in order to anticipate our exit from the lateral channel.
snip... we look back to the 11:35 Bar to see that Price entered this channel from below, so we can expect Price to exit our channel to the high side...
Greetings-
I've been feeling the need to follow along with this thread lately, but need a
hand with something.
Qcharts can't tell me the symbol for the es. I have ES07M in a quote sheet, and
I get numbers into that, but no charts. What am I doing wrong?
Thx in advance..
Quote from Haroki:
Greetings-
I've been feeling the need to follow along with this thread lately, but need a hand with something.
Qcharts can't tell me the symbol for the es. I have ES07M in a quote sheet, and I get numbers into that, but no charts. What am I doing wrong?
Thx in advance..
Are you subscribed to CME?
Yeah, I've used that, and emailed Qcharts, but they are clueless as to what
I'm asking.
ES07M gets me info into the quoteshhet , but nothing in a chart.
I'm stumped.But thx anyways.
H
Quote from Haroki:
Qcharts can't tell me the symbol for the es. I have ES07M in a quote sheet, and I get numbers into that, but no charts. What am I doing wrong?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES
Quote from R/R:
Now one could say 12:15 became an FBO and over-rode the exit logic. Comments?
Your brain knows how to
view this stuff (unconsciously), but hasn't yet allowed you (consciously) to
make the connection just yet. You are getting close.__________________
here is my morning.
I have been unable to follow due to work for a few weeks.
Off to work.
forgot the chart
Re: ib/qt vs. esig/qc
Quote from Pr0crast:
I usually ignore this type of post, but here I find myself making one of my own...
Two left charts are QT (probably w/ IB), and two right charts are esignal and QC.
Don't think it would have affected any trades, but still should make anyone using esig/qc think twice about paying $100+/mo for a feed that often leaves out 50% of the volume...
__________________
HAVE STOP img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif" WILL TRADE
Can we view the 11:00 bar as decreasing red? The bar went lower and vol decreased, however I have the bar closing at the same priceas the previous bars close. On esignal this shows black vol and a black bar even though my brain is saying this bar is red.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Can we view the 11:00 bar as decreasing red? The bar went lower and vol decreased, however I have the bar closing at the same priceas the previous bars close. On esignal this shows black vol and a black bar even though my brain is saying this bar is red.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Yeah, i dont just look at the closes either however the situation also has
the bar going lower in the first half and then shooting back up to close fairly
strong in the 2nd half so there is that context to deal with as well.
Quote from bundlemaker:
I did Steve. I don't just look at the closes, I look at the context: that is, bar overlap, general price movement, etc. THis is how I understand forced gaussian synching.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Right Click on the Symbol in the Quote Sheet. Sellect New then Bar Chart. Make sure you have enabled Futures Data through Qcharts (via your account).
- Spydertrader
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
Can we view the 11:00 bar as decreasing red? The bar went lower and vol decreased, however I have the bar closing at the same priceas the previous bars close. On esignal this shows black vol and a black bar even though my brain is saying this bar is red.
__________________
For price to BO a RTL, and officially end that channel, it must do so on increased vol on 1 ES bar AND form another 1 bar which also closes outside that RTL correct?
Quote from The Swordsman:
For price to BO a RTL, and officially end that channel, it must do so on increased vol on 1 ES bar AND form another 1 bar which also closes outside that RTL correct?
__________________
My Es 5 min chart for today.
Today's Chart...
Regards,
TODAY'S CHART
Today's ES Chart
06-04-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-05-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Today's ES Chart
How can you label a "BO" on that red down channel when price clearly exits on
less buying volume (bars in question are 12:30/12:35). I see price leaving that
channel but not on any surge of buying yet you label it a BO. I am confused
Quote from Spydertrader:
06-04-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
My guess is that price did leave the channel on dec vol so THAT particular
sloped down channel isnt right HOWEVER there is still a much larger down channel
in play?
Quote from windwallker:
How can you label a "BO" on that red down channel when price clearly exits on less buying volume (bars in question are 12:30/12:35). I see price leaving that channel but not on any surge of buying yet you label it a BO. I am confused
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from windwallker:
How can you label a "BO" on that red down channel when price clearly exits on less buying volume (bars in question are 12:30/12:35). I see price leaving that channel but not on any surge of buying yet you label it a BO. I am confused
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from windwallker:
How can you label a "BO" on that red down channel when price clearly exits on less buying volume (bars in question are 12:30/12:35). I see price leaving that channel but not on any surge of buying yet you label it a BO. I am confused
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
.
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from windwallker:
How can you label a "BO" on that red down channel when price clearly exits on less buying volume (bars in question are 12:30/12:35). I see price leaving that channel but not on any surge of buying yet you label it a BO. I am confused
__________________
Today's ES. For a refreshing change, this week, I'm only annotating and watching (no simming). I want to reset my mental framework.
Had to do most of today in hindsight. Looked pretty nice.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Excellent explanation. Thank you for taking the time.
Quote from Spydertrader:
As others (including yourself) have noted, we see Price exit (and remain outside of) the red channel. If Price exits a channel determines whether or not we have a BO or an FBO. How (on increasing or decreasing Volume) Price exits a channel determines of we have a trend in the opposite direction, or if we have a need to 'fan' out our current channel and continue the current trend.
- Spydertrader
Ok, my first try at annotating a 5 min. I've been hesitant, for fear of
having a brain aneuryism dealing with a 5 min timeframe, but seemed pretty
boring TBH.
Be gentle on me...
Quote from Haroki:
Ok, my first try at annotating a 5 min. I've been hesitant, for fear of having a brain aneuryism dealing with a 5 min timeframe, but seemed pretty boring TBH.
Be gentle on me...
Quote from Haroki:
Ok, my first try at annotating a 5 min. I've been hesitant, for fear of having a brain aneuryism dealing with a 5 min timeframe, but seemed pretty boring TBH.
Be gentle on me...
Wise words from chat
Spydertrader (Jun 5, 2007 2:30:08 PM) edited
just because you reach a conclusion in one moment, doesn't mean you can't have a
different conclusion in the next moment based on continuously updated (and new)
information.
===
Two famous quotes come to mind:
"When the facts change, I change my mind – what do you do, sir?"
- J.M. Keynes
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for
sure that just ain't so."
- Mark Twain
This is the essential mindset required to develop the facility to act
immediately when the conclusion from your analysis of the
latest data changes. It's hard to develop this skill but well worth
learning. The market gives you just enough time, normally.
Re: Wise words from chat
Quote from PointOne:
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."
- Mark Twain
Quote from Aurum:
Hi Haroki -
Take a look at the bars at 13:10 and 13:40. You have a pt 2 at 13:10, so this is going to also be the peak for your up channel gaussian. 13:40 is your pt 3, so this will be the matching trough for that gaussian. Take the top of the volume bar @ 13:10 and draw a line to the top of the volume bar @ 13:40 - this will give you the decreasing side (because it's negative [downwards] sloping) of your channel gaussian.
This is how you want to match up your gaussians to your channels.
Your channels look good - you will have the gaussians down very shortly!
(I'm just giving a concrete example of what the Pr0meister is saying.)
-Au
Hey Guys,
I just wanted to review some notes (it can never hurt) and I'm going to go
through the notes on Hershey's "Channels for Building Wealth" and go over this
thread on ET again.
My question is, does anyone have a link or a specific section on Gaussians?
Chart for this morning.
regards,
Ivo
Is this right do far?
I'm finding building channels very easy in real time, but the volume gaussians,
not so easy. I'm typically readjusting the volume line several times as info
comes available.
Is this acceptable at the beginner level?
Spydertrader, would you mind explaining the situation from 12:20-12:35? I see
a volitilty push the LTL at 12:20 and then we see a potential FTT on the next
bar. But that next bar is black, not red so I though that we must have a
flaw(?), but then price slams down harder on the next bar.
If I had been short from the potential FTT bar, I think I would have been
frightened by the black bar. Should I have been?
Quote from Churn2Learn:
Hey Guys,
I just wanted to review some notes (it can never hurt) and I'm going to go through the notes on Hershey's "Channels for Building Wealth" and go over this thread on ET again.
My question is, does anyone have a link or a specific section on Gaussians?
Quote from windwallker:
If I had been short from the potential FTT bar, I think I would have been frightened by the black bar. Should I have been?
Hmm, very interesting point. I wonder if thats the real FTT and not the 12:25
bar. I saw the 12:25 bar as an FTT b/c it never touched the LTL but you are
right, it never even tried, it just went straight down!
So if the 12:30 bar was the real FTT the next bar was red and down (and
increasing) which must make us happy if we are short and then see this play out.
Quote from palinuro:
According to my data (IB), the 12:25 bar didn't try to go back up, so it began a straightforward nondominant traverse. The black 12:30 bar did try, but on anemic volume, so I saw that as an FTT.
Quote from windwallker:
Spydertrader, would you mind explaining the situation from 12:20-12:35? I see a volitilty push the LTL at 12:20 and then we see a potential FTT on the next bar. But that next bar is black, not red so I though that we must have a flaw(?), but then price slams down harder on the next bar.
If I had been short from the potential FTT bar, I think I would have been frightened by the black bar. Should I have been?
I found a good example of a common situation where I become confused about
which direction represents Continuation and which represents Change.
The annotated FTT is followed by declining black as expected. The last bar
shown, and the next in sequence, shows a declining red inside bar. The beginning
of a flaw of some kind I would assume. At my level a flaw represents
continuation.
But wait. Continuation of what? Continuation of the non dominant traverse which
began with the FTT? Or continuation of the dominant traverse, which is after
all, still dominant?
There's no right or wrong answer based on what happened with the next bar. I
won't say now or later. I'm just looking for the general principle here, ie.
which direction represents continuation if one is trading FTT to FTT?
Any help appreciated,
Esteban
Quote from EstebanUno:
I found a good example of a common situation where I become confused about which direction represents Continuation and which represents Change.
The annotated FTT is followed by declining black as expected. The last bar shown, and the next in sequence, shows a declining red inside bar. The beginning of a flaw of some kind I would assume. At my level a flaw represents continuation.
But wait. Continuation of what? Continuation of the non dominant traverse which began with the FTT? Or continuation of the dominant traverse, which is after all, still dominant?
There's no right or wrong answer based on what happened with the next bar. I won't say now or later. I'm just looking for the general principle here, ie. which direction represents continuation if one is trading FTT to FTT?
Any help appreciated,
Esteban
Quote from EstebanUno:
I found a good example of a common situation where I become confused about which direction represents Continuation and which represents Change.
Quote from palinuro:
confusion
__________________
Quote from Pr0crast:
My thoughts are that that is an FTT alright, but not by much. There will probably be another 1 or 2 attempts on the LTL at least before the trend rolls over. A "weak," or "close" ftt like that I would lean towards considering a sign of change more on the traverse level than on the channel level.
YM 2 minute chart. what it looks like up till now
Will someone help me understand this please? I'm working my way through the
channels document as well as reading this thread and the equities threads. I
have far to go still in this and the other threads - but at the same time I have
also read quite a bit. There is a lot of material!
My question comes from page 75 in the Channels_for_BW_v2.2.pdf there is the
following sentence and it refers to the graphic.
The sentence is:
"The slow pace of the YM is typical of the HVS circumstance and the Gaussian
shifted from R/B to B/R during the stall ending trade 4 and beginning trade
5."
and the graphic is:
In particular I am having difficulty with seeing the R/B and B/R's, the
transition it refers to and what it would look like if you were to draw in the
volume gaussians on this graphic (my assumption is that this sentence is
referring to R/B and B/R as volume gaussians).
Would someone do me a favor and consider drawing in the volume gaussians on this
graphic and reposting it?
Or perhaps there is some other material for me to reference that talks in detail
about the finer points of drawing volume gaussians for those that seem to *see*
these when they are very obvious.
I'm finding that I'm extremely weak in this area (learning about the volume
gaussians, annotating them, etc.)
I have the forestgaussians.pdf document and the gaussian drill
document and they are certainly helpful but I think I need more. Perhaps a
series of posts that work through real world examples and questions people have
for learning if they have it right or not. There are many posts in the various
threads and I apologize that I haven't come to them yet and that I may be
asking the obvious. If anyone has a pointer to more helpful information in this
area then I would greatly appreciate your sharing it with me.
Thanks,
- David I
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...608#post1492608
Go there for some good resources pertaining to gaussians.
Quote from David I:
If anyone has a pointer to more helpful information in this area then I would greatly appreciate your sharing it with me.
Thanks,
- David I
YMM7 2MIN , and now
Sucks to be me...
Qcharts crashed at 15:30, so lost all my annotations.
Anyways, synched up and did what I could/
Here's what I caught of the market today.
Those two crazy volume bars on my chart are due to QT crashing then, not a data
feed problem.
Today's chart
Regards,
Quote from Pr0crast:
Here's what I caught of the market today.
Those two crazy volume bars are due to QT crashing then, not a data feed problem.
Qcharts
Quote from Haroki:
My problem was an internal program error. Says it couldn't read some memory gizmo.
__________________
Today's ES Chart
06-06-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
ES 6 Jun 07
Today's YM Chart
06-06-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Gaussians
Quote from David I:
If anyone has a pointer to more helpful information in this area then I would greatly appreciate your sharing it with me.
__________________
Spyder, would you mind to explain the differences you saw for this two flaws
: Dip and Stall
At left you have a Dip, an inside bar low on volume. At right you have a 'stall'
an inside bar low on volume also.
Thank you very much,
Quote from Pepe:
Would you mind to explain the differences you saw for this two flaws : Dip and Stall
__________________
Re: Qcharts
Quote from Spydertrader:
Wait! Set Qcharts to open on the last workspace used. Restart it. You may not need to reinstall. It might only mean Qcharts didn't update the files. This often happens when Qcharts loggs into a mucked up server.
- Spydertrader
Haroki,
I don't use QC anymore but I'm pretty sure there is a way to set it to
automatically save the workspace as you go. That may help you in the future...
Pr0crast
Harmonics
I had a discussion with Spyder earlier about Harmonics.
Here is my chart illustrating what I think odd harmonics are.
Good trading to all
hamonics
This is what Spyder said about harmonics. How good is this?
Some of you will find this useful about harmonics.
Good trading to all
Quote from Pr0crast:
Haroki,
I don't use QC anymore but I'm pretty sure there is a way to set it to automatically save the workspace as you go. That may help you in the future...
Pr0crast
Quote from Haroki:
Yes, it asks you if you want to save the last workspace and reopen in ti next time, but the prob I've been having 86's that idea and just closes without giving me the option of saving. It just closes and that's it. Start over.
But I reinstalled it already, so we'll see if it improves the situation.
Thx for the help.
H
Haroki,
Pr0crast is correct, see below for auto save setting. You could also hit ctrl -
s after you make changes.
-Mike
Heres a log of the Channeltraders chat room today. Spyder was kind enough to
drop in and do some coaching. It is timestamped so you can track it to the
charts. Lots of interesting information, especially concerning harmonics. I have
deleted the non pertinent stuff and some discussion about our favorite ET
characters.
p.s. I saved this into text to get it on here but it was spaced and readable.
Somehow it has been converted back to solid text in the process. I hope someone
knows how to convert it back.
Hey Bearbelly,
Sorry I missed Spyder today.
If you save the attachment to your computer and open it up there, it seems to
have the proper format.
Thanks for the text bb.
-Mike
Here is the Bearbelly chat text in a different format.
-Mike
::brain freeze::
should not have read that chat after a couple margaritas. sounds very
enlightening though, will re-read in the AM
Quote from Bearbelly:
Heres a log of the Channeltraders chat room today. Spyder was kind enough to drop in and do some coaching. It is timestamped so you can track it to the charts. Lots of interesting information, especially concerning harmonics. I have deleted the non pertinent stuff and some discussion about our favorite ET characters.
...
(4:16 PM) Spydertrader: now review charts for the last week and watch what happens,
...
Re: Harmonics
Quote from callmate:
I had a discussion with Spyder earlier about Harmonics.
Here is my chart illustrating what I think odd harmonics are.
Good trading to all
Rollover Reminder
Just a reminder for all those following along: Thursday (06-07-2007) is
Rollover Day. make sure to switch your charting, STR / SQU, T & S, DOM etc.
to the most current contracts: ES07U and YM07U (September Expiry).
- Spydertrader
__________________
At the end of of the gaussian...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ians#post573658
(a golden post worth framing)
Quote from Avi 8:
Haroki,
Pr0crast is correct, see below for auto save setting. You could also hit ctrl - s after you make changes.
-Mike
Re: Gaussians
Quote from Spydertrader:
Click Here to locate every instance where I mentioned the word Gaussians.
- Spydertrader
Re: Rollover Reminder
Quote from Spydertrader:
Just a reminder for all those following along: Thursday (06-07-2007) is Rollover Day. make sure to switch your charting, STR / SQU, T & S, DOM etc. to the most current contracts: ES07U and YM07U (September Expiry).
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Rollover Reminder
Quote from Pr0crast:
When should one actually make the switch? The june contract so far has 2x the volume this morning as the new one.
__________________
Does anyone use Spyder's method on the Euro FX?
One area where I seem to lack some skill is seeing what's going on at RTL's.
This am's 10:35 bar is a case in point. Actually, it's not so much seeing, but
rather knowing what and when to do it.
The setup usually goes something like this: I get an FTT (like 10:20) and price
retraces to the RTL. At the RTL sometimes price just rejects the line instantly,
like it did on the 10:35 bar. However, very often, price will pause, sometimes
moving laterally for one or even more bars.
I'm not confident about knowing how to reverse back to the previous trend on
FBO's. At this point in time, it is about the last place I tend to get "whip
sawed".
In this morning's example, I think I glimpsed a DOM wall which was very
fleeting, as price moved off so swiftly, so perhaps the DOM (with appropriate
experience) will provide the solution.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Spidertrader,
When you talked about harmonics, you mentioned the double top. On the YM today,
would you consider that one of the examples at 11:36am?
Thanks.
Quote from Tums:
At the end of of the gaussian...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...ians#post573658
(a golden post worth framing)
Odd Harmonics
Quote from Churn2Learn:
When you talked about harmonics, you mentioned the double top. On the YM today, would you consider that one of the examples at 11:30 AM?
__________________
Quote from bundlemaker:
One area where I seem to lack some skill is seeing what's going on at RTL's. This am's 10:35 bar is a case in point. Actually, it's not so much seeing, but rather knowing what and when to do it.
__________________
Re: Odd Harmonics
Quote from Spydertrader:
Square Wave Odd Harmonics requires two connecting bars to have equal highs or equal lows. According to my charts, I did not have such an environment at 11:36 AM.
- Spydertrader
ST, I saw what i thought was an odd harmonic (12:20/25 bars )but then next bar spiked up above the highs. What did you see and what would you do in this situation?
Re: Re: Odd Harmonics
Quote from Churn2Learn:
Here, this is what I got at 11:36am on YM on esignal. Maybe esignal is different from your chart.
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
ST, I saw what i thought was an odd harmonic (12:20/25 bars )but then next bar spiked up above the highs. What did you see and what would you do in this situation?
__________________
My midday effort so far.
Anticipating FTT's FBO's is getting easier already, as is following the volume
Gaussians.
Now I just hope my comp doen't freeze up again - LOL...
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
ST, I saw what i thought was an odd harmonic (12:20/25 bars )but then next bar spiked up above the highs. What did you see and what would you do in this situation?
Quote from bi9foot:
(if we ignore the fact that they form a Dip)
__________________
I'm finding that when I use it correctly, the DOM adds a very unique level of comfort to a trade. When I'm at a gaussian trough, perhaps a potential PT3, and an 800 vs. 80 wall forms underneath the PT3, its very comforting getting an entry that almost negates the spread. Also makes a lot of washes a lot more obvious if an opposing wall forms.
Did not rollover as of yet. todays ymm7 around 2:50 today. . . so far looks like this
ym m7 . this is how the day is wrapping up on ym. i still have to rollover.
Today's Es. Whew!
Gaussians are inconsistent, I'll study them later. It's a result of reading the
"Golden Post", where JH says every flaw, including hitches should be drawn in
the gaussians. Still digesting the idea.
Ok, so no problems today with the program.
Seemed pretty easy, hope I've got it right. Do my Gaussian lines look correct?
TIA
H
Oops
Past Posts
Quote from EstebanUno:
Gaussians are inconsistent, I'll study them later. It's a result of reading the "Golden Post", where JH says every flaw, including hitches should be drawn in the gaussians. Still digesting the idea.
__________________
Today's ES Chart
06-07-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-07-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
my es (didnt rollover yet)
2007-06-07 ES Video
For anyone wishing to study today's action on the ES chart, here's a 6x speed
video.
2007-06-07.ES.avi
Enjoy.
My chart for today
Quote from Pr0crast:
I'm finding that when I use it correctly, the DOM adds a very unique level of comfort to a trade. When I'm at a gaussian trough, perhaps a potential PT3, and an 800 vs. 80 wall forms underneath the PT3, its very comforting getting an entry that almost negates the spread. Also makes a lot of washes a lot more obvious if an opposing wall forms.
Quote from ivob:
I agree Pr0crast. I also feel very comfortable watching the DOM and keep on watching it for confirming and opposite signals the first few moments after taking the trade. If you're sharp chances for a loss are very low.
I did make the mistake though to keep on watching it. After price moves we move back to coarser tools, PRV, channels.
I do think (from observing) that the DOM only tells you where price will go for the next 2-3 ticks or so. However, on important moments (like after RTL break and we get VDU) these 2-3 ticks are exactly what it is about because other forces will do the rest after that.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from Pr0crast:
Seems to me that it is very important to get off the DOM as soon as the trade gets out of wash territory. It served its purpose, now look to the coarser tools.
__________________
Re: Past Posts
Quote from Spydertrader:
With all due respect to Jack Hershey and his generosity, Please do Not go and do this. When reading posts (especially old posts from Jack), take a moment to understand the context of the post. Jack's posts refer to SCT. We do not yet practice SCT in this Journal (See Syllabus).
Quote from Spydertrader:
Beginning Level traders on a Forest or Tree Level Resolution, Hold through flaws. As such, annotations should go through the flaws (unless the change in trend occurs on the flaw itself).
harmonics
For the first day of watching for harmonics and knowing what to look for it
was quite the inspiring experience. Both odd and even harmonics seemed to work
flawlessly(no pun intended).
While reviewing past charts I found a couple examples that I'd like to know how
to avoid getting on the wrong side. I see they are stalls and continuation is in
order but the harmonics might have made one reverse and miss some ticks. I
imagine the DOM might have made it clear at the time what the correct action
was. Is there something else that is a clue?
http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-06-...cs%206-5-07.png
Re: harmonics
Quote from ticktrade:
I imagine the DOM might have made it clear at the time what the correct action was. Is there something else that is a clue?
__________________
Harmonics
Wanted to ask wrt to harmonics.
I'm beginning to get my head around the Odd Square Harmonic
(OSH) and Odd Triangular Harmonic (OTH) visually on the chart.
ie DT/ DB, spikes.
However the Even Harmonic I'm not sure what to look for.
Would it be correct therefor to spot these in terms of what they are NOT.
In other words, if its not OSH or OTH (change) then it is likely to be Even
Harmonic (continuation).?
Again this is only visually on chart, ie DT DB and spikes.
Unfortunatley I haven't been able to get any of the Wall/DOM excel stuff to work
so unable to asses how these help.
Also if I may reference your comments about Flaws to ticktrade, above.
(note the significantly lower Volume levels in your second pink arrow). In all examples, the market is saying flaw
In your chart posted above, since you have no Flaws or Volatility Expansions prior to the alleged FTT
Re: Harmonics
Quote from FilterTip:
Is it that there are flaws but not the required volume/bar colour and levels following these flaws to validate an FTT ?
I have questions (Kind of the same question) about 2 bars from yesterday.
The 12:30 bar spiked up on increasing black volume, nicely confirming the prior
dip and bringing a smile to my face. But then it abruptly reversed on increasing
red volume, followed by a 6 point run. Was there any way of anticipating that
reversal, or is it just a matter of being alert and quick to act?
Similarly, the 2:35 bar spiked down on increasing red volume and BO'd the up
channel I had drawn in (2:15-2:25 bars). I sidelined, but then it reversed and
started a 6 point run up. Was there something that indicated it was forming a
new point 3 rather than beginning another run down?
Thanks for any help...
Quote from palinuro:
The 12:30 bar spiked up on increasing black volume, nicely confirming the prior dip and bringing a smile to my face. But then it abruptly reversed on increasing red volume, followed by a 6 point run. Was there any way of anticipating that reversal, or is it just a matter of being alert and quick to act?
Quote from palinuro:
Similarly, the 2:35 bar spiked down on increasing red volume and BO'd the up channel I had drawn in (2:15-2:25 bars). I sidelined, but then it reversed and started a 6 point run up. Was there something that indicated it was forming a new point 3 rather than beginning another run down?
__________________
Re: Harmonics
Quote from FilterTip:
However the Even Harmonic I'm not sure what to look for.
__________________
Chart for the morning.
regards.
Ivo
my midday effort. hard to decipher wht's going on right now.
oops again
Today's chart
Regards,
Today's ES Chart
06-08-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-08-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Looking back, it wasn't that difficult a day. But sitting through the grind could wear you out.
YMU7- ROLLED OVER TODAY. This ol' Jersey Boy going to head down Jersey Shore and soak up a lotta sun ! have a great weekend everyone!
Afternoon effort.
Had to restart again today, but was unrelated to my last thing.
Flaws = Hitches, Dips, Stalls, HVS and CCC
I have been reading various discussions between Spyder and some members of
this forum on Flaws. Here is my effort in defining them in Spyder's words.
When you believe you have an FTT forming in real time, only later to realize,
you really didn't have an FTT, you have encountered what Jack calls a flaw.
Hitch, Dip, Stall, HVS, CCC all represent different types of flaws - each having
various characteristics. A trader can quickly determine, by using PRV volume
levels, if one has actually encountered an FTT, or a flaw.
Flaws- : Almost all flaws have this real low volume (in opposite color) in
between two nice volume bars. Flaws only exist is dominant traverses. IF you
decide you have a flaw, you can expect NEXT bar to have BIG volume in OPPOSITE
direction, which means, if you wait to act, you'll be run over, hence why one
should take appropriate and TIMELY action.
(12:54 PM) Spydertrader: Hitches - small volatility LOW volume between nice
trending bars, often come in 3's meaning trend hitch, trend hitch, trend end
effects (FTT or lateral congestion (CCC)
Dip - IF you see flip flopping red black decreasing volume, what looks like a
soup bowl in an up trend and an upside down soup bowl in a down trend, it's a
DIP. A DIP could be longer than ONE bar. A Dip could be One bar, could be 2,
could be three, could be 4
even 4 bars... !
Stall - stall is the temporary slowing of price moment...so it is a one bar only
event.
" One should focus on 2 things during the day:
1. Check to see if you THINK you have an FTT, whether or not, you have already
seen a flaw OR a Volatility Expansion. If not either, chances are it isn't an
FTT but a flaw. Review your own charts to see how many traverses have an FTT
without either a flaw or a VE, you'll see, a very few.
2. Learn the differences between odd (both Square and triangular Wave) and Even
harmonic, together, these two pieces of information can produce very powerful
results."
Good trading to all
Re: Flaws = Hitches, Dips, Stalls, HVS and CCC
Quote from callmate:
2. Learn the differences between odd (both Square and triangular Wave) and Even harmonic, together, these two pieces of information can produce very powerful results."
Good trading to all
Re: Re: Flaws = Hitches, Dips, Stalls, HVS and CCC
Quote from PointOne:
I did some work on this stuff today.
__________________
Simple
Simple explanation ..
Therefore, Odd Harmonics = change
- Spydertrader
__________________
Ahhhhhhh... ahhhh...... AHA!
Re: Re: Flaws = Hitches, Dips, Stalls, HVS and CCC
Quote from PointOne:
I did some work on this stuff today.
Harmonics
Quote from Pepe:
Hi PointOne,
How can one see the A/D in the market ? and how can we apply the harmonics stuff to A/D ?
Sorry, maybe I misunderstood something, but your document was not clear to me.
You said 'Even Harmonic's = 'A/D Square Wave'...
Even Harmonics isn't "lateralization" = Continuation ?
Best Regards,
Re: Harmonics
Quote from PointOne:
so much for saw-tooth waves not being a good example, LOL
__________________
Re: Re: Harmonics
Quote from Spydertrader:
Perhaps, you could illuminate the terrain here and clarify why it appears you have conflicting information between Page Two (Square Waves) and Jack's Quotations (Page Five).
Again, I appreciate your work here, and want to avoid any perception of negativity.
Thanks in advance.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Harmonics
Quote from PointOne:
See the attached side by side comparison. I hope this clarifies things.
Quote from PointOne:
We are trying to detect when this underlying harmonic changes from odd to even.
__________________
Semi-off-topic, but here are a couple great (and relevant) quotes from an
article someone sent me.
We commonly hear the statistic that 90% of all traders ultimately fail. If this is so, it is not because they lack the right personality traits, indicator patterns, or software programs. Rather, they have failed to structure their learning to facilitate expertise.
Interestingly, chess experts do not have significantly more chess-playing experience than non-experts. Rather, a higher percentage of the experience of experts is spent in the systematic practice of various facets of the game.
The expert trader needs to be able to review and re-experience markets and systematically rehearse facets of trading performance: entering, managing, and exiting positions.
Perceptual Training
A piece that may help some conceptualize the skillsets Spyder is using to
make the market his dancing partner.
http://www.wired.com/science/discov...06/ff_mindgames
Re: Harmonics
Hi PointOne,
Thank you for your answer and all your posted work regarding Harmonics. It has
been a very interesting discussion so far.
Quote from PointOne:
I could only make it clearer by knowing where you are currently in understanding all this.
If you know which harmonic is dominating you can prepare for what comes next.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Harmonics
Quote from Spydertrader:
Thanks for the clarification. Your second .pdf confirmed what I already had thought - we were discussing two different fractals with respect to Harmonics (Channels / Trends vs. Bar to Bar).
Unfortunately, I still have difficulty placing your explanation into the context of continuation vs change.
You see, this is the part that throws me, and as a result, I must ask the question, why do we want (or need) to detect the underlying changes? If when looking at a channel or traverse, I see an Odd Harmonic, I think change or reverse. - whether Triangular (Spike) or Square (Double Top / Double Bottom). If, when looking at a channel or traverse, I see an Even Harmonic (Lateral movement), I think continuation or Hold. More importantly, the tools we have at our disposal signal these changes in advance of an FTT. Now, using your examples (and assuming I do know the exact moment the market changed from an Odd to an Even), how does this help me make money?
The nearest I can figure is during periods of (your) Square Wave Even Harmonic, I wouldn't want to be trading a retrace as the relative steepness of the channel / traverse renders the retrace of short duration at best and as lateral movement at worst.
Well, we already hold during periods of lateral Price movement, so again, how does knowing the exact moment of Harmonic Shift provide a benefit?
Clearly what you (and Jack) describe refers to the overall type of Market. Your examples provide a very clear picture in this regard.
In contrast, what I have outlined pertains to the Points of Change (or Continuation) within the overall market itself.
I ask these questions because I have never viewed the market (or Harmonics) as you (and Jack) have described, nor has my trading suffered because of it (or perhaps it has, and I simply didn't realize it). If such a view as you (and Jack) describe can provide an added benefit, then I look forward to learning something new.
. My intention rather was to
correct some misconceptions on this thread about what Jack had said regarding
harmonics and any perception that he had somehow got it wrong or was
deliberately misleading. This exercise has helped me learn what we do and don't
know of Jack's view on the cyclical nature of markets. You've met the guy -
didn't this stuff come up?
Although I have yet to see how such a view satisfies two fundamental requirements of this methodology,
1. Works on any fractal (not timeframe in this instance)
2. Differentiates between continuation and change
I do look forward to the continuing discussion. Thanks again for taking the time to answer my questions, and enjoy the remainder of the weekend.
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Harmonics
Quote from PointOne:
Wouldn't it be neat though if we nail it down, finally, here on this thread?
Quote from PointOne:
One important aspect of how it helps, I think, is in improving the trader's EQ - he has more support, comfort and confidence if he knows the market's mode (objectively) at any time. That's an intangible benefit which is worth dollars to any trader.
Quote from PointOne:
Your approach, which clearly and demonstrably works exceptionally well, is the What happens stuff. Jack is explaining How and Why the market moves as it does. What happens is sufficient to make tons of money, the other levels of knowledge (How and Why) add further confidence (and perhaps transferable confidence).
Quote from PointOne:
This is the context stuff which goes beyond pairs of bars or intra-bar analysis.
Quote from PointOne:
Which we could already identify without 1. knowing what causes them or 2. naming them.
Quote from PointOne:
I don't claim to be able to help you make more money
Quote from PointOne:
My intention rather was to correct some misconceptions on this thread about what Jack had said regarding harmonics and any perception that he had somehow got it wrong or was deliberately misleading. This exercise has helped me learn what we do and don't know of Jack's view on the cyclical nature of markets.
Quote from PointOne:
You've met the guy - didn't this stuff come up?
Quote from PointOne:
Thanks Spyder, sorry for the slow response – I was enjoying the weekend.
__________________
Midday effort
Do 13:45 and 13:50 ES bars represent an odd harmonic?
Spydertrader,
I have a question about odd harmonics double top/bottoms. I've just been trading
it when it forms on the ES. Is it safe to trade using that method on the YM too?
I've seen situations where it works on the YM and when it doesn't. So I'm
guessing it has a much lower success rate compared to using the method on ES.
Just wanted your opinion on the subject, thanks.
EOD -
For where I'm at in the learning curve, found the 1320-1520 time to be undoable.
So I sidelined and just quit annotating until I saw some definite direction near
the end...
To check myself I wrote down trades I would have taken, made 6 pts - but with
true slippage, who knows.. maybe 4 pts. 7 round trips overall, no SCT yet,
obviously....
Critiques appreciated.
H
Today was a nice day. I only got a little confused after 14h when for a while I wasn’t sure where the forest was heading. The bar at 14.10 and a couple after it had me puzzled for a while. But I got it in the end.
Today's ES Chart
06-11-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-11-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from windwallker:
Do 13:45 and 13:50 ES bars represent an odd harmonic?
Quote from Churn2Learn:
I have a question about odd harmonics double top/bottoms. I've just been trading it when it forms on the ES. Is it safe to trade using that method on the YM too? I've seen situations where it works on the YM and when it doesn't. So I'm guessing it has a much lower success rate compared to using the method on ES.
Quote from Haroki:
EOD -
For where I'm at in the learning curve, found the 1320-1520 time to be undoable. So I sidelined and just quit annotating until I saw some definite direction near the end...
Quote from Gregor_S:
Today was a nice day. I only got a little confused after 14h when for a while I wasn't sure where the forest was heading. The bar at 14.10 and a couple after it had me puzzled for a while. But I got it in the end.
__________________
TODAY'S CHART 5 MIN ES
I had difficulty identifying the correct Gaussian annotations in real time from
approx 2:15 until 3:30
PCT
I am still trying to get the Wall xls going.
Good chat today.
Some notes for review (mostly paraphrased or quoted from Spy):
Today's chart
Regards,
PS: remember to subtract 5 hours to get EDT time
Did anyone else have any issues with QT for their YM chart today? I had at
least 5 or 6 bars that I can remember where the volume was way off. Where on
Esignal I had 500 contracts trade for the 2 min bar but QT had like 1200+. Made
PRV difficult a few times today.
Just wondering if anyone else saw this?
Steve, sometimes if I have a computer glitch, whatever bar QT was working on
at the time will show go off the chart (shooting up to infinity). Was this what
you were experiencing?
For whatever reason, backfilling doesn't fix this. Just gotta ignore the bar and
proceed.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Steve, sometimes if I have a computer glitch, whatever bar QT was working on at the time will show go off the chart (shooting up to infinity). Was this what you were experiencing?
For whatever reason, backfilling doesn't fix this. Just gotta ignore the bar and proceed.
I've seen what you've described with the bar going to infinity. But today it
was less dramatic, the bars had differences of 400 lots and 500 lots etc. Enough
where I noticed something was odd but not so much where I knew it was a definite
glitch. A few times I wasnt sure if it was QT or Esignal that was wrong.
Anyways, fortunately it didnt affect the ES volume at all, just the YM.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Steve, sometimes if I have a computer glitch, whatever bar QT was working on at the time will show go off the chart (shooting up to infinity). Was this what you were experiencing?
For whatever reason, backfilling doesn't fix this. Just gotta ignore the bar and proceed.
Drill
Here's a drill if anyone is interested.
Watch the video and every couple seconds, go through the dialog in your head of
"what needs to come next for continuation or change?" This is from one of the
harder segments of the day, IMO. When you finish the drill, go read the chat log
(linked a few posts above) for what you should have been thinking, then
go back and watch the video a few more times to reaffirm this. The video is sped
up on purpose (before a batter steps up to the plate he always swings a weighted
bat first).
download
(looks best on 1600x1200, full screen)
14:40 bar
spyder,
your 14:40 bar is colored black yet the close was less than previous bar. Are
they colored by net change or open vs close? It makes a small difference but one
that would have been quickly corrected.
Thanks again for the killer chat session today. Amazing what can be accomplished
without the distraction of a hurricane.
Hopefully I have done this correctly. If so it represents not only my first
submission in my efforts to develop a working knowlege and dare I say mastery of
the JHM, but also my first attempt to draw Gaussians during real time.
Ofcourse I look forward to any comments to further my understanding of this
sojourn in which I have embarked on.
Who leads this dance?
Quote from Pr0crast:
Good chat today.
Some notes for review (mostly paraphrased or quoted from Spy):
).
Quote from guavaman:
Hopefully I have done this correctly. If so it represents not only my first submission in my efforts to develop a working knowlege and dare I say mastery of the JHM, but also my first attempt to draw Gaussians during real time.
Ofcourse I look forward to any comments to further my understanding of this sojourn in which I have embarked on.
Quote from Haroki:
EOD -
For where I'm at in the learning curve, found the 1320-1520 time to be undoable. So I sidelined and just quit annotating until I saw some definite direction near the end...
To check myself I wrote down trades I would have taken, made 6 pts - but with true slippage, who knows.. maybe 4 pts. 7 round trips overall, no SCT yet, obviously....
Critiques appreciated.
H
Re: Who leads this dance?
Quote from PointOne:
It's a dance, but I'm sorry to tell you guys: we're the ladies.
Comments
Quote from guavaman:
Of course I look forward to any comments to further my understanding
__________________
TO SpyderTrader...so you do not use MACD?...what indicators do you use?..what parameters in those indicators?...please explain price/volume and how you actually read it...thanks for answering these directly or direct me to "direct" answers about this and not to a link where you must sort through hundreds of replies to get the answers...thanks...I know many are probably wanting to ask the same questions...thanks for helping us all!!!!!!
Quote from increasenow:
TO SpyderTrader...so you do not use MACD?...what indicators do you use??..what parameters in those indicators?...
Quote from increasenow:
please explain price/volume and how you actually read it...?...
Quote from increasenow:
thanks for answering these directly or direct me to "direct" answers about this and not to a link where you must sort through hundreds of replies to get the answers...thanks....
Quote from increasenow:
I know many are probably wanting to ask the same questions...thanks for helping us all!!!!!!
__________________
I recommend you remove the MACD entirely from your charts...
Just as well Spyder, I never look at it anyway. Just seemed a comfort to have a
throw back indicator there
Gem of the day:
From ET Chat:
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:25:05 AM)
Biggest mistake beginning traders make isn't undercapitalization, or not having an edge. Biggest mistake is not having the ability to self analyze WHERE the errors come from...
Chart for the morning.
Very nice day. Caught all major FTT's. Of course should learn to hold longer.
The tip to 'not expect' an FTT too quickly before VE or flaw helps me a lot. I
know better when to expect it.
regards,
Ivo
Crosshairs for your PC.
Here is a useful program that adds crosshairs to your entir PC. Works great for
reviewing chart images like the ones posted here.
http://www.mlin.net/CrossHair.shtml
Great idea Mikey Trader!
Enjoying an AHA day today!
What I did to help me learn to trade what the market was telling me was to force
myself to only reverse. So I set up the sim and focused on what was coming next.
My goal wasn't to SCT or anything else but to really take all the market had to
offer and not 'settle' for less once I had a profitable trade.
I was forced to answer questions like: are you sure the long is over? Why? Are
you sure a short is a good trade right NOW? If this is a flaw you hold and not
chase every little move, are you sure this ISN'T a flaw?
Now I made alot of mistakes and I was late reversing, but so what. I know were
the mistakes are and can go back and review the screen recording to work though
them. I was completely calm except for the times I would see the PnL window on
the DOM I have setup. Might have to put a piece of tape over it.
When I stopped worrying about PnL and KNEW that I was keeping on the correct
side of the market, I didn't worry about the mistakes, and I found out that this
is very profitable even with the numerous mistakes I made today.
Good Trading to All,
Mike
ym wall
Day two...
Quote from Avi 8:
I was completely calm except for the times I would see the PnL window on the DOM I have setup. Might have to put a piece of tape over it.
Es chart for today.
I've been doing very well for a week as long as I stick to mostly end of bar
sweeps. Incorporating the finer tools has hurt more than helped, especially the
dom. Problem I'm having with the dom is that price usually breaks the wall that
made me take the trade after the initial bounce off the wall. So I have to view
it as continuation, and reverse back.
Best to all,
Esteban
I'm focusing more on forest resolution. I have a feeling I’m getting much better and more comfortable with it.
Quote from EstebanUno:
Es chart for today.
I've been doing very well for a week as long as I stick to mostly end of bar sweeps. Incorporating the finer tools has hurt more than helped, especially the dom. Problem I'm having with the dom is that price usually breaks the wall that made me take the trade after the initial bounce off the wall. So I have to view it as continuation, and reverse back.
Best to all,
Esteban
Today's ES Chart
06-12-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-12-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Anybody can make money in this market. It is how much you can extract from the pool that separates the pros from the boys.
Today's chart..
Avi, it's nice to see you're nailing this. Keep up the great work
One very famous writer from my country once said:
"Every path I chose in my life, I always find many stones in my way... One
day, I will build a King's castle with each one of them"
Of course, one can adapt "King's Castle" for whatever one wants (i.e: Islands
are a good substitute)
Best Regards to all,
Quote from Spydertrader:
You (and anyone else who feels they might benefit) should review today's Chat Room Log. - Spydertrader [/B]
click on that link and in the address bar change the date to whatever day you want to see.
Quote from Pr0crast:
I find that you will see walls get taken down all the time if you are watching the DOM when you shouldn't be. Are you doing your sweeps right (i.e. only look at the DOM when ES is at a TL, YM is at a TL, and STR/SQU is neutral)?
S.,
In reviewing chat logs and evesdropping on them, I notice you (and others)
sometimes comment:
"D:"
or make a comment that also ends: "D:"
What does this mean or is some secret yet unrevealed aspect of JH language being
communicated among the cognescenti
Doug
just a smiley face man
Quote from EstebanUno:
But even on the TLs, what tends to happen is that the Dom signal was a correct indication, but before it pans out it will bounce off my wall like I hoped, but then the wall will break down on the next attempt a minute or so later. Ultimately price will reverse like expected in the same ballpark area, but one or more whipsaws later.
Esteban
2 Odd Harmonics -> Even harmonic
From a conversation with Spyder.
I have captured a sequence of screen shots that show how 2 odd harmonics form an
even harmonic (which means continuation).
The basic sequence here would be going short when the DT (double top) forms and
then reversing again when the DB (double bottom) forms to get back to
continuation.
Help with FTT
Can anyone help me with being able to determine why this was not an FTT? At
the time it looked so obvious with the high volume and failure to traverse.
Quote from palinuro:
,,, but I just opened QuoteTracker and it has eaten all of my lines and notes, so I have nothing to post....
Re: Help with FTT
Quote from bdolnik:
Can anyone help me with being able to determine why this was not an FTT? At the time it looked so obvious with the high volume and failure to traverse.
Re: Help with FTT
I actually have a CO channel that the 11:35/11:40 bars BO of on inc vol so I
didnt see it as an FTT, plus I've been using Camtasia to record the DOM for the
entire day and during the first 30-45 secs of the 11:45 bar, you can see large
lots being lifted on the offer so buyers are still very aggressive.
Quote from bdolnik:
Can anyone help me with being able to determine why this was not an FTT? At the time it looked so obvious with the high volume and failure to traverse.
Quote from Tums:
Take a snap shot at a regular interval... so that they won't run away!
Re: Re: Help with FTT
Quote from Steve Tvardek:
I actually have a CO channel that the 11:35/11:40 bars BO of on inc vol so I didnt see it as an FTT, plus I've been using Camtasia to record the DOM for the entire day and during the first 30-45 secs of the 11:45 bar, you can see large lots being lifted on the offer so buyers are still very aggressive.
Re: Re: Re: Help with FTT
No, there is definitely a space btw the LTL and the top of the 11:40 bar. pt
1 11:05, pt 2 11:20, pt 3 11:35. The 11:40 bar should not be touching the LTL.
Thats how I had my channel drawn so thats why it doesnt touch the LTL.
It doesnt really matter though, I got to where I needed to be. A VE followed by
a flaw followed by an FTT based on my channel.
Quote from Churn2Learn:
Your channel must be wrong. The bar that you say is an FTT, I have it touching the LTL and there's no space between the bar and TL.
Quote from palinuro:
When it reverses later, is it against another wall? I've been finding the disappearance of significant DOM walls very useful, at least for about a point of movement. When a wall stays in place at a RTL I go more by how forcefully price tests the wall than the presence of the wall itself as a signal of whether it is likely to hold.
I had some good examples noted on yesterday's chart, but I just opened QuoteTracker and it has eaten all of my lines and notes, so I have nothing to post....
I look forward to them.
Chart for the morning.
Did most things right but got a little confused after 11:25 when things slowed
down.
regards,
Ivo
TODAY'S CHART 5 MIN ES
Day three of monitoring and annotating. If possible, I would very much appreciate any comments regarding the attached chart. I still have probs determining what is and isn't an FTT. Flaws are a different matter all together. Lastly, the Gaussians also present ongoing probs. They make sense to me, but I am sure they are not correct. Not the least b/c QT keeps wiping them out and I have to reinsert them. Consequently, most of them do not have the benefit of realtime annotation.
chart got lost during the "preview" period...
Today's ES Chart
06-13-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-13-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Gaussians
Quote from guavaman:
They make sense to me, but I am sure they are not correct.
__________________
Today's chart
My Today's Chart
Best Regards,
My ES chart for the day (6/13/07).
spooz
Got to the point where I'd like to start using Mak's PRV tool, but like
others with Excel 2003, I have cpu issues. Mak recommended changing the refresh
rate to every 2 seconds.
Anyone know how to do that?
And where?
TIA
H
Re: For Anyone Really Struggling
Quote from bundlemaker:
I’m pretty sure I have received a “religious experience”, although mine has been strung out over a few days.
This morning’s chart work made something very clear. Some days ago, Aurum suggested that I was predicting. I swore I wasn’t. Yet, a deeper part of me knew I was. This morning an epiphany occurred: I recognized PREDICTING behavior WHILE I WAS PREDICTING.
I believe once you feel what that’s like in your body, you will recognize it forever. Now, how do you go about recognizing it? There are probably as many ways as there are humans, but this was my process...
First, I needed to do EXACTLY as Spyder instructed, NO modifications whatsoever. This itself needs some time and patience to implement, as one’s ego certainly will try to combat this.
Second, just try to notice when fear, doubt, frustration, or the like; comes into your reality. Those emotions are clear, unambiguous signals that you ARE predicting. Period. No matter what you think is going on. Think about it, and you’ll realize this HAS to be true by definition.
To stop predicting is almost impossible, UNLESS you first notice you’re doing it. Then it’s easy. Very few people have been raised to notice their emotions, really notice them, in real time and acknowledge they are there. If this sounds too eastern for you, I’m sorry. I’ve crossed the bridge, been where it hurts, and I know the path to comfort. It’s in the noticing.
Once you notice, you do just one thing: get off the single data element you were stuck on! I promise you, if you were feeling those emotions I mentioned, you were stuck on a single data element. Jack talks about repeating these four steps: Monitor – Analyze – Decide – Act. I’ve heard him say it until I got nauseaus. Now I get why you do this. It keeps you out of prediction.
So, the sequence I’m suggesting is: notice negative emotions…. Get off single data element to full data set…. Analyze by asking yourself what should be next based on the “now” data set…. Is that happening?..... rinse and repeat.
.
Re: Forest and Trees
Quote from Spydertrader:
How do we determine which Forest to watch? We use the Gaussians as our guide. After the FTT in the Pink Down Channel, Price begins to move higher on decreasing black volume. Such a phenomenon occurs only in a down channel. Decreasing Black Volume in an Up channels cause lateral price movement.- Spydertrader
[/B]
I have been laboring under the idea that you draw a Gaussian to show the
price action's movement from one side of the channel to the next in the context
of volume. Dominant to nondormant. As a result, the Gaussian was to follow, for
example, the low to high (for an uptrend) of the price action on the volume
bars.
I now believe (hopefully correctly) that the Gaussians are to capture the low to
high volume in a (up trend) channel. This may or may not correspond directly
with the price action in the channel. So if the volume determines an down trend
channel, the Gaussians will track the highs and lows of the volume as it
operates inside the channel.
If I continue to be whacked out on this I look forward to a swift 2 X 4 to the
forehead
Gaussian Review
Please see the attached chart snippet. Note the area of Price inside the neon
green rectangle. Also note the Volume area highlighted in yellow.
Focus on the Olive Green up Channel. See how Price travels from the Low
(Point One) to the High (Red FTT Bar). The only "retrace" within this channel is
the Dip (circled). As such, we have Increasing black Volume across
this entire Traverse. Even though we have various Volume levels across the
entire traverse (See blue arrows in Volume), we annotate our Gaussian as
increasing from low to high (of Price) by drawing Increasing Black lines
above the Volume Bar. We do not care if the Gausssians cut through a Volume Bar.
We annotate Volume to make sure it matches how Price moves across a channel.
Focusing on the pink Down Channel, we see the Pink Channel as the Retrace
of the much larger Blue Channel. We see
decreasing Price within the Blue channel. As
such, we annotate our Gaussian as Decreasing Red
becuase it is the Non-Dominant Traverse of the Blue
Channel. Now, had we been focused on the Pink Channel watching for Price to
Break free of the Olive Up Channel, we would have annotated Decreasing
Red (as Price approached the right trend line of
the Olive Channel) to Increasing Red Volume (as
Price Breaks Out of the Olive Channel and continues in the Direction of the
New Dominant Trend bounded by the Pink Channel (See Pink Arrows in Volume
Area). Annotating in such a fashion shows the \/-R2R
Gaussian Shift (Again Pink Arrows).
One must match their Gaussians to their channels, and realize, when
shifting focus from Channels to Traverses, one must shift the Gaussian focus as
well.
I hope the above provides the clarity you seek.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Quote from EstebanUno:
Palinuro,
I don't know whether it reverses against another wall or not, as a rule. I'm inclined to say yes it does. But I haven't really noticed one way or the other.
How do you decide what is a forceful test? By how long price stays at the wall?
Maybe QT will be more friendly today and you'll have some examples to post.
Esteban
Greetings all,
I've recently began working to understand what spyder and Jack have generously
shared... and think I might have started to grasp Gaussians.
This is my understanding (may or may not be correct) of Gaussians. Often I find
rephrasing something helps test my understanding since it forces you to process
the information in order to rephrase. I appreciate any corrections.
(1)The color of the Gaussian (red, black) is dictated by the direction of the
*price* trend ?
(2)The slope of the Gaussian (rising slope, falling slope) is dictated by the
direction of *volume* trend ?
(3)The slope of the Gaussian changes when there is a change in the price channel
? Or in order of cause-effect, channel changes must be reflected in Gaussian
*slope* change ?
Thanks for any feedback.
Issue with IB and Excel DDE
A number of you are having trouble with the IB DOM I posted a couple of weeks
ago. I started getting the same problem. It just isn't updating anymore. I
contacted IB tech and they were no help. So if IB is reading this please help.
IB installs samples on your pc under director c:\jts and under the excel
directory you can try their sample to see if it works. I could not get theirs to
work.
If someone figures out what IB is doing please let us know.
Hm. I've been using PointOne's xls which still seems to work fine. I get a buttload of error messages when first opening it, but after I close all of them the DOM works like a charm.
I belive the Gaussians are correct until about 12:25 when all hell broke
loose. I do not have the full char up because QT wiped out the info, but not
before I cleverly took a snapshot of
. I was really mixed up around the
14:00 time period. Hopefully I ca determine the correct course from others that
will post.
TODAY'S CHART 5 MIN ES
Difficult Price Action
Attached, please find a chart snippet of the afternoon price action on the
ES. I found this area difficult for one very important reason - I missed
the Dip (highlighted in Yellow). Because I missed this first flaw, I went into
the lateral channel thinking I had an Harmonic effect taking place. The market
didn't have that at all. The next bar (highlighted Green) turns into a stall and
finally we have an FTT (also a Point Three) confirmed by the increasing
volume (black) after the 14:10 bar (circled red).
In addition, the YM showed a Point Three Up Channel during the entire period.
The lesson? Pay attention to what you know and start looking immediately
for something that was missed. While I didn't find the error until after the
fact, I am hoping others can learn from it, and avoid it in the future.
To see how everyone worked through the process of debriefing (in hindsight),
check out today's
Chat Room Log.
- Spydertrader
__________________
My es for today. I'm paying more attention to harmonics. Thanks Spy for your descriptions today.
Today's ES Chart
06-14-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
6-14 Chart
I was able to kind of work from home today so I was able to periodically
chart today in realtime. Most of the time I annotate hours after the markets are
closed. The charting process for me seems to slow down in realtime. I notice
myself getting impatient. Some of the gaussians I got mixed up on but I really
see how it can show when a BO is happening. I am playing catch up and am reading
through the journal pdfs that pr0crast put together.
Thank you all for this great Journal.
A good day is a day you learned something useful.
YMU7 2 minute chart. had a little trouble with internet cable data earlier , but all looks good now.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
YMU7 2 minute chart. had a little trouble with internet cable data earlier , but all looks good now.
Quote from DojiBB:
Like your chart. The long term gaussians at the bottom, what fractal are they based on? How do you use them in you daily routine?
flaw checklist
Trying to make a checklist for myself of flaws. I would appreciate some
feedback/ input. I'll paste it in and attach a word doc so if people feel
inclined they can change/add to it and reattach it. It is a work in progress.
I'd also like to mention some of the chat logs can be very helpful. Monday was
very enlightening for me.
http://www.elitetrader.com/ch/DigiC...t/20070611.html
Spyder broke down some valuable sequences. Today also had some good stuff in it.
_____________________________________
This could be embarassing but I'm sure we can improve it. Some of this is copied
from Spyders comments in the chat room.
-----------------------
FTT: Volume decreasing but >60% of previous bar. Price changing color to
non-dominant. Look for after volume expansions or flaws. Riskier to trade the
steeper the channel.
FLAWS: All flaws have less volume than an FTT and are frequently followed by an
FTT. Lateral price moves with price exiting the same direction it entered unless
an FTT occurs. 40-60 % of the previous bar volume your brain should move to flaw
instead of FTT.
Dip: pullback in price on decreasing volume with larger volume bars on each
side. Bowl shape price and volume. Could be 1-4 bars.
Hitch: Low range and less volume than an FTT, usually opposite color of the
trend and 2-3 ticks long.
Stall: Similar to hitch but more intrabar volatility, Expect post price and
volume to be similar to bars preceding the stall.
HVS: Typically longer duration, 3-4 bars or more with decreasing volume of
oscillating color. As it extends out in time all sorts of volume changes develop
and it turns into a CCC.
CCC: Decreasing volume and price volatility over extended period of time. ES
volume below 2500, YM volume below 200-250.
-------------------------------------------------------
If anyone is reviewing the chat logs, and finds some Spyder gems, I for one
would find it extremely cool if you could post them here. These real time clues
are pricelss, IMO.
TIKITRADER, Thanks for the insight.
Lost my connection around 2:45 eastern, so just finished my chart right now.
Nice day in the chat room..
Are we gonna to resume DOM discussions? The month is half over and I was hoping we'd get a little more indepth about what to look for etc.
Spyder, how would you view the 10:50 ES bar? We did go slightly lower indicating red vol however we closed higher than the previous bar indicating some black. These bars confuse the absolute hell out of me and I just dont know how to view them.
Quote from The Swordsman:
Spyder, how would you view the 10:50 ES bar? We did go slightly lower indicating red vol however we closed higher than the previous bar indicating some black. These bars confuse the absolute hell out of me and I just dont know how to view them.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Chart for the morning.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from The Swordsman:
Spyder, how would you view the 10:50 ES bar? We did go slightly lower indicating red vol however we closed higher than the previous bar indicating some black. These bars confuse the absolute hell out of me and I just dont know how to view them.
I have a question again about continuation or change.
I'm long the FTT pink arrow. Next bar is flaw red, in from the bottom. Flaw
means continuation.
In this case, does continuation represent the downtrend or the not yet confirmed
FTT?
Opinions please? I've struggled with this concept for a while in these
locations.
Esteban
I switched data provider and charting package and didn't trade for a few
weeks cause I wanted to get used to everything.
Attached is chart and trades for today (uptill 230).
Questions
Quote from windwallker:
Are we gonna to resume DOM discussions? The month is half over and I was hoping we'd get a little more indepth about what to look for etc.
Quote from EstebanUno:
In this case, does continuation represent the downtrend or the not yet confirmed FTT?
__________________
Quote from The Swordsman:
Spyder, how would you view the 10:50 ES bar? We did go slightly lower indicating red vol however we closed higher than the previous bar indicating some black. These bars confuse the absolute hell out of me and I just dont know how to view them.
Quote from EstebanUno:
I have a question again about continuation or change.
I'm long the FTT pink arrow. Next bar is flaw red, in from the bottom. Flaw means continuation.
In this case, does continuation represent the downtrend or the not yet confirmed FTT?
Opinions please? I've struggled with this concept for a while in these locations.
Esteban
![](http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1502216"")
Today's chart
Good Weekend to all
I never had a real channel (just a tape) when i used the 10:00 bar as my pt
1. Also the slope of my line actually doesnt vol exp after the 10:45 bar, merely
just touch my LTL (this is all still my tape). In order to actually get a real
channel w/ 3 points, I used the 10:15 bar a pt 1, 10:20 as pt 2 and then pt 3 at
10:25. Doing this, allowed me to get an FTT at 10:45.
Quote from bdolnik:
I REALLY had problems in this area also, still don't understand it (has been happening to me a lot lately, see my last post). Here is my chart and what I THOUGHT I saw. It's weird because I had been cruising along thinking I understood everything and then all of a sudden 2 times this week I'm at a loss to be able to explain. I posted a chart earlier with something similiar and no-one gave much feedback, so I'm really struggling here. Could use some help
Quote from bdolnik:
I REALLY had problems in this area also, still don't understand it (has been happening to me a lot lately, see my last post). Here is my chart and what I THOUGHT I saw. It's weird because I had been cruising along thinking I understood everything and then all of a sudden 2 times this week I'm at a loss to be able to explain. I posted a chart earlier with something similiar and no-one gave much feedback, so I'm really struggling here. Could use some help
Is it me, or does it seem illogical that we havent talked about flaws in
detail yet, considering how big a part they play in understanding what we are
seeing in realtime? I mean, Spyders charts are full of them and it seems some of
us sort of know about them, others are completely lost (me!) and then some think
they know but not really. I mean, the easy ones are the low volume ones but I've
seen plenty in review of Spyders charts where the vol isnt that low but its
still a stall or dip (or whatever).
Am I the only one feeling lost when it comes to flaws?
Quote from windwallker:
Is it me, or does it seem illogical that we havent talked about flaws in detail yet, considering how big a part they play in understanding what we are seeing in realtime? I mean, Spyders charts are full of them and it seems some of us sort of know about them, others are completely lost (me!) and then some think they know but not really. I mean, the easy ones are the low volume ones but I've seen plenty in review of Spyders charts where the vol isnt that low but its still a stall or dip (or whatever).
Am I the only one feeling lost when it comes to flaws?
My ES chart for the day (6/15/07).
spooz
Yea I let my tape turn into a channel, maybe that was my problem.
Even afterwards I looked and looked to try and see how else I would have drawn
the channel to catch that FTT and couldn't see it. I guess I need to be more
conscious of 'redrawing' than letting tapes continue... however I'm sure I
remember Spyder or someone saying they often let their tapes turn into channels.
Quote from spooz_trader1:
My ES chart for the day (6/15/07).
spooz
Oh really??? Thanks man, I will do some searching
Quote from Pr0crast:
They are discussed in depth in the ET chat room. There have been some good logs posted that you should review.
.
Quote from bdolnik:
Yea I let my tape turn into a channel, maybe that was my problem.
Even afterwards I looked and looked to try and see how else I would have drawn the channel to catch that FTT and couldn't see it. I guess I need to be more conscious of 'redrawing' than letting tapes continue... however I'm sure I remember Spyder or someone saying they often let their tapes turn into channels.
Today's ES Chart
06-15-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-15-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Flaws
Quote from windwallker:
Is it me, or does it seem illogical that we havent talked about flaws in detail yet.
__________________
ES 15 June 2007
Today was truly uncanny. For the first time, I could see the market unfolding,
often several bars ahead. Not once, but continuously. The "aha" seems to have
come about from several factors.
Firstly, starting to recognize flaws, and in particular those on non dom
traverses - which we all know are really new dom traverses. Lo and behold -
change! I was seeing change before the ftt even appeared. It was spooky.
I have a tendency to enter
frequently on the non dom traverse of a non dom traverse, in other words, the
retrace of a retrace, trying to catch the resumption of the dominant direction.
By recognising flaws during non dominant traverses for what they really are i.e.
change, I avoided this today.
Secondly, taking on board the fact that we are unlikely to see an FTT before we
have had flaws and/or VE. Result - fewer misidentified FTTs.
Lastly, the identification of odd and even harmonics. I have used two bar
DB/DTs, spikes and laterals before, but not like this. When looked at in the
context of channels, flaws, continuation and change, they are very powerful.
With many years of trading experience, it is frustrating to see poor results day
after day, even on a sim. What became clear today was that until the tools are
being used properly, it is not even sensible to use a sim. I know that Spyder
told us this on page 1. I thought a month of monitoring was enough. It wasn't. I
take this opportunity to publicly thank Spyder for his patience and hard work.
David
Quote from windwallker:
Is it me, or does it seem illogical that we havent talked about flaws in detail yet, considering how big a part they play in understanding what we are seeing in realtime? I mean, Spyders charts are full of them and it seems some of us sort of know about them, others are completely lost (me!) and then some think they know but not really. I mean, the easy ones are the low volume ones but I've seen plenty in review of Spyders charts where the vol isnt that low but its still a stall or dip (or whatever).
Am I the only one feeling lost when it comes to flaws?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from dkm:
ES 15 June 2007
I take this opportunity to publicly thank Spyder for his patience and hard work.
David
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Chart
__________________
ymu7 2minute chart. g/w to all
Quote from windwallker:
Is it me, or does it seem illogical that we havent talked about flaws in detail yet, considering how big a part they play in understanding what we are seeing in realtime? I mean, Spyders charts are full of them and it seems some of us sort of know about them, others are completely lost (me!) and then some think they know but not really. I mean, the easy ones are the low volume ones but I've seen plenty in review of Spyders charts where the vol isnt that low but its still a stall or dip (or whatever).
Am I the only one feeling lost when it comes to flaws?
Syllabus Update
The Syllabus Update
The current discussion highlighted in Red.
- Spydertrader
__________________
The future seems so much brighter
Is it me, or does it seem illogical that we havent talked about flaws in
detail yet, considering how big a part they play in understanding what we are
seeing in realtime? I mean, Spyders charts are full of them and it seems some of
us sort of know about them, others are completely lost (me!) and then some think
they know but not really. I mean, the easy ones are the low volume ones but I've
seen plenty in review of Spyders charts where the vol isnt that low but its
still a stall or dip (or whatever).
Am I the only one feeling lost when it comes to flaws?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Spyder’s charts are littered with flaws( dips, stalls, hitches, cccs and HVS)
but I haven’t taken much notice of them up until
Page 655 of the journal or thereabouts. Spyder advises that we go through his
charts bar by bar.
"Review and count up the traverses where an FTT happened without a flaw or VE
and compare that number to the traverses where FTT followed a flaw or VE. Once
mastered you will be able to see what the market is telling us."
Well, I spent hours and hours studying charts looking/identifying these flaws,
asking questions via pms. The introduction of Harmonics assisted a great deal,
together with time spent in the chatroom with Spyder and in others company most
afternoons helped to absorb all this in my subconscious.
I am beginning to see the “flaws and harmonics” in real time and having AHA
moments every now and then.
My thanks go to Pr0 for spending hours and hours with me explaining Gaussians,
to Spooz and Ellis for telling me” just do it.” Ezzy helping at the beginning.
Bundle, Pointone, Mikey have shared so generously. And above all, Jack, Spyder
and MAK for setting the tone. I have a long way to go but the FUTURE seems so
much brighter now ( Goinglite!!).
Re: Syllabus Update
Spyder,
Sorry to bother you with something you posted last month:
Is the context here (bar 8) the B2R in the steep up channel (I added in purple)? In other words are you asking "what do we need for the B2R to continue and/or what do we need for the B2R to change (or maybe invalidate in this case - another B2R)?". It seems like if you want to see decreasing red for NOC, you must be talking about the R part of the B2R.
Quote from Spydertrader:
See attached. The Price pattern begins with Bar 7, however, we cannot confuse Bar Seven with an HVS as it is a Breakout Bar. On bar 8, we see what we (at the time) think is an FTT. We then check Volume and note (based on PRV) everything appears simply fine and dandy. We have just the right amount of Volume coming in to form our FTT (decreasing red in an Up Channel). As normal, we need to continue to monitor bar to bar at our "Points of Change" while asking ourselves what do we need for continuation? (decreasing red) and what do we need for change (anything black). Bar nine opens and begins to head lower (again confirming in our minds Bar 8 as an FTT). After forming an equivalent bottom with Bar 8, Price, on Bar 9 heads higher).
Quote from Spydertrader:
In this context, you have continuation to the high side as the flaws formed after Price retraces from the left trend line. In other words, we have flaws showing up in a non-dominant traverse. Perhaps, the market is trying to tell you something here.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Spy already commented on this, but yeah... note the huge black vol bar followed by the tiny red vol bar. Anticip continuation here, but UP, not down. The second I saw that big black vol bar, I saw this as a very likely candidate for a PT1 of an eventual new up channel. I think that qualifies as a spike/triangle wave bar. If you didn't see the black bar as DOMINANT, then the flaw certainly should clue you in, since flaws only happen in DOM traverses.
Re: Re: Syllabus Update
Quote from spooz_trader1:
Is the context here (bar 8) the B2R in the steep up channel (I added in purple)? In other words are you asking "what do we need for the B2R to continue and/or what do we need for the B2R to change (or maybe invalidate in this case - another B2R)?". It seems like if you want to see decreasing red for NOC, you must be talking about the R part of the B2R.
__________________
Re: Today's ES Chart
Can you please explain the channel drawn from 13:05 as your point 1 (olive
green up channel)? I dont understand why pt 2 is the 2nd bar. Shouldnt pts 1 & 2
be on the 13:05 bar??
Quote from Spydertrader:
06-15-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from The Swordsman:
Can you please explain the channel drawn from 13:05 as your point 1 (olive green up channel)? I dont understand why pt 2 is the 2nd bar. Shouldnt pts 1 & 2 be on the 13:05 bar??
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Thats definitely reassuring but I am curious why you drew it the way you did,
to me, it doesnt make sense because it doesnt account for the range of the 13:05
bar. Obviously you drew it the way you did for a reason otherwise you would have
made pts 1&2 on the same bar. Just a little confusing to this newbie thats all
Quote from Spydertrader:
Sure, but as you can see, even after making the changes, we don't 'see' the market any differently (other than perhaps having the ability to anticipate the FBO).
- Spydertrader
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from The Swordsman:
Thats definitely reassuring but I am curious why you drew it the way you did.
__________________
Quote from Tums:
go back to May 22 of this Journal... you will see Pr0 posted a recap.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
It's just the way I viewed that particular area of the chart. In other areas of the same chart, I drew in the lines the way you describe. As to why I drew it differently this time, I cannot say. I really have no idea. Maybe, my subconscious knows something the rest of my brain doesn't. Maybe, I completely missed the previous bar when I zoomed into that area of the chart. Maybe, its the whole 'sports memory' thing. I honestly couldn't tell you. I can tell you that I don't 'sit and think' of the best way to draw in channels. My eyes 'see' a channel and I add the lines - often in advance of any forming Price bars.
Now, having said that, it wasn't always this way. At some point in my own learning process (you should see the horrible channels I used to draw before Nwbprop taught me correctly in Journal I), I simply started to draw the lines in without thinking. I expect some have already made this same transition, and I believe everyone does so at their own pace.
- Spydertrader
Spyder, looking to confirm what I think is correct regarding odd harmonics. I have a chart annotated with them , but I switched the 2 min ym to the 3 min just to simplify the chart not to change anything that is being taught here. My real problem is identifying hvs. I think I see them many times ( too many), but I am confused as to when it is real. I see the lateral pattern set up with alternating volume and decreasing volume ,but I still am not sure how many bars do I need to confirm and how many bars they can last. I know it has been discussed before but I am having trouble grasping it.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
..My real problem is identifying hvs. I think I see them many times ( too many), but I am confused as to when it is real. I see the lateral pattern set up with alternating volume and decreasing volume ,but I still am not sure how many bars do I need to confirm and how many bars they can last. I know it has been discussed before but I am having trouble grasping it.
Quote from nkhoi:
minimum 2 bars, since it can not be just 1 bar. And it can last as long as market wants it to be. Clue: watch for alternate color, watch decrease vol of either color.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
Spyder, looking to confirm what I think is correct regarding odd harmonics. I have a chart annotated with them , but I switched the 2 min ym to the 3 min just to simplify the chart not to change anything that is being taught here. My real problem is identifying hvs. I think I see them many times ( too many), but I am confused as to when it is real. I see the lateral pattern set up with alternating volume and decreasing volume ,but I still am not sure how many bars do I need to confirm and how many bars they can last. I know it has been discussed before but I am having trouble grasping it.
__________________
Quote from TIKITRADER:
In this example , could this be an hvs? ..
Just to clarify, you used the three minute YM to more easily post your
question, and not to monitor throughout the day, correct?-
SPYDER, That is correct. just was a little clearer in this example. I only use
the 2 minute ym to monitor through the day. Remember, not all examples of an HVS
create a lateral. - SPYDER, If you have any examples of this, I may be better to
understand all of the aspects of an hvs. I do need to reinforce the process of
elimination. It is an area I lack in real time. Something this month I look
forward to strengthening.
Does such a program exist which, after you have your 3 pts already in place and channeled, will automatically expand the channel(s) when volitility occurs? I find it very tough to do it all manually, especially when I have 3 or so up(down) channels all with various slopes.
Wind...
I am not aware of any such automation and if indeed it existed would strongly
urge you to NOT use it. If you're feeling a bit overwhelmed with all you have to
do it's simply a sign that you need lots (and I mean LOTS) more practice. It
truly gets easier (really quite pleasurable, almost like a game) with adequate
experience.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
06-15-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
The 1130 bar was decreasing red which should throw up the flag that change was a distinct possibility. my 2 cents.
Bundle
It hasnt nothing to do with more practice needed drawing the channels, like I
said this would be needed AFTER 3 pts have already been established. What I am
asking is for the volitility expansion part of the process to be faster. Alot of
times we see, right after VE and close of the bar in and up channel, an FTT of
eqivalent highs (or slightly higher). By the time I move my line and see the
FTT, its already moving in the opposite direction. Had the line been already VE
for me (via some program) I would be able to focus on seeing if the FTT sooner.
Not saying that this program exists but at these points of change, anything that
would speed up the channeling part would be great
Quote from bundlemaker:
Wind...
I am not aware of any such automation and if indeed it existed would strongly urge you to NOT use it. If you're feeling a bit overwhelmed with all you have to do it's simply a sign that you need lots (and I mean LOTS) more practice. It truly gets easier (really quite pleasurable, almost like a game) with adequate experience.
Quote from windwallker:
Bundle
It hasnt nothing to do with more practice needed drawing the channels, like I said this would be needed AFTER 3 pts have already been established. What I am asking is for the volitility expansion part of the process to be faster. Alot of times we see, right after VE and close of the bar in and up channel, an FTT of eqivalent highs (or slightly higher). By the time I move my line and see the FTT, its already moving in the opposite direction. Had the line been already VE for me (via some program) I would be able to focus on seeing if the FTT sooner.
Not saying that this program exists but at these points of change, anything that would speed up the channeling part would be great
Yes each bar IS 5 mins long HOWEVER we do not know in advance where the high
of the bar will be, it could be put in in the first minute of the bar or the
very last secs of the bar. Sure it takes 5 secs to do it, but 5 secs is a LONG
time when you are in a trade, possibly looking to reverse, create the VE lines,
evaluating if this bar is a possible FTT and placing trades all at the same
time. I know most people arent trading live and think that maybe my posts about
this are silly but once you start trading or thinking about all the logistics
involved, it might make more sense what I am saying.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Each bar is 5 minutes long. It takes (or should take, after some practice) 5 seconds to copy, paste, and trim a line for a VE.
If it's really difficult for you, I suggest doing it the easy way and instead of copying in new VE lines, just move the LTL you already drew out a little. Then it takes 2 seconds instead of 5.
Quote from windwallker:
.. I know most people arent trading live and think that maybe my posts about this are silly but once you start trading or thinking about all the logistics involved, it might make more sense what I am saying.
Windwalker
I dont know what software youre using but Quotetracker has the fastest trendline
capability that I know of. Simply clik on your left trendline and move it out.
Takes about a second.
There is no need to be arguementative with me Nkhoi, I am merely asking if
such a program exists. Like I said before, it has nothing to do with drawing the
channels or finding the 3 pts, but when I have multiple up channels all with LTL
of different slopes that need adjusting and very quickly, it would be much
easier if some software could instantly place them appropriately at bars close.
It seems you just jumped in to take a shot at me for some reason, instead of
being helpful (like BearBelly was). Your "know-it-all" comments are unneccesary.
Anyways, thanks Bearbelly, I will look into QT as my primary charting software.
Quote from nkhoi:
people who trade live have no problem with drawing ve. Instead of blaming the tool for not up to standard, may I suggest you spend some more months on drawing channels.
Quote from windwallker:
There is no need to be arguementative with me Nkhoi, I am merely asking if such a program exists. Like I said before, it has nothing to do with drawing the channels or finding the 3 pts, but when I have multiple up channels all with LTL of different slopes that need adjusting and very quickly, it would be much easier if some software could instantly place them appropriately at bars close.
It seems you just jumped in to take a shot at me for some reason, instead of being helpful (like BearBelly was). Your "know-it-all" comments are unneccesary.
Anyways, thanks Bearbelly, I will look into QT as my primary charting software.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Thank you Bundle, I will keep working at it to improve my speed.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Windwalker, as I believe you're really trying to figure this all out and make a go of it (as opposed to simply being a troll) I'd like to take one more stab at a response. Several people have suggested you do it manually and that it would serve you best to do this. The reason is simple: it will train your mind. I'ts not about being "easier", it's about building skill. Automation hinders, not helps, skill building. I invite you to do as others have and progressed so well. Don't reinvent the wheel. The others on this thread who have learned to do this learned without the aid of the tool you so strongly desire. Our primary teacher (Spyder) has stressed time and again, based on personal experience and teaching experience, what works and what doesn't. These words are my sincere effort to expose you to the idea that what you think you need to do or what you think is a better way, may in fact cause you to miss out on learning.
Spent some quality time reviewing the chat logs from the past week. Some really good thought process discussions!
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from AllenW:
Could you comment on the two bars at 11:35 and :40---I saw them as flaws and continuation down. But obviously not...do harmonics say otherwise?
__________________
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
I apologize for not seeing your question sooner.
The sequence starts with the 11:30 AM Bar which creates a Volatility Expansion. In addition, we see Price bounce up off the Left Trend Line (Intra-Bar) and head higher. As a result, I viewed the 11:35 and 11:40 bars as an Even Harmonic and anticipated Price heading higher (as Price was already moving in the direction of a retrace when the Even harmonic appeared.
One could have also viewed the same bar formation as an HVS (by the alternating [and decreasing] red and black Volume). Again, understanding how Price entered the HVS provides clues as to how Price would Exit the HVS. Further, since we don't normally see flaws appearing in non-dominant traverses, you have your clue that the trend had changed.
Compare the 11:30 - 11:40 Price formation to the 11:05 - 11:10 Price formation to better understand the differences (Please use this chart for the comparisons) between continuation and change. I'm confident you'll quickly note the the similarities and differences between the two situations.
It's these slight differences between the two which resulted in quite different outcomes.
- Spydertrader
Chart for the morning.
regards,
Ivo
5 MIN ES 6-18-07
I welcome any and all comments regarding the chart posted. I seems okay to
me, but then again how much improvement can I make if I am the sole judge and
jury on my own efforts .
Also, I am trying to figure out when increasing red vol. at an (up trend
channel) RTL doesn't mean the market isn't going down.
Today's ES Chart
06-18-2007 ES Chart.
The 'Hitches' annotated on this chart, aren't really Hitches, but they provide
the closest example in a very long time, so I have marked them as such.
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-18-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's chart
Best Regards,
Take two
I was lazy today... didn't do any annotation.
Quote from Tums:
I was lazy today... didn't do any annotation.
rofl @ Pr0
Quote from Pr0crast:
I'm always lazy...
YMU7 2 Minute, Understanding even harmonics has been a little bit challenging
for me. Spyder gave me advice on using a process of elimination that I want to
strengthen. In this chart of 2 min ym, I have two yellow highlighted areas. The
first is what I think is a lateral ccc. The thought process, I have in my
channel at 12:02 what looks like an ftt. Now I am looking for a non dominant
traverse, when, at 12:06 I notice equal lows and low volume .12:08 bar closes
with equal highs to previous bar. 12:10 bar closes with equal highs to 2
previous bars and equal lows to the 12:06 and the 12:04 bars, again low volume.
I now draw my lateral channel and the analysis seems easy ( low volume lateral )
, must be ccc. The second, is what I think is an hvs. The thought process, It
starts with a breakout at 15:10 on high volume to the downside, out of a small
green upchannel that started at 14:56. The 15:12 bar closes equal lows to
previous bar. I now am looking at an ftt. Close of the 15:14 bar and I am now
looking at equal highs to previous bar.Also, now looking at volume ,I notice
alternating volume color bars and decreasing volume. Need to do a process of
elimination to see what this is ( or is not ). Do not have all low volume-
scratch ccc off list. Do not have low price volatility-- eliminate hitch off
list. The 15:12 bar does not form a bowl type of shape,it has equal highs to the
15:14 bar. I am now crossing off a dip from the list. This now leaves me with a
stall and an hvs. A stall should be showing signs of returning volume , and
volume is decreasing. I really don't know at this point if I am correct about a
stall . I am still not good at the process of elimination, but trying . . .
15:16 bar closes. price now has returned to equal previous lows of 15:10 and
15:12. volume is even lower and has formed alternating colors while decreasing.
Stall is off list, because volume would have had to increase. HVS ! only thing
left. looking at price it had entered from above and down into the lateral. I
should be thinking down.15:18 and down on increasing red. I think I am starting
to understand even harmonics, but realize, I need lots of improvement. Please
feel free to tell me if I am wrong here, it is the only way I can learn. Thanks
Spyder for taking the time to clarify this and walk me through the thought
process.
I would like to share a compiled screenshot of the wall that occurred during
bar 50 (13:35). It contains two snapshots (13:37:30 and 13:38:00) and the volume
increments sent by IB during this period.
My description:
After a possible FTT (bar 46) and a possible PT3 (bar 49) at a larger RTL (brown
in Spyder's chart): a double wall forms at what could be a possible new faster
tape pt3 (short). Some lots (332) go into the wall (long), and the inner wall
gets pulled. More lots (910) go away from the wall than into it (0) over a
period of 20 seconds. A single lot goes into the wall and more trades go away
from wall. The tape continues and it seems the wall helped the move; then VE,
FTT, BO and Retest of RTL (of tape) (bars 52-55).
Best Regards,
My apologies in reference to my last post on even harmonics. Starting the day at 1pm, I had begun my trading day. The ccc was a lateral even harmonic that I walked through in hindsight analysis. I wanted to share the bar by bar thought process to better understand the lateral movement, that I may be corrected if I am wrong in the analysis of the harmonic. The hvs took place in realtime and it is how I really felt, at that moment, and processed the bar by bar action. I began the elimination of flaws, one by one, to narrow down to the last. It is greatly appreciated if any mistakes were made in the recognition of these flaws, that I can receive advice on how to better analyze them in the future.
Looks spot on to me, but also looks like the HVS turned into a CCC.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
YMU7 2 Minute, Understanding even harmonics has been a little bit challenging for me. Spyder gave me advice on using a process of elimination that I want to strengthen. In this chart of 2 min ym, I have two yellow highlighted areas. The first is what I think is a lateral ccc. The thought process, I have in my channel at 12:02 what looks like an ftt. Now I am looking for a non dominant traverse, when, at 12:06 I notice equal lows and low volume .12:08 bar closes with equal highs to previous bar. 12:10 bar closes with equal highs to 2 previous bars and equal lows to the 12:06 and the 12:04 bars, again low volume. I now draw my lateral channel and the analysis seems easy ( low volume lateral ) , must be ccc. The second, is what I think is an hvs. The thought process, It starts with a breakout at 15:10 on high volume to the downside, out of a small green upchannel that started at 14:56. The 15:12 bar closes equal lows to previous bar. I now am looking at an ftt. Close of the 15:14 bar and I am now looking at equal highs to previous bar.Also, now looking at volume ,I notice alternating volume color bars and decreasing volume. Need to do a process of elimination to see what this is ( or is not ). Do not have all low volume- scratch ccc off list. Do not have low price volatility-- eliminate hitch off list. The 15:12 bar does not form a bowl type of shape,it has equal highs to the 15:14 bar. I am now crossing off a dip from the list. This now leaves me with a stall and an hvs. A stall should be showing signs of returning volume , and volume is decreasing. I really don't know at this point if I am correct about a stall . I am still not good at the process of elimination, but trying . . . 15:16 bar closes. price now has returned to equal previous lows of 15:10 and 15:12. volume is even lower and has formed alternating colors while decreasing. Stall is off list, because volume would have had to increase. HVS ! only thing left. looking at price it had entered from above and down into the lateral. I should be thinking down.15:18 and down on increasing red. I think I am starting to understand even harmonics, but realize, I need lots of improvement. Please feel free to tell me if I am wrong here, it is the only way I can learn. Thanks Spyder for taking the time to clarify this and walk me through the thought
process.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Looks spot on to me, but also looks like the HVS turned into a CCC.
Hi,
Here is one example of Walls at ES. Go to
http://pepe.4shared.com/
and download ‘Wall.avi’.
It has some nice things. It’s important to see that Walls (at ASK) were never
‘eaten, only moved (you can see this in T&S). It started to be at 1548.50 then
moved to 1549.50 and then again to 1548.75.
Sometimes walls at BBid or BAsk are fast ‘eaten’ like someone wanted to create
liquidity for someone else fills. It’s strange that sometimes +2000 cars fills
the BBID only to see moments later sells of +1200 on T&S.
This is why I think this period was very interesting, because all ‘Walls’ were
never eaten.
This all period could be one of two cases, imo:
1. It could be several attempts from someone to push the market higher failing
to succeed as for what I often see, the market tends to follow the path of the
highest cumulative volume. In this case there wasn’t anyone interested in buying
all this liquidity at Ask. There is one moment (at minute 05:39 of the video),
where there are two walls of 4500 cars at 1548.25 and 1548.00, it was the last
failed attempt for market go higher
2. It could be some kind of ‘game’, holding the market by offering liquidity to
buyers and selling at the same time, getting better fill prices until their
orders are all filled.
Best Regards,
Quote from TIKITRADER:
Pr0crast, Would I view the 15:18 through 15:24 bars as my ccc based on the volume ? I should be aware of the channel of ccc and watch for its b/o? or what I should be saying , looking for continuation? . . . I think I just answered myself. Thanks Pr0
Quote from Pepe:
1. It could be several attempts from someone to push the market higher failing to succeed as for what I often see, the market tends to follow the path of the highest cumulative volume. In this case there wasn’t anyone interested in buying all this liquidity at Ask. There is one moment (at minute 05:39 of the video), where there are two walls of 4500 cars at 1548.25 and 1548.00, it was the last failed attempt for market go higher
2. It could be some kind of ‘game’, holding the market by offering liquidity to buyers and selling at the same time, getting better fill prices until their orders are all filled.
Best Regards,
Ezzy,
This has always created confusion for me. I agree with the control point being
the inside bid/ask but as for the cumulative and path of least resistance this
is where I get confused. It would make sense for the market to take the path of
least resistance. However the markets job is to facilitate trade and often seems
to move toward the side of higher cumulative volume. On trend days it seems like
it continuously is moving toward the side with higher cumulative volume. I only
know this from failed attempts fighting trend days using the cumulative volume
as a reason to enter.
There are successful scalpers that wait for a 2:1 ratio and enter anticipating
price going to the larger size. I don't understand the dynamics of this stuff
that well and am thankful that the method Spyder has taught us the cumulative
doesn't appear to be a factor as price/volume keep you on the right side.
Hope to someday understand this stuff better and would like someone to explain
it to me but realize it is a little off topic.
Quote from Ezzy:
Not sure what you meant when you said price follows the highest cumulative volume. So I apologize if I misunderstood. The path of least resistance is the smaller side. The price never moved up much as there was a lot of cumulative orders on the ask, lots of supply. Even if nearby orders got pulled there wasn't very far to go.
The actual control point is at the BB/BA. Which side gets eaten first. The walls farther away don't have an effect yet. You'll notice the volume picked up quite a bit after the 4500 walls appeared at BA.
If someone is playing games, they won't do it at the BB/BA, it will be back a level or two, lest someone hit their orders.
In the video, you could be pretty confident price wasn't going up, unless a lot of size started coming in hitting the ask.
Thanks for posting the vid. - EZ [/B]
IMO, the bigger cum. vol. on the DOM represents a big liquidity pool which attracts the vol. players for profit taking or Arbs activity which consequently causes the price to move towards it. It seems cntrary to the supply & demand if looked at from a very close distance but the big picture is quite in harmony with the S&D.
Quote from Cy_M:
IMO, the bigger cum. vol. on the DOM represents a big liquidity pool which attracts the vol. players for profit taking or Arbs activity which consequently causes the price to move towards it. It seems cntrary to the supply & demand if looked at from a very close distance but the big picture is quite in harmony with the S&D.
Hi,
I often see two things on DOM:
1. It often moves towards the side of highest cumulative volume
2. At BBid/Bask it follows the path of least resistance (i.e. the smaller size)
Why markets move towards the side of highest cumulative volume, is one thing
that maybe it’s counter-intuitive, but try to think how one makes money in the
market? The answer is easy. One must profit from someone loss. Now, if
there are 5000 cars at Bid and 15.000 at Ask where do you think one can target
the largest loss to someone (and the largest profit to him)? Remember,
majority can never be right, if that happened it will be impossible for one
to make money in markets as there were too many people on one side and no one to
fill that supply.
Of course, we only need to watch DOM near RTL and LTL, which because of the
nature of channels and what they represent, one can stay alert (at the right
moment) to detect subtle details not available to anyone that doesn’t use
channels.
At LTL for instance, as this is one extreme of price range one may see if a
‘Wall’ will be eaten or not, giving one important clue that there aren’t
sufficient buyers or sellers to make price head higher or lower, making this a
signal of “change”.
Best Regards,
My two cents, based on my limited knowledge...
I think its important to keep in mind that the DOM just shows the supply,
while the T&S shows the demand.
If there is a big wall underneath, this simply means that a lot of people, by
their own methods, are long have decided to place protective stops there. This
creates a supply that seller-demand eats from. If DEMAND is such that the wall
can be defeated, this reveals that at this moment in time, the sellers are a
force to be reckoned with.
If there is a big wall above, this simply means that a lot of people, by their
own methods, are short and have decided to place protective stops there. This
creates a supply that buyer-demand eats from. If DEMAND is such that the wall
can be defeated, this reveals that at this moment in time, the buyers are a
force to be reckoned with.
I really don't see how the mere existence of a wall can possibly "attract"
demand, but if you can provide some evidence of this I would certainly consider
the possibility. In our timeframe, I haven't witnessed any usable
phenomena other than:
1) the minority supply rules
2) especially strong demand creates a new minority supply
Thanks for taking the time to comment...
Regards,
Pr0crast
Quote from Pr0crast:
My two cents, based on my limited knowledge...
I really don't see how the mere existence of a wall can possibly "attract" demand, but if you can provide some evidence of this I would certainly consider the possibility.
Regards,
Pr0crast
Quote from Cy_M:
The Hedge fund who needs to pick up 30k ES , is not going to miss the opportunity to not pick up a few k,s there from the big pool and wait for the price to drop a few ticks more down where there won't be any liquidity!
Quote from Pr0crast:
Certainly that explains some some of times when those big orders go through, but are you saying that there tends to almost always be a hedge fund that will take advantage of these supply excesses that materialize multiple times an hour? What about the times when the wall holds, with no attempt to take it down? This seems to happen just as often.
Thanks for your patience in addressing my questions.
Quote from Pr0crast:
I really don't see how the mere existence of a wall can possibly "attract" demand, but if you can provide some evidence of this I would certainly consider the possibility. In our timeframe, I haven't witnessed any usable phenomena other than:
1) the minority supply rules
2) especially strong demand creates a new minority supply
Thanks for comments, all. It appears I have a thing or two mixed up, but I think I have been straightened out (both here and PMs).
This is an interesting thread which describes the counterintuitive phenomenon
you often see in the DOM (price going toward the largest cumulative volume).
It is used just for a couple ticks scalp.
Unfortunately even in that thread, there's not a definitive answer (why the heck
does it happen?)
www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.p...8&highlight=acv
Again, it's a pool of liquidity, people with high demands(big pic.) will
visit it and draw from it.
Where do you go with a demand to draw millons of galons of water, to a lake way
out there or the smallest but nearest river?
__________________
Cy
Another concept is that you have a ton of naked puts and it seems a bottom is
approaching and need to hedge your trades, again you'd draw from the liquidity a
few ticks up, since you beleive the market is going to rally.
Another is, that some short term traders expect a rally and hae have purchased
low and already got into the FIFO in anticipation of a short
rally.............there can be many viable scenarios. So it's a profit taking
FIFO line up and the people who have bought it low are correct more often than
not. You must be one heck of an expert trader to buy low! So they know and we
are seeing their footprint on the DOM.
In other words there are 2 or many different levels of DEMAND and we should
not be looking just at the immediate demand which is contrary to a longer term
demand. Hence at the end of the day, the demand and supply are working just fine
only it needs to be inspected at a slightly higher resolution.
I hope I have answered the mystery.......
Quote from Cy_M:
In other words there are 2 or many different levels of DEMAND and we should not be looking just at the immediate demand which is contrary to a longer term demand. Hence at the end of the day, the demand and supply are working just fine only it needs to be inspected at a slightly higher resolution.
I hope I have answered the mystery.......
Quote from mark1:
Man, you are good
Yes, your reasoning makes sense. Thx
.
I hadn't posted a chart in a while and thought I'd post what I did today just for fun. Mostly done in real time, with a short break (don't recall exaclty when). Still not perfect, but way better than before.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
For every winner there is a loser. YOU ARE WELCOME !
The gaussians and the market totally confused me today. Plenty of small losses
and reversals.
My annotated RT chart and trades is a good example of how NOT to trade.
I need a good debriefing tonight.
Today's chart
Regards,
My ES for today.
Here's my ES chart for today. I had some trouble with the 13:20 - 14:30
rather persistant downtrend that kept signaling FTT up. I wasn't quick enough
getting back on the right side, especially after the 14:05 FTT. That was a tough
one.
Otherwise mostly ok. Not an easy day though.
I use to trade stocks like this, always gravitating towards the "stale size"
or non pro-active buyers/sellers. Obviously agressive sellers and buyers who
came into the mkt new I traded in front of (and rode their momentum) but the
passive buyers and sellers I looked to trade through their size. It wasnt the
absolute #s of shares that I reacted to but how they appeared to be
participating within the context of the day or specific time period. I see a lot
of the same stuff here in the ES, although its at a faster pace. Alot of times,
when I anticipate a turning point I look on the DOM and I'll see the bid get
wiped out and someone steps down and flashes 4K or whatever and then disappears.
All things being equal, I keep this in my mind that he is there and its amazing
how often that guy reappears shortly thereafter and drives the price lower. Of
course there are a lot of other games of flashing here and there but I am seeing
that at these critical turning points, the size players tip their hand. I will
keep watching to see how consistent this phenomena is.
Quote from mark1:
This is an interesting thread which describes the counterintuitive phenomenon you often see in the DOM (price going toward the largest cumulative volume).
It is used just for a couple ticks scalp.
Unfortunately even in that thread, there's not a definitive answer (why the heck does it happen?)
www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.p...8&highlight=acv
Hey 8833,
Just looking at your chart I noticed something I was doing too. It looks like
early in the day you are only trading the non dominant traverse, and not getting
in on the dominant ones.
Perhaps this may help, see my post on this page:
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea...675#post1498675
-Mike
Quote from Pepe:
Hi Pr0,
It isn't because of a 'wall' in the Ask or in the Bid that will 'attract' demand by itself. It is (for what I see) because of the total cumulative volume. Sometimes you can see one 'Wall' at Bid for instance but the highest CV is at the Ask side.
My ES chart for today (6/19/07)...
spooz
Today's ES Chart
06-19-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-19-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
ES chart 19 Jun 2007
At the ET Chat, I put all the trolls and loiterers on "ignore". I can actually follow the conversation now.
Spyder,
There was an curious sequence starting around 9:55 today that I had trouble
classifying. I noted that the 9:55 and 10:00 black bars showed higher prices on
decreasing black volume so I was suspecting a non-dominant black guassian (blue
ch retrace). The 10:05 and 10:10 red bars showed lower price on higher volume so
this seemed to confirm that we were in a red dominant guassian (blue ch
dominant). However, the 10:15 bar showed increasing price on increasing black
volume... which I think would be an intrabar guassian change.
How does one reconcile the two red 10:05 and 10:10 bars on increasing red volume
with the dominant black guassian shown from 10:00 to 10:30 on your ES chart ?
ES Chart June 19 2007
ES Chart June 19 2007
Haven't posted a chart in a long time. Did not annotate the down channel near
the EOD.
Comments welcome.
what remarkable was RTL since morning was able to repeal all down ward channels.
10:15 AM
Quote from Talas:
How does one reconcile the two red 10:05 and 10:10 bars on increasing red volume with the dominant black Gaussian shown from 10:00 to 10:30 on your ES chart ?
__________________
My Trading Platform from today.
As a long time user of QCharts, I have been reluctant to give up on it mainly
because of the annotation functionality.
Alas, I have finally decided that I can no longer put up with its shortcomings.
I have made the jump to Quote Tracker for futures. This is in no small part due
to the fine work of Pr0crast and excav8tr. Thanks guys.
In addition to incorporating their work on the PRV and Stretch/Squeeze, I have
opted for Quote Traders DOM (it’s those horizontal stalactites that got me) both
run on an IB feed. I actually use the upper part or the IB BookTrader, for
trading, sized to fit over the upper part of the Q Trader window. I like the
action buttons that they provide for.
I believe the three (IB, QTracker & QTrader) well present all the necessary
tools with good data that actually moves in unison on all applications, at a
time when the market is actually trading there. What a novel Idea, maybe QCharts
will get a clue someday. And this not to mention that it is all free.
Good Trading
Hi Ezzy,
First wanted to clarify terms. By "cumulative volume" you're referring to the total orders on the 1st 5 levels of the DOM.
Just to nit pick, I don't believe there is a loser on the other side of every trade, as I can sell a contract to Pr0 at 1540, he can sell to Spyder at 1445, who can sell to you at 1450 and so on. We could go way off track with that, but also consider the producer of the contract
A couple things to consider, once all that volume is done what's gonna happen? Is it running fast or slow? Where are you in the channel?
Quote from 8833broc:
For every winner there is a loser. YOU ARE WELCOME !
The gaussians and the market totally confused me today. Plenty of small loses and reversals.
My annotated RT chart and trades is a good example of how NOT to trade.
I need a good debriefing tonight.
koamana-
That's a heck of a setup there !!!
Quote from Pepe:
The number of futures contracts open is called "Open Interest". This tells you how many available contracts exist at one moment.
In the end there will be one person (at least) that will lose money. For one person to win there must be at least one person to lose.
Futures as Zero-Sum Game
Selling something bellow its market value means taking a loss ...
Zero-Sum Game (Investopedia): A situation in which one participant's gains
result only from another participant's equivalent losses. The net change in
total wealth among participants is zero; the wealth is just shifted from one to
another.
Options and future contracts are examples of zero-sum games (excluding
costs). For every person who gains on a contract, there is a counter-party who
loses. Gambling is also an example of a zero-sum game.
A stock market, however, is not a zero-sum game because wealth can be created in
a stock market.
Quote from Ezzy:
My contention with this often quoted view is it isn't "necessarily" true. That's why I said " but also consider the producer of the contract."
The farmer sells a futures contract of corn, Kellogs (or whoever) buys it to make corn flakes. No one loses. I might step in between and it could go either way, but saying there is always a loser on the other side is incorrect. Now you could argue that the farmer, hedging his crop, lost if the value fluctuated against his hedge, but he didn't really lose any money.
Regards - EZ
Re: Futures as Zero-Sum Game
[QUOTE]Quote from cnms2:
Options and future contracts are examples of zero-sum games (excluding
costs). For every person who gains on a contract, there is a counter-party who
loses.
cnms2,
Technically you are correct, however individuals and parties buy/sell options
(or futures) for different reasons. Say I'm the CEO of a large company with a
lot of shares and I want to protect my position from a sudden drop or even a
deteriorating stock price. I would buy protective puts, full well knowing that
the cost of the put premium is the cost of my insurance. We buy fire insurance
for our homes, but do we consider ourselves losers if our houses don't burn
down? I've always had a problem reconciling the zero-sum game concept with
options.
PS, Ever wonder how Larry Ellison managed to maintain his net worth of his 1+
billion shares of Oracle during the tech bubble? protective puts!
On Topic
While certain discussions and sub-topics within a thread often 'round out'
the information presented and / or augment the overall theme of transference,
others topics, and / or sub-topics, run the risk of sending the original intent
of the discussion way outside of the original bounds. While I welcome the many
contributions made and the commentary posted, I also want to avoid rehashing
discussions which already have their own home elsewhere on the Elitetrader.com
web site. For these reasons, and to maintain the standard flow of information, I
encourage anyone interested in continuing the 'Zero Sum Game' Debate to post
their comments in
this thread, rather than run the risk of losing focus on the knowledge
transference - long the hallmark of this Journal. A quick click on the link
above provides the reader with a glimpse of the debate - which raged on for 5
months.
Again, I in no way wish to stifle commentary: Quite the opposite. I simply do
not wish to run the risk of losing focus at the stage of the process. In this
light, everyone can hopefully see the wisdom of continuing the "Zero Sum Game"
Debate in its appropriate location.
- Spydertrader
__________________
My ES for today. Wow - what a day
ES Chart June 20 2007
ES chart using Quote Tracker
Nice day today.
Best Regards,
Interesting day. Made a lot of great trades, also got chopped up in a couple
spots. I also tried covering my PnL today and that did not work out quite as
planned. Ended up forgetting whether I was long or short, then cheering at a
sudden 3 pt drop thinking I was short when I was really long.
Cheers to fake money.
Today's ES Chart
06-20-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-20-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
YM U7 2 minute chart.
.
Hey ST,
I have a question about the 11:20 bar. It looks like a flaw to me. At first I
thought it was a potential pt 3 in the down channel so I got short, then price
BO'ed my RTL on increasing vol and since flaws can not happen on non-dominate
transverse. I thought we had a major trend change so I got long, but then price
tanked. That was a nice 1 2 combo on my P&L. Still managed to salvage the day
with 4.25 pts gross on 16 trades.
Any information you can give would be appreciated.
thxs
vjr
I have a question too Spyder, when you are through with vjr's
So, one very important thing we've learned recently is that the great majority
of FTT's occur after a VE, a flaw or both. And we also must have 3 pts
established FIRST before looking for a flaw and/or a VE. My question has to do
with what we do AFTER we have to fan out our channel (IE using the old pt3 or
old pt 1). Sometimes we have to increase the slope (for pace) and sometimes we
have to lessen the slope. Now after we fan out, do we now consider this a new 3
pt channel? Meaning do we see it as a new channel w/ our 3 pts already
established and now we must look for a flaw and/or VE before the next FTT?
Hopefully I articulated that well enough, if not I will retry.
Quote from vjr:
Hey ST,
I have a question about the 11:20 bar. It looks like a flaw to me. At first I thought it was a potential pt 3 in the down channel so I got short, then price BO'ed my RTL on increasing vol and since flaws can not happen on non-dominate transverse. I thought we had a major trend change so I got long, but then price tanked. That was a nice 1 2 combo on my P&L. Still managed to salvage the day with 4.25 pts gross on 16 trades.
thxs
vjr
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
from today's ET Chat...
on FTT, retrace of the retrace... etc.
Quote from Spydertrader (Jun 20, 2007 12:19:38 PM):
if you anticipate the TWO decision trees (continuation and change) and what you need to see for each
when you see it you'll still react but you will know before the future becomes the present what MUST come next
you'll be calm
you'll laugh and say, "I knew it"
Quote from Spydertrader (Jun 20, 2007 12:18:43 PM):
read dkm's post again from last friday - It will feel to you like you can 'see' the future
Questions
Quote from vjr:
I have a question about the 11:20 bar. It looks like a flaw to me. At first I thought it was a potential pt 3 in the down channel so I got short, then price BO'ed my RTL on increasing vol and since flaws can not happen on non-dominate transverse. I thought we had a major trend change so I got long, but then price tanked.
Quote from The Swordsman:
So, one very important thing we've learned recently is that the great majority of FTT's occur after a VE, a flaw or both. And we also must have 3 pts established FIRST before looking for a flaw and/or a VE. My question has to do with what we do AFTER we have to fan out our channel (IE using the old pt3 or old pt 1). Sometimes we have to increase the slope (for pace) and sometimes we have to lessen the slope. Now after we fan out, do we now consider this a new 3 pt channel? Meaning do we see it as a new channel w/ our 3 pts already established and now we must look for a flaw and/or VE before the next FTT?
__________________
Home work
Homework
Please feel free to make a list in relation to these questions, most of the
answers can be found in yesterday's chatlog. I believe you need to have a list
of these in your head when watching the market real time.
1. Anytime you have an FTT, what does an FTT mean?
2. Where will you ALWAYS see decreasing red volume?
3. What do you need for change?
4. What do you need for continuation?
I hope many of you will participate, it helps to have clear definitions in your
head.
ANYTIME you have an FTT what does the FTT mean?
I will start off with the first one
1. ANYTIME you have an FTT what does the FTT mean?
An FTT signals a change in sentiment, one trend ends, another begins. This
change could be on a tape, a traverse or a tree.
FTT = CHANGE
"Market acts the same way after every FTT (decreasing non-dom to trend line)"
Spyder
Keep it simple
Re: Home work
Quote from callmate:
Homework
Please feel free to make a list in relation to these questions, most of the answers can be found in yesterday's chatlog. I believe you need to have a list of these in your head when watching the market real time.
1. Anytime you have an FTT, what does an FTT mean?
2. Where will you ALWAYS see decreasing red volume?
3. What do you need for change?
4. What do you need for continuation?
I hope many of you will participate, it helps to have clear definitions in your head.
is this retrace of the retrace?
Very nice day so far.
I especially noticed the square odd harmonics very well. For example 10:35
(downchannel) we first have VE on the tape and then a square odd forming an FTT
and we go right up again.
same thing 11:55, square odd DT after VE.
Wish every day was like this.
regards,
Ivo
that 12:00 bar threw a monkey wrench on my gaussians of my down channel. now it doesn't match and i have a FBO on that 12:00 and price headed lower. i guess i need to change my channels. anyone else have this problem???
The 12:00 bar was reaction to the Philly Fed annoucemnent. I use this website
every morning to know what to expect during the day.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Here is the Federal Reserve calendar, also one site I check.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/calendar.htm
Notice next week.
-Mike
My charts are improving, my confidence and rational for entering and exiting
trades is improving and my evening debriefings are getting more specific. I feel
like I am really close to becoming a consistent winner.
I had the right intentions today and saw the dominant down trend transition into
a dominant tradeable up trend but my execution was a little off.
Today's chart
Regards
PS: subtract 5 hours to EST time
ES 21 Jun 07
Today's ES Chart
06-21-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-21-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
QuoteTracker swallowed my gaussians just when I was about to save the chart. No big deal, this gives me an extra gaussian exercise. Practice makes perfect.
Needed a beach day ! took a little r&r in sun and sand. This chart is all in hindsight. 2 min. ym on quotetracker. One thing that keeps amazing me, is when I feel I drew my channels well, I take a look at the moving average ,and it seems the m/a flows through the channels like water through pipes. Taking the path of least resistance. I know m/a follows price , for myself, just looking at it this way, helps to see the channels a little clearer. (not to mention the gaussians play a little role in all this ! )
Thought I'd resume posting my charts. Had a few rough days figuring it all
out, but beginning to see changes /ftt's much clearer.
For me, I find I do the best just using es price & volume, channels, ym price &
volume. For the time being, using Str/Sq just adds a layer that just overloads
the anticipation/decision making process, so I'll leave that for later. Although
I must admit that the PRV tool on the volume bars in QT look like a labor
savings device that anyone could use...
I am a little confused by the markings on the chart for bars 13:45 and 13:50. 13:45 you have marked as an FTT of a faster paced up channel but not as an FTT of your olive channel. Price clearly doesnt make it to the LTL of the Olive channel and its volume does appear to show any signs of flaw. So, how can we in realtime spot this one as a dip formation? I guess, I mean at what point do we know this isnt going to retrace down? Would we have to wait until we see the 13:55 and its black PRV vol higher or can we tell before?
Quote from The Swordsman:
I am a little confused by the markings on the chart for bars 13:45 and 13:50. 13:45 you have marked as an FTT of a faster paced up channel but not as an FTT of your olive channel.
Quote from The Swordsman:
Price clearly doesn't make it to the LTL of the Olive channel and its volume does appear to show any signs of flaw.
Quote from The Swordsman:
So, how can we in realtime spot this one as a dip formation?
Quote from The Swordsman:
I guess, I mean at what point do we know this isn't going to retrace down? Would we have to wait until we see the 13:55 and its black PRV vol higher or can we tell before?
__________________
I do understand that we must work through what must come next for continuation and what must comes next for change, I'm just a little hazy when the situation doesnt appear normal to me. For instance, the 13:45 bar from yesterday (from an Olive channel perspective) has good volume and price does move higher by one tick but does not touch the LTL. My mind doesnt think flaw but FTT. The next bar goes lower on dec red volume so I see that as trying to confirm the FTT. I do see that intrabar the 13:50 bar moved off the lows but still closed .50 lower than it open. The dip looks very obvious now after it happened but the situation leading up to it, didnt have me in the position to anticipate a flaw.
Chart for this morning.
Traded very concentrated and decided every bar actively to hold, exit or
reverse. Did most things right.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from The Swordsman:
The dip looks very obvious now after it happened but the situation leading up to it, didn't have me in the position to anticipate a flaw.
__________________
Today's ES Chart
06-22-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-22-2007
- Spydertrader
__________________
Great trading day today. Got a little confused on some of the gaussians in real-time. Here is my chart for the day - I was able to annotate real-time most of the day because I was off today.
Here is the chart.
Re: Today's ES Chart
Spyder,
Had a question on the dips at 14:10 & 14:40 on todays chart. The notation starts
on the first bar of the dip. These look like they are 3 bars long, start to
finish. Is that correct?
Regards - EZ
The market looks so clear, when you heed the signals.
Really enjoy doing charts on QT except when my lines disappear. all gaussians wiped out . so I did them over but did not color them for fear of another erase. ymu7 2minute. Good w/e everyone.
don't discard a CO channel so quickly, it could be a gold mine
Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Ezzy:
These look like they are 3 bars long, start to finish. Is that correct?
__________________
Being in the chat room whenever possible and reviewing the logs, going over
charts bar by bar on the discussion sequences, has made a significant
difference. The discussion of retrace of retrace triggered one of the better aha
moments. Started seeing flaws after ftt’s to signal hold/continue in retraces
and ftt’s after flaws in retraces to get back on the dominant side. Knowing, and
comfirming by "what must come next". This has been there the whole time just
never saw it like this.
You gotta love dips , either
fractal, they are frequent, reliable, potentially powerful and if followed by an
ftt, significant.
Recflecting on things I realized I was using very limited tools. For the most
part I have no idea what the str/sqz, time and sales, and DOM other than the
cumulative lean during active times, has been doing.. I need to screenrecord so
I can go back and see what the other tools were doing at these times, if I miss
them. That should bring me up to speed finally :?
I can not see all this intrabar on the ES yet and realize this is important. Had
to use the 2 min fractal a lot to get to this point. Something else to work on.
It is apparent now, correctly implementing the additional tools will bring the
lower resolution levels into focus.
Best to all.
Thank You for this Spyder.
Yesterday's Chart...
Best Regards and Good Weekend to all.
Just to share my 'post-it' about :
"What to I have to see next for 'Continuation' or 'Change' ?"
We should know all of this without thinking, but sometimes it's good to have the
chance to glance at it for confirmation.
If you note any mistakes or something that can be added please message me.
Best Regards,
Quote from Pepe:
Just to share my 'post-it' about :
"What to I have to see next for 'Continuation' or 'Change' ?"
We should know all of this without thinking, but sometimes it's good to have the chance to glance at it for confirmation.
If you note any mistakes or something that can be added please message me.
Best Regards,
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Spydertrader:
Inside the Red Circles.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
Really enjoy doing charts on QT except when my lines disappear. all gaussians wiped out . so I did them over but did not color them for fear of another erase. ymu7 2minute. Good w/e everyone.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Hi Pepe, I like your matrix, but wish to point something out to you.
Assuming each element of the matrix is defining change/continuation on the same resolution level, then dec red in an uptrend (for example) is CONTINUATION, not CHANGE.
It is change on a lower fractal or resolution level, but it represents continuation on the larger fractal.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Today's ES Chart
Quote from Ezzy:
OK, another question. The first is a dip in a downtrend, into an FTT. So we're heading up now. The 2nd dip doesn't quite have the soup bowl going on but by the price action it's a dip - again into an FTT. Change again. Is that the right read?
__________________
I am following this thread with great interest. It is THE BEST thread on ET
by far and will stay this way for while. The method is detailed and discussed so
good that it will draw a lot of people over the years.
I was thinking this weekend about self fulfilling prophecy of when too many
people start using a method it will halt to work. Let’s say we have 300 people
who perfect this method and gradually build up their size to 50 contracts.
Since the time fractal is the same for everyone, everybody will get the same
signal and will try to act upon it. We are talking execution of 15,000 contracts
at the same time. Does it worry anyone?
Thanks,
redduke
Quote from RedDuke:
I am following this thread with great interest. It is THE BEST thread on ET by far and will stay this way for while. The method is detailed and discussed so good that it will draw a lot of people over the years.
I was thinking this weekend about self fulfilling prophecy of when too many people start using a method it will halt to work. Let’s say we have 300 people who perfect this method and gradually build up their size to 50 contracts.
Since the time fractal is the same for everyone, everybody will get the same signal and will try to act upon it. We are talking execution of 15,000 contracts at the same time. Does it worry anyone?
Thanks,
redduke
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
Morning
__________________
Quote from makosgu:
FALSE! You can get sextuplets and they still will defer on action... The execution time will be normally distributed at best... And honestly, if you had that problem, you go to a different fractal, asset, market, etc...
You are putting the horse before the cart Duke. I suspect that the number of people who will end up trading 50 contracts will not be enough to move the markets. I think the statistics that apply to overall trading will also apply to those attempting to master this method. Very few people are emotioally equipped to trade successfully.
Awesome, awesome morning.
Quote from RedDuke:
But we all see an FTT, BO or FBO approximately at the same time on 5 min ES chart. The wall will be eaten at the same time for all of us, so the best potential entry will not be there for everybody. Of course there are other markets, but we are all taking about ES here, and my question is in relation to ES only.
__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)
DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING
I agree with your points guys, but thousands will try out of which hundreds will succeed. I have seen Jack posting on other threads that he demonstrated his method to MERC locals and blew them away. There is a big interest in this method, and once it is perfected, it is a matter of being disciplined to gradually increase the size to max that the market can handle. Seeing several AHA moments on this thread recently, there will be others soon, and within a year or so we will all be fighting each other for the best tick price, don’t you think. Once again, I am only taking about ES since it is the most liquid with daily moves large enough to capture them.
Quote from RedDuke:
I agree with your points guys, but thousands will try out of which hundreds will succeed. I have seen Jack posting on other threads that he demonstrated his method to MERC locals and blew them away. There is a big interest in this method, and once it is perfected, it is a matter of being disciplined to gradually increase the size to max that the market can handle. Seeing several AHA moments on this thread recently, there will be others soon, and within a year or so we will all be fighting each other for the best tick price, don’t you think. Once again, I am only taking about ES since it is the most liquid with daily moves large enough to capture them.
My viewpoint on sharing methods stems from my real world experience with sharing "best practices" in the business world. I freely shared my formula of success with anyone with an interest. Over the years, I arrived at the conclusion that even when I provided a detailed road map to success, the vast majority of people would not do the effort required to follow the path to success. Out of every ten people, One individual will determine they already have achieved a level of success, and require no additional improvement. Two will dismiss out of contempt that which they didn't understand. Two will actually evaluate the plan, but determine arbitrarily, "the plan won't work, or won't work for them." An additional two begin the journey but fail to travel beyond the initial first few steps. Two more progress a great deal along the path to success, but allow an outside influence to take them off track in some fashion. Out of the ten, we have one individual remaining, that possessed the required motivation, willingness to improve, and work ethic required of a successful individual. I have witnessed the same paradigm repeat over and over again within a community of traders.
As a result, I continue to share my methods for trading the Jack Hershey Equities Method knowing full well the vast majority of individuals reading will fail to make the journey.
ES 25 Jun 07
No probs until 14:30 to 15:10 - found that to be very tough. Lots of intrabar
changes.
Today's ES Chart
06-25-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-25-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
My ES chart for the day (6/25/07)...
spooz
have you guys experimented with using multiple moving averages.
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
Anyone interested that is using QT and having trouble with lines
disappearing. Wrote to them recently and they replied with a possible fix. Here
is what they had to say regarding this problem . . . Please get the update at
http://download.quotetracker.com/download/stocks.zip
and extract the contents of that file into the QuoteTracker folder, overwriting
the existing STOCKS.EXE file while QT is not running and let us know if you
still have the problem.
Mazel
Quote from Spectre2007:
have you guys experimented with using multiple moving averages.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
Anyone interested that is using QT and having trouble with lines disappearing. Wrote to them recently and they replied with a possible fix. Here is what they had to say regarding this problem . . . Please get the update at http://download.quotetracker.com/download/stocks.zip
and extract the contents of that file into the QuoteTracker folder, overwriting the existing STOCKS.EXE file while QT is not running and let us know if you still have the problem.
Mazel
Hello RedDuke,
I am glad you are following the thread and have the great q's that you do.
When you see dkm saying that a tough stretch occurred because of intrabar
trading opportunities, you are seeing what it is like when a person CAN
recognize an opportunity.
Think of a lot of people trading and some are really skilled. They are taking
trades that do what? They lessen the minority that they are facing.
What is the consequence? It is this. The minority is eaten way faster than if
the skilled trader were not there.
This bunch of skilled traders is creating what?
Well, in the frame of the contemporary psychology of the market at that time,
they are causing price to move a little faster against the minority who happen
to be on the wrong side of the market.
Lets say that the total group of players is about the same. As this phenomena of
our skilled crew is moving the market price a little faster by their taking out
the minority faster because there are more and more of us skilled traders doing
it after a while.
Thus we skilled traders all get to ride to the next turn up ahead a little
sooner and the turn probably isn't going to have too different a value than
otherwise.
What a bigger and bigger herd of similarily skilled traders do is create time
compression of cycling of the psychological limits of the market. This is an
expression of LTL and RTL staying about the same but the trip back and forth
from one side to the other takes less time. Thus there will be more trips per
day.
Personally, I like the interbar high volatility days and being in synch with
higly skilled guys like those who post their successes on here. We want to be
like the military fly guys who do demos at air shows. If we get enough moxey (my
fav drink at summer camp in the 40's) we will call ourselves the "Black Swans"
because of how we speed up the traverses.
Here is a thing to consider. Relax and take a deep breath. Just say to yourself
that you want to become a Blue Angel and do a few 7 g's. I had a limit of 5g's
in my glider in the afternoons, for example.
You decide to do SCT. You decide to take the flights. You fly with the finest
cause you know as you fly the more in the flight the better.
Right now, your ship is on the flight deck. You do not fly as yet. Join the
flight crew. When MAK says how it feels knocking down a Lexus in a morning, he
means it. When someone else says its unbelievable and/or astonishing, it is.
You can be a blue angel.
Market reversals are like 7g turns; you are only in the space for a moment and
then someone else makes a 7g turn next. Gravity is not something we have to
fight much.
I saw a guy trade at the expo and he sat through two perfect trades that John
Letto and the group I was squatting with took. then this guy put on a trade @ an
FTT that began a long level 3 Forest. He went short perfectly opposite US and he
set his stop on what we saw as a BO spot on the RTL. He got wiped as the
reversal (R2R) started. We held and were pushed by increasing volume as the
session came to a close.
After I commented to Letto on the fact that we did four trades together using
different methods and he had wiped the other guy all over the floor.
Someone wiped my badge and said something about next year. I think is was a Blue
Angel recruiter from the Expo.
Go for the experience of being a fully skilled SCT trader and have the same
feeling as a Blue angel pilot does. It is one fun trip to do the trades and see
the herd push you across the traverses all day long. When you get down to level
1 channels and take each reversal on internals and 2 pairs and walls, you are
flying with the most skilled and it is not a crowded place. If it does get
crowdede then you will just be using afterburners supplied by the minority to
get you there faster.
Get your five way safety harnesss adjusted (no ball busting on outside rolls).
Quote from dkm:
ES 25 Jun 07
No probs until 14:30 to 15:10 - found that to be very tough. Lots of intrabar changes.
Hi Spooz,
How do you use your volume by price indicator (blue histogram) on the left of
your chart?
Quote from spooz_trader1:
My ES chart for the day (6/25/07)...
spooz
Quote from jack hershey:
What a bigger and bigger herd of similarily skilled traders do is create time compression of cycling of the psychological limits of the market.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Hey DojiBB,
Quote from DojiBB:
Hi Spooz,
How do you use your volume by price indicator (blue histogram) on the left of your chart?
Harmonics
Jack
do you have anything to add to the discussion we had recently on harmonics? I,
and I'm sure others, would appreciate your comments on this topic beyond what
you've previously posted.
See:
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea...146#post1496146
As to the fear that SCT traders will end up moving the markets: that's a good
problem to have! But remember we are micro-trend anticipators - we need the big
money to be doing its thing to provide the carrier signal in which we operate.
Otherwise we'd fly into the hill in formation...
Quote from ang_99:
This is where I get confused also and lose the rhythm, during these high volatility areas. (which sucks because of the profit potential that is presenting itself.)
__________________
Quote from Pr0crast:
Much appreciated... Looks like all of our efforts in emailing them about this may have paid off. I had stopped drawing them altogether because I'd get so pissed when they disappeared on me... (same feeling you get when a power surge fries your computer and you lose a 20 page paper that is due tomorrow).
Quote from Spydertrader:
Try this:
You have an increasing Red Gaussian until price fails to head any lower (within the current Forest down channel). You have an increasing Black Gaussian until price fails to head any higher (within the current Forest up channel). You have a decreasing Red Gaussian until Price fails to head lower in the current Forest up channel. You have a decreasing Black Gaussian until price fails to head higher within the current Forest down channel. At some of these change points (increasing to decreasing or decreasing to increasing), you should find FBO's. At others, you should find FTT's. If you find you have made an error with your gaussians, change them. If you find you have missed a channel due to your revised Gaussians, add it.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
Look for FTT's at Peaks. Look for FBO's and BO's at the troughs. While not the only place to find these 'points of change,' many will occur at the Peaks / Troughs.
- Spydertrader
Hi Jack,
Thanks for your post. As always interesting and a lot to digest. As far the
Lexus total price within morning session, I know that it is totally possible.
Even with my current small Hang Seng trading size, I can easily afford monthly
payment within one morning session. It does take a lot of patience and
discipline to build up the account though. My ultimate goal is trading ES.
Regards,
redduke
My Chart for 6-25. I got about 2 hours in the morning of realtime and the rest is post market.
.
Quote from Pr0crast:
Much appreciated... Looks like all of our efforts in emailing them about this may have paid off. I had stopped drawing them altogether because I'd get so pissed when they disappeared on me... (same feeling you get when a power surge fries your computer and you lose a 20 page paper that is due tomorrow).
Quote from palinuro:
Unfortunately that fix doesn't work for the volume pane problem, though it seems to have fixed the rest.
Quote from Pr0crast:
You are telling me it doesn't fix the "disappearing gaussians" problem? What does it fix?
-Pr0crast
Hey guys,
This isn't a QuoteTracker thread, nor a software thread of any kind, and the
off-topic clutter is getting extensive. We have a Software Forum here
at ET so please take these seemingly endless conversations, problems, updates,
complaints, etc. to the proper place. Why not start a(nother) QuoteTracker
thread there, or even a "Software Used to Trade Jack Hershey Methods", that way
everything will stay in one place and this very long thread won't get
unnecessarily longer. Thanks.
ES 26 June 07
Amazing volatility for the summer
Today's ES Chart
06-26-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
06-26-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Some days its like shooting fish in a barrel.
Software Used to Trade Jack Hershey Methods
Quote from Magna:
Hey guys,
This isn't a QuoteTracker thread, nor a software thread of any kind, and the off-topic clutter is getting extensive. We have a Software Forum here at ET so please take these seemingly endless conversations, problems, updates, complaints, etc. to the proper place. Why not start a(nother) QuoteTracker thread there, or even a "Software Used to Trade Jack Hershey Methods", that way everything will stay in one place and this very long thread won't get unnecessarily longer. Thanks.
Some days, I feel like a fish in a barrel...
monitoring notes 26 June 07
My Chart for 6-26. I was able to go into work late - so I was able to do about 6 hours in realtime on west coast time.
Spydertrader, The greatest challenge I face everyday is still trying to
identify flaws in realtime. At times it seems to get a little clearer, then
there are days I am presented with a point of - possible flaw , not identifying
clearly, and exiting a trade because I had become a little lost at the moment.
For me, personallly, to become very efficient at recognizing the flaws, is
gaining the knowledge and skills to execute all I have learned , so that I may
see CONTINUATION clearly. It is the ability to continue, not to be
"shaken out " of the direction of price, that would be of great benefit to
myself. I think I need to understand the volume levels associated with flaws to
get a better grasp. Are there a set of volume levels with flaws that are used ,
just for guidline, not as an exact number, to help identify flaws? In a review
of the chat room from Tuesday, I had seen you mention something. If this does
exist, would you please direct me to where I may find such information. I make
every effort to strengthen all that is being taught here, as one day I may gain
a greater level of skill, from all I have learned.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
Spydertrader, The greatest challenge I face everyday is still trying to identify flaws in realtime. At times it seems to get a little clearer, then there are days I am presented with a point of - possible flaw , not identifying clearly, and exiting a trade because I had become a little lost at the moment. For me, personallly, to become very efficient at recognizing the flaws, is gaining the knowledge and skills to execute all I have learned , so that I may see CONTINUATION clearly. It is the ability to continue, not to be
"shaken out " of the direction of price, that would be of great benefit to myself. I think I need to understand the volume levels associated with flaws to get a better grasp. Are there a set of volume levels with flaws that are used , just for guidline, not as an exact number, to help identify flaws? In a review of the chat room from Tuesday, I had seen you mention something. If this does exist, would you please direct me to where I may find such information. I make every effort to strengthen all that is being taught here, as one day I may gain a greater level of skill, from all I have learned.
Chart for this morning.
regards,
Ivo
so far
ES 27 June 07
2007-06-27.ES.png
2007-06-27.ES.png
My chart for the day (6/27/07)
spooz
best start
just discovered this journal. Can someone advise best way to learn about the method used here. I sure would be appreciative. thanks. also, does this method work on the commodity markets, in particular grain and beans?
__________________
fup
Re: best start
Quote from FUP:
just discovered this journal. Can someone advise best way to learn about the method used here. I sure would be appreciative. thanks. also, does this method work on the commodity markets, in particular grain and beans?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Re: best start
Quote from FUP:
just discovered this journal. Can someone advise best way to learn about the method used here. I sure would be appreciative. thanks. also, does this method work on the commodity markets, in particular grain and beans?
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
.
Re: best start
Quote from FUP:
just discovered this journal. Can someone advise best way to learn about the method used here. I sure would be appreciative. thanks. also, does this method work on the commodity markets, in particular grain and beans?
Re: Re: best start
Quote from Bearbelly:
I know Im probably wasting my breath but I would strongly advise you to spend a couple of months on the first couple of pages. Do not jump ahead.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
.
ES 28 Jun 07
Quote from Tums:
check this day's chat log: http://www.elitetrader.com/ch/DigiC...t/20070620.html
start from: easybeat (Jun 20, 2007 2:53:30 PM)
or from my summary:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...021#post1507021
FTT=Change
Spyder
I have read and reread your Chat June 20, discussion on FTT=Change and what to
expect if indeed it is change or is it a fault and Continuation.
I have now had several days to put this into practice and have found that
discussion to be hugely beneficial.
I wonder if you could do the same type of thing for a FBO. I am just as confused
about the point 3's and FBO's as I was about the FTT. I know it would be most
helpful.
Thanks
WW
2007-06-29.ES
.
QT ate my gaussians again.
My ES for today. Nice day!
I'm taking "snapshots" during the day at key turning points to review later. For those who are interested, here is one at 13:59.
Quote from WGTrader:
I'm taking "snapshots" during the day at key turning points to review later. For those who are interested, here is one at 13:59.
My ES for today (6/29/07)...
spooz
Is the link to ftp site where the videos are still working? I tried it -
http://www.bluehost.com/cgi-bin/uft...eruniverse.info - just now and I get a
login and password but I'm not sure that it is the correct page. Instead of the
url I put in the page I end up on is
http://www.bluehost.com/cgi-bin/uftp/rejectPerms.html. That rejectPerms.html
makes me think that there is something wrong with the original link.
This is the first time I've tried to put in a link so I apologize if it doesn't
show up correctly.
Thanks,
Dan D.
Quote from whodat:
Is the link to ftp site where the videos are still working? I tried it - http://www.bluehost.com/cgi-bin/uft...eruniverse.info - just now and I get a login and password but I'm not sure that it is the correct page. Instead of the url I put in the page I end up on is http://www.bluehost.com/cgi-bin/uftp/rejectPerms.html. That rejectPerms.html makes me think that there is something wrong with the original link.
This is the first time I've tried to put in a link so I apologize if it doesn't show up correctly.
Thanks,
Dan D.
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
alternative file server
For those who haven't found it yet there is an alternative download page here. Sometimes downloads stop early--if that's the case just try it again til it works.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Dan, I just clicked on the first link and it comes up with the password window. I leave the password window blank, just click ok, and it takes me to the page with the download items.
Re: alternative file server
Quote from Pr0crast:
For those who haven't found it yet there is an alternative download page here. Sometimes downloads stop early--if that's the case just try it again til it works.
Re: FTT=Change
WW,
Quote from wwight:
Spyder
I have read and reread your Chat June 20, discussion on FTT=Change and what to expect if indeed it is change or is it a fault and Continuation.
I have now had several days to put this into practice and have found that discussion to be hugely beneficial.
I wonder if you could do the same type of thing for a FBO. I am just as confused about the point 3's and FBO's as I was about the FTT. I know it would be most helpful.
Thanks
WW
Thanks spooz,
Does it work similar to an FTT? For example, in an up traverse of a down
Channel, increasing black would mean the non-dominant traverse has become the
dominant traverse, or is increasing black only significant upon breakout.
Conversely, so long as red and black vol is decreasing or red is increasing the
origional trend remains in tact, even if we must fan the down channel. So when
price approaches the rtl of a down channel, and we enter on increasing red prv,
str/squ or a dom wall, increasing black would be our primary concern.
WW
WW,
I'm not Spyder but I'll take a stab at this...
For example, say price has either bounced off a LTL or formed a FTT in the
traverse of an "operating" channel. And volume has also just made a Gaussian
peak recently.
You anticipate seeing decreasing non-dominant colored volume take price back to
the channel RTL. As price approaches the RTL, you anticipate seeing increasing
dominant-colored volume to start another traverse and FBO. Or, you could see
increasing non-dominant volume (B2B or R2R) to BO the RTL and confirm the trend
change. Or, you could see decreasing dominant-colored volume that has you
thinking lateral. In this case, a BO should result in "fanning" a new point 3
and invalidates the current channel.
Maybe someone else can verify...
FWIW,
spooz
Sorry, new at this, I guess I should have posted Spooz's reply to my origional question in bold.
Quote from wwight:
Sorry, new at this, I guess I should have posted Spooz's reply to my origional question in bold.
WW,
Quote from wwight:
Thanks spooz,
Does it work similar to an FTT? For example, in an up traverse of a down Channel, increasing black would mean the non-dominant traverse has become the dominant traverse, or is increasing black only significant upon breakout. Conversely, so long as red and black vol is decreasing or red is increasing the origional trend remains in tact, even if we must fan the down channel. So when price approaches the rtl of a down channel, and we enter on increasing red prv, str/squ or a dom wall, increasing black would be our primary concern.
ES 2 July 07
.
Charts for today...enjoy.
Gaussian Confirmation Question
I have been consistently studying the Jack Hershey method for a little over
two months. I have read all the journals multiple times and have reviewed all of
the videos. Annotating channels is becoming second nature. The problem I am
having is drawing the correct Gaussian lines for the ES futures. I understand
the primary purpose of Gaussians is to confirm that the trader is trading within
the correct channel. They always match the correct forest size channel. They are
used to determine what is dominant and non–dominant. Gaussians indicate if there
are missing channels, and if there is an FTT approaching.
As volume peaks it will ALWAYS:
1. Hit the left trend line
2. Be an FTT
3. Create a volatility expansion
I understand these concepts and look for these indicators as I look for signs of
continuation and change in my Q-charts. I once again just watched Procrast’s
Gaussian Video and I am still having difficulty in drawing the correct Gaussian
sequences. Any advice on where else to look or how to annotate would be greatly
appreciated.
Re: Gaussian Confirmation Question
Quote from suriano3:
I have been consistently studying the Jack Hershey method for a little over two months. I have read all the journals multiple times and have reviewed all of the videos. Annotating channels is becoming second nature. The problem I am having is drawing the correct Gaussian lines for the ES futures. I understand the primary purpose of Gaussians is to confirm that the trader is trading within the correct channel. They always match the correct forest size channel. They are used to determine what is dominant and non–dominant. Gaussians indicate if there are missing channels, and if there is an FTT approaching.
As volume peaks it will ALWAYS:
1. Hit the left trend line
2. Be an FTT
3. Create a volatility expansion
I understand these concepts and look for these indicators as I look for signs of continuation and change in my Q-charts. I once again just watched Procrast’s Gaussian Video and I am still having difficulty in drawing the correct Gaussian sequences. Any advice on where else to look or how to annotate would be greatly appreciated.
Re: Gaussian Confirmation Question
Quote from suriano3:
.. I am still having difficulty in drawing the correct Gaussian sequences. Any advice on where else to look or how to annotate would be greatly appreciated.
Re: Gaussian Confirmation Question
Quote from suriano3:
I have been consistently studying the Jack Hershey method for a little over two months. I have read all the journals multiple times and have reviewed all of the videos.
...
Any advice on where else to look or how to annotate would be greatly appreciated.
Chart
__________________
moving back to sierra chart, I still have have 1 slot reserved for tich chart
Welcome back
I trust you had a good vacation. I also surmize that the class has been held
back for lack of progress. Thats fine, as I am just now, after five months of
study, beginning to consistantly have winning days. In fact 6 out of the last
seven days. I don't know if that is the slower nature of summer or I am actually
making progress. I hope the latter.
Thanks for your persistance, patience and continuance rather than change.
The above should have been addressed to Spyder
ES 5 July 07
I now go to bed wondering, what do I need for continuance, what do I need for change?
Today's ES Chart
05-07-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
07-05-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Re: Welcome back
Quote from wwight:
I trust you had a good vacation. I also surmize that the class has been held back for lack of progress.
__________________
My ES chart for the day (7/5/07)...
spooz
ES Chart 7/5/07
This is my first post. I understand that I still need much work with my Gaussians. I will continue to trace Spyders charts and read as much as possible. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
Re: ES Chart 7/5/07
Quote from suriano3:
This is my first post. I understand that I still need much work with my Gaussians. I will continue to trace Spyders charts and read as much as possible. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
.
Re: Welcome back
Quote from wwight:
I also surmize that the class has been held back for lack of progress.
Re: ES Chart 7/5/07
Quote from suriano3:
This is my first post. I understand that I still need much work with my Gaussians. I will continue to trace Spyders charts and read as much as possible. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
Re: Re: Welcome back
Quote from whodat:
What is this class?
Thanks
Hi,
I'm quite new to this thread. So far I have read through the previous thread
(that ended last year) and I am now somewhere in January in the current thread
(this one). I have also read Jack's document v2.2. Great that so much is
documented
At the moment I'm still trying to understand how the channels are drawn. The
approach seems to be (almost) 100% mechanical and I want to master this first
before I continue with the next subjects.
I have attached two examples that I have drawn and on which I would like to have
comments from the experts. For simplicity I have not used a real chart. Think of
the line as representing a basic tape channel.
...and questions #2
Quote from 1.6180340:
At the moment I'm still trying to understand how the channels are drawn. [/B]
Quote from 1.6180340:
...and questions #2
Quote from Spydertrader:
For those that have had difficulty drawing channels, bundlemaker put together this excellent video. It's based around drawing channels on a 5 minute chart, but the same principles apply to daily charts.
Channels.For.Beginners-bundlemaker.wmv
- Spydertrader
Quote from WGTrader:
Hey Golden Ratio,
Take a look at the material regarding gaussians.
Quote from WGTrader:
Hey Golden Ratio,
Take a look at the material regarding gaussians. You are trying to draw channels/FTT's irrespective of volume, when in fact they must match for the resolution you are observing. It may be a little clearer once you start looking at volume and price channels together. Good luck on the Journey!
Quote from 1.6180340:
Hi WGTrader,
I know that to spot an FTT you have to look at both price and volume. When I put 'FTT' in my drawing, please assume that I have come to that conclusion also based on volume, not just on the price. I left out the volume part for now just for simplicity, because I first want to make sure that I understand the channel drawing correctly.
From what I understand so far the channel drawing in itself is pretty mechanical and I thought that -apart from FTT's that become a point1- you can spot point1,2,3 based on price alone since they are the extreme points where tapechannels overlap.
Quote from nkhoi:
you are suffering from trying to nail down channel in shortest amount of time, relax re-read the 2.2 document especial the how to draw channel part then watch this video many times until you get what he trying to say
and in question #1, at 4) left side of channel is not broken the channel is in fact expands to a wider channel, see how you already inject your own interpreting.
Re: Re: Re: Welcome back
Quote from DojiBB:
If you read the 4th page of this thread you will see that there is a syllabus listed. This thread is the class. We are all students together.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&pagenumber=4
"In order to be taught you must listen; in order to learn you must practice."
Quote from 1.6180340:
..
Is the drawing wrong or you just don't like that I use the word 'broken' in the text? As you can see, I only use the annotiation 'BO' or 'FBO' on the right side of the channel, not on the left side.
Thanks again nkhoi.
The video links really does speed up the learning curve.
Just like bundlemaker, I guess I was too hyper.
I wanted to learn everything all in one day and tried to combine the different
methods I've learned in the past.
Nice video bundlemaker - applaud.
Quote from nkhoi:
you are suffering from trying to nail down channel in shortest amount of time, relax re-read the 2.2 document especial the how to draw channel part then watch this video many times until you get what he trying to say
and in question #1, at 4) left side of channel is not broken the channel is in fact expands to a wider channel, see how you already inject your own interpreting.
Do you have a video link on Gaussians too?
Quote from Ares1:
Do you have a video link on Gaussians too?
Thanks for the quick response nkhoi.
Quote from 1.6180340:
...and questions #2 ...
But what if point3 moves above point1?
How to continue from here? Does point2
becomes a new point1? What do the channels
look like at this point?
ES 7/6/07
Here is my second posting.
Thanks for all of the feedback.
Today's ES Chart
07-06-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
Today's YM Chart
07-06-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
__________________
My ES chart for the day (7/6/07)...
spooz
Monitoring notes for 6 July 07, including links to es chart posted throughout the day.
Quote from R/R:
hi, I'm going to paraphrase from pg 99 of Jack Hershey's "Channels for building Wealth, v2.2":
When you have a pt1 and pt2 in place, pt3 should resume (meaning start the R to L traverse of new channel) BEFORE reaching the same value as pt1.
If pt3 is above pt1 for an expected short trend, your pt2 becomes the new pt1 as you have indicated with the question marks. Then you would look for a pt3 above the new pt1 for a long trend.
As others have mentioned this must also synch with the Gaussians.
Quote from dkm:
Monitoring notes for 6 July 07, including links to es chart posted throughout the day.
Quote from 1.6180340:
Should I just wait without any valid channel until I get point3?
Quote from 1.6180340:
I have done another attempt to draw the channels after having arrived at this point (see attachment). However in that drawing the FTT is not the point1 of the new channel...
__________________
Quote from Spydertrader:
Sometimes, this is exactly what we must do - wait. Begin to learn to anticipate where the next point three has to form. Nobody can tell you how exactly you will 'see' the channels form. If you begin by annotating charts at the end of the day, you'll begin to 'see' what makes sense and what does not. Everyone learns this by 'doing,' and in time it all comes together. A review of dbphoenix's "Determining Trend Thread (linked at the beginning of the Journal) may help you to 'see' more clearly.
Many times, the FTT won't form the Point One of the new channel. For example, after a Left Trend Line 'bounce,' the FTT often forms the Point Three of the new channel.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
Sometimes, this is exactly what we must do - wait. Begin to learn to anticipate where the next point three has to form.
Here is an update of my index of links to Spyder's ES charts. The page numbers may not all be accurate due to post deletions, etc.
Here it is in .pdf format
Quote from 1.6180340:
Hi R/R,
Thanks for your answer.
Yes, I had also read this phrase in Jack's document and therefore indicated it in my drawing. However I'm a bit confused what happens next: ....
Quote from PointOne:
..
To Phi, I'd recommend working with real charts rather than inventing "what ifs". You think you have simplified things but you are actually making it more complicated. ..
..
- any subjective stuff is an overlay that comes with experience. N'est ce pas?
Quote from PointOne:
After a while you develop a feel for the gradient (pace) of the likely channels.
Quote from R/R:
Spyder has since answered your questions and I think your annotations and conclusion about using the LTL bounce as pt1 and the FTT as pt3 are correct, but keep in mind the resolution you are working in.
You have also asked about the RTL break and price re-entering the channel. In your search for mechanical rules just note that if they exist they apply to the "classic case" which doesn't occur every time. My advice is to learn principles that you can apply to your thought process as you do your analysis asking "what do I need to see next for ....".
So, if price breaks the RTL on insignificant volume what do you know?
My answer would be you know the non-dominant traverse (retrace) has continued past your original delineation and invalidated it, but not the trend. Therefore you must fan the channel wider (redraw it) grabbing a new pt3. Spyder often recycles the previous pt3 as his pt1 for this purpose.
Now what do you anticipate to validate your wider channel?
Price moving off your new pt3 in a dominant traverse on increasing volume.
OK, what if price had originally broken your RTL on increasing, significant volume? What do you know?
My answer would be that this action has confirmed the change of trend, an X2X Gaussian is created, and you expect the new direction to be dominant.
So now as PointOne has recommended look for these situations on the real charts for reinforcement of your understanding.
DKM - RE: Your Monitoring Notes
Are you making consistent successful realtime trades?
I ask this question because I was having trouble integrating the YM graphs with
my ES trades and now trade just from the ES chart and ES Volume. When I was
using the YM I was making trading decisions based on my false interpretation of
the YM chart.
I do understand that the YM is supposed to be used at
"critical points" but identifying the "critical points" was sometimes difficult
for me.
In your log notes there is alot that you are aware of and was wondering how you
trade/handle the conflicting signals that OCCUR everday.
Thanks for posting your log !
Quote from 8833broc:
When I was using the YM I was making trading decisions based on my false interpretation of the YM chart.
Quote from 8833broc:
I do understand that the YM is supposed to be used at
"critical points" but identifying the "critical points" was sometimes difficult for me.
Quote from 8833broc:
In your log notes there is alot that you are aware of and was wondering how you trade/handle the conflicting signals that OCCUR everyday.
__________________
Quote from 8833broc:
DKM - RE: Your Monitoring Notes
Are you making consistent successful realtime trades?
From another thread ....
My orientation is to get my reversal at the best time so I am doing market
orders twice as large as my position of holding.
The wall becomes important as you do more trades a day. At first few trades are
done to simply eminate risk. (4 to & a day). Then are you trade the traverses of
the ealrier leg only trading, you get to 15 or so trades a day.
The wal is appearing more than 15 times a day BUT if you are just doing turns at
the end of trend traveres , you only use the wall then.
It value is about 2 tickis more at each end of a traverse. since 15 are on the
able and reversing is done, this adds up to an additional 15 points a day.
Now let's bag though additional 15 points. Market orders are used.
because I sweep data sets, I use an additional picture of the DOM and it is easy
to also add the Wall to the price chart.
The Wall showing on the price chart is very relaxing. Price is approaching it
and your price annotations for the coming end of the traverse are there as well.
It is a nice picture since you see the reversal coming up in advance.
To be precise, it is handy to also have the DOM stalactites showning. these ten
values can be seen at a glance and the wall sticks out like a sore thumb. On my
stalactites it is the only full length stalactite. It sets the magntude of
people that are trying and planning on getting fills at specifc prices.
Think of all the people who picked a price and it is the largest set of orders
at any price on the DOM. There are usually several large oredrs involved. You
may be aware that some people do not get fills and then the market "goes against
them" and they often do not even make a profit later on since the market has
moved on.
Insert is way ahead of me on this with his supperior ways of trading and he is,
of course, reading this to prove he is better. Good work insert.
The wall is caused by an overlaod of limit orders at the same place. So it is
persistently there and insurpassable. At the same time, you will notice that the
ratio of DOM sides is changing and the side opposite the wall total is not as
large as the wall side.
Notice how the Best level opposite the wall gets eaten way.
I reverse at this time to let price walk my position away from the wall as the
next traverse begins in the opposite direction.
If you are watching the Stretch/Squeeze you will see that this leading signal
has occurred as well and it is showing the smart money is walking away from the
wall too.
The combination of price annotations (channels on three levels), the wall on
price chart, and the stalactites makes reversals fairly efficient. You also have
the YM leading the ES on turns.
By adding shells of data to the core data, trading first becomes effective
(making the turns on market orders), then as experience gives you skills you get
to be efficient.
It is effective to do 15 trades a day on traverses by reversing with market
orders. then you use S/S and Walls to become efficient by picking off 2 ticks
more at the end of each traverse. 2 ticks plus 2 ticks is a point each on
fifteen reversals a day.
If the contract margin is 500 dollars, then 15 points per unit of capital day
means that you can double down within the day about two thirds through the day.
This is a good situation since the settlement is about 1:15 everyday for Mutual
funds and quant driven money which we front run. So it means that the daily
value is 20 points or so a day.
The thread is about people who make the wall for those of us who use the wall to
make money. FIFO, etc.,is a topic that does not occur to me in any way. Why
would I want to be in a line 1 tick away from where price changes on turns? I
only show on T&S taking a trade opposite the minority who are being eaten away
as their limit orders on the wrong side of the market take them to the sidelines
on market fills of people going my way on the right side of the market.
Long ago when rotary dials held sway, there was less info. I luckily has a bunch
of coattailers following me. It feels the same today as the wall deflects the
price direction on a turn. a lot of people come in as shown by the DOM being
eaten after the turn from the wall.
__________________
Keep your friends close...
Well, that quote of Jack's comes from another pleasant thread, typical of ET.
This is just an observation: I asked Jack a straightforward, on-topic question
about harmonics a few pages back. He either does not see it or ignores it. But
he does get embroiled with people who don't want to learn from him.
Just an observation, that's all.
Spyder your binary post is excellent and reassuring. What are the rare
exceptions where it is not binary? (I guess low volume, no signal => brackets /
coin toss.)
(It's worth repeating: the finer tools do not create different signals but
rather they help you finesse the signals already / about to be showing at the
coarse level. This is great to know if you trade other markets without all
the fine level tools.)
Re: Keep your friends close...
Quote from PointOne:
This is just an observation: I asked Jack a straightforward, on-topic question about harmonics a few pages back. He either does not see it or ignores it. But he does get embroiled with people who don't want to learn from him. Just an observation, that's all.
Quote from PointOne:
Spyder your binary post is excellent and reassuring. What are the rare exceptions where it is not binary? (I guess low volume, no signal => brackets / coin toss.)
Quote from PointOne:
(It's worth repeating: the finer tools do not create different signals but rather they help you finesse the signals already / about to be showing at the coarse level. This is great to know if you trade other markets without all the fine level tools.)
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ES 9 July 07
Found today particularly tough. We seemed to spend most of the time going
laterally.
Today's ES Chart
07-09-2007 ES Chart
- Spydertrader
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ES 7-9-07
Today's YM Chart
07-09-2007 YM Chart
- Spydertrader
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Monitoring notes with accompanying chart updates.
qt wiped my gaussians twice. I got two extra exercise out of it.
Todays monitoring efforts.
Quote from Spydertrader:
From another thread ....
The Wall showing on the price chart is very relaxing. Price is approaching it and your price annotations for the coming end of the traverse are there as well. It is a nice picture since you see the reversal coming up in advance.
To be precise, it is handy to also have the DOM stalactites showning. these ten values can be seen at a glance and the wall sticks out like a sore thumb.
Quote from Vista:
Does anyone use what Jack is referring to here, "the wall showing on the price chart"?
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from yesterday's chat:
http://www.elitetrader.com/ch/DigiC...t/20070709.html
bundlemaker (Jul 9, 2007 2:59:37 PM)
Spy, if you are there and have a min I have a remedial Q for you
I called ftt early on 14:25 bar and it was just plain early, so Q is
what is earliest that change could be noted
Spydertrader (Jul 9, 2007 3:06:15 PM)
you called change right, you just didn't call the FTT right
FTT was the next bar
bundlemaker (Jul 9, 2007 3:06:44 PM)
yeah, it's those FTT's that occurr without a leg that screw me up
Spydertrader (Jul 9, 2007 3:06:48 PM)
depends on what tool you use as to how early you spot change
14:25 bar stopped exactly on a RTL of an up channel (pts 1 & 3 11:20 and 12:10)
so if you watched a wall form
or a Stretch
on that bar, you may have had a signal for change BEFORE the FTT bar
with finer tools you often get a signal 'earlier' than an FTT
bundlemaker (Jul 9, 2007 3:08:48 PM)
thks Spy, that helps
2 tapes made a forest channel
Today's ES Chart
Only Traded Half Day Today .....
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Spyder,
I've been having some difficulty identifying how price enters/exits flaws. I
know that price will exit the flaw(continuation) in the same direction that it
enters, unless there is an overriding change, like an FTT or FBO.
Is the DIP that is marked on your chart at 11:25-11:40 an example of an
overriding Ftt. I had thought that price had entered the flaw from above and
should therefore exit downward. But instead, price exited the flaw upward into
the Ftt before continuing down.
Could you explain how you saw this price/volume action unfolding?
Thanks,
phineas
Note: Since Flaws normally appear during a dominant traverse and this was a
non-dominant traverse, I had noted that this was a heads-up for a likely change
in the trend to down.
Many thanks to Pepe for his time and patience today. Thank you my Portuguese
brother
Any feedback is appreciated.
R2R or black volume?
Spydertrader, is this situation considered an R2R, based on the descending
price bars? Or this is just black volume, based on the ascending closings of
those volume bars? Thanks.
Monitoring notes 10 Jul 07
Re: R2R or black volume?
Quote from cnms2:
Spydertrader, is this situation considered an R2R, based on the descending price bars? Or this is just black volume, based on the ascending closings of those volume bars? Thanks.
Gaussians
I apologize for the delay in my response. I am travelling at the moment
(posting from the Phoenix Airport). I would consider your situation Red
gaussians, but more than likely what is present is an HVS type of situation -
unable to be accurately seen without dropping down a fractal. The only bar I
find confusing (circled red) appears to gap up then close lower than its open. I
assume the software settings use 'previous close' rather than, 'bar open' to
color the bars. Sometimes, one simply has to ignore the price and volume bars,
and draw in what makes sense.
- Spydertrader
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Re: Gaussians
Thanks.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Quote from phineas j. w.:
Could you explain how you saw this price/volume action unfolding?
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Quote from Spydertrader:
snip. . .
While it is easy to see how one could say, "I have an FTT followed by a lateral channel." Doing so has you mentally 'jumping fractals' without realizing it. Once the steep Olive channel ended, it was time to return (zoom out as I used to say) to the larger (Kelley Green) fractal.
Hopefully, focusing on the correct fractal (as in this example) provides a metric for alerting everyone as to when they have gone too far down the rabbit hole, and failed to come back out.
- Spydertrader
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Quote from Spydertrader: (re: to phineas j. w. 07-10-07 03:25 PM post)
Hopefully, focusing on the correct fractal (as in this example) provides a
metric for alerting everyone as to when they have gone too far down the rabbit
hole, and failed to come back out.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Spydertrader,
Thanks for clarifying the issue regarding staying on the correct fractal. In my
case, I never zoomed in to the steep Olive fractal, I had just stayed on the
Kelly green fractal.
I noted, that I had an FTT on the Kelly green fractal on the 11:20 bar,
confirmed by decreasing red volume on next two bars. Which then led into the
flaw, entering it in the downward direction. I had expected price to break down
from the flaw, but instead it broke upward and turned down quickly at the 11:40
FTT. I'm sure additonal study and screen time will help my monitoring skills.
For clarity, I'll attach my charts in the future along with any questions.
Phineas
Quote from Ezzy:
Spydertrader,
Great post as I find it too easy to jump resolutions. Looking at it as if the olive channel never existed (after price exits), then zooming out to return to the larger channel really clicked. Thx.
- EZ
Quote from phineas j. w.:
In my case, I never zoomed in to the steep Olive fractal, I had just stayed on the Kelly green fractal.
I noted, that I had an FTT on the Kelly green fractal on the 11:20 bar, confirmed by decreasing red volume on next two bars.
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ES 11 July 07
Quote from Spydertrader:
This is my point.
You had to have jumped fractals.
- Spydertrader
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I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Today's Chart
Regards,
There has to be some kind of prize to understand this thing. If anyone cares
to respond to the questions I would much appreciate it.
-guava
Quote from bundlemaker:
.. Finally, after months of work, I saw I was constantly jumping several fractals on virtually every bar.
point well taken. I was trying to
post the answer but I was stuck on 2 channels problem, turn out the solution is
to drop one channel when it stops working.
I am posting twice. the first time with a spread sheet of my trades and the
second post will include my chart.
I am trying to trade the forrest only just using the ES price and Volume. On
Short 2 I can see where I missed my entry point 2 bars sooner.
I would appreciate comments concernng my trades and if I traded the forrest
today. I have a tendency of thinking I am in
the forrest when i am really not.
Here's my chart. The purple circle is a big WTF area.
Quote from guavaman:
There has to be some kind of prize to understand this thing. If anyone cares to respond to the questions I would much appreciate it.
-guava
__________________
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you
realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Quote from 8833broc:
I would appreciate comments concernng my trades and if I traded the forrest today. I have a tendency of thinking I am in
the forrest when i am really not.
I trade forest level but I do not wait for rtl to exit. I found it was costing me too much money.I am presently targeting the ltl for exit. The steeper the channel the less chance it will reach the ltl so when it starts stalling I exit when I think I see the ftt. When price does reach the ltl I have found it to be a very good place to exit on average. Of course this is where Jack and Spyder reverse.
Quote from bundlemaker:
Gman, this is the way I would see it (granted in hind sight as I only did AM): 15:40 bar price was in it's right to left traverse. 15:45 bar is an inside bar (lateral) but on INCREASING volume, which suggests the market can't move higher. I would then think 15:40 was indeed an FTT. 15:50 bar is moving toward RTL, but FBO's. Then a new dom traverse begins.
I am no where's near confidently seeing it this way in real time, yet
---------------------------------------------------------------------Quote
from Spydertrader: 07-11-07 02:15 PM
This is my point.
You had to have jumped fractals. Now, you may have done so subconsciously. You
may not even realize you did. However, here is how you can prove it to yourself:
No FTT occurred at the time frame indicated on the Kelly Green fractal. We have
a Dip there - a rather large Dip, but a Dip none the less. The FTT occurred on
the steeper / faster fractal. Hence, if you saw the Price action as an FTT, you
jumped fractals. Whether you realized it at the time or not is immaterial. In
other words, you mentally went down the rabbit hole without even realizing it.
- Spydertrader
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Spydertrader
I do understand your point regarding jumping fractals. Seeing how easily one can
fall into this trap, I will focus on aligning channels with gaussians and
annotating action points on the correct fractal.
Thanks,
Phineas
Today's ES Chart
07-11-2007 ES Chart.
- Spydertrader
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Hitch
I originally labelled the attached Flaw a stall (due to the Price
Volatility), but after further review, I decided the attached Price action
provided the best example of a Hitch to date. Keep in mind, Hitches normally
have 3 tic or less volatility. The attached examples shows 4 tics of
volatility technically making it a Stall. However, for the
purposes of education, it fits the mold near perfectly. The Volume levels of the
Hitch appear skewed in this example due to End of Day Effects, but I am sure
everyone can 'see' the example listed below.
- Spydertrader
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